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BMW PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

In a rare spectacle for golf fans this week we will be treated to players from the DP World Tour, PGA Tour, and the outcasts of LIV Golf all teeing it up at the same venue. Given a temporary stay being granted at the Scottish Open pending full trial, the DP World Tour have conceded allowing players who have sufficient OWGR points to qualify be allowed to play. This is written with sufficient bitterness. Many of those golfers have never bothered to play a DP World Tour event prior.

Whether this provides any additional motivation is hard to tell. On the one hand, players who have remained loyal to the structure of golf will doing their utmost to prevent a difficult to advertise LIV Golf victor. In contrast, this week provides an extremely rare opportunity for the dozen or so LIV Golf players to earn some OWGR points. All in all, I would say this factor ends up even.

It does, however, provide an intriguing backdrop leading into the DP World Tour’s marquee event. Alongside the season ending DP World Tour Championship, this often produces the strongest field of the year. And with no other notable golf tournaments being played this week, the entire golfing world’s eyes will be fixated upon Surrey.

Who should you bet at the BMW PGA Championship? This is your weekly DP World Tour deep-dive with course analysis, weather forecast, player profiles, and your BMW PGA Championship golf betting tips.

Last Week Recap

Another promising week for our tips, who put themselves close enough to contention although eventually never threatening the lead. Daan Huizing was the pick of the bunch. Tipped at 100/1 he closed with the joint low round of the week of 62 (-9). He returned a Top 8 partial place payout at $20 ($5.25 after dead-heat deductions) and a Top 20 at $6.50.

Jack Senior also cashed a Top 20 ticket at $4.50 ($3.38 after dead-heat deductions). A further three players (Olesen, Coetzee, and Kawamura) all finished agonisingly close in 22nd, just one shot outside a Top 20. As always, it was great to have so many players close to the top of the leaderboard. It is only a matter of time before another gets over the line come Sunday.

Made in Himmerland tips were posted here as well as in Discord: https://windailysports.com/made-in-himmerland-golf-betting-tips-your-dp-world-tour-deep-dive/?ref=31

Course Analysis

Wentworth Club plays host this week, as it has at all BMW PGA Championship events since 1984. Obviously, this means we have copious amounts of data at our fingertips. However, it is worth noting a couple of caveats to this. First, the course underwent some significant renovations in 2016. This saw many greens completely redesigned and a shift to bentgrass surfaces. Secondly, the tournament shifted from May to the current September slot in 2019.

The 7,267-yard par 72 does provide a sterner test than recent winning scores perhaps suggest. Two of those victories, by Willett and Hatton, also came several shots better than the chasing pack. This tree-lined course provides a test of all facets of the game. It is worth noting this is a significant change to the mainly links style courses we have seen lately on the DP World Tour.

Accurate driving and ability to shape the ball off the tee is imperative. The course has never really been overpowered yet, and placement on these severely sloping fairways is always a great place to start.

Greens are small and often multi-tiered requiring pinpoint iron play. Guarded by multiple deep bunkers, reports are that the grass area around the greens have been shaved shorter this year so may prove slightly less penal. Recent wet weather should be offset on greens by the sub-air system installed during aforementioned renovations. Rather uniquely, the course finishes with back-to-back par 5s which can provide for a riveting finish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXqOmnqGo28

The best starting point is to find excellent iron players who also are driving accuracy positive. A modicum of scrambling may be required. A bonus is positive performances on other bentgrass surfaces.

Weather Forecast

Weather does look to be a potential factor this week. This is made somewhat more difficult by all groups going off the first tee, taking advantage of the longer daylight hours in the UK at this time of year. Make sure you are specifically checking each players tee-times. AM/PM waves can be slightly more difficult to identify this week.

Thursday AM should provide the best conditions of the first two days. Light prevailing winds of 5-8mph alongside gusts of 10-15 mph is mild on a tree-lined course. There may also be some benefit from rain the previous day and light rain overnight. Winds should begin picking up from midday with prevailing winds of 11-14mph and gusts at 25-29mph. This should provide the most difficult conditions of the first two days.

Friday AM should again start calm at 5-10mph prevailing winds and 9-14mph gusts. Inclement weather will arrive slightly earlier from 10am, with prevailing winds of 10-12mph and gusts of 19-22mph. Rain and possible thunderstorms are also expected in the vicinity for Friday PM. Any delay to play should see much better conditions on Saturday morning. Weather is predicted to be calm for the weekend.

I am targeting two windows of weather this week. Those teeing off their first-round before 9am on Thursday should enjoy the best conditions of the opening rounds. They then go off in the Friday PM which looks comparatively calmer, with possibility of thunderstorm delays also a positive. The other window is 10:50am-12pm Thursday tee-times. They should have some calm conditions to start their rounds but then go off first thing on Friday AM.

https://www.windy.com/51.399/-0.592?51.375,-0.592,12,m:e4Oaf8b

Comp Courses

Wentworth Club
Brabazon Course at The Belfry
Emirates Golf Club
Golfclub Munchen Eichenried
Montgomerie Maxx Royal
Mount Juliet Estate

BMW PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Shane Lowry
– 3pts E/W $17.00 (Bet365, 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Branden Grace
– 1pt E/W $56.00 (Bet365, 6 places, 1/4 odds)
– 2pts Top 20 $3.30 (Bet365)

Jordan Smith
– 1pt E/W $61.00 (Bet365, 8 places, 1/5 odds)
– 2pts Top 20 $3.75 (Bet365)

Fabrizio Zanotti
– 1pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365, 8 places, 1/5 odds)
– 2pts Top 20 $4.00 (Bet365)

Antoine Rozner
– 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365, 6 places, 1/4 odds)
– 3pts Top 20 $5.00 (TAB)

Sami Valimaki
– 0.5pt E/W $201.00 (William Hill, 8 places, 1/5 odds)
– 3pts Top 20 $7.50 (TAB)

Justin Walters
– 0.5pt E/W $251.00 (Bet365, 6 places, 1/4 odds)
– 3pts Top 30 $4.75 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

Shane Lowry

The top players all earn their odds and are rightfully priced where they are in the pecking order of chances this week. You don’t need me to tell you that McIlroy, Rahm, and Fitzpatrick are justified favourites. If you do, we have bigger problems to talk about.

I start my betting card with Shane Lowry, who will be looking to stake his Ryder Cup claims in the first week of points becoming available. Lowry’s approach play has been phenomenal. He sits 3rd for SG: Approach for both the last 3 months and 12 months in this field.

Lowry successfully navigated the requisite tough driving when finishing 2nd at the Honda Classic earlier this year. He was last seen in Europe finishing 9th at another tree-lined course (Mount Juliet Estate) that demands accurate driving. In that week, he scrambled just to make the cut after a very poor first round and finishing with 4 consecutive birdies in his 2nd round. It again underlines the level he can perform at when dropping to DP World Tour level that he managed to finish with a top 10.

Further, his performances here have been excellent. With 6 top-15 finishes prior to renovations and the shift to the September dates, Lowry has turned up for 11-13-17 in the last three renditions at Wentworth. There is plenty of other comp course form at Emirates Golf Club, Golfclub Munchen Eichenried, and Montgomerie Maxx Royal.

Arguably, he arrives after what has been his best year on the PGA Tour despite not having a win to his name. A 12th last time out at the BMW Championship was a welcome return to form. He was very unlucky to miss out by one place to the Tour Championship.

8:45am tee-time Thursday suits perfectly to take advantage of those conditions. At 17/1 I have him slightly over valued, where a fair price should be 13/1.

Branden Grace

It galls me to have to finally relent and put a LIV golfer up as part of my tips. Unfortunately, Grace’s credentials prove too tough to pass over at the generous odds that are on offer.

Since moving to LIV, Grace has finished 3-W-13-12. What that is actually worth is tough to judge, however a noticeable jump in driving accuracy of late is noteworthy from what limited stats we get from those events. His other recent appearance was a 24th at the Scottish Open in a world class field.

Grace has an excellent record at Wentworth, with 4 finishes of 11th or better here. Notably, he has not played as well here in the latest renditions. This is somewhat offset when comparing the incoming form there, where a multitude missed cuts and a best prior finish of 30th meaning he was arriving in some fairly average form.

