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Nelson Cruz

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 07/04

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Happy July 4 everyone. Hope you will all get to celebrate with good food and a drink in hand. Today’s slate, while a little smaller than normal for a Sunday, provides us with solid options on the hill and also some solid options at the plate. It’s shaping up for a fun slate.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Freddy Peralta ($9.9k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – I should preface this pick with saying that the Pirates are not a high strike out time. That somewhat puts a cap on Peralta’s ceiling today. Peralta however is an elite strikeout arm. Strike out pitchers find strike outs. There’s a reason they are strike out pitchers.

If Houser was able to K 5 against this team on Friday night, I see no reason why Peralta can’t get that number up to 7 or 8. My concern always with Peralta is his efficiency. He throws a lot of pitches in a short period of time and rarely goes beyond 6 innings. That said, he has a great match-up today against a weak hitting Pirates lineup. With Peralta’s elite level 37% K rate, I see some upside in him today.

Charlie Morton ($9k) vs. Miami Marlins – Over the past week the Marlins have the third highest K rate of any team in baseball and the third lowest hard hit rate. I’m going to attack them, especially when a solid pitcher is on the mound. Today we have a solid pitcher throwing against them in Morton.

Over the past month Morton has been pitching extremely well. He has a 27% K rate to go with a 3.7 XFIP. He’s giving up a ton of grounders also which really helps to limit damage as he’s only given up one long ball in his last 29 innings of work. With the Marlins struggling and Morton pitching well, he’s my clear number 2 today.

Lucas Giolito ($9.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is the cheapest we are getting Giolito in more than a month. He gets a great match-up today against a team that has a 26% K rate this year vs. righties. While the Tigers will show some signs of life every now and then, if we look at their body of work as a whole this season they are still a very weak offense. Especially against righties.

They have one of the lowest wRC+’s of any team today against the handedness at which they are facing. It sits at just 91. With Giolito we’re still getting a pitcher who has a 27% K rate over the past 30 days and an xFIP under 4.

The one area of concern with Gio is that he is giving up homers at a pretty quick pace. He’s given up 8 in his last 31 innings. While it is a high number, he doesn’t put many runners on with a WHIP of just 1.03 over that same time frame. So we know if he gives up a homer or two they will more than likely be solo shots.

I also really like Robbie Ray ($10.8K). He’s just really expensive and when we look at price point and match-up, I like the other 3 better. He still warrants consideration as he has a ton of upside every outing with his extremely high K rate.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Anderson – While I prefer the Brewers vs. against righties, they do have a handful of guys that hit for power vs. lefties.

I like attacking pitchers that have low K upside and have a high HR/FB ratio. We have that today in Anderson. His HR/FB ratio is 18.5% which is the second highest on the slate. His K rate at 12.7% over the past 30 days is the second lowest on the slate.

With how hot the Brewers have been recently, you just have to love the match-up here. The two guys that standout the most to me today with the Brewers are Garcia ($3k) and Taylor ($2.3k). Both have ISO’s greater than .260 against lefties this year and wOBA’s over .370. I’m building around them. All Brewers are in play though as they are just scorching hot right now.

Chicago White Sox vs. Matt Manning – White Sox are a little banged up right now but they have a great match-up today. Manning hast just not been good since getting called up to the bigs. So far this year he’s giving up a 56% hard hit rate with just a 6.7% K rate. So he’s giving up a ton of hard contact and not getting any K’s.

If we look at splits, the hard hit rate is pretty much equal to both sides of the plate. Where we see the difference is the fly ball rate as it jumps to 44% vs. lefties. Because of that, I want to prioritize the lefties. If Goodwin ($3.1k) hits in the cleanup spot, he’s a must play. Sheets ($3.2k) is also a must play as he gets the platoon match-up and he’s swinging a hot bat. Over the past week he has a .531 wOBA and a 1.345 OPS. All batters in this lineup should be in play today.

Minnesota Twins vs. Brad Keller – Twins lost a little bit of their lineup yesterday with Donaldson getting banged up, but I really like this spot for the Twins. While Keller is a high ground-ball pitcher, he’s also someone that when giving up a fly ball there’s a strong likelihood of the ball going over the fence due to his high hard hit rate. Keller has one of the highest HR/FB ratios of the pitchers going today.

In looking at his pitch profile he’s a sinker ball pitcher. Twins have some guys that have had great success against this pitch. Nelson Cruz ($4.2k) automatically comes to mind. Over the past several seasons he has a .255 ISO to this pitch with a low whiff rate. He’s also been heating up as he has a .505 wOBA over the past week with a 1.218 OPS. He’s my building block with a Twins stack. While he hasn’t been hot of late, Arraez ($3k) will be hitting lead-off and also has some success against this pitch.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. Make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups. Unlike the last few days we are blessed with clear skies everywhere today.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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3 years ago 0 comment

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 4/17 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

We’ve got some live arms and potent bats in this edition of Aces and Bases focusing ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET.

There are no bad weather issues but a possible COVID outbreak on the Houston Astros means we have to stay vigilant on news and have pivots at the ready!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,900)

Kershaw is the highest-priced arm and the likely chalk, but I’d venture to say that Darvish has more contrarian upside in a home matchup against a team that’s not known for swing-and-misses, but doesn’t have a lot of experience facing Darvish. The Japanese marvel is notoriously tricky to solve and seemed at ease in his last two starts — and while Kershaw might be the preferred option in cash games, I’ll take the cheaper San Diego RHP in GPPs for some leverage on the field, since only a small percentage of DFS gamers will use pitchers against the “Boys in Blue.”

