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Freddie Freeman

MLB DFS Aces and Bases (Apr. 9)

jason mezrahi 2 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today's edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel's five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Washington for Chris Bassitt's first start for his new team -- the New York Mets! But there's no enough rain in the a...

2 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB Premium

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 10/2 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today's edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel's nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!The ugliest weather is in St. Louis, and there's a good shot at a delay or postponement there. Some other trouble spots to be aware of as well, but the Cub...

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/17 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

There are some weather issues tonight but we can exploit that by playing at least one pitchers folks might stay away from becaus e of the PPD threat in Yankee Stadium.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Gerrit Cole($10,100)

Cole was brilliant in his last start and there’s nobody (except possibly Brandon Woodruff) with the upside he carries into this matchup. It’s the Red Sox, so it’s not an easy task, but he’s carried a 33.5% K rate into the All-Star break and could easily hit double digit Ks against this bunch. The only thing that worries me is the weather, so be ready to pivot to Woodward or another high-priced option like Anthony Desclafani in cash games if it gets to be a tighter window of clean weather.

Best GPP Value: Luis Castillo ($8,000)

The price on Castillo does not reflect his consistency this season or the ceiling that he has in MLB DFS. Again — the biggest problem I have with using him is weather, and if the chances for a delay are low enough I’ll take that chance in some GPPs. Castillo struggled with his command all day against the Brewers in his last outing, needing 102 pitches just to get through 5.1IP, but he did rack up 6 Ks. I think he’ll right some of that ship in another crack at this not-very-scary Brewers lineup.

Contrarian GPP Play: Nathan Eovaldi ($9,400)

Eovaldi handles the Yankees quite well, scoring 46 points (June 4 outing @NYY: 6.0 IP, 7 Ks, 1 ER) and 48 points (June 28 outing vs. NYY: 7.2 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER) in his last two appearances facing the Bombers — who are missing some firepower tonight and are still stocked with plenty of right-handed batters. Adam Strangis discusses some of that upside in his must-read 7/17 Starting Rotation article, and I’m buying into that upside as a reasonably priced GPP option. Ownership should be low and I still think Eovaldi could get to double digit strikeouts as long as they finish this before the rain comes.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack (Outside Coors): San Diego Padres

The Dodgers in Coors Field are going to be the highest owned stack, but let’s consider the Padres. It’s fun to pick on Patrick Corbin, and the red-hot Padres lineup looks ready to go again tonight — but only if the weather cooperates. The smart-money weather sharps are projecting a late start and completed game, but we’ll have to double check before lineup lock to see if that’s still the case. Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,300), Manny Machado ($3,800), Tommy Pham ($2,900) and Wil Myers ($2,500) into my stack would be the top priority.

Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels

There’s no threat of bad weather and the Angels are loaded with value in this matchup against hittable Yusei Kikuchi. Aside from the mopre expensive Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) and Jared Walsh ($3,500), we can find lots of value in David Fletcher ($2,900), Max Stassi ($2,800) and Taylor Ward ($2,500). I’d probably try a few different combinations to mix things up, but I like that five-player pool of bats on this “other” LA team tonight.

Contrarian Stack: Atlanta Braves

I’m not convinced the Braves won’t just rock Josh Fleming off the mound early tonight and I’m really interested in starting the big righty bats, including switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,700), Dansby Swanson ($3,300) and Austin Riley ($3,100), with lefty 1B Freddie Freeman ($4,100) finishing off the four-man stack. Ownership will be low but these guys have massive upside in this matchup. Catcher Kevan Smith is also really cheap at $2,200.

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/12 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s monster 14-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 4:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The weather concerns in this slate are sparse and minor, and we shouldn’t be concerned about any delays that could impact the pitchers we’re targeting today.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

There’s definitely part of me who wants to roster Trevor Bauer, and the Dodgers RHP is certainly worth a look on DK at a discount, but on FD, Burnes makes the most sense as top dog, as he possesses the most strikeout upside on the slate. While some simulations actually have Bauer projected for a higher total tonight (even WinDaily’s model gives Bauer the slight value edge — likely due to the TEX team K rate of 26.8% vs. RHP), the new crackdown on foreign substances has had a detrimental effect on the K numbers of a few pitchers, “Tricky Trevor” included. Burnes, as Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 6/12 Starting Rotation article, is coming off a monster start where he racked up 13K and 70 FD points. He’s a top five MLB pitcher and FanDuel’s scoring allows him and his 18.5% swinging-strike rate (a metric that ranks behind only Jacob deGrom this season) the chance at 60+ each and every night he takes the mound. We’ll have to get a little creative with our hitting stacks to build something we can be confident with, but Burnes is a great option for cash games and I’ll be using him in some GPPs as well.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

For the second straight week, Muskrat Joe takes our top value spot. He was serviceable in that role last week with a 10 K outing, but he did get knocked around a little bit to the tune of 9 hits and 3 ER — and the pedestrian 5.0 IP kept him from receiving the crucial quality start bonus we need from our SP. Adam and I both like him for today’s slate, and the fact that he’s kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP under 3.00 in this career year make me happy to recommend him against the Mets. who strike out at a team rate of 23.7%. Musgrove is carrying a career-high 34.2% K rate and limiting his free passes, and the Mets don’t have their usually lefty firepower without a few of their better offensive players. Joe’s unlucky 6/5 start still yielded 36 FD points, and this time he’s the same price and should eclipse the 40 mark.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

