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Ronald Acuna Jr

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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Derby.  For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer.  Within the game there are different tiers you can play.  .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double.  1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays out 5x your entry fee.  2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 10x your entry fee. 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls

Home Run Derby

Ronald Acuna vs. Chase De Jong

On the year De Jong is getting crushed by righties.  He’s giving up a 51% fly ball rate and a near 46% hard hit rate.  These two numbers have combined to give righties a .326 ISO against him.  What do the Braves have? One of the best right handed hitters in the game.  Mr. Ronald Acuna. If we look at pitch mix we should expect a big night from Acuna.  De Jong is going to throw a heavy mix of fastballs and sliders to Acuna.  Acuna has high ISO’s greater than .282 to both of these pitches with hard hit rates greater 48%.  Confidence level – Very High

Nick Castellanos vs. Mike Minor

Over the past 30 days Minor is giving up home runs at a pretty quick pace.  Basically 1 every 5 innings.  So we know he’s guaranteed to give up at least 1 a game.  My hunch is that the home run in this game comes from Castle.  I’m going with Castellanos due to him crushing lefties.  This year he has a .281 ISO against them to go along with a .460 wOBA.  Confidence level – High

Mike Zunino  vs. Logan Allen

Logan Allen hasn’t pitched much in the majors this year, but when he has it hasn’t been good.  In his last 3 starts at the major league level he’s given up 7 homers.  I’m going to chase that.  The guy I’m going to chase with is Mike Zunino.  Zunino is a lefty killer.   This year he has an insane .526 ISO against lefties.  He is absolutely crushing the ball coming from south paws.  One of Allen’s favorite pitchers to righties is his sliders which he throws nearly 30% of the time.  While Zunino has a high whiff rate to the pitch, he also has a 63% hard hit rate with a .286 ISO.  There’s a good chance if he connects, it’s leaving the park.  Confidence level – Medium

More or Less – Cubs at Phillies

Zach Davies Over/Bryce Harper Over

I would never call Davies a strike out pitcher.  Over the past 30 days he has just a 20% K rate.  But this is the Phillies and they strike out a ton.  In the past week they have a 26% K rate.  All we need from Davies today is 4 strike outs.  Being that he’s struck out 4 in 5 out of his last 6 outings and the Phillies are a high strike out team, I’m going with the over on this one.

While I like Davies to get his 4 K’s today, I also like him to give up a few walks and a handful of hits.  Davies’ walk % jumps from 10% against righties to 15% against lefties.  I like Harper for at least 1 walk today as I can see Davies trying to pitch around him.  Once Davies is out we’ll get to take advantage of the Cubs porous bullpen.  I like Harper for at least 1 walk today and a homer.  I’m going with the over on this one too.

MKF Wrap up

That’s a wrap folks. Let’s watch those homers fly out of the park tonight!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s monster 14-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 4:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The weather concerns in this slate are sparse and minor, and we shouldn’t be concerned about any delays that could impact the pitchers we’re targeting today.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

There’s definitely part of me who wants to roster Trevor Bauer, and the Dodgers RHP is certainly worth a look on DK at a discount, but on FD, Burnes makes the most sense as top dog, as he possesses the most strikeout upside on the slate. While some simulations actually have Bauer projected for a higher total tonight (even WinDaily’s model gives Bauer the slight value edge — likely due to the TEX team K rate of 26.8% vs. RHP), the new crackdown on foreign substances has had a detrimental effect on the K numbers of a few pitchers, “Tricky Trevor” included. Burnes, as Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 6/12 Starting Rotation article, is coming off a monster start where he racked up 13K and 70 FD points. He’s a top five MLB pitcher and FanDuel’s scoring allows him and his 18.5% swinging-strike rate (a metric that ranks behind only Jacob deGrom this season) the chance at 60+ each and every night he takes the mound. We’ll have to get a little creative with our hitting stacks to build something we can be confident with, but Burnes is a great option for cash games and I’ll be using him in some GPPs as well.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

