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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 07/04

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

Happy July 4 everyone.  Hope you will all get to celebrate with good food and a drink in hand.  Today’s slate, while a little smaller than normal for a Sunday, provides us with solid options on the hill and also some solid options at the plate.  It’s shaping up for a fun slate.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Freddy Peralta ($9.9k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – I should preface this pick with saying that the Pirates are not a high strike out time.  That somewhat puts a cap on Peralta’s ceiling today.  Peralta however is an elite strikeout arm.  Strike out pitchers find strike outs.  There’s a reason they are strike out pitchers. 

If Houser was able to K 5 against this team on Friday night, I see no reason why Peralta can’t get that number up to 7 or 8.  My concern always with Peralta is his efficiency.  He throws a lot of pitches in a short period of time and rarely goes beyond 6 innings.  That said, he has a great match-up today against a weak hitting Pirates lineup.  With Peralta’s elite level 37% K rate, I see some upside in him today.

Charlie Morton ($9k) vs. Miami Marlins – Over the past week the Marlins have the third highest K rate of any team in baseball and the third lowest hard hit rate.  I’m going to attack them, especially when a solid pitcher is on the mound.  Today we have a solid pitcher throwing against them in Morton. 

Over the past month Morton has been pitching extremely well.  He has a 27% K rate to go with a 3.7 XFIP.  He’s giving up a ton of grounders also which really helps to limit damage as he’s only given up one long ball in his last 29 innings of work.  With the Marlins struggling and Morton pitching well, he’s my clear number 2 today. 

Lucas Giolito ($9.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is the cheapest we are getting Giolito in more than a month.  He gets a great match-up today against a team that has a 26% K rate this year vs. righties.  While the Tigers will show some signs of life every now and then, if we look at their body of work as a whole this season they are still a very weak offense.  Especially against righties. 

They have one of the lowest wRC+’s of any team today against the handedness at which they are facing.  It sits at just 91.  With Giolito we’re still getting a pitcher who has a 27% K rate over the past 30 days and an xFIP under 4. 

The one area of concern with Gio is that he is giving up homers at a pretty quick pace.  He’s given up 8 in his last 31 innings.  While it is a high number, he doesn’t put many runners on with a WHIP of just 1.03 over that same time frame.  So we know if he gives up a homer or two they will more than likely be solo shots. 

I also really like Robbie Ray ($10.8K).  He’s just really expensive and when we look at price point and match-up, I like the other 3 better.  He still warrants consideration as he has a ton of upside every outing with his extremely high K rate.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Anderson – While I prefer the Brewers vs. against righties, they do have a handful of guys that hit for power vs. lefties. 

I like attacking pitchers that have low K upside and have a high HR/FB ratio.  We have that today in Anderson.  His HR/FB ratio is 18.5% which is the second highest on the slate.  His K rate at 12.7% over the past 30 days is the second lowest on the slate. 

With how hot the Brewers have been recently, you just have to love the match-up here.  The two guys that standout the most to me today with the Brewers are Garcia ($3k) and Taylor ($2.3k).  Both have ISO’s greater than .260 against lefties this year and wOBA’s over .370.  I’m building around them.  All Brewers are in play though as they are just scorching hot right now. 

Chicago White Sox vs. Matt Manning – White Sox are a little banged up right now but they have a great match-up today.  Manning hast just not been good since getting called up to the bigs.  So far this year he’s giving up a 56% hard hit rate with just a 6.7% K rate.  So he’s giving up a ton of hard contact and not getting any K’s. 

If we look at splits, the hard hit rate is pretty much equal to both sides of the plate.  Where we see the difference is the fly ball rate as it jumps to 44% vs. lefties.  Because of that, I want to prioritize the lefties. If Goodwin ($3.1k) hits in the cleanup spot, he’s a must play.  Sheets ($3.2k) is also a must play as he gets the platoon match-up and he’s swinging a hot bat.  Over the past week he has a .531 wOBA and a 1.345 OPS.  All batters in this lineup should be in play today.

Minnesota Twins vs. Brad Keller – Twins lost a little bit of their lineup yesterday with Donaldson getting banged up, but I really like this spot for the Twins.  While Keller is a high ground-ball pitcher, he’s also someone that when giving up a fly ball there’s a strong likelihood of the ball going over the fence due to his high hard hit rate.  Keller has one of the highest HR/FB ratios of the pitchers going today.    

