We’ve got some live arms and potent bats in this edition of Aces and Bases focusing ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET.
There are no bad weather issues but a possible COVID outbreak on the Houston Astros means we have to stay vigilant on news and have pivots at the ready!
Kershaw is the highest-priced arm and the likely chalk, but I’d venture to say that Darvish has more contrarian upside in a home matchup against a team that’s not known for swing-and-misses, but doesn’t have a lot of experience facing Darvish. The Japanese marvel is notoriously tricky to solve and seemed at ease in his last two starts — and while Kershaw might be the preferred option in cash games, I’ll take the cheaper San Diego RHP in GPPs for some leverage on the field, since only a small percentage of DFS gamers will use pitchers against the “Boys in Blue.”
I’m a little concerned about getting six innings from Dunning, and that seems to be where he’d max out at his current pitch count progression, but he’ striking out more than a batter per inning in three major league starts and the command for this 26-year-old RHP. He throws a nasty sinker that complements his four-seamer and mixes in a decent slider and occasional use of a change and curveball. The Orioles strike out at the second-highest clip in the majors this season and Dunning could offer the cheapest path to 8+ Ks and a quality start.
The Astros have the fourth-highest team xOBA in baseball (.342) and shouldn’t have much trouble against the eminently hittable Chris Flexen. I’m most interested in some combination of the 2-6 hitters here, which could include Aledmys Diaz ($2,600), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Yuri Gurriel ($2,800), Kyle Tucker ($3,500) and Carlos Correa ($3,000). The prices are discounted a bit on these guys without Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman — who all hit the injured listed for undisclosed reasons, prompting rumors of a possible COVID outbreak. Stay tuned since there could be some news of a postponement or more players hitting that list.
So far this season, Jose Quintana has had a very difficult time retiring the 27 RH batters he’s faced, and he’s clearly on the downside of his career when those splits tend to become a little more exaggerated. The Twins are loaded with relatively inexpensive powerful righty hitters like Nelson Cruz ($3,800), Josh Donaldson ($3,000), Mitch Garver ($2,400) and Miguel Sano ($2,800). I was on them last night and they didn’t deliver against Andrew Heaney — a solid pitcher in his own right — but I’m going right back to the well. Cruz alone sports an obscene .570 wOBA and .440 ISO vs. LHP over his last 63 games, and Donaldson, Garver and Kyle Garlick ($2,200) all mash against LHP.
EDIT: The Twins-Angels game has been postponed, so remove any players associated with that game ASAP.
It’s not one of those slates where you need to deploy a very inexpensive secondary value stack, but the Brewers strike me as a classic boom-or-bust GPP stack you might want to mix into a few large, low-cost tournaments for their upside and potent lefty bats, including Travis Shaw ($2,900), Omar Narvaez ($2,700) and Christian Yelich ($4,100), who’s missed four straight with a back injury but is still considered DTD. If he can’t go, Billy McKinney ($2,000) could get the start, as both he and Jackie Bradley ($2,400) have been used to spell Yelich. Also keep an eye on Daniel Vogelbach at just $2,100. If you’re looking to run a Pirtes hitter back against the group, I’d prefer 3B Phillip Evans, who’s been raking against LHP this season and hits out of the 4 slot.
Good luck!
I’ve got five hitters for you to consider for the early 7/26 MLB DFS 11-game slate in DK GPPs, where it pays to be fearless and swing for the fences!
The Rangers offense has been a bit slow out of the gate, but RHBsin that lineup have a favorable matchup vs. LHP Kyle Freeland. One fearless leftymasher who comes at a considerable discount is Chirinos – an ample power sourceat catcher and a guy who often flies under the radar in DFS. If you’re notpaying up for J.T. Realmuto (DK $4,800), Mitch Garver ($4,900) or ChristianVazquez (DK $4,300), Chirinos makes sense as part of a stack or as a one-off tosave a few bucks and get similar upside. *Note: Chirinos battled an ankleinjury near the close of camp and sat out Saturday but looks to be good to gofor today.
Speaking of discounts, Votto is a relatively inexpensive veteran slugger off to an uncharacteristically hot start, with a couple HRs in his first two games. I’m intrigued by the Reds stack against eminently hittable Spencer Turnbull, who’s been known to issue the occasional free pass and give up the long ball. Spend-up options include Anthony Rizzo (DK $5,000) and one-off Josh Bell (DK $4,900), and the punt-worthy Michael Chavis (DK $2,900) is available at both 1B and 2B – but I’m putting about half my GPP eggs in the Votto basket on the early slate.
Thankfully, Bregman is available at both SS and 3B on DK, where there’s a few other guys I’d like to play at the hot corner. The Astros have the second-highest projected total after the Red Sox, and it’s a GPP priority to lock in Bregman and his eye-popping .417 career wOBA vs. LHP against Yusei Kikuchi, a southpaw with a home run problem. Xander Bogaerts (DK $4,600) got the day off Saturday but returns to the BoSox lineup this afternoon, so he’s a viable option as pivot from Bregman, in Boston stacks or alongside Bregman if you plug the latter in at 3B. Red-hot Didi Gregorius (DK $3,500) sticks out as a value option for the Phillies.
I’d like to play both Reds 3B Eugenio Suarez (DK $4,500) and Moustakas on DK, but you have to take your pick since each player is limited to a singular position at the hot corner. While Suarez might see lower ownership, we can probably get our variance elsewhere, as the man who sounds like a delicious Mediterranean casserole comes in with the highest daily simulated projections in the Cincy lineup. He’s the anchor of a 1-2-4-5-6 Reds stack that won’t cost you a bundle, and his upside is similar to more expensive options like Josh Donaldson (DK $4,200) and Rafael Devers (DK $5,200).
