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NFL DFS

Week 4 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 3 was solid, albeit unspectacular for our Tight End plays. Gerald Everett was a casualty of an embarrassing offensive day by the Chargers, but volume continued to be king! Let’s find some value and upside for Week 4 and make some cash!

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 4 on DraftKings and FanDuel! Crazy to think that after this week, we are already almost 25% of the way through the NFL season!

Kye Pitts, Atlanta Falcons ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to officially invite you to Kyle Pitts SZN. He FINALLY saw some volume, with eight targets, and finished with a solid 5/87 line. The Browns have been around league average against opposing Tight Ends in 2022, and have yet to allow one to score. Kyle Pitts has yet to find the end zone this season. This looks like the week where both of those things change.

The Falcons are still a run-first offense, which limits Pitts’ upside a bit. They have run on just over 53% of their offensive plays so far this season. That said, volume is king, and a player with Pitts’ explosiveness and athleticism is going to produce when seeing more than a handful of looks.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

This may seem like point-chasing, but it sure didn’t look like it last Thursday against Pittsburgh. Njoku looked explosive, strong, athletic, and he absolutely bodied the Steelers’ D. After seeing just six total targets over the first two weeks, Njoku hauled in nine of his 10 targets for 89 yards and a score.

It seems crazy to say, but Jacoby Brissett has looked to be in complete control of the Browns offense. The Falcons have been the 31st-ranked team in the NFL against opposing TE, surrendering more than 20 fantasy PPG. This looks like a match made in heaven. Njoku is dirt-cheap on DraftKings too.

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)

There are three tight ends in the NFL with at least seven targets in every game this season. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and…Tyler Conklin. Yes, I know that Zach Wilson is returning this week, but that doesn’t change my stance here.

The Jets will look to get their young QB comfortable and in a rhythm early. Moving your full attention from cougars to football can’t be easy, but Wilson is up to the task. Conklin has been a consistent part of this offense in the early going, and has 10+ DK points in every game. He is a solid cash game target this weekend.

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

I’m going back to the well with Ertz this week. Despite a pedestrian 6/45 line against the Rams, Ertz still saw 10+ targets for the second straight week. On paper, Carolina looks like a tough matchup for opposing TE this season. Take that information with a grain of salt. They have faced the likes of Juwan Johnson and Tanner Hudson the last two games.

As I always say, volume is king, and Ertz continues to pull an elite target share. As long as DeAndre Hopkins is still out, Ertz needs to be on your radar. His upside is as high as any TE not named Andrews or Kelce.

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)

Without cheating, tell me which NFL team has allowed the most touchdowns to opposing TE? Yep. The New England Patriots. Most teams can get a pass after allowing a pair of scores to Mark Andrews, but Mike Gesicki and Pat Freiermuth found the end zone against the Pats in consecutive weeks.

With Davante Adams out of town, the Packers offense has struggled. There were some signs of life against Tampa Bay, as Romeo Doubs and Tonyan (6/37 on seven targets) saw consistent work. Adams ain’t walking back through that door, and we have seen Rodgers show confidence in his TE before. I’m a believer moving forward. My money is on New England serving up another score to keep their streak alive.

Needless to say, Mark Andrews is the top play, and if you can afford him, you will certainly want some exposure. Kansas City doesn’t play on the main slate, so you won’t have to worry about Travis Kelce.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 3, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 4 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Kye Pitts, Atlanta Falcons ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 3, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings/FanDuel DFS Quarterback Plays Week 4

Joe DiCarlo 3 years ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

We’re already a month into the NFL season and our quarterback plays have been studs! Check out our projection model, the numbers don’t lie…Hurts, Allen, and Burrow were all right here so stay tuned. This week is pretty cut and dry with few clear-cut paths to nailing this spot, so we may not want to force certain quarterbacks in our lineups. In a nutshell…we’re paying up for the Tomahawk Steak or paying down for the Roast Beef at quarterback this week plain and simple. As always tag me @jdicarlo78 or anyone else in the crew at WinDaily in our expert chat on Discord for any help…Now on to our Week 4 QBs!

Let’s check out our NFL Week 4 DFS Quarterbacks!

Josh Allen @ BAL ($8,400 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel)

Last week’s showdown in Miami was not all the hype we expected for fantasy, but Allen still got his rocks off. He’s one of the most obvious choices but we can’t afford to miss in cash games. We can’t go wrong with Allen in another smash spot against a fraudulent Baltimore secondary, who has already hemorrhaged 1,100 passing yards and 7 touchdowns. Buffalo’s golden boy has been averaging over 30 fantasy points per game since Week 1 and is in line to serve up another 30 burger this weekend.

