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Just 5 events left after an amazing race at Talladega last weekend. 10 drivers are still in the chase for the last 6 spots in the playoffs with Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney already guaranteed spots into the next round. The Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Sunday should be very interesting as some below the cut line are in must-win situations. Those above the cut line need to stay aggressive, but must avoid a DNF.

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PLAYOFF STANDINGS

The Kansas Speedway is a 1.5 mile track that opened in 2001 and has become a main cog in the playoff chase. Chevrolet has won 10 of the 18 events and 3 drivers in the field (Johnson, Harvick, and Logano) have won twice. Chase Elliott won last year’s event. The Digital Ally 400 event is also held at the Kansas track in May. Harvick and Johnson have each also won this event. Brad Keselowski is the only 2-time winner including this year’s event, which had a nice mix of chalk and value plays in the top 10.

2019 DIGITAL ALLY 400 RESULTS AT KANSAS

Below were my pre-qualifying DFS rankings. There was a huge focus on the drivers in the playoffs, but narrowing in on the value plays with Top-10 potential is crucial.

High Priced

  1. Joey Logano $9,800
  2. Brad Keselowski $9,600
  3. Kevin Harvick $11,000

Mid-Tier

  1. Clint Bowyer $8,800
  2. Jimmie Johnson $8,000
  3. William Byron $8,200

Value Plays

  1. Chris Buescher $6,700
  2. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,000
  3. Ryan Newman $7,300

Qualifying gave two playoff chase drivers some issues as Kevin Harvick was not able to qualify after after failing inspection and will start at the rear of the field. Martin Truex Jr. failed inspection twice and qualified 11th.  Both have lost their crew chiefs for rest of the weekend.  Harvick instantly becomes the chalk of the event in DFS.  It will be hard to fade him.  Rookie Daniel Hemric took the pole at just over 178 MPH.  David Ragan was a surprise #2 qualifier followed by Blaney, Keselowski, and Larson in the top 5. 

Kyle Busch continues to qualify poorly, finishing 18th as did other playoff chase competitors Denny Hamlin (23rd) and Joey Logano (29th).  There will be a ton of jostling for position as these drivers try to move their way to the top.
I have included my final driver percentages for Kansas below over 41 lineups.  My “OPTIMAL” lineup will include Harvick, Elliott, and Keselowski with 3 value plays.  I am using this lineup in a single entry event. Good Luck Sunday!

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Qualifying for the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky took place on Friday. Qualifying up front at Kentucky has proven to be a huge advantage going into race day. Starting up front is key to running well and finishing well in NASCAR DFS. We will take a run through some big names and values and how they fared in qualifying and what it means for their outlooks. Salaries are based on DraftKings.

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Daniel Suarez ($7,600) qualified on the pole for Saturday’s race. He was also fastest in 10 Consecutive lap averages in final practice. Suarez should contend for his first ever Cup win. I liked him before qualifying and he should run up front a lot of the day.

Qualifying second was Suarez’s teammate Aric Almirola ($8,200). Almirola was right on the edge for me coming into qualifying and this bumped him up. He ran good here last year and grabbed a Top 10. Expect the same this year.

Brad Keselowski ($10,000) qualified third and was one of my top picks before qualifying. Keselowski has won here three times and has now become my favorite to take the checkered flag Saturday night. He is also my choice for top fantasy scorer.

Rounding out the Top 5 is Kurt Busch ($9,300) and Kevin Harvick ($10,600). Kurt Busch is a wild card here at Kentucky as he has been very inconsistent but has some good finishes as well. Harvick was third best in 10 lap averages in final practice and should be a good pick for your DFS NASCAR squad.

Daniel Hemric ($6,300) and Austin Dillon ($7,200) qualified in 6th and 9th respectively. These two teammates have qualified well most of the year. I expect Hemric to fall off quickly but Dillon has been able to hold his own with good cars. I expect Hemric to fall near 20th but Dillon to race around the 10th to 15th spot all day.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000) qualified eighth and hasn’t shown great speeds in practice. He is still one of my favorites but has fallen down a couple notches after practice and qualifying.

