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NFLDaily Fantasy Sports

NFL Week 1 Monday Night Showdown DFS DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile
written by Jared Contestabile

It’s the first Monday Night Football Showdown slate of the year, and I’m pumped to get back into it! We have a matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson will face his former team for the first time ever. I have some thoughts, stats, and ideas for you to construct the best Showdown lineup and CASH in big! Let’s get to it.

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Captain or MVP Plays

For me, showdown slates are all about taking a stand. Fade the guys who you don’t see paying off their salaries, and go big, if not 100% on your favorites. We have to find an edge, and I’ll show you all where my head is at for MNF.

Javonte Williams ($15,300 DK, $13,500 FD)

Listen, this one seems pretty simple to me as the top play. While many will go after Russell Wilson and his “revenge” game, I’m taking a stand with a full fade.

Williams profiles as an ideal play for this slate at 1.5X for a few reasons. Game flow should dictate a Broncos win, and potentially an easy one at that. They are favored by 7 right now, and their workhorse is ready to roll.

Last season, no NFL team allowed more fantasy PPG to opposing RB than Seattle, and I don’t see that changing much in 2022. Javonte and Melvin Gordon (more on him in a few) each saw 21 carries inside the 10 yard line last season. They each saw 9 carries inside the 5.

Here’s the thing. Williams is 7 years younger than Gordon, and is clearly the superior back to me. He will be the focal point of the offense, even with Wilson in town. I see this as more of a 70/30 split this season.

The risk here is decent, as Gordon could certainly steal some goal line work, and coach Nathaniel Hackett said the team would “ride the hot hand” this season. While I believe this to be true, Williams is the far superior player and in a smash spot tonight.

DK Metcalf ($12,600 DK, $13,000 FD)

Nobody is arguing that Geno Smith isn’t a significant downgrade from Russell Wilson. That said, you wouldn’t know that by looking at DK’s numbers with Smith under center. Here are his stats in 4 games with Geno in 2021:

5/98/2

6/58/0

2/96/1

6/43/2

I’m a believer that the Broncos will win this one, and likely win it handily. This is a perfect storm for Metcalf. He is big, fast, and may be the best overall athlete in the NFL at the WR position. He is an absolute freak of nature. Tyler Lockett had one big game with Smith under center in ’21, but DK is younger, stronger, and much more of a home-run threat.

If you’re looking for a low-owned option up top, consider Melvin Gordon ($11,100 DK, $10,000 FD). If Hackett is being genuine about riding the hot hand (I mostly believe it), then Gordon could have big upside in a great matchup at low ownership. Geno Smith is another option here, but I’ll likely save him for FLEX, I don’t see him having massive upside at his price tag.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Options

These are the guys I’m considering at the FLEX spots to fill out your roster tonight. All of the above can be considered here as well, and will likely be locking DK and either Williams or Gordon into each of my lineups.

Jerry Jeudy ($8,200 DK, $11,000 FD) and Courtland Sutton ($9,400 DK, $12,000 FD)

With Wilson running the offense in Denver, the expectation is that this offense will take off. I’m a little more hesitant about the passing game than most, but chances are that one of these two will take off this season. Neither was particularly impressive last season, but nothing about the Denver passing attack was.

If I’m choosing between the two, I prefer Sutton because he is a larger target that I’m hoping will see more Red Zone looks from Wilson. Jeudy missed significant time in 2021, so his numbers were mediocre at best. I will be lighter than the field on both of these two, I’d prefer to prioritize my salary by targeting Williams and Metcalf.

Albert Okwuegbunam ($5,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Russell Wilson is well known for his affinity toward his TEs, and although Noah Fant is a higher-priced option in this one, I am all aboard the A.O. train. He is 6’5″, 258 and can run with the best of them. I think he establishes himself as Wilson’s favorite target in the RedZone this season, and that starts tonight. If this game stays close, his upside is even more significant.

