Welcome back WinDaily family, It’s the time of the year we’ve all been waiting for…Football season! Week One brings us a full 13-course meal for the Sunday Slate, and I’m here to pick each game apart piece by piece to help you build your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. Whether you need safe players for your cash games or you’re aiming for a six-figure payday in a GPP, we have you covered. I’m Joe DiCarlo, feel free to tag me @DiCarlo78 in our Discord or any of our other experts for building advice and questions. Be sure also to check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Week One Main Slate Breakdown…Let’s get this money!
Sunday Main Slate 9/10/23
Texans @ Ravens (-10) (O/U 44)
The young and inexperienced Texans will open their season in an uphill battle in Baltimore against a Ravens team that is stacked on both sides of the ball. The second-overall pick in this year’s draft C. J. Stroud and the Texans should lean heavily on their run game and look for veteran tight end Dalton Schultz ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) in short-yardage passing plays, who ranked ninth in 2022 in target rate (23.9%). Running back Dameon Pierce ($5,800 DraftKings/$ 6,200 FanDuel) saw a ton of volume in his rookie year, seeing a 73.8% opportunity share, so we’ll see him touch the ball plenty on Sunday.
Baltimore on the other hand will be out for blood, and the 10-point spread speaks for itself. Lamar Jackson’s contract extension is settled, and he will prove his worth in Week One. Although he is priced up for DFS, Lamar ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel) is safe for cash. His true passer rating of 100.7 ranked second in the league in 2022, to go along with a floor of 63 rushing yards per game speaks volumes against a Texan team that averaged 379 total yards allowed per game.
Rookie wide-out Zay Flowers ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) may see a fair amount of snaps in the opener as starter Rashad Bateman gets eased back into shape after last year’s foot injury, and well worth a shot at his low salary in a GPP.
Honorable mention: J.K. Dobbins ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel)
UPDATE: Mark Andrews may be out, check his status before lock. Isaiah Likely ($3,000 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) had 14 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown filling in his shoes for two games last season.
Niners @ Steelers (+2.5) (O/U 40.5)
The total says it all in this afternoon game in Pittsburgh, a grind-it-out defensive struggle led by two second-year quarterbacks on opposing sides. As game totals are low in this matchup, so are players’ salaries. Receivers Deebo Samuel ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel), Brandon Aiyuk ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel), Diontae Johnson ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel), and George Pickens ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) are all priced down and can easily pop off 3X value with their skill sets.
Then there’s McCaffrey ($8,700 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel). He is always in the equation for DFS, ranking second in targets (107) and receptions (85) amongst running backs in 2022, with 13 total TDs. If you can squeeze him into your build, he’s well worth the price tag in a 13-game slate.
Pittsburgh and Kenny Pickett will square up against a newly signed Nick Bosa and the number-one-ranked defense in the league, I’m afraid to even think of using any Steelers for DFS this Sunday. A safe pay-up pivot would be the 49ers DST ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel).
Jaguars @ Colts (+4.5) (O/U 45.5)
The 2022 AFC South Champion Jaguars will bring their array of offensive firepower to Indianapolis in a divisional clash to start the season. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence ($6,500 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) coming off a stellar sophomore season (#1 in 2022 for a projection rate of 90.8%) will look to keep the momentum moving in the right direction, which is possible against a rebuilding Colts’ organization. Since we don’t know the target share for Jacksonville yet, it’s safe to stick with a naked T-Law. Although Pivotting to Travis Etienne ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) is fine against a Colts defense that finished 25th in DVOA to opposing running backs in 2022.
Indianapolis is another story, they’re a team that will struggle to light up the scoreboard led by rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. He’ll need to make use of his legs from the gate since running back Jonathon Taylor will miss the first four games due to a lingering ankle injury which placed him on the PUP list. If Richardson ($5,600 DraftKings/$ 6,700 FanDuel) does scramble for four quarters, he could easily pay his low-end salary, but I’d keep him out of cash games until we get some eyes on him. I could also envision this game to be a turnover-fest at the same time, so the Jacksonville defense ($3,500 DraftKings/$ 4,400 FanDuel) would pay off generously if Richardson gets sloppy in his first contest.
High risk/reward: Calvin Ridley ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel)
Bucs @ Vikings (-6.5) (O/U 45.5)
The G.O.A.T. (Tom Brady) era has finally come to an end for Tampa Bay as they kick off against the Vikings on Sunday. I love this game for DFS because it’s loaded with value and features one of the best receivers in today’s game, Justin Jefferson.
Last season the Bucs and Vikings both had suspect defenses, as Minnesota ranked 31st in the league in passing yards allowed (266.9 YDS/game) and Tampa allowed 13 passing touchdowns in their final five games of the year. Both offenses are viable, and all the moving parts that go along with them.
(CASH)
Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel); Justin Jefferson. ($8,800 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel); T.J. Hockenson ($5,900 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel); Alexander Mattison ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel); Chris Godwin ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel).