Kyle Busch ($11,500) is going to start 10th Saturday. This gives him some Place Differential upside. He was second best in 10 lap averages in final practice and should race his way to the front.

Ryan Blaney ($8,300) qualified 15th for the Quaker State 400. He has normally qualified in the Top 10 here but this doesn’t scare me away too much. Last year he and his team made the car better in each stage and I expect the same this year. Look for good Place Differential points from Blaney in this one.

Five big names will start all bunched up from 18th to 22nd. Denny Hamlin ($9,100), Kyle Larson ($9,500), Chase Elliott ($9,700), Erik Jones ($8,900), and Alex Bowman ($8,500) all are in big upside positions. Hamlin and Larson have raced from the back here in past years so they do not concern me and I like their upside. Elliott and Jones have done decently from the middle of the pack and I still like Jones as a good value pick. Alex Bowman worries me as he has struggled in his career to move up from bad starting positions. Target Hamlin, Larson, and Jones out of this group.

NASCAR DFS Targets

Brad Keselowski ($10,000)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Daniel Suarez ($7,600)

Avoid

Joey Logano ($10,300)

Daniel Hemric ($6,300)

Matt Dibenedetto ($6,800)

NASCAR DFS Wild Card (High Risk Play)

Kurt Busch ($9,300)

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NASCAR heads to Kentucky after a crazy weekend at Daytona which ended early because of rain. Justin Haley, a NASCAR Xfinity Series regular, got the win after the race was called with over 30 laps left. Six of the Top 10 finishers at Daytona are worse than 15th in points standings and five of those six are outside the Top 20. It was an unpredictable race coming in and only became harder to believe when weather ended it early. The Quaker State 400 at Kentucky should be much easier to project in NASCAR DFS.

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Strategy

The NASCAR DFS strategy for Kentucky is much more straightforward than we have seen in the past few weeks. There are 267 laps at this 1.5 mile track. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch have led 438 laps combined over the past two races here with absurd Driver Ratings, which shows dominant cars can run away with the race at Kentucky. The winner of this race has qualified in the Top 10 is seven of eight events and started on the front row five times. Qualifying up front will normally translate to running up front on race day at Kentucky. Salaries are based on DraftKings.

High Salary ($9,000+)

Kyle Busch ($11,500)

Kyle Busch is the highest priced driver on the slate at Kentucky. In his eight career starts his worst finish is 12th and he has seven Top 10s. Busch also has two wins and six Top 5s here. He has never had a Driver Rating below 108 at this track. Busch has ran the second most fastest laps over the past three years and has led 112 laps since 2016. He is a great choice this week if you can afford him.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Once again he is my favorite NASCAR DFS driver to put up the most points. Truex Jr. has been a major force here over the past few years. He won in 2017 and 2018, both in dominating fashion. In 2017, he led 152 laps and had a Driver Rating of 149. The race in 2018 was no different as he led 172 laps with a Driver Rating of 148.9. He has won every stage over the past two years as well. I expect more of the same from him this weekend. He is again my top pick before qualifying.

Brad Keselowski ($10,000)

Keselowski has been boom or bust in NASCAR DFS at Kentucky. He has two unlucky finishes of 33rd and 39th but other than those he has never finished worse than seventh, winning three times. Keselowski comes at a bit of a discount compared to the top guys but has just as good, if not better history here than anyone. If you are looking for a more balanced lineup, Keselowski is a great elite option.

