We’ve got a historic Game 7 of the World Series on tap, and our 10/30 DFS picks for MLB are geared to win you green in GPPs and take down cash games!
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The Astros are favored by a half-run and projected implied totalsput them at about 4.25-4.5 runs, with the Nats around 3.75-4 runs. The last fewgames have eclipsed the projected total, so we can expect Game 7 to do thesame. It should be an exciting finish to a fun season of MLB action!
Game 7 willfeature Zack Greinke (DK$15,600/$10,400) on normal rest versus MaxScherzer (DK $16,800/$11,200), who was scratched from his Game 5 starts withdebilitating back and neck spasms, got a cortisone shot and will be on the bumpto start Game 7. High drama, folks.
Greinke haspitched adequately in the last two series against potent offenses, whichcertainly elevates those performances on a degree of difficulty level but doesn’tnecessarily inspire confidence for fantasy usefulness at his current price. TheNats hitters looked pretty locked in during the later innings last night, and I’mnot interested in forcing either of these pitchers into my lineups today –though we could see 4-5 innings with enough Ks to warrant consideration atlower exposure.
Scherzer saidhe felt “good” throwing yesterday and actually loosened up in the bullpen for aspell toward the end of Game 6 – looking every bit the part and successfully sellingthe idea that the C-shot worked. I’ll be buying a few shares in Nats-heavybuilds.
In a winner-take-all Game 7 with nothing but glory and defeat the remainingdestinies for tomorrow, we could see quick hooks for either pitcher if the stuffisn’t there after the first several batters. These bullpens aren’t as deep assome of their previous playoff counterparts, but they have a bevy of arms that couldbe forced into duty if something goes awry. There’s some equity in fading thestarters altogether and stacking bats and the right bullpen arm – which for meshould be a closer since they could be expected to throw two innings inhigh-stakes moments.
Final thoughts about pitching:
Let’s get to the hitters.
Jose Altuve is my favorite hitter on Houston and will be in about 90 percent of my builds. Beyond that it’s Yuri Gurriel, George Springer and Michael Brantley, in that order. I wouldn’t fault you for starting Bregman (who with the price drop they are just DARING you to plug in), Yordan Alvarez or one of the cheap outfielders or catchers (likely Robinson Chirinos but Martin Maldonado has dingers in him too).
For the Nats, I’m counting on the Astros quieting Soto – who shouldhave the highest ownership among the Washington bats, and focusing on ticked-offtable-setter Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera and his wealth of experience facingGreinke (18-for-40 career with six walks and just three strikeouts), and anothervalue bat or two. Again – I wouldn’t say boo about the decision to build aroundAnthony Rendon after his late-inning blast and cold-as-ice trot around the basepaths,and Adam Eaton is very hot at the plate this series.
Turner gotblanked in Game 5, we went back to the well, and he went 2-for-5 with a doubleand got robbed of a third hit on one of the worst calls in World Series history,and that includes the called third strike on Victor Robles in Game 5 that was fiveor six inches off the plate. Turner will be out for blood in Game 7 and he cando plenty of damage without blowing the game open, so this play is still congruentwith my “Houston wins” narrative.
Eaton homered last night to tie up Game 6 at 2-2,and he’s had a solid series (.333/.440/.619 with two HR and four RBI) despite goinghitless in games 4 and 5. I love his spot in the order and he makes for a completelyreasonable play at a fair price.
Cabrera has loadsof experience and has been awfully quiet – too quiet – this series and duringhis long postseason career. In 28 October games, he’s hit just two homers andtwo doubles across 104 ABs. His price has dropped yet again, and his last hitwas in Game 3. He’s long overdue for a key hit in a big spot, and since I’mleaning Houston, I’ll need to find some value with my Nats’ exposure.
Altuve is my favorite play in cash games and I’ll be using him inseveral GPP entries. The postseason resume, the ability to hit just about anypitch thrown to him and his utility and aggressiveness on the basepaths makehim the top play for the Astros, though Gurriel (power) and Springer (all-aroundleadoff hitter extraordinaire) are close behind.
I’d include Gurriel as my spotlight value, but I wanted to move him up to make sure you see how much I like him in this game. He mashes right-handed pitching, but opposing managers do not bother to try and exploit the reverse splits by throwing lefties in to face him (because he’s still a 112 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019 with a .242 ISO). I love him here, in this park, facing whomever is on the hill for the Nats at any point in the game. Is it to much that I ask him to hit two dingers tonight?
Springer has 27 DK points in two of the World Series games,and averages over 8 DK PPG in the other four – which includes and 0-for-5 blankin Game 2. He’s essential in Houston builds and isn’t too expensive to fit in hitter-onlyShowdown lineups.