In looking at his pitch profile he’s a sinker ball pitcher.  Twins have some guys that have had great success against this pitch.  Nelson Cruz ($4.2k) automatically comes to mind.  Over the past several seasons he has a .255 ISO to this pitch with a low whiff rate.  He’s also been heating up as he has a .505 wOBA over the past week with a 1.218 OPS.  He’s my building block with a Twins stack.  While he hasn’t been hot of late, Arraez ($3k) will be hitting lead-off and also has some success against this pitch.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day.  Make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups.  Unlike the last few days we are blessed with clear skies everywhere today.    

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/12 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s monster 14-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 4:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The weather concerns in this slate are sparse and minor, and we shouldn’t be concerned about any delays that could impact the pitchers we’re targeting today.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

There’s definitely part of me who wants to roster Trevor Bauer, and the Dodgers RHP is certainly worth a look on DK at a discount, but on FD, Burnes makes the most sense as top dog, as he possesses the most strikeout upside on the slate. While some simulations actually have Bauer projected for a higher total tonight (even WinDaily’s model gives Bauer the slight value edge — likely due to the TEX team K rate of 26.8% vs. RHP), the new crackdown on foreign substances has had a detrimental effect on the K numbers of a few pitchers, “Tricky Trevor” included. Burnes, as Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 6/12 Starting Rotation article, is coming off a monster start where he racked up 13K and 70 FD points. He’s a top five MLB pitcher and FanDuel’s scoring allows him and his 18.5% swinging-strike rate (a metric that ranks behind only Jacob deGrom this season) the chance at 60+ each and every night he takes the mound. We’ll have to get a little creative with our hitting stacks to build something we can be confident with, but Burnes is a great option for cash games and I’ll be using him in some GPPs as well.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

For the second straight week, Muskrat Joe takes our top value spot. He was serviceable in that role last week with a 10 K outing, but he did get knocked around a little bit to the tune of 9 hits and 3 ER — and the pedestrian 5.0 IP kept him from receiving the crucial quality start bonus we need from our SP. Adam and I both like him for today’s slate, and the fact that he’s kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP under 3.00 in this career year make me happy to recommend him against the Mets. who strike out at a team rate of 23.7%. Musgrove is carrying a career-high 34.2% K rate and limiting his free passes, and the Mets don’t have their usually lefty firepower without a few of their better offensive players. Joe’s unlucky 6/5 start still yielded 36 FD points, and this time he’s the same price and should eclipse the 40 mark.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

I was actually a little giddy when I saw that Adam was on Taillon as a GPP value play today, because he’s one of the first options I considered when I thought “contrarian play” for this slate. Taillon is effective against right-handed bats and the Phillies (who have a bunch of them) strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB (26.4% — tied with MIA and MIL). I wouldn’t blame anyone for going a little safer with value options like TB LHP Rich Hill ($7,700 vs. BAL), but the Orioles relatively low K rate (20.2%) vs. LHP makes me think he lacks the same upside, value and leverage for GPPs. If we want to stack some of the best bats, we’ll need what Taillon offers in salary relief to get there.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

AS of 11:11 a.m. EST, there’s no line yet on this game, but you’d have to imagine that the high-powered Braves offense is projected for 5+ runs against a 27-year-old rookie making just his second major-league start. Thompson’s minor-league metrics don’t jump off the page and the Braves have just too much firepower to worry about using them. Go with Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and a still-discounted Austin Riley ($2,700) in a four-man stacks, swapping out Albies for value options (and righty mashers) William Contreras ($2,200) and Abraham Almonte ($2,100) if you need the salary savings to get four Braves in your build.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

The Brewers have a bunch of risky but potent hitters in their lineup to go along with the consistently excellent bat of Christian Yelich ($3,800), including Avisail Garcia ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), Luis Urias ($2,700) and Willy Adames ($2,200). Left-handed OF Jace Peterson is also an option at just $2,200. I’m particularly interested in four-man combos that prominently feature Narvaez, Yelich and Vogelbach as a three-man core, with Urias, Garcia, Peterson and Adames alternately making up the fourth Brewer bat. Giddyup!

Update: Luis Urias is sitting this one out.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

The A’s are never all that popular as a team stack on big slates, and today they could be in for an offensive explosion against Jackson Kowar, who carries a 54.00 ERA after one career start — a rocky debut outing against the Angels on Monday. The usual suspects are in play here, from “Mashing” Matt Olson ($3,500) to leadoff hitter Mark Canha ($3,700) and a slew of low-priced options including Tony Kemp (just $2,000!), Jed Lowrie ($2,900) and Sean Murphy ($2,400). I’m also quite enamored with Seth Brown ($2,400) as a risk-reward value option, and I’ll be mixing and matching a few different four-man combinations of these six A’s hitters in my large-field GPP entries.

