It felt like only yesterday that we kicked off the NFL season and already it’s Week 13. And what a week we are in store for in DFS, with five of the twelve games having totals of 47 to 52.5. As you will read in this article, there will be so many ways to victory that you may be forced to create more lineups than you normally would. Also, make sure you check out my take on the Cleveland/Houston matchup, don’t be so quick to run and use Deshaun Watson in his first game back in 700 days. Not to throw any shade on him, but by all means, go with your gut if you are feeling that move. This week just has a smorgasbord of pivots and angles to attack in DFS, so remember to refer back to our Discord and Projection Models when building your lineups. Let’s gooo!
Tennessee will continue to ride the coattails of Derrick Henry and not make it a secret. But will he come up short again like last week? The Eagles have made some improvements in free agency (Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph) but continue to get gashed by opposing running backs (Aaron Jones and A J Dillon combined for over 35 DK PTS). Henry is always a reliable DFS running back but for this week let’s keep him out of our cash games and roll him in GPPs.
With a record of 10-1, the Eagles appear destined for glory this season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a lock week in and week out, but in this matchup, we may see receiver A J Brown in a get-right revenge game against his former team. Facing a skank secondary that is 28th in DVOA to receivers, Brown is destined for the end zone against a Titans’ organization that refused to pay him and get traded away for a first-round pick in 2022.
We may have seen the last of Zach Wilson this year after Mike White’s performance. I mentioned him in my breakdown last week that he would crush his salary (27.8 DK FPTS) and yet again he lines up in another great spot against Minnesota (28th in DVOA to QBs) in a dome. White is not the only Jet you may want to take this weekend. The running backs here are loaded with value (James Robinson, Ty Johnson, and Zonovan Knight) but are way too risky to decide on, so use any in a GPP. A much safer play would be pairing White with a share or two of his receivers. Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and a revenge game for tight end Tyler Conklin returning back to Minnesota make a sneaky stack pivoting off the late games on the slate.
Believe it or not, the Jets have been pretty tough on defense as of late. They’ve only allowed three touchdown passes in their last 10 games, so Cousins may not be a QB in play this week. Justin Jefferson is matchup-proof, so feel free to keep him in cash games If you can afford him. The rest of the Vikes are priced way too high for me to take a shot on against this Jets’ defense, even Dalvin Cook may not pay off his hefty pricetag on a New York front that has not given up a rushing TD since Week 7.
If you’re looking for a cheap play at running back, look no further. The rookie Brian Robinson may be in line for an increased workload at a discount If Antonio Gibson sits this one out. The New York Giants have allowed 150 yards with five total touchdowns to opposing running backs in their last two games. Robinson is a lock for cash if this situation plays out for Sunday.
The window is beginning to close for the Giants to make the playoffs, so it’s now or never. But with news breaking about Saquan Barkley possibly getting a lighter workload, New York will need to rely more on the passing game in order to win at home. The Commanders have cleaned it up a bit on defense, only allowing two passing touchdowns in their last three games. Regardless, the Giants’ will need to pass to win, and their skeleton crew of receivers is way too cheap. Darius Slayton and Richie James are set to have a big day as long as they can get healthy.
Free Courtland Sutton! He’s put up double-digit fantasy points at receiver in his last three games and the only game in town for DFS in Denver. The Ravens are a force at stopping the run, so Lat Murray will be a no go for me this week, not that he has been a stud averaging three yards per carry. Denver has been the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year as Russell Wilson and the coaching staff have set the franchise back a decade. It’s Sutton for GPP, no one is safe for cash in Bronco Country.
Well, Lamar has not panned out from what we expected for this season either. If it wasn’t for his rushing upside, he’d be right up there cooking with Russ. But Gus Edwards seems to be back to 100% and against the tough Denver defense I’d rather pay down for Gus to fall in the endzone than Jackson’s low pass volume and high price tag. Denver has also been a cheat code for opposing defenses, pay up if you can for the Ravens’ DST in this low total contest.
