Welcome to the Week 16 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data-driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
Outside of the MNF game, we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.
Let’s dig into the data!
Wide Receiver Targets
Before we dig into individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and fantasy opportunities more often than create production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
This weekend saw the return of two important receivers. The first was A.J. Brown. After missing weeks 12-15 with a chest injury Brown returned and his presence was felt immediately. Brown led everyone this weekend with 16 targets. He was able to catch 11 of his 16 targets for 145 yards and 1 touchdown. The 145 yards was the third time that Brown has reached the 100 yard mark this season.
Something to keep an eye on over the last 2 weeks will be Brown’s pursuit of 1,000 yards. Brown was able to accomplish this in each of his first 2 seasons. Now, he’s just 240 yards shy of that mark, even though he’s missed multiple weeks. Over the final 2 weeks, he needs to average just 120 yards to accomplish that feat for a third straight year. Do they funnel as many passes to him as possible? I sure hope so.
The other receiver making his return was Antonio Brown. With a wide receiving corps decimated by injuries, the return of Brown could not have come at a better time. With Evans and Godwin on the shelf, Brown stole the show. Tom Brady targeted him 15 times and he was able to catch 10 of them for 101 yards. The only thing missing from Brown’s stat-line in week 16 was a touchdown pass. Should Evans make a return next week the production from Brown may be short-lived. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Buc’s roster throughout the week.
Have yourself a day Tee Higgins. Tee Higgins had by far his best game of the season. While it seemed like everyone on the Bengals had a solid day, it was Higgins that nearly broke 200 receiving yards. On his 13 targets, his final stat-line was 12 catches, 194 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. Week 16 was very kind to the Bengals, specifically Higgins. Up next week is a much tougher task with a hot Chiefs team.
Running Back Targets
With James Conner unable to finish the game due to injury, Chase Edmonds became more two-dimensional than he normally is. Edmonds was targeted a season-high 9 teams and was able to catch 8 of them. He also had a season-high 71 receiving yards. Should Conner miss again next week and Hopkins already out, there will be plenty of targets to go around.
The Los Angeles Chargers were without their star running back this weekend, Austin Ekeler. Justin Jackson tried his hardest to make sure that his team remained successful. In what was a common trend among players having season-high performances, Jackson was targeted a season high 9 times. Coming into the week he had only been targeted 5 times over the prior 5 weeks. Jackson caught 8 of the 9 targets for 98 yards. If Ekeler should miss next week the Chargers will be in fine hands once again.
Tight End Targets
There’s no way around it, the loss of DeAndre Hopkins has really hurt the Arizona Cardinals. That said, there are players that are really trying their hardest to step up and make up for the lack of production. Zach Ertz is one of those guys. For the second consecutive week, Ertz saw double-digit targets. Ideally, he would have done just a bit more with those targets though. While he caught 8 of the targets, he was only able to gain 54 receiving yards. If the Cardinals are going to get back on track they’re going to need more out of Ertz and others.
It does not matter who is throwing the ball to Mark Andrews. Andrews just continues to pile up stats as he had his third straight game with at least 100 receiving yards. His final line in week 16 was 10 targets, 8 catches, 125 yards, and 1 touchdown. The Ravens season is in a freefall, but it has nothing to do with Mark Andrews. Andrews will look to help his team right the ship next week against a very tough Rams team.
Kyle Pitts is quietly having a really solid season. At this point, he’s just 51 yards shy of breaking 1,000 yards receiving. In week 16 Pitts broke the hundred-yard mark for the third time in 2021. Since their bye in week 6, Pitts has had no fewer than 5 targets and no more than 8. His target share has been as consistent as there is. He’ll look to continue his solid season next week against the Bills.
Quarterback Target Share
With a pair of top Packers receivers missing this week’s game, we saw Rodgers lean pretty heavily on his running backs and tight ends in the passing game. While Adams saw 13 targets, we also saw Rodgers throw 15 passes to his non-wide receivers. Should MVS be back next week we are sure to see a swing back to more targets to his wide receivers
I noted it above, but we’re really seeing a different game plan recently out of the Cardinals. Without their star wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, they’re really having to spread the ball out more these days. Murray threw the ball 39 times in week 16. Of those 39, 23 went to either his backs or tight ends. Two of his top targeted guys were Zach Ertz and Chase Edmonds.
Running Back Touches
If you ask people on Twitter, Jonathan Taylor played poorly this week. The only thing that Taylor was missing in week 16 was a touchdown. Taylor broke the 100 yard mark for the third straight week and made it 100 yards or more for the sixth time in the last 7 weeks. He continues to be the workhorse of this offense and is putting up numbers worthy of being in the MVP conversation.
With a banged-up Darrell Henderson ruled out in week 16, Sony Michel was asked to pick up the load. He delivered as he rushed 27 times this weekend for 131 yards and one touchdown. It was the second time in the last 4 weeks that Michel produced over 100 yards. Over the last 4 weeks, he’s now rushed for over 400 yards. Should Henderson miss week 17 against the Ravens, the Rams will be in fine hands with Michel in the backfield.
The Texans were without 2 of their main offensive guys in week 16 with both David Johnson and Brandon Cooks out. Rex Burkhead said not to worry as he had arguably one of the best games of his career. His 22 carries on Sunday were by far the most he’s had all year, as were the 149 yards rushing he had. The 2021 season has been kind to Burkhead as he’s rushed for a career-high of 356 yards.
Playbook
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
Usually, when I get to this section we see the Buccaneers all the way on the right of the chart as they’ve thrown the ball a ton this season. This week we saw a little bit of a different plan. Where they normally run the ball about 30% of the time, they ran it more than 50% of the time in week 16. With the top two receivers out for them this weekend it made sense to change things up a bit. It worked as they had a very convincing win over the Panthers.
Conversely, with the Panthers down almost from the start, they took to the air often. They threw the ball this weekend more than 70% of the time, with very little success. While they threw the ball 43 times, they were only able to garner 251 yards through the air. 2021 has been a struggle for the Panthers at the quarterback position and week 16 was no different.
Inside Look Wrap Up
We saw some dominant performances this weekend. Joe Burrow threw for over 525 yards against a decimated Ravens secondary. That’s over 900 passing yards against the Ravens this year. It’s like Chipper Jones-esque against the Mets. All in all, we saw 11 different guys get over 100 yards receiving in week 16. On the ground wasn’t much different as 8 guys had over 100 yards rushing. This was a fantasy player’s dream this weekend with all the production.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
