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9/28 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks: A long road home

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9/1 MLB

It is hard to believe this 9/28 MLB DFS slate is the second to last regular season day of MLB. My Dodgers have things firmly in hand, and my hopes of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series are well alive. When each season winds down it leaves me with a feeling of both sadness, and relief. This is a tradition I have watched unfold now for over forty years, and each one leaves me with tears in my eyes, even as a grown man.

With everything pretty much said and done, all the players today are basically playing for personal glory. This makes pitching extremely tough to nail down. The biggest advice I can give to you today is play light and save your bankroll for NFL DFS. Today truly is a crap shoot. So, with Mindset “Leave No Doubt” playing in the background, I bring you my last MLB DFS regular season pitching article.

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On the Defense

I have no clue what is going on tonight with the Tigers at White Sox. The pitching option is not available on FD, but has Reynaldo Lopez slated to start on DK, even though everything I have seen has him slated to pitch the day game. Keep on eye on this one.

Justin Verlander vs. Los Angeles Angels

$11,400 FD / $12,800 DK

My confidence in Verlander’s competitiveness drives this 9/28 MLB DFS play. The Angels with Mike Trout were not the scariest team on most nights, and without him is anything but. Over the last seven days the other guys from Los Angeles are batting a .221 with a pathetic wRC+ of 68. Even Justin’s sub-par numbers versus the Angels this season are better than most pitchers’ good ones. With question marks all over the board tonight he has the highest upside.

Robbie Ray vs. San Diego Padres

$9,300 FD / $10,600 DK

With the Padres striking out 24.8 percent of the time versus LHPs Robbie Ray is a fully loaded 9/28 MLB DFS option. Ray may have allowed four earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing facing San Diego, but he also had 10 strikeouts. Even with a negative ballpark shift in Arizona, for the discount from Verlander, I would have no fear of using him in both cash games and GPPs.

Brett Anderson vs. Seattle Mariners

$6,700 FD / $7,200 DK

The Seattle Mariners are striking out 24.7 percent of the time versus LHPs this season. Anderson also over his last nine starts has only allowed more than three earned runs once. Seattle over the last seven days is striking out 28.7 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 32 while batting .177. I cannot think of a better time to attack them than on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate.

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Detroit Tigers

$6,700 DK

As earlier mentioned, I am not 100 percent sure Lopez is starting the night game, but DK does have him listed. The not so mighty Tigers are striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs while coming in 30th in MLB in both wOBA and wRC+. His last two starts facing Detroit did not go as well as hoped, but he has had major success versus this lineup in the past. I sure hope he pitches on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate because I would love to pair him with Anderson freeing up a ton of salary to spend on hitting tonight.

NameTeamWLIPK/9BB/9HR/9GB%HR/FBERAxFIP
Justin VerlanderAstros20621711.941.741.4136.60%15.50%2.533.24
Robbie RayDiamondbacks12816812.034.331.537.80%19.20%4.283.81
Brett AndersonAthletics1291714.582.531.0554.40%13.60%44.83
Reynaldo LopezWhite Sox9151768.183.271.7434.90%13.90%5.575.39

Check out my other articles right here

On the Attack

We have a Coors Field game on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate, and a lot ownership is going to head towards facing a lefty in Colorado. We do however have a few other sweet stacking options at lower prices.

James Marvel vs. Cincinnati Reds

Talk about a gift on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate. James will do anything but Marvel regardless of who he is facing. In his first three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. The beauty is they let him keep pitching. With nothing to lose at this point I see that trend continuing tonight.

Reds vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Eugenio Suarez4967.50%28.00%0.2710.372127
Aristides Aquino1616.20%24.80%0.2560.358118
Joey Votto42512.50%18.60%0.6730.35113
Derek Dietrich27910.00%23.30%0.4310.348111
Josh VanMeter22611.50%21.20%0.5470.32798
Tucker Barnhart30612.10%22.20%0.5400.31993
Curt Casali1339.00%27.80%0.3200.31489
Freddy Galvis4066.20%26.40%0.2320.3191
Jose Iglesias3953.00%14.20%0.2160.30382
Nick Senzel3047.20%28.30%0.2680.29477
Phillip Ervin1596.30%27.70%0.2330.27966
Michael Lorenzen329.40%28.10%0.3340.27262
Kyle Farmer1223.30%33.60%0.100.2654
Jose Peraza2792.90%16.10%0.1840.25450

Garrett Richards vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Talk about a terrible comeback. Richards has allowed seven earned runs over 5 1/3 innings since his return. Four of them earned runs were in his last start facing this same Diamondbacks team, but the last time was in San Diego. Tonight, he is heading to Arizona and a negative park shift. The D’Backs are in full play on this 9/28 MLB DFS Slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Ketel Marte45410.10%14.10%0.7280.404150
Abraham Almonte3315.20%24.20%0.6300.399147
Kevin Cron575.30%33.30%0.1600.341109
Christian Walker4239.00%27.00%0.3370.341109
Eduardo Escobar4918.60%18.90%0.4540.335105
Alex Avila16219.80%34.60%0.5710.331102
Domingo Leyba2615.40%30.80%0.500.32698
Wilmer Flores1726.40%10.50%0.6100.32598
Tim Locastro1504.70%14.70%0.32160.31894
Adam Jones3575.90%19.00%0.3120.31189
Nick Ahmed4608.00%19.30%0.4270.29780
Carson Kelly26112.30%21.80%0.5600.29679
Jarrod Dyson39510.60%18.50%0.58290.27465
Jake Lamb19412.90%24.20%0.5310.27163
Josh Rojas1159.60%25.20%0.3820.26257
Ildemaro Vargas1565.10%13.50%0.3810.26156
Caleb Joseph323.10%21.90%0.1400.20822

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The reality is Mike Foltynewicz has been incredible lately, and I am also sure that a ton of DFS writers are putting him out there today. My rule as a DFS writer is simple, if I am not going to use a player in my lineup, I will not include them in my article. But he is in a great spot, I just smell regression. Folty has only had eight strikeouts once this season, back on May 31st facing the Tigers. Under all the way.

Steven Matz has achieved these number a few times this season facing the Braves. With everything well in hand for Atlanta, I see some bench playing time today. Over all the way.

The Padres are among the league leaders in strikeouts versus LHPs, this is not a good thing for them. Robbie Ray has a 12.0 K/9, which is a very good thing for him. Over all the way.

Richards will be lucky enough to survive three innings tonight before being sent to the showers. Under.

A word if I may. Thank you to my beautiful wife Jennifer for taking my hand in marriage six years ago today. You put up with endless sports on the TV, loud and obnoxious hardcore music, and my grumpiness on a daily basis. I love you and hope we have many more years together. Happy Anniversary.

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Jerry Colvin is a veteran DFS player who has spent several years working in the industry. His repertoire includes writing regular articles for Fantasy Alarm, So Called Fantasy Experts, and Elite Fantasy, as well as making appearances on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, and FNTSY. In his spare time he runs his own bar, record label, and online music store while finding the time to raise six kids.

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