For the second straight week, Muskrat Joe takes our top value spot. He was serviceable in that role last week with a 10 K outing, but he did get knocked around a little bit to the tune of 9 hits and 3 ER — and the pedestrian 5.0 IP kept him from receiving the crucial quality start bonus we need from our SP. Adam and I both like him for today’s slate, and the fact that he’s kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP under 3.00 in this career year make me happy to recommend him against the Mets. who strike out at a team rate of 23.7%. Musgrove is carrying a career-high 34.2% K rate and limiting his free passes, and the Mets don’t have their usually lefty firepower without a few of their better offensive players. Joe’s unlucky 6/5 start still yielded 36 FD points, and this time he’s the same price and should eclipse the 40 mark.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

I was actually a little giddy when I saw that Adam was on Taillon as a GPP value play today, because he’s one of the first options I considered when I thought “contrarian play” for this slate. Taillon is effective against right-handed bats and the Phillies (who have a bunch of them) strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB (26.4% — tied with MIA and MIL). I wouldn’t blame anyone for going a little safer with value options like TB LHP Rich Hill ($7,700 vs. BAL), but the Orioles relatively low K rate (20.2%) vs. LHP makes me think he lacks the same upside, value and leverage for GPPs. If we want to stack some of the best bats, we’ll need what Taillon offers in salary relief to get there.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

AS of 11:11 a.m. EST, there’s no line yet on this game, but you’d have to imagine that the high-powered Braves offense is projected for 5+ runs against a 27-year-old rookie making just his second major-league start. Thompson’s minor-league metrics don’t jump off the page and the Braves have just too much firepower to worry about using them. Go with Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and a still-discounted Austin Riley ($2,700) in a four-man stacks, swapping out Albies for value options (and righty mashers) William Contreras ($2,200) and Abraham Almonte ($2,100) if you need the salary savings to get four Braves in your build.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

The Brewers have a bunch of risky but potent hitters in their lineup to go along with the consistently excellent bat of Christian Yelich ($3,800), including Avisail Garcia ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), Luis Urias ($2,700) and Willy Adames ($2,200). Left-handed OF Jace Peterson is also an option at just $2,200. I’m particularly interested in four-man combos that prominently feature Narvaez, Yelich and Vogelbach as a three-man core, with Urias, Garcia, Peterson and Adames alternately making up the fourth Brewer bat. Giddyup!

Update: Luis Urias is sitting this one out.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

The A’s are never all that popular as a team stack on big slates, and today they could be in for an offensive explosion against Jackson Kowar, who carries a 54.00 ERA after one career start — a rocky debut outing against the Angels on Monday. The usual suspects are in play here, from “Mashing” Matt Olson ($3,500) to leadoff hitter Mark Canha ($3,700) and a slew of low-priced options including Tony Kemp (just $2,000!), Jed Lowrie ($2,900) and Sean Murphy ($2,400). I’m also quite enamored with Seth Brown ($2,400) as a risk-reward value option, and I’ll be mixing and matching a few different four-man combinations of these six A’s hitters in my large-field GPP entries.

Update: Both Lowrie and Canha are not starting on Saturday.

Other stacking options: NYY RH bats vs. PHI RHP Vince Velazquez, CIN LH bats vs. COL RHP German Marquez

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some nasty storms firing up later tonight in the area of the White Sox at Royals game but other than that no major weather concerns for the 7:05 slate.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

The pitching in the main slate is pretty ugly, though you should check out the deep dive Adam Strangis gave us in his 5/8 Starting Rotation piece for more info. Kershaw is the top spend of the main slate and I’ll probably be avoiding Lance Lynn and the chance for a weather-impacted start for the White Sox hurler in Kansas City. I do like one pitcher a lot more for GPP value, but it’s silly to think anyone has higher floor tonight than a future HOFer in Kershaw facing their Pasadena counterparts. The Angels — slightly below league average against lefties — have a low team strikeout rate (second-lowest in baseball at 21.6%), but they also have the lowest projected run total of the 14 teams that encompass this slate. Kershaw got knocked around by the Cubs on May 4 but threw just 39 pitches and should be plenty ready for a MLB DFS rebound on short rest.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($7,900)

Another solid pitcher looking to bounce back from a bad outing, Anderson didn’t fare well against the high contact Blue Jays in his last start, failing to get into one of his customary bat-missing grooves. But the Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in the majors this year (27.9%) and that’s what I’m looking for on FanDuel, where “Ks are King” for SP in MLB DFS. Anderson whiffs over 10 batters per 9 IP, and he’s been plagued by an abnormally high HR/FB rate so far this season. Expect him to notch himelf 7-8 KS and stand a very good shot at a quality start/win with his Atlanta Braves standing at -170 to -180 favorites at home.

