NFL Week 1 DFS is almost in the books folks. With two games remaining on Monday night while we wait let’s take a look at the biggest takeaways from all of Sunday’s Week 1 DFS action. I have compiled 12 major takeaways from the games played on Sunday for our version of the Win Daily Dozen!
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The sophomore passer looked absolutely insane in his season debut finishing with five touchdowns and 324 passing yards in a 59-10 rout of the tanking Miami Dolphins. And he was owned in just 5% of lineups in the $500K SLANT GPP Contest, and 5.7% of lineups in the DFS Week 1 DraftKings NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP at $6,000. For Week 2, he is priced up to $6,700 and will most certainly be chalk. But you should continue to use him moving forward. Especially with his upcoming schedule featuring matchups against the Cardinals, Chiefs, Browns, and Steelers. Just lock Jackson cash games because his floor is so high with his rushing upside.
Worth noting no running back received any targets in the passing game. Also, Gus Edwards led the backfield in carries with 17 versus Mark Ingram’s 14. So Mark Ingram might be heavily owned especially next Week in cash, but with no involvement in the passing game could make him more of a fade even against the porous Cardinals run defense. Ingram was 11.5% owned in the $500K SLANT GPP Contest, and 8.2% in the NFL Week 1 DFS GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP. These will increase in Week 2.
Tight end Mark Andrews at $3,000 appears to be the major contributor from the Ravens passing game leading the team in targets (8) and accumulating eight receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown. Marquise Brown made some big plays in the passing game but buyer beware: He played just 14 snaps (18.2%) in Week 1. Brown was just .3% owned $500K SLANT GPP Contest. Seth Roberts led the team in snaps at the receiver position (52). Andrews should continue to be a value at $3,800 in Week 2. Andrews was played in just 2.9% in the $500K SLANT GPP Contest.
John Ross – Touchdown Machine
In 2018, John Ross had 21 receptions and seven of them were touchdowns. That’s an absurd touchdown rate of 66% that is almost unrepeatable. In Week 1 of the 2019 season, Ross continued to prove that he has a nose for the end zone by not only scoring two more touchdowns but adding 158 receiving yards on seven receptions on 12 targets. Ross was the biggest beneficiary of A.J. Green’s absence in Week 1. Tyler Boyd also received 11 targets and definitely emerged as Andy Dalton’s safety net. If an owner in a yearly league is sour on Boyd after eight receptions for 60 yards go trade for Boyd surrounding the Ross hype.
Pete Carroll Loves Chris Carson
So it looks like coach Pete finally decided to tell the truth. He told us he wanted to run the ball and that he wanted to get Chris Carson involved more in the passing game. Carson was chalky in the $500K SLANT GPP Contest at 31.6% ownership and in the NFL Week 1 DFS GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP his ownership was at 59.3% at his $5,700 salary price. He delivered on Sunday. Carson dominated the snaps (77.4%), led the team in receptions (6), rushing attempts (15), and rushing yards (46). That usage in the passing game is huge for Carson because his yards/attempt was 3.1 was pitiful. Especially as it was heavily inflated by a large run in the fourth quarter.
The Seahawks had only 20 pass attempts versus 21 rushing attempts. Their 49 total offensive plays were the second-fewest run on Sunday tied with the Vikings. Slow-paced offenses do not result in a lot of fantasy scoring so Seahawks players might not be great values moving forward and may be games you want to avoid stacking with. The matchup with the Steelers run defense could be a potential fade for Carson with his price up to $6,400.
Jerry Jones Just Pay Dak!
This is the season for contract extensions in NFL especially if you are player in Dallas Texas. The Cowboys’ quarterback put up monster numbers in the season-debut throwing for four touchdowns, 405 passing yards, for a perfect quarterback rating. Dak Prescott was a player I used in cash games and I was alone here. He was just played in 1.8% of lineups in the NFL Week 1 DFS GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP. He was actually a more popular tournament play at 4.5% ownership in the $500K SLANT GPP Contest.
Dak will be another player to target again in cash games for Week 2 as the Cowboys take on the Redskins whom popular cash quarterback in Week 1 Carson Wentz put up 28 fantasy points against Washington. An interesting tidbit about Wentz is he was the quarterback chalk in the NFL Week 1 DFS GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP at 35.7% ownership. However, despite the great matchup he was just owned in 9.1% in the $500K SLANT GPP Contest. What this tells me is there may be an edge to playing the chalk “cash quarterback” into your single entry GPPs. For Week 2, my money is on Jared Goff at $5,900. Worth noting that the imploding Jameis Winston was at 25.1% ownership in the NFL Week 1 DFS GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP.