Update: Both Lowrie and Canha are not starting on Saturday.

Other stacking options: NYY RH bats vs. PHI RHP Vince Velazquez, CIN LH bats vs. COL RHP German Marquez

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 4/17 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

We’ve got some live arms and potent bats in this edition of Aces and Bases focusing ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET.

There are no bad weather issues but a possible COVID outbreak on the Houston Astros means we have to stay vigilant on news and have pivots at the ready!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,900)

Kershaw is the highest-priced arm and the likely chalk, but I’d venture to say that Darvish has more contrarian upside in a home matchup against a team that’s not known for swing-and-misses, but doesn’t have a lot of experience facing Darvish. The Japanese marvel is notoriously tricky to solve and seemed at ease in his last two starts — and while Kershaw might be the preferred option in cash games, I’ll take the cheaper San Diego RHP in GPPs for some leverage on the field, since only a small percentage of DFS gamers will use pitchers against the “Boys in Blue.”

Best Value: Dane Dunning ($8,000)

I’m a little concerned about getting six innings from Dunning, and that seems to be where he’d max out at his current pitch count progression, but he’ striking out more than a batter per inning in three major league starts and the command for this 26-year-old RHP. He throws a nasty sinker that complements his four-seamer and mixes in a decent slider and occasional use of a change and curveball. The Orioles strike out at the second-highest clip in the majors this season and Dunning could offer the cheapest path to 8+ Ks and a quality start.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (RHP Chris Flexen)

The Astros have the fourth-highest team xOBA in baseball (.342) and shouldn’t have much trouble against the eminently hittable Chris Flexen. I’m most interested in some combination of the 2-6 hitters here, which could include Aledmys Diaz ($2,600), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Yuri Gurriel ($2,800), Kyle Tucker ($3,500) and Carlos Correa ($3,000). The prices are discounted a bit on these guys without Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman — who all hit the injured listed for undisclosed reasons, prompting rumors of a possible COVID outbreak. Stay tuned since there could be some news of a postponement or more players hitting that list.

Value/Contrarian Stack: Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (Jose Quintana)

So far this season, Jose Quintana has had a very difficult time retiring the 27 RH batters he’s faced, and he’s clearly on the downside of his career when those splits tend to become a little more exaggerated. The Twins are loaded with relatively inexpensive powerful righty hitters like Nelson Cruz ($3,800), Josh Donaldson ($3,000), Mitch Garver ($2,400) and Miguel Sano ($2,800). I was on them last night and they didn’t deliver against Andrew Heaney — a solid pitcher in his own right — but I’m going right back to the well. Cruz alone sports an obscene .570 wOBA and .440 ISO vs. LHP over his last 63 games, and Donaldson, Garver and Kyle Garlick ($2,200) all mash against LHP.

EDIT: The Twins-Angels game has been postponed, so remove any players associated with that game ASAP.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Trevor Cahill)

It’s not one of those slates where you need to deploy a very inexpensive secondary value stack, but the Brewers strike me as a classic boom-or-bust GPP stack you might want to mix into a few large, low-cost tournaments for their upside and potent lefty bats, including Travis Shaw ($2,900), Omar Narvaez ($2,700) and Christian Yelich ($4,100), who’s missed four straight with a back injury but is still considered DTD. If he can’t go, Billy McKinney ($2,000) could get the start, as both he and Jackie Bradley ($2,400) have been used to spell Yelich. Also keep an eye on Daniel Vogelbach at just $2,100. If you’re looking to run a Pirtes hitter back against the group, I’d prefer 3B Phillip Evans, who’s been raking against LHP this season and hits out of the 4 slot.

Good luck!

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10/1 MLB DFS Wild Card Slate, Showdown, and Prop Picks

written by

It always amazes me how quickly the MLB season flies by. It seems like one day you are studying for upcoming seasonal drafts and the next you are sitting here writing a Wild Card round article. This 10/1 MLB DFS piece will guide you through everything you need to know to succeed for the Tues-Wed slates. With Incendiary’s “Cost of Living” playing in the background, and a hopeful Dodgers future, let’s get this show on the road.

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Pitching

The most important fact to consider when selecting postseason pitching is, they are all top starters. Especially in one game situations. All four pitchers on this slate are viable options, even if the starter for Oakland has not been officially named yet. But, if it is Sean Manaea like we all think, for his salary on DK he is just as much in the mix. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate I would have no problem locking him in while I wait to see what develops.