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Larson has somewhat debunked the trend of needing to start up front at Kentucky. Larson has put up back to back impressive races despite poor starting positions. In 2018, Larson started in 18th and finished ninth and in 2017 Larson started in 40th and finished second. His Driver Ratings of 96.2 and 107.6 in those two races were impressive. If you are looking for a Place Differential high upside play, Larson could be that option if he continues to qualify here as he has in the past.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Erik Jones ($8,900)

Erik Jones has finishes of sixth and seventh in two races at Kentucky. Jones is also coming in with some confidence as he had Top 10 finishes in three of his last four races before the fiasco at Daytona. His Driver Rating of 99.3 here also shows his finishes were no flukes. Jones should run near the Top 5 in this one and I could see him competing for the win.

Alex Bowman ($8,500)

Bowman comes in with arguably more confidence than anyone in the Monster Energy Cup Series. Bowman picked up his first career win two weeks ago at Chicagoland, also a 1.5 mile track. He earned 95 NASCAR DFS points in that win. Although I am not predicting a win, he has displayed great speed all year and this is a track where speed is huge. Having a car that can qualify up front is so important and he normally gives a good run to the pole. I expect him to start in the Top 10 and run there all day.

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Blaney just continues to drop in salary and I am not sure why. He did run into some bad luck in the middle of the season but he had three straight Top 10s going into last week and seems to be rounding into form at the right time. Blaney has back to back Top 10s at Kentucky and finished second here last year with a Driver Rating of 121.4. He started seventh and ran fourth and third in the two stages, as he kept getting better all race and ran up front all day. Get on Blaney before his NASCAR DFS price jumps, as he regains his early season form.

Daniel Suarez ($7,600)

Suarez is another guy with only a few races at Kentucky. He has shown decent speeds here in the past with starting positions of 11th and ninth to go with finishes of 15th and 18th. He has been pretty consistent all year as well and this is a low price for him. Suarez has seven Top 10s this year and he should be able to get close to that this week.

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

David Ragan ($5,700)

Ragan has never finished in a worse position than he qualified at Kentucky. He has positive Place Differentials of six, two, nine, and seven over the past four races at this track. Ragan can get you positive PD points. At this price, he will be a good NASCAR DFS value.

Bubba Wallace ($5,500)

Wallace has a much higher Driver Rating at Kentucky than anyone else in this price range. His Driver Rating of 64.8 over the past two years at this track is in line with drivers like William Byron and Ryan Newman, who are priced at $7,500 and $7,900. His two career races here ended with finishes of 27th and 11th.

*Check back after qualifying for the post qualifying report.

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Qualifying always plays a huge part in assembling a NASCAR DFS lineup at Restrictor Plate tracks and that’s what we have this weekend. The Coke Zero Sugar 400 will be Saturday night at Daytona. We will take a quick look at which values have changed after qualifying and who to target.

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Value Increased

There were a lot of low priced drivers who also qualified low that I mentioned in my main preview article. We will take a look at those who have increased values after qualifying.

Ryan Preece has been a good Restrictor Plate driver early in his career and he could be a quality choice after qualifying 26th. He has huge Place Differential upside.

David Ragan qualified one spot lower in 27th and has been pretty good on Restrictor Plate tracks over his career. If he can crack the Top 15 he will be a great value at a low price.

My favorite bargain priced driver did not change after qualifying. Michael McDowell qualified 28th and has shown in the past he can make his way to the front from there. I would not be surprised if McDowell ends up as a Top 5 NASCAR DFS driver Saturday night.

Brendan Gaughan qualified in 39th and has been a bit of a Restrictor Plate specialist in the past. He is a lesser known name because of his limited schedule, which could keep him lower owned. He has huge upside starting so far back.

Austin Dillon qualified 21st and won the Daytona 500 in the past. He has decent value with his price and this starting position.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will start 19th and has one of the highest Driver Ratings over the past few years. He should provide good value.

Value Decreased

There were a lot of big names who qualified well and became risky plays for Saturday night. These guys could all run well but the risk of wrecking puts them lower in my ranks.