Best Value: Dane Dunning ($8,000)

I’m a little concerned about getting six innings from Dunning, and that seems to be where he’d max out at his current pitch count progression, but he’ striking out more than a batter per inning in three major league starts and the command for this 26-year-old RHP. He throws a nasty sinker that complements his four-seamer and mixes in a decent slider and occasional use of a change and curveball. The Orioles strike out at the second-highest clip in the majors this season and Dunning could offer the cheapest path to 8+ Ks and a quality start.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (RHP Chris Flexen)

The Astros have the fourth-highest team xOBA in baseball (.342) and shouldn’t have much trouble against the eminently hittable Chris Flexen. I’m most interested in some combination of the 2-6 hitters here, which could include Aledmys Diaz ($2,600), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Yuri Gurriel ($2,800), Kyle Tucker ($3,500) and Carlos Correa ($3,000). The prices are discounted a bit on these guys without Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman — who all hit the injured listed for undisclosed reasons, prompting rumors of a possible COVID outbreak. Stay tuned since there could be some news of a postponement or more players hitting that list.

Value/Contrarian Stack: Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (Jose Quintana)

So far this season, Jose Quintana has had a very difficult time retiring the 27 RH batters he’s faced, and he’s clearly on the downside of his career when those splits tend to become a little more exaggerated. The Twins are loaded with relatively inexpensive powerful righty hitters like Nelson Cruz ($3,800), Josh Donaldson ($3,000), Mitch Garver ($2,400) and Miguel Sano ($2,800). I was on them last night and they didn’t deliver against Andrew Heaney — a solid pitcher in his own right — but I’m going right back to the well. Cruz alone sports an obscene .570 wOBA and .440 ISO vs. LHP over his last 63 games, and Donaldson, Garver and Kyle Garlick ($2,200) all mash against LHP.

EDIT: The Twins-Angels game has been postponed, so remove any players associated with that game ASAP.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Trevor Cahill)

It’s not one of those slates where you need to deploy a very inexpensive secondary value stack, but the Brewers strike me as a classic boom-or-bust GPP stack you might want to mix into a few large, low-cost tournaments for their upside and potent lefty bats, including Travis Shaw ($2,900), Omar Narvaez ($2,700) and Christian Yelich ($4,100), who’s missed four straight with a back injury but is still considered DTD. If he can’t go, Billy McKinney ($2,000) could get the start, as both he and Jackie Bradley ($2,400) have been used to spell Yelich. Also keep an eye on Daniel Vogelbach at just $2,100. If you’re looking to run a Pirtes hitter back against the group, I’d prefer 3B Phillip Evans, who’s been raking against LHP this season and hits out of the 4 slot.

Good luck!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/7 MLB DFS Four-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s a busy Monday in the MLB postseason, so let’s jump right into the 10/7 DFS picks for the four-game slate and the featured Showdown contests on DraftKings.

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The games: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (1:05 p.m. EST), Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (3:07 p.m.), Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (6:40 p.m.) and New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (8:40 p.m. EST)

SP Strategy and Picks

There should be enough value in the bats to allow us to use my two favorite pitchers in this slate.

SP1: Luis Severino (DK $8,600, FD $8,400)

It’s been about a year since Severino took the mound in theplayoffs, the last time a disastrous outing against the Red Sox in which he gaveup six runs in three-plus innings in the ALDS, but this is his redemption tour.He’s been electric (12.75 K/9, 2.13 FIP) since returning from injury and shouldbe fresh, last pitching in a three-inning,72-pitch outing against the Rangers on Sept. 28. Sevy is affordable and makesfor a fine SP1 if he can throw about 80-85 pitches.

SP2:Zack Greinke (DK $9,100, FD 10,300)

Greinke was 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts after beingacquired from the D-backs in a July trade, going 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA for the2019 season. He even carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning of his finalregular-season start on Sept. 25 in Seattle and shouldn’t need his best stuffto dispatch this Rays team that’s been struggling at the plate and has animplied run total under 4.

Other options: Dallas Keuchel/Julio Teheran (value), Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer

10/7 DFS Hitters

10/7 DFS C: Brian McCann (DK $3,200, FD$2,600)

He’s cheap and has power upside, with a .343 xWOBA against RHPs over his last two seasons. McCann has plenty of playoff experience and already has a couple hits this series. The Braves are a talented bunch and McCann is a fearless team leader. Pivot: Gary Sanchez

10/7 DFS 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL (DK$4,200, FD $3,900)

We’regetting a legendary playoff performer at a huge discount here, and he’s facingthe team with the worst pitching – so that’s a huge reason I’m leaning towardGoldschmidt. He put up somesolid numbers and metrics (145 wRC+ and .313 ISO) this season and is mypreferred 1B on this slate. Pivot: Freddie Freeman

10/7 DFS 2B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,800,3B on FD $3,900)

I’ve toutedhim before in this column and he’s been awesome thus far in the postaseason,with four hits (three XBH) in nine ABs and a homer and 4 RBI. There are someother folks I want to play at 3B on DK, so plug him in at second base on thatsite and UTIL on FD. Pivot: Max Muncy

10/7 DFS 3B: Anthony Rendon, WAS (DK $4,500,FD $4,300)

Plugging in Alex Bregman here is fine, but Charlie Morton should help to limit the amount of damage the Astros do in this game, so I’m using Rendon against LHP Rich Hill. Rendon has three hits in his last two games and Hill isn’t the dominating force he was in previous seasons. With a .289 ISO against LHPs over his last couple of seasons, Rendon — who was REALLY hot when the season started and could be getting going again — has me stuck on him here. Pivot: Gio Urshela/Josh Donaldson

10/7 DFS SS: Didi Gregorius, NYY (DK $3,900,FD $3,300)

When Didi gets hot, he’s a dangerous hitter, and we get him at a very affordable price. His grand slam in Game Two put the contest out of reach for the Twins and gives Sir Didi the requisite confidence to set aside some of his struggles and produce in this circular Yankees lineup. Pivot: Danby Swanson

10/7 DFS OF: Nick Markakis, ATL (DK $3,500,FD $2,800)

Spending down a little more at the corner infield positions allows you some more expensive OF, but I’ll be looking for some value in my outfield and Markakis is the perfect play at this price. He had a double in Game 1 and sits nicely in the Braves lineup between the dangerous Josh Donaldson and lefty-mashing Matt Joyce. Solid numbers against RHPs (.817 OPS, .387 xWOBA over his last two seasons) clinch it for me. Pivot: Michael Brantley/Max Kepler