Lamar Jackson vs. BUF ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel)

Same game, Lamar is the quarterback 1B of this potential gunslinger showdown in the AFC. Action Jackson had a slow start but lately, he’s been a man possessed. Averaging over 40 DraftKings points for the last two games, Lamar is leading the league in touchdown passes (10) and QB rating (119). He is another effortless decision this week at quarterback.

Jalen Hurts vs. JAX ($8,2000 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel)

Who greased Roger Goodell for Philly’s season schedule? Hurts gets another walk in the park in Week 4 with the Jags. The Eagles have emerged as an NFC contender behind their third-year signal-caller, leading the position at yards per attempt (9.37) and rushing touchdowns (3). Jacksonville has already surrendered 805 passing yards and 5 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year, Hurts will get work in again at home.

Jared Goff vs. SEA ($5,900 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel)

Goff’s been pretty consistent with a modest stat line to start the season. But as his play improves, his salary starts creeping up too. The volume is back with a total of 748 passing yards and 7 touchdowns on the season, Goff can beef up those numbers even more with Seattle. Running back D”Andre Swift is set to miss some time which may lead to Goff needing to throw, even more, making his target machine Amon Ra even more fantasy reliable.

Mitch Trubisky vs. NYJ ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel)

Risk it for the Biscuit! We will just have to keep picking on those weak Jets, and with Trubisky why not?! Too risky you think? No way not at his salary, he can get there with his legs alone with his value. Mitch knows his days are numbered in Pittsburgh with Kenny Pickett on deck, so expect him to go out at home and put on a good show. Now his stats (569 PA YDS./2 TDs/1 RUSH TD) are not the greatest, but from a DFS standpoint, he allows you to have the cap to stack in on a Baltimore/Buffalo type of game.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week DFS Quarterbacks article we are just getting started in Week 4. There will be tons of content covering each position all week, cash games and tournaments, as well as plenty of articles, videos, and podcasts so check in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be up on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning live stream to keep up to date with all the last-minute news. Hit me up in our Discord chat or on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 always here to help fellas…. Let’s get this money!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 3 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

One of the oldest rivalries in the NFL is the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. More than six decades of blood, sweat and tears have gone into this one. That said, this is a different Cowboys with Cooper Rush under center. The good news is that the spread is sitting at -1 for the Giants, but the bad news is the total is just 39 points. Let’s find ourselves an angle to make some cash on Monday Night.

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

MVP/Captain Plays

Saquon Barkley, Giants

Barkley threw back the clock to 2019 in Week 1, racking up 194 total yards and a touchdown on 24 touches. Week 2 wasn’t quite as kind to him, as he totaled 88 yards, but yet again had 24 touches. Barkley has elite usage and volume in this offense, and he is the most expensive player on this slate for good reason.

The Cowboys have allowed 100 rushing YPG in the young 2022 season. Barkley is the focal point of this offense, and needs to be one of your first targets on this slate. The Giants are one of just six teams averaging a rushing rate north of 50% through two games in 2022. Pick up your shares of Barkley for MNF.

Noah Brown, Cowboys

Call me crazy here, but Brown is worth a shot at your bonus spot on Monday Night. CeeDee Lamb will undoubtedly draw ownership, and rightfully so (don’t forget to get yourself some exposure to Mr. Lamb also). I’m taking some shots with Brown up top. He has played at least 85% of the offensive snaps in each game this season. Michael Gallup is still questionable to return for this one, but I don’t expect a huge drop off in snaps for Brown right away.

He has posted a 10/159/1 line on 14 targets through two weeks. He is a low-owned option for you to throw into your bonus spot to differentiate your lineups.

Daniel Jones, Giants

Listen, I know most of you aren’t believers in Jones as a franchise QB, but that doesn’t matter here. Jones has yet to break even the TWO-hundred yard mark passing in 2022. This one is likely to be low-scoring, but Jones adds the extra dimension of rushing floor and upside. He has rushed 16 times for 46 yards in 2022, but he is always a threat to vulture a goal-line score or break a long run. Another option with potentially low-ownership in the bonus spot, Jones could pay off big if things break his way.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Tony Pollard, Cowboys

I may be the only person who lives near THE Ohio State University who thinks this, but Tony Pollard is better than Ezekiel Elliott. Through two games in 2022, we are seeing it at times, but this may just be the night that he breaks out. Pollard is averaging just 48% of the offensive snaps, but he was efficient against the Bengals after a disastrous game vs Tampa Bay in the opener. Pollard carries nine times for 43 yards and a score, while hauling in four of seven targets for another 55 yards. Dallas has only had ONE rushing attempt inside the five yard line in 2022…and that ball went to Pollard. He scored. Zeke is a fade for me. I wouldn’t mind a shot or two on Tony in the bonus spot. FREE TONY POLLARD!