Brantley is still too cheap and I have a soft spot for his dadMickey, who is from a neighboring town. But my analysis here is far from justanecdotal; Brantley was hitless in game 5 and 6 and is without a HR this series,two things that have helped to keep his price down despite his eight-hit tallyin the first four games against Washington. It’s hard to say if this capablecontact hitter will break through with a home run tonight, but his .191 ISO in2019 was the highest of his career, and he was a slightly better hitter at home(140 wRC+ in Minute Maid vs. 127 on the road).
CPT – J. Altuve ($13,800)
UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)
UTIL – T, Turner ($8,800)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,000)
UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)
UTIL – R.Osuna ($4,000)
CPT – Y. Gurriel ($10,500)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,200)
UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,400)
UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($4,000)
CPT – A. Cabrera ($9,900)
UTIL – T. Turner ($8,800)
UTIL – A. Rendon ($9,600)
UTIL – J. Altuve ($9,200)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,400)
UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)
You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!
MVP (2x) – Altuve ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – Turner ($7,500)
UTIL – Cabrera ($5,500)
UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)
MVP (2x) – Gurriel ($6,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)
UTIL – Springer ($9,500)
UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)
UTIL – Eaton ($6,500)
MVP (2x) – Turner ($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)
UTIL – Robles ($5,500)
Goal: 0.50, Prize: 2x — Yuri Gurriel, George Springer, Jose Altuve
I think the Nats pitchers will avoid Alex Bregman, but one of these Houston hitters will end up hitting a bomb in Game 7. Minute Maid Park treats right-handed hitters especially well and these guys could easily punch a couple out of the yard.
We’re back in Washington for Game 3 of the World Series, and our 10/25 DFS picks for MLB highlight some money-making gems that might slip under the radar.
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Projected implied totals have the Nats scoring about 3.5-4.0runs, and the Astros scoring about 4.0-4.5.
Greinke has been the Astros’ third starter all postseason – and remains in that role for the World Series. He’s struggled at times this postseason but managed to pave the way for an Astros victory in his last start on Thursday October 17 in Game 4 of the ALCS. I think the Astros like their chances tonight with him on the mound.
Home runs have been a particular problem for Greinke – he’s allowed five this postseason. And he’s pitched to a 6.43 ERA and 6.40 FIP while averaging just 4.67 innings per start.
Nats hitters have plenty of experience against Greinke buthave hit only 3 HRs in 217 ABs – Kurt Suzuki, Anthony Rendon and Matt Adamseach have one.
Park factor is better for lefties in Nationals park, so wemay want to increase shares of the lefty bats in both lineups – even thoughGreinke’s splits show that lefties are not a problem for him.
One thing we can keep in mind is that Nationals hitters don’t match up very well to the Astros pitchers’ breaking stuff, while Astros hitters haven’t shown a problem hitting it, with elite metrics from their best hitters – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez among them – at connecting with both Uncle Charlie and the slider.
Sanchez has been nearly unhittable this postseason, sporting a 0.71 ERA and 2.50 FIP. He whiffed nine Dodgers bats on October 6 and despite yielding 12 fly balls against the Cards’ hitters in Game 1 of the NLCS, he gave up just one hit (and one walk) en route to twirling a 7.2 IP, 103-pitch gem that saw him strike out five batters.
We can’t expect that kind of performance against theAstros, who make better contact than the Dodgers, especially against breakingballs. When Sanchez entered the league in 206 with the Marlins, he was throwinghis fastball 60.8% of the time. In 2019, for the Nats, that number was down tojust 35.4% — as he’s added a cutter that makes up about 27.5% of his total pitches.
Sánchez throws a mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance,including a 90-mph four-seam fastball, a slow change, and a cutter. He alsomixes in a splitter – a pitch that claimed two strikeouts against RussellMartin in the NLCS.
If he’s going to get strikeouts against the Astros, it willbe via the changeup, which he throws more often against lefties but willuti8lize as an inside offering to RHBs. The main concerns for Sánchez and theNationals in Game 3 are how deep he can go in the game and preventing a biginning.
Greinke is more of a GPP play with Sanchez more likely tomake value in cash, though I don’t think either is a lock for inclusion here –as there are ways for this game to play out that neutralize pitchingeffectiveness.
Neither is essential for the Captain spot and having one ofthem in that slot doesn’t necessarily make for the best approach in large-fieldGPPs – though we’ll explore it in our sample builds.
I’m partial to Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez on Houston for their ability to hit off-speed stuff, with Gurriel and Brantley possible game-changers with their value. I’ll have more shares of the Astros in GPPs than Nats hitters As for the Nats, Soto, Rendon and Kendrick make sense for their performance against sliders, change-ups and curves – which make up Greinke’s non-fastball repertoire.
NOTE: Kendrick is not in the Game 3 starting lineup
Rendon is the most expensive hitter in the Showdown despitehitting just one home run this postseason, so he’s not necessarily a great pickfor the Captain spot. I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs, but the Nats hittersaren’t as much of a priority despite the 2-0 lead and home game.