10/7 DFS OF: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (DK $3,900,FD $3,700)

Stanton is hitless in the postseason and is still scoring fantasy points – largely because pitchers are afraid of throwing him anything near the strike zone and hes drawing walks, even with the bases loaded! The big fella is still getting in good ABs and is ready to bust out facing an overmatched Jake Odorizzi. Pivot: Aaron Judge/Eddie Rosario

10/7 DFS OF: Brett Gardner, NYY (DK $4,100,FD $3,000)

Lets go right back to the well with Gardy, who’s been hot at the plate over the past few weeks and offers immense upside in the heart of the Yankees lineup. He gets us just under the salary line at his reasonable price point and will be looking to finish off this series with the help of his lively bat. Pivot: Marwin Gonzalez/Josh Reddick

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10/7 DFS Featured Single-Game (1:05 EST on FD)

Hitters only – so stack up the best Astros bats and look for valuewithin the more pesky Rays. There’s just a lot of ways to go here, but I’lllikely be using a top Astros hitter in my MVP slot.

Sample FD lineup:

MVP (2x) – J. Altuve ($8,500) or Yordan Alvarez ($8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($9,500)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)

UTIL – Austin Meadows ($7,000) or Yuri Gurriel ($6,500)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,500) or Tommy Pham ($6,500)

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10/7 DFS Featured Showdown (8:40 p.m. on DK)

I may fade the pitchers in this game entirely given the probableextensive use of both bullpens. I’m fine using Severino in the classic format,but he might be a little overpriced for Showdown.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Balanced w/hitters from both teams)

Captain (1.5x) – D. Gregorius ($10,500)

UTIL – N. Cruz ($10,600) or Aaron Judge ($9,800)

UTIL – E. Rosario ($7,600)

UTIL – M. Kepler ($7,400)

UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)

UTIL – G. Urshela ($6,600)

If you’re hell-bent on using Sevy and stacking the best NYY bats,we can go with him at a UTIL spot and use Aroldis Chapman for one of the UTILspots as well.

Sample with Severino at UTIL:

Captain (1.5x) – A. Judge ($14,700)

UTIL – L. Severino ($10,400)

UTIL – D.J. LeMahieu ($9,400)

UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)

UTIL – J. Cave ($5,200)

UTIL – A. Chapman ($3,000)

I’d play around with a few different variations at the CPT spot, usingsome inexpensive Yankees bats who are just as likely to come up in big spots asthe more noted sluggers.

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/19 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Twins Will Get You Wins

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a split slate for 9/19 DFS: DraftKings has a six-game slate that starts at 6:35, while FanDuel is excluding the Angels-Yankees again and starting a four-gamer at 7:05. We’re focusing on three stacks and just a couple contrarian builds, as well as our usual buffet of hitters at every position. Let’s get rolling, because the Yanks and Twins will get you wins!

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9/19 DFS Hitting Stacks ofthe Day

Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Montgomery

The Twins were a total dud on Wednesday night against the fullWhite Sox bullpen, scoring just one run on three hits across nine boringinnings. Today is a great day for a rebound, as the Royals left-hander can beexposed by hitters from both sides of the plate. Montgomery has been a reversesplits pitcher this season, yielding an amusing .443/.464/.709 slash toopposing LHBs. Over the course of his whole career, the disparity isn’t as noticeable.I like all the Twins here, since they brutalize lefties (.287/.353/.523 slash,.363 wOBA and a 127 wRC+) and will be starting my stacks with Eddie Rosario,Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver (who’s an insane $5,600 on DK). Add in Miguel Sanoor C.J. Cron on FD and Jorge Polanco on DK.

New York Yankees vs. Andrew Heaney (DK)

I was little concerned about the Yankees rolling out an unorthodoxlineup with the division clinched, but Tampa came back and beat the Dodgers! They’llbe hungry for their 100^th win of the season and thirsty forchampagne on their home turf, but they’ll be facing a left-hander who’s pitchedquite well in 2019. Their salaries are a little low because of the matchup, butHeaney isn’t enough to keep me off them. I’ll be using a lot of Mike Clevinger withMasahiro Tanaka/Kyle Gibson/Drew Verhagen, so there will be plenty of combosthat will allow me to stack D.J. LeMahieu ($4,600), Gleyber Torres ($4,700), AaronJudge ($4,500), Gio Urshela ($4,300) and Luke Voit ($4,400) though I’ll only begrabbing a few shares of Giancarlo Stanton at his outrageous price ($5,400)

Toronto Blue Jays at Gabriel Ynoa

I said Tuesday the Blue Jays would be a sneaky stack, and CavanBiggio responded by hitting for the cycle. They’re not as sneaky this timearound, since they battled with Baltimore last night as the teams combined for21 runs. Ynoa is 1-8 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and he’s given up 25 homeruns in just 100.1 IP. All the usual suspects make sense here, with the 1-5hitters as the priority bats.

9/19 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Cleveland Indians vs. Daniel Norris/Drew VerHagen

St. Louis Cardinals at Kyle Hendricks (contrarian)

9/19 DFS HittingCatcher

Austin Romine, NYY vs. LAA

DK ($3,600)

Pay $2,000 more for Mitch Garver on DK if you want, but if youwant some cheap exposure to the Yankees, blend Romine into your Yankees stacks.He’s slashing .281/.312/.438 this season and sports an impressive .172 ISO vs.LHPsthis season. Romine isn’t the most exciting option, but we need to save a littleit of salary somewhere, and if we’re not paying way up or Garver, Romine makessense.

9/19 DFS Hitting FirstBaseman

Rowdy Tellez or JustinSmoak, TOR at BAL

DK (both$3,900) FD ($2,600/$2,700)

Since Tellez sat on Tuesday and ruined all my work recommendinghim, I’ll bring you up to speed: Rowdy scored three runs on Wednesday and isstill destroying right-handed pitching (.209 ISO this season). It’s usuallyeither him or Justin Smoak in the lineup, and I like them both in Baltimore’sbandbox. Smoak boasts a .231 ISO vs. RHPs in 2019.