Here it is, the game we’ve all been waiting for. Will Watson go off on his former team or will he show signs of rust, time will tell. The one player who is money in the bank is Nick Chubb, playing behind one of the best O-lines in football. Add that nugget up with one of the worst run defenses in the league and you have the formula to pay up here at running back. The only thing that bothers me is if Watson will hog the spotlight in this game and look to throw or run one into the endzone himself at the goal line. One thing for sure is Texan quarterback Kyle Allen was a turnover machine last week with two picks and two fumbles leading to scores for Miami. If you have confidence in the Browns D, pay up for them.
Some big late news broke on Friday that Texan receiver Brandin Cooks will not play on Sunday, elevating Nico Collins to the number one passer option for Houston and a no-brainer on DraftKings ($4,200). However, don’t forget about the rookie Dameon Pierce. He’s underwhelmed for the last two games, but he has the sixth-highest snap-share among running backs facing the Browns’ 30th-ranked run defense. I’m fine with using both in cash games.
T Law is coming off a career-best performance last week posting 321 passing yards with three touchdowns against Baltimore. It may be a double-down week to take Lawrence for a second week straight as he’ll be indoors to face the Lions. In what may look to be a track meet in Detroit, Christian Kirk may benefit more in the receiving department if he lines up in the slot opposite Joe Harris, who’s spilled out 15 receptions for 196 yards in his last two games.
At home, the Lions are at their best and will look the case against a soft Jaguar defense that has allowed 54 points in their last two games. We’ll see more of the usual from Goff to Amon Ra, with a sprinkle of Jamaal Williams at the goal line. Fellow receivers other than ASRB are priced way down to $4K and lower, so a nice GPP stack might be found in this game using D J Chark and Kalif Raymond
Green Bay is on the outside looking into the playoffs for the season, so even in a great matchup for Aaron Rodgers, I would tread lightly. He’s pretty banged up with a thumb and now a rib injury, any shot taken during the game may force him to the sideline. So for me, it’s an Aaron Jones kind of day, especially at his DraftKings salary ($6,900). Even if Rodgers does get pulled, wideouts Christian Watson and Allen Lazard should still feast on the Bears’ bush league of defense if Jordan Love were to take over. Other than Jones, keep everybody else in tournaments.
Chicago has given their superstar athlete at quarterback the green light for Sunday, but how effective will he be? Justin Fields injured his non-throwing shoulder in Week 11, but it’s not his passing that he is known for. one bad hit after a scramble may also take him out of the game. His ceiling is through a roof but keep him in your tournament this weekend, who may see very low ownership on this slate.
The first quarterback taken in last year’s draft may have his best game this season on the road in Atlanta. Kenny Pickett can easily smash his salary four times its value playing indoors, using a little of his legs, and letting loose on the Falcon secondary that has been exploited all season. Pairing Pickett with Pickens and Friermuth makes a ton of sense here, but Diontae Johnson may be riskier because of his inability to build any chemistry with the rookie QB. The questionable tags have been all over the Steeler running backs, best to keep an eye on reports for tonight through tomorrow morning for a Najee Harris/Jalen Warren possible lone backfield.
I just can’t put anybody in Atlanta in my lineups this week because of this Pittsburgh defense led by TJ Watt. Now that Kyle Pitts landed on IR, opposing defenses will continue to gravitate toward the rookie Drake London. I mean if I were to throw a dart here, it would be at Zaccheaus. Olamide ate off London’s plate last week while catching five of eight passes for 91 yards.