Soto is 6-for-his-last-11 with a HR, three doubles and four RBIs and runs scored. He’s a 20-yar-old revelation who’s thriving in his first postseason to a .289/.385/.556 slash, .381 wOBa and 133 wRC+. You’ll want some shares, though the price has come up.
If the Astros pitchers are too careful with Soto, they’ll have to get by Kendrick, who’s come up big in the postseason on more than one occasion. He hits RHPs well (.930 OPS and .221 ISO in 2019) and remains a core build for Game 3. NOTE: Kendrick is not starting Game 3. Pivot your Kendrick shares to Trea Turner in Nats stacks and prioritize Rendon and Robles if you need to rebuild.
We hit Suzuki last time,and he was the Captain on the winning DK lineups. This time we’re puttingRobles in the spotlight, as he’s got the requisite speed and power to impact thisgame, as his price is low enough that putting him in the captain spot couldallow for Sanchez and more power bats in Nats-heavy builds. Eaton is also cheapand is heating up at the plate, which is a good sign for a guy who hits earlyin the Nats lineup.
We said he was due – andwhile his glove let him down on one key play, there’s nothing wrong with hisbat, as suspected. Bregman is patient (35.1% swing rate) and powerful (.296 ISOin 2019) – the best hitter on the team. And while he’s only a little betterthan league average against cutters, he destroys fastballs and curveballs. He won’tbe overmatched, his price on DK has dropped, and will be eager to avenge someof the mistakes he made in Game 2.
Altuve is impossible toavoid when building Astros lineups, and his career postseason numbers (.293/.356/.549slash, 13 HRs and 141 WRC+ in 202 ABs). there’s no need for major analysis here,because we know what he’s capable of and that we need to mix him to get someexposure.
The price has come up a bit, but Alvarez now hashits in two straight games and just two Ks over that span. He’s got greatagainst cutters, so I won’t have 100 per4cent exposure but I’d be remiss if I didn’tinclude him as a high-upside option in this Showdown.
Gurriel hits righties better than lefties and smashes cutters and curveballs – which is how Sanchez is going to tackle this Astros lineup. He offers oodles of upside at a cheap price and benefits from relatively low ownership. Just as Game 3 of the ALCS was his breakout game, this matchup puts him in another excellent spot for a homer and multiple hits.
NOTE: Alvarez may not be in the starting lineup with no DH. Use Gurriel if he’s starting at 1B.
CPT – Y. Gurriel ($11,700)
UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)
UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,800)
UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)
CPT – V. Robles ($11,100)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,000)
UTIL – J. Soto ($10,000)
UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,400)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)
UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,600)
CPT – A. Bregman ($13,500)
UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)
UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)
CPT – J. Soto ($15,000)
UTIL – A. Sanchez ($9,200)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)
UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)
You know the routine –no pitchers to consider so we can have some fun with the hitters!
MVP (2x) – Gurriel($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman($8,500)
UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)
UTIL – Robles ($5,500)
UTIL – Brantley ($6,500)
MVP (2x) – Soto ($8,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve($9,000)
UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)
UTIL – Suzuki ($5,000)
UTIL – V. Robles ($5,500)
MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)
UTIL – Robles ($5,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)
UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)
Goal 1.50 – 4x: I feel like these three offer the most upside for home runs based on the matchup. If you want to get crazy and bet on three HRs total, that’ll yield you 6x your bet.
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The 10/12 DFS MLB Two-Game Slate is about the Nationals seeking to move one step closer to really loving Life After Bryce (WAS @ STL, 4:08 ET, FS1) while Act 1 of Clash of the Titans goes down in H-Town (NYY @ HOU, 8:08 ET, FOX).
Showdown and Hitting picks follow, and I’m pretty sure we won’t forget the four starting hurlers in question.
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MVP/Captain (2X)
Trea Turner, SS, WAS (DK $14700, FD $9500)
Runs will be at a premium today, so I’ll go with the one player capable of creating runs on his own. Four of Turner’s eight postseason hits are for extra bases, and I feel today’s the day he becomes aggressive on the basepaths.
All-Star (1.5X)
Adam Eaton, OF, WAS (DK $7600, FD $7000)
Eaton has a great track record against Cards starter Adam Wainright, having recorded a .545 batting average (6-for-11) with a homer and a 1.455 OPS. Yes, he’s scuffling thus far in the postseason (.167 batting average, .560 OPS), but the thought of hitting Wainright is the wake-up call his bat needs.
Utility
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS (DK $7000, FD $6500)
Like Eaton, Zimmerman has a strong record against Wainright. In 34 career at-bats, Zimmerman has hit .353 with a pair of homers and a 1.048 OPS. He’s facing Wainright at a time where Zimmerman has five hits in his last three games while showing there’s still some pop left in his bat with a homer and a double among his hits.