9/19 DFS Hitting SecondBaseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($5.300) FD($3,900)

Biggio hit for the cycle on Tuesday and is the one Jays bat I wantin all my GPP lineups. I touted is speed and power abilities and he respondedby doing what five-tool platers do – mashing and slashing. Biggio is 14-for-29 overhis last seven games with 133 DK points over that span (19 FPPG). And his .112wRC+ this season is in the top 10 among 2B.

9/19 DFS Hitting ThirdBaseman

D.J. LeMahieu, NYY vs. LAA

(DK $4,600)

LeMahieu is having an MVP-caliber season for the Yankeeswith a wRC+ of 136 and a torrid slash line of .329/.378/.515. He’s ben their steadiestplayer and has flashed impressive power (.186 ISO) against both LHPs and RHPs. His.402 wOBA and 154 wRC+ in Yankee Stadium is tops on the team, and he’ll be inmost of my lineups tonight.

9/19 DFSHitting Shortstop

Gleyber Torres, NYY vs. LAA

DK ($4,700)

Lindor was a complete disappointment Tuesday, so I’ll be goingback to him in about 2/10 lineups, but the rest of them will have shares of Torresat SS or 2B, where he’s also eligible. Torres has a .255 ISO, .353 OBP, .369wOBA and 132 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019, and he’s now hitting in the heart of the Yankeeslineup.

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9/19 DFS HittingOutfielders

Eddie Rosario, MIN vs. KC

DK ($4,800) FD($3,200)

You can’t keep a great hitter down for long, and Rosario(.281/.313/.453 slash vs. LHPs in 2019) is a solid GPP play because he’ll onlybe in about half of the Twins stacks because he’s a lefty bat against a southpaw– a great opportunity against a guy like Montgomery. The Royals starter mightget pulled for a righty after he gets lit up by these Twins, and then your shortsightedDFS opponents will be kicking themselves for not having more exposure to Rosario’s.378 xwOBA against RHPs since 2018.

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. LAA

DK($4,500)

It’s hard to believe this price on Judge, who went deep again onWednesday, but it’s something I’ll be taking advantage of in cash games andGPPS alike. Judge brutalizes lefties, with a .461 wOBA in 120 PA this season,including .347/.467/.663 slash and 8 homers. He hits the ball as hard as anyonewho’s ever played the game, as he sits in the 100^th percentile forExit Velocity and Hard Hit %. Get him in there – he’s primed for a monster day.

Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. CHC

DK ($4,200) FD($3,700)

Ozuna has been relatively quiet lately, so he’s really cheap. Healso has .382 xwOBA this year and has been a much better road hitter this seasonwith a .262/.336/.519 slash and 15 of his 28 HRs in away games. Ozuna also ranksin the 93th percentile for Exit Velocity and 98^th percentile forHard Hit % — and makes for a nice contrarian play vs. a capable hurler in Kyle Hendricks.

Additional options:

C: Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD), Mitch Garver ($5,600 DK,$3,000 FD)

1B: Carlos Santana ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD), C.J. Cron ($3,900 DK, $2,800FD)

3B: Gio Urshela ($4,300 DK) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($4,100 DK,$2,900 FD)

2B: Jonathan Villar ($4,800 DK, $3,600 FD), Luis Arraez ($4,200DK, $2,700 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Jorge Polance ($4,800 DK, $3,300FD)

OF: Whit Merrifield ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD), Anthony Santander ($3,900 DK, $3,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,300 DK), Randal Grichuk ($4,500 DK, $3,000 FD), Dexter Fowler ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/5 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Sporting Sox and Dinger Locks

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

On our Thursday 9/5 DFS 7:05 main slate, there are seven ballgames – with one that stands out as a good single-game stack with a couple one-offs (a hot-hitting Cub and some RHBs on the lefty-mashing Houston buzzsaw). Are we ready to, once again, embrace the variance and win some green? You bet we are – and there’s enough pitching value to fade the top arms and build a lineup with serious studs.

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9/5 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Boston Red Sox vs. Martin Perez

Most of this stack’s full-bodied components will be discussed hitterby hitter in greater detail below, but this is my top stack of the slate and I’llhave plenty of exposure to this game in general. The usual suspects apply. TheRed Sox are slashing a robust .285/.355/.506 at home this season and there’s nobodyI’d be careful to avoid.

Minnesota Twins at Nathan Eovaldi

The Twins have a little tougher matchup as they are underdogs inFenway Park, but they’d slashed .319/.384/.584 as a team over the past 7 daysheading into last night’s tough matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (which resultedin a 6-2 loss). Look for the Twins to rebound in a big way against a hittable Eovaldi(6.23 ERA, 5.62 FIP). I like the outfielders (though Max Kepler was removedfrom last night’s game with upper chest soreness) and the slugging infielders (JorgePolanco, Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, Luis Arraez).

Houston Astros vs. Marco Gonzales

Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuri Gurriel make up the core of this stack, with Michael Brantley and/or Yordan Alvarez rounding it out on FD/DK. But if you’ve only got room for hitters like Aledmys Diaz, Abraham Toro and cheap catching option Robinson Chirinos, there’s still plenty of reason to get excited. The Astros has demolished LHPs this season to the tune of a 133 wRC+ and have great number sat home (.217 team ISO with just an 18.8% K rate – the second lowest in the league).

9/5 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Chicago Cubs at Chase Anderson (Reverse splits pitcher and an implied total near 5 runs)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kolby Allard (high-risk/value/contrarian)

Tampa Rays vs. Trent Thornton (high-risk/value/contrarian)

9/5 DFS Hitting Catcher

Jason Castro, MIN at BOS UPDATE: Castro is not in the starting lineup

PIVOT: Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($3,400) FD ($3,000)

With Castro starting this game out on the bench, I’m pivoting to Chirinos. He’s about the same price and offers similar upside in this matchup. Chirinos sports a .444 xwOBA in 174 ABs (217 plate appearances) vs. LHPs over the past couple of seasons.