Geno Smith ($8,600 DK, $14,000 FD)

If you are of the same thinking as me here, you’re expecting Seattle to play from behind. Geno was efficient in his four games last season, totaling 701 passing yards and a 5/1 TD/INT. Pairing him with Metcalf gives you solid upside in GPPs.

Other Options to Consider

DraftKings makes it far easier to slot in cheap options with upside, and I absolutely love it. Keep an eye on the injury status for Kenneth Walker, as his potential absence could open up some value. If he is out, DeeJay Dallas ($400 DK, $8,000 FD) is a lock for me on DK, and he may make it into my lineup anyway since he is basically free. If Walker plays, he is an option right away, even if he is on a snap count.

I prefer Jason Myers ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) to Brandon McManus ($4,200 DK, $9,500 FD) due to his price savings. Also because Pete Carroll is no stranger to playing it safe and taking points, especially in an underdog role.

Both defenses are in the play tonight. I much prefer the Broncos, and think they are a strong FLEX play and have a significantly higher ceiling.

Marquise Goodwin and Dee Eskridge are deep, deep options that you can take a shot on and hope they break a big one or find the end zone. Just don’t expect any volume unless there is a key injury in this one.

I’m taking my chances with a Rashaad Penny fade. He is hardly a factor at all in the passing game, and draws a very tough matchup. I’m more than comfortable having zero shares tonight, but I’m taking a stand.

Good luck to everyone, I’ll be on Twitter @BigItaly42 watching along tonight. Let’s meet at the top of the leaderboard!

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Sports Betting

Sports Betting Central – Ontario, Canada – Win Daily Sports

Jared Levitt
written by Jared Levitt

Ontario, after much wait, online sports betting is now live! We’ve partnered with all the major sportsbooks to make sure that you have access to the best apps and rewards the industry has. Some of the biggest apps in the industry are already live with some great rewards for signing up!

So whether you like the Maple Leafs, Senators, Raptors, or Blue Jays, you’ll now be able to sit back, relax, and place bets on them from the comfort of your own home!

And to top it off, not only will be able to bet on sports online, you’ll now be able to play casino games online as well!

Below you’ll find the sites and links to their sites to get you started on your betting and casino journey!

BetMGM

BetMGM, the online arm of MGM Resorts International, is one of the leaders in the online sports betting industry. They offer casino games, sports betting, and online poker. It has quickly become one of the most respected brands in the industry and is now live in Ontario!.

Caesars Sportsbook

Caesars Sportsbook is now officially live in Ontario as of 04/04! Caesars offers a wide variety of games and betting types that make it one of the top sportsbooks for its users. Click below to sign up and take advantage of all they have to offer in terms of sports betting or casino.

Bet365

Bet365 is now live in Ontario! Bet365 is a British online gambling company based in the United Kingdom. They offer a wide variety of sports betting and also casino games, making it fun for people on all levels of the betting spectrum. Sign up below to take advantage of all they have to offer!

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Daily Fantasy Sports

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight NFL Plays 01/16

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Claim Offer Here – WINDAILY

Today I’ll be highlighting some of my favorite Monkey Knife Fight plays 

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money!

More or Less – 3.6x

Dak Prescott – 279.5 Passing Yards – More

The 49ers were one of the top teams in the NFL this season against the run.  Because of that, I expect the Cowboys to take the air more often than not today.  If the Cowboys hope to win today, they’re going to need Dak Prescott to continue with the momentum he had to close out the year.  He finished the season with 12 TD passes in his final 3 games. 

The target that Monkey Knife Fight is giving us today is a number that Prescott has reached 2 out of the last 3 weeks and 7 times total this season.  I’m projecting Prescott at around 290 yards passing today as he has the majority of his arsenal of receivers healthy.  More side for me on this prop.

Patrick Mahomes – 278.5 Passing Yards – Less

While I do think the Chiefs pull out the victory in this one, I don’t think that Mahomes gets to his Monkey Knife Fight target of 279 passing yards today.  As Adam noted in his Game by Game breakdown, Mahomes does not do as well when pressured.  The Steelers have this guy named T.J. Watt that likes to put a ton of pressure on quarterbacks. 