Contrarian GPP Value: Garrett Richards ($7,400)

Richards has shown the ability to strike out 10+ batters in an outing, which he accomplished against the Mets on April 27 in a monster 58-point FanDuel performance. The Orioles aren’t the pushovers they were a couple years ago, but the team K rate is still 24.6% and their measly team wRC+ of 89 is uninspiring from a DFS perspective. If you’re looking for an off-the-radar play with some upside as a pivot from chalk and the obvious GPP value that Anderson offers, Richards could be a fine MLB DFS leverage play who’s capable of 40-50 FP tonight. Over his past 12 IP, he’s struck out 17 batters to just one BB.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. PHI RHP Vince Velasquez

The Braves have the highest total of the slate (5 runs) and while Vince Velasquez has been a dynamic pitcher in the past, his 2021 numbers aren’t great. His painfully high walk rate (6.38 BB/9) and high FIP/xFIP (6.13/4.62) could be a huge problem against an admittedly circular Braves lineup that features some of the best batters in baseball vs. RHP, including Ronald Acuna ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,000), a switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,300) and value-laden Austin Riley ($2,500). There’s also Marcell Ozuna ($3,500) and young C William Contreras ($2,800). The top MLB DFS guys from Atlanta are not chap, so I’ll probably make some different combos of four-man stacks with Anderson and a few with Garrett Richards.

Value Stack: Houston Astros vs. TOR LHP Steven Matz

I thought the Astros would be more expensive, honestly, but the pricing hasn’t caught up to just how hot Alex Bregman ($3,600) is getting. Bregman’s .420 wOBA this season vs. LHP is a number that’s actually come down since 2019 — when it was .430 from 2018-19. The team’s wRC+ is 124 over the past 14 days, a mark equaled only by the Yankees, who have seen their bats heat up behind a rejuvenated Giancarlo Stanton. Yordan Alvarez ($3,700) is a lefty who mashes lefties and both Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900) and Carlos Correa ($3,100) have massive HR upside in a lineup that produces lots of runs. Did I mention that Jose Altuve ($3,400) has four hits including a HR) in his last nine AB? Even Michael Brantley ($3,000) works just fine as a contrarian LHB play as the No. 2 hitter in a 1-4 stack here, and nobody’s price is too outrageous.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles LHP Zac Lowther

We know that Bregman mashes lefties, but only Nolan Arenado (.460 wOBA, but with the boost of Mile-High home games) and J.D. Martinez and his .457 wOBA ($4,300) have done more against LHP since 2017. Mrtinex makes foe a great anchor in a four-man Red Sox stack that also includes Rafael Devers ($3,500) — who boats a .410 wOBA in 30 AB vs. LHP this season — Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) and the sneaky Marwin Gonzalez ($2,400), if he gets another spot near the top of the lineups tonight. Stay tuned to see who gets the final nod in the Red Sox starting nine hitters, but a core of Martinez, Devers and Bogaerts is a great start against the inexperienced Lowther, who is bound to struggle against the Sox tonight in Baltimore.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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The 10/6 DFS MLB Picks is all about the National League Divisional Series. Get your Fantasy football lineups in and let’s focus on making the long green, diamond style.

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10/6 DFS Showdown

Using the FanDuel template, it’s 2x the points for MVP, 1.5x the points for All-Star and regular production for the three Utility spots. October is filled with unsung efforts, something to keep in mind when filling out the Utility roles. Look for players who’ve had success this season against a particular team, along with taking a gander of recent production. I’m a strong believer in OPS, more so if a strong OPS is bolstered with stolen bases.

Atlanta at St. Louis Showdown Picks

MVP (2x): Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL, $9500: Slow start in the first two games, but he’s a .381/.458/.714 hitter versus the Cards this season with a pair of homers and six runs scored.

All-Star (1.5x): Marcell Ozuna, OF, STL, $8000: Went 4-for-8 in first two games of NLDS. Does have a pair of regular season homers off Atlanta pitching.