Joey Logano will start on the pole and that is concerning. Although he could lead a lot of laps, the leader often doesn’t run the fastest lap at Daytona. Fast laps are worth more than laps led, which limits his upside.

Kyle Busch is starting second and has all of the same concerns as Joey Logano. He is even higher priced which will make me stay away from him even more than Logano.

Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr. fill out the Top 5. Their values all took a hit after qualifying.

More big names are in the Top 10 and sixth through 10th goes as follows: Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliot, Kurt Busch, Alex Bowman, and Ryan Blaney. These drivers are in a better spot than those in the Top 5 but are still risky plays.

Top NASCAR DFS Plays

Michael McDowell ($5,700)

Brendan Gaughan ($7,200)

Erik Jones ($8,800)

Avoid

Joey Logano ($10,200)

Kyle Busch ($11,000)

Alex Bowman ($8,600)

Wild Card NASCAR DFS (High Risk – High Reward)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

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The NASCAR Monster Cup Series heads to Daytona for the second time this season after an exciting Camping World 400. Alex Bowman held off a late charging Kyle Larson to get his first career win in the Cup Series last weekend. NASCAR DFS players need to be aware that the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona will be on Saturday night.

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Outlook

The strategies for races at Daytona and Talladega are completely different than for any other race tracks. Place Differential is the most important stat for these two tracks. Starting in the back does not signify a slow car in these races and provides upside compared to someone starting near the front. There is a some luck that goes into picking the drivers who will stay out of the wrecks but we can minimize that chance by rostering the ones who will get up front and stay there. It will be very important to check back after qualifying is done to see the high upside and low upside NASCAR DFS plays. These are guys I expect to run well but the picks can take a 180 degree turn depending on qualifying.

High Salary ($9,000+ on DraftKings)

I tend to stay away from the ultra high priced drivers at Restrictor Plate tracks because of the uncertainty that comes with these races. There are still a lot of good options here, especially in the lower range.

Joey Logano ($10,200)

Logano is priced as the fifth highest NASCAR DFS driver this week. In Logano’s last seven races at Daytona he has two DNFs. If you exclude those two races, Logano has not finished worse than sixth. His teammate Brad Keselowski is often referred to as the top Restrictor Plate driver, but I would take Logano over him. Keselowski has failed to finish in four of the last five races at Daytona since winning in 2016. Logano has a good Driver Rating of 82.3 at Daytona since February 2017. One thing that tends to cap Logano’s NASCAR DFS upside is that he qualifies well at Daytona, starting no worse than 15th since 2015. If he slips a little in qualifying he will be my top pick.

Chase Elliott ($9,900)

Although Elliott has had similar luck to Keselowski at Daytona, he has finished much better at Talladega. Elliott won at Talladega earlier this year and finished third there once last year. Elliott will be highly owned in NASCAR DFS but will most likely be less owned than the two right above him, Keselowski and Logano. He also qualifies well at the site but if he starts outside the Top 15 he will be a very popular NASCAR DFS choice.

Denny Hamlin ($9,000)

Denny Hamlin has been great at Daytona and is arguably the best driver at the site. Hamlin had a Driver Rating of over 100 eight times since 2012, which is really impressive for this type of track. He had one DNF in 2018 and one in 2017 but those are his only two DNFs since 2013. Since 2013, Hamlin has seven Top 6 finishes and two wins. He has been one of the most consistent drivers there and has shown a great ability to avoid wrecks. Hamlin is a bargain at $9,000 and should be considered for all lineups. He also qualified 10th or worse seven of the last 10 races at Daytona and started 35th or worse three times. He has a great feel for passing at Daytona and should provide huge upside.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

This is normally the salary range you need to nail if you want to be in the money in NASCAR DFS come race day. There are a lot of great Restrictor Plate options in this range.