Sterling Shepard, Giants

As mentioned above, the Giants have almost a true 50/50 run/pass split, so I won’t be going too heavy on the passing game. However, Shepard is the target I’m after when Jones is throwing down the field. Shepard had 10 targets last week and played on 88% of the offensive snaps. If any non-Barkley option puts up a big receiving number for the G-Men, Shepard is your guy.

Brett Maher and Graham Gano

Low total game with two offenses that struggle to score points or finish drives. This game is a great spot to target kickers. These two are a combined 7/7 to start the season. Take advantage of some sputtering offenses in this one and lock in some points in the kicking game. I’ll be throwing both in a few lineups, but will have exposure to at least one in most lineups.

A few others to consider are David Sills, who played 92% of the offensive snaps for the Giants last week. He seems to have surpassed Kenny Golladay on the depth chart, and Kadarius Toney is hardly seeing the field either.

Daulton Schultz is still questionable for this one, and if he misses or is limited, Jake Ferguson needs to be on your radar. He played more than half of the offensive snaps in Week 2, and is just $200 on DraftKings. Don’t expect a break out performance by any means, but he is a free square that could crush value.

Tanner Hudson and Daniel Bellinger each saw opportunity against Carolina, and although Bellinger found the end zone, he saw only the lone target while Hudson saw three. Hudson is $2,800 cheaper on DraftKings, and would be my TE punt of choice between the two.

I’m prioritizing the Cowboys defense over the Giants here, and Micah Parsons is the main reason why. He is a game-wrecker, and is easily the MVP of this team in 2022. He is among the early leaders for DPOY, and for good reason. The Cowboys defense carries a lot more upside here.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 3 Showdown SNF DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Sunday Night Football brings us a solid matchup this week with the 49ers traveling to the altitude in Denver to take on the Broncos. San Fransisco is a 1-point favorite with a total hovering around 44.5 points. Russell Wilson and company are off to a very slow start offensively, and Jimmy Garoppolo is back under center for the Niners. Let’s get to it!

MVP/Captain Plays

Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($17,100 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

Samuel is the most versatile player in this game, and quite possibly in the entire NFL. He is the focal point of the 49ers offense. With Trey Lance and Elijah Mitchell both on the IR now, Deebo should see an even bigger role.

His numbers have been pedestrian through two games in 2022, but terrible weather and game flow have played a part. He has 13 targets and 12 rushes across two games, and he needs to be one of the first players you consider on Sunday Night.

Denver has been tremendous defensively, but I’m taking the numbers with a grain of salt. The Texans and Seahawks are two of the lesser offenses in the NFL. I’m expecting Deebo to break out in a big way against the Broncos. Eliminating the threat of Trey Lance stealing goal-line touchdowns raises his ceiling significantly. Fire him up across the board.

Javonte Williams, Broncos ($15,000 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

The 49ers aren’t a desirable matchup for any RB, but I’m bullish on Javonte in any matchup. He is averaging 11 carries and eight targets per game in 2022. Melvin Gordon is always going to take some touches away, but check this out. Here’s a list of players who have more red zone receiving targets than Williams:

Garrett Wilson

JaMarr Chase

Justin Jefferson

That’s it.

There is certainly a lower floor here due to the tough matchup and the presence of Gordon, but Javonte has big upside here in what should be a competitive game throughout.

Jeff Wilson, Jr., 49ers ($12,000 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

Volume is the name of the game tonight, and with the injury to Elijah Mitchell, Wilson fits the bill. He saw 18 carries and two targets in his first game as the lead back, totaling 103 yards. As you may have noticed so far, I’m targeting the running game more than the passing game in this one. As we say, you have to take a stand somewhere. I’ll keep the volatility of some of the other pass catchers for my FLEX/AnyFLEX spots.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

George Kittle, 49ers ($7,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

Simply put, Kittle is just too cheap here. The 49ers have been very cautious with their star TE, holding him out of the first two games. All indications are that he could have played last week, so he should be a full-go here.

Kittle has a great rapport with Jimmy G, and could certainly end up being the top scorer in this one. That said, I’ll be using him in the FLEX spot, as his floor leaves plenty to be desired. His last six game logs look pretty gross:

2/27/1

4/63/0

1/18/0

5/10/0

1/29/0

2/21/0

Kittle had three games in 2021 with 100+ yards, so the upside is there. I’m just not convinced that this is the spot for a ceiling game.

Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($9,400 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)

Aside from one long touchdown pass from Russell Wilson to Jerry Jeudy, Sutton has been the lone bright spot in the passing game. He has totaled 194 yards on 11 catches (18 targets) through two games. With Jeudy (ribs) and KJ Hamler (knee/hip) both banged up, he could be relied on even more in this one. Both are expected to play, but I’ll be looking elsewhere. Sutton is another volume play here.

Brandon McManus, Broncos and Robbie Gould, 49ers

Low total, high altitude. You would be crazy to not consider both kickers in this one. McManus is the preferred option here for me. I would not be the least bit surprised to see both with 10+ points in this one.

Other options to consider

Both defenses are in play here, but neither Wilson or Garoppolo are turnover prone, so I’m not expecting big outputs on that end. I’ll have a few shares, but won’t be prioritizing either one.

Kyle Juszczyk is only $1,400 on DraftKings, and is my preferred punt play in this one. He will see hardly any touches, but is a touchdown vulture. He found the end zone last week, and has three targets on the season (zero catches). True floor of zero, but don’t be surprised to see his name on your screen with “TOUCHDOWN” at the same time.

Albert Okwuegbunam had zero catches on two targets last week. He’s another cheap option to fill out your lineup. He has been the victim of an offense with very little passing game rhythm. His floor is low, but he could pay off nicely tonight.

I’m taking my chances on a primary fade of both QB in this one. I see the argument for either one, and will mix in one lineup with some QB stacks. Neither is a priority with all these high volume options elsewhere, just waiting to take all the touchdowns.

Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 3 NFL DFS GPP Lineups

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

A big miss on my end to not discuss the Baltimore/Miami game last week. Congrats to those who played it! Now let’s get right back at it for Week 3. To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a potential splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

There’s no denying the popular plays of Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are fantastic. If you’re into them, I will not talk you off of them, but I’ll likely be keeping my exposure to them in mass multi entry contests and cash games. In single entry or 3-max GPPs, here’s where I’m looking to go:

Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD)

A sub-5% owned Mahomes in a dome, against a banged up Colts’ defense that runs Cover-3 coverage at a league high rate is all systems go for me and the AETY Model. On a slate with Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, we need upside if we’re going to go elsewhere and Patrick Mahomes offers just that and little-to-no ownership.

Stacking Options: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman
Run-Back Options: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.

Matthew Stafford ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Getting exposure to the highest expected tempo on the slate is more times than not going to work out in your favor and pairing that with a matchup against one of the worst defenses in football certainly should help. The AETY Model projects Stafford and the Rams for the second highest passing yards on this slate (second to Mahomes) and there’s no ownership going to Stafford (sub 5%).

I prefer to limit my Stafford exposure to a 3-max type of contest, but I have no problems with you taking that route in single entry. The 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA) is going to get torched and as long as you think Kyler Murray and the Cardinals can keep this one close and up-tempo, Stafford should be in for a field day.

Stacking Options: Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Tyler Higbee
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Greg Dortch

Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,500 FD)

Simply put, the Bengals are damn-near in “must-win” territory and what better time for Burrow and the Bengals to absolutely light up the worst secondary in the NFL? The Jets dead-last in pass defense DVOA and have had an insanely hard time generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This is a statement game for Burrow and the Bengals. I love the buy-low spot being offered by these sites for my NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Stacking Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins
Run-Back Options: Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Tyler Conklin, Michael Carter

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Marcus Mariota (great value)

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

This is a week where NO-ONE is going to pay up at running back (David Montgomery, Dameon Pierce, and Leonard Fournette leading the pack in ownership by a mile…and for good reason). I’m not sure that I will either due to the lack of production from high-end backs so far this season and my appetite to load up these top tier wide receivers. If you want to guarantee yourself a nice way to get different, it’s paying up at RB.

Jonathan Taylor ($9,000 DK / $9,400 FD)
Derrick Henry ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD)
Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD)

Miles Sanders ($5,500 DK / $6,800 FD)

Sitting right around 10-12% in current ownership projections is one of the most talented running backs who’s starting to break away with the lead running back role in Philadelphia. Sanders offers us the perfect leverage off of Jalen Hurts chalk (Hurts may very well have a great game), but Miles Sanders projects as the 4th best value on the slate according to the AETY Model and goes up against the worst run defense on the model and 2nd worse in DVOA. Let’s ride.

Rashaad Penny ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

Kenneth Walker being activated and used a bit in both the rushing and passing game downgrades this play quite a bit, but the lead back in Seattle is still Rashaad Penny until further notice. I somewhat like this Atlanta/Seattle game and think it can be a low-key, no ownership type of gross shootout. While everyone is going to play Dameon Pierce, pivoting down to Rashaad Penny (who the AETY Model likes almost just as much as Pierce) may be a 1% owned play that can make a difference in NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: Devin Singletary, Joe Mixon, David Montgomery

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

We don’t need to discuss how great of plays Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill are. Considering ownership, I’d rank them Jefferson, Kupp, Adams, Hill, Diggs. You know they are fine plays and should feel confident loading them in your lineups or game-stacks.

