This is it! The final game of the 2023 NFL Season. One in which we have two giants of the league facing each other for the 2nd time in 4 years. Will the 49ers be able to contain Mahomes and Kelce? Will Brock Purdy become a Super Bowl winning QB? Or will Andy Reid and the Chiefs cement their 3rd Super Bowl and become the latest team to be called a dynasty?
For us personally, we need this win to come out in the positive for the playoffs. After a stellar regular season, my game bets for the playoffs are a lukewarm 6-6. But the props were hot in the Conference Championship Round as I went 2-0 in that department.
So it’s time to dive into the Big Game. One in which our own Jason Mezrahi is currently deployed to. While he’s digging through Media Row and trying to ensure he has a pulse by Sunday, I’m here to give you my early leans on Super Bowl LVIII. Enjoy and let’s close out the greatest team sport with putting money in our wallets.
Just four short years ago, these two teams faced off in Super Bowl LIV. I was in the middle of a solid streak of Super Bowl wins and decided to bet San Fran who closed as a small favorite. And after 3 quarters, I felt really good about my decision to back Jimmy G and the boys. And the 4th quarter opened with a Patrick Mahomes interception even boosting my faith in the 49ers by twofold. But then some poor offensive execution and an absolute blunder on a Mahomes long ball prayer to Tyreek Hill changed everything. The Chiefs scored 21 points in the last 6 minutes and 30 seconds which led to Andy Reid’s first Super Bowl victory as a head coach and the start of a new dynasty in the AFC.
That game still stings me, and I imagine 49ers fans feel even worse. For 54 minutes of a 60-minute games, the 49ers were in full control. But they fizzled and fell flat on their face which ultimately led to them attempting to bring in a new QB (traded up to #3 in the 2021 draft for Trey Lance) and bring a new aspect to an offense that was stifled late. While the Lance project failed, they found the ultimate gem in QB Brock Purdy. And now they’ve hitched their hopes and dreams to a Round 7 QB. Sound familiar New England fans?
So this Super Bowl, while similar in faces, will have a different approach and feel to it then that of Super Bowl LIV. And to me, this San Francisco team is a better version of the one they put on the field for SB LIV. They’re offense is more dynamic as San Fran ended the regular season with the top rated offense per DVOA+, finishing 1st in passing and 2nd in rushing. On defense, they’re an aggressive unit that effectively pressures the QB. This led to them ranking 4th in defensive DVOA+ and 7th in sacks. With all the focus on Baltimore, the 49ers are the best overall team in the league.
But obviously that doesn’t put any fear in the Chiefs. They just brushed off the two best teams in the AFC by winning on the road in Buffalo and Baltimore. They never blink when faced with pressure or adversity. Instead, they thrive in that environment. And we all know Mahomes is the most dangerous as an underdog posting a 10-1 record ATS in such games.
The other X factor is DC Steve Spagnolo. He’s been brilliant in the playoffs by creating gameplans that have shut down the league MVP and runner up. Surely he’ll craft up something to neutralize Brock Purdy and force him into bad decisions.
However, I’m reading the wave of public betting and experts picks that are all leaning one way. Almost 80% of the bets and 78% of the money is on the Chiefs. Yet, the spread has moved towards the 49ers by 0.5 points (opened at SF -1.5 and is currently SF -2). Looking at all the main media outlets, you see a heavy balance of Chiefs backers. On ESPN.com, 49 of the 64 experts pick the Chiefs including Bill Barnwell. Barstool Sports president Dave Portnoy has placed a $500K bet on Kansas City. The list is endless and I challenge you to find someone picking the 49ers.
In the end, as much as I fear what Purdy will do when pressured, I think SF will be able to pick up big chunks in their running game. Unlike Baltimore, who just abandoned the rush, the 49ers will continue to pound the rock with their best player, and it will keep Spagnolo guessing and his defense in passive mode. This will open up play action and room for Deebo and Kittle to make big plays in the passing game.
On defense, the one area that gives Mahomes trouble is a defensive line that can win their matchups. Remember their one Super Bowl loss was due to the relentless pressure from Tampa’s D-Line. The 49ers D-line can win those battles with Bosa, Young and Hargrave as top 10 players at their respective positions. I see the 49ers defense making a critical play late in the game that will lead towards them bringing home the Lombardi.
All the trends and 80% of the people are seeing red. Instead I’m seeing burgundy and hope that will turn into a wave of green.
Everyone loves a good shootout. We had one last year with Philly and KC as well. I see a similar script in this one and like the over the total. While KC’s defense has been brilliant, the 49ers are 2nd in points per game at 28.8. They’ve scored 27 or more in 13 of their 19 games. And the Chiefs offense has found a rhythm of late as they are averaging 23.7 per game in the playoffs. Even with hitting their averages, I see this game falling in the low 50’s.
Fun fact, the over is 28-28 all time in Super Bowl history.
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY over 4.5 rec (-130): Just set it and forget it. The Chiefs aggressive man-to-man defense allows for mismatches in the short passing game. CMac is going to the be the next in line of running backs to have a great receiving game against KC.
PATRICK MAHOMES over 4.5 rushing attempts (-110): Mahomes has 12 rushing attempts in the past 2 playoff games. He’s going to feel the pressure of the 49ers defensive front and look to use his legs to gain yards. I looked at “running” QB’s that have played the 49ers this year and this was their rushing line:
This shows there is room to run against SF if Mahomes wants to take it. And based off the last two games, where he had 6 rushes in each game, and the ability of other running QB’s to find room to run, this is a good number to bet.