Max Scherzervs. Milwaukee Brewers (Tuesday)

$11,000 FD / $9,400 DK / $12,600 DK-SD / $18,900 DK-SD-CP

This game could be a lot higher scoring than most believe. The Brewers are striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs this season while coming in 15th in MLB in wOBA. We do have several factors in play here for this game, the first being that Scherzer’s ERA has more than doubled in the second half. There was serious talk of possibly not having him start this game, but Dave Martinez decided Mad Max’s 1.50 ERA versus the Brew Crew with 10 strikeouts over six innings was enough to give him the nod.

The next big factor to look at is the Brewers themselves. The get a negative ballpark shift playing on the road in Washington despite Scherzer’s higher home ERA. Plus, let’s not forget the monster known as Christian Yelich is on hiatus due to injury. All numbers point to a low scoring game to be decided by the bullpens. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate every starter is viable, especially the Scherz.

BrandonWoodruff vs. Washington Nationals (Tuesday)

$6,200 FD / $6,400 DK / $10,000 DK-SD / $15,500 DK-SD-CP

Much like Scherzer on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate Woodruff benefits from the same positive park shift. However, the Nationals are seventh in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. This season Woody dominated the Nats in his only start, facing them back in May, striking out nine batters over six innings while only allowing one earned run. Keep in mind he is working his way back from injury and more than likely will only pitch a few innings.

Charlie Mortonvs. Oakland Athletics (Wednesday)

$9,500 FD / $8,600 DK

As much as I would love to see Oakland advance here the numbers are really telling me differently. Against the Athletics over two starts, Morton has a 0.68 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings. Much like tonight’s game this one is also going to come down to the bullpens. With the A’s batting .207 over the last seven days Morton is going to feast on them tomorrow night.

2019 Starting Pitching Stats

NameTeamIPK/9BB/9HR/9GB%HR/FBERAxFIP
Max ScherzerNationals172.112.691.720.9440.80%11.60%2.922.88
Charlie MortonRays194.211.12.640.6948.20%10.40%3.053.28
Brandon WoodruffBrewers121.210.582.220.8944.60%12.00%3.623.36
Sean ManaeaAthletics29.29.12.120.9141.20%10.70%1.213.98

Hitting

So, here is the trick to selecting offense on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate, attack the bullpens. With top tier starters taking the mound often it’s that dicey bullpen who ends up surrendering runs. This means we need to look at their numbers. My favorite stat for this is second half bullpen ERA. By this point in the season most guys are wearing out, especially on teams that have found themselves in high leverage situations leading up to this point. Like most Wild Card teams. I expect a lot of pitching changes tonight, much more so than tomorrow night, so I would focus my offense on the Brewers-Nationals game.

Second Half Bullpen Stats

TeamIPK/9BB/9HR/9GB%HR/FBERAxFIP
Nationals234.28.943.721.6137.30%15.30%4.834.88
Brewers28411.123.961.4343.40%18.00%3.993.96
Athletics226.210.23.141.2341.00%14.00%3.774.08
Rays328.110.752.741.2941.90%15.00%3.563.8

Stack #1: Brewers versus RHPs

As mentioned, this is the game to stack on this two-game 10/1 MLB DFS slate. After locking in Manaea and Morton for tomorrow night you are left with a remaining player salary on DK of nearly $4,300. With the Nationals having one of the worst bullpens in MLB in the 2nd half, I prefer Milwaukee tonight.

Don’t let he BVP scare you versus Scherzer tonight. If he finds himself giving up a few runs, or in trouble, he will be pulled early.

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Keston Hiura2656.80%30.20%0.2360.418159
Eric Thames39710.60%30.50%0.3530.362122
Yasmani Grandal43816.40%21.90%0.7530.35114
Mike Moustakas4039.90%17.60%0.5630.342109
Ryan Braun3325.40%23.50%0.2380.338106
Trent Grisham14711.60%23.10%0.510.31994
Lorenzo Cain4457.60%17.10%0.4590.29679
Ben Gamel27710.10%29.60%0.3410.28471
Travis Shaw21916.40%32.90%0.500.27867
Cory Spangenberg847.10%32.10%0.2220.2762
Orlando Arcia4117.80%20.70%0.3870.26156
Hernan Perez1275.50%33.90%0.1620.2442
Manny Pina989.20%25.50%0.3600.23338
Tyler Austin6910.10%44.90%0.2310.23241
Tyler Saladino527.70%32.70%0.2420.1888

Stack #2: Nationals versus RHPs

Brandon Woodruff as nasty as he is may not go deep into this game. His recent starts suggest maybe three innings. Unless of course they have been babying him and plan on letting him go full bore tonight. Either way, I still prefer the Nats offense tonight over both teams tomorrow night.