Utility
Tommy Edman, 3B, STL (DK $9000, FD $7000)
You’re going to be hard-pressed to find anyone in the Cards lineup with success against Max Scherzer, but Edman — albeit a brief sample — is an exception, having gone 2-for-3 with a homer off the Nats ace. He was hitless in Game 1 yet had four hits in the previous two games. Edman is more dominant at home, where he’s posted a .959 OPS with four homers and 26 runs scored at Busch Stadium.
Utility
Yadier Molina, C, STL (DK $4400, FD $5000)
I’ve had a decent rate of success with catchers in the postseason, so consider Molina a roll of the dice. Molina is hitting just .130 thus far in the playoffs but there’s a feeling he can pay off here this afternoon. Sometimes, you have to play a hunch, and at this low a salary, I’ll take my chances.
MVP/Captain (2X)
George Springer, OF, HOU (DK $15,000, FD $8000)
One of a handful of Astros who have hit well against Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka, Springer has two homers and a 1.126 OPS in 14 at-bats against him. He also had three hits in Games 4 and 5 in the ALDS, a good sign that his postseason woes have moved past. Springer has a .931 OPS at home and a .998 OPS versus righties. Run with him tonight.
All-Star
D.J. LeMahieu, 3B, NYY (DK $9600, FD $7500)
LeMahieu knows a thing or two about Astros starter Zack Greinke, having faced him 58 times as a member of the Rockies while Greinke was bouncing around the National League. He’s hit Greinke with a .293 average with a homer among his six extra base hits against him. LeMahieu has tagged Astros pitching with a .429/.480/.905 with a pair of dingers and six runs scored.
Utility
Gleyber Torres, 2B, NYY (DK $8200, FD $6500)
Youth be damned, Torres hit a sizzling .417 in the ALDS with four of his five hits going for extra bases. He hasn’t fared well against the Astros this season (.708 OPS) but does have a pair of homers against them. He’d be my early choice for ALCS MVP. Clip and save that last sentence.
Utility
Yuli Gurriel 1B, HOU (DK $7800, FD $5500)
One of the most impressive LDS facts was Gurriel not striking out in 19 at-bats. He’s lethal at Minute Maid Park, where he’s gone .311/.351/.615 with 19 homers. While he owns just one hit in eight at-bats against Tanaka, Gurriel has the look of a silent assassin waiting to strike big time for us DFSers.
Utility
Carlos Correa, SS, HOU (DK $8000, FD $7000)
C-Squared has struggled in the postseason, but the sight of facing Tanaka should make his bat happy. Correa has two homers and an 1.108 OPS in 15 at-bats against Tanaka. He thrives at home (1.034 OPS) and is the one overdue bat in the Astros’ lineup that could change the complexion of this series if he gets hot.
The easy lay-up among today’s pitchers, I really don’t have to explain why, but here goes: 12.69 K/9, 1.72 BB/9 and an 0.94 HR/9. We’re done here.
There’s reason to be hesitant about Greinke after he was lit up for three homers by the Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS. His season total of 0.91 HR/9 suggests it was a blip on the radar, along with his 36.2% hard contact rate.
A solid September has carried into October for Wainwright, who has an ERA of 3.06 at home since the start of the 2015 season. There’s risk with a hurler who has allowed opponents to record a .286 batting average against him since the All-Star break, but Wainwright’s postseason experience will help attract users.
Tanaka has a 2.25 ERA against the Astros this season, yet it was the only time he saw them. I’m not sure I’d want to risk him, even with the friendly salary.
Plug him into the eighth spot, A.J. Hinch. After all, Chirinos does have an .887 OPS with nine homers when placed there.
Going strictly on the track record he has against Adam Wainwright. He’ll be a value play that allows you spend big elsewhere.
Crushed it with a 1.281 OPS in the ALDS. Increased hard contact rate makes Altuve a dangerous presence. If you’re looking at an Astros stack, make sure Altuve is in it.
Damned if his 17.2% walk rate and 12% strikeout rate isn’t the most impressive things of the 2019 season. That 44.7% hard contact rate is lethal.
Career-best .289 Isolated Power falls under the radar due to his injuries. Correa also had a career-high 36.9% fly ball rate and a scary good 25.6 HR/FB rate.
Somewhat quiet in the ALDS, Judge had four hits in 10 at-bats in Minute Maid Park. He’s another overdue bat that will pay off.
He’s homered twice in the postseason despite a tepid .259 batting average.
Friday night aside, Ozuna has mashed it in the postseason, going .360/.407/.727.
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It’s a busy Monday in the MLB postseason, so let’s jump right into the 10/7 DFS picks for the four-game slate and the featured Showdown contests on DraftKings.
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The games: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (1:05 p.m. EST), Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (3:07 p.m.), Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (6:40 p.m.) and New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (8:40 p.m. EST)
There should be enough value in the bats to allow us to use my two favorite pitchers in this slate.