The 12pm Thursday tee-time may prove tough on the first day, but if he is able to stay in touch he is greeted with an early start Friday to compensate. The perceived improvement in ball striking from driving accuracy stats are complimented by his proven scrambling ability and above average putting.

Jordan Smith

I’m tipping an Englishman with my next pick, with 7 of the last 13 winners being locals. With 13/17 of his tournaments this year resulting in a top 25 finish, it is easy to imagine Smith’s name towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

At his best, Smith is long and accurate off the tee and excels with his iron play. The difference between a top 25 and a top 5 for him often comes down to the flatstick. However, I am happy to embrace that volatility and hope to catch him on a spike week at a course where he has finished 13th and 24th with far worse incoming form.

At comp courses this year Smith has a 9th at the Dubai Desert Classic, 21st at the British Masters, and 8th at the BMW International Open. He has also finished 3rd there before, on another course demanding excellent iron play and where we saw renowned ball striker Victor Perez victorious this year. Ranked 13th this year in the DP World Tour rankings, Smith has a genuine shot at making a Ryder Cup team if he continues this upward trajectory.

Fabrizio Zanotti

The last time we tipped Zanotti was at the Irish Open, where he duly finished 4th around the similar tree-lined course of Mount Juliet Estate. As always with the Paraguayan, the difference to victory came with the putter. Since then, Zanotti has mainly played links tournaments which is certainly not a typical strength. As such, his recent finishes of 16th and 12th should actually be read under a more positive lens as his excellent iron play continues to impress.

Alongside that 4th, Zanotti also finished 8th at The Belfry during the British Masters and 18th at the Dubai Desert Classic. The Emirates Golf Club bentgrass greens prove analogous to here, and he managed to gain more than 7 strokes putting to the field in his best putting performance of the year.

Accuracy off the tee and SG: Approach is always a great starting point around Wentworth. This proved to be the case last year, when Zanotti finished 20th when arriving in pretty average form. 11:10am tee-time on Thursday should allow 9 holes under reasonable conditions, followed by 7am Friday under much calmer skies. If he can combine the elite ball-striking with prior bentgrass putting performances, the 80/1 on offer could prove extreme value.

Antoine Rozner

In terms of great ball-strikers, Rozner also holds significant appeal having gained strokes on approach in his last 8 tournaments. This includes being the best player in this field on approach over the last 30 days and 15th for SG: T2G over the last 3 months. That is a lot of value for a 110/1 golfer.

Those recent performances leads to incoming form of 13th and 4th arriving here. That is far better than the 52nd he arrived with on debut here last year, hence easily forgiven. Instead there is appeal from the 13th at the Irish Open, 15th at the BMW International, and 9th last year at the Emirates (where he gained multiple strokes putting).

The excellent approach play is complimented by gaining a massive 20% on the field for driving accuracy when last seen. That suggest his ball-striking is right at its peaks of late, and anything like a mediocre putting performance could see him go very close to the title. 7:50am Thursday tee-time only adds to the appeal for the talented Frenchman whose game is on the rise.

Sami Valimaki

Having just turned 24 years old, we are still finding out exactly where Valimaki’s game is heading. What we do know is this talented young golfer won multiple times at lower levels and won near immediately upon reaching the DP World Tour. In that debut season, he also managed a 13th here in 2020 in his first look at the track when just 21 years old.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1234107065431400449?s=20&t=ar9yZv9aNcec0WsCBf9GTg

Valimaki has never displayed much links form in his first few seasons. So, much akin to Zanotti, recent results of 16th at the Cazoo Classic and 24th at the stacked field of the Scottish Open should be read positively. Complimenting this is the 4th place earlier this year at the BMW International Open in what is always a decently strong field for the DP World Tour.

An excellent putter, Valimaki has now gained for driving accuracy in his last 4 tournaments and gained on approach in 3/4. He sists 28th in this field for SG: T2G over the last 3 months and 7th for SG: Putting. Again, this represents great value at 200/1 and the 7:50am Thursday tee-time holds similar appeals.

Justin Walters

Finally, South African golfer Justin Walters rounds out the picks this week at a speculative play at 250/1. Walters arrived after finishing 4th for SG: Approach when finishing 8th at the Made in Himmerland. That included a week where he was even on the putting surface, typically the weakest part of his game and promising given the true bentgrass greens on course.

Again, not being renowned as a links player should add credence to that recent 8th and a 22nd the start prior. There was a gap of nearly 6 weeks between those tournaments, so the big spike in approach is enough to speculate he may have found some ground in that break.

At comp courses, Walters finished 3rd this year at the British Masters (where he also holds a 2nd) and 20th at the Irish Open when arriving off a missed cut. A prior finish of 10th around the Montgomerie Maxx Royal also holds some correlating form to this track. The 11am start Thursday means he should have 9 holes in calmer weather, followed by being in the 2nd group out on Friday morning. Coupled with improved driving accuracy in his last two appearances, there is enough to speculate that 250/1 could be overs and a realistic chance at some place money on offer.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Omega European Masters Golf Betting Tips: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The DP World Tour is back in full swing with another full field event, this time with some Omega European Masters golf betting tips. And whilst the PGA Tour wrap their season this week, DP World Tour players will be looking to secure their cards for next season or even reach the season ending DP World Tour Championship.

Unfortunately, last week at the D+D Real Czech Masters the tournament was shortened to just 54 holes after a substantial amount of rain. The tournament organisers really shot themselves in the foot, allowing groups to begin their rounds Saturday despite more impending weather. Indeed, some groups were through 5 holes when play was suspended.

There was no way back from that point, as play did not return that day meaning the only feasible option was for the existing 2-balls to continue. Had some forethought been applied, start of play could have been delayed awaiting the expected weather on an already soggy course. This would have allowed 2 rounds on the Sunday, with players reassigned to 3-balls off both tees. Regretfully, common sense is never as common as desired.

This put paid to our tips for the week. 5/6 tips had made the cut and were all positioned in the top 30. There was plenty of potential for a charge up the leaderboard by one or two. Alas, circumstances prevented us ever finding out. 200/1 tip Pep Angles finishing 13th returned a nice top 20 collect.

This stunning tournament is played in the Swiss Alps at one of the most picturesque courses in the world, Crans-sur-Sierre. Who should you bet at the Omega European Masters? This is your DP World Tour deep dive with course analysis, weather forecast, and Omega European Masters golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

When thinking of golfing paradise, Crans-sur-Sierre would come pretty close in my books. This spectacular course sits 5,000ft above sea level on a lush green plateau. As a result, altitude will see the ball travel further on a course that is relatively short.

The course is a unique setup. The par-70 is reached via 5 par 3s and 3 par 5s and playing at 6,824 yards. Further, 4 par 4s are less than 400 yards. One par 5 is over 600 yards and two par 4s can play over 500 yards. On the home stretch, the 14th and 15th are back-to-back par 5s and both potentially reachable which often leads to an enthralling finish.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1562032401504563200?s=20&t=WMsAsZAoGfook9Ld75XQhw

Greens are extremely small. We have seen several excellent approach players do well here. Conversely, given there are several driveable par 4s (for the brave) and gettable par 5s we have also seen some bomb their way to victory. And, although most winners have had a lean towards finding fairways and greens, there are several approaches to this course that can be successful.

However, given greens will inevitably be missed, having an excellent week scrambling and putting has been a prerequisite to most winners. Short game can be extremely volatile to predict, and we have seen winners from 12/1 up to 275/1 in recent iterations.

Consequently, your list of potential names will likely be huge this week as you can make a case for so many given this diverse and interesting course. This is reflected in betting markets, with no golfer shorter than 18/1 and a huge 17 golfers at 40/1 or better. You may wish to spread exposure for the week as a result.

Weather Forecast

For weather this week, I recommend using Meteoblue who have an excellent reputation in alpine regions. Weather in these areas can be incredibly difficult to predict and changes quickly.

Thursday is expected to be sunny at 23C (73F) and relatively calm with prevailing winds expected at just 1-5mph, although some gusts up to 20mph might be seen in very late afternoon.