If we look at what this Steelers defense has done in recent weeks, it’s pretty impressive.  They have held quarterbacks under 200 yards passing 3 out of the last 4 weeks.  If we look at the 279 yard target today for Mahomes, they Steelers haven’t given up that many passing yards since week 11 against the Chargers.  I’m siding with Less side on this one and I’m not looking back!

More or Less – 3.6x

Travis Kelce – 69.5 Receiving Yards – Less

I highlighted above that the Steelers are extremely solid against the pass.  If we dig down deep to see how they are against tight ends, they’ve been even more solid (if that’s even a thing).  On the year, the Steelers have given up more than 69.5 yards just 4 times and just once over the past 7 weeks. 

There are only a few tight ends with the upside that Kelce provides.  That said, this year has been somewhat of a disappointment for Kelce.  He had his fewest receiving yards and targets since 2017.  He comes into this matchup today having only had 59 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks.  I’m sure Chiefs fans will disagree with me on this one, but I think they keep Kelce in check today.  I’m siding with the Less side on Kelce.

CeeDee Lamb – 68.5 Receiving Yards – More

If you were a fantasy owner of CeeDee Lamb this season you probably were left feeling somewhat disappointed, at least down the stretch.  Although he cracked 1,100 yards in his sophomore season, his production when it mattered most was almost non-existent.  Over the final 7 games of the year he failed to either top 90 yards or find the endzone.  That all changes today in what should be one of the most important games in his young career. 

Monkey Knife Fight is giving us a 68.5 yard target today and while I don’t think he smashes it, I do think he does enough to get north of that number.  Prescott should have himself a day today and that will include using Lamb more than he has in recent weeks.  I like the More side on this one.  

Good luck and hope you make some money today!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! ! 

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NFL

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 17 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 17 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season.  This will be a data-driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Outside of the MNF game, we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend. 

Let’s dig into the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

The leader in targets yesterday was Mr. Davante Adams.  For the third time in 3 weeks, Adams had at least 13 targets.  His 14 targets this weekend were the most he’s had since week 14 vs. the Chiefs.  Adams has just been a model of consistency of late.  His 136 yards marked the fifth time in six games where he exceeded 100 yards receiving.  Aaron Rodgers has hinted that this may be it for him.  If it is, the Rodgers/Adams combo will be sorely missed as it’s been one of the most fun combos to watch.

Last week it was Tee Higgins, this week it was Ja’Marr Chase.  Chase had himself a day yesterday, catching 11 of his 12 targets for a whopping 266 yards and 3 touchdowns.  The season high 266 yards were the second time that Chase has reached at least 200 yards in a game this season. 

His 11 receptions were also a season high for Chase.  With Chase having 12 targets this weekend, it marked the fifth time this season where he had double digit targets.  He’ll look to keep padding his rookie stats next weekend against their state rivals the Browns.

Another guy that had a splendid day in week 17 was Amon-Ra St. Brown.  St. Brown has seen a steady progression in play all season.  He now has 5 straight weeks of at least 11 targets.  His 111 yards this weekend marked the first time in his young career that he reached the coveted 100 yard mark.  While Chase is the lock to win the rookie of the year award, St. Brown has put together a very impressive rookie campaign.  He’ll look to close it out next week vs. the Packers.   

Running Back Targets

This was as boring of a week for pass catching running backs as we’ve had all year.  Not a single running back had double digit targets and none had more than 70 receiving yards.  That said, we’ll still want to highlight at least one person and that will be Alvin Kamara.  This wasn’t quite the season that Kamara had envisioned. 

He’s on pace to have career lows in receptions, receiving yards, and his lowest rushing output since his rookie year.  He did however have a pretty good week 17.  For the first time since week 7, he had a receiving touchdown.  His 68 receiving yards were also the most he’s had since then.  Up next week is a matchup vs. a poor Falcons defense.  He’ll look to end the regular season on a positive note next week vs. the Falcons.

