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NFL DFS Week 11: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

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After a smash week Week 10 NFL DFS lineups across the board (thank you, Christian Watson), let’s get back in the groove for Week 11. I hope everyone enjoyed the slate breakdown cheat-sheet I provided in Discord. Hopefully that helps your weekly process! Let’s move on to the Week 11 NFL DFS slate where it will be a rather condensed player pool for me.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

  • Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD) – Josh Allen is not 100% healthy, in a potential ugly-weather game and Lamar Jackson is a damn-near double-digit favorite outdoors in potential ugly-weather as well, so Jalen Hurts gets the nod up top for me in terms of high priced “stud” quarterbacks. You know what you’re getting with Hurts as he makes for a fine cash and GPP NFL DFS play.

    *UPDATE: Josh Allen and the Bills are now being moved to Detroit, in the dome. Fire away at Josh Allen if you’re into that spot.
  • Justin Fields ($7,600 DK / $8,700 FD) – His price is still probably too low on DraftKings as he legit has 60+ yard rushing touchdown upside at any time (as we saw again last week, lol). The fade certainly hurt my DFS upside last week, but I’ll probably ride the Fields’ train this week as I doubt his heater ends with the Falcons 28th ranked defense (in terms of DVOA). Fields is all systems go in cash and GPP again in Week 11 as he returns to his home state of Georgia.
  • Marcus Mariota ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – On FanDuel, I’d probably feel better just using the extra $300 to get to Dak Prescott, but on DraftKings, the savings offered with Marcus Mariota is very intriguing for my overall lineup construction. He’s likely got the highest “get benched” likelihood on the slate, but if you can stomach that risk, Mariota makes for an excellent NFL DFS GPP play and arguably a cash play (pending ownership).

    The Bears have absolutely no one on defense (31st overall defense DVOA) and are brutal against both the rush and the pass. In addition, this Bears’ defense has averaged over 38 points per game surrendered to their opponents over the past three weeks… If we like Justin Fields again, we should be expecting a nice up-tempo gamescript for Mariota as he needs to keep the Falcons’ offense in line with the Bears’ recent high-powered offense. Lastly, the Falcons have seemed to have somewhat broken out of their snail’s pace, run-only offense we saw in the middle of the season as we’re starting to see more no-huddle offense. Mariota has averaged the highest number of pass attempts over the past three weeks as he has all season. I’m in, but it’s risky.

Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs

  • Saquon Barkley ($8,900 DK / $9,700 FD) – No need to reinvent the wheel here, Saquon Barkley, at home, against the Lions.
  • Dalvin Cook ($8,000 DK / $8,300 FD) – Dalvin is in a smash spot here against the Cowboys’ run defense and a great game environment with a total 47.5 points (currently second highest on the slate). I love the recent usage in both the passing and running game and the AETY Model loves the upside here as it grades Dalvin Cook third in terms of touchdown equity at the running back position. Dalvin may very well come into the slate at sub-10% ownership making him a fantastic GPP play.
  • David Montgomery ($6,100 DK / $6,200 FD) – Way too cheap on both sites and the free-square type of play in my opinion with no Khalil Herbert taking every other drive for the Bears’ offense. If you’re not using Fields in cash, use Montgomery and there’s also GPP leverage here with Montgomery as Justin Fields is the anticipated QB chalk.
  • Antonio Gibson ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD) & Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – Both Commanders’ running backs in play this weekend against the #1 fantasy-friendly run defense in the Houston Texans. In cash games, I prefer Brian Robinson due to slightly more red-zone equity (and I am OK if you go double Commander on DK Cash with Terry/B-Rob), but in GPP builds, I like the versatility and pass-catching upside for Antonio Gibson. If for some reason this game shoots-out, Antonio Gibson is gamescript proof.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb, James Robinson (GPP only)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