Friday will be overcast and slightly cooler, reaching 19C (F). Some gusts in the range of 13-18mph are expected from midday. The biggest threat across the first two days is potential Friday PM thunderstorms. Accordingly, there is a chance that this could delay play to Saturday morning, when calmer although some early morning fog is predicted.

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/week/crans-sur-sierre_switzerland_2661083?day=2

https://www.windy.com/46.307/7.469?2022082412,46.199,7.469,10,m:eWlagnB

If you wanted to play a weather hedge, Thursday AM/Friday PM would be the side of the draw to play. With the perennial difficulty in predicting just how severe potential thunderstorms will end up being, I don’t think this is worth playing exclusively.

Comp Courses

Diamond Country Club – Austrian Golf Open

Real Club Valderrama – Andalucia Masters

Saujana Golf and Country Club – Maybank Championship

The Belfry – British Masters

Karen Country Club – Former host of Kenyan Open

Omega European Masters Golf Betting Tips

Headliners – Suggested Staking

Alexander Bjork
1.5pt E/W $41.00 (Bet365 8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pt Top 20 $3.40 (TAB)

Renato Paratore
1.5pt E/W $46.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $3.50 (TAB)

Marcus Helligkilde
1pt E/W $61.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $3.60 (TAB)

Marcus Kinhult
1pt E/W $61.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $3.75 (TAB)

Sebastian Soderberg
1pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365 8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pt Top 20 $4.50 (TAB)

Ashun Wu
0.5pt E/W $126.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $5.00 (TAB)

Miguel Angel Jimenez
0.5pt E/W $151.00 (William Hill 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $5.00 (Bet365)

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1562431573365891073?s=20&t=WMsAsZAoGfook9Ld75XQhw

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1562341441853984769?s=20&t=WMsAsZAoGfook9Ld75XQhw

Extreme Long-shots – Suggested Staking

Andrea Pavan
0.25pt E/W $251.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $9.00 (TAB)

Stephen Gallacher
0.25pt E/W $301.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $10.00 (TAB)

Zheng-Kai Bai
0.25pt E/W $401.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
0.5pt Top 20 $12.00 (TAB)

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1560590452650151941?s=20&t=WMsAsZAoGfook9Ld75XQhw

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: BMW Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Be sure to check out my Bettor Golf and PGA DraftCast episodes over here at WinDaily!

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($10,500) – My initial lean on Monday was to exclude Rory McIlroy from my player pool, but with Justin Thomas’ ownership surging and the reduction in price that we do have with the entire top section of the board, I will pivot over to the Irishman – who likely will go off as one of the five highest owned golfers on the slate. To me, this is a spot where being neutral to McIlroy is my preferred choice versus trying to get overweight since my model doesn’t necessarily love his profile from top-to-bottom, but the total driving and par-five scoring might be enough for him to tear this venue apart.

Jon Rahm ($10,300) – Jon Rahm flashed the form we had become accustomed to for years at the St. Jude – gaining eight strokes with his ball-striking, and while the short game has been problematic for far too long this season, we see the Spaniard’s baseline putting increase from 31st in this field when given a random track to 13th on Bent. If the putter is actually heating up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the former top-ranked player in the world walks out of the BMW Championship victorious.

Other Thoughts – Justin Thomas ($10,100) – At the end of the day, it just came down to McIlroy and Thomas being too close in ownership to ignore the rest of the intangibles. I do like how Thomas sets up for the track, but there were options I preferred over him when push came to shove.

$9,000 Range

Scottie Scheffler ($9,800) – Is Scottie Scheffler’s inability to putt recently ideal? Of course not. But I am more focused on this $9,800 price tag that is baking in many of those concerns upfront. The number one player in the world has the exact makeup I am looking for in a golfer that can use his distance to hit it into wide-open areas of the rough and then find success out of the thicker stuff with his irons – a category where he ranks second in the field when I recalculated the information.

Xander Schauffele ($9,600) – The ownership is steadily rising, which means he isn’t as great of a play Wednesday afternoon as he was on Monday morning, but he is one of the safer golfers for cash because of the no-cut nature and recent form, and he is also in GPP consideration since he would need to be pushing around 18% to be classified as a ‘negative value’ in my model. I am not going massively overweight, but he will be in my pool.

Viktor Hovland ($9,200) – I am looking for golfers that have a potential recipe that can enter the mix if certain facets of their games get hot, and Viktor Hovland brings both the total driving and iron proximity to the table if we see this track play into the 20-under par range.

Sungjae Im ($9,100) – It is worth noting that Sungjae Im is a favorite over Collin Morikawa at a few sharper books in the space, and while my model doesn’t necessarily see a massive difference between the two parties, it does view him as a golfer that is trending in the right direction from both a ball-striking and a results perspective.

Other Thoughts: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) did make my official player pool. The ownership is low enough to take a shot, and even if my model struggles to find his upside during most weeks, the floor is there on a player I am clearly too low on from a statistical perspective. I still can’t figure out how Fitzpatrick produces weekly, but he does always seem to find success.

$8,000 Range

Cameron Young ($8,900) – I thought this situation was extremely similar to what we saw with Will Zalatoris last week. Sure, I don’t love that the public is all over a golfer with actual red flags if we want to get nitpicky, but I will trust my model, which places Young first overall.

Shane Lowry ($8,700) – The recent form is trending in the wrong direction, but I cannot ignore the first-place total in weighted tee-to-green. Similar to what I am doing with Jordan Spieth, I am taking a shot on Lowry’s potential.

Corey Conners ($8,300) – I can’t say the overhaul of Corey Conners plays from me haven’t been working, but I also can’t declare anyone has been overly impressed by his 28th, 21st and 28th place finishes, respectively. I believe Conners busts through at some point with a top-10 showing because the stats look too strong across the board, and the venue does seem strong for him, especially since he has been such a robust Bentgrass performer in the past.

Other Thoughts: Jordan Spieth ($8,800) – Stixpicks has talked me into playing Jordan Spieth.

$7,000 Range

Russell Henley ($7,800) – It has been settled. Russell Henley might be the worst putter on tour. I don’t know when and how that happened because there was a time that I once trusted him with a flat stick in his hand, but since everyone knows that about him at this point, it is providing us an opening to roster the American at sub-10 percent. I do like how Henley tends to spike when he gains strokes with the putter, so let’s hope for the best there and trust the ball-striking metrics that help rank him fifth in weighted tee-to-green expectation.

Davis Riley ($7,500) – Riley ranks 14th in this field for birdie or better percentage, and he also propels to seventh overall in weighted total driving – thanks to his combination of distance and accuracy off the tee.

Keith Mitchell ($7,400) – My numbers were neutral on Mitchell, but when I added in some of the totals from the sharper books into my mix, it did propel him into a playable option in all markets.

Taylor Pendrith ($7,400) – Taylor Pendrith -110 over J.T. Poston was one of my bigger head-to-head plays of the week in the betting market.

Keegan Bradley ($7,200) – The long-term metrics outweigh this recent downswing that we have seen from Bradley.

Additional Thoughts: You can view my model for additional thoughts!

$6,000 Range

Harold Varner III $6,900, Emiliano Grillo $6,600, Wyndham Clark $6,500, Sebastian Munoz $6,500, Alex Smalley $6,100, Luke List $6,000

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3 years ago 0 comments

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2022 BMW Championship: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

What a start to the FedEx Cup playoffs! The FedEx St Jude Championship delivered an epic finish for golf fans alongside some massive profits for us. Having had multiple 2nd and 3rd place golfers in each of the three prior weeks, we saw one of our tips convert with a huge win with Will Zalatoris at 29/1.

We also had Collin Morikawa come home for 5th and a place money cash, who will be left ruing missing putts of 4ft and 6ft in his last 4 holes. And, perhaps ironically, our best return per $ spent came from Trey Mullinax who was tipped at a whopping 250/1 and duly finished 5th. To cap a fantastic week, we also tipped Ewen Ferguson to win on the DP World Tour and complete a rare trans-Atlantic double.