It’s been about a year since Severino took the mound in theplayoffs, the last time a disastrous outing against the Red Sox in which he gaveup six runs in three-plus innings in the ALDS, but this is his redemption tour.He’s been electric (12.75 K/9, 2.13 FIP) since returning from injury and shouldbe fresh, last pitching in a three-inning,72-pitch outing against the Rangers on Sept. 28. Sevy is affordable and makesfor a fine SP1 if he can throw about 80-85 pitches.
Greinke was 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts after beingacquired from the D-backs in a July trade, going 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA for the2019 season. He even carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning of his finalregular-season start on Sept. 25 in Seattle and shouldn’t need his best stuffto dispatch this Rays team that’s been struggling at the plate and has animplied run total under 4.
Other options: Dallas Keuchel/Julio Teheran (value), Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer
He’s cheap and has power upside, with a .343 xWOBA against RHPs over his last two seasons. McCann has plenty of playoff experience and already has a couple hits this series. The Braves are a talented bunch and McCann is a fearless team leader. Pivot: Gary Sanchez
We’regetting a legendary playoff performer at a huge discount here, and he’s facingthe team with the worst pitching – so that’s a huge reason I’m leaning towardGoldschmidt. He put up somesolid numbers and metrics (145 wRC+ and .313 ISO) this season and is mypreferred 1B on this slate. Pivot: Freddie Freeman
I’ve toutedhim before in this column and he’s been awesome thus far in the postaseason,with four hits (three XBH) in nine ABs and a homer and 4 RBI. There are someother folks I want to play at 3B on DK, so plug him in at second base on thatsite and UTIL on FD. Pivot: Max Muncy
Plugging in Alex Bregman here is fine, but Charlie Morton should help to limit the amount of damage the Astros do in this game, so I’m using Rendon against LHP Rich Hill. Rendon has three hits in his last two games and Hill isn’t the dominating force he was in previous seasons. With a .289 ISO against LHPs over his last couple of seasons, Rendon — who was REALLY hot when the season started and could be getting going again — has me stuck on him here. Pivot: Gio Urshela/Josh Donaldson
When Didi gets hot, he’s a dangerous hitter, and we get him at a very affordable price. His grand slam in Game Two put the contest out of reach for the Twins and gives Sir Didi the requisite confidence to set aside some of his struggles and produce in this circular Yankees lineup. Pivot: Danby Swanson
Spending down a little more at the corner infield positions allows you some more expensive OF, but I’ll be looking for some value in my outfield and Markakis is the perfect play at this price. He had a double in Game 1 and sits nicely in the Braves lineup between the dangerous Josh Donaldson and lefty-mashing Matt Joyce. Solid numbers against RHPs (.817 OPS, .387 xWOBA over his last two seasons) clinch it for me. Pivot: Michael Brantley/Max Kepler
Stanton is hitless in the postseason and is still scoring fantasy points – largely because pitchers are afraid of throwing him anything near the strike zone and hes drawing walks, even with the bases loaded! The big fella is still getting in good ABs and is ready to bust out facing an overmatched Jake Odorizzi. Pivot: Aaron Judge/Eddie Rosario
Lets go right back to the well with Gardy, who’s been hot at the plate over the past few weeks and offers immense upside in the heart of the Yankees lineup. He gets us just under the salary line at his reasonable price point and will be looking to finish off this series with the help of his lively bat. Pivot: Marwin Gonzalez/Josh Reddick
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Hitters only – so stack up the best Astros bats and look for valuewithin the more pesky Rays. There’s just a lot of ways to go here, but I’lllikely be using a top Astros hitter in my MVP slot.
MVP (2x) – J. Altuve ($8,500) or Yordan Alvarez ($8,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($9,500)
UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)
UTIL – Austin Meadows ($7,000) or Yuri Gurriel ($6,500)
UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,500) or Tommy Pham ($6,500)
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I may fade the pitchers in this game entirely given the probableextensive use of both bullpens. I’m fine using Severino in the classic format,but he might be a little overpriced for Showdown.
Captain (1.5x) – D. Gregorius ($10,500)
UTIL – N. Cruz ($10,600) or Aaron Judge ($9,800)
UTIL – E. Rosario ($7,600)
UTIL – M. Kepler ($7,400)
UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)
UTIL – G. Urshela ($6,600)
If you’re hell-bent on using Sevy and stacking the best NYY bats,we can go with him at a UTIL spot and use Aroldis Chapman for one of the UTILspots as well.
Captain (1.5x) – A. Judge ($14,700)
UTIL – L. Severino ($10,400)
UTIL – D.J. LeMahieu ($9,400)
UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)
UTIL – J. Cave ($5,200)
UTIL – A. Chapman ($3,000)
I’d play around with a few different variations at the CPT spot, usingsome inexpensive Yankees bats who are just as likely to come up in big spots asthe more noted sluggers.
A flashback at some of the best performances from the Wednesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/26 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.