I’m on board with using potent Reds leadoff hitter Jesse Winker (DK $3,500) and value option Shogo Akiyama (DK $2,000) – easy-to-fit stack components who could make or break the slate – but my favorite spend-up at OF on DK is Yelich, who annihilated RHPs to the tune of a .473 wOBA and 195 wRC+ in 2019. The Brewers star went 1-for-5 with a dinger in yesterday’s game and we could see the wind blowing out in Wrigley this afternoon. I’m also interested in seeing Joey Gallo (DK $4,300) solve the new roofed park in Texas, so I’ll be mixing in shares of him as well. Yelich is expensive, but my first few builds include him and all of the aforementioned players with Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco at my pitching spots – two of the highest projected starters in the slate.
ANOTHER NOTE: It’s also my 45th birthday today, so taking down one of the big GPPs on DraftKings would be the ultimate present! Good luck… and be fearless!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @LouisLipps and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
Image of Christian Yelich courtesy of Erik Drost.
A flashback at some of the best performances from the Thursday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/20 MLB DFS and Betting review and look ahead.
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Here is a Tuesday snippet from our Pitcher Projection Model, that is accessible to all Premium Gold members. Masahiro Tanaka had an incredible outing for the price tag. Going up against the Los Angeles Angels at Yankee Stadium, Tanaka went seven innings while allowing a run on four hits and racked up six strikeouts while picking up his 11th victory of the year.
Outlook for the rest of the season: It seems as if Tanaka saves himself for the stretch run each and every season. While his season numbers are not eye-opening, he has pitched extremely well at Yankee Stadium in 2019, going 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA. Expect Tanaka to be featured in whatever the Yankees decide to do with their rotation and be a big factor in the playoffs.
As Antonio D’Arcangelis stated above in the DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks, LeMahieu had a solid day at the plate against the Los Angeles Angels in a game where the Yankees clinched the A.L. East. He ended up 1-for-4 with a three-run home run on the day.
Outlook for the rest of the season: D.J. LeMahieu is playing better than most people expected in his first year outside of Coors Field. He is now at 25 home runs and 97 RBI predominantly as the leadoff hitter for the Yankees. Expect him to remain in the A.L. batting title race down to the final days of the season and eclipse the 100 RBI mark.
As Jason selected him as a value catcher / first baseman on the MLB Cheatsheet, which is available to all Premium Gold members, Mitch Garver had a solid day at the plate against the Kansas City Royals. Garver went 2-for-3 with a home run, RBI, three runs scored and a pair of walks from the leadoff spot.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Another player on a division leader who is predominantly a leadoff hitter appearing on today’s list. In a little under 300 at-bats this season , Garver is at 31 home runs on the season. He has incredible production, only matched by Gary Sanchez from the catcher position. Expect Garver to continue slugging as the season winds down.
Here is a screenshot from our Hitter Projection Model of players around the same value as Shed Long. He led off for the Seattle Mariners yesterday against the Pittsburgh Pirates in an interleague matchup and had a solid day at the plate. He went 3-for-5 with a walk, two RBI and the game-winning run.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Shed Long has a little over 100 at-bats in the Majors and does not look overmatched, which is great for him down the line. He has good speed and can hit for average while being able to play multiple positions on the field. Expect Long to work on the power side of his swing with the baseball being juiced and hitting into the gaps to utilize his speed.
We’ve got a split slate for 9/19 DFS: DraftKings has a six-game slate that starts at 6:35, while FanDuel is excluding the Angels-Yankees again and starting a four-gamer at 7:05. We’re focusing on three stacks and just a couple contrarian builds, as well as our usual buffet of hitters at every position. Let’s get rolling, because the Yanks and Twins will get you wins!
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The Twins were a total dud on Wednesday night against the fullWhite Sox bullpen, scoring just one run on three hits across nine boringinnings. Today is a great day for a rebound, as the Royals left-hander can beexposed by hitters from both sides of the plate. Montgomery has been a reversesplits pitcher this season, yielding an amusing .443/.464/.709 slash toopposing LHBs. Over the course of his whole career, the disparity isn’t as noticeable.I like all the Twins here, since they brutalize lefties (.287/.353/.523 slash,.363 wOBA and a 127 wRC+) and will be starting my stacks with Eddie Rosario,Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver (who’s an insane $5,600 on DK). Add in Miguel Sanoor C.J. Cron on FD and Jorge Polanco on DK.
I was little concerned about the Yankees rolling out an unorthodoxlineup with the division clinched, but Tampa came back and beat the Dodgers! They’llbe hungry for their 100th win of the season and thirsty forchampagne on their home turf, but they’ll be facing a left-hander who’s pitchedquite well in 2019. Their salaries are a little low because of the matchup, butHeaney isn’t enough to keep me off them. I’ll be using a lot of Mike Clevinger withMasahiro Tanaka/Kyle Gibson/Drew Verhagen, so there will be plenty of combosthat will allow me to stack D.J. LeMahieu ($4,600), Gleyber Torres ($4,700), AaronJudge ($4,500), Gio Urshela ($4,300) and Luke Voit ($4,400) though I’ll only begrabbing a few shares of Giancarlo Stanton at his outrageous price ($5,400)
I said Tuesday the Blue Jays would be a sneaky stack, and CavanBiggio responded by hitting for the cycle. They’re not as sneaky this timearound, since they battled with Baltimore last night as the teams combined for21 runs. Ynoa is 1-8 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and he’s given up 25 homeruns in just 100.1 IP. All the usual suspects make sense here, with the 1-5hitters as the priority bats.