(GPP)
Baker Mayfield ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel); Mike Evans ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel); Rachaad White ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel); Cade Otton ($3,300 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel); K.J. Osborne ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel).
Cardinals @ Commanders (-7) (O/U 39)
A 39 Over/Under does not excite me at all for DFS, especially with a Commanders’ uncertainty at quarterback with Sam Howell and an Arizona squad appearing to go into tank mode already before Week One. The Cardinals will be without their star quarterback Kyler Murray, (PUP) and possibly tight end Zach Ertz (knee). Arizona also released their best receiver this summer (DeAndre Hopkins), leaving Marquise Brown to lead a receiving core of Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore for journeyman QB Josh Dobbs.
The Commander’s defense ($2,800 DraftKings/$4,900 Fanduel) may end up taking over this game after all is said and done. Running back James Conner may see eight in the box, as well as Josh Dobbs or rookie QB Clayton Tune, being unable to move the ball. Washington’s backfield could see a lot of work in the second half if this game gets out of hand, so Brian Robinson ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) and Antonio Gibson ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) are safe bets.
Honorable Mention: Jahan Dotson ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) (GPP)
Bengals @ Browns (+1.5) (O/U 47.5)
The AFC North matchup carries the second-highest game total this weekend and may drive some ownership to most of the key players on the slate. If this is a shootout, then our builds may want to have plenty of orange helmets come Sunday afternoon.
The Browns under head coach Kevin Stefanski have always kept their offensive line honest, who ranked second in the league last season and opened up huge holes for running back Nick Chubb ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel). The Georgia product’s floor remains high, averaging over 5YPC since entering the league in 2018.
If Cleveland goes back to Kyle Schwartz’s man coverage defense, Joe Burrow ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) could put on a clinic. Burrow ranked second in the league in QBR (107.1) against man coverage with a 61.1 completion percentage. Pairing Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) and Tee Higgins ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) with Burrow could benefit lineups.
Honorable Mention: David Njoku ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel)
Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5) (O/U 40)
Both teams in this NFC South battle have two things in common going into 2023, lack of NFL experience at quarterback and motivation to run the ball. The Falcons’ offensive line ranked in the top five last season led by RG Second-Team All-Pro Chris Lindstrom and veteran Jake Matthews. Eighth-overall pick Bijan Robinson ($8,000 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) will have his work cut out for him in the home opener.
The Panthers and their number-one overall pick Bryce Young may also look to lean on their running backs, mainly free-agent acquisition Miles Sanders ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel). He was handsomely paid this summer (Four years/$25.4 million) and earned every penny after rushing for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Fellas, there’s a lot of young talent in this game too. Other than the ones I’ve mentioned guys like Drake London ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) and Terrace Marshall Jr. ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) are way too cheap. The Falcons and Panthers will need to pass eventually, and at the salaries of their teammates, they could be slate-breakers if they land one into paydirt.
Honorable Mention: Hayden Hurst ($3,000 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel)
Titans @ Saints (-3.5) (O/U 41.5)
Tennessee ranked dead last in DVOA to opposing receivers (32nd/275 PAyd per game) and has a chance to repeat that stat this season, as they have next to nothing of a pass rush on defense. Newly acquired Saints quarterback Derek Carr ($5,300 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) should have a field day in the home opener targeting the likes of Chris Olave ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel), Michael Thomas ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel), and Juwan Johnson ($3,900 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel).
Running back Jamaal Williams ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is a bargain at the position, he will own the lion’s share of carries for the Saints (Alvin Kamara is suspended/Rookie Kendre Miller is not 100% healthy).
We all know by now what Tennessee wants to do, and that’s to unleash Derrick Henry ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel). The Saints allowed an average of over 130 rushing yards per game, none of the backs as ferocious as the Titans’ number 22. He seems to be flying under the radar in Week One and is somewhat underpriced if you ask me. Henry’s a great flyer for a GPP.
Eagles @ Patriots (+4.5) (O/U 45)
The defending NFC Champs fly out to Foxboro in what could be a slugfest against the Patriots. Head coach Bill Belichick has had all summer to strategize against the number-one fantasy point scorer in 2022, quarterback Jalen Hurts ($7,800 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel). Hurts will feast regardless and is matchup-proof because of his dual capabilities, freezing linebackers, and safeties, which could trickle down work for running back D’Andre Swift ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,300).
Although Belichick always finds a way to slow down the game seven-time Super Bowl-winning coach and the Patriots’ defense ($2,700 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) held teams to just 20.4 points per game (12th) with 30 takeaways (2nd) last season, making them a sneaky DST for DFS.
Philly’s defense is nothing to sneeze at either, who set an NFL record with 70 sacks last season. Patriot quarterback Mac Jones could spend more time on his back than on his feet this Sunday, so I don’t mind paying up for the Eagles DST ($3,700 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel).