Tight End Targets

With Chris Godwin out and Antonio Brown leaving mid game, Rob Gronkowski became a favorite weapon for Tom Brady.  After averaging 7.5 targets per game in the last 4 games, Gronk reached double digit targets in week 17 with 10.  It marked the second time in the last 3 games he had double digit targets. 

Of the 10 targets, he was able to catch 7 of them for 115 yards.  The 115 yards was just the second time all year he was able to reach the 100 yard mark.  Although he had a solid target and receiving game, this is now the fourth straight week with no touchdowns.  He’ll look to end that streak next week vs. the Panthers.

The only other tight end to have double digit targets in week 17 was Dalton Schultz of the Dallas Cowboys.  Schultz’ 10 targets marked the first time this season he had double digit targets.  His targets have been increasing over the last few weeks as he’s had 8, then 9, and now 10 targets. 

While he had a ton of targets this weekend, he did little with them as he only caught 6 of them for 54 yards and zero touchdowns.  Does Dak target him again this much next week vs. the Eagles in a prime-time game on Saturday night? 

Quarterback Target Share

I know Mike Glennon is tops on the list in terms of using his running backs in the passing scheme in week 17, at least in terms of %.  We’ll get to him much later.  To start I want to focus on Jalen Hurts.  Hurts has really become a fan of throwing the ball to Dallas Goedert.  This week Goedert was his most used pass catcher.  Last week Goedert was his second most used receiver.  Week in and week out Hurts’ favorite targets are Goedert and Smith. 

This week was a very different feel for the Baltimore Ravens.  On most Sundays Mark Andrews is far and away the most targeted guy on the Ravens.  This week, not so much.  Andrews was the third most targeted pass catcher for the Ravens in week 17.  Huntley looked more often for his wide receivers and unfortunately, it wasn’t overly successful as the Ravens lost another one and will need a miracle next week to squeak into the playoffs.

Running Back Touches

Rashaad Penny is on a heater folks.  Over the last 4 weeks Penny has games of 137 rushing yards, 135, and 170!  Going into week 17, Penny hadn’t had more than 17 carries.  This week he ended up with 25 carries.  The Seahawks had a dominant performance yesterday vs. the Lions and Penny was a huge part of it.  He’ll look to close out a disappointing Seahawks season next week vs. a tough Cardinals team.

Jonathan Taylor has more games over 100 yards rushing this year than he has less than it.  He’s put together just an amazing season.  On 20 carries this weekend, he was able to gain over 100 yards rushing for the fourth consecutive week and seventh out of his last 8 games. 

After disappointing his fans last weekend, he was able to find the end zone once again in week 17.  That makes it 17 rushing touchdowns on the year.  He’ll look to add to his already impressive sophomore season next weekend vs. the Jaguars. 

If you’re confused with how the Titans use their backs, you’re not alone.  After getting 22 carries in week 15, Foreman dropped to just 9 carries in week 16.  In week 17 he had a season high 26.  For the third time in the last 5 weeks, Foreman broke the 100 yard mark and had a season high 132 rushing yards.  Up next week is a matchup vs. the Texans and your guess is as good as mine as to who will get the bulk of the carries.

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

We need to talk about he game that Mike Glennon of the New York Giants had.  Thanks to a handful of sacks, Glennon had an NFL record low -10 yards passing.  That’s not a mark on your screen.  It’s really a negative sign next to the yardage.  Yesterday’s performance by Glennon will go down as one of the worst individual performances of all time.  There’s a reason the Giants ran the ball 80% of the time yesterday…

If your fantasy team was relying on Dalvin Cook to guide you to your season long fantasy championship yesterday, sorry.  With the Vikings not being able to get anything going on the ground, they passed the ball 80% of the time.  That didn’t work much either as Sean Mannion couldn’t get much going.  The Vikings will hope to get Kirk Cousins back for their week 18 matchup against the Bears.