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Premium Gold members had access to the MLB Cheatsheet, as well as other parts of the website and the Slack channel with access to all the DFS Pros. Jason selected Zack Greinke as a value pitcher on last night’s slate against the divisional-rival Seattle Mariners on the road. He went 8.1 innings of no-hit ball before allowing back-to-back singles and being relieved. Greinke also added a walk and nine strikeouts in the outing.
Outlook for the rest of the season: This was most likely Greinke’s final start of the regular season. He has been sensational as a member of the Astros rotation since being traded there at the deadline. In 10 starts, he is 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in that span. He will most likely be a Game 3 starter in the ALDS and should be great during the postseason.
Another winner from the MLB Cheatsheet was Josh Donaldson of the Atlanta Braves. He was listed as a value third baseman going against the Kansas City Royals in an interleague matchup. He went 3-for-6 with three doubles, two runs scored and four RBI.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Donaldson needed a game like this before the season ended since he was on a massive cold stretch. Going into last night’s game, Donaldson was 1-for-22 in his last six games. With the NLDS beginning next weekend, it was crucial for him to get his bat going and begin to look as close to the 2015 A.L. MVP as he can.
If you seriously aren’t a Premium member by now, what are you waiting for to join the family and win some money? Jason was on fire with the Cheatsheet and hit on another value spot, this time in the outield. Franmil Reyes had a great night against the divisionrival Chicago White Sox, going 3-for-4 with a pair of runs scored.
Outlook for the rest of the season: In his 47 games played since being traded to Cleveland, Reyes has a .293 OBP and a .737 OPS. For the Indians to get into the playoffs, they need their offense to click. Do not get your hopes up for Franmil Reyes to begin hitting in the final few games of the regular season.
This was a solid bet from our Cash with the Flash article, that you can get as a Premium Gold member. Sorano Cirstea won in three sets against Danka Kovinic in their quarter-final matchup. Cirstea was slated as the eight seed heading into the Tashkent Open and will face off against Katarina Zavatska early Thursday morning. Expect Cirstea to be the favorite going into the matchup.
The options in tonight’s 7:05 EST 9/25 DFS main slate are limited, and most of the arms we’re focusing on are in the upper pricing tier. But there’s a couple lower priced options in the mix of today’s pitching picks to help you get some of those potent bats in your lineups. Let’s go!
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I don’t normally like to pick too much on the Marlins, but after last night’s big Mets rally and subsequent victory, I think Miami will have a tough time getting up for this game against the NL’s most electric starter. The dominant deGrom has thrown seven scoreless innings in each of his last two starts and most recently allowed just four hits with no walks and nine Ks in an 8-1 win over the Reds. He’s carrying a 3.44 ERA in 21 career starts against the Marlins but those numbers should improve overall after tonight.
He’s a huge favorite on the road in Seattle and this will be his final start in the regular season – one that’s been somewhat tumultuous. But in nine starts since being traded from the D-backs back to the AL on July 31, Greinke is 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA. 9/25 DFS features a couple of proven veteran arms with upside — and Lester has now topped 200 innings pitched for the ninth time – a feat that only Justin Verlander, who’s done that 12 times, has accomplished more among active pitchers. The Mariners don’t scare me much, so Greinke makes sense in cash and GPP.
Bieber might not be the most dominant arm on tonight’s slate, buthe’s a couple hundred bucks cheaper than Jacob deGrom and should command muchlower ownership for GPPs. He had a clunker a couple starts ago, which shouldkeep him from donning the chalk, and he’s still sporting a 28.1 K% over hislast two seasons. The White Sox have a 25.6 K% this season and Bieber should besinging them the blues in the Southside tonight.
It’s been a frustrating season for Lester, who’s 35 years old and winding down an impressive career. He’s okay for 9/25 DFS cash if you’re fine with a little bit of risk, but I think he’s more of a GPP play tonight. The Cubs southpaw has gone 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA in four starts against the Pirates this season and is 2-1 with a 5.48 ERA in four outings in September. He’s not an exciting guy to plug into your lineups, but he’s pitched well versus the Pirates and seems to be one of the best options in this slate.
I guess the aforementioned Lester could be considered apunt on FD, where he’s less than $7K, but there just aren’t too many arms inthat price range who I’ll be rolling out this evening. Samardzija will make thefinal start of his 2019 season at home versus the Rockies, who are much less frighteningon the road. Last night’s game lasted 5 hours, 31 minutes, with the Giants making12 pitching changes – so they’ll be looking for some length out of Big Jeff tonight.The 34-year-old veteran is 6-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 20 career appearances againstthe Rockies and makes for a fine cheap SP2 on DK and a contrarian GPP play onFD.
Speaking of contrarian options for 9/25 DFS, we’ll close out the recommendations with Jacob No. 2. Waguespack, a reverse splits pitcher with an occasionally aggressive approach that’s feast or famine for opposing hitters, pitched well in his last start against the Yankees in New York, peppering hitters with inside fastballs and cutters, limiting hard contact and striking out six batters over five innings. This version of the Orioles lineup (the one with Chris Davis) strikes out at a pretty high clip, and I’m less frightened of them the day following a big offensive explosion. Mix him into a few GPPs as your SP2 on DK and stay away from him on FD.