Ja’Maar Chase ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD)

The ownership projection is sub-3% right now for Ja’Maar Chase… I’m in. Chase should have an absolute field day against this Jets’ secondary and offer us a great low-owned pivot off of the chalkier studs listed above.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)

I spoke all summer about Matt Ryan WR1’s and won’t stop now. I absolutely love the Chiefs’ side of this game and would start my run-back in those stacks with Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman moves all around the formation and will have a positive gamescript as soon as the Chiefs march down the field and score twice. We know Frank Reich will try to avoid this game becoming a shootout, but I doubt they can they can keep the Chiefs contained for long.

Gabriel Davis ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

While the world world rushes to load up on Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs stacks (there’s no shame in that, it’s been the nuts all year long thus far), I’ll be prioritizing the cheaper, un-owned wide receiver to ensure I get a strong piece of this Bills’ offense in Gabe Davis. Xavien Howard will likely travel with Stefon Diggs (advantage still to Diggs) but at that ownership, I’ll take the stance that Howard does enough to limit the ceiling of Diggs and let hope for a big game out of Davis against Nik Needham, Keion Crossen, and rookie, Kader Kohou.

Drake London ($5,800 DK / $6,200 FD)

London is a true WR1 who currently sits 4th in the NFL for WR target share. The price is a sham and the matchup is absolutely sexy (Seattle grades 30th in pass defense DVOA). I mentioned my small interested in Rashaad Penny earlier and I’ll definitely prioritize Drake London as a mini game-stack or solely as a one-off in NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Tee Higgins, Marquise Brown, Tyler Lockett, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Treylon Burks, Mecole Hardman

NFL DFS GPP Punt Plays

Mack Hollins
Nico Collins
Greg Dortch
Scotty Miller

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,900 DK / $7,800 FD)

A 5-10% owned Travis Kelce against a banged up Colts’ defense who grades 31st in DVOA against opposing tight-ends…

Darren Waller ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD)

Without Hunter Renfrow, Mack Hollins and Darren Waller got a significant upgrade in the AETY Model. My only concern here is the expected pace of play, but the enhanced workload and price in NFL DFS GPP lineups makes Waller a top-tier tight-end this weekend.

Dallas Goedert ($4,700 DK / $5,500 FD)

The price is way too cheap for the number two passing target in one of the most highest scoring, up-tempo offenses in the NFL. The Eagles are doing a fantastic job putting Goedert in plus matchups against linebackers and and nickel corners. If you’re going to stack with Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert and AJ Brown are the clear options here.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Irv Smith Jr., Tyler Conklin

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACKS REPORT – WEEK 3 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 2 brought us moderate success at the Running Back Report. CMac ended up scoring the 2nd highest points at the RB position but it was only 19.8 DK points which produced 2.2x value. And we hit on the top RB in Tier 2 as D’Andre Swift recorded 16.70 DK points which was good for 4th most on the card. The running backs were all cold last week except Nick Chubb but I expect that to change this weekend as we have some intriguing matchups to dissect.

Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.

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As for my strategy this week, I like the top RB’s as 4 of the 6 highest salaried backs have matchups against the bottom 3rd of the league in rushing fantasy points allowed. I also think there is value popping in Tier 3 that could give us an advantage for being able to spend up for a higher priced WR.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JONATHAN TAYLOR $9000 DraftKings $10,000 FanDuel

Ok so Jonathan Taylor finally imploded and sent many fantasy owners into an early downward spiral. But truth be told, it all starts with Frank Reich and his game plan. In the first half, 15 of the Colts first 21 plays were passes. And after seeing their 5 drives end in an interception and four punts, they headed into the tunnel down 17-0. In total, Taylor saw just 9 carries and 1 catch. On his 10 touches he did get 63 yards which was good for 6.3 per play. But I guess Reich thinks Matt Ryan, with no Michael Pittman, was a better option against the Jags than his All-Pro Running Back.

So take that information and tuck it away. Because I think there will be a drastic shift in the game plan this week when the Colts host the Chiefs. Indianapolis is in a big spot in Week 3 as they have 0 wins after facing the two worst teams in their division. Expect JT to get a heavy dose on the ground and more importantly through the air. In 2 weeks, the Chiefs have allowed 20 receptions to RB’s including 9 to Austin Ekeler last week. I think Taylor has a very juicy matchup and will be one of the top scoring RB’s this week.