Cleveland Indians vs. Daniel Norris/Drew VerHagen
St. Louis Cardinals at Kyle Hendricks (contrarian)
Pay $2,000 more for Mitch Garver on DK if you want, but if youwant some cheap exposure to the Yankees, blend Romine into your Yankees stacks.He’s slashing .281/.312/.438 this season and sports an impressive .172 ISO vs.LHPsthis season. Romine isn’t the most exciting option, but we need to save a littleit of salary somewhere, and if we’re not paying way up or Garver, Romine makessense.
Since Tellez sat on Tuesday and ruined all my work recommendinghim, I’ll bring you up to speed: Rowdy scored three runs on Wednesday and isstill destroying right-handed pitching (.209 ISO this season). It’s usuallyeither him or Justin Smoak in the lineup, and I like them both in Baltimore’sbandbox. Smoak boasts a .231 ISO vs. RHPs in 2019.
Biggio hit for the cycle on Tuesday and is the one Jays bat I wantin all my GPP lineups. I touted is speed and power abilities and he respondedby doing what five-tool platers do – mashing and slashing. Biggio is 14-for-29 overhis last seven games with 133 DK points over that span (19 FPPG). And his .112wRC+ this season is in the top 10 among 2B.
LeMahieu is having an MVP-caliber season for the Yankeeswith a wRC+ of 136 and a torrid slash line of .329/.378/.515. He’s ben their steadiestplayer and has flashed impressive power (.186 ISO) against both LHPs and RHPs. His.402 wOBA and 154 wRC+ in Yankee Stadium is tops on the team, and he’ll be inmost of my lineups tonight.
Lindor was a complete disappointment Tuesday, so I’ll be goingback to him in about 2/10 lineups, but the rest of them will have shares of Torresat SS or 2B, where he’s also eligible. Torres has a .255 ISO, .353 OBP, .369wOBA and 132 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019, and he’s now hitting in the heart of the Yankeeslineup.
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You can’t keep a great hitter down for long, and Rosario(.281/.313/.453 slash vs. LHPs in 2019) is a solid GPP play because he’ll onlybe in about half of the Twins stacks because he’s a lefty bat against a southpaw– a great opportunity against a guy like Montgomery. The Royals starter mightget pulled for a righty after he gets lit up by these Twins, and then your shortsightedDFS opponents will be kicking themselves for not having more exposure to Rosario’s.378 xwOBA against RHPs since 2018.
It’s hard to believe this price on Judge, who went deep again onWednesday, but it’s something I’ll be taking advantage of in cash games andGPPS alike. Judge brutalizes lefties, with a .461 wOBA in 120 PA this season,including .347/.467/.663 slash and 8 homers. He hits the ball as hard as anyonewho’s ever played the game, as he sits in the 100th percentile forExit Velocity and Hard Hit %. Get him in there – he’s primed for a monster day.
Ozuna has been relatively quiet lately, so he’s really cheap. Healso has .382 xwOBA this year and has been a much better road hitter this seasonwith a .262/.336/.519 slash and 15 of his 28 HRs in away games. Ozuna also ranksin the 93th percentile for Exit Velocity and 98th percentile forHard Hit % — and makes for a nice contrarian play vs. a capable hurler in Kyle Hendricks.
C: Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD), Mitch Garver ($5,600 DK,$3,000 FD)
1B: Carlos Santana ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD), C.J. Cron ($3,900 DK, $2,800FD)
3B: Gio Urshela ($4,300 DK) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($4,100 DK,$2,900 FD)
2B: Jonathan Villar ($4,800 DK, $3,600 FD), Luis Arraez ($4,200DK, $2,700 FD)
SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Jorge Polance ($4,800 DK, $3,300FD)
OF: Whit Merrifield ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD), Anthony Santander ($3,900 DK, $3,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,300 DK), Randal Grichuk ($4,500 DK, $3,000 FD), Dexter Fowler ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD)
To type the numbers 9/11 still causes waves of emotions 18 years after our nation endured one of the darkest days in its history.
I can still shut my eyes and remember how the day went for me in the Satellite Operations office of Fox Sports Net and how a long day of gut-wrenching emotions and visuals that still haunt me culminated in my sitting on the floor of my living room crying uncontrollably at 11:30 pm as the National Anthem was played in the backdrop of the names that were confirmed dead.
Obviously, choosing a winning DFS lineup is secondary to the importance of this date. At the same time, the heroism displayed on that warm Tuesday morning in New York City, Washington D.C. and over the skies of Pennsylvania is a strong reminder of how, as Americans, we persist.
Play Ball, and let’s chase the long green.
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Garver capped his breakout season with his 30th home run of the season in Tuesday’s win over the Nationals. He now has four dingers in his last three games to go along with seven RBI. He’ll enter the day with a 30.5% HR/FB rate and even against Stephen Strasburg, I’d take Garver and his 46.2% hard contact rate. With a 47.7% fly ball rate and a start to September that has seen Garver’s OPS climb above 1.700, he’s a good 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks play behind the plate (although he’ll likely serve as the DH).