Well, we all should know Miami’s blueprint by now in Week 13, if you’re just tuning in now it’s a three-headed monster with Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle. Besides Tyreek Hill, many Dolphins for this week may not be usable in DFS facing a tough San Fran defense on the road. So will it be a Jeff Wilson/Raheem Mostert revenge game? I wouldn’t bet on that either against the Niners’ front line. Ever hear of a guy by the name of Trent Sherfield? He’s basically on the field all the time alongside Tyreek and Waddle with over a 60% snap rate and could be worth a punt based on his price tag on DraftKings ($3,300). Thanks to Stix and the model for this gem, he may not be as sexy as the last Christian Watson call, but definitely makes sense against a Niner defense that will focus mainly on Waddle and Hill.
The Dolphins have also been decent at stopping the run (10th in DVOA) which could force Garoppolo to throw it more than he likes to. Miami’s cornerbacks and safeties have allowed over 60 receptions with five touchdowns over their last three games. Deebo may not be able to go Sunday so pay attention to injury reports, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will be a lock if he is ruled out.
Seattle may get the same scenario game as Kansas City when they played LA…a wet noodle of an offense. Geno Smith and the Seahawks may not have any type of motivation to light up the scoreboard this weekend. We should see a lot of Kenneth Walker chewing up the clock and that Seattle defense causing some turnovers and three-and-outs.
The defending champs have waived the white flag to the NFL, pulling every big-name player and placing them on IR, most recently QB Matt Stafford. The Rams appear to want to get an idea of who else they have on their roster by giving them some playing time. Rookie running back Kyren Williams could be busy for the end of the regular season, and Seattle’s 153 rushing yards allowed per game has breakout written all over this game. Kyren is a sleeper and a smooth play as your RB2 in your GPP.
Let’s get ready to rumble, the Main Event will be at 4:25 EST in Ohio, when Kansas City looks to even the score from last year’s loss to the Bengals. Mahomes and Kelce all day, in 11 games they’ve connected on 73 receptions with 12 touchdowns, and Mahomes has thrown for 29…eh not bad. A smart but chalky stack this weekend, we need to get a little different here. Pacheco had a solid game against LA last week, finding the endzone for a cool 15 DK points, and rushing for 70 yards. Currently, he leads the backfield in snap percentage (51%), which may lead to another trip to the endzone in Cinci.
The Chiefs are 24th in DVOA to quarterbacks, so they will let you throw on them. Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and maybe Ja’Marr Chase ( if he can suit up) would be in a pass-funnel offense at home, locking them in our lineups with the highest game total of the slate. Even running backs Joe Mixon (if he clears protocols) and Samaje Perine can feast off this zone defense which allows plenty of the dink-and-dunk.
Justin Herbert crushed Arizona last week, and he’ll do it again to Vegas. The Raiders are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defending receivers and sending pressure to the quarterback. No Mike Williams again maybe? No problem, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and the almighty running back Austin Ekeler are enough firepower to take out a small army. All playable in DFS this weekend, I especially like Herbert for cash.
As bad as Vegas’ defense is, we love them for fantasy, forcing the offense to play from behind. Derek Carr may have to throw it another 36 times this week in order to stay in the game. Davante Adams as their main pass catcher all season (71 REC/10 TD), will also be busy. But if running back Josh Jacobs has his way again in this game (229 RSH/74 REC/2 TDs), Herbert may not have as much time on the field. LA’s defense against the run is a dismal 29th in DVOA, so if Jacobs can convince the doctors he can play, he’s a lock once again.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 13. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.
Well, I hope everybody enjoyed their holiday, welcome back to the grind! Thanksgiving has come and gone with a mini three-game slate that entertained us all over dinner amongst family and friends. Now that we’ve digested all that grub, it’s time to break down this Week 12 of NFL action. There are so many paths to cash this slate and I’m happy to bring them to you. As always, stay up to speed on our community Discord and use our projection model to fall back on players that you are unsure of. Now without further delay let’s get right into this 11-game Main Slate, Week 12 breakdown, it’s on!