I was actually a little giddy when I saw that Adam was on Taillon as a GPP value play today, because he’s one of the first options I considered when I thought “contrarian play” for this slate. Taillon is effective against right-handed bats and the Phillies (who have a bunch of them) strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB (26.4% — tied with MIA and MIL). I wouldn’t blame anyone for going a little safer with value options like TB LHP Rich Hill ($7,700 vs. BAL), but the Orioles relatively low K rate (20.2%) vs. LHP makes me think he lacks the same upside, value and leverage for GPPs. If we want to stack some of the best bats, we’ll need what Taillon offers in salary relief to get there.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

AS of 11:11 a.m. EST, there’s no line yet on this game, but you’d have to imagine that the high-powered Braves offense is projected for 5+ runs against a 27-year-old rookie making just his second major-league start. Thompson’s minor-league metrics don’t jump off the page and the Braves have just too much firepower to worry about using them. Go with Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and a still-discounted Austin Riley ($2,700) in a four-man stacks, swapping out Albies for value options (and righty mashers) William Contreras ($2,200) and Abraham Almonte ($2,100) if you need the salary savings to get four Braves in your build.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

The Brewers have a bunch of risky but potent hitters in their lineup to go along with the consistently excellent bat of Christian Yelich ($3,800), including Avisail Garcia ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), ~~Luis Urias~~ ($2,700) and Willy Adames ($2,200). Left-handed OF Jace Peterson is also an option at just $2,200. I’m particularly interested in four-man combos that prominently feature Narvaez, Yelich and Vogelbach as a three-man core, with Urias, Garcia, Peterson and Adames alternately making up the fourth Brewer bat. Giddyup!

Update: Luis Urias is sitting this one out.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

The A’s are never all that popular as a team stack on big slates, and today they could be in for an offensive explosion against Jackson Kowar, who carries a 54.00 ERA after one career start — a rocky debut outing against the Angels on Monday. The usual suspects are in play here, from “Mashing” Matt Olson ($3,500) to leadoff hitter ~~Mark Canha~~ ($3,700) and a slew of low-priced options including Tony Kemp (just $2,000!), ~~Jed Lowrie~~ ($2,900) and Sean Murphy ($2,400). I’m also quite enamored with Seth Brown ($2,400) as a risk-reward value option, and I’ll be mixing and matching a few different four-man combinations of these six A’s hitters in my large-field GPP entries.

Update: Both Lowrie and Canha are not starting on Saturday.

Other stacking options: NYY RH bats vs. PHI RHP Vince Velazquez, CIN LH bats vs. COL RHP German Marquez

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/8 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some nasty storms firing up later tonight in the area of the White Sox at Royals game but other than that no major weather concerns for the 7:05 slate.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

The pitching in the main slate is pretty ugly, though you should check out the deep dive Adam Strangis gave us in his 5/8 Starting Rotation piece for more info. Kershaw is the top spend of the main slate and I’ll probably be avoiding Lance Lynn and the chance for a weather-impacted start for the White Sox hurler in Kansas City. I do like one pitcher a lot more for GPP value, but it’s silly to think anyone has higher floor tonight than a future HOFer in Kershaw facing their Pasadena counterparts. The Angels — slightly below league average against lefties — have a low team strikeout rate (second-lowest in baseball at 21.6%), but they also have the lowest projected run total of the 14 teams that encompass this slate. Kershaw got knocked around by the Cubs on May 4 but threw just 39 pitches and should be plenty ready for a MLB DFS rebound on short rest.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($7,900)

Another solid pitcher looking to bounce back from a bad outing, Anderson didn’t fare well against the high contact Blue Jays in his last start, failing to get into one of his customary bat-missing grooves. But the Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in the majors this year (27.9%) and that’s what I’m looking for on FanDuel, where “Ks are King” for SP in MLB DFS. Anderson whiffs over 10 batters per 9 IP, and he’s been plagued by an abnormally high HR/FB rate so far this season. Expect him to notch himelf 7-8 KS and stand a very good shot at a quality start/win with his Atlanta Braves standing at -170 to -180 favorites at home.

Contrarian GPP Value: Garrett Richards ($7,400)

Richards has shown the ability to strike out 10+ batters in an outing, which he accomplished against the Mets on April 27 in a monster 58-point FanDuel performance. The Orioles aren’t the pushovers they were a couple years ago, but the team K rate is still 24.6% and their measly team wRC+ of 89 is uninspiring from a DFS perspective. If you’re looking for an off-the-radar play with some upside as a pivot from chalk and the obvious GPP value that Anderson offers, Richards could be a fine MLB DFS leverage play who’s capable of 40-50 FP tonight. Over his past 12 IP, he’s struck out 17 batters to just one BB.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. PHI RHP Vince Velasquez

The Braves have the highest total of the slate (5 runs) and while Vince Velasquez has been a dynamic pitcher in the past, his 2021 numbers aren’t great. His painfully high walk rate (6.38 BB/9) and high FIP/xFIP (6.13/4.62) could be a huge problem against an admittedly circular Braves lineup that features some of the best batters in baseball vs. RHP, including Ronald Acuna ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,000), a switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,300) and value-laden Austin Riley ($2,500). There’s also Marcell Ozuna ($3,500) and young C William Contreras ($2,800). The top MLB DFS guys from Atlanta are not chap, so I’ll probably make some different combos of four-man stacks with Anderson and a few with Garrett Richards.