Like Garver, Olson reached the 30-HR barrier on Tuesday, serving as the ring leader of the A’s 21-7 payback to the Astros. Olson swatted a pair of homers, drove in four runs and scored three times to pace what was a 25-hit assault. He’s been locked in of late, having recorded hits in nine of his last 11 games that includes five homers. As hard as Garver has hit the ball, Olson has been more pronounced with his swing, delivering hard contact at a 51.2% rate. You have to like the fact Olson is getting line drives at a solid rate (24.7%) while also driving the ball consistently (43.2% fly ball rate). Chances are good he’ll be facing a taxed Astros pitching staff, making him an even stronger option.
One game after having a run of at least 21.20 FanDuel points in four of his previous five games, Marte got back on track with a pair of hits on Tuesday. Even with an 0-for-4 on Monday, Marte is hitting .481 (13-for-27) in his last eight games with three homers and 10 RBI. Although he hasn’t hit the Mets well this season, two of his seven hits resulted in slow trots around the bases. Good things indeed do happen when your Isolated Power improves by 90 points (.177 last season, .267 this year). Marte has nearly doubled his HR/FB%, standing currently at 20.4% after a 10.9% output in 2018. His .340 BABIP is yet another reason why he’s a solid 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks member.
With D.J. LeMahieu getting Tuesday off, Torres filled the leadoff role. He proceeded to show why he costs a grip at DraftKings by leading off with his 36th homer of the season, helping to give him his fourth of double-digit scoring at FanDuel in his last five games. Torres has a “modest” .815 OPS against lefties (the Tigers will start southpaw Matthew Boyd tonight) yet his road OPS hovers near .950. He has an OPS over 1.200 over the past week and should be able to maintain his 42% fly ball rate.
Dozier has multi-hit games in five of his last seven outings and has hit the White Sox well this season. In 48 at-bats against the Pale Hose, Dozier has a .354 batting average with three homers and nine RBI. The ability to draw walks has been a factor in Dozier’s 2019, as he sports a 10.3% walk rate along with elevating his BABIP from .296 last season to .342 this year. His 44.1% fly ball rate plays well in hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Park, even against a red-hot hurler like Reynaldo Lopez, who gets the nod for Chicago tonight.
With four homers in his last six games, Meadows is putting the Rays on his young back and carrying them closer to the AL Wild Card with each swing. Tuesday marked the sixth time in the last nine games Meadows have produced at least 20 FanDuel points and is on a September tear that has him hitting .536 with eight of his 15 hits going for extra bases. The line drives Meadows hit in the minors are now becoming homers, evidenced by his 18.7% HR/FB rate. If the Rays peg him in the #2 spot, Meadows is a very strong 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks play, as his OPS is at 1.400 when hitting second.
A three-hit effort on Tuesday continued Acuna’s success against Phillies pitching this season, as he is now at .357 with three homers, 10 RBI and 18 runs scored against them. Acuna smokes the ball at a 44.8% hard contact rate, but he’s becoming a complete hitter. He’s reduced his pull rate and is more of an all-fields hitter who is at 24.8% in HR/FB rate despite hitting fly balls 37.7% of the time. Philadelphia pitcher Zach Eflin has been an easy mark for Braves hitters this season, allowing 12 earned runs in 5.2 innings, so count on Acuna to help the Atlanta bats as extended batting practice against Eflin.
Myers is looking to finish the season strong, stretching his hitting streak to 10 games on Tuesday night. Myers has added 21 points to his batting average since August 30 and is a bargain play at FanDuel. Keep that in mind as he has also been a solid hitter against lefties, producing an .898 OPS despite a .233 batting average. The recent run has helped boost his walk rate to 10.2% along with one of the few times this season Myers’ 48.3% hard contact rate is being put to good use.
9/11 Hitting Stack of the Day: Oakland A’s: The Astros will go with righty Jose Urquidy, so stack the Oakland lefty bats starting with Olson. Seth Brown ($3400 FanDuel) should be in the lineup as well. Jurickson Profar ($3900 DraftKings) is a solid stack option, but also keep righty bats Khris Davis (a cheap $2700 at FD) and Marcus Semien ($4600 DK) as options.
9/11 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Atlanta Braves: As previously mentioned, the Braves have hammered Eflin. Acuna is a lock, but Dansby Swanson ($2800 FD) is a value play. Brian McCann ($3500 DK)gets a favorable lefty/righty matchup as well. You have to like Josh Donaldson ($5100 DK) and Ozzie Albies ($3300 FD) among the buffet table of options.
9/11 Hitting Stack to Consider: Tampa Bay Rays: Texas starter Ariel Jurado has a 6.93 ERA in his last 10 appearances while hitters have teed off on him at a .320 clip and 1.60 WHIP. Meadows is front and center in a stack, with Avisail Garcia ($4300 DK) is a good 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks sleeper.
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A surprisingly light Wednesday awaits, as the 9/4 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks will focus on the eight games that comprise the main slate (five games) and the late schedule (three).
The emphasis will be on those playing the full evening slate, one that lacks elite pitching outside of Shane Bieber of the Indians and Hyun-Jin Ryu of the Dodgers.
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Garver (jaw) missed Tuesday’s game, but is a likely go tonight. There’s good reason why he’s expense at DraftKings, as Garver has produced a 1.248 OPS over the past two weeks with three homers, eight runs scored and five RBI. Like most of (with apologies to Ole and Arn Anderson) the Minnesota Wrecking Crew, Garver has a monster Isolated Power total (.345), but he’s at his most dangerous on the road, where Garver has a 1.023 OPS with 15 homers and 35 RBI. You have to also love the combination of his 47.2% fly ball rate and 46.1% hard contact rate, which is why Garver’s a heck of a play.