Houston will be one of a few teams this week featuring a new quarterback in Week 12, starting Kyle Allen over Davis Mills. Allen is nothing spectacular, in 21 career starts in Carolina and Washington he’s thrown for 24 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, running in a few scores himself on the ground. The price is right for a GPP but by all means keep him out of cash games, even with his Miami 22nd DVOA to QB matchup. The only safe piece in Houston is Dameon Pierce, but I also like the Nico Collins price tag ($4,100 on DraftKings). The Texan double-digit spread sends the message that they will be playing from behind for most of the game, forcing Nico into lineups this weekend.
The big three in Miami of Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle is a shoo-in this week to ball out against the 1-8-1 Texans, but will they be sitting out in the second half because of them being up by three touchdowns? Tua is probably the safest of the three since we know he will be in command of the scoring. There will be some chalk in this game though since news broke recently of running back Raheem Mostert being listed as doubtful to play. Fellow back Jeff Wilson Jr. will inherit the lion’s share of carries against the worst-ranked run defense in the league.
It looks like Gus Edwards will finally return to the field after logging two full practices this week, giving Baltimore much-needed depth at running back. He’s a sneaky, under-the-radar play at RB who may see all the goal-line work in Jacksonville. Lamar Jackson and tight end Mark Andrews returning off a bye week are also in play, but much safer for cash games.
The revamped Raven defense with the addition of Roquan Smith held Carolina to only three points in Week 10, so I’m weary of starting too many players in Jacksonville. But the AETY Model does like tight end Evan Engram, so consider him as a decent-size punt (3.3X value) for only $3,200 on DraftKings.
The Bears enter the tri-state area with a questionable tag for quarterback Justin Fields, who suffered a shoulder injury last week. If he sits out, It will be Trevor Siemian season facing a tough Jets defense that already has 32 sacks on the year… I’ll pass on both this week. Another heavy dose of David Montgomery may be in store for Chicago’s game plan, but I would only recommend him in tournaments this week because of the matchup.
Zach Wilson is in timeout for Week 12 after an embarrassing loss to New England, handing Mike White the keys to the Jets’ offense. In four games, and three starts last season, White threw for 953 yards, five touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Four of those picks were against a top-ranked Buffalo defense in 2021, which led him back to the bench and I don’t put that against him. White will sling it and against this Bears’ beatable secondary he could easily pay off his very low salary ($4,900 on DraftKings). Keep him in tournaments, but the Jets’ D looks great against Siemian (if he starts) on the road.
30% of the Atlanta target share went up for grabs when tight end Kyle Pitts landed on IR this week, putting Drake London in absolute control of the Falcon receiving core. The rookie first-round pick is in a smash spot as not only the featured receiver in Atlanta but a matchup with Kendall Fuller/Ben St.-Juste, who has been toasted all season. Quarterback Marcus Mariota, who may also be a sleeper at his position, will be looking for jersey number 5 (London) all afternoon.
The same scenario for the Commanders can be said for Atlanta, as they face a bottom three DVOA pass defense in the league. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has only had eyes for wideout Terry McLaurin in his return as a starter, targeting him 43 times in just five games. T-MC continues to be underpriced on DraftKings ($5,800) and should be considered a lock at receiver, but keep his QB Heinicke in tournaments.
*** Curtis Samuel and Johan Dotson can also get some love too in this contest
Cincinnati will be without stud running back Joe Mixon due to concussion protocols, so is it Samaje Perine season again? Not so fast. He did score three touchdowns last week, but he’ll be splitting carries with Chris Evans against the number two rushing defense…buyer beware. It will be a Joe Burrow game for sure, facing a secondary ranked 30th in the NFL. If he gets his boy Ja’Marr Chase back, the field will be spread out, even more, making another Bengals’ stack enticing again this week. Higgins, Boyd, and tight end Hurst are all viable plays here too.