Value Stack: Houston Astros vs. TOR LHP Steven Matz

I thought the Astros would be more expensive, honestly, but the pricing hasn’t caught up to just how hot Alex Bregman ($3,600) is getting. Bregman’s .420 wOBA this season vs. LHP is a number that’s actually come down since 2019 — when it was .430 from 2018-19. The team’s wRC+ is 124 over the past 14 days, a mark equaled only by the Yankees, who have seen their bats heat up behind a rejuvenated Giancarlo Stanton. Yordan Alvarez ($3,700) is a lefty who mashes lefties and both Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900) and Carlos Correa ($3,100) have massive HR upside in a lineup that produces lots of runs. Did I mention that Jose Altuve ($3,400) has four hits including a HR) in his last nine AB? Even Michael Brantley ($3,000) works just fine as a contrarian LHB play as the No. 2 hitter in a 1-4 stack here, and nobody’s price is too outrageous.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles LHP Zac Lowther

We know that Bregman mashes lefties, but only Nolan Arenado (.460 wOBA, but with the boost of Mile-High home games) and J.D. Martinez and his .457 wOBA ($4,300) have done more against LHP since 2017. Mrtinex makes foe a great anchor in a four-man Red Sox stack that also includes Rafael Devers ($3,500) — who boats a .410 wOBA in 30 AB vs. LHP this season — Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) and the sneaky Marwin Gonzalez ($2,400), if he gets another spot near the top of the lineups tonight. Stay tuned to see who gets the final nod in the Red Sox starting nine hitters, but a core of Martinez, Devers and Bogaerts is a great start against the inexperienced Lowther, who is bound to struggle against the Sox tonight in Baltimore.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/7 MLB DFS Four-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s a busy Monday in the MLB postseason, so let’s jump right into the 10/7 DFS picks for the four-game slate and the featured Showdown contests on DraftKings.

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The games: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (1:05 p.m. EST), Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (3:07 p.m.), Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (6:40 p.m.) and New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (8:40 p.m. EST)

SP Strategy and Picks

There should be enough value in the bats to allow us to use my two favorite pitchers in this slate.

SP1: Luis Severino (DK $8,600, FD $8,400)

It’s been about a year since Severino took the mound in theplayoffs, the last time a disastrous outing against the Red Sox in which he gaveup six runs in three-plus innings in the ALDS, but this is his redemption tour.He’s been electric (12.75 K/9, 2.13 FIP) since returning from injury and shouldbe fresh, last pitching in a three-inning,72-pitch outing against the Rangers on Sept. 28. Sevy is affordable and makesfor a fine SP1 if he can throw about 80-85 pitches.

SP2:Zack Greinke (DK $9,100, FD 10,300)

Greinke was 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts after beingacquired from the D-backs in a July trade, going 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA for the2019 season. He even carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning of his finalregular-season start on Sept. 25 in Seattle and shouldn’t need his best stuffto dispatch this Rays team that’s been struggling at the plate and has animplied run total under 4.

Other options: Dallas Keuchel/Julio Teheran (value), Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer

10/7 DFS Hitters

10/7 DFS C: Brian McCann (DK $3,200, FD$2,600)

He’s cheap and has power upside, with a .343 xWOBA against RHPs over his last two seasons. McCann has plenty of playoff experience and already has a couple hits this series. The Braves are a talented bunch and McCann is a fearless team leader. Pivot: Gary Sanchez

10/7 DFS 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL (DK$4,200, FD $3,900)

We’regetting a legendary playoff performer at a huge discount here, and he’s facingthe team with the worst pitching – so that’s a huge reason I’m leaning towardGoldschmidt. He put up somesolid numbers and metrics (145 wRC+ and .313 ISO) this season and is mypreferred 1B on this slate. Pivot: Freddie Freeman

10/7 DFS 2B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,800,3B on FD $3,900)

I’ve toutedhim before in this column and he’s been awesome thus far in the postaseason,with four hits (three XBH) in nine ABs and a homer and 4 RBI. There are someother folks I want to play at 3B on DK, so plug him in at second base on thatsite and UTIL on FD. Pivot: Max Muncy

10/7 DFS 3B: Anthony Rendon, WAS (DK $4,500,FD $4,300)

Plugging in Alex Bregman here is fine, but Charlie Morton should help to limit the amount of damage the Astros do in this game, so I’m using Rendon against LHP Rich Hill. Rendon has three hits in his last two games and Hill isn’t the dominating force he was in previous seasons. With a .289 ISO against LHPs over his last couple of seasons, Rendon — who was REALLY hot when the season started and could be getting going again — has me stuck on him here. Pivot: Gio Urshela/Josh Donaldson

10/7 DFS SS: Didi Gregorius, NYY (DK $3,900,FD $3,300)

When Didi gets hot, he’s a dangerous hitter, and we get him at a very affordable price. His grand slam in Game Two put the contest out of reach for the Twins and gives Sir Didi the requisite confidence to set aside some of his struggles and produce in this circular Yankees lineup. Pivot: Danby Swanson

10/7 DFS OF: Nick Markakis, ATL (DK $3,500,FD $2,800)