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Juan Soto43818.30%20.30%0.990.414155
Anthony Rendon47511.40%12.40%0.9220.411153
Howie Kendrick2447.80%12.70%0.6110.385136
Trea Turner4417.50%20.40%0.37270.36120
Adam Eaton49910.60%15.60%0.68110.342108
Asdrubal Cabrera37410.20%22.20%0.4630.33299
Kurt Suzuki2377.20%11.40%0.6300.31993
Victor Robles4585.90%23.60%0.25160.31490
Matt Adams2707.00%35.20%0.200.31489
Brian Dozier34612.40%22.30%0.5620.31288
Gerardo Parra2326.90%19.80%0.3560.29176
Ryan Zimmerman1379.50%19.70%0.4800.27765
Yan Gomes2738.40%25.30%0.3320.27564
Michael A. Taylor577.00%36.80%0.1950.2654
Wilmer Difo1159.60%18.30%0.5200.25450

Stack #3: Rays versus LHPs

The numbers suggest the Wednesday games will be lower scoring. For the simple reason I see more innings coming out of Morton in this one, the Rays take precedent over the A’s. There will be more bullpen exposure here, pure and simple.

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Tommy Pham19718.80%17.80%1.0680.407161
Yandy Diaz11712.00%21.40%0.5610.402158
Travis d’Arnaud1508.70%21.30%0.4100.362130
Eric Sogard1209.20%18.30%0.520.353122
Michael Brosseau734.10%23.30%0.1800.347120
Austin Meadows1775.10%29.90%0.1720.346120
Guillermo Heredia1246.50%23.40%0.2800.337114
Kevin Kiermaier1303.80%21.50%0.1850.332110
Avisail Garcia1777.90%22.60%0.3500.328107
Jesus Aguilar14512.40%22.10%0.5600.30386
Daniel Robertson9610.40%28.10%0.3710.29988
Brandon Lowe682.90%52.90%0.0600.28277
Ji-Man Choi9411.70%23.40%0.500.2875
Michael Perez110.00%45.50%000.26967
Willy Adames1986.60%27.80%0.2410.24551
Matt Duffy6613.60%19.70%0.6900.24551
Mike Zunino1019.90%33.70%0.2900.21430
Joey Wendle596.80%25.40%0.2710.168-1

Stack #4: Athletics versus RHPs

With Charlie Morton having dominated the Athletics this season, and the Rays having one of the best bullpens in MLB, this really lowers the offensive production possibilities. This places Oakland at the bottom of the list for me.

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Mark Canha34012.90%23.50%0.5520.405160
Sean Murphy4010.00%27.50%0.3600.394152
Matt Olson37411.20%25.90%0.4300.391150
Seth Brown6910.10%27.50%0.3710.379142
Marcus Semien54511.60%14.30%0.81100.367134
Ramon Laureano3466.40%26.60%0.2490.361129
Matt Chapman49110.20%22.80%0.4510.355126
Robbie Grossman42412.50%17.50%0.7280.30793
Jurickson Profar3998.80%14.50%0.670.28679
Chad Pinder1914.20%25.70%0.1600.2875
Stephen Piscotty3018.00%22.30%0.3620.27269
Josh Phegley2395.00%21.80%0.2300.26666
Khris Davis3837.30%30.80%0.2400.25256

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DraftKings Showdown

Obviously, you are going to want both starting pitchers in all your lineups. The big decision is the Captain spot. I would find a cheap player that steadily produces fantasy points and reserve this spot for him. This allows you the spending power to pretty much have your way with bats. Here is a screenshot of two of my Showdown lineups for tonight as an example.

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This one seems easy for me tonight. Scherzer, despite having some recent woes with earned runs allowed, still strikes out batters at an incredible rate. This one is over all the way.

Brandon Woodruff may not go deep into this one but will certainly achieve this over in a matter of three innings.

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MLB

9/28 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks: A long road home

written by

It is hard to believe this 9/28 MLB DFS slate is the second to last regular season day of MLB. My Dodgers have things firmly in hand, and my hopes of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series are well alive. When each season winds down it leaves me with a feeling of both sadness, and relief. This is a tradition I have watched unfold now for over forty years, and each one leaves me with tears in my eyes, even as a grown man.

With everything pretty much said and done, all the players today are basically playing for personal glory. This makes pitching extremely tough to nail down. The biggest advice I can give to you today is play light and save your bankroll for NFL DFS. Today truly is a crap shoot. So, with Mindset “Leave No Doubt” playing in the background, I bring you my last MLB DFS regular season pitching article.