The Titans and Derrick Henry will be out for revenge after getting the boot from the Bengals in the 2021 AFC Wild Card game. Tennessee will as usual utilize their franchise battering ram at running back to keep Burrow off the field and chew time off the clock. If in fact, Tannehill does decide to air it out, rookie Treylon Burks has seen 14 targets in his last two games, cashing in for 10 of them. For only $4,200 on DraftKings, he makes a nice discount on a run-back play in a GPP stack of this game.
The Broncos finally waived running back Melvin Gordon leaving Latavius Murray as the only game in town at the position. He’s not sexy but will get a ton of volume and all the goal line work, but making him touchdown reliant averaging only three yards per carry this year. With all the chalk at running back this weekend, Murray may float under the radar against a Panther 26th DVOA to opposing running backs. Watch the weather in Carolina too, it could get uglier not just because Sam Darnold is starting at quarterback, but they may see some rain. Take that Bronco defense if you can.
The Panthers are one piece away from being a solid team in the league, and without a quarterback, you can see how bad it has been. Sam Darnold will be getting the call to start, and Carolina is drawing at straws, desperately seeking an answer to this losing season. Possible rain, Surtain, and Darnold are telling us to stay clear this weekend with any Panthers.
Another stadium that may be affected by wind and rain in Cleveland could put a damper on a Bucs offense that may be looking to throw a lot this weekend. Starting running back Leonard Fournette is listed as doubtful, giving a major opportunity to rookie Rachaad White to lead the backfield against the second-worst rushing defense. But when you’re playing with Brady, he’ll get you the ball rain, sleet, or shine. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are always safe when healthy for DFS.
Jacoby Brissett hammered the Bills’ defense for 29 fantasy points last week, maybe we should ride the hot hand against the Bucs? Sure why not? He’s at home, his receivers are healthy, and he has one of the best running backs in football Nick Chubb. Cleveland’s defense has been a train wreck recently, Brissett will again be playing from behind and forcing his arm to air it out in what could be his last game this year. (Watson returns in Week 13). Keep Cleveland in your tournaments.
Vegas having one of the worst secondaries in the league forces Derek Carr and Davonte Adams to play catch all afternoon. Now with running back Josh Jacobs popping up on the injury report with a calf, Davonte may have even more of a role carved out for him in the offense. Seattle’s been no stranger to giving up big plays either, ranking 21st in DVOA to quarterbacks. Carr fed Adams 13 targets, catching 7 for 141 yards and two touchdowns in Denver, expect more of the same in Seattle. Adams for cash games, and Carr for GPPs.
The Raiders’ young and inexperienced secondary has been the league’s punching bag all season. What an opponent to have come off a bye week for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. At a measly $6,000 on DraftKings, Smith can hit value by halftime with receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. And let’s not forget about the rookie phenom Kenneth Walker III, who may be finishing off plenty of drives into the endzone this weekend. The volume and game flow will favor Walker and the Seahawks if they end up with a sizeable lead in the second half.
This matchup for Justin Herbert has a breakout written all over it against Arizona. One game removed from a lingering hamstring, Herbert’s number one Keenan Allen will be running circles around Marco Wilson and the Cardinal secondary, which will be without their top corner Byron Murphy Jr. Fellow Chargers’ wideout Mike Williams is set to miss another game, enter Josh Palmer. The second-year receiver could also see a big afternoon, like last week’s 8-106-2 stat line. There’s always Austin Ekeler in play, we can’t overlook LA’s top running back when he’s healthy, he’s a lock in all cash games.
Arizona is beat up on defense as we just spoke on, but they are getting back quarterback Kyler Murray. This is great news for DeAndre Hopkins, who gets peppered on a weekly basis by Murray. But consider James Connor this week at running back away from the chalk. He owns the backfield against one of the worst run defenses (30th in DVOA) in the league, if the game does get into a shoot-out, Connor may be a sneaky player at running back. Then there’s also Trey McBride taking over for Zach Ertz at tight end. The rookie saw a near 80% snap share in his debut as a starter, so he’s well worth a thought as a punt this weekend at tight end.