Spending down a little more at the corner infield positions allows you some more expensive OF, but I’ll be looking for some value in my outfield and Markakis is the perfect play at this price. He had a double in Game 1 and sits nicely in the Braves lineup between the dangerous Josh Donaldson and lefty-mashing Matt Joyce. Solid numbers against RHPs (.817 OPS, .387 xWOBA over his last two seasons) clinch it for me. Pivot: Michael Brantley/Max Kepler

10/7 DFS OF: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (DK $3,900,FD $3,700)

Stanton is hitless in the postseason and is still scoring fantasy points – largely because pitchers are afraid of throwing him anything near the strike zone and hes drawing walks, even with the bases loaded! The big fella is still getting in good ABs and is ready to bust out facing an overmatched Jake Odorizzi. Pivot: Aaron Judge/Eddie Rosario

10/7 DFS OF: Brett Gardner, NYY (DK $4,100,FD $3,000)

Lets go right back to the well with Gardy, who’s been hot at the plate over the past few weeks and offers immense upside in the heart of the Yankees lineup. He gets us just under the salary line at his reasonable price point and will be looking to finish off this series with the help of his lively bat. Pivot: Marwin Gonzalez/Josh Reddick

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10/7 DFS Featured Single-Game (1:05 EST on FD)

Hitters only – so stack up the best Astros bats and look for valuewithin the more pesky Rays. There’s just a lot of ways to go here, but I’lllikely be using a top Astros hitter in my MVP slot.

Sample FD lineup:

MVP (2x) – J. Altuve ($8,500) or Yordan Alvarez ($8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($9,500)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)

UTIL – Austin Meadows ($7,000) or Yuri Gurriel ($6,500)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,500) or Tommy Pham ($6,500)

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10/7 DFS Featured Showdown (8:40 p.m. on DK)

I may fade the pitchers in this game entirely given the probableextensive use of both bullpens. I’m fine using Severino in the classic format,but he might be a little overpriced for Showdown.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Balanced w/hitters from both teams)

Captain (1.5x) – D. Gregorius ($10,500)

UTIL – N. Cruz ($10,600) or Aaron Judge ($9,800)

UTIL – E. Rosario ($7,600)

UTIL – M. Kepler ($7,400)

UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)

UTIL – G. Urshela ($6,600)

If you’re hell-bent on using Sevy and stacking the best NYY bats,we can go with him at a UTIL spot and use Aroldis Chapman for one of the UTILspots as well.

Sample with Severino at UTIL:

Captain (1.5x) – A. Judge ($14,700)

UTIL – L. Severino ($10,400)

UTIL – D.J. LeMahieu ($9,400)

UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)

UTIL – J. Cave ($5,200)

UTIL – A. Chapman ($3,000)

I’d play around with a few different variations at the CPT spot, usingsome inexpensive Yankees bats who are just as likely to come up in big spots asthe more noted sluggers.

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/3 MLB DFS Two-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re into the exciting MLB postseason and looking at some 10/3 MLB DFS picks for the two-game slate and featured Showdown on DraftKings (8:37 EST). Join us as we detail some strategies for lineup construction and taking down the big cash prize.

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10/3 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK & FD)

The games: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (5:02 p.m. EST) & Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers (8:37 p.m. EST)

10/3 DFS SP General Strategy

The one-game playoffs are over, so SP1s are much more important, could rack up some big-time points and will set the tone for the entire roster construction. There’s plenty of SP2 value here.

SP1: Walker Buehler, LAD vs. WAS (DK $9,600, FD $10,200)

The pricing is fair on both sites considering Buehler’sceiling, although he’ll have a shorter leash than the regular season. Still –the 29.2 K% stands out as a number we can latch onto and invest in, along withthe 12.2% HR/FB rate. The young ace has been the Dodgers’ most consistentstarter in 2019 and is your best bet at SP1. Ownership will be massive and I’llmake sure to leave him out of 1-2/10 GPP lineups, but we can find ways todifferentiate later.

SP2: Dallas Keuchel, ATL vs. STL (DK $6,800, FD $8,100)

I’m not interested in Miles Mikolas and the small discount on FD, and he’s just too risky against the Braves lineup at their home park in Atlanta. I may slap in both Keuchel and Mikolas in the aforementioned 1-2/10 lineups on DK and stack the biggest bats from the hitting options below, but Keuchel’s postseason record (4-2, 3.31 ERA in nine starts and 10 total appearances) is something I’m drawn to. Keuchel’s .219 BAA and 3.38 SIERA in the postseason further solidify my interest.

10/3 DFS Hitters

10/3 DFS C: Yadier Molina, STL (DK $3,800, FD $2,700)

You’re paying for experience (343 postseason plate appearances) and the highest floor of the available catchers. I’m probably not playing catchers on FD but you get a real discount with Molina. Brian McCann ($3,400 on DK) has legit home run upside but poor postseason numbers in 126 plate appearances (.170/.254/.304 slash). Will Smith is neutralized a bit by LHPs and Kurt Suzuki is a contrarian dart throw for large-field GPPs.

10/3 DFS 1B: Cody Bellinger, LAD (DK $5,000)

The price is right and he’s got the biggest upside excluding Paul Goldschmidt, who might get pretty chalky. I’m not worried about lefty-lefty and Corbin may not last long. Bellinger is an OF on FD and OF eligible on DK. Plug him in there. Pivot: Freddie Freeman, ATL (DK $4,700, FD $4,200). I’m concerned about the bone spur in his elbow and may choose to avoid him here. Freddie is risky but has a favorable matchup against Mikolas.