Wilmington Country Club plays host this week, in what is not only the first professional golf tournament hosted here but in fact the first PGA Tour event in the state of Delaware. Home course of President Joe Biden, the course is immaculately kept with a grand clubhouse sure to provide a picturesque backdrop to the tournament this week.

The stakes are high with the field cut to just the top 70. Not only does the Tour Championship provide lucrative pay checks to the top 30 and eventual FedEx Champion, but also entry to the Majors in 2023. Who should you bet at the BMW Championship? Here is your weekly golf deep dive with course analysis, weather forecast, player profiles, and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

Wilmington Country Club is being played as the South course, although it is in fact played as a modified order. The course is a lengthy 7,534 yards par-71. A lot of this yardage falls into the par 5s measuring 582, 634, and 649 yards. It is worth noting the 634-yard 12th also has water short and therefore will take an extremely brave player to go for the green.

Further, three par 4s play over 490 yards and three of the par 3s are over 200 yards. On a typical PGA Tour course players will hit on average four approach shots over 200 yards, where we expect 7 shots to fall into that long iron range here. Two par 4s are less than 400 yards, with the 16th likely to play with forward tees for at least two rounds and be drivable. Doglegs feature in both directions and the ability to move the ball with ease is a prerequisite here.

Fairways are relatively narrow and the rough shifts from 2.5in bermudagrass last week to 4in bluegrass here. Although rough is longer in length, bluegrass tends to be a little less penal and more predictable than bermudgrass. I suspect power will be an essential element to success this week. This will come into play not just in driving distance, but the ability to move the ball forward sometimes substantial distances if finding the rough.

Greens revert to bentgrass here and are almost comically large at 8,100 sq ft. Surpassed only by the Plantation Course as host of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, those are some of the largest greens seen on tour. They will play relatively fast at 12.5 on the stimpmeter and display some of the signature undulating nature seen in other Robert Trent Jones designs.

Comp Courses and Key Metrics

Patrick Cantlay in his press conference stated: “This golf course is definitely just like last year, extremely distance biased. You’ve got to hit it as far as you can and hit a lot of fairways.” Best recipe according to him is topping the field for driving distance, but noted fairways a little narrower than Caves Valley, and then a hot putting week. He stated greens are very true, “all about finding the right line and if you hit a solid putt, it will go in”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H03kfzv_QEs

Alongside last year’s host Caves Valley, the course profiles very similar to Quail Hollow both visually and in terms of the setup of the course itself. Trump National Doral also holds some comparable features, alongside a similar scorecard and length.

The 3M Open, Rocket Mortgage Classic, and John Deere Classic all features courses with bluegrass rough and larger than average bentgrass greens. The Arnold Palmer Invitational and Genesis Invitational feature as comparisons with relatively lengthy setups combined with some of the larger greens on tour.

The key metrics I am looking for this week are driving distance, performance on approach over 200 yards, and approach putt performance. The latter accounts for the fact lag putting will play a factor for all players at some point of the tournaments. I suspect a winning score of -16 to -18 may do the trick on what on first appearance presents a slightly more penal test than previous iterations of this event.

Weather Forecast

With a condensed field and all players starting off the first tee, the weather plays less of a factor here than in other weeks. Decent enough rain in the lead-up will prevent the course getting too firm. I expect some light rain Wednesday evening, Friday evening, and during the morning on Saturday as well.

The winds appear calmest first thing in the morning before building throughout the day. The wind does not look significantly penal though, peaking at 8-10mph prevailing with gusts of 15-20mph in the afternoons.

https://www.windy.com/39.794/-75.597?39.313,-75.597,8,m:eLuad3b

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Headliners

– Rory McIlroy 4pt E/W $13.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)

– Scottie Scheffler 2pt E/W $21.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)

– Joaquin Niemann 1pt E/W $41.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Joaquin Niemann 2pt Top 10 $4.50 (TAB)

Sleepers

– Cameron Davis 0.5pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Cameron Davis 3pt Top 10 $6.00 (TAB)

– Keith Mitchell 0.5pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Keith Mitchell 2pt Top 20 $3.88 (TAB)

– Taylor Pendrith 0.5pt E/W $101.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Taylor Pendrith 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)

– Trey Mullinax 0.5pt E/W $126.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Trey Mullinax 2pt Top 20 $4.00 (William Hill)

– Sebastian Munoz 0.5pt E/W $141.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Sebastian Munoz 1pt Top 10 $8.50 (Bet365)

Player Profiles – Headliners

Rory McIlroy

I’ll start by saying it is incredibly rare for me to find value at the top end of the board. This week we do for a couple of reasons, and hence just three players make the headline picks here. Leading the pack is Rory McIlroy, who provides a compelling case. I’m surprised we find Rory at 13/1 when it would be unsurprising were he priced at high single figures in a smaller 70-man field.

Alongside 4th at the similar Caves Valley course, Rory has won three times at Quail Hollow alongside a runner-up finish and 9 Top 10s there. The missed cut last week holds little concern for me. Firstly, he is perhaps the best driver in the world (alongside Rahm) and lost strokes off the tee for the first time since March 2021.

I don’t expect that happens again, especially given a course last week that was not necessarily 100% suitable. Secondly, by his own admission he did not touch his golf clubs since The Open Championship and indulged in some unhealthy eating. Shaking off that rust, he still gained on approach to the field, marking 9 tournaments in a row doing so. In the prior 8 events, he has finished no worse than 19th and finished 8th or better in all 4 Majors.

Rory has won 5 FedEx Cup playoff events, beaten only by Dustin Johnson (6) and joined by Tiger Woods (4) as the only golfers with more than 2 FedEx Cup wins. He is also a two-time FedEx Cup champion. A late charge, at a course which should suit his game perfectly, would not surprise in what has been an exceptional year.

Scottie Scheffler

It was a close-run thing for the second spot in, with Scheffler just edging Rahm for value. I have a fair price on Scheffler at 15/1 in this field, so to snatch him at 21/1 is excellent value where Rahm is substantially shorter.

Missing the cut on the number last week, most of his lost strokes came from the putter with his worst putting performance since January 2021. We know how volatile a stat putting can be and starting the tournament missing 4ft and 8ft putts led to some understandable frustration. In fact, Scheffler lost -4.65 strokes putting in that first round but gained +0.76 strokes in his 2nd round in a much-improved putting performance.

Scheffler also beats Rahm in a few key metrics for me. He is 70th on tour this season for Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 71st for approach proximity from 200+ yards, and 3rd for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards.

Having gained strokes OTT in all but one tournament this year, Scheffler also has gained on approach in his prior 13 tournaments (discount The Players under an extremely windy draw bias). Considering he spent much of his 2nd round chasing the cutline at a penal approach course to smaller greens, a quick rebound can be expected here. Having spent 23 weeks as the FedEx Cup leader, he will have the added motivation having lost that spot following Will Zalatoris’ victory last week.

Joaquin Niemann

One of the most impressive performances of the season came with Niemann decimating Riviera on his way to victory at the Genesis Invitational. Already regarded amongst the game’s elite, the supremely talented Chilean is still just 23 years old. A strong performance this week would be more than just reward for a great season.

Last week, Niemann lost strokes in his first round before finding some incredible form with his irons. Gaining +2.90, +2.11, and +1.38 on approach for the next three rounds saw him finish third in that metric for the week. This followed gaining on approach in 5/6 of his recent tournaments (4 of those by 4 strokes or more) and complimented by gaining OTT in all tournaments this year. Notably, he has gained on the field for accuracy in 2 of his last three suggesting his ball-striking is peaking at the perfect time.

That prodigious distance will come in handy here, with sitting 6th on tour this season for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards another pointer. 3rd, 29th, and 31st at this tournament point to a level of comfort at the end of the calendar and all came in earlier seasons whilst still developing to the player we find today.

Player Profiles – Sleepers

Cameron Davis

Cam Davis arrives here off the back of 5 finishes of 16th or better. He has gained on approach at every event since the Phoenix Open back in February 2022 and gained OTT in 9/10 most recent tournaments.