Inside Look Wrap Up

While Joe Burrow didn’t throw for over 500 yards again this week, he did come close.  Those in their championship games that had Burrow this weekend should be hopefully feel good about their chances to raise their trophies.  This was another fun week of football, as long as your name was not Antonio Brown (I truly hope he gets the help he needs).  In week 17 we saw just 5 guys get over 100 yards receiving, compared to 11 last week.  We saw a lot more success on the ground though this weekend as 7 guys had over 100 yards rushing.  We’re almost at the finish line folks!

When setting lineups each week, make sure to our optimizer here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Daily Fantasy Sports

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight NFL Plays 01/02

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Claim Offer – Promo Code – WINDAILY

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on Monkey Knife Fight, the Touchdown Dance.  This Sunday MKF is running a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Touchdown Dance contest and all 3 of your players score a touchdown you get a share of the jackpot.  Today’s jackpot is $5,000! 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some touchdowns!

Touchdown Dance

Ronald Jones vs. New York Jets

Ronald Jones stands as good of a chance of scoring a touchdown today as anyone on the early slate.  No team in the NFL has given up more rushing touchdowns this season than the Jets as they’ve given up 22.  The next closest team is Houston with 18.  Even if we dive into a smaller subset, the Jets have given up 5 over their 4 last games.  Running backs have their way with the Jets and Ronald Jones will also have his way with the Jets. 

Jones filled in admirably last week for Fournette with 65 rushes and 1 touchdown against a slightly tougher opponent in the Panthers.  With Fournette on IR, Jones will get the bulk of the carries again today and should find the end zone in back-to-back weeks, helping us get our first touchdown in the Monkey Knife Fight Touchdown Dance contest.  Confidence Level – High

Jonathan Taylor vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Jonathan Taylor had somewhat of a disappointing week in week 16.  Although he rushed for over 100 yards for the third straight week, he failed to find the end zone for the first time since week 3.  In week 17 he gets a great shot of bouncing back against a Raiders team that has been below average against running backs all year. 

On the year they’ve given up 14 rushing touchdowns to running backs and 5 over the last 4 weeks.  They’ve gotten progressively worse over the course of the year.  Only once over the past 6 weeks have they gone a game without giving up a rushing touchdown to a running back.  Jonathan Taylor should have no issue finding the end zone in this one.  Confidence Level – High

Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Buffalo Bills

A once stout defense against the run, the Bills have really been struggling to try to contain running backs.  They started out the year not giving up a single rushing touchdown to a running back until week 6 against the Titans.  Since then it’s been all downhill.  Over the last 6 weeks, they’ve given up a total of 9.   In that stretch, they have games where they gave up 4 and 3 touchdowns.  I’m going to attack them today with a running back that I’ve gone to in the past, Cordarrelle Patterson. 

The ninth year back has really had a breakout season.  He’s set career highs in both rushing touchdowns and rushing yards.  He’s had rushing touchdowns in 3 of his last 5 games.  Patterson is a risk because he doesn’t get a whole lot of volume, but where he does get volume is in the red zone and that’s extremely important here.  Over the last 3 weeks, he’s had 13 red zone rushes.  If the Falcons get in the red zone today, they’ll hand it off to Patterson. Confidence Level – Medium

Cooper Kupp vs. Buffalo Bills

I normally keep it to running backs in the Monkey Knife Fight Touchdown Dance because their volume is easier to predict at times.  That said, Cooper Kupp is in an absolute smash spot today.  The Ravens’ secondary has been decimated by injuries all season and the results have shown it.  Over the last 4 weeks, the Ravens have given up a league-high 8 touchdowns to wide receivers.  That’s tops in the NFL over that stretch.  During that stretch of 4 games, they’ve given up multiple touchdowns to receivers 3 times. 

Kupp just stands out so much here.  Even last week in what was considered a subpar week for Stafford and Kupp, he still had over 100 receiving yards.  Last week was the first time since week 12 he failed to find the endzone.  I just don’t see a scenario where he goes a second straight week without a touchdown.  Confidence Level – High

Monkey Knife Fight Touchdown Dance Wrap Up

Other guys I also like this week are Davante Adams vs. Minnesota and David Montgomery vs. New York

Make sure you ar using our optimizer when setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to share the $5k with you!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! ! 