10/3 DFS 2B: Ozzie Albies, ATL (DK $4,500, FD $3,700)

Tommy Edman ($5,300 on DK) is 2B/3B eligible on DK and makes for an interesting pivot against the LHP, but I like Albies hitting in the 2-spot here despite his splits favoring him versus lefties. If he’s chalky, I’ll look to use the more expensive Edman. Pivots: Edman, Asdrubal Cabrera

10/3 DFS 3B: Justin Turner, LAD (DK $3,900, FD $3,200)

The 34-year-old is nursing a tight back, but he’s assured us he will play in Game 1 and is coming off a solid season where he tied his career high with 27 homers – while driving in 67 runs and slashing .290/.372/.509 in 135 games. I’m taking the plunge and hoping for low ownership because of the back.

10/3 DFS SS: Chris Taylor, LAD (DK $3,600)

Taylor is a relatively cheap OF on FD ($2,800) but the price on Dk is solid too. Remember when this guy just couldn’t get it going early in the season? After his dreadful April when he slashed .171/.263/.257, Taylor settled in, and he’s got plenty of postseason experience with a 139 wRC+ in 30 games.

10/3 DFS OF: Kike Hernandez (DK $3,300)

Hernandez is a $2,900 second baseman on FD, but he’s just $3,300 on Dk and the price can get you a full Dodgers stack without too much trouble. He kills southpaws (career 123 wRC+ and .213 ISO vs. LHPs) and he’s got five HRs in 103 postseason plate appearances. Pivot: Matt Joyce

10/3 DFS OF: Juan Soto (DK $4,100, FD $3,800)

I’m buying Soto despite the tough matchup, planning on him coming up in a big spot late in the game, and delivering. Soto showed us something in the Wild Card game the small sample 0-for-5 BvP against Buehler will keep his ownership low. The price is cheap and if he fits, I’ll use him. Pivots: Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna

10/3 DFS OF: A.J. Pollock, LAD (DK $3,700, FD $3,400)

He rounds out my Dodgers stack on DK and makes sense as a third outfielder on FD. Pollock sports a blistering 136 wRC+ against LHPs and a 154 wRC+ at home vs. LHPs. Pivot: Dexter Fowler

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10/3 DFS FeaturedShowdown (8:37 p.m. on DK)

I’ll have some shares with Buehler as CPT and a few inexpensivebats and bench players (Gavin Lux, Brian Dozier are both viable bench optionsin large-field Showdown GPPs), but the majority of lineups will feature Pollock,Turner, Taylor and Hernandez at CPT with shares of Soto, Howie Kendrick, VictorRobles and Cabrera for the Nats.

Sample Showdown Lineup:

Captain (1.5x) – Pollock ($10,800)

UTIL – Buehler ($11,600)

UTIL – J. Turner ($7,600)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($7,400)

UTIL – C. Taylor ($6,600)

UTIL – V. Robles ($6,000)

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10/3 DFS Featured Single-Game (8:37 EST on FD)

We don’t have to worry about pitchers on FD, so we can putour best hitter right in the MVP slot and take some chances after that. And Ifwe stick with Pollock as MVP in 2/5 GPP lineups, we’ll get low ownership and anadvantage on the field.

Sample FD lineup (with $0 left):

MVP (2x) – Pollock ($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bellinger ($9,000)

UTIL – C. Taylor ($4.500)

UTIL – T. Turner ($8,500)

UTIL – K. Hernandez ($6,000)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/12 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Big Bats for Thursday

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today is thirsty Thursday, and I’m going to quench you with some easily digestible lineup selections for the 9/12 DFS main slate, which kicks off at 7:05 and has just seven games. We’ve got DFS stacks, one-offs and some standout options for GPPs, including one squad that’s bound to break through against a veteran hurler with limited stuff. Let’s go win some green!

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9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Atlanta Braves at Drew Smyly

I’m going GPP before cash here and picking on a pitcher with a 2.16% HR/FB rate in Drew Smyly. You can stack Coors all you want in the afternoon slates (what’s with the 2-1 games, fellas?), but I’m looking to a talented Braves lineup that’s loaded with powerful right-handed bats and some left-handed hitters like Freddie Freeman who don’t crumble when a southpaw is on the mound. Atlanta carries a .331 team wOBA against LHPs and Smyly is eminently hittable. The classic 1-5 stack is in play, as are platoon bats Austin Riley (.291/.375/.745 slash) and GPP favorite Adam Duvall (if he cracks the lineup).

LosAngeles Dodgers at Dylan Bundy

Yup, I’m going right back to the Dodgers despite an anemicperformance last night against John Means, who’s a pretty good pitcher in hisown right. Dylan Bundy is a lot easier to attack from both sides of the plate(.398 xwOBA vs. LHBs and .391 vs. RHBs), so I’m not concerned about keepinganybody off. Lefties Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger and Matt Beaty are all duefor offensive breakouts and Gavin Lux ($2,600 on DK, $2,800 on FD) and CoreySeager ($4,500 on DK, $3,600 on FD) are plenty affordable as well.