Morton should rack up plenty of Ks against the Yankees. He’s posted at least eight Ks in seven of his last 11 and three of his last four games. If there’s one thing the Yankees do other than hit home runs, it’s strike out, and they really don’t make a lot of contact in Tampa.
Tanaka has at least 5 Ks in six of his last seven games and matches up well with the Tampa lineup. There’s plenty of upside here if you want to take the risk and bank on the over for both pitchers.
I love Lamet’s 12.57 K/9 this season and 14.2 SwStr% this season,a number that’s been 15.2 over the last 30 days, good for 10th bestin baseball (min 20 IP) during that stretch. He’s posted K totals of 14,7,4,10,5, 6, 7 and 12 since the start of August. He’s also gone at least 5.0 IP in allthose games. I’m taking the over and counting on at least six Ks from Dinelson.
Stripling’s pitched just 2.0 innings in three of his last four appearances(the other was 3.0 IP), and has whiffed just 3,2,2,2 in those outings. He’s basicallyan opener now and the odds of him of racking up more than five Ks have to bepretty low. I’m taking under 5.5 Ks from the Dodgers’ opener.
We have a Coors Field game on this 9/14 MLB DFS slate, which as usual, leaves you two options: Fade completely and spend up on pitching, or take some chances and get some exposure to both sides of the plate. So, without further delay here is today’s finest matchups.
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On theDefense
JackFlaherty vs. Milwaukee Brewers
$10,500 FD / $10,800 DK
There a several great pitchers taking the mound on this 9/14MLB DFS slate but none in a better position to dominate than Flaherty tonight.The Brewers are striking out 25.3 percent of the time versus RHPs while batting.221 over the last seven days. With Christian Yelich out for the season thislineup looks a lot less scary facing a pitcher who has only allowed sevenearned runs in his last 11 starts with 95 strikeouts over 78 1/3 innings.
Zack Greinkevs. Kansas City Royals
$9,700 FD / $9,300 DK
When comparing pricing to upside on this 9/14 MLB DFS slate, Greinke finds himself at the top of my model. Although the Royals are only striking out 21.7 percent of the time facing RHPs, they do have a low .313 wOBA. Meanwhile, Zack has been on the attack as usual, only allowing more than two earned runs in two of his last 10 starts, going at least six innings in eight of them. All the numbers point to the Royals being completely shut down tonight.
Madison Bumgarnervs. Miami Marlins
$9,900 FD / $8,900 DK
This play is a complete fade for me on FanDuel at $9,900, but 100 percent in play at $8,900 on DK. This 9/14 MLB DFS slate is tricky salary wise, and one on which I would give serious consideration to Mad Bum as an SP1 on DK. The Marlins swim near the bottom of the league versus LHPs sporting a .304 wOBA and pathetic wRC+ of 88. With severe home/road splits favoring Bumgarner at home, combined with a bevy of solid starts going six innings or more, this one is a gem.
MerrillKelly vs. Cincinnati Reds
$7,300 FD / $7,800 DK
Looking for a GPP play on FD? How about a SP2 on DK? Luckilyfor you I have found you the answer on this 9/14 MLB DFS slate, and his name isMerrill Kelly. In an odd turn of events taking ballpark factors intoconsideration Kelly is currently posting a 3.50 home ERA opposed to his 5.89road ERA. With the Reds striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs whilesporting a wRC+ of 81 over the last seven days, Kelly is where I am looking.
TylerGlasnow vs. Los Angeles Angels
$8,200 FD / $5,000 DK
Obviously with the pitch count for Glasnow highly in question on this 9/14 MLB DFS slate he is a complete fade for me on FD. But oh boy, look at the price on DK. My hope here is that he makes it about three-to-four innings netting 12 or more fantasy points, facing an Angels team batting .212 over the last seven days.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 10 | 7 | 168.1 | 10.48 | 2.62 | 1.23 | 38.00% | 14.20% | 2.99 | 3.8 |
| Zack Greinke | Astros | 15 | 5 | 189.1 | 7.94 | 1.38 | 0.95 | 44.20% | 11.20% | 2.99 | 3.86 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 9 | 8 | 188.2 | 8.78 | 1.86 | 1.24 | 35.90% | 12.10% | 3.77 | 4.29 |
| Merrill Kelly | Diamondbacks | 10 | 14 | 163.1 | 7.55 | 2.76 | 1.54 | 41.80% | 15.60% | 4.68 | 4.68 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 6 | 1 | 50.1 | 10.73 | 1.97 | 0.72 | 50.80% | 10.50% | 2.15 | 2.99 |
On theAttack
Obviously on this 9/14 MLB DFS slate Coors Field is going to be highly targeted, so here are some other options if you were to go a different route.