Reds starter Trevor Bauer, he of the 8.40 ERA since arriving in Cincinnati, must face Hoskins, whose bat has come alive at just the right time for the Phillies. Hoskins hit just .161 for the month of August, but he’s hammered pitchers to a 1.015 OPS over the past two weeks and opened September with a pair of homers on Labor Day. With a 17.4% walk rate, Hoskins doesn’t need to go deep to touch base. Like the aforementioned Garver, Hoskins has a (very) strong fly ball rate at 51.5% to go along with a 45% hard contact rate, two very good traits to have at Great American Ball Park.
Merrifield has a homer in the three previous times he’s faced Tigers hurler Edwin Jackson. While becoming less of a baserunner, Merrifield’s Isolated Power (.172) took a 34-point jump from 2018 along with a sharp increase in HR/FB% (10.3%). Merrifield had three hits on Tuesday night, and stands to imagine he should be a good 9/4 DFS Hitting Picks member considering he’s going against Tigers pitching.
The leg tightness that has kept Newman’s blistering bat on the bench the past two games should be a thing of the past. Newman has five multi-hit games in his last seven starts and was hitting .588/.611/1.176 (1.787 OPS) with three homers over the past week. Where the power he didn’t display in the minors came from is beyond me, but Newman’s 60.9% medium contact rate from last season graduated to 51.1% due in part to an increased 27.8% hard contact rate. Aristides Aquino he’s not, but you’ll take Newman picking up where he left off.
No matter how good a pitcher is, there’s always a batter who has his number. In what feels like a 2019 edition of Major League II, Moncada is Jack Parkman to Biber’s Ricky Vaughn, having recorded five hits in nine career at-bats against the Indians ace with a pair of solo homers and a 1.933 OPS. Perhaps this is what Moncada needs. After all, he’s hitting .182 over the past two weeks, but five of those eight hits are for extra bases (three doubles, two homers). For those of the risky nature, this matchup is sneaky good.
Hmmm…a Royals stack (later)? Soler OWNS Detroit to the point where he could run for mayor in the D. Soler has gone .444/.500/1.000 (1.500 OPS) with nine homers among the 17 extra base hits he’s racked up against the Tigers. Oh, yeah: he’s scored 28 runs and driven 25. It’s at this point where I don’t have to give you hard contact rate percentage or fly ball frequency. Of the 9/4 DFS Hitting Picks, Soler is the one bat you must have in your lineup.
That picturesque stroke is starting to gain traction, evidenced by a .414 batting average and 1.088 OPS over the past week. Jimenez has a pair of homers in the same span, and why the lack of plate discipline continues to disappoint, the 36.9% hard contact rate continues to rise and offer reason for a strong September. Oddly enough, he’s done well against Cleveland this season, hitting .375/.394/.656 with a pair of dingers among his 12 hits. He’s a cheap play that’s worth adding to the lineup. Few will be bold to take him against Shane Bieber, but I would.
For all of his historic power display, the most impressive thing about Aquino has been his patience at the plate. Over the past two weeks, Aquino has a .361 OBP. His 7.1% walk rate is a sign that he’s realizing he doesn’t have to chase everything while waiting for the right pitch to wallop into the nether reaches of Great American Ball Park. Aquino is still doing damage despite the fact his hard contact rate has dipped to 36.5%. That’s cool, since his HR/BB% remains a devastating 37.5%. He’s becoming an advanced enough hitter to where it’s OK to slot him in the lineup, even against Aaron Nola.
9/4 Hitting Stack of the Day: Kansas City Royals: Both Merrifield and Soler have gone deep against Jackson. Hunter Dozier ($4,600 DK) has a homer and four RBI in his last three games. Aldalberto Mondesi ($3,700 FD) has four hits and three runs in his first two games off an extended DL stop. Crazy as it sounds, loading up on Royals could lead to the long green.
9/4 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Philadelphia Phillies: Start with Hoskins and consider adding Bryce Harper ($5,300 DK), who has seven runs scored and seven RBI to go along with a pair of homers over the past week. J.T. Realmuto ($3,600) is a solid play, and Corey Dickerson ($4,700) has the edge in a lefty-righty matchup against the slumping Trevor Bauer.
8/30 Hitting Stack to Consider: New York Yankees: The Yankees are playing in an early slate, but if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that it’s Rangers ace Lance Lynn on the mound. Lynn is more effective outside of Texas with a 111-27 K:BB rate in 88 innings on the road. The Yankees options are familiar, but this has Buyer Beware written all over it.
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Here we are, it’s Labor Day. While most of you were still sleeping, I was sitting here spinning records, and poring over the 9/2 MLB DFS Pitching Picks. One of the things I love about having a Monday holiday is a bevy of MLB games to watch.
On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate we are starting a new format, besides giving you my top pitching picks to play, I will also be giving you some top pitching picks to attack. This all part of our continuing effort to bring you the highest quality analysis in the industry. Speaking of quality analysis, if you did not already know we now have a show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio on Saturday nights from 11 pm to 1 am EST. Make sure you tune in. So, without further delay, I bring you today’s top plays.
