A big miss on my end to not discuss the Baltimore/Miami game last week. Congrats to those who played it! Now let’s get right back at it for Week 3. To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a potential splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat.
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
There’s no denying the popular plays of Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are fantastic. If you’re into them, I will not talk you off of them, but I’ll likely be keeping my exposure to them in mass multi entry contests and cash games. In single entry or 3-max GPPs, here’s where I’m looking to go:
Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD)
A sub-5% owned Mahomes in a dome, against a banged up Colts’ defense that runs Cover-3 coverage at a league high rate is all systems go for me and the AETY Model. On a slate with Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, we need upside if we’re going to go elsewhere and Patrick Mahomes offers just that and little-to-no ownership.
Stacking Options: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman
Run-Back Options: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.
Matthew Stafford ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)
Getting exposure to the highest expected tempo on the slate is more times than not going to work out in your favor and pairing that with a matchup against one of the worst defenses in football certainly should help. The AETY Model projects Stafford and the Rams for the second highest passing yards on this slate (second to Mahomes) and there’s no ownership going to Stafford (sub 5%).
I prefer to limit my Stafford exposure to a 3-max type of contest, but I have no problems with you taking that route in single entry. The 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA) is going to get torched and as long as you think Kyler Murray and the Cardinals can keep this one close and up-tempo, Stafford should be in for a field day.
Stacking Options: Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Tyler Higbee
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Greg Dortch
Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,500 FD)
Simply put, the Bengals are damn-near in “must-win” territory and what better time for Burrow and the Bengals to absolutely light up the worst secondary in the NFL? The Jets dead-last in pass defense DVOA and have had an insanely hard time generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This is a statement game for Burrow and the Bengals. I love the buy-low spot being offered by these sites for my NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Stacking Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins
Run-Back Options: Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Tyler Conklin, Michael Carter
Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Marcus Mariota (great value)
NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
This is a week where NO-ONE is going to pay up at running back (David Montgomery, Dameon Pierce, and Leonard Fournette leading the pack in ownership by a mile…and for good reason). I’m not sure that I will either due to the lack of production from high-end backs so far this season and my appetite to load up these top tier wide receivers. If you want to guarantee yourself a nice way to get different, it’s paying up at RB.
- Jonathan Taylor ($9,000 DK / $9,400 FD)
- Derrick Henry ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD)
- Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD)
Miles Sanders ($5,500 DK / $6,800 FD)
Sitting right around 10-12% in current ownership projections is one of the most talented running backs who’s starting to break away with the lead running back role in Philadelphia. Sanders offers us the perfect leverage off of Jalen Hurts chalk (Hurts may very well have a great game), but Miles Sanders projects as the 4th best value on the slate according to the AETY Model and goes up against the worst run defense on the model and 2nd worse in DVOA. Let’s ride.
Rashaad Penny ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)
Kenneth Walker being activated and used a bit in both the rushing and passing game downgrades this play quite a bit, but the lead back in Seattle is still Rashaad Penny until further notice. I somewhat like this Atlanta/Seattle game and think it can be a low-key, no ownership type of gross shootout. While everyone is going to play Dameon Pierce, pivoting down to Rashaad Penny (who the AETY Model likes almost just as much as Pierce) may be a 1% owned play that can make a difference in NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Honorable Mention: Devin Singletary, Joe Mixon, David Montgomery
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
We don’t need to discuss how great of plays Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill are. Considering ownership, I’d rank them Jefferson, Kupp, Adams, Hill, Diggs. You know they are fine plays and should feel confident loading them in your lineups or game-stacks.
Ja’Maar Chase ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD)
The ownership projection is sub-3% right now for Ja’Maar Chase… I’m in. Chase should have an absolute field day against this Jets’ secondary and offer us a great low-owned pivot off of the chalkier studs listed above.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)
I spoke all summer about Matt Ryan WR1’s and won’t stop now. I absolutely love the Chiefs’ side of this game and would start my run-back in those stacks with Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman moves all around the formation and will have a positive gamescript as soon as the Chiefs march down the field and score twice. We know Frank Reich will try to avoid this game becoming a shootout, but I doubt they can they can keep the Chiefs contained for long.
Gabriel Davis ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)
While the world world rushes to load up on Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs stacks (there’s no shame in that, it’s been the nuts all year long thus far), I’ll be prioritizing the cheaper, un-owned wide receiver to ensure I get a strong piece of this Bills’ offense in Gabe Davis. Xavien Howard will likely travel with Stefon Diggs (advantage still to Diggs) but at that ownership, I’ll take the stance that Howard does enough to limit the ceiling of Diggs and let hope for a big game out of Davis against Nik Needham, Keion Crossen, and rookie, Kader Kohou.
Drake London ($5,800 DK / $6,200 FD)
London is a true WR1 who currently sits 4th in the NFL for WR target share. The price is a sham and the matchup is absolutely sexy (Seattle grades 30th in pass defense DVOA). I mentioned my small interested in Rashaad Penny earlier and I’ll definitely prioritize Drake London as a mini game-stack or solely as a one-off in NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Tee Higgins, Marquise Brown, Tyler Lockett, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Treylon Burks, Mecole Hardman
NFL DFS GPP Punt Plays
- Mack Hollins
- Nico Collins
- Greg Dortch
- Scotty Miller
NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends
Travis Kelce ($7,900 DK / $7,800 FD)
A 5-10% owned Travis Kelce against a banged up Colts’ defense who grades 31st in DVOA against opposing tight-ends…
Darren Waller ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD)
Without Hunter Renfrow, Mack Hollins and Darren Waller got a significant upgrade in the AETY Model. My only concern here is the expected pace of play, but the enhanced workload and price in NFL DFS GPP lineups makes Waller a top-tier tight-end this weekend.
Dallas Goedert ($4,700 DK / $5,500 FD)
The price is way too cheap for the number two passing target in one of the most highest scoring, up-tempo offenses in the NFL. The Eagles are doing a fantastic job putting Goedert in plus matchups against linebackers and and nickel corners. If you’re going to stack with Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert and AJ Brown are the clear options here.
Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Irv Smith Jr., Tyler Conklin
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Content Director for Win Daily Sports NFL/MLB. Creator of the AETY Model. Chicago White Sox die-hard. Focusing on helping others manage their bankroll and cross the pay line in NFL/MLB Cash Games & GPP's. CoFounder of thoroughbred horse racing partnership, Reta Racing LLC.