Cole was brilliant in his last start and there’s nobody (except possibly Brandon Woodruff) with the upside he carries into this matchup. It’s the Red Sox, so it’s not an easy task, but he’s carried a 33.5% K rate into the All-Star break and could easily hit double digit Ks against this bunch. The only thing that worries me is the weather, so be ready to pivot to Woodward or another high-priced option like Anthony Desclafani in cash games if it gets to be a tighter window of clean weather.
Best GPP Value: Luis Castillo ($8,000)
The price on Castillo does not reflect his consistency this season or the ceiling that he has in MLB DFS. Again — the biggest problem I have with using him is weather, and if the chances for a delay are low enough I’ll take that chance in some GPPs. Castillo struggled with his command all day against the Brewers in his last outing, needing 102 pitches just to get through 5.1IP, but he did rack up 6 Ks. I think he’ll right some of that ship in another crack at this not-very-scary Brewers lineup.
Contrarian GPP Play: Nathan Eovaldi ($9,400)
Eovaldi handles the Yankees quite well, scoring 46 points (June 4 outing @NYY: 6.0 IP, 7 Ks, 1 ER) and 48 points (June 28 outing vs. NYY: 7.2 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER) in his last two appearances facing the Bombers — who are missing some firepower tonight and are still stocked with plenty of right-handed batters. Adam Strangis discusses some of that upside in his must-read 7/17 Starting Rotation article, and I’m buying into that upside as a reasonably priced GPP option. Ownership should be low and I still think Eovaldi could get to double digit strikeouts as long as they finish this before the rain comes.
MLB DFS: The Bases
Top Stack (Outside Coors): San Diego Padres
The Dodgers in Coors Field are going to be the highest owned stack, but let’s consider the Padres. It’s fun to pick on Patrick Corbin, and the red-hot Padres lineup looks ready to go again tonight — but only if the weather cooperates. The smart-money weather sharps are projecting a late start and completed game, but we’ll have to double check before lineup lock to see if that’s still the case. Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,300), Manny Machado ($3,800), Tommy Pham ($2,900) and Wil Myers ($2,500) into my stack would be the top priority.
Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels
There’s no threat of bad weather and the Angels are loaded with value in this matchup against hittable Yusei Kikuchi. Aside from the mopre expensive Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) and Jared Walsh ($3,500), we can find lots of value in David Fletcher ($2,900), Max Stassi ($2,800) and Taylor Ward ($2,500). I’d probably try a few different combinations to mix things up, but I like that five-player pool of bats on this “other” LA team tonight.
Contrarian Stack: Atlanta Braves
I’m not convinced the Braves won’t just rock Josh Fleming off the mound early tonight and I’m really interested in starting the big righty bats, including switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,700), Dansby Swanson ($3,300) and Austin Riley ($3,100), with lefty 1B Freddie Freeman ($4,100) finishing off the four-man stack. Ownership will be low but these guys have massive upside in this matchup. Catcher Kevan Smith is also really cheap at $2,200.
Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
I'm a writer from upstate NY in a cool little Hudson River town called Coxsackie. Too many interests to list, but the films of David Lynch, the books of Kurt Vonnegut, the music of Jack White and the maddening sport of golf are near the top of my list. Big into DFS, specializing in baseball, football, golf and hoops. I've written for FFToday.com, RotoExperts and Baseball America, to name a few.