Houston Astros vs. Homer Bailey

His name is Homer, and these are the power-hitting Astros. I’m not trying to oversimplify things, because there’s plenty of data to support a blitz on Bailey –including a park shift that favors Houston over the veteran right-hander. Bailey has yielded a .429 xOBA to righties since 2018 when pitching his home games in Oakland and Kansas City, and the Astros are at home and have bats from both sides of the plate that I want exposure to here, including George Springer, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. Value options include Aledmys Diaz and Abraham Toro, not to mention inexpensive catcher Robinson Chirinos.

9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Washington Nationals at Kyle Gibson

Boston Red Sox at Clay Buchholz

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jhoulys Chacin

9/12 DFS Hitting Catcher

Francisco Cervelli, ATL at PHI

DK ($2,700) FD ($2,300)

This is a pure value play considering the Braves have so much talent throughout their lineup and Cervelli does a pretty good job (.414 xwOBA) vs. LHPs. He’s a cheap fifth batter in Braves stacks on DK and makes for an inexpensive utility or C-1B play on FD — if you can stomach rostering just three other bats from this team.

9/12 DFSHitting First Baseman

Mitch Moreland, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($2,800)

You’re getting a great matchup in the middle of a stacked lineup for cheap price with Moreland. Big Mitch has BvP covered in a 4-for-8 small sample against Buchholz, who’s he’s homered against, and there’s plenty to like about going with this sneaky lefty at your 1B spot in a crowded GPP field focused on bigger names. Moreland has double-dinger potential and makes for a fine one-off or part of a Sox mini-stack.

9/12 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,300)

Going right back to the well with Solak, who’s made me look good in this spot, and doesn’t command a very high price. The Rangers are probably only worth considering for a contrarian, large-field GPP stack because they’ve struggled against lefties this season (just a .308 wOBA and 82wRC+), but Solak offers a .379 ISO against LHPs and the venue is ripe for hitting. I’m not scared of Brendan McKay, even though he’s been able to whiff some bats here and there, and Solak is in the heart of the Rangers lineup with plenty of run-producing opportunities.

9/12 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Josh Donaldson, ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,500)

Donaldson is historically good against LHPs with a career xwOBA of .XXX and he’s destroyed Smyly in 19 career ABs, including nine hits, three HRs and a 1.629 OPS. Whatever sample size you’re looking at, he’s a great play in a hitter’s park in that potent Atlanta lineup. He and Acuna will be the main focus of my Braves stacks.

9/12 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,600)

Even after a recent two-homer night, the price on Seager isaffordable and the slick young shortstop has resumed the No. 2 slot in the Dodgersorder. I’ve mentioned my affinity for attacking Bundy in Camden Yards, and thisslate provides an opportunity to get one of the highest upside shortstops (rightthere with Xander Bogaerts) at a cut rate.

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9/12 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Andrew Benintendi, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

The Red Sox have been slumping at the plate, but Benintendi’s numbers over the past two seasons against RHBs (.405 xwOBA) make me excited to play him against Buchholz. There aren’t too many outfielders at this price point with as much run-producing upside.

Michael Brantley, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($4,300) FD ($4,000)

I have no qualms about you stacking the Astros outfield in its entirety and using both Alvarez and Springer, but if there’s one bat I’d lean towards as a one-off, especially if I’m building an expensive stack elsewhere, it’s Brantley. He’s always a little too cheap and offers plenty of upside with excellent numbers at home (.381 wOBA) and against RHPs (.207 ISO).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,100)

Acuna has a .488 xwOBA and .277 ISO vs. LHPs this season andremains the premier leadoff hitter in the NL. He’s an essential part of myBraves stacks, sometimes gets ignored because of his lofty price tag, and isplayable in both cash games and GPPs for his solid floor and soaring upside.

Additional options:

C: Robinson Chirinos ($3,800 DK), Reese McGuire ($3,300 DK)

1B: Jesus Aguilar ($2,800 FD), Matt Adams ($3,400 DK)

2B: Cavan Biggio ($4,200 DK) Brad Miller ($3,000 DK)

3B: Kyle Seager ($4,300 DK), Eugenio Suarez ($4,700 DK)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,000 DK), Xander Bogaerts (4,900 DK)

OF: Aristides Aquino ($3,700 FD), Philip Ervin ($3,300 DK),Jonathan Davis ($2,600 DK), Danny Santana ($4,700 DK) Jay Bruce (GPP option at 3,800on DK)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/11 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

5 years ago

written by

On this 9/11 MLB DFS slate I would like us all to take a moment to reflect on the memories of all the lives lost on this day in America. I remember clearly where I was on that fateful day, and what I was doing. The confusion, the fear, the total disbelief. My heart goes out to all the families of the victims, may you find some peace in knowing we are all behind you always.

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On the Defense

This 9/11 MLB DFS slate is rather odd in the sense that for the first time in recent memory I will not be using any bottom of the barrel SP2s on DK. I just do not see any with high enough upside.

Sonny Gray vs. Seattle Mariners

$10,200 FD / $10,600 DK

What do you get when you cross a high strikeout upside pitcher with reverse road splits, who benefits from a positive park shift, facing a team that strikes out over 25 percent of the time versus RHPs? The answer on this 9/11 MLB DFS slate is Sonny Gray, who has allowed four earned runs over his last seven starts.

StephenStrasburg vs. Minnesota Twins

$10,500 FD / $11,400 DK

I know it is hard to swallow taking anyone facing the Twins on this 9/11 MLB DFS slate. After all, they absolutely crush RHPs, and LHPs don’t care for them much either. The thing is, not every pitcher is Strasburg. Over his last 20 innings pitched he has racked up 31 strikeouts. Even if a few runs are allowed here, the Twins still strike out out 21.1 percent of the time versus RHPs, opening the door for huge DFS upside.