Plenty long off the tee and with his irons, Davis is also quietly a decent putter and gains on the field majority of appearances (15/19 tournaments in 2022). Bentgrass also tends to be his best putting surface. Davis sits 38th on tour for Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 29th in approach proximity from 200+ yards, and 42nd for birdie or better percentage 200+ yards.

Davis is currently 52nd in FedEx Cup rankings and realistically needs a top 5 finish to make next week’s Tour Championship. The talented 27-year-old is certainly arriving in great form to try and mark his first appearance in the season ending tournament with a strong showing here.

Keith Mitchell

Another who is plenty long off the tee, Mitchell arrives after 4 consecutive finishes of 32nd or better and having gained on approach for 5 straight appearances. He has also gained for driving accuracy substantially in his last 2 events, again pointing to some strong fundamentals to his game of late.

Mitchell has some elite form at the comparable Quail Hollow with 3rd, 8th, and 34th (in his rookie year) for his appearances there. Mitchel is 18th on tour for par 3 scoring 200-225 yards and 41st for approach proximity and 45th birdie or better percentage at 200+ yards. Sitting 38th in the rankings, he is in a great excellent position for an inaugural appearance at the Tour Championship.

Taylor Pendrith

In an excellent rookie season, Taylor Pendrith has performed admirably well since stepping up to the PGA Tour despite a significant rib injury in March. Pendrith halted a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 13th or better last week, in a performance which reads on paper worse than it perhaps was. The majority of his strokes were lost with the putter but he was at field average for approach.

In that recent run of high-end finishes was a 2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, when losing to a hot-form Tony Finau. That was an improved putting performance, gaining +4.48 strokes putting, and came on bentgrass greens as we see here this week. 26th on tour this year for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards could see a perfect fit here.

Having gained off the tee at every tournament in 2022, Pendrith is able to maintain his extremely long distance whilst remaining accurate. It is a rare combination that could be extremely valuable this week at triple figure odds on offer.

Trey Mullinax

Having delivered for us so beautifully last week, it is hard to resist returning to Mullinax. I tipped him last week at 250/1, so being cut to 125/1 is not drastic given a 5th place and the field nearly halving here.

In that performance, he gained +6.04 strokes approach to sit 7th in the field alongside 4th for SG: T2G. Losing -1.83 strokes putting in the 4th round was what put paid to his chances, with even an average day on the greens likely to have seen him go even closer to victory.

It is somewhat understandable for a player finding himself in that position for the first time at the pointy end of the season. Mullinax has gained strokes putting in 5 straight tournaments. Notably, he is 3rd on tour for approach putt performance meaning these larger bentgrass greens hold less of a concern for me here.

Another top 20 would not surprise and, sitting 41st in FedEx Cup rankings, would see him qualify for next week’s finale. It would cap a remarkable 5 weeks. Following being informed 2 months ago that his father, who was diagnosed was stage 4 cancer, was now cancer-free it would make an emotional realisation of this long hitter’s potential.

Sebastian Munoz

Finally, I will end with a somewhat speculative play on Sebastian Munoz at big odds. Munoz has a reasonably strong record in previous BMW Championships, with 29th last year complimenting an 8th place in 2020 where he made the Tour Championship in his second year on tour.

Munoz had a massive spike on approach last week, having lost on approach in his two prior tournaments to pop when gaining +5.00 strokes. This was his best approach week since the AT&T Byron Nelson, where he finished 3rd having been the first-round leader. It was accompanied by a big jump in driving accuracy, where he does usually excel but the 15% gain was substantial. A return to bentgrass greens holds appeal for a sharp return to form here.

3 years ago 0 comments

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2022 FedEx St Jude Championship: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

In an eventful week for golf in what has been an eventful year, the PGA Tour moves from the regular season to our final event with a cutline in the 2021-2022 season. The FedEx Cup playoffs is now a truncated three tournament race to further increased purses and the field is obviously stacked.

Another week at the Wyndham Championship where he had the leader throughout the first few rounds, before we wound up with the runner-up. In this case, we had Sungjae Im at 16/1 and John Huh on the card. At 175/1, the Huh place money was actually better odds than those available on Tom Kim for a historic and decisive victory.

Three consecutive weeks with our picks firmly in contention, it is only a matter of time for one of our golfers to convert for our 10th outright in 2022. Who should you bet for the FedEx Cup St Jude Championship? This is your weekly golf deep dive with course analysis, weather predictions, and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

It is worth noting immediately that although TPC Southwind has featured on the PGA Tour since 1989, the name of the tournament has changed over the years. It is best to view history for the course rather than tournament name and also noting the event featured significantly more difficult fields when it became a WGC event in 2019. This will be the first iteration as the opening event of the play-offs and it remains to be seen how the course superintendents intend to prepare the course.

The course is a long 7,243 yards par-70 when, for perspective, we would regard 7,400 a fairly average length for a par-72. Fairways are on the narrow side and water features in abundance on the course. Rough is 2.5in bermudagrass which sounds short but we only need to look to last week to remember bermuda is more penal than other varietals and will produce flyers.

Greens feature bermudagrass and are extremely small at just 4,300 sq ft on average. With smaller greens, less reliance on putting statistics and a bump in around the green preference is obvious. A short look at those with course history tells us ball-striking, particularly approach and driving accuracy, is the key to success. Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger, Justin Thomas, and Aaron Rai are excellent iron players and give a flavour to the ideal profile.

Relatively unique to TPC Southwind is the zoysiagrass fairways. This rare and sturdy grass is used infrequently and typically only in drier climes as it requires less water. Being a stronger grass it does have some unique characteristics. Golfers have commented that balls can sometimes be “teed” up, and other times settle down a little to produce surprise flyers. A winning score is likely to be in the -12 to -15 range.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OehJ__lbGBk

Comp Courses

The only other regular tour events with zoysia are TPC Craig Ranch (2021 and 2022 host of AT&T Byron Nelson) and East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship host). Bellerive Country Club, host of the 2018 PGA Championship, also features zoysia fairways. It is worth noting Brooks Koepka won both that event and the 2019 FedEx St Jude Invitational here. A shame he couldn’t be here this week.

Weather Forecast

The lead in to this event has seen a lack of rain in the past few months with July one of the hottest on record. The course was likely to play extremely firm and fast. Golfers will be grateful that today (Wednesday) the course has received a decent amount of rain. More rain (albeit light drizzle) is expected Thursday.

Winds are expected to be light all week, with single digit prevailing winds and gusts only in the teens. There does not appear to be any weather draw to play.

Thursday morning may provide the softest conditions following Wednesday’s rain, it is not predicted to be a significant enough edge to play.

https://www.windy.com/35.054/-89.779?34.981,-81.969,6,m:eDAadFx

FedEx St Jude Championship Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

– Will Zalatoris 2pt E/W $29.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 4pt Top 20 $2.25 (Bet365)

– Collin Morikawa 2pt E/W $34.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 4pt Top 20 $2.50 (Bet365)

– Russell Henley 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)
– 1pt Top 20 $3.30 (TAB)

– Corey Conners 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (Bet365)

– Aaron Wise 0.5pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $7.00 (Bet365)
– 2pt Top 20 $3.60 (Bet365)

– Scott Stallings 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365 10 places 1/7 odds)
– 3pt Top 20 $4.33 (TAB)

– Troy Merritt 0.5pt E/W $201.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $13.00 (TAB)
– 2pt Top 20 $6.00 (TAB)

– Tom Hoge 0.5pt E/W $161.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 3pt Top 20 $6.50 (TAB)

– Trey Mullinax 0.5pt E/W $251.00 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 3pt Top 40 $3.75 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Will Zalatoris

Elite ball-striking with less emphasis on putting screams Zalatoris. Gaining on approach in 17/18 strokeplay tournaments this year is obvious for even the casual fan. There are a few other indicators that jump out for me this week.

Zalatoris typically loses a little for driving accuracy on the field. He has gained on the field in his last two events and improved his approach play concurrently, suggesting positive improvements in his ball-striking. Rightly his putting has been regarded has his weakest aspect. However, this year he has gained multiple strokes putting at all US based majors this year suggesting that when the pressure is on he can lift his game. Anything above field average putting should see Zalatoris in the top 10.