DEREK HENRY $8100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

It’s time for the Titans to get back to their roots and run the ball. In the first 3 quarters of this NFL season, Derrick Henry had 19 carries for 80 yards. In the ensuring 5 quarters of Titans football, he had 15 carries for 27 yards. That has to change if the Titans want to turn around their season. And that should start on Sunday as they get the Raiders who are 16th in run DVOA this season. So far this year, the Raiders have allowed 110 rush yards/game. Last week alone they allowed 143 yards to the Cardinals in a disappointing defeat. So I think there is value in the Titans RB this week and I think we could see a classic “King Henry” game this week against Las Vegas.

AUSTIN EKELER $8000 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

The Chargers star RB has had a slow start on the ground as he’s averaging less than 3 yards per carry. But he has 13 receptions in his two games which has got him to a solid game average of 14.8 DK points. So we’ve seen decent return from Ekeler even though he has just 75 yards rushing and 0 TD’s. However, he’s back home this week and faces an opponent that I think he can exploit. Forget last week’s performance by the Jags D, which most DFS players will focus on. Remember Week 1 when the Jags allowed 20 DK points to Antonio Gibson which included 7 receptions. I do and think Ekeler can give a similar performance especially once Herbert opens up the field like Wentz did in Week 1 against the Jags.

JOE MIXON $7600 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

Mixon is back in the Tier 1 list and for good reason. The Jets are allowing 123.5 rushing yards per game and allowed Nick Chubb to put up the highest RB performance in Week 2. Mixon is still without a TD, but he has 56 touches in 2 games and is averaging 16.4 DK points per game. Attack this matchup with confidence as the Jets have a soft defensive front and the Bengals need to establish a ground game to keep Burrow upright for once this season.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

D’ANDRE SWIFT $7200 DraftKings $8200 FanDuel

Swift is at the top of our Tier 2 list of RB’s based on his early season usage and opponent. First, D’Andre Swift has scored the second most points for RB’s this season trailing only Nick Chubb. And that’s with limited action last week due to an ankle sprain. As for his opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, they are allowing 137 yards rushing per game and are 18th in points allowed against RB’s. And this game projects as the second highest scoring game on Sunday with a total set at 54 points. So keep an eye on his injury status but if healthy this is a great spot for Swift.

ANTONIO GIBSON $6400 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

Antonio Gibson is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry so far this season. But he is receiving 59% of the snaps and has touched the ball 37 times in 2 games. He faces the Eagles this week who are allowing the 28th most points to RB’s on the season. The Eagles stifled Dalvin Cook last week but that was because he saw the ball just 6 times. Last year Gibson played 2 games against the Eagles and averaged13.8 DK points. I think we’re in line for a similar output and if he adds a TD to that then we’ll have a steal at this price.

JAMES ROBINSON $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

It’s clear that James Robinson is the #1 ball carrier for the Jaguars. He ran the ball 23 times last week against the Colts and scored 15.8 points. He is getting all the carries near the goal line and has 3 total TD’s this year. The Chargers have not given up a lot of yards on the ground (78.5 per game) but they have allowed the 17th most points to RB’s. This game could be high scoring which would put Robinson in line for a lot of touches. The only downside to his play this week is whether the Chargers start the game with margin and force TLaw into a big passing game.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

DAVID MONTGOMERY $5900 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel

The Bears RB is one my favorite plays this weekend as he gets to lineup against the Houston Texans. The Texans were 31st against the run in 2021 and they’ve started 2022 on a similar note. Houston is allowing 163 yards rushing per game and the 30th most points to RB’s. Montgomery has 37 touches in this first 2 games and I see that number going above 20 this week. With that being said, I project Montgomery for a top 10 RB production this week.

MILES SANDERS $5500 DraftKings $5900 FanDuel

There were a lot of question marks around Miles Sanders coming into the season. He was banged up and the Eagles had stocked the backfield with Gainwell, Scott and Sermon. But we can put to rest a backfield by committee approach for the Eagles because they are clearly feeding Miles Sanders. Sanders has 30 of the 45 rush attempts (66%) by Eagles RB’s. And he’s averaging 5.9 yards/carry. This week he gets to face the Commanders who are allowing 157 yards rushing per game (28th in the NFL). Last year, he faced the Commanders once and had 131 yards on 18 carries. This is a great spot and a great price for the Eagles lead RB.

BONUS PICKS

I do like DAMEON PIERCE ($5000 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel) against the Bears. Pierce received all the carries last week for Houston and seems to be in position to be the lead RB for the Texans. The Bears allowed 203 yards rushing to the Packers last week including 132 to Aaron Jones.