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On theDefense
JakeOdorizzi vs. Detroit Tigers
$9,700 FD / $10,500 DK
The Detroit Tigers are a prime team to attack on any given day, and this 9/2 MLB DFS slate is no different. They are striking out 27.3 percent of the time (1st in MLB) with a .292 wOBA versus RHPs this season. Meanwhile, Odorizzi has been steady mobbin’ to the tune of RHBs, hitting a whopping .187 off him this season. With the Tigers being extremely right-handed heavy, Jake not from State Farm should dominant this Little League lineup today.
NoahSyndergaard vs Washington Nationals
$9,000 FD / $10,000 DK
In GPP play on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, even facing a teamthat mashes RHPs like the Nationals, I would seriously consider using Thor. Eventhough the Nats have ugly numbers versus opposing pitchers this season, they donot versus Syndergaard. Over three starts versus Washington this season Thorhas 18 strikeouts over 21 innings with eight earned runs, four of them comingin his first start back in late March. With Syndergaard having a road ERA of 3.49versus his 4.73 ERA at home, everything appears to be a go for him today.
MasahiroTanaka vs. Texas Rangers
$8,000 FD / $8,100 DK
Tanaka, much like Julio Teheran of years past, is much more dominant at home. So far this season he is posting a 3.26 home ERA as opposed to his 5.93 ERA on the road. The Rangers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low wRC+ of 86, while batting a pathetic .202 over the last seven. Despite Masahiro’s ups and downs as of late, in his last start facing Seattle he sent seven to the dugout mad while pitching a seven-inning shutout. On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate Tanaka is one of my favorite plays for the price.
Joe Rossvs. New York Mets
$6.800 FD / $6,600 DK
For the record on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate I prefer this play a lot more on DK over FD. Although the price is still nice on FD, I think the value is better served in the SP2 slot on DK. The Mets can be very dangerous to attack in MLB DFS versus RHPs, they are in the middle of the pack striking out 20 percent of the time with a .319 wOBA. But Ross has looked too good as of late to pass up here. Over his last five starts spanning a little more than 25 innings, he has only allowed three earned runs while striking out 16 batters. My biggest concern is innings here, as he does have a few starts in that span where he failed to reach the five-inning mark.
On theAttack
Drew Smylyvs. Cincinnati Reds
For fantasy owners Drew Smyly has done anything but make you smile. Over his last five starts he has allowed 20 earned runs over his last 26 innings, making the Reds a prime stack on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate. Cincinnati has some powerful RHBs, and is posting a .328 wOBA versus LHPs, Smyly is in serious trouble today in the Great American Small Park.
Notable Bats
Aristides Aquino has a .578 wOBA and 261 wRC+ versusLHPs with four straight games without a HR.
Phillip Ervin has .488 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPswhile batting .333 with two home runs over the last seven days. He also hasfound his way into the three spot.
Eugenio Suarez has .423 wOBA and 160 wRC+ versus LHPs and has seven home runs over his last nine games. He did leave yesterday’s second game of the doubleheader with a hand injury so keep your eyes peeled here.
JordanZimmerman vs. Minnesota Twins
The McRib, Roller skates, and Sandy Koufax are three thingsthat all had to come to an end. Much like Jordan Zimmerman’s good starts as oflate. Although he has three starts in a row allowing two earned runs or less,the last time he faced Minnesota they bombed him for five runs over threeinnings sending the Zim home in dismay. I see serious regression here today andwill stack against this geriatric pitcher on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate facing a Twinsteam posting a .345 wOBA versus RHPs.
Notable Bats
Nelson Cruz is crushing everyone and RHPs are notdifferent. He is posting .411 wOBA and wRC+ of 158 versus RHPs this season.
Mitch Garver currently has a .396 wOBA versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 147. Over the last seven days he is also batting .455 with three home runs.
Luis Arraez, if he gets the start today, which I believe he will, has a .374 wOBA versus RHPs with a complimentary 133 wRC+. With bigger bats, and $4,000 price tag on DK, you can get him at a low ownership today for sure.
Mike Minorvs. New York Yankees
The New York Yankees hit home runs like I eat Beyond Burgers, pretty much every day. I know this, does Mike Minor? If not, he will soon enough. The Yankees are crushing lefties to the tune of .360 wOBA this season with a wRC+ of 121, both which are 4th in MLB. The magic number is 55, remember that number on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, it is how many dingers the Yanks have launched this season versus lefties. With Minor allowing 10 earned runs in his last 12 1/3 innings, I suspect the number will be much higher tomorrow. Keep in mind that Minor has reverse splits, so do not be afraid to go lefty on lefty here in GPPs.
Notable Bats
D.J. LeMahieu is posting .476 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPs this season. Despite the horrible BVP versus Minor I would still rank him at the top batting .400 with two home runs over the last seven days.
Aaron Judge has returned to pass judgement with his .470 wOBA versus LHPs. He is batting .375 with three home runs over the last seven days and I fully see him putting one out today.
Luke Voit has posted a .354 wOBA this season along with a wRC+ of 120 versus LHPs. I like the pricing for him on both sites today and will have a lot of exposure to him. If Mike Ford somehow draws the start, that will certainly be my pivot.
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
With the Tigers striking out 27.2 percent of the time versus RHPs, and Odorizzi striking out six batters or more in four out of his last five starts the over here seems to easy.
Zimmerman more-than-likely will not see enough innings after the Twins bats get a hold of him today, so the under here is where I am looking.
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This Saturday August 17th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.
Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.
Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.