Honorable Mention: Rhamondre Stevenson (The only game in town for the Pats) ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) (GPP only)
Rams @ Seahawks (-5.5) (O/U 47)
The Rams’ line moved an entire point once the Cooper Kupp news broke of him most likely missing Week One due to a hamstring. It could get ugly for Matt Stafford in Seattle without LA’s most prolific weapon on offense, who has struggled in the past without Kupp. The Rams may roll with a heavier dose of Cam Akers ($6,200 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) and test Seattle’s 2022 29th-ranked DVOA against opposing running backs.
The Seahawks will bring a lot of firepower to their division rival on Sunday, a team whose secondary is now compromised with the departure of Jalen Ramsey. I’m fine with all of Seattle’s arsenal this week at home. DK Metcalf ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) and Tyler Lockett ($6,700 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) paired up with Geno Smith ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) form a decent mid-range stack this weekend.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Higbee ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel)
Dolphins @ Chargers (-3) (U/O 50.5)
The highest point total of the slate will be played at SoFi Stadium this weekend and has the dynamics to be a shootout. There will be a ton of ownership across the board between both teams, but get your fair share by all means.
The Chargers in the off-season recruited offensive coordinator Kellen Moore from the Dallas Cowboys, who has mentioned he would utilize Justin Herbert’s arm during the off-season. Here are some of the key players I would look to stack alongside Justin Herbert ($6,900 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) against the 30th-ranked Dolphins coverage in 2022:
- Keenan Allen ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel)
- Mike Williams ($5,700 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel)
- Gerald Everett ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel)***O.C. Kellen Moore loves his tight ends… (Dalton Schultz averaged 10-plus yards per catch since 2020 in Dallas with Moore).
The Dolphins themselves will bring a lot to the table in firepower this Sunday. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) might inherit an even bigger workload if Jaylen Waddle can’t shake a lingering hamstring injury he picked up in practice. Head coach Mike McDaniels could use Hill’s speed out of the backfield as well to exploit a Chargers’ 2022 run defense that was 26th in DVOA. Raheem Mostert ($5,400 Draftkings/$ 5,900 FanDuel) will also undoubtedly benefit from a significant increase in opportunity share with Jeff Wilson on the IR, and the matchup makes an even stronger case to start him for DFS.
Update: Waddle ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) will suit up for Week One.
Packers @ Bears (-2) (U/O 44)
Jordan Love ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) emerges from the shadow of Aaron Rodgers for the Packers to make his debut in Chicago. He’s been electric in all three preseason games, throwing 21-33 for 183 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Love also scrambled four times for 33 yards and no sacks, tempting me to put him in a few GPP lineups (2022 Bears defense 27th DVOA to quarterbacks). But it’s been a tough training camp as injuries have piled up so far. Receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have appeared on injury reports all week, leaving rookies Jayden Reed ($3,000 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) and tight end Luke Musgrave ($2,900 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel)
Can’t forget about Fields ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) though, an absolute stud. He fell just under 70 rushing yards to break Lamar Jackson’s single-season record for quarterbacks with 1,143. The Packers’ defense will be ready with coverage to his receivers but may struggle again this season to stop the run (24th in DVOA to opposing running backs). His new teammate DJ Moore ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) should also be in the mix this weekend, as the duo has displayed decent chemistry this preseason.
Honorable Mentions: Aaron Jones ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel); Khalil Herbert ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel)
Update: Christian Watson is OUT; Doubs is still Questionable.
Raiders @ Broncos (-4.5) (U/O 43.5)
To wrap up the later slate, Vegas travels to Mile High Stadium for an AFC West showdown in Colorado. New Broncos head coach Sean Payton has been the talk of the town in Denver over the offseason, and the million-dollar question is can he fix Russ? I never really could believe he was broken, just mishandled by the old regime. The Raiders’ 29th-ranked pass coverage in 2022, minus edge Chandler Jones, will be a clear path for Russell Wilson ($5,900 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel).
But the Broncos could roll into Sunday afternoon’s game a little thin at the receiver position (Jeudy questionable; Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler on IR). Courtland Sutton($5,200 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) will be a rock-solid option if Jeudy doesn’t go, but the door of opportunity will be wide-open for the rookie Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,000 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) for an extra slice of the snap share.
Vegas finally opened up their wallet to sign the NFL’s leading rusher last season (1,653 yards) Josh Jacobs ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel). The Raiders should run Jacobs into the ground again this year as last season’s insane opportunity share led the league at 83.8%. Facing Denver in both meetings, Jacobs stomped all over the Broncos’ front line for 253 yards and four touchdowns.
Honorable Mentions: Davante Adams ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel); Greg Dulcich ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel)
Cash Core
Jalen Hurts; Justin Jefferson; Austin Ekeler; Juwan Johnson
GPP Core
Jordan Love; Josh Jacobs; Gerald Everett; Ja’Maar Chase
Stacks
Herbert/Allen/Ekeler/Everett
Cousins/Jefferson/Hockenson
Burrow/Chase/Higgins
Wilson/Sutton/Mims (if Jeudy sits)/Dulcich
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 1. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for a 3-day, weekly, monthly, and annual membership here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