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NFL

NFL DFS: Week 17 on OwnersBox – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 17 edition of Picks and Plays for OwnersBox. Here I’ll be highlighting some of my favorite plays for their SuperFlex Salary Cap game, a revolutionary new way to play fantasy football that brings a new strategic alternative to the traditional season-long formats and daily fantasy games.

Not yet a member of Ownersbox? Click the button below to join using promo code WINDAILY to get a $25 bonus after your first deposit as well as a free entry into their $15k weekly NFL tournament.

Click Here to join – Promo Code – WINDAILY

As we get closer to the end of the year, some of the things we’ll want to keep an eye on our narratives.  Which teams are still in the hunt?  Are there players close to hitting their bonuses?  Which players are potentially playing their last game for their respective teams?

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some players that will take us to the top.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson $6.6k vs. Detroit Lions – To say this season has been a disappointment for Russell Wilson would be quite the understatement.  He’s missed time due to injury and he’s on pace to have one of his worst statistical seasons.  His name has started to pop up in numerous trade rumors and there is a very real chance that Sunday afternoon’s game against the Lions is the final time he’ll play in Seattle as a Seahawk. 

He could not have asked for a better matchup for his potential swan song.  The Lions have really struggled against the pass this season.  They’ve given up more than 300 yards to QB’s 5 times and haven’t had a week with no receiving touchdowns since week against the Eagles.  In what is potentially his last home game as a Seahawk, Wilson is one of my favorite QB’s in week 17.  Look for him to throw early and often in this one.

Matt Stafford $7.6k vs. Baltimore Ravens – If you rostered Stafford last weekend you walked away with a dirty taste in your mouth.  Going into the week he was the stone-cold chalk against the Vikings.  My hope here is that it lowers his ownership as he gets a tasty matchup this week.  Ravens just got torched for over 500 yards passing last week against Joe Burrow and the Bengals.  Look, I’m not going to say that Stafford is going to get anywhere near 500 yards passing. 

What I do know is that he’s going to take full advantage of a secondary that’s been absolutely decimated by injuries throughout the 2021 season.  No team in the NFL has given up more passing yards than the Ravens.  It’s been a struggle for them week in and week out.  They’ve given up greater than 400 yards 4 times.  That’s just downright bad.  I fully expect Stafford to rebound from his poor performance last week and be one of the top-performing QB’s in week 17.

Running Backs

David Montgomery $6.8k vs. New York Giants – Growing up as a Giants fan it pains me to see what’s happened to this franchise.  It doesn’t pain me enough to gloss over a juicy matchup.  Only a handful of teams have given up more rushing yards this season than the Giants.  On Sunday, I want to exploit that and I’m going to do just that with David Montgomery.  Over the last 7 weeks, the Giants have given up greater than 100 rushing yards 5 times to running backs. 

In 3 straight weeks, they’ve given up more than 120.  They’ve also given up at least 4 receptions to running backs in each of the last 3 weeks.  This all sets up beautifully for Montgomery as he thrives in situations where he can catch the ball.  Montgomery has one of the best matchups of any running back this weekend and I’ll be sure to lock him into my lineups.

Ronald Jones $6k vs. New York Jets – I talked about the solid matchup that Montgomery had, Ronald Jones gets just as good if not better matchup.  No team has given up more rushing touchdowns this season than the Jets as they’ve given up 22.  The next closest team is Houston with 18.  Running backs have their way with the Jets and Ronald Jones will also have his way with the Jets. 

Jones filled in admirably last week for Fournette with 65 rushing yards and 1 touchdown against a slightly tougher opponent in the Panthers.  With Fournette on the IR, Jones will get the bulk of the carries again and stands as good of a chance to get a touchdown as anyone else in week 17.

Rex Burkhead $5.3k vs. San Francisco 49ers – Rex Burkhead is having a career year.  He’s set career highs in rushing yards and attempts, and he’s just 2 touchdowns shy of tying his career-high of 5.  Last week he had arguably the finest game of his career filling in for David Johnson as he rushed for 149 yards on 20 carries. 