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Catcher: Wellington Castillo ($2,600 FD) gets to hit against lefty Jose Suarez tonight in L.A. Castillo has two homers in 59 at bats vs southpaws and hits .220 ISO/ .322 wOBA. He should be batting fifth vs. a pitcher I am not afraid to target. Suarez has a 6.57 ERA and has given up four homers in his last eight innings. We are going to need some extra MLB DFS salary to pay up for bats tonight and Castillo provides the relief.
Catcher: Dom Nunez ($3,000 FD) it’s a long shot but if Nunez plays you can roster him. Hitting in Coors vs. my top pitcher to target against, Hector Noesi (7.11 ERA). Nunez has played in only one MLB game this season, but he homered. In 213 ABs he did it 14 times in the minors.
Honorable Mention: Mitch Garver/Jason Castro
First Base: Albert Pujols ($3,300 FD) Tonight we target the Hectors in MLB DFS. Hector Santiago was used to coming out of the bullpen and only pitching an inning or two. Last start the White Sox tried to stretch him out and he got lit up for four earned runs in 4.2 innings. He has a 7.11 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. The Angels may sneak under the radar tonight. Pujols tends to come alive on weekends, especially at home. So far this season Pujols has nine homers vs. lefties and hits .248 ISO/ .343 wOBA.
First Base: C.J. Cron ($3,200 FD) faces yet another home run prone pitcher in Ariel Jurado in a very hot Globe Life Park. Cron has been cold lately but he has the power and it just takes one swing. The Twins are in a great spot tonight and Cron will have the opportunity to help clear the bases. He has 10 home runs on the season vs righties and I think he makes it 11 by this time tomorrow. He is hitting .188 ISO/.288 wOBA.
Honorable Mentions: Jose Abreu, Daniel Murphy
Second Base: Ryan Goins ($2,400 FD) also gets to face Jose Suarez tonight (6.57 ERA). Goins has two homers in 28 ABs against lefties with a .286 ISO/ .470 wOBA. He is cheap, will be low owned and Suarez is vulnerable. Sounds like a good MLB DFS combination to me.
Second Base Value: Scooter Gennett ($2,500 FD) This is a salary saver play. Gennett looks to be getting comfortable at the plate again. He is batting fifth on a Giants team that should bomb Taylor Clarke (5.46 ERA) who almost has given up a homer in every game he has pitched in this year, sometimes more.
Honorable mentions: Luis Arraez, Ryan McMahon
Third Base Base: Nolan Arenado ($4,500 FD) Play the Rockies today. They are going to destroy Hector Noesi at home. In a small sample size Noesi has a 8.18 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He has good strikeout stuff but that’s fine. He is going to give up plenty of runs to erase that, then we get the Marlins BP. Arenado has 19 homers vs righties and hits .235 ISO/. 367 wOBA.
Third Base: Matt Thaiss ($2,600) This is another value play vs a pitcher I want to target in Hector Santiago. Thaiss hasn’t done much lately, which has helped suppress his price all the way down to $2,600 on FanDuel. In his 11 ABs vs lefties he has one homer and hits .273 ISO/.393 wOBA. Thaiss will have an even better chance to hit whatever righty pitcher comes in after Santiago has had enough.. He has an additional four home runs on righty pitching since mid July.
Short Stop: Trevor Story ($4,500 FD) is my top shortstop, although I also like the two below. He has 21 homers on the season and has the nuts matchup vs Noesi. Don’t overthink this one.
Short Stop: Evan Longoria ($3,200 FD) and the Giants are hot right now. Longo has 11 home runs with a .207 ISO/.325 wOBA on the season. In his last seven games he is hitting .423/.692. He goes against Taylor Clarke in Arizona tonight.
Shortstop Value: David Fletcher ($3,000 FD) His numbers on the season are average but he can thrive in the leadoff spot. In the last seven days he is batting .423/.654 SLG. He has nine hits in his last four games and gets Hector Santiago.
Outfield: Mike Trout ($4,900 FD) What do I need to say? It’s Mike Trout vs Hector Santiago. If you have the salary use him. Trout has eight homers vs lefties this year and hits .304 ISO/.436 wOBA. If the White Sox aren’t too scared to pitch to him he should hit one, or two, out.
Outfield: Charlie Blackmon ($4,700) I was dreaming about the Rockies vs. Hector Noesi last night. The matchup is perfect, and in Coors?! How do you not play them? Blackmon bats lead and has at least one hit in 13 of his last 15 games. If you are just looking at FanDuel boxscores people may get scared of playing him because he hasn’t hit a homer since August 8th and has been burning people for about a week. Don’t let the price tag scare you off. Blackmon should be in store for a multi-hit night and should be worth the price. We need the back end of the Rockies lineup to get on base so Blackmon gets his RBI. That should not be an issue vs the Marlins pitching.
Outfield: Alex Dickerson ($3,200 FD) LOL at $3,200 for Dickerson tonight vs Clarke. He can absolutely crush the ball and no one ever plays him in MLB DFS. He has six homers on his shortened season vs righties and hits .313 ISO/ .450 wOBA. He didn’t get his homer last night but he will tonight. LOCK.
Honorable Mentions: Eddie Rosario, Kole Calhoun, Mike Yastrzemski, Kevin Pillar, Max Kepler
Rockies, Giants, Twins and Angels are all in GREAT spots. If you like a bat off one of those teams and they are not mentioned above you can still play them. I tried to narrow down my plays here.
I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.
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This Saturday August 3rd slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my studs and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.
Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.
