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10/1 MLB DFS Wild Card Slate, Showdown, and Prop Picks

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It always amazes me how quickly the MLB season flies by. It seems like one day you are studying for upcoming seasonal drafts and the next you are sitting here writing a Wild Card round article. This 10/1 MLB DFS piece will guide you through everything you need to know to succeed for the Tues-Wed slates. With Incendiary’s “Cost of Living” playing in the background, and a hopeful Dodgers future, let’s get this show on the road.

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Pitching

The most important fact to consider when selecting postseason pitching is, they are all top starters. Especially in one game situations. All four pitchers on this slate are viable options, even if the starter for Oakland has not been officially named yet. But, if it is Sean Manaea like we all think, for his salary on DK he is just as much in the mix. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate I would have no problem locking him in while I wait to see what develops.

Max Scherzer vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Tuesday)

$11,000 FD / $9,400 DK / $12,600 DK-SD / $18,900 DK-SD-CP

This game could be a lot higher scoring than most believe. The Brewers are striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs this season while coming in 15th in MLB in wOBA. We do have several factors in play here for this game, the first being that Scherzer’s ERA has more than doubled in the second half. There was serious talk of possibly not having him start this game, but Dave Martinez decided Mad Max’s 1.50 ERA versus the Brew Crew with 10 strikeouts over six innings was enough to give him the nod.

The next big factor to look at is the Brewers themselves. The get a negative ballpark shift playing on the road in Washington despite Scherzer’s higher home ERA. Plus, let’s not forget the monster known as Christian Yelich is on hiatus due to injury. All numbers point to a low scoring game to be decided by the bullpens. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate every starter is viable, especially the Scherz.

Brandon Woodruff vs. Washington Nationals (Tuesday)

$6,200 FD / $6,400 DK / $10,000 DK-SD / $15,500 DK-SD-CP

Much like Scherzer on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate Woodruff benefits from the same positive park shift. However, the Nationals are seventh in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. This season Woody dominated the Nats in his only start, facing them back in May, striking out nine batters over six innings while only allowing one earned run. Keep in mind he is working his way back from injury and more than likely will only pitch a few innings.

Charlie Morton vs. Oakland Athletics (Wednesday)

$9,500 FD / $8,600 DK

As much as I would love to see Oakland advance here the numbers are really telling me differently. Against the Athletics over two starts, Morton has a 0.68 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings. Much like tonight’s game this one is also going to come down to the bullpens. With the A’s batting .207 over the last seven days Morton is going to feast on them tomorrow night.

2019 Starting Pitching Stats

NameTeamIPK/9BB/9HR/9GB%HR/FBERAxFIP
Max ScherzerNationals172.112.691.720.9440.80%11.60%2.922.88
Charlie MortonRays194.211.12.640.6948.20%10.40%3.053.28
Brandon WoodruffBrewers121.210.582.220.8944.60%12.00%3.623.36
Sean ManaeaAthletics29.29.12.120.9141.20%10.70%1.213.98

Hitting

So, here is the trick to selecting offense on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate, attack the bullpens. With top tier starters taking the mound often it’s that dicey bullpen who ends up surrendering runs. This means we need to look at their numbers. My favorite stat for this is second half bullpen ERA. By this point in the season most guys are wearing out, especially on teams that have found themselves in high leverage situations leading up to this point. Like most Wild Card teams. I expect a lot of pitching changes tonight, much more so than tomorrow night, so I would focus my offense on the Brewers-Nationals game.

Second Half Bullpen Stats

TeamIPK/9BB/9HR/9GB%HR/FBERAxFIP
Nationals234.28.943.721.6137.30%15.30%4.834.88
Brewers28411.123.961.4343.40%18.00%3.993.96
Athletics226.210.23.141.2341.00%14.00%3.774.08
Rays328.110.752.741.2941.90%15.00%3.563.8

Stack #1: Brewers versus RHPs

As mentioned, this is the game to stack on this two-game 10/1 MLB DFS slate. After locking in Manaea and Morton for tomorrow night you are left with a remaining player salary on DK of nearly $4,300. With the Nationals having one of the worst bullpens in MLB in the 2nd half, I prefer Milwaukee tonight.

Don’t let he BVP scare you versus Scherzer tonight. If he finds himself giving up a few runs, or in trouble, he will be pulled early.