Performances of 20th and 21st over the last two weeks in weaker fields is a positive for me. Neither of those courses are necessarily the best fits for him, and to see him still playing well in mediocre PGA Tour events suggests a peak for playoffs is on the cards. Especially at an event he finished 8th in last year when returning from injury and not at 100%.

Finally, Zalatoris fired his caddy mid-tournament last week. We often see a change in a player’s team result in immediate results. His caddy is his short-game coach Josh Gregory, and I can think of no one better to be on the bag. Zalatoris spoke of the benefit having Josh assist with reading putts and may just be what is needed for a win this week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc3uWDSNYq4

Collin Morikawa

Morikawa arrives off the back of two missed cuts and may fly under the radar this week. I immediately note that this was at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship, with unique bunkering and greens meaning this poses little concern to me. I rather focus on the fact he remains one of the best iron players on Tour, gaining over 5 strokes on approach when last sighted.

His most recent performance in mainland USA was a 5th at the US Open, which is complimented by a 5th at The Masters as well. We know Morikawa can lift for these big events and the fundamentals of his game are solid for this test with long accurate driving and precise irons.

We have previously seen him play well at end of the year, winning the season ending DP World Tour Championship in 2021 to claim both the title and the Race to Dubai.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHIDF7avNQw

He also held a 10th there in 2020 and a 6th in 2020 at the Tour Championship, which features zoysiagrass fairways, in his first full year on tour. Morikawa will be acutely aware this is first year he has not had a win by this point. Motivation will be plentiful and a strong performance would not surprise to boost his current 22nd position on the FedEx Cup rankings.

Russell Henley

Another who profiles perfectly for TPC Southwind, Henley arrives off the back of a 10th and 5th place finish. He has hit his straps in both approach and driving accuracy, leading the field last week in approach suggesting he is peaking at the perfect time.

Henley has a 12th and 3rd in his two Tour Championship appearances on the zoysia fairways of East Lake to compliment a 7th here. Henley has a history of playing well in the first playoff event, having been first-round leader at the 2020 and 2017 Northern Trust. The question with Henley is always the putter. Noting 2/3 of his victories have come on bermudagrass provides some positive guidance, as does the Honda Classic win on a water filled course where accuracy is paramount.

Corey Conners

Sitting 29th on the FedEx Cup standings, Conners will be focused on two strong performances to ensure he makes the Tour Championship field.

A similar profile to Morikawa, Conners consistently gains on the field for driving accuracy and approach which is the precise metrics we are focused on this week. Where he lacks his the putting and around the green, but it is worth noting he has a tendency to perform better on smaller greens.

A notable example would be Harbour Town, where he form of 21-4-12 in his last three appearances. Providing an opportunity to shake off the cobwebs, the 21st last week was his first appearance in 3 weeks for a golfer where I have a fair price of 55/1.

Aaron Wise

Another who has a positive expected value in my models, the renowned iron play of Wise holds appeal on a course which should suit.

Although his first appearance on this track, Wise has a history of playing well in the opening playoff event with three made cuts from three attempts including a 5th. In his first tune up in three weeks, Wise managed a 13th at the Wyndham Championship despite not having his best week on approach. Where he did gain was on driving accuracy and putting, so any regression to his above average approach play will hold appeal here.

Scott Stallings

Entering in excellent form, Stallings arrives with 4 consecutive top 13 finishes. He is on offer at triple figures despite this, on a track he has excellent history. Stallings has 6/8 made cuts here, including a runner up. He enters in much better form than the majority of those instances, with the majority coming off missed cuts and finishes worse than 40th place.

Stallings has now gained on approach in 5 consecutive events and seen a spike in his driving accuracy for his last three weeks. The ball-striking has been excellent, and he arrives to a course he has gained on and around the greens on multiple occasions. Zoysiagrass form also adds to the credentials, with 25th and 3rd at TPC Craig Ranch in both the PGA Tour events held there thus far.

Troy Merritt

Sitting 62nd in the FedEx Cup rankings, Troy Merritt needs a good week here to ensure he can continue in the playoffs. He arrives here having gained multiple strokes on approach for three consecutive weeks and a big spike in driving accuracy.

Merritt has volatility with the putter, which is a positive. It provides upside at these odds, as the ability to spike with the putter when combined with the ball-striking suggest a serious run at the top is possible. The opportunity comes at a track where he has already finished 12th and 2nd, complimented by a 7th at TPC Craig Ranch this year.

Tom Hoge

Although the 160s I got on Hoge on opening are no longer available, he is highlighted here for transparency. He may still be available for Top 20 opportunities as well as a lower DFS play.

Hoge led the field in approach on last appearance when gaining more than 10 strokes on the field with his irons. He has now gained for three consecutive weeks on approach, and 4/5 for driving accuracy. He holds a best finish of 12th here and finished with a 17th at TPC Craig Ranch this year. With an inaugural victory coming at Pebble Beach, as well as a return of his excellent approach play, this event may come at the perfect time for him.

Trey Mullinax

Finally, a speculative play on Mullinax seems in order. Mullinax won just 4 weeks ago and has now gained on approach in three consecutive weeks. He returns to a course where he has finished 6th and 18th in bigger (albeit weaker) fields. Both of those finishes came after a string of missed cuts, so arriving here in much better form holds sufficient appeal at big odds.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: FedEx St. Jude Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Here are the links to my two podcasts over at Win Daily: Bettor Golf & PGA DraftCast.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($11,000) – We will see where lineups end up going with how I want to allocate ownership in certain spots, but Rory McIlroy is one of three golfers up top that I want to find a way to back this week on DraftKings. The Irishman enters the contest having produced five straight top-19 finishes since the Memorial a few months back, and while I do have some concerns with how the putting splits will transfer over to Bermuda since it has historically been his worst surface, we have seen players win this title in the past by excelling with their ball-striking and losing strokes on the greens.

Scottie Scheffler ($10,800) – I think Scheffler wins this event because of his ball-striking and ability to scramble from out of the rough. That is a combination that is going to suit TPC Southwind perfectly.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) – It will be hard to play more than three options up top for me with how aggressively I want to get to Scottie Scheffler, but it was a tough decision between Cantlay and Xander. I decided to roll with Cantlay because I do believe it will create slightly more leverage than the current ownership is inferring, but there wasn’t much of an edge either way.

Other Thoughts – I am completely out on Justin Thomas and Cameron Smith.

$9,000 Range

Will Zalatoris ($9,500) – Zalatoris and Scheffler will be the two golfers that will push 40%+ for me in my builds.

Jordan Spieth ($9,100) – Spieth’s increase on Bermuda is notable with the flat stick, gaining the second-most of anyone in this field in his expected output.

Viktor Hovland ($9,000) – I wasn’t planning on backing Viktor Hovland this week, but if I believe there is general ease in getting up and down from off the green, Hovland is one of the top candidates to receive a boost in production. The volatility is there for him to miss the cut, but I don’t see much difference between him and Morikawa from an upside perspective.

Other Thoughts: As always seems to be the case with Fitzpatrick, he never quite makes my player pool when push comes to shove, and I decided to go overly aggressive on Zalatoris, which meant Finau was left on the side. It is hard to find much about Tony to dislike if we remove his ownrship.

$8,000 Range

Collin Morikawa ($8,700) -Morikawa ranks first in my model for good drive percentage on difficult-to-hit fairways, and he is also sixth in weighted proximity.

Sungjae Im ($8,500) – The long-term metrics show a correctly priced golfer, but the more recent stuff is pushing Sungjae Im into this zone that places him as a top-five fit for TPC Southwind. As everyone knows by now, I prefer the long-term metrics, but the Bermuda upgrade that Sungjae will receive + the numbers firing on all cylinders does have me drinking the Kool-Aid that there is a chance he walks out of Memphis with his blue suede shoes.

Shane Lowry ($8,300) – The offshore market doesn’t seem to care much for Shane Lowry, but it is hard to ignore his top-10 totals for weighted proximity, ball-striking, weighted par-four scoring and weighted tee-to-green.