AdamPlutko vs. Los Angeles Angels

$7,700 FD / $8,800 DK

The Angels are a very unpredictable to team to attack in DFS, and this 9/11 MLB DFS slate is no different. They are 13^th in MLB versus RHPs in wOBA, and 23rd in strikeouts. When you combine these factors, they all spell stay away. Regardless, in Plutko’s last start facing the Angels he went 5 1/3 innings allowing one earned run while sending four batters to the bench in dismay. I expect similar numbers here again tonight.

ReynaldoLopez vs. Kansas City Royals

$8,600 FD / $9,800 DK

Reynaldo Lopez may not be the greatest thing since the grilled cheese sandwich, but he does offer some upside on this 9/11 MLB DFS slate. Although he has had his ups and downs versus the Royals this season, the last time he faced them he had eight strikeouts over six innings, allowing one earned run. In his last start he pitched a complete game, allowing one earned run with 11 strikeouts versus Cleveland.

Name	Team	W	L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	16	6	185	10.8	2.29	1.02	50.10%	15.40%	3.5	3.19
Sonny Gray	Reds	10	6	157.1	10.35	3.43	0.86	51.40%	12.50%	2.75	3.65
Reynaldo Lopez	White Sox	9	12	162	8.28	3.33	1.5	34.20%	12.30%	5.17	5.34
Adam Plutko	Indians	6	4	93.1	6.08	1.83	1.93	32.00%	14.50%	4.44	5.52

On theAttack

There are the obvious stacks pretty much any time there is a Coors Field game, and this 9/11 MLB DFS slate is no different. It is going to be rather difficult to bat load tonight unless you completely fade decent pitching.

ZachEflin vs. Atlanta Braves

With everyone trying to fit Cardinals, Rockies, and Dodgers in their lineups on this 9/11 MLB DFS slate, let’s look elsewhere. Eflin has a 19.06 ERA over 5 2/3 innings vs. Atlanta this year. Despite pitching well in his recent starts I see a major blow up here tonight.

Notable Bats

Freddie Freeman is a top play most nights and tonightis no different. He is posting a .424 wOBA versus RHPs this season with a wRC+of 162.

Josh Donaldson is 6-for-9 with a home run and six RBIversus Eflin. He also is sporting a .393 wOBA versus RHPs on the season.

Matt Joyce is batting .385 with two home runs over the last seven days and carries a .374 wOBA versus RHPs.

Ryan Weber vs. Toronto Blue Jays

In the words of my stepdaughter Hailee, “oof”. Even though the Blue Jays are 26^th in MLB versus RHPs, they still offer a bevy of runs on any given night. With Weber returning from Triple-A tonight, I am sprinkling in Jays bats on this 9/11 MLB DFS slate. Keep in mind, this is more of a boom-or-bust GPP play.

Notable Bats

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has the lowest strikeoutpercentage of any daily starter by far at 17.4 percent versus RHP. He also hasa .365 wOBA against as well.

Rowdy Tellez homered in his only AB versus Shawarynthis season, and I see another huge night tonight batting in the five spot.

Randall Grichuk fares better versus LHPs, but he does offer HR upside facing scrub pitchers at a discount.

Name	Team	PA	BB%	K%	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA R	wOBA L
Freddie Freeman	Braves	477	14.30%	16.10%	6	0.423	0.617	1.041	0.424	0.324
Josh Donaldson	Braves	460	14.10%	23.00%	3	0.383	0.567	0.949	0.393	0.364
Matt Joyce	Braves	173	15.00%	19.70%	0	0.393	0.483	0.876	0.374	0.377
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Blue Jays	318	9.40%	17.60%	0	0.368	0.498	0.866	0.365	0.329
Randal Grichuk	Blue Jays	374	4.80%	28.10%	1	0.265	0.432	0.697	0.29	0.284
Rowdy Tellez	Blue Jays	245	6.50%	28.20%	0	0.273	0.411	0.684	0.284	0.322

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

The Indians are 19th in MLB in strikeout versus RHPs, I am going under with Peters, failing to reach this number in three of his last four starts.

The last time Plutko faced the Angels he had four strikeouts. I see this easily happening again. Over all the way.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks and Picks: It’s Easy to Be Brave

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today we’ll be examining a fine 12-game Tuesday 9/3 DFS MLB slate (one without a super-obvious Coors Field game), looking to embrace the variance, find some compelling stacks to focus on in our lineup builds, and list some viable hitters in GPPs – as well as some additional plays that might be worth a punt or contrarian pivot.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

AtlantaBraves vs. Wilmer Font/T.J. Zeuch

The Braves have the highest implied total (6 runs) on the 12-game 7:05 slate, with the Dodgers close behind. Both Font and Zeuch (the proposed primary reliever who’ll be making his MLB debut) are RHPs — so it’s safe to stack the 1-5 hitters as there are no weak links in the bunch. Don’t overthink this one – the Braves have punished RHPs, are a better offense at home this season, and have plenty of value bats if you’re building a non-traditional stack.