  • Justin Jefferson ($9,100 DK / $9,100 FD) – Injury designation is no more. Fire up Justin Jefferson if you can afford him!
  • CeeDee Lamb ($7,500 DK / $8,100 FD) – Absolute core play for me in all formats this week, regardless of ownership. The Vikings’ have an extremely high Cover-3 usage rate and that is a massive advantage for CeeDee Lamb on the inside against Chandon Sullivan. Load up the CeeDee!
  • Gabe Davis ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) – With my love for CeeDee Lamb and one of Saquon Barkley or Dalvin Cook, I just cannot afford to pay up for Stefon Diggs (if you can, go for it). I really want to try to get a piece of the Bills’ offense as they have the highest implied team total on the slate and are now playing in a dome. I’ll be pushing on Gabe Davis this week due to the savings offered and the target share upgrade we’ll likely see when the Browns blitz and run their Cover-4 zone defense. Gabe is an excellent boom-or-bust 5% owned GPP play this weekend.
  • Courtland Sutton ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – Assuming Jerry Jeudy is OUT, Courtland Sutton is pretty much the only proven-game in town for the Broncos’ receiving core. With the state of this Denver Broncos’ offense, it’s probably best to keep Sutton in your cash game player pool as the upside just has not been there whatsoever for anyone in the orange uniforms.
  • Terry McLaurin ($5,900 DK / $7,300 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings. McLaurin is clearly the top-target in Washington by a mile when Taylor Heinicke is under center and this is a very winnable matchup against rookie Derrick Stingley Jr. He’s a solid play in cash game and GPP formats, though I prefer strictly cash game exposure with this game environment.
  • Darnell Mooney ($5,400 DK / $6,000 FD) – Fantastic price-points against the Falcons’ slot corner, Isaiah Oliver. The Falcons will run a lot of Cover-1, Cover-3 and Cover-2 defense which is all advantage Darnell Mooney. He will likely be a core play for me in NFL DFS GPP lineups as I’m leaning towards game-stacking CHI @ ATL.
  • Drake London ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) – I’m projecting Atlanta to be in a bit of a back-and-forth, up-tempo gamescript here and that will get me to lean on the Atlanta pass catchers. This is a beautiful buy-low spot for Drake London at extremely affordable salaries, in a dream matchup against Jaylon Jones. I’d prefer him in GPP builds only as we know the extreme volatility at hand investing in the Falcons’ passing game.
  • Parris Campbell ($4,300 DK / $5,800 FD) – Too cheap for a valued target of Matt Ryan’s who has one of the only matchups against this Philadelphia secondary that doesn’t grade as a negative in the AETY Model. Avonte Maddox is now on the IR and that should open up the middle of the field for Campbell against a pure backup cornerback in Josiah Scott. He’s fine as a value play in both cash and GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Nico Collins (cash viable on DK with the high ownership)

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

  • TJ Hockenson ($5,300 DK / $6,500 FD) – Hockenson has quietly been utilized like a borderline fantasy WR2 since he’s been traded to Vikings… 19 targets in two games! We’re getting close to Travis Kelce type of usage (obviously he isn’t Travis Kelce, but neither is his price). Hockenson will likely be around 5% in ownership and in this up-tempo Dallas @ Minnesota game, will make for an excellent GPP play. We’ll see a lot of him when Dallas shows their Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defenses.
  • Kyle Pitts ($4,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – It’s gross, but again, I’m in on this Falcons’ passing attack this week and Kyle Pitts is my top stacking option for Mariota. As mentioned in Discord, Kyle Pitts has been slowly working his way back to lining up in the slot (where he is at his best) and away from in-line snaps. Either Arthur Smith is starting to understand how serious of a weapon Kyle Pitts is or it’s a fluke. I lean on the side that the slot snap-share rising is a strategic move.

    Although Pitts won’t exclusively see Kyler Gordon in coverage (the others in coverage for the Bears aren’t much better), this is a matchup we need to pick-on. Gordon has allowed massive production to all those who line up against him as he’s given up the most receiving yards in the NFL to receivers targeted in the slot, by a wide margin. Pitts should absolutely smash the Bears’ Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defenses (as long as this game stays up-tempo). He’s a fine play for GPP’s and arguably viable in cash.
  • Dalton Schultz ($4,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Not quite as sexy as Hockenson’s recent usage, but 15 targets over his past two games is excellent on a slate when there is no Travis Kelce. The red-zone utilization is also taking a massive leap upward now that Dak Prescott is back. This is a game I love to attack and Schultz is more of a WR2 than he is a mid-tier priced tight-end.
  • Greg Dulcich ($3,800 DK / $5,500 FD) – I personally have zero interest in Dulcich outside of cash games. On FanDuel, I’d advise going elsewhere, on DraftKings, it looks like he’ll be the highest owned tight-end by a mile so it’s safe to go there if you need savings.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Tyler Higbee, Cole Kmet

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Denver Broncos
  • Washington Commanders
  • New Orleans Saints
  • New York Jets
  • Houston Texans
  • Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

  • CeeDee Lamb
  • David Montgomery
  • Saquon Barkley
  • Greg Dulcich
  • Terry McLaurin

NFL DFS GPP Core (DraftKings)

I’ll be out of town this weekend for a wedding so I want to share my NFL DFS GPP “core” that I usually give out on the Sunday livestream if anyone is interested. Good luck this week!

  • Marcus Mariota (risky as hell, so I understand if you don’t want to go there)
  • Dalvin Cook
  • CeeDee Lamb
  • Darnell Mooney
  • Kyle Pitts

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

Content Director for Win Daily Sports NFL/MLB. Creator of the AETY Model. Chicago White Sox die-hard. Focusing on helping others manage their bankroll and cross the pay line in NFL/MLB Cash Games & GPP's. CoFounder of thoroughbred horse racing partnership, Reta Racing LLC.

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