MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 4/17 (FanDuel Main Slate)

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We’ve got some live arms and potent bats in this edition of Aces and Bases focusing ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET.

There are no bad weather issues but a possible COVID outbreak on the Houston Astros means we have to stay vigilant on news and have pivots at the ready!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,900)

Kershaw is the highest-priced arm and the likely chalk, but I’d venture to say that Darvish has more contrarian upside in a home matchup against a team that’s not known for swing-and-misses, but doesn’t have a lot of experience facing Darvish. The Japanese marvel is notoriously tricky to solve and seemed at ease in his last two starts — and while Kershaw might be the preferred option in cash games, I’ll take the cheaper San Diego RHP in GPPs for some leverage on the field, since only a small percentage of DFS gamers will use pitchers against the “Boys in Blue.”

Best Value: Dane Dunning ($8,000)

I’m a little concerned about getting six innings from Dunning, and that seems to be where he’d max out at his current pitch count progression, but he’ striking out more than a batter per inning in three major league starts and the command for this 26-year-old RHP. He throws a nasty sinker that complements his four-seamer and mixes in a decent slider and occasional use of a change and curveball. The Orioles strike out at the second-highest clip in the majors this season and Dunning could offer the cheapest path to 8+ Ks and a quality start.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (RHP Chris Flexen)

The Astros have the fourth-highest team xOBA in baseball (.342) and shouldn’t have much trouble against the eminently hittable Chris Flexen. I’m most interested in some combination of the 2-6 hitters here, which could include Aledmys Diaz ($2,600), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Yuri Gurriel ($2,800), Kyle Tucker ($3,500) and Carlos Correa ($3,000). The prices are discounted a bit on these guys without Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman — who all hit the injured listed for undisclosed reasons, prompting rumors of a possible COVID outbreak. Stay tuned since there could be some news of a postponement or more players hitting that list.

Value/Contrarian Stack: Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (Jose Quintana)

So far this season, Jose Quintana has had a very difficult time retiring the 27 RH batters he’s faced, and he’s clearly on the downside of his career when those splits tend to become a little more exaggerated. The Twins are loaded with relatively inexpensive powerful righty hitters like Nelson Cruz ($3,800), Josh Donaldson ($3,000), Mitch Garver ($2,400) and Miguel Sano ($2,800). I was on them last night and they didn’t deliver against Andrew Heaney — a solid pitcher in his own right — but I’m going right back to the well. Cruz alone sports an obscene .570 wOBA and .440 ISO vs. LHP over his last 63 games, and Donaldson, Garver and Kyle Garlick ($2,200) all mash against LHP.

EDIT: The Twins-Angels game has been postponed, so remove any players associated with that game ASAP.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Trevor Cahill)

It’s not one of those slates where you need to deploy a very inexpensive secondary value stack, but the Brewers strike me as a classic boom-or-bust GPP stack you might want to mix into a few large, low-cost tournaments for their upside and potent lefty bats, including Travis Shaw ($2,900), Omar Narvaez ($2,700) and Christian Yelich ($4,100), who’s missed four straight with a back injury but is still considered DTD. If he can’t go, Billy McKinney ($2,000) could get the start, as both he and Jackie Bradley ($2,400) have been used to spell Yelich. Also keep an eye on Daniel Vogelbach at just $2,100. If you’re looking to run a Pirtes hitter back against the group, I’d prefer 3B Phillip Evans, who’s been raking against LHP this season and hits out of the 4 slot.

Good luck!