9/5 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Yuri Gurriel, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($4,300) FD ($3,600)

Gurriel has cooled off a little bit since his insane July (.408/.437/.847 in 24 games), but not much, as he posted a .344/.423/.677 slash in August. He’s actually a little better against RHPs but maintains a .237 ISO vs. lefties, so he’s maybe a tad contrarian if you’re mini-stacking stacking Astros along with Boston bats. The .298 home ISO and 148 home wRC+ make him an attractive option.

9/5 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Jose Altuve, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($4,500) FD ($4,300)

Altuve (.302/.369/.599 with 14 HR at home this season) isunderpriced on DK and the Astros have the second highest implied total (about 6runs) on the evening slate. The diminutive slugger has been in a bit of a funk withno XBH on the five-game road trip, but a return to friendlier confines could bejust what he needs. It’s hard to find better implied value at this position, sowhy look past the five-and-a-half footer if we’re putting our best foot forward?

9/5 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Rafael Devers, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,300) FD($4,100)

Lefty on lefty for Devers hasn’t bothered me since he took AroldisChapman deep as a youngster for the Sox, and he’ll be an overlooked part of theBoston stack and low-owned because of it. He’s completely avoidable if you’renot stacking this team, but I love going with Devers at 3B because he’s alwaysin the thick of this offense and his production this season (.320/.369/.579 slashwith 29 HR and 107 RBI) shows it.

9/5 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,100)

We’ve had success recently with Bogaerts, and this is agreat matchup for the power-hitting SS to show off his .416 xwOBA against LHPs overthe past two seasons. Martin Perez isn’t a bad pitcher these days, but he has stillyielded a .184 ISO and .865 OPS since 2018. I’ve been doing well not overthinkingon Xander, so that’ll continue as I plug him into most of my lineups at SS. Thesomewhat underpriced Alex Bregman ($4,900 DK, $4,400 FD) is the obvious pivotat 3B and SS if you’re not anxious play both Devers and Bogaerts.

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9/5 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Mookie Betts, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,000) FD ($4,200)

Bettshad a monster game last night and when Mookie gets hot, you continue to playhim. Boston’s leadoff hitter connected for a couple homers last night en routeto a 4-for-5, five RBI night. He’s still underpriced at $5K on DK and is a Benjamincheaper than J.D. Martinez on FD. Since the start of 2018, Betts is sporting anxwOBA of .430 against LHPs and even if Perez gets yanked early, a righthander faceseven more obscene Betts data (.468 xwOBA vs. RHPs and home xwOBA of .478).

Nicholas Castellanos, CHI at MIL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,500)

Mr. Castellanos has taken the Windy City by storm, and he getsto travel to Milwaukee to hit in a controlled environment. The problem is thatthese walls cannot possibly contain him either, and he’s been a revelatory offensivepowerhouse since joining the Cubs in a deadline deal, slashing .346/.378/.709 witha ridiculous .362 ISO, .439 wOBA, 12 homers and 24 RBI in just 31 games. It’snot just Wrigley, either: the bell-ringer has split his dingers 6/6 betweenhome and road. Plus, he’s massively underpriced facing a reverse-splits righty (ChaseAnderson) on a small slate. It’ll be tough to leave him out in any format.

Sam Travis, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($3,300) FD (1B $2,800)

The Sox are my favorite team and Travis is much-welcomed valueto help you finish them off on FD with these four hitters I’ve listed, or even addin another bat on DK if you’re going that route. He hits lefties well (.382 xwOBA,.200 ISO and under a 20% strikeout rate over the past two seasons). He’s higherrisk and may attract some ownership, but at that low, low price I’ll make roomto differentiate elsewhere.

Additional options:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD), Travis d’Arnaud($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD)

1B: Josh Bell ($4,800 DK, $4,200 FD), Garrett Cooper (valueat $3,500 DK, $2,700 FD)

2B: Jonathan Schoop ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD), Starlin Castro($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD)

3B: Abraham Toro ($2,600 DK, $3,200 FD, Miguel Sano ($5,100DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Alex Bregman, Jonathan Villar ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD)and possibly Javier Baez (thumb, DTD – $4,600 DK, $4,100)

OF: Twins galore (Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, JakeCave), Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Ryan Braun (.475 xwOBA vs. LHPs, 415ISO including five career HR vs. Jose Quintana)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/2 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Here we are, it’s Labor Day. While most of you were still sleeping, I was sitting here spinning records, and poring over the 9/2 MLB DFS Pitching Picks. One of the things I love about having a Monday holiday is a bevy of MLB games to watch.

On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate we are starting a new format, besides giving you my top pitching picks to play, I will also be giving you some top pitching picks to attack. This all part of our continuing effort to bring you the highest quality analysis in the industry. Speaking of quality analysis, if you did not already know we now have a show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio on Saturday nights from 11 pm to 1 am EST. Make sure you tune in. So, without further delay, I bring you today’s top plays.

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On theDefense

JakeOdorizzi vs. Detroit Tigers

$9,700 FD / $10,500 DK

The Detroit Tigers are a prime team to attack on any given day, and this 9/2 MLB DFS slate is no different. They are striking out 27.3 percent of the time (1^st in MLB) with a .292 wOBA versus RHPs this season. Meanwhile, Odorizzi has been steady mobbin’ to the tune of RHBs, hitting a whopping .187 off him this season. With the Tigers being extremely right-handed heavy, Jake not from State Farm should dominant this Little League lineup today.

NoahSyndergaard vs Washington Nationals

$9,000 FD / $10,000 DK

In GPP play on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, even facing a teamthat mashes RHPs like the Nationals, I would seriously consider using Thor. Eventhough the Nats have ugly numbers versus opposing pitchers this season, they donot versus Syndergaard. Over three starts versus Washington this season Thorhas 18 strikeouts over 21 innings with eight earned runs, four of them comingin his first start back in late March. With Syndergaard having a road ERA of 3.49versus his 4.73 ERA at home, everything appears to be a go for him today.