Mike Montgomeryvs. Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are the number one offense in MLB facing LHPs. They are posting a .370 wOBA with a wRC+ of 135, while only striking out 17.9 percent of the time (the lowest in MLB). Although Monty’s home/road splits are severe favoring home, he has allowed five earned runs in two of this last four starts. Facing this team, he is going to get blown up on this 9/14 MLB DFS slate.
Notable Bats
Jose Altuve has a .474 wOBA versus LHPs with a wRC+of 227. He is also 3-for-5 with a home run and 3 RBI versus Montgomery.
George Springer has five home runs and 11 RBI overthe last seven days while posting a .379 wOBA versus LHPs.
Abraham Toro comes at a low salary and gives you somecheap exposure to the Astros bats tonight.
DylanCease vs. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have been less than impressive facing RHPs this season, and the .307 wOBA shows it. There will be some people on this 9/14 MLB DFS slate who will argue Cease makes a nice GPP play. Well, this is also the case the other way. Dylan has not been chillin’, allowing 13 earned runs in his last 12 innings. Attack, Attack, Attack!
Notable Bats
Daniel Vogelbach has been colder than a Massachusetts day in January, batting .118 over the last seven. Regardless he still carries a .363 wOBA versus RHPs, making this a perfect game to break out of the slump.
Kyle Seager makes a nice option tonight with Nolan Arenado being tops at third. He is also in a prime spot for a breakout game, batting .158 over the last seven days.
Omar Narvaez has a .352 wOBA versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 124. He is batting in the cleanup spot most nights and makes a fine play at the catcher position.
| Name | Team | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | wRC+ | wOBA L | wOBA R |
| Jose Altuve | Astros | 502 | 28 | 86 | 67 | 6 | 8.00% | 15.10% | 0.305 | 143 | 0.474 | 0.352 |
| George Springer | Astros | 512 | 35 | 88 | 89 | 5 | 11.70% | 20.70% | 0.296 | 156 | 0.379 | 0.408 |
| Abraham Toro | Astros | 67 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 10.40% | 19.40% | 0.237 | 106 | 0.213 | 0.368 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | Mariners | 525 | 30 | 71 | 76 | 0 | 16.40% | 25.90% | 0.214 | 116 | 0.277 | 0.363 |
| Kyle Seager | Mariners | 385 | 22 | 50 | 59 | 2 | 10.60% | 20.30% | 0.246 | 120 | 0.385 | 0.328 |
| Omar Narvaez | Mariners | 446 | 20 | 60 | 52 | 0 | 9.60% | 19.50% | 0.28 | 119 | 0.317 | 0.352 |
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
With Milwaukee striking out over 25 percent of the timeversus RHPs, and Flaherty striking out eight or more batters in three of hislast five starts, I am going with the over here.
In Lyles’ last five starts he has only struck out five or more batters once. With the Cardinals being on the lower end of strikeouts versus RHPs, I am on the under all day.
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A flashback at some of the best performances from the Monday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/10 MLB DFS review and look ahead.
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As Jason had him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a value pitcher, Greinke was pretty good against the Oakland Athletics, going six shutout innings with two hits and five strikeouts. He also lowered his combined season ERA to 2.99.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Zack Greinke has been a solid pickup since the Astros acquired him at the Trade Deadline. Since joining Houston, he is 5-1 with a 3.32 ERA in seven starts. Expect Greinke to continue being a solid starting pitcher as he gets ready for the ALDS and potentially beyond.
Another solid choice by Jason on the Cheatsheet was Nicholas Castellanos for the Chicago Cubs. Facing off against the San Diego Padres, Castellanos went 3-for-5 with a homer, a couple of RBI and three runs scored.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Castellanos has been En Fuego since joining a playoff contender in Chicago. Since August 1 (when he was traded from the Tigers) he has a .364 BABIP and a 1.056 OPS. Not to mention he has yet to commit an error since the trade while playing both corner outfield spots. Expect Castellanos to continue to rake down the final stretch.
Here is a screenshot of the 25 cheapest outfielders on our Hitter Projection Model, available for all premium users. Trent Grisham batted leadoff against the Miami Marlins yesterday and went 5-for-6 with a double, triple, two RBI and two runs.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Grisham is almost at 100 at-bats for the season and is at .260 wth four HRs and 13 RBI. Getting Grisham some plate appearances in the stretch run could pay dividends for the Brewers as a potential bench piece on a playoff roster.
For the second night in a row, the Houston Astros had an offensive explosion. Against the Oakland Athletics, the team combined for 15 runs on 17 hits with a pair of walks and reached on a throwing error. Robinson Chirinos went 3-for-4 with two homers and six RBI while Jose Altuve went 3-for-3 with a home run and two RBI.
Outlook for the rest of the season: The Houston Astros continue to dominate in all facets of the game. This is back-to-back incedible offensive performances throughout the lineup. Houston looks serious to try and own the best record in baseball for home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
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