LosAngeles Dodgers vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez

The Dodgers have six hitters in their projected lineup with ISOmarks north of .200 against RHP, including some of the best xwOBA marks on the slate(Will Smith at .487 and Cody Bellinger at .446). Feel free to attack Chi Chi’sterrible splits against lefties regardless of the barely beneficial shift awayfrom Coors. Joc Pederson (who you will have to double check on because he leftMonday’s game after a leaping catch at the wall), Corey Seager, Bellinger, A.J.Pollock and Matt Beaty should be the core of this group.

ClevelandIndians vs. Dylan Cease

It’s been a few days, but the Indians bats came alive last night and knocked around Ross Detwiler, and the matchup against Dylan Cease shouldn’t offer too much resistance. Cease is vulnerable to both RHBs and lefties, so it doesn’t really matter which side of the plate your stacked players hit from – just make sure you’re building around a core of Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado and Carlos Santana. You have myriad options for additional power bats in the heart of the lineup and a bit further down (Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Jakob Bauers), so it might be worth it to build some variety if you’re multi-entering in GPPs.

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Minnesota Twins at Rick Porcello

Boston Red Sox vs. Randy Dobnak

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Matthew Strahm

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Dereck Rodriguez

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Sandy Alcantara

9/3 DFS Hitting Catcher

JasonCastro, MIN at BOS

DK ($3,700) FD($2,400)

We’re looking for some value at catcher given some of the prices of these bigger bats in the stacks we need to fit, and Castro is exactly the type of hitter we’re looking for – a sneaky option with ample power and plenty of bats surrounding him. If the Twins roll out Castro against Porcello, I’d be comfortable with the BvP data (5-for-13 with a HR) and overall against RHP (.476 xwOBA).

9/3 DFS Hitting First Baseman

JoshBell, PIT vs. MIA

DK ($5,100) FD($4,400)

You’re going to get Josh Bell at a very low ownership, and while the $5,100 price seems oppressive, the Pirates still sport a decent implied total and Bell (.426 xwOBA vs. RHP) might fly under the radar in this slate. The Pirates aren’t the safest stack, but Bell stands out as an excellent one-off, especially if you’re steering clear of Freddie Freeman and looking for a more contrarian play.

9/3 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

KoltenWong, STL vs. SF

DK($4,300) FD ($3,100)

Wong is red-hot at the plate, with a seven-game hitting streak and a triple in three straight games (the record is five, by Chief Wilson in 1912). A streaky hitter who’s having an excellent second half (.381/.462/.545 in 42 games since the break), Wong’s got an affordable price tag and could be banging out some more extra base hits from that 2-slot against the Giants.

9/3 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

RafaelDevers, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,400) FD($4,100)

Devers and the Red Sox are a formidable stack against just about anyopposing pitcher, but this is an especially tasty matchup with rookie Randy Dobnakon the mound for the Twins. Since Anthony Rendon and Alex Bregman aren’t in idealspots Tuesday, I’m rolling with Devers and his obscene metrics vs. RHP (.429xwOBA, .247 ISO). He’s never far from a run-producing spot and he’s got all theprotection he needs surrounded by the Boston sluggers.

9/3 DFS Hitting Shortstop

AdalbertoMondesi, KC vs. DET

DK ($5,200) FD($3,100)

Mondesiobviously missed being a part of the Royals lineup, because he went 4-for-5with two runs scored and three SB in the Royals’ 6-4 comeback win against theOrioles on Sunday. He’s facing a LHP in Daniel Norris on Tuesday and he’sclearly recovered from his shoulder injury – and while the price on DK issteep, he’s very affordable on FD.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Outfielders

MattJoyce, ATL vs. TOR

DK ($3,900) FD($2,400)

Joyceis a classic value GPP play because of his power potential and assault on RHP(.392 xwOBA). It’s also helpful that both the projected starter and primaryreliever are right handers – which could give him an extra AB or two before he mustface a lefty out of the bullpen or get pulled for a pinch hitter or defensivereplacement. In a search for some bargains to offset the rest of the Bravesstack, Joyce could be a key cog.

MaxKepler, MIN at BOS

DK ($5,300) FD($3,500)

MaxKepler is batting leadoff for one of the top stacks of the day, so he’s definitelya fly ball hitter to build around despite his steep price tag on DraftKings. He’scoming off a 2-for-5 day in a win over Detroit and is slashing .258/.339/.537with 36 home runs and 90 RBI over 127 games in 2019. He’s an excellent roadhitter (.266/.357/.548) and he’s a real bargain on FanDuel at just $3,500.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. SEA

DK ($4,300) FD($3,100)

It’s always a weather-dependent recommendation to use or fade batsin Wrigley, so make sure there’s not a stiff breeze blowing in before youcommit to Schwarber here. The enigmatic Schwarber does his best work at homevs. RHP (125 wRC+ in 2019, .250/.355/.545 slash), and while he’s not the besthitter in high leverage spots (65 wRC+), that’s a figure that’s bound toimprove. King Felix is not the pitcher he once was, and it’s a fine spot forlefty mashers against him.

Additional 9/3 DFS hitting options (by position):

C: Carson Kelly, Chris Herrmann (value)

1B: Anthony Rizzo, Matt Olson

2B: Brock Holt (value), Eduardo Escobar

3B: Matt Carpenter, Abraham Toro

SS: Corey Seager, Nick Ahmed

OF: Matt Beaty, Dexter Fowler, Nick Castellanos, Adam Jones. Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado

5 years ago 0 comment

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