Aric Almirola ($8,400)

Almirola, like many other big names, has crashed at Daytona in the past couple years. The last two races at Daytona, Almirola finished 32nd and 27th. That said, he has ran well until trouble came his way. He has a Top 10 Driver Rating at Daytona since February of 2017 and has been good going all the way back to his days in the 43 car. In Almirola’s last nine races at Restrictor Plate Tracks (including Daytona 500 qualifying races), he has an Average Finish of 11.11 and a Driver Rating of 85.8, which is eighth best in the series in that span.

Ryan Blaney ($9,300)

Blaney has been one of the best under the radar Restrictor Plate drivers since he joined the Cup Series. Since February of 2017, Blaney has the third best Driver Rating in the series at Restrictor Plate tracks and is tops at Daytona (96.2). He has led the most Daytona laps over that same span with 142. Blaney’s Average Starting Position is 14.8, which shows he can race up to the front in a hurry and stay there to avoid trouble. Blaney is my top NASCAR DFS value pick pre-qualifying and should provide value as long as he does not qualify in the Top 5.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,400)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is widely known as a good Super Speedway driver and the numbers back it up. Stenhouse Jr. ranks fourth in Driver Rating at Daytona since February of 2017 and he has an Average Finish of 18.2. In that same span, he has led the second most laps behind only Blaney with 95. Stenhouse Jr. won this race in 2017 when he had a Driver Rating of over 100.

Low Salary ($6,900 and Lower)

There are a lot of very intriguing options in this range this week. Rostering one or even two of these guys will open up a lot of room for higher priced drivers.

Ryan Preece ($6,000)

Although his experience at Restrictor Plate tracks is limited, Preece has been good early in his Cup Career. He has raced once at each Daytona and Talladega and has finishes of third and eighth to show for it. He has ran all the laps and combined for a plus 40 place differential.

Michael McDowell ($5,700)

McDowell has always shown up ready to go at Daytona and has finished all but one race there since 2013. The race where he did crash (July 2018) was his best showing ever there, in which he led 20 laps and had a Driver Rating of 101.8. Six of his last seven races at Daytona ended with a Top 15 finish and four of those were Top 10s. McDowell is my favorite bargain NASCAR DFS driver pre-qualifying.

David Ragan ($5,600)

David Ragan has always been one of my favorite sleeper Restrictor Plate drivers. He seems to have a knack for running up front and even has a win to his credit in 2011. He finished sixth in 2017 in a race that he ran in the Top 10 the entire way and he was able to lead four laps.

Cornerstones

This is a tough week to find two guys to use here as qualifying means so much. We will try and find two guys who I don’t expect to be on the front row.

Ryan Blaney and Michael McDowell are both way underpriced and both struggle to qualify at Daytona. Blaney’s Average Starting Position of 14.8 and McDowell’s of 21.8 both leave a lot of room for positive Place Differential. Their recent Daytona Driver Ratings of first and seventh show they are gruesomely underpriced. These two should allow you to roster any big name you want in the high salary range as well.

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Chicagoland Speedway hosts the NASCAR Cup Series this upcoming weekend after a dominating performance from Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. Truex Jr. led 59 of the 90 laps and held off a late charging Kyle Busch for the win. Those two were way in front of the third place finisher, Ryan Blaney, who was over 30 seconds behind. Truex Jr. ,has a great chance to get a repeat win as he won two of the last three races at Chicagoland to go with a fourth place finish last year.

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Outlook

Chicagoland is a 1.5 mile track, with 267 laps, where starting up front does not always mean a driver will finish up front. Only one time since 2005 has the winner came from the front row. This shows that we could have some huge upside drivers who will be starting farther back in the pack. Checking back for our post-qualifying update will be key to putting together a good lineup. Let’s take a look at some of the best values on the slate before qualifying. Salaries are based on DraftKings.