John “Smokey” Brown
One of the cheaper wide receivers on the slate, Brown came up big with 10 targets, seven receptions, and 123 receiving yards along with a touchdown. He accumulated 133 air yards and was targeted on 27% of Josh Allen’s passing attempts. Brown was at 2.2% in the NFL Week 1 DFS GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP and 5.8% in the $500K SLANT GPP Contest.
And with the Giants the next opponent for the Bills, Brown should eat next week with a cheap price on DraftKings at $5,200. The Giants just gave up 100 plus receiving yards to both Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper and over 180 air yards last week. Brown led all receivers in snaps (85%) and targets (10). With the chalk on Brown and Cole Beasley in cash games for sure, Zay Jones ($3,500) becomes the GPP target to stack with Josh Allen. Speaking of Allen despite turning the ball over four times, he still scored 17+ fantasy points.
Le’Veon Bell is Cash Viable
Ty Montgomery was a smoke screen. Bell played in 100% of the offensive snaps for the Jets; exactly what you want from a running back in cash lineups: All of the touches. His totaled 23 touches out of the 66 plays that the Jets offense ran in Week 1. That’s 35%. In comparison that’s on par with guys like Christian McCaffery, who registered 45%, and more than Saquon Barkley, who registered just 23%. Bell was played in just 11.7% of the $500K SLANT GPP Contest, and even less in NFL Week 1 DFS GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP where he was 5.2% owned.
Speaking of Christian McCaffrey
Dude needs to be in your cash lineup every single week that he is on the main slate. As referenced above he registered 45% of the offensive’s total touches in Week 1. In yet in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP, he was rostered in just 30% of lineups. 70% of people hate winning I guess.
Sammy Watkins In, Tyreek Hill Out
Welp, Tyreek Hill looks to be on the shelf for about a month at least, pushing Sammy Watkins up the depth chart. Watkins was owned in just 7% of lineups. He was priced at $5,000 and was in the winning lineup on DraftKings NFL $500K SLANT GPP Contest. Not so sure he continues to be a value, though, as we have seen this before with Watkins. People will buy into the narrative that he should see more looks from Patrick Mahomes, but having Hill on the field opens up a ton of space for his other receivers. The real interest here is the rookie, Mecole Hardman. He is priced at $4,800 and has great value heading into Week 2 when the Chiefs taking on the Oakland Raiders.
Melvin Gordon Who?
Another running back that found himself in a starter role on Sunday was Austin Ekeler. He was 16.65% owned in NFL $500K SLANT GPP contest, and astonishingly was owned less in cash games at just 7.8% ownership in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP. The main takeaway here is the field was scared off because the report said that the touches would be split between Ekeler and Justin Jackson. When in reality it was 75-25% split between the two in snaps, 12-6 in rushing attempts, and 7-3 in targets. This was in a game where the game script had the Chargers playing with the lead the majority of the time.
That means the value will continue to be there with Ekeler regardless of game flow. If they were losing, for example, Ekeler would have probably been featured heavily in the passing game. DraftKings pricing also fails to realize this that because for Week 2 he is priced at $6,100. That is just up to $600 from Week 1.
DeSean Jackson #RevengeGame
Jackson is the king of the #revengame narrative. I was extremely high on Jackson and stacking him with Wentz in my preview article of the Week 1 NFL slate. At $4,800 he was a great play in GPPs and the field was not high on him. He was rostered in just 6.1% of lineups and Carson Wentz was just rostered in 9.1% of lineups. This was in the NFL $500K SLANT GPP Contest. However, Jackson tends to do this; start out on fire and then sizzle out. He is not on the main slate in Week 2. Though he is always known as being a deep threat he did have eight receptions on 10 targets.
Dalvin Cook Delivers As Chalk RB
At $6,100, I predicted Dalvin Cook to smash in Week 1 and smash he did. Everybody was high on Cook has he was 79% owned in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP. In the $500K SLANT GPP Contest he was at 40.9%. Keep in mind that these chalky running backs in cash games still garner ownership in the GPPs. Cook should be continued to be used as the main running back in Week 2 even at $7,200. The Vikings threw the ball just 10 times in Week 1 as they continue to just #EstablishTheRun.
Evan Engram: Tight End Lock
The two top teams in the $500K SLANT GPP Contest both rostered Evan Engram at 12.4% ownership at $4,800. This should not be a surprise to most. Engram is one of the only pass-catching weapons that Eli Manning can really use. In cash games, Engram was used even more at 23.1%. Engram was not generating much buzz before Week 1, but he’s the example of who you should be looking for at tight end. Can the tight end garner a large target share? That is what you need to be looking for. In Week 2, Engram is at just $5,200, $400 more than last week.
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