Catcher: Mitch Garver ($3,500 FD; $5,200 DK) is hitting .431 ISO/.500 wOBA vs lefties this year, which is only behind Nelson Cruz on the Twins. Danny Duffy (4.42 ERA) will be tossing to Garver on his home turf tonight. Garver certainly has the power (.629 SLG) to get his ninth home run in only his 75th AB against southpaws. Keep an eye on where he bats today. The closer to the top of the lineup he is, the more I like him in MLB DFS. He had admittedly been on a cold streak lately before busting out of it yesterday. Let’s hop on the beginning of another hot streak in Minnesota.
First Base Stud: Rhys Hoskins ($4,200 FD; $4,600 DK) I am going with some Phillies today. Hoskins also gets the pleasure of taking on Ross Detwiler. He is batting .307 ISO/ .454 wOBA vs left handed pitching this season. I usually hate stacking Phillies, but the matchup is too good to ignore today. Hoskins has a couple of long balls in his last four games and bats better at home. He has five more home runs at Citizens Bank Park this year with five less at bats than on the road.
Honorable Mention: Edwin Encarnacion
First Base Value: Albert Pujols ($2,900 FD; $4,300 DK) There is something about this man hitting value, and home runs, on the weekends. I know it is coincidence, but it just keeps happening. We are looking for cheap, under owned MLB DFS players with a high ceiling and Pujols fits the bill. Adam Plutko (4.83 ERA) is on the mound and he has given up 11 home runs in his last six home games this season. You do the math..
Second Base: Jose Altuve ($4,200 FD; $4,600 DK) goes against lefty Marco Gonzalez (.421 ERA) at home tonight. Altuve is on fire recently and bats .423 ISO/.540 wOBA vs lefties on the season. He has one game in his last six where he hasn’t scored double digit FanDuel points. Lock him in as a high floor, high ceiling bat.
Second Base Value: Austin Nola ($2,500 FD; $4,300 DK) is doing a lot with his newfound playing time recently. He bats .333/.489 SLG vs righties this season and the Mariners are starting to take notice. He had a goose egg last night but the two games before that he had three hits in each. At $2,500 I will go back to Nola expecting him to hit value, with potential to bust out. Aaron Sanchez (6.07 ERA) is on the bump in Houston and he absolutely gives it up all the time. Just go take a look at his season long game logs, it’s ugly.
Shortstop Stud: Marcus Semien ($3,400 FD; $4,300 DK) is batting leadoff for a team I like a lot today in the Oakland A’s. They face Dakota Hudson (3.88 ERA) who has given up 10 homers in his last seven appearances. Semien has 14 homers on the season and bats .156 ISO/.358 vs righties. Recently he has been a production machine and is always very low owned. Semien hasn’t put up a zero (in fantasy points) in his last 10 outings. He is going to get his, and no one will be on him.
Shortstop Mid: Jean Segura ($3,600 FD; $4,300 DK) is another Phillie I have my eye on. Hitting .336 ISO/.415 wOBA this season he is the best lefty hitter on his team, this year, if you are just looking at MLB DFS stats. Segura has nine hits in his last five games and a homer is coming soon. If the Phillies can’t take advantage of Detwiler (6.35 ERA) I may not roster them again this season.
Third Base Mid: Renato Nunez($3,200 FD; $4,700 DK) I still like how he is swinging the bat right now and no one ever plays him. In July he hit .304/.576 SLG and has been one of the Orioles key contributors. I don’t mind the bats surrounding him tonight (Mancini, Santander and Villar) either. Contrary to popular belief the Orioles can actually get it going some nights. He has 11 home runs on the season vs lefties and will be hitting vs one tonight. The pitcher Thomas Pannone has 5.98 ERA and has given up 10 runs in his last three starts. It probably won’t help him that Baltimore is a hitter’s park. Back to Nunez I go.
Third Base Value: Matt Thaiss ($2,500 FD; $4,100 DK) is a cheap bat with a lot of pop. He has four home runs in his last seven games. He hits .325 ISO/ .329 wOBA and has recently been contributing virtually every night. He is still very cheap for his skill set and makes a nice punt. The pitcher he faces, Adam Plutko, has given up 15 home runs in his last 10 games.
Third Base Honorable Mention: Matt Chapman
Outfield Stud: Nelson Cruz ($4,400 FD; $5,200 DK) vs. a lefty is really all you need know. He has 10 homers in 75 ABs and bats .440 ISO/.455 wOBA. Danny Duffy (L) is pitching for the Royals tonight and all this guy does is give up multiple run games. He should get an early shower tonight. Play Cruz and the Twins stack.
Outfield MidRange: Franmil Reyes ($2,900 FD; $4,000 DK) is new to Cleveland and still needs to show the Indians first hand why they traded for him. He has slugged 24 home runs this season vs righties with a .301 ISO/.371 wOBA and gets a nice pitching matchup today vs Felix Pena (R). In the entire season, Pena has only made it to six innings twice. Indians will put up some runs here.
Outfield Mid/Value: Phillip Ervin ($2,800 FD; $3,900 DK) has 17 hits in only 32 ABs with two home runs. He goes against the struggling Dallas Keuchel (R) in the hitter friendly SunTrust Park. Keuchel has 10 runs in his last 17 innings which is not what the Braves were hoping for when they acquired him. I don’t necessarily expect a Reds offensive explosion here, but Ervin at his price may be worth a MLB DFS stab. He is hitting .460 ISO/.649 wOBA.
Outfield Honorable Mention: Max Kepler
I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.