Other Thoughts: I can’t take the chalk in every situation, so I will find myself lower on Joohyung Kim and Sam Burns than consensus.

$7,000 Range

Corey Conners ($7,600) – Conners is a perfect stylistic fit for TPC Southwind, as he ranks inside the top-10 in this field for good drive % on difficult-to-hit fairways, GIR percentage, ball striking and strokes gained off the tee.

Adam Scott ($7,500) – A GPP leverage target, Scott grades as one of the better pivots, even if he is correctly priced.

Keegan Bradley ($7,500) – If you only look at Keegan Bradley from a statistical sense, he is one of the better values in the field. Sure, the form and course history does matter, but he is worth a flier in GPP contests.

Harold Varner III ($7,400) – Nobody burns me as frequently as Harold Varner III. I’d be cautious in my exposure.

Adam Hadwin ($7,300) – I don’t know what the upside is for the week, but I do like the leverage.

Brian Harman ($7,200) – A 71st-place showing has made everyone jump off of Brian Harman, who is just a week removed from being the sharpest play on the board at the Wyndham.

Additional Thoughts: You can view my model for additional thoughts!

$6,000 Range

Rickie Fowler $6,400, Mark Hubbard $6,900, Lucas Glover $6,300, Matthew NeSmith $6,500, Stewart Cink $6,600, Lee Hodges $6,400, Russell Knox $6,500, C.T. Pan $6,400 – I tried to list as many options as I could to go with a Scheffler/Zalatoris stack. Some of the routes are safer than others.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Wyndham Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

We had Kenny Kim on this week’s PGA DraftCast + a short episode of Bettor Golf where Nick and I ran through the entire board for DFS and betting.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Sungjae Im ($10,500) – Sungjae’s form has quietly come back around, as we have seen him average 3.58 shots with his irons and 3.85 with his driver over his last four tournaments with stats present. A significant result might be around the corner, and the presence of Bermuda greens has been the surface where he has found his best success in the past.

Other Considerations – You can make a strong argument for anyone in this range, but with Sungjae pushing 20% as of Wednesday afternoon, I likely will stick my flag in the sand for him and find myself aggressively overweight on the golfer that I think is most likely to win this event.

$9,000 Range

Russell Henley ($9,800) – It is hard to go against my model’s number one golfer for upside. I don’t love the ownership, but the potential is there for him to win this event, which is noteworthy enough to keep him in the pool, especially in single-entry type builds that feature reduced-sized fields.

Corey Conners ($9,600) – The top-ranked golfer in my model for scoring at easy courses, Conners’ ball-striking is perfectly equipped for a test such as Sedgefield.

Tyrrell Hatton ($9,400) – Hatton is a favorite in all his head-to-head matchups at the credible offshore books. I don’t love the price tag, but you are able to create some leverage if you are willing to play him at 15%+ in your MME contests. I would avoid him in other game types.

Other Considerations: Adam Scott ($9,200) and Harold Varner III ($9,000). If you can’t tell already, the entire 9k+ range is worth consideration, but I am picking and choosing my spots with the highlighted players since 1. we can’t play everyone and 2. chalk is condensing in all the same zones.

$8,000 Range

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,400) – Bezuidenhout ranks seventh in this field in proximity between 150-175 yards, and while you can say that is a wonky statistic that doesn’t tell the entire picture, the total driving and putting should be viewed as reminiscent of past winners at the track.

Brian Harman ($8,300) – One of the sharper movers at the offshore books, Harman is the only golfer in this field that ranks inside the top 20 in my model for weighted par-four scoring, overall weighted scoring, weighted total driving and fast Bermuda + three-putt percentage.

Aaron Wise ($8,100) – Nick said it best on Bettor Golf, “Wise is playing the best golf of his career and is priced next to players beneath him in stature.” In fairness, I paraphrased the hell out of that quote, so much so that it probably shouldn’t have been in quotations, but the overall outline of that sentiment rings true.

Other Thoughts: My model loves Joohyung Kim ($8,600), and he is my preferred of the two Kim’s next to each other, but I will find myself neutral because of the hefty ownership.

$7,000 Range

Mark Hubbard ($7,900) – Hubbard’s most significant deterrent during most events is his lack of distance, but the ability to club down at Sedgefield should give him a boost so he can take advantage of his seventh-place mark in weighted proximity – a total that is 31 spots better than his expected production at a random course.

Jason Day ($7,800) – Yes, I am the king of maintaining the bit weekly for Webb Simpson and Jason Day, but the weighted proximity is improved for Day to mimic Sedgefield – not to mention the shortened layout and Donald Ross design should fit right into his wheelhouse.

Kevin Streelman ($7,600) – Streelman cracks the top-10 of my model when running it for purely upside, which is enough for me to warrant him in GPP contests.

Adam Svensson ($7,500) – As much as I want to fade the chalk, my model likes him too much to ignore.

Alex Smalley ($7,500) – Smalley jumps from 70th to 18th when moving my metrics from ‘driving accuracy’ into ‘good drive percentage.’ That means he has found success in the past when clubbing down, and even if the ownership is trickling up, I like the potential he brings to the table.

Brendon Todd ($7,500) – I worry a little about the irons here for Todd, as he has lost in his past three starts, but this is one of those catch-22 spots where the approach metrics are almost always bad, and the production only gets worse at venues where he can’t take advantage of his accuracy. Thankfully, the second part of that situation will be negated at Sedgefield, with Todd grading third in my model for weighted total driving

C.T. Pan ($7,400) – Pan’s short game went in reverse during his outing in Detroit. Let’s not overreact to one missed cut.

Harris English ($7,300) – Reduced ownership on a golfer that has produced three top-39 finishes at this course over his past three attempts. I know the current form is worrisome, but English is a GPP-only target that does have upside.

Russell Knox ($7,200) – I am not sure I have ever gotten Russell Knox correct, but first in GIR percentage and fifth in overall ball-striking should suit him well at this week’s course.

Andrew Putnam ($7,000) – Putnam’s off-the-tee metrics are 59 spots better over his last 24 rounds compared to his two-year running data, and he ranks fourth in this field for weighted par-four scoring.

Michael Thompson ($7,000) – Three top-26 finishes in a row for Thompson, who has the game to find success at a driving accuracy contest.

Additional Thoughts: You can view my model for additional thoughts!

$6,000 Range

Justin Lower $6,700, Zach Johnson $6,600

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Rocket Mortgage

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Here are the links to Bettor Golf and PGA DraftCast

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Patrick Cantlay ($10,700) – Cantlay ranks first in the field for par-five birdie or better percentage and is also the top golfer for overall birdie or better. With over 40 players an event reaching double-digit totals, expect the American to use that strength to his advantage, and he also grades as the fourth-rated putter in this field to mimic the track.

Will Zalatoris ($10,400) – Is a birdie fest the best venue for Will Zalatoris? Maybe not. But the American does grade as the top player in the field for expected opportunities created, which means if the putter can be marginally above his baseline expectation, there is a chance he runs away with the title. I am willing to bet on that upside at a reduced ownership percentage.

Other Considerations – I have no issues going back to Tony Finau at ($10,600), although I am out on Cameron Young.

$9,000 Range

Max Homa ($9,900) – Homa’s ability to create opportunities and make the putts places him third in this field – not to mention the par-five scoring is also inside the top-15.

Cameron Davis ($9,700) – I don’t care for the ownership, but I love the statistical profile. Davis has a legit chance to compete on the first page of the leaderboard again.

Other Targets: Adam Scott ($9,300)

$8,000 Range

Adam Hadwin ($8,400) – I am always interested in golfers at sub-10 percent ownership who possess top-10 equity in the $8,000 range.

Webb Simpson ($8,300) – Just consider me a broken record at this point. Simpson’s statistical makeup is too good to continue this poor run. The breakout will happen before long.

Other Thoughts: Russell Henley ($8,200) – GPP-Only. Mark Hubbard ($8,000).

$7,000 Range

Si Woo Kim ($7,900) – Kim is always intriguing when he is trending around five percent because of his upside. You would be taking a shot on some of the unknown, but we have gotten extremely positive returns in the past when doing that with him.