RB PROP BETS

We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines. We are 2-2 in this spot so far this season.

Now that you finished reading the NFL RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACKS REPORT – WEEK 3 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

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TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JONATHAN TAYLOR $9000 DraftKings $10,000 FanDuel

DEREK HENRY $8100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

AUSTIN EKELER $8000 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

JOE MIXON $7600 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

D’ANDRE SWIFT $7200 DraftKings $8200 FanDuel

ANTONIO GIBSON $6400 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

JAMES ROBINSON $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

DAVID MONTGOMERY $5900 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel

MILES SANDERS $5500 DraftKings $5900 FanDuel

BONUS PICKS

RB PROP BETS

We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines. We are 2-2 in this spot so far this season.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

What a start to the NFL DFS Cash Game Season, 2-0! It was a pleasure to see all of the green-screens on Twitter and Discord AGAIN last week. Everyone seemed to have smashed their cash games and we’re here to do it again in Week 3! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, plenty of value at the running back position. Use it! (Everyone is going to pay-down at RB this week… just something to think about in your NFL DFS GPP lineups)
Loaded slate of Quarterbacks… don’t get cute!
Some injury concerns we will keep an eye on. Check back Sunday!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Honestly, the QB position is relatively easy this week for your NFL DFS cash games. Last week was gross, but this week there are a ton of great choices. We’re going to want a QB that has dual-threat upside or someone that can throw for 300+ yards and 2 touchdowns. I’ll simply list them below as you know what to do:

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)
Jalen Hurts ($7,600 DK / $8,100 FD)
Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK / $8,600 FD)

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs

Joe Mixon ($7,600 DK / $8,200 FD)

At the top of the board, the highest salary at the running back position I’m likely going to in cash, is Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon is a lock for 20+ touches in any gamescript right now and the touchdown variance is likely to start falling in his favor. With a matchup against mediocre run defense (21st in DVOA), and a bad defense overall, Mixon should be in a prime spot at home to get over that 2.5x value mark we’re looking for in our cash game lineups.

Leonard Fournette ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD)

The Buccaneers will likely be without a lot of their weapons on the offensive side of things with Mike Evans suspended and both Chris Godwin and Julio Jones injured. Sure, there will likely be some value opening up on the Bucs’ wide receiving core, but we know Brady goes to guys he trusts. Like Mixon, Fournette will certainly be in store for a 20+ touch afternoon and heavily involved in the passing game for a depleted pass-catching roster. The way to attack this Green Bay defense is via the run and check-down game.

David Montgomery ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD)

Let’s not reinvent the wheel here. The chalk is going to be David Montgomery on likely both NFL DFS outlets. Houston has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL (25th in DVOA) and like the two runners above, Montgomery is a volume guy that should certainly pay off the lower salary, especially on DraftKings.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, Dameon Pierce (locked in if Roquan Smith is out for the Bears, likely locked in for me anyways due to wanting Kupp).

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,900 DK / $9,800 FD) & Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DK / $9,500 FD)

With the value opened up at the running back position, I’ll be making it a focal point to lock in one of these top wideouts on the slate. I’d love to include Davante Adams in this mix, but I’m only going with the two who will be playing in a dome and up-paced environments. Arizona has one of the worst secondaries in football (as if you needed a written reason to support Cooper Kupp), and Justin Jefferson destroys Detroit’s man defense. Both of these situations are fantasy fire-up spots in what should be up-tempo matchups across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200 DK / $7,800 FD)

We truly have a star in the making in Amon-Ra St. Brown. The target share currently sits third in the NFL at over 33% and also leads the team in red-zone targets. Chandon Sullivan on the inside of the Minnesota defense isn’t as bad as Benjamin St. Juste who we picked on last week, but he’s not far from it. Trust the chemistry with Goff and St. Brown in your NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Tee Higgins ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD)

I’d love to pay-up for Ja’Maar Chase, but I’ll settle for cheaper exposure to the Bengals’ passing attack if I do not pay-up for Joe Mixon. The Jets are dead last in pass defense DVOA and clearly have the worst secondary in football right now. Wheels up for the volume and red-zone upside for Tee Higgins (especially on DraftKings).