ISAIAH PACHECO over 16.5 receiving yards (-110): Let’s just stick with the RB’s on Sunday. Both pass defenses are solid but tend to allow yards out of the backfield. The 49ers allowed 90 receptions and 625 yards receiving to RB’s. That was 7th most (receptions) and 8th most (yards) in the NFL. Pacheco went over this number in 2 of the 3 playoff games so far and 4 of his last 6 overall.
GEORGE KITTLE longest reception over 21.5 receiving yards (-110): Kittle has gone over this number in both playoff games with catches of 28 and 32 yards respectively. Going back further, He’s gone over this number in 7 of his last 8 games. And he exceeded it in 12 of his 18 games total this year. He beats this number 67% of the time and with odds of -110 we’re getting good EV (Note: odds of -110 means you have expected winning of 52.4% but Kittle has gone over this in 67% of his games).
COIN TOSS – TAILS (-110); Because it never fails. And is 30-27 all time against heads in Super Bowl’s.
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We had a decent Divisional Round weekend with our NFL Game Bets. Saturday saw us assess the possibility of at least one of the #1 seeds struggling (10-14-2 ATS since 2010). The issue is we got the game in which it occurred incorrect. But then Sunday came and we got both of those outcomes correct to even out our record to 5-5 in the playoffs.
Sunday 1/28/24 UPDATE: On Thursday I gave out my initial leans. Today, I’ve locked in my two primary bets. We’re dialing up Ravens -4 (I’ve seen it drop to -3.5 in some books) and Lions +7.5.
My concerns with Baltimore were circled around their recent trend of having offensive struggles in playoff games. And that did rear its head early in the Divisional Round, as Baltimore went into halftime tied at 10 with Houston. But something happened in the second half. The Ravens put the ball in Lamar Jackson’s hands on the first drive which resulted in two scripted QB runs and four pass plays to get the ball in the endzone. On the ensuing drive, they once again trusted Jackson in making the right plays and drove the ball 93 yards to take a 14-point lead. Game, set and match.
And now that weight of winning a playoff game and reaching the conference finals for the first time in 10 years, is totally off their shoulders. Which I believe is a huge factor in handicapping this game. Baltimore will now play at home for the 4th game in a row, which means they haven’t traveled since Christmas Day when they beat the 49ers in San Francisco.
But there’s a giant on the opposing sideline this weekend. And that’s the reigning Super Bowl Champions in the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is almost unbeatable as an underdog. In his career he is 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog and 9-0-1 ATS as an underdog on the road. This is undeniably a proverbial behemoth that hardly loses. And when they do, it’s not without a fight.
However, here are the trends that I’m weighing heavily. Teams playing a 4th consecutive home game, entering a Conference Championship, are 7-1 SU. Additionally, HC John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS in the playoffs since 2012. His counterpart, Andy Reid, is 0-2 SU on the road in Conference Championships.
In the end, Kansas City’s struggles this year have been on offense. And they are now facing their biggest challenge in the Ravens who allow the least points per game in the NFL. The Ravens also create significant pressure, leading the NFL in sacks. The Ravens are not going to allow Travis Kelce to beat them. Someone in the Chiefs WR room will have to step up. And that’s where my confidence in the Chiefs stops. Also factor in the we’ve seen 64% of the tickets and 73% of the money pour in on KC. Yet, in some books, the line has moved up to Baltimore -4. That’s a clear signal that Vegas has a beat on this game.
JUSTICE HILL over 2.5 rec (+150): The Ravens don’t throw a lot in general. And that’s even more true in terms of throws to their RB’s. But one area in which the Chiefs will concede is throws to the running backs. Just look at the last 4 games and how teams RB’s fared:
So you see a trend here. As discussed on last nights’ NFL Draftcast, I expect Justice Hill to have a larger role than Gus Edwards. And if that turns out to be the case, Hill should be the recipient of the pass catching opportunities and keep up a trend of lead RB’s getting at least 3 catches versus KC.
A big factor in this bet is the health of San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel. This season, 49ers are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS when Deebo plays and finishes a game. They are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS when he doesn’t. Brock Purdy looks more like the last pick in the draft when missing his go-to WR. And although Detroit’s secondary is suspect, without Samuel they can cover that up with creative blitz packages.
Then there’s this idea of how Jared Goff struggles against the blitz. In reality, he’s rather efficient as he led the league in passing yards when facing a blitz. He also threw the second most TD’s, 13, trailing only Jordan Love. When he faces teams that sack the QB at a rate of 4% or more, which SF does, he is 7-1 ATS this season. And since we know the Lions offensive line is one of the tops in the league, the only true way to get to a 4% sack rate will be via the blitz. So is sending the house really a strategy that SF is willing to take this weekend? That will be one of the more interesting moves to keep an eye on when the Lions have the ball.
Ultimately, the Lions are good enough to hang with any team in the league. They’ve shown that with road wins in KC, Green Bay and Tampa. And they should have another one under their belt but they ended up losing by one point to Dallas late in the year on the road. Their 6-3 record on the road was 2nd in the NFC behind only SF (7-2). I just think 7 points is too much considering the Lions only lost by more than 7 twice all year (for comparison 49ers lost by more than 7 points twice as well).
So let’s keep an eye on Deebo’s status but my early lean is to ride the blue wave in Detroit and take the 7 points.
DAVID MONTGOMERY over 43.5 yards rushing – Montgomery has gone over this number in all but two of his 16 games played this season (subtracting the game where got hurt vs TB). The Lions pride themselves on being a rushing first team. And we just saw a similar style runner in Aaron Jones go for 108 rushing yards versus this SF defense.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & GAME PROPS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
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