Chris Kirk ($7,800) – The offshore market loves Chris Kirk.

Joohyung Kim ($7,600) – The price remains similar from last week’s 3M Open, but the ownership will be cut in half.

C.T. Pan ($7,300) – The ball-striking has started to pick up for Pan, who has gained with his irons in 10 of his last 12 and off the tee in seven of nine.

Rickie Fowler ($7,300) – Fowler graded as a positive value in all iterations of my model.

Michael Gligic ($7,000) – There are some concerns with how the long-term metrics compare to the recent form for Gligic, which always means the ground underneath him could sink at any moment, but his top-40 statistical rank over a two-year sample size is good enough for me to trust that the floor is higher than you might expect.

Austin Smotherman ($7,000) – Smotherman improves 26 spots in expected putting on this particular green complex – something that could help since he is one of the best ball-strikers in the field.

Additional Thoughts: Chris Gotterup ($7,400) – I have no issues with the ownership. You will have to make a decision on how aggressive you want to get. Stewart Cink ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Lucas Glover $6,900, John Huh $6,800, Kelly Kraft $6,700, Matt Wallace $6,700, Justin Lower $6,600, Andrew Novak $6,400, Aaron Baddeley $6,200, Seung-Yul Noh $6,000

*** Noh is my favorite dart throw on the board

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: 3M Open

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

There is no Bettor Golf Podcast this week, but here is the link to the PGA DraftCast.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Sungjae Im ($10,000) – You can’t go wrong with anyone in this range, but Sungjae Im would be my preferred choice since I think we ultimately receive the lowest ownership on him. Sometimes it is just a numbers game when there are only seven players priced above $9,000, but there is a reason all three golfers in this section rank inside the top three of my model for upside.

Other Considerations – Tony Finau $10,500, Hideki Matsuyama $10,300

$9,000 Range

Maverick McNealy ($9,300) – Bentgrass courses that allow birdie-making opportunities has always been where McNealy has thrived, and the pieces feel like they might finally be coming together for him to spring his first victory on the PGA Tour.

Other Targets: I am okay with the idea of finding myself underweight to everyone else. A start of McNealy as your first man in or one of the big-three + McNealy is my ideal roster construction at the 3M.

$8,000 Range

Cameron Tringale ($8,800) – Cameron Tringale feels like one of the better pivots on the board because of his reduction in ownership compared to the rest of the range.

Martin Laird ($8,200) – My intrigue around Laird is coming because of his inflated price tag that has reduced his ownership percentage.

Other Thoughts: Cameron Davis ($8,900) – I don’t love the ownership, but there are ways to be aggressive playing him.

$7,000 Range

Ryan Palmer($7,900) – Palmer ranks sixth in my model at TPC courses and is also second on short par-fours – a range he will get five times at some of the more accessible locations at the track.

Emiliano Grillo ($7,600) – The stats always look better than the finishes, but it is a venue like TPC Twin Cities that could allow Grillo to shine.

Austin Smotherman ($7,400) – Smotherman is the number one ball-striker in my model when I recalculated the metrics to mimic the course.

Troy Merritt ($7,400) – The hometown narrative is starting to catch some steam, which I could do without, but the upside metrics are percolating through the page.

Joohyung Kim ($7,300) – Kim is 28/1 to win the event. That has to count for something when every other golfer priced next to him is between 80-100/1.

Danny Lee ($7,200) – Lee is always a bad shot away from potentially withdrawing, but sub-five percent is low enough to bet on the upside.

Tyler Duncan ($7,100) – Duncan grades inside the top-10 of this field in weighted ball-striking and weighted par-four scoring.

Tom Hoge ($7,100) – The classic case of recent form versus long-term metrics. I don’t love the current ownership projection, but Hoge’s upside is probably higher than anyone else in this section if the pieces do come together.

Callum Tarren ($7,000) – Tarren is top-25 in this field for birdie or better and opportunities gained, and the recent putting surge puts him in a position where he only needs a few pieces to come together to land a top-end result.

Nate Lashley ($7,000) – Lashley ranks first in my model for par-four scoring in this field.

Joseph Bramlett ($7,000) – There is little to no floor for Bramlett, but the potential is there for a golfer that will struggle to exceed two or three percent in popularity

Additional Thoughts: You can use my model to find any plays you might like. This section is massive.

$6,000 Range

Justin Lower $6,900, Satoshi Kodaira $6,700, Kevin Chappell $6,600, Jim Knous $6,500, Seung Yul Noh $6,300

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Open Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Here are the links to my shows this week. PGA DraftCast & Bettor Golf Podcast.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($11,100) – Rory McIlroy has averaged 8.26 shots with his ball-striking over his past five tournaments and enters the week as the second-ranked golfer in my model for weighted current form over the last 10 weeks. As you might expect, Xander Schauffele tops that list.

Other Considerations – Scottie Scheffler ($11,000) – We have multiple routes we can go when trying to get contrarian, but I will pinpoint in on Scottie Scheffler as my preferred target when trying to get unique up top. We are seeing Jon Rahm grade as the top non-Rory golfer on the board at most offshore shops, but I will trust my numbers with both being extremely close. It is worth noting that Spieth is a massive dog to most competitors.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,900) – If pricing had come out after the Scottish Open, I don’t think it is outlandish to say Schauffele could have been the second man on the salary scale.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,400) – The perception of bad form in majors tends to hurt Patrick Cantlay in these spots when it comes to his price and ownership. Thankfully for us, those are beneficial things we can take advantage of from a DFS perspective, and there aren’t too many better values you will find on the board at his projected 10% going rate.

Dustin Johnson ($9,200) – The high-end metrics from Dustin Johnson are phenomenal, as we see him rank first in weighted tee-to-green, fourth in par-four scoring, second in total driving and fourth in weighted proximity

Other Targets: Cameron Smith ($9,500) is in play for GPPs.

$8,000 Range

Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) – Offshore markets love Tommy Fleetwood, and he is one only four players in the $8,000 range to grade as a positive value for me compared to his price. My next mention would be the other top-end choice, but the reduction we get in ownership from Fleetwood to Finau probably makes him a better DFS target when directly comparing. For what it is worth, Fleetwood is a marginal favorite over Dustin Johnson in head-to-head matchups.

Tony Finau ($8,400) – Finau will likely be one of the two or three highest owned players, but the price is right, and the safety should be there after he has provided five top-27 finishes at the Open during his last five attempts.

Other Thoughts: Sungjae Im ($8,300) – Nothing but a GPP contrarian dart throw.

$7,000 Range

Adam Scott ($7,700) – Scott’s ability to putt from off the surface should generate a massive boost in potential. Offshore markets are not in love with him when looking directly at head-to-head battles, but the outright totals have been ticking in the sharp direction.

Webb Simpson ($7,600) – I maintain my belief that the results for Webb Simpson. The American ranks 10th in this field when it comes to three-putt avoidance on these slow, systematic tests, and we also get top-five outputs in windy conditions and my reweighed par-four scoring.

Tiger Woods ($7,500) – The days where Tiger Woods can win at a standard Par 72 probably are long behind us, but these quirky tests that enhance par-four scoring and reduce par-five performances can still be conducive for him to find success.

Paul Casey ($7,500) – Enjoy the best minute splice of PGA DraftCast history.

Russell Henley ($7,200) – If Augusta is a comp course to St. Andrews, Henley should be right at home. The weighted proximity places him inside the top-10 of this field, and the driving accuracy should create extra rollout.

Thomas Pieters ($7,200) – Distance + short iron play was not a category that I merged together, but Pieters graded 12th in this field from those two factors.

Additional Thoughts: Marc Leishman ($7,700), Abraham Ancer ($7,600), Sergio Garcia ($7,400), Gary Woodland ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Keith Mitchell ($6,900), Kevin Kisner ($6,900), Stewart Cink ($6,800), Guido Migliozzi ($6,800), Mackenzie Hughes ($6,800), Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700), Garrick Higgo ($6,700), Wyndham Clark ($6,600), Phil Mickelson ($6,600), Zach Johnson ($6,500), Keita Nakajima ($6,200)

3 years ago 0 comments

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