MasahiroTanaka vs. Texas Rangers

$8,000 FD / $8,100 DK

Tanaka, much like Julio Teheran of years past, is much more dominant at home. So far this season he is posting a 3.26 home ERA as opposed to his 5.93 ERA on the road. The Rangers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low wRC+ of 86, while batting a pathetic .202 over the last seven. Despite Masahiro’s ups and downs as of late, in his last start facing Seattle he sent seven to the dugout mad while pitching a seven-inning shutout. On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate Tanaka is one of my favorite plays for the price.

Joe Rossvs. New York Mets

$6.800 FD / $6,600 DK

For the record on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate I prefer this play a lot more on DK over FD. Although the price is still nice on FD, I think the value is better served in the SP2 slot on DK. The Mets can be very dangerous to attack in MLB DFS versus RHPs, they are in the middle of the pack striking out 20 percent of the time with a .319 wOBA. But Ross has looked too good as of late to pass up here. Over his last five starts spanning a little more than 25 innings, he has only allowed three earned runs while striking out 16 batters. My biggest concern is innings here, as he does have a few starts in that span where he failed to reach the five-inning mark.

On theAttack

Drew Smylyvs. Cincinnati Reds

For fantasy owners Drew Smyly has done anything but make you smile. Over his last five starts he has allowed 20 earned runs over his last 26 innings, making the Reds a prime stack on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate. Cincinnati has some powerful RHBs, and is posting a .328 wOBA versus LHPs, Smyly is in serious trouble today in the Great American Small Park.

Notable Bats

Aristides Aquino has a .578 wOBA and 261 wRC+ versusLHPs with four straight games without a HR.

Phillip Ervin has .488 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPswhile batting .333 with two home runs over the last seven days. He also hasfound his way into the three spot.

Eugenio Suarez has .423 wOBA and 160 wRC+ versus LHPs and has seven home runs over his last nine games. He did leave yesterday’s second game of the doubleheader with a hand injury so keep your eyes peeled here.

JordanZimmerman vs. Minnesota Twins

The McRib, Roller skates, and Sandy Koufax are three thingsthat all had to come to an end. Much like Jordan Zimmerman’s good starts as oflate. Although he has three starts in a row allowing two earned runs or less,the last time he faced Minnesota they bombed him for five runs over threeinnings sending the Zim home in dismay. I see serious regression here today andwill stack against this geriatric pitcher on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate facing a Twinsteam posting a .345 wOBA versus RHPs.

Notable Bats

Nelson Cruz is crushing everyone and RHPs are notdifferent. He is posting .411 wOBA and wRC+ of 158 versus RHPs this season.

Mitch Garver currently has a .396 wOBA versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 147. Over the last seven days he is also batting .455 with three home runs.

Luis Arraez, if he gets the start today, which I believe he will, has a .374 wOBA versus RHPs with a complimentary 133 wRC+. With bigger bats, and $4,000 price tag on DK, you can get him at a low ownership today for sure.

Mike Minorvs. New York Yankees

The New York Yankees hit home runs like I eat Beyond Burgers, pretty much every day. I know this, does Mike Minor? If not, he will soon enough. The Yankees are crushing lefties to the tune of .360 wOBA this season with a wRC+ of 121, both which are 4^th in MLB. The magic number is 55, remember that number on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, it is how many dingers the Yanks have launched this season versus lefties. With Minor allowing 10 earned runs in his last 12 1/3 innings, I suspect the number will be much higher tomorrow. Keep in mind that Minor has reverse splits, so do not be afraid to go lefty on lefty here in GPPs.

Notable Bats

D.J. LeMahieu is posting .476 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPs this season. Despite the horrible BVP versus Minor I would still rank him at the top batting .400 with two home runs over the last seven days.

Aaron Judge has returned to pass judgement with his .470 wOBA versus LHPs. He is batting .375 with three home runs over the last seven days and I fully see him putting one out today.

Luke Voit has posted a .354 wOBA this season along with a wRC+ of 120 versus LHPs. I like the pricing for him on both sites today and will have a lot of exposure to him. If Mike Ford somehow draws the start, that will certainly be my pivot.

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

With the Tigers striking out 27.2 percent of the time versus RHPs, and Odorizzi striking out six batters or more in four out of his last five starts the over here seems to easy.

Zimmerman more-than-likely will not see enough innings after the Twins bats get a hold of him today, so the under here is where I am looking.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/4 MLB DFS Winners

Andrew Erickson 5 years ago

written by Andrew Erickson

A 16-game slate yesterday with a few highlights from our team on the 8/4 MLB DFS Report.

Nelson Cruz

Nelson Cruz was on fire last night at the plate, going 3-for-4 with three homers, five RBI, three runs. He was highlighted by David Jones on the MLB DFS Hitting Picks as the Outfield Stud pick of the day.

Outlook: He has the most HR in the 2010s. Cruz still has the potential to hit 45 HR this season and is leading the Twins with their unreal production at the plate.

Jason Kipnis

Our founder Jason Mezrahi chose Kipnis as his value second baseman on his MLB Cheatsheet. Kipnis went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run from the seven spot in the order.

Outlook: Batting .316 in his last 15 games, Kipnis is swinging a hot stick. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit for much power and the guys ahead of him in the lineup are not hitting, giving him no one to drive in.

Trey Mancini

Jason also had Mancini on his Cheatsheet, and it paid off for DFS players. He went 1-for-4 with a home run, four RBI and a run. His power numbers are going up recently, as he has seven in the last 15 games.