While I doubt he comes close to that production this week against a much tougher 49ers defense, I do expect him to continue to contribute and he’s very affordable.  Should David Johnson miss week 17, I like Burkhead’s chances of reaching value this week and helping us afford some of the more expensive players.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp $8.1k/Odell Beckham $5.9k/Van Jefferson $5.1k vs. Baltimore Ravens – If using Stafford this weekend, I’ll want to make sure to pair him with one of his wide receivers.  I don’t need to sell you on Cooper Kupp.  He’s having an MVP and historic type of season.  Kupp is an excellent play anytime he steps on the field.  That said, he’s extremely expensive and you’ll have to sacrifice in other spots to play him. 

An affordable way to stack your lineup with Stafford this weekend is with either Odell Beckham or Van Jefferson.  Over the last 4 weeks, Beckham has 23 targets while Jefferson has 19.  There’s not much difference in production between the 2 and if I had to pick I’d go with Jefferson to get the $800 savings.  All three of these guys have the potential to have monster games this weekend.  Lock and Load with the guy you can afford.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4.9k vs. Minnesota Vikings – MVS is a very boom or bust play.  He can burn your lineup as easily as he can get you to the top of the leaderboards. With him returning this weekend after a bout with COVID, I like his chances of returning value at this price point.  Against this same team in week 11 MVS was targeted a season-high 10 times and went for 123 yards, also a season-high.  The Vikings are an awful team against the pass, regardless of what happened last weekend vs. the Rams.  I love MVS this weekend and he’ll be one of my locks. 

Braxton Berrios $4.5k vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – We need a cheap flyer to afford our expensive pieces.  Braxton Berrios hasn’t done a whole lot this year, well at least when they’ve been fully healthy.  Should Crowder miss week 17 I really like Berrios.  When Crowder has missed action this season, Berrios has played a more significant role in the offense. 

In weeks 1 and 2 he saw a combined 18 targets.  This past weekend he saw 6 and was able to catch 5 of them.  His 25 routes run were the most he’s had since week 3.  It also helps that he returns kicks as there’s always a chance of a return touchdown like he had last weekend.  Not a safe play by any means, but if you’re a GPP player like me, you need to take some risks. 

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews $6.9k vs. Los Angeles Rams – Mark Andrews has proved over the last few weeks that the QB throwing to him just doesn’t matter.  He’s going to find open spaces and he’s going to catch whatever is thrown at him.  The Ravens are currently on the bubble of the playoffs and essentially need to win out the rest of the way.  If they have any chance of doing that they’ll need Andrews to continue his torrid stretch.  The good news for Andrews and the Ravens is that they should get back either Jackson or Huntley this weekend.  

Gerald Everett $4.9k vs. Detroit Lions – While the big names of the receiving corps on the Seahawks are Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, the route I’m taking with Wilson this weekend is to pair him with Gerald Everett.  The Lions have been very susceptible against tight ends this season.  Only three teams have given up more receiving yards to tight ends this season than the Lions. 

Everett being under $5k is very affordable and he stands a great chance to attain value.  If we look at the last 4 weeks, Everett has been targeted 17 times and has caught 14 of them.  His 14 catches are just a shade under Lockett and Metcalf and comes at a fraction of the cost with a better matchup.  This is one of my favorite targets in week 17.  

SuperFlex 

One of the things I love to do on Mondays is go back and studying how the winning lineups have been structured.  Week in and week out on OwnersBox the winning the lineup has had a QB in their SuperFlex spot.  Last week was Joe Burrow, week 15 was Davis Mills, and week 14 was Aaron Rodgers. 

This week will be Trey Lance ($5.3k vs. Houston Texans).  With Jimmy Garoppolo all but ruled out this week with a bum hand the 49ers will turn the ball over their 2021 first-round pick. Lance started 2 games earlier this season and did very well.  He’s a dual-threat QB as he loves to run when given the chance.  Lance should excel this weekend in a great matchup.  

Good luck and hope to see you in the green this week!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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