New Orleans is in limbo as far as their injury report on the defensive side of the ball, as this could determine a lot of what kind of action may be on the field come Sunday afternoon. On offense, it’s always Chris Olave at receiver, who is a magnet for the football in a Saints’ uniform. At running back, Alvin Kamara is a hard fade against the second-best run defense of San Fransisco. It’s Olave or bust in New Orleans, who’s still fairly priced on DraftKings ($6,600). Although tight end Juwan Johnson is quietly making some noise as a red zone threat, with three touchdowns in his last three games, take a shot on him in a tournament.
Along with the news we are still waiting for in New Orleans, receiver Deebo Samuel also appeared on the injury report yesterday. So teammates Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will get a huge uptick in looks from Jimmy Garoppolo if he can’t suit up. Running back Christian McCaffrey is an auto start if you can pay up, as well as the top-five defense of the Niners. You’ll need a piece of San Fran in your lineup if Marshon Lattimore and Cam Jordan are in street clothes this Sunday.
When you thought it could not get any worse for the defending champs, out goes Matt Stafford with another concussion. Coach Sean McVay will roll the dice with third-stringer Bryce Perkins at quarterback, who may give the Rams a boost with the use of his legs under center. Young and inexperienced QBs tend to favor their safety valve at running back and tight end, so Bryce may lean on Kyren Williams and Tyler Higbee could be busy this weekend. Tournaments only guys, keep it safe.
Blood will be in the water at Arrowhead Stadium, as the Chiefs’ defense will put pressure on a rookie quarterback with one of the worst O-lines in the league. By now there’s no need to mention Mahomes and Kelce as they are always safe for cash, but given the game flow, they may be sitting out in the second half. My move would be to aim low for savings in the KC high-powered offense as a huge favorite. Isiah Pacheco and Skyy Moore could see some extra playing time if Kansas City is up big.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 12. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.
Week Ten is in the books, and what a slate that was! We struck DFS gold with Watson ($3,700 DraftKings) thanks to our AETY model, and there are plenty more where that came from here in Week 11! I saw plenty of winning lines in our Discord this weekend, let’s keep the NFL chat room that way. On to the 11-game main slate, in this article, we’re going to give you bits and pieces for your DraftKings or FanDuel DFS lineup builds, take this insight and use it to your advantage! Time to break it down…here we go!
Well, no Blizzard Bowl this weekend in Buffalo, as the game has been moved to Detroit in the dome. The Browns will continue to utilize one of the best O-lines in the NFL, and behind it will be Nick Chubb. He’s had a nose for the endzone, currently leading all NFL running backs with 11 touchdowns. Buffalo’s secondary has been stingy all season, look for Cleveland to focus on the ground game and play keep away from Josh Allen in this one.
Josh Allen and the Bills catch a huge break from Old Man Winter and get a trip to Detroit for an indoor battle with Cleveland. Start up your Buffalo players on this slate, this Browns’ defense has been giving up boatloads of yardage, mainly against the run. The 31st DVOA to opposing running backs is good news for Devin Singletary as well as the Bills’ premier rusher quarterback Josh Allen.
We’re not a fan of Jared Goff on the road, and facing a ferocious Giants’ pass rush hopefully, he can get rid of the ball quickly. New York should be run up the gut in order to move the football, who allows 133 yards per game on the season. We could see a bounce back in D’Andre Swift this week if he can get healthy, and Amon-Ra St. Brown being the only viable passing option he is a must-start for Detroit.
Probably the best matchup in line for the Giants’ top weapon at running back Saquon Barkley. He is single-handedly carrying the offense for the 7-2 G-Men, against the worst-ranked rushing defense, he will feast. New York also likes to get after the quarterback and force turnovers, maybe the road Jared Goff shows up at Met Life Stadium for some Giants DST fantasy points.