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On the Defense

I have no clue what is going on tonight with the Tigers atWhite Sox. The pitching option is not available on FD, but has Reynaldo Lopez slatedto start on DK, even though everything I have seen has him slated to pitch theday game. Keep on eye on this one.

JustinVerlander vs. Los Angeles Angels

$11,400 FD / $12,800 DK

My confidence in Verlander’s competitiveness drives this 9/28 MLB DFS play. The Angels with Mike Trout were not the scariest team on most nights, and without him is anything but. Over the last seven days the other guys from Los Angeles are batting a .221 with a pathetic wRC+ of 68. Even Justin’s sub-par numbers versus the Angels this season are better than most pitchers’ good ones. With question marks all over the board tonight he has the highest upside.

RobbieRay vs. San Diego Padres

$9,300 FD / $10,600 DK

With the Padres striking out 24.8 percent of the time versusLHPs Robbie Ray is a fully loaded 9/28 MLB DFS option. Ray may have allowed fourearned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing facing San Diego, but he alsohad 10 strikeouts. Even with a negative ballpark shift in Arizona, for thediscount from Verlander, I would have no fear of using him in both cash gamesand GPPs.

BrettAnderson vs. Seattle Mariners

$6,700 FD / $7,200 DK

The Seattle Mariners are striking out 24.7 percent of the time versus LHPs this season. Anderson also over his last nine starts has only allowed more than three earned runs once. Seattle over the last seven days is striking out 28.7 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 32 while batting .177. I cannot think of a better time to attack them than on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate.

ReynaldoLopez vs. Detroit Tigers

$6,700 DK

As earlier mentioned, I am not 100 percent sure Lopez is starting the night game, but DK does have him listed. The not so mighty Tigers are striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs while coming in 30th in MLB in both wOBA and wRC+. His last two starts facing Detroit did not go as well as hoped, but he has had major success versus this lineup in the past. I sure hope he pitches on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate because I would love to pair him with Anderson freeing up a ton of salary to spend on hitting tonight.

NameTeamWLIPK/9BB/9HR/9GB%HR/FBERAxFIP
Justin VerlanderAstros20621711.941.741.4136.60%15.50%2.533.24
Robbie RayDiamondbacks12816812.034.331.537.80%19.20%4.283.81
Brett AndersonAthletics1291714.582.531.0554.40%13.60%44.83
Reynaldo LopezWhite Sox9151768.183.271.7434.90%13.90%5.575.39

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On theAttack

We have a Coors Field game on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate, and a lot ownership is going to head towards facing a lefty in Colorado. We do however have a few other sweet stacking options at lower prices.

JamesMarvel vs. Cincinnati Reds

Talk about a gift on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate. James will do anything but Marvel regardless of who he is facing. In his first three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. The beauty is they let him keep pitching. With nothing to lose at this point I see that trend continuing tonight.

Reds vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Eugenio Suarez4967.50%28.00%0.2710.372127
Aristides Aquino1616.20%24.80%0.2560.358118
Joey Votto42512.50%18.60%0.6730.35113
Derek Dietrich27910.00%23.30%0.4310.348111
Josh VanMeter22611.50%21.20%0.5470.32798
Tucker Barnhart30612.10%22.20%0.5400.31993
Curt Casali1339.00%27.80%0.3200.31489
Freddy Galvis4066.20%26.40%0.2320.3191
Jose Iglesias3953.00%14.20%0.2160.30382
Nick Senzel3047.20%28.30%0.2680.29477
Phillip Ervin1596.30%27.70%0.2330.27966
Michael Lorenzen329.40%28.10%0.3340.27262
Kyle Farmer1223.30%33.60%0.100.2654
Jose Peraza2792.90%16.10%0.1840.25450

Garrett Richardsvs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Talk about a terrible comeback. Richards has allowed sevenearned runs over 5 1/3 innings since his return. Four of them earned runs werein his last start facing this same Diamondbacks team, but the last time was inSan Diego. Tonight, he is heading to Arizona and a negative park shift. The D’Backsare in full play on this 9/28 MLB DFS Slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Ketel Marte45410.10%14.10%0.7280.404150
Abraham Almonte3315.20%24.20%0.6300.399147
Kevin Cron575.30%33.30%0.1600.341109
Christian Walker4239.00%27.00%0.3370.341109
Eduardo Escobar4918.60%18.90%0.4540.335105
Alex Avila16219.80%34.60%0.5710.331102
Domingo Leyba2615.40%30.80%0.500.32698
Wilmer Flores1726.40%10.50%0.6100.32598
Tim Locastro1504.70%14.70%0.32160.31894
Adam Jones3575.90%19.00%0.3120.31189
Nick Ahmed4608.00%19.30%0.4270.29780
Carson Kelly26112.30%21.80%0.5600.29679
Jarrod Dyson39510.60%18.50%0.58290.27465
Jake Lamb19412.90%24.20%0.5310.27163
Josh Rojas1159.60%25.20%0.3820.26257
Ildemaro Vargas1565.10%13.50%0.3810.26156
Caleb Joseph323.10%21.90%0.1400.20822