High Salary ($9,000+)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)

Coming off a dominating performance at Sonoma, Truex Jr. should again be the top play this week. He comes in as the third highest priced driver and I believe he should be the top priced. Kyle Busch, the highest priced driver, did win at the site last year but his recent history is not as good as Truex’s. That win was Busch’s only Top 5 since 2013. Truex Jr. has three straight Top 5s and comes in with more confidence and momentum than any other driver in the series. He has not had a Driver Rating under 108 in his last four races at Chicagoland and was over 126 twice. Truex Jr. will be my main target among the high salary drivers.

Chase Elliott ($9,700)

Elliott has a great history at Chicagoland and comes in at his most affordable price since April. He has raced at this site three times in the Cup series with finishes of third, second, and 19th. Even in the 19th place finish, he was second and fourth in the two stages, showing he ran better than he finished. Elliott was the third best car at Sonoma last week before blowing his engine and he should have some confidence coming in. Elliott had 13 straight Top 15s, and five Top 5s in his last six races before the past two down weeks. He should be able to get back to that form at one of his best tracks. Elliott has the top Driver Rating at this track with a 111.4, and the best Average Running Position by a decent margin at 5.064. Elliott should run in the Top 5 most of the day and will be in a great position late in the day.

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Larson has finished no worse than seventh in all but one of his career starts at Chicagoland. His career Driver Rating of 101.9 ranks fourth in the series and his Average Running Position of 8.848 ranks third. He is behind Jimmie Johnson in both stats and most of Johnson’s excellence at this track came back in the early 2000s, so you can bump him up in those stats in recent years. Larson has yet to put it all together in a points race this year but this is a great track for him and he should be able to contend.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Denny Hamlin ($8,500)

Denny Hamlin has a really good track history at Chicagoland and has not finished worse than seventh since 2013. His DR over the past five years averaged over 102. He has also ran pretty well recently and led at least one lap in each of the Cup Series’ last four races. Hamlin should be priced above $9,000 at one of his best tracks and he provides great value at Chicagoland.

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Blaney is coming into this weekend at Chicagoland with some momentum after finishing third at Sonoma. He has two Top 10s in a row and four straight Top 15s. Blaney’s career at Chicagoland doesn’t really stand out, as he has an Average Finish of 11th and a DR of 86.7. He also comes in at his lowest price in any points race this year and $2,800 under where he peaked. Blaney has shown the ability to get on some hot streaks and I believe he can use his recent momentum to better his career Chicagoland numbers. He seems underpriced here and should return really good value.

Aric Almirola ($8,200)

We are working off of only one race to show us Almirola’s potential at Chicagoland. When he ran with the 43 car, he didn’t show much and only had one Top 10 in his six starts. Last year, driving for Stewart-Haas, although the finish doesn’t show it, Almirola ran really well. His Driver Rating was very high at 109.8 and he led 70 laps but finished 25th. This is a price where we can invest in Almirola.

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000)

This is another track, like Sonoma, where Johnson used to dominate and has fell off a bit lately but has still been serviceable. He has finished no worse than 14th since 2010 and although he doesn’t have a win at the site he has been very good. His career DR of 110.2 is second best in the series since ’05. As said, this number has dropped lately but not plummeted and his DR is at 97.7 over his last five races at Chicagoland. Johnson should once again return good DFS value at this low of a price.

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

If Dillon continues to be priced this low I will continue to roster him. His career at Chicagoland is not too bad other than a few outlier DNFs. He has finished 16th or better in the three races other than his DNFs. His DR (74.6) is far superior at Chicagoland than that of the other drivers in this salary range. Dillon should again be able to be counted on for a Top 15-20 finish with some upside.

Cornerstones

The two cornerstones are the two drivers who I think provide the best values this week.

Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin both seemed to be underpriced and provide great DFS value this weekend. I think Truex Jr. will again compete for this win this week and Denny Hamlin should run in the Top 5 for a majority of this race and could also get his first win of the year here.

*Check back after qualifying for the post qualifying report. This will be very important this week as Chicagoland has proven to be an easy place to pass and pick up spots gained points.

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