The undefeated streak is over, and Hurts will look to re-establish himself in the win column. It will be a tough task on the road, but he gets the job done in fantasy regardless of the opponent. Hurts has been the best pound-for-pound dual-threat quarterback all season racking up 21 total touchdowns and a 106 QB rating. Always a safe play in DFS. The Eagles will also be without stud tight end Dallas Goedert for some time due to a shoulder injury, but receivers A J Brown and Devonta Smith will pick up the slack. A sneaky tournament punt at tight end would be backup Jack Stoll, who saw 40-57% of snaps from Weeks 4-8 while Goedert was healthy. Stoll will be a high-risk, high reward if he cashes one inside the pay dirt.
Indy looked great last week going back to their bread and butter on offense. Veteran Matt Ryan and running back Jonathon Taylor will go for two in a row at home. Philadelphia has had a shutdown secondary up until we saw cornerback Avonte Maddox go down Monday night. Paris Campbell will see plenty of rookie Josiah Scott on Sunday, we should see Ryan hook up with his new buddy Paris for another double-digit fantasy day. The price is still way too cheap for Campbell on DraftKings ($4,300).
Can the Jets finally get over the hump and take out Belichick and the Pats? They’ve had two weeks coming off a bye to figure out a game plan. With a 6-3 record, New York will need to work with what’s got them to this point, run the ball and play great defense. Meanwhile quarterback Zach Wilson has made a connection with first-round pick Garret Wilson. In their last two games, the Wilsons have linked up for 14 receptions and 207 yards, making Garret a steal at ($4,900) on DraftKings.
The Pats’ quarterback situation may still be a puzzle this week, it all depends on who may have the hot hand, or who screws up. As it can always be a mystery with this offense, what has always been solid has been their defense. Jets’ quarterback Zach Wilson is no stranger to coughing up the football, and on the road, if he decides to play hero ball, Zach may make a few more mistakes.
The Panthers come into Baltimore with Baker Mayfield back under center. This spells potential disaster for fantasy across the board since Baker hasn’t started a game since Week 5. So don’t get cute this weekend by drafting any Carolina players facing this new and improved Baltimore defense. Let’s wait and see what happens, play it, safe guys.
Lamar Jackson off a bye with rested legs, yup sign me up against this 26th DVOA Carolina rushing defense. And with a less than 100% Mark Andrews, the Ravens may choose to lean even more on the run, so Gus Edwards (if he plays) and Kenyon Drake are also roster-able this weekend. Don’t forget who is quarterbacking for Carolina too, so we may see Roquan Smith get more comfortable with his new team by rattling the cage of Baker Mayfield. Ravens DST is in play if you can pay up.
Quarterback Justin Fields has been white hot, scrambling for 365 yards and rushing for three touchdowns in his last two games. He’s a lock again facing Atlanta in another dome game that could lead to another track meet for Fields. He’ll be chalky with tight end Cole Kmet who’s caught five touchdowns in his last three games. so if you want to mix it up in your lines go after the other Chicago pieces. David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool are all playable at a discounted price against the worst-ranked passing DVOA in the NFL.
This game totally has shoot-out potential, for when Chicago starts lighting up the scoreboard Atlanta and Marcus Mariota can absolutely keep up the pace with the Bears. Since Chicago unloaded their two best defenders in trade deals, they’ve allowed 115 points in their last three games. Although he is a risky play this week of a possible benching, Mariota has a ton of upside in this matchup. Kyle Pitts and Drake London will also be key benefactors if this game plays out. The falcons in DFS this week will allow you to pick up your high-end running backs (Saquon) and receivers (Jefferson).
Now that Cooper Kupp has been put on IR, this Rams offense could be way too unpredictable. Who knows where Stafford will look to use as his security blanket with Kupp on the bench? The targets are up for grabs in LA, but if I were looking to guess I would go cheap. The 6’4″ receiver Ben Skowronek is a nice value at ($3,900 DraftKings), but spending up for the de facto alpha Allen Robinson ($5,600 DraftKings) would not break the bank for a top-of-the-depth chart wideout. The matchup is also still great in New Orleans as long as corner Marshon Lattimore is still on the sidelines.