Outlook: He has had some pop as of late but avoid him as Sean Reid-Foley only allows about one home run every nine innings. Find someone with a higher potential on the 8/4 MLB DFS slate.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny: August 3rd

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

This Saturday August 3rd slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my studs and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

MLB DFS Hitters: Home Run Hunting on the Main Slate

Catcher: Mitch Garver ($3,500 FD; $5,200 DK) is hitting .431 ISO/.500 wOBA vs lefties this year, which is only behind Nelson Cruz on the Twins. Danny Duffy (4.42 ERA) will be tossing to Garver on his home turf tonight. Garver certainly has the power (.629 SLG) to get his ninth home run in only his 75th AB against southpaws. Keep an eye on where he bats today. The closer to the top of the lineup he is, the more I like him in MLB DFS. He had admittedly been on a cold streak lately before busting out of it yesterday. Let’s hop on the beginning of another hot streak in Minnesota.

First Base Stud: Rhys Hoskins ($4,200 FD; $4,600 DK) I am going with some Phillies today. Hoskins also gets the pleasure of taking on Ross Detwiler. He is batting .307 ISO/ .454 wOBA vs left handed pitching this season. I usually hate stacking Phillies, but the matchup is too good to ignore today. Hoskins has a couple of long balls in his last four games and bats better at home. He has five more home runs at Citizens Bank Park this year with five less at bats than on the road.

Honorable Mention: Edwin Encarnacion

First Base Value: Albert Pujols ($2,900 FD; $4,300 DK) There is something about this man hitting value, and home runs, on the weekends. I know it is coincidence, but it just keeps happening. We are looking for cheap, under owned MLB DFS players with a high ceiling and Pujols fits the bill. Adam Plutko (4.83 ERA) is on the mound and he has given up 11 home runs in his last six home games this season. You do the math..

Second Base: Jose Altuve ($4,200 FD; $4,600 DK) goes against lefty Marco Gonzalez (.421 ERA) at home tonight. Altuve is on fire recently and bats .423 ISO/.540 wOBA vs lefties on the season. He has one game in his last six where he hasn’t scored double digit FanDuel points. Lock him in as a high floor, high ceiling bat.

Second Base Value: Austin Nola ($2,500 FD; $4,300 DK) is doing a lot with his newfound playing time recently. He bats .333/.489 SLG vs righties this season and the Mariners are starting to take notice. He had a goose egg last night but the two games before that he had three hits in each. At $2,500 I will go back to Nola expecting him to hit value, with potential to bust out. Aaron Sanchez (6.07 ERA) is on the bump in Houston and he absolutely gives it up all the time. Just go take a look at his season long game logs, it’s ugly.

Shortstop Stud: Marcus Semien ($3,400 FD; $4,300 DK) is batting leadoff for a team I like a lot today in the Oakland A’s. They face Dakota Hudson (3.88 ERA) who has given up 10 homers in his last seven appearances. Semien has 14 homers on the season and bats .156 ISO/.358 vs righties. Recently he has been a production machine and is always very low owned. Semien hasn’t put up a zero (in fantasy points) in his last 10 outings. He is going to get his, and no one will be on him.

Shortstop Mid: Jean Segura ($3,600 FD; $4,300 DK) is another Phillie I have my eye on. Hitting .336 ISO/.415 wOBA this season he is the best lefty hitter on his team, this year, if you are just looking at MLB DFS stats. Segura has nine hits in his last five games and a homer is coming soon. If the Phillies can’t take advantage of Detwiler (6.35 ERA) I may not roster them again this season.

Third Base Mid: Renato Nunez($3,200 FD; $4,700 DK) I still like how he is swinging the bat right now and no one ever plays him. In July he hit .304/.576 SLG and has been one of the Orioles key contributors. I don’t mind the bats surrounding him tonight (Mancini, Santander and Villar) either. Contrary to popular belief the Orioles can actually get it going some nights. He has 11 home runs on the season vs lefties and will be hitting vs one tonight. The pitcher Thomas Pannone has 5.98 ERA and has given up 10 runs in his last three starts. It probably won’t help him that Baltimore is a hitter’s park. Back to Nunez I go.

Third Base Value: Matt Thaiss ($2,500 FD; $4,100 DK) is a cheap bat with a lot of pop. He has four home runs in his last seven games. He hits .325 ISO/ .329 wOBA and has recently been contributing virtually every night. He is still very cheap for his skill set and makes a nice punt. The pitcher he faces, Adam Plutko, has given up 15 home runs in his last 10 games.

Third Base Honorable Mention: Matt Chapman

Outfield Stud: Nelson Cruz ($4,400 FD; $5,200 DK) vs. a lefty is really all you need know. He has 10 homers in 75 ABs and bats .440 ISO/.455 wOBA. Danny Duffy (L) is pitching for the Royals tonight and all this guy does is give up multiple run games. He should get an early shower tonight. Play Cruz and the Twins stack.

Outfield MidRange: Franmil Reyes ($2,900 FD; $4,000 DK) is new to Cleveland and still needs to show the Indians first hand why they traded for him. He has slugged 24 home runs this season vs righties with a .301 ISO/.371 wOBA and gets a nice pitching matchup today vs Felix Pena (R). In the entire season, Pena has only made it to six innings twice. Indians will put up some runs here.

Outfield Mid/Value: Phillip Ervin ($2,800 FD; $3,900 DK) has 17 hits in only 32 ABs with two home runs. He goes against the struggling Dallas Keuchel (R) in the hitter friendly SunTrust Park. Keuchel has 10 runs in his last 17 innings which is not what the Braves were hoping for when they acquired him. I don’t necessarily expect a Reds offensive explosion here, but Ervin at his price may be worth a MLB DFS stab. He is hitting .460 ISO/.649 wOBA.

Outfield Honorable Mention: Max Kepler

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny: August 3rd

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

This Saturday August 3rd slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my studs and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

MLB DFS Hitters: Home Run Hunting on the Main Slate

Honorable Mention: Edwin Encarnacion

Third Base Honorable Mention: Matt Chapman

Outfield Honorable Mention: Max Kepler

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For July 28

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This Sunday July 28th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

MLB DFS Bats: Houston Astros and Home Run Hunting

Position Rankings and Values

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Catcher: Travis D’Arnaud ($3,200 FD; $4,300 DK) Travis is batting cleanup vs Aaron Sanchez and his 6.06 ERA. Sanchez gives up multiple run games on the regular. In June he gave up at least FOUR runs in EVERY SINGLE ONE of his starts. To say he is struggling would be an understatement. D’Arnaud is batting .316/.409 OBP/.684 SLG in July and is locked in. I feel comfortable with him continuing his dominant month, especially at $3,200.