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The reality is Mike Foltynewicz has been incredible lately, and I am also sure that a ton of DFS writers are putting him out there today. My rule as a DFS writer is simple, if I am not going to use a player in my lineup, I will not include them in my article. But he is in a great spot, I just smell regression. Folty has only had eight strikeouts once this season, back on May 31st facing the Tigers. Under all the way.

Steven Matz has achieved these number a few times this season facing the Braves. With everything well in hand for Atlanta, I see some bench playing time today. Over all the way.

The Padres are among the league leaders in strikeouts versus LHPs, this is not a good thing for them. Robbie Ray has a 12.0 K/9, which is a very good thing for him. Over all the way.

Richards will be lucky enough to survive three innings tonight before being sent to the showers. Under.

A word if I may. Thank you to my beautiful wife Jennifer for taking my hand in marriage six years ago today. You put up with endless sports on the TV, loud and obnoxious hardcore music, and my grumpiness on a daily basis. I love you and hope we have many more years together. Happy Anniversary.

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MLB

9/18 DFS Pitching Picks: Good Time at the Cole K Corral

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The highlight of the 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks could be dimmed by a nasty, blustery lady named Imelda.

The Tropical Depression Formerly Known as Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to hammer the Houston area with high winds and up to 12 inches of rain between now and Thursday. While it’s highly unlikely the weather will be a factor in Gerrit Cole’s bid for 300 strikeouts, let’s not leave everything to chance.

Cole is the best play of Wednesday’s main slate. There are five games scheduled for the afternoon, where Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard are each pitching. The daytime even features Marlins hurler Sandy Alcantara, who’s made for a great GPP option over his past five starts.

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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Cash Game Pitcher

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TEX

DK ($12,800), FD ($12,100) 

Cole has six straight games of at least 10 strikeouts, so it’s not a question of if, but how long into the night before Cole reaches 300 Ks, making him only the third pitcher in franchise history to do so. He’s delivered at least 30 DraftKings points in each of his last six starts; FanDuel users have seen Cole record at least 30 points in 14 straight outings.

Currently sitting at a 39.4% strikeout rate, Cole will have at least two more starts to get as close as possible to 40%. He’s fanned 20 Royals over 14.1 innings this season, including 11 in last Friday’s win. Over the past month, Cole has struck out a staggering 55.6% of the batters he’s faced, with his slider one of the driving forces behind the run. It’s been an increase of using his slider that has helped explode his strikeout rate to heights we didn’t think we’d see after Cole struck out over 36% in 2018.

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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – GPP Pitchers

Jake Odorizzi, MIN vs. CWS

DK ($10,600), FD ($9,300) 

The Ks have come aplenty for Odorizzi when facing the White Sox, having fanned 23 over 16.1 innings. He’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks play in GPP formats, especially when you consider he’s yet to allow a homer to Pale Hose bats this season.

Odorizzi has an 0.98 HR/9 rate despite allowing a hard contact rate of 42.3% and a 44.3% fly ball rate. How the hell he’s pulled such a low HR/9 in this of all seasons is beyond me. The reduction in BB/9 from 3.83 from last season to 3.12 this year has helped carry him to two starts of at least 40 FanDuel points in his last three starts.

Aaron Civale, CLE vs. DET

DK ($9,100), FD ($8,500) 

Civale has yet to allow more than two earned runs and gets a gem of a start against a Tigers team that is averaging less than four runs per game over the past week. Detroit is hitting a composite .234/.285/.363 versus average fly ball/ground ball pitchers like Civale, who has allowed just two homers in 46.2 innings of work.

I like Civale in FanDuel, as he has put up at least 30 points in five of his eight starts. You’ll also like him more considering he’s delivered a 1.06 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 17 innings when pitching at Progressive Field. At this late in the season, chances are good Civale should be able to keep his BABIP around his current .267. With a thin main slate, Civale’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks option.