The rookie Chris Olave has taken full ownership of the receiving duties for the Saints well on his way to a 1,000–yard season. No one is in his way of seeing all the volume, as veteran Jarvis Landry is still getting eased back into action, and Michael Thomas has been ruled out for the season. But what really excites me in this game is the Saints’ defense. Stafford has already been a pick machine, but now with the loss of Kupp and his weak offensive line getting downgraded with more injuries, the Saints‘ DST could be a top play this week.
Taylor Heinicke may still be on cloud nine after pulling off that road upset against the undefeated Eagles. The Commanders played a textbook game of keep away from Jalen Hurts, running it down their throats with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. They draw a very favorable matchup on a Texan defense that allows over 180 rushing yards per game. Target funnel “Scary” Terry McLaurin also will catch a break in Houston lining up across rookie Derek Stingley, who will be torched on Sunday. Get any of them in your builds for Week 11, way underpriced, especially on DraftKings!
Stud rookie running back Dameon Pierce gets the most usage for the Texans on offense and is automatic at this point. But Washington is also guilty of having its own issues at cornerback with St. Juste and Fuller. Nico Collins ($4,100 DraftKings) could be in line for a huge day (10 targets in Week 10) facing a Commander secondary that ranks 25th against opposing receivers.
Vegas with a record of 2-7 and losing their fourth straight game are on the brink of a total meltdown. But don’t blame Davonte Adams for their struggles, he’s scored over 30 fantasy points in his last two games. He has fully taken over for the Raiders’ offense along with running back Josh Jacobs, who may have a sneaky smash spot in Denver. The Broncos gave up 144 yards on the ground to Jacobs in their first meeting. Not that any improvements have been made, they were gashed two weeks ago by Erienne for 156 yards. Pick your poison in Vegas.
Denver on the other hand is down to one healthy receiver in Courtland Sutton, Let’s Ride…Vegas’ secondary has been a laughingstock of the league and is unable to cover anyone (27th in receiver DVOA) who has been rolled out onto the field this season. Sutton and tight end Greg Dulcich should receive all the passing volume if the injuries to Jeudy, Hamler, and Hinton keep them sidelined.
America’s Team suffered a tough road loss in Green Bay, allowing them to come back from a 17–point deficit to victory. Put it on the Cowboys’ defense though, Dak has looked back to his normal self after his recent injury, paving the way for receiver Cee Dee Lamb and tight end Dalton Schultz to be fantasy relevant again. The Vikes are 8-1, but don’t let their record fool you as they are ranked 29th against the pass. Plenty of fireworks indoors in Minnesota, we will need to attack here for sure in DFS.
Justin Jefferson is a god. That catch in Buffalo went down as one of the best in a long time. If you have the space, put him in. If you want to pay down for some Vikings we have other options though. Tight end TJ Hockenson has seen a ton of volume since the trade, seeing 19 total targets. Dalvin Cook, remember him? He’s in another smash spot against Dallas who’s been slammed in their last two games for over 300 rushing yards.
Coming off a bye week Burrow and the gang will want to get some payback from their embarrassing home-opening loss in Week One. But with TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick back on defense, it could be a little risky paying up for the Bengals this week. Keep them out of your cash builds and take shots in tournaments only.
If you’re looking for a discount defense this week ($2,300 DraftKings), look no further. The sites still have not yet adjusted to the fact that Pittsburgh’s defense is much healthier with Watt and Fitzpatrick back. Another bargain with the Steelers is rookie receiver, George Pickens. He gets a rookie Bengal corner Cam Taylor-Britt…which should set him up to ball out even more, as he is already Pickett’s number-one target.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 11. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.
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