There is no Bettor Golf Podcast this week, but here is the link to the PGA DraftCast.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Sungjae Im ($10,000) – You can’t go wrong with anyone in this range, but Sungjae Im would be my preferred choice since I think we ultimately receive the lowest ownership on him. Sometimes it is just a numbers game when there are only seven players priced above $9,000, but there is a reason all three golfers in this section rank inside the top three of my model for upside.
Other Considerations – Tony Finau $10,500, Hideki Matsuyama $10,300
Maverick McNealy ($9,300) – Bentgrass courses that allow birdie-making opportunities has always been where McNealy has thrived, and the pieces feel like they might finally be coming together for him to spring his first victory on the PGA Tour.
Other Targets: I am okay with the idea of finding myself underweight to everyone else. A start of McNealy as your first man in or one of the big-three + McNealy is my ideal roster construction at the 3M.
Cameron Tringale ($8,800) – Cameron Tringale feels like one of the better pivots on the board because of his reduction in ownership compared to the rest of the range.
Martin Laird ($8,200) – My intrigue around Laird is coming because of his inflated price tag that has reduced his ownership percentage.
Other Thoughts: Cameron Davis ($8,900) – I don’t love the ownership, but there are ways to be aggressive playing him.
Ryan Palmer($7,900) – Palmer ranks sixth in my model at TPC courses and is also second on short par-fours – a range he will get five times at some of the more accessible locations at the track.
Emiliano Grillo ($7,600) – The stats always look better than the finishes, but it is a venue like TPC Twin Cities that could allow Grillo to shine.
Austin Smotherman ($7,400) – Smotherman is the number one ball-striker in my model when I recalculated the metrics to mimic the course.
Troy Merritt ($7,400) – The hometown narrative is starting to catch some steam, which I could do without, but the upside metrics are percolating through the page.
Joohyung Kim ($7,300) – Kim is 28/1 to win the event. That has to count for something when every other golfer priced next to him is between 80-100/1.
Danny Lee ($7,200) – Lee is always a bad shot away from potentially withdrawing, but sub-five percent is low enough to bet on the upside.
Tyler Duncan ($7,100) – Duncan grades inside the top-10 of this field in weighted ball-striking and weighted par-four scoring.
Tom Hoge ($7,100) – The classic case of recent form versus long-term metrics. I don’t love the current ownership projection, but Hoge’s upside is probably higher than anyone else in this section if the pieces do come together.
Callum Tarren ($7,000) – Tarren is top-25 in this field for birdie or better and opportunities gained, and the recent putting surge puts him in a position where he only needs a few pieces to come together to land a top-end result.
Nate Lashley ($7,000) – Lashley ranks first in my model for par-four scoring in this field.
Joseph Bramlett ($7,000) – There is little to no floor for Bramlett, but the potential is there for a golfer that will struggle to exceed two or three percent in popularity
Additional Thoughts: You can use my model to find any plays you might like. This section is massive.
Justin Lower $6,900, Satoshi Kodaira $6,700, Kevin Chappell $6,600, Jim Knous $6,500, Seung Yul Noh $6,300
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Co-host of the 'Bettor Golf Podcast' and 'PGA Draftcast' here at WinDaily Sports, I was born and raised in Las Vegas, Nevada, and bring a unique approach to how I handicap a DFS or betting slate. I have my own database of statistics that I use to find incongruities in various markets, and I apply that information into a model that is available (and useable) to the public. You can follow me on Twitter @teeoffsports to gain access to that spreadsheet, and I am always more than happy to engage and answer any questions you might have for an event.