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Keston Hiura2656.80%30.20%0.2360.418159
Eric Thames39710.60%30.50%0.3530.362122
Yasmani Grandal43816.40%21.90%0.7530.35114
Mike Moustakas4039.90%17.60%0.5630.342109
Ryan Braun3325.40%23.50%0.2380.338106
Trent Grisham14711.60%23.10%0.510.31994
Lorenzo Cain4457.60%17.10%0.4590.29679
Ben Gamel27710.10%29.60%0.3410.28471
Travis Shaw21916.40%32.90%0.500.27867
Cory Spangenberg847.10%32.10%0.2220.2762
Orlando Arcia4117.80%20.70%0.3870.26156
Hernan Perez1275.50%33.90%0.1620.2442
Manny Pina989.20%25.50%0.3600.23338
Tyler Austin6910.10%44.90%0.2310.23241
Tyler Saladino527.70%32.70%0.2420.1888

Stack #2: Nationals versus RHPs

Brandon Woodruff as nasty as he is may not go deep into this game. His recent starts suggest maybe three innings. Unless of course they have been babying him and plan on letting him go full bore tonight. Either way, I still prefer the Nats offense tonight over both teams tomorrow night.

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Juan Soto43818.30%20.30%0.990.414155
Anthony Rendon47511.40%12.40%0.9220.411153
Howie Kendrick2447.80%12.70%0.6110.385136
Trea Turner4417.50%20.40%0.37270.36120
Adam Eaton49910.60%15.60%0.68110.342108
Asdrubal Cabrera37410.20%22.20%0.4630.33299
Kurt Suzuki2377.20%11.40%0.6300.31993
Victor Robles4585.90%23.60%0.25160.31490
Matt Adams2707.00%35.20%0.200.31489
Brian Dozier34612.40%22.30%0.5620.31288
Gerardo Parra2326.90%19.80%0.3560.29176
Ryan Zimmerman1379.50%19.70%0.4800.27765
Yan Gomes2738.40%25.30%0.3320.27564
Michael A. Taylor577.00%36.80%0.1950.2654
Wilmer Difo1159.60%18.30%0.5200.25450

Stack #3: Rays versus LHPs

The numbers suggest the Wednesday games will be lower scoring. For the simple reason I see more innings coming out of Morton in this one, the Rays take precedent over the A’s. There will be more bullpen exposure here, pure and simple.

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Tommy Pham19718.80%17.80%1.0680.407161
Yandy Diaz11712.00%21.40%0.5610.402158
Travis d’Arnaud1508.70%21.30%0.4100.362130
Eric Sogard1209.20%18.30%0.520.353122
Michael Brosseau734.10%23.30%0.1800.347120
Austin Meadows1775.10%29.90%0.1720.346120
Guillermo Heredia1246.50%23.40%0.2800.337114
Kevin Kiermaier1303.80%21.50%0.1850.332110
Avisail Garcia1777.90%22.60%0.3500.328107
Jesus Aguilar14512.40%22.10%0.5600.30386
Daniel Robertson9610.40%28.10%0.3710.29988
Brandon Lowe682.90%52.90%0.0600.28277
Ji-Man Choi9411.70%23.40%0.500.2875
Michael Perez110.00%45.50%000.26967
Willy Adames1986.60%27.80%0.2410.24551
Matt Duffy6613.60%19.70%0.6900.24551
Mike Zunino1019.90%33.70%0.2900.21430
Joey Wendle596.80%25.40%0.2710.168-1

Stack #4: Athletics versus RHPs

With Charlie Morton having dominated the Athletics this season, and the Rays having one of the best bullpens in MLB, this really lowers the offensive production possibilities. This places Oakland at the bottom of the list for me.

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Mark Canha34012.90%23.50%0.5520.405160
Sean Murphy4010.00%27.50%0.3600.394152
Matt Olson37411.20%25.90%0.4300.391150
Seth Brown6910.10%27.50%0.3710.379142
Marcus Semien54511.60%14.30%0.81100.367134
Ramon Laureano3466.40%26.60%0.2490.361129
Matt Chapman49110.20%22.80%0.4510.355126
Robbie Grossman42412.50%17.50%0.7280.30793
Jurickson Profar3998.80%14.50%0.670.28679
Chad Pinder1914.20%25.70%0.1600.2875
Stephen Piscotty3018.00%22.30%0.3620.27269
Josh Phegley2395.00%21.80%0.2300.26666
Khris Davis3837.30%30.80%0.2400.25256

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DraftKings Showdown

Obviously, you are going to want both starting pitchers in all your lineups. The big decision is the Captain spot. I would find a cheap player that steadily produces fantasy points and reserve this spot for him. This allows you the spending power to pretty much have your way with bats. Here is a screenshot of two of my Showdown lineups for tonight as an example.

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This one seems easy for me tonight. Scherzer, despite having some recent woes with earned runs allowed, still strikes out batters at an incredible rate. This one is over all the way.

Brandon Woodruff may not go deep into this one but will certainly achieve this over in a matter of three innings.

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Jerry Colvin is a veteran DFS player who has spent several years working in the industry. His repertoire includes writing regular articles for Fantasy Alarm, So Called Fantasy Experts, and Elite Fantasy, as well as making appearances on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, and FNTSY. In his spare time he runs his own bar, record label, and online music store while finding the time to raise six kids.

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