Adrian Houser, MIL vs. SD

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500) 

Bah Gawd! Houser is cheap. He also falls into a wonderful matchup against a Padres offense that has hit a combined .205/.330/.373 in their past seven games. San Diego’s batters are averaging nearly 11 strikeouts in the same span, which plays well with Houser’s 9.52 K/9 rate. You can live with Houser’s 1.19 HR/9 even against the all-or-nothing Padres bats that have produced a .373 slugging percentage and .652 OPS over the past two weeks.

If he’s not whiffing batters, Houser’s 53.4% ground ball rate will keep his infielders busy. He has a pretty low 24.8% fly ball rate and does also project to flirt with 30 points at FanDuel. I’d run with Houser and load up on offense.

9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Punt Pick

Tony Gonsolin, LAD vs. TB

DK ($8,700), FD ($6,600) 

Gonsolin holds a .219 BABIP and continues to be a reasonable choice in GPP or Punt plays. That trend should maintain itself despite a 47% hard contact rate against and a 43.9% fly ball rate. Those trends will sooner or later walk him down.

Don’t expect the Rays to get too many line drives off of him, as Gonsolin allows just a 13.3% line drive rate. He’s obviously a better pitcher at home (.120 batting average allowed, 1.20 ERA), so while he’s not going to go too deep in games, Gonsolin should do just enough to make him a worthy punt.

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MLB

MLB GPP Stacks: MLB Winning Edge for August 26

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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s seven-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our Premium Gold DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB GPP Stack: Milwaukee Brewers

vs. RHP Adam Wainwright (STL): 5.10 Runs

**Low Risk

The Brewers and Yankees will likely be your most popular stacks on this short slate and for good reason. Wainwright struggles a lot with left handed batters on the road. They are slashing to a tune of .414 wOBA, .610 SLG, and .423 OBP over 24.2 innings pitched. He has allowed 24 earned runs and five homers over that span. Wainwright is a big time ground ball pitcher at near a 50% clip of batted balls. He faces a team with three players in the top 15 in terms of flyball percentage and he just gave up five earned runs against the Brewers in his last start. Now the Brewers get him at home and are hitting right around their season averages.

Preferred Plays: Christian Yelich ($4800 FD|$5800 DK), Keston Hiura ($3600 FD|$5400 DK), Yasmani Grandal ($4000 FD|$5100 DK), and Mike Moustakas ($3700 FD|$5000 DK). Eric Thames ($2900 FD|$5000 DK) on FD.

GPP Stack: New York Yankees

vs. LHP Tommy Milone (PLR) (SEA): UPDATE

**Moderate Risk

I actually love this entire game and can see myself stacking it with only seven games on the board. No definitive answer on who is pitching for SEA, but it looks like Tommy Milone gets the nod for projected long reliever. Either way the Yankees get a dream matchup against left handed pitching. They are absolutely destroying lefties, slashing to a .400 wOBA, .300 ISO, and 186 WRC+. All of the LHPs on this SEA staff below Marco Gonzalez are horrendous to righties at home so I’m not going to overthink this one and have plenty of exposure to the Yankees.

Preferred Stack: Aaron Judge (an absolute lock at his salary) ($4100 FD|$4600 DK), DJ LeMahieu ($3900 FD|$4900 DK), Gio Urshula ($3300 FD|$4300 DK), and Gleyber Torres ($4200 FD|5100 DK). Mike Tauchman ($2600 FD|$4100 DK) offers salary relief and correlation batting 9th.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB GPP Stack: Seattle Mariners

vs. LHP J.A. Happ (NYM): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Like I said, I’m crazy about this game. J.A. Happ is on the other side and he has had a pretty bad season as we all know. I don’t love the Mariners as a full stack but they offer some great value pieces (particularly on FD) for those expensive NYY/MIL stacks.

Preferred Plays: Austin Nola ($2800 FD|$4500 DK), Tom Murphy ($3000 FD|$5100 DK), Tim Lopes ($2600 FD|$4300 DK), and Kyle Seager ($3700 FD|$4600 DK).

MLB GPP Stack: San Francisco Giants

vs. LHP Alex Young (ARI): UPDATE

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Evan Longoria ($3300 FD|$4200 DK), Austin Slater ($2600 FD|$4400 DK), Kevin Pillar ($3200 FD|$4300 DK), and Donovan Solano ($2300 FD|$3900 DK). Also consider Mike Yastrzemski ($3200 FD|$5100 DK).

Pitching

  1. Sonny Gray RHP (CIN): 3.30 Runs
  2. Pablo Lopez RHP (MIA): 4.20 Runs
  3. Dustin May RHP (LAD): 4.10 Runs

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