Curtis Samuel ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD)

I’ll be riding the hot hand of Curtis Samuel who is clearly the main focus of the passing game for Ron Rivera and Scott Turner. The price is simply too low for a guy with an AETY Model expected target share of 22% in a game where they should be playing form behind.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Drake London, Mecole Hardman, Breshad Perriman

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Keeping this one simple this week. You’re paying up for Travis Kelce, or paying down for Irv Smith chalk-week. I prefer the Kelce route, but 100% understand the Irv Smith chalk if it allows you to roster Cooper Kupp and hopefully Joe Mixon.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, TJ Hockenson

Defense / Special Teams

Per usual, I will not do a full writeup on defense. Here are the teams I’m targeting to cap off my NFL DFS cash game lineup:

Los Angeles Chargers
Carolina Panthers
Las Vegas Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots and post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Josh Allen
David Montgomery
Curtis Samuel
Tee Higgins
Dameon Pierce

UPDATE: Mack Hollins Value is in-play with Renfrow OUT.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings/FanDuel DFS Quarterback Plays Week 3

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Week 2 was insane if you were a quarterback in the NFL! Not one, but two of them scored over 40 DraftKings fantasy points in Baltimore! Lamar and Tua caught most of us off guard and hit big in many tournaments, but our picks cashed in too. Wentz, Goff, Carr, Murray, and Stafford were all served up on a platter right here and in the projection model. Well, back to the grind guys, on to Week 3! We stay in the kitchen at WinDaily, some spicy gunslingers coming right up. Remember, once you’re done with this quick read, check us out on our expert chat on Discord.

Let’s check out our NFL Week 3 DFS Quarterbacks!

Josh Allen @ MIA ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel)

Captain Obvious… Yes, Josh Allen is good at football. But we figured out of respect for his talent, we would shed some light on him this week. Allen’s 600–plus passing yards with 7 touchdowns in two games has put him at the top of the menu. This week he’ll battle Tagovailoa for control of the AFC East in Miami, who’s coming off an EA Madden-style game of 469 yards and 6 touchdowns. But Buffalo’s defense has been bulletproof, leading us to consider Tua’s time with the ball could be capped. Allen’s high floor/high ceiling has been invincible at quarterback and the safest to draft but it comes at a hefty price.

Jalen Hurts @ WSH ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel)

Pay up for this green giant. Hurts has fully emerged as a dual-threat quarterback in 2022, with 577 yards thru the air and 147 on the ground with 4 total touchdowns in only his first two games. And the juicy matchups just keep getting better for Hurts in D.C. where the Commanders have allowed 808 total yards and 5 touchdowns to start the year. Oh, and I won’t forget to mention he’ll square off against the guy he replaced, Carson Wentz. This game will be epic for both teams given the scenario and as much as it can turn into a shootout, the Philly D could put Washington in a vice as we saw against the Vikings.

Kirk Cousins vs. DET ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel)

Beam us up with Captain Kirk. Forget what we saw in Phila and check out Cousins in the driver’s seat hosting Detroit. In just 2 games the Lions dished out 65 points so this puts him in the perfect bounce back situation. Detroit can hold up their end of the bargain in scoring as well (72) giving Kirk a solid floor to produce value. He may draw less attention from the field too, so a tournament for Cousins wouldn’t be a bad idea on Sunday.

Joe Burrow @ NYJ ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel)

Joe Cool 3 times the charm? We know he’s looked terrible.The O-line issues with 13 sacks, the 4 picks against Pittsburgh, its all on tape. But let’s give him the benefit of the doubt as he missed training camp because of an emergency appendectomy. And maybe with a few adjustments by the coaching staff, he can get back on track this week against a Jets secondary that can’t guard anybody. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon are all healthy so we can get behind Burrow one more time. A GPP would be so sneaky but a slight risk for cash.

Matt Stafford @ ARI ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel)

Run it back with Matt. Just as we predicted Stafford would show up ready to ball out against Atlanta last Sunday and delivered. Not much of an increase in price for a potential repeat performance in Arizona either so let’s get him in cash or a tourney why not. Divisional games can be a dog fight though, but those Arizona corners seem to be still wet a little behind the ears. His weapons are healthy, Allen Robinson made his debut in the endzone, but the run game is still under review. Even more reason for him to throw for the Dub.

Derek Carr @ TEN ($5,900 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel)

Dude where’s my Carr? At 0-2 the Raiders can’t catch a break. The Renfrow fumble cost them the game in O.T. but Carr still gave us a win in DFS at his modest price tag. Tennessee is still picking up the pieces after Monday night’s massacre by the Bills, and now on a short week head to Vegas. It may be another long day for the bottom ranked offense (28th) and defense (30th). Carr is averaging 18 fantasy points so far for the year which is a nice floor to have at that salary.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week DFS Quarterbacks article we are just getting started in Week 3. There will be tons of content covering each position all week, cash games and tournaments, as well as plenty of articles, videos, and podcasts so check in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be up on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning live stream to keep up to date with all the last-minute news. Hit me up in our Discord chat or on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 always here to help fellas…. Let’s get this money!

3 years ago 0 comments

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