Catcher Value: Ryan Lavarnway ($2,400 FD; $4,000 DK) I am just hoping he starts. He is batting a ridiculous .667 ISO/ .628 wOBA (small sample size) vs right handed pitching this season with two home runs in only 12 AB’s. He faces Peter Lambert (5.93 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) who has never once pitched in a MLB game without giving up a run. Lambert is actually averaging over a hit per inning. Yes, half of his starts are at Coors Field’s poor pitching environment however he is still getting hit on the road. Lavarnway is your value Red, and yes I do like as a stack. How could you not vs Lambert?

First Base Stud: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100 FD; $4,400 DK) I like the pitching matchups better for the Gurriel and Abreu (listed below) but Goldy is HOT. Last night he tied the franchise record home run streak. He will no doubt be trying to break it, in his first year as a Cardinal, today. The last sevens days he is batting .338/.385 OBP/.958 SLG with six home runs.

First Base Value Jose Abreu ($3,500 FD; $4,000 DK) is pretty much boom or bust. I see myself paying up at the position but if I am forced to pay down a bit I would play Abreu. He is batting .328 ISO/ .328 wOBA and if he (or Moncada) aren’t hitting than the White Sox don’t have a chance. Opposing pitcher Kyle Gibson is decent, and may even be someone to consider rostering because the overall lack of depth of the Chicago White Sox and his price ($7,200), but he does have a 4.24 ERA and he has given up a home run in every game in July except one. If anyone on the White Sox is going to do it, it’s Abreu or Moncada.

First Base Honorable Mention: Yuli Gurriel ($3,700 FD, $4,500 DK) I expect Astros to put up runs today (See Altuve below) and trying to pick out which of the studs go off on a daily basis is difficult. I would be happy to play him in my Houston stacks.

Second Base: Jose Altuve ($4,100 FD; $4,500 DK) I expect the Houston Astros to tee off on Dakota Hudson. Hudson has given up seven homers in his last six starts and now gets the lethal Astros. I love the Astros stack and if they are scoring, Altuve is contributing. Altuve is batting .349/.379 OBP/.614 SLB in July with a .231 ISO on the season.

Second Base Value: Aledmys Diaz ($2,800 FD) Batting .219 ISO/ .338 wOBA with the Houston platoon advantage. Batting seventh, it helps that I like every single Astro in front of him to help load the bases and beat up on the pitcher.

Shortstop Stud Jorge Polanco ($3,700 FD; $4,900 DK) is batting .242 ISO/.405 wOBA on the season. Last night the Twins got shut down but this lineup is too talented to let that happen twin in a row. Dylan Covey (R) is on the mound, and while I do respect Covey’s strike out ability he carries a 6.04 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. Once the Twins get going, they usually don’t stop. I will go back to their big bats today.

Short Stop Value Carlos Correa ($3,600 FD; $4,300 DK) is back, is hitting (finally) and is priced too low for his skill set. The Astros are going to score vs Dakota Hudson (see Jose Altuve Above) and Correa is batting fifth behind Spinger, Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez with Gurriel hitting behind him. That is going to be a MAJOR issue for Hudson. Correa has a safe floor and upside. I expect him to be priced close to $4,000 in a couple weeks. He is batting .273/.355 OPB/.503 SLG in July.

Third Base Base: Eugenio Suarez ($3,700 FD; $5,300 DK) may have my vote for July MVP. He has 11 home runs and since the beginning of the month and is batting .421 in the last seven days. I believe in hot streaks. I also believe in hitting home runs off of Peter Lambert (see Lavarnway above). Eugenio is my HR lock of the day.

Third Base Value: Tommy Edeman ($2,900 FD; $4,100 DK) is batting lead vs lefty Wade Miley (3.81 ERA). I don’t necessarily love targeting Miley, as he has been much better this year, but the Cardinals prices are making it easier for me to give it a shot. He has a .200 ISO/.303 wOBA vs lefties with one home run in 29 AB’s. At $2,900 I will be happy with double digit fantasy points which a run, RBI and double can do. I believe he hits value but would much rather pay up for Suarez.

Outfield Stud: Nelson Cruz ($4,400 FD; $5,800 DK) put up only three points last night. It hurt. So now what do we do? Should we fade him because we don’t want our hearts broken again? Nope. He is still slugging a ridiculous .414/.484 OBP/.1.241 SLG/1.726 OPS in the last seven days. The opposing arm Dylan Covey does have some strike out capability, sure, but he is not elite. Nelson Cruz is a seasoned vet and can homer off anyone, and I like him to make a hater out of the faders today.

Outfield MidRange: Tommy Pham ($3,800 FD; $4,400 DK) is on a five game hitting streak, batting second and facing Aaron Sanchez. I mentioned earlier (with D’Arnaud) just how prone Sanchez is to giving up runs. Pham can contribute in every scoring category in MLB DFS which is what we want. He hits, steals, scores and of course and get RBI’s. Pham is batting .204 ISO/. 352 wOBA on the season.

Outfield Value: Jose Martinez ($2,600 FD; $3,700 DK) is just as capable of taking Wade Miley deep today as Paul Goldschmidt is and cost significantly less. I don’t know that I am stacking Cardinals but I like them as one offs or mini stacks. He is batting .345 ISO/ 472 wOBA vs lefties this season with five home runs in 55 AB’s. Martinez has six hits in the last five games and at $2,600 a couple hits will suffice, but the upside for an 18 point home run is great.

Notes: I love all of the Houston Astro Outfielders but they are ALL $4,000 or higher on FanDuel. I could have easily wrote them up but it would be very difficult to get them all on one team.

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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