Utility: Brian McCann, C, ATL: Has produced 12.2 FanDuel points in the first two games. No homers but did have a .357/.412/.357 slash line against the Cards in the regular season.

Utility: Tommy Edman, 3B, STL, $7000: Scoreless in Game 2 yet had produced 43.9 FD points in his previous three games. Has a .929 OPS when batting second in the order.

Utility: Yadier Molina, C, STL, $5500: The pop may be waning, but Molina was an effective .284 when batting sixth with seven of his 10 homers coming from that spot in the order.

LA Dodgers at Washington Showdown Picks

MVP (2x): Trea Turner, SS, WAS, $9000: Three of his first four postseason hits have been for extra bases. Has a .511 slugging percentage at home and is 15-for-16 (93.7%) in stolen bases at Nationals Park.

All-Star (1.5x): Max Muncy, 2B, LAD, $8000: Owns a career homer off Nats starter Anibal Sanchez. Is more effective on the road, sporting a .939 OPS with 22 homers and 56 RBI outside of Dodger Stadium.

Utility: Howie Kendrick, 1B, WAS, $5500: Like Turner, Kendrick will be more valuable when at home. Went .374/.430/.638 (1.068 OPS) with 10 homers at Nationals Park.

Utility: Corey Seager, SS, LAD, $6000: Homered at Nationals Park this season. The pop was there in September (.938 OPS, seven homers). Is overdue for a breakout, so roll the dice and run with him.

Utility: Will Smith, C, LAD, $6500: Mashed righties to a 1.019 OPS with 12 of his 15 homers coming off them. Had four hits in six at-bats with a homer and two doubles at Nationals Park.

10/6 DFS Pitching Picks

1) Mike Soroka, ATL at STL (DK $7,500, FD $8,700)

The best of a pretty uninspiring quartet of pitchers, Sorka should be good for about 27-30 points at FanDuel and 14-17 points at DraftKings. His ability to keep the ball in the yard (0.72 HR/9) is bolstered by his low 2.11 BB/9 rate. Sorka is stingy when it comes to allowing fly balls (25.3%).

2) Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD at WAS (DK $8,900, FD $10,300)

Road ERA of 2.72 is solid, but it’s not the 1.93 ERA Ryu posted this season at Dodger Stadium. Goes from averaging better than a strikeout per inning at home to just 69 Ks over 89.1 innings on the road. However, Ryu allowed just one run in 14.2 frames of work versus the Nationals this season.

3) Adam Wainright, STL vs. ATL (DK $8,500, FD $5,700)

It’s easy to forget Wainright still averaged 8.06 K/9 and held batters to a 28.7% fly ball rate. The 41.9% hard contact rate is a bit concerning, but I’ll put faith in Wainright’s 3.38 ERA and 1.103 WHIP over 12 previous NLDS outings.

4) Anibal Sanchez, WAS vs. LAD (DK $5,500, FD $7,400)

Sneaky enough to run with. Sanchez has three starts of at least 40 points at FanDuel dating back to August 23, with two of his last three starts producing 40 and 46 FD points, respectively. The Dodgers will be hard-pressed to get solid contact off Sanchez, who limited batters to a 31.6 hard contact rate off him this season.

10/6 DFS Hitters

10/6 DFS C: Will Smith, LAD (DK $4,100, FD $3,400)

Off to a slow start in the NLDS, Smith is the best bet to score the most points at the position. I’d pay a little extra to assure his spot in the lineup. Again, keep in mind he did hit well the previous time he played at Nationals Park.

10/6 DFS 1B: Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (DK $3,600, FD $2,600)

Owns a .966 OPS versus left-handers. He’s going to offer enough value to allow DFSers to spend liberally elsewhere.

10/6 DFS 2B: Ozzie Albies, ATL (DK $4,400, FD $3,400)

I’ll pay just enough to get Albies and his 42.3% hard contact rate against Wainright. Albies also has a 25.5% line drive rate.

10/6 DFS 3B: Matt Carpenter, STL (DK $3,900, FD $2,900)

The oldest son of my high school baseball coach had two homers, five RBI and a 1.096 OPS in 23 at-bats versus Braves pitching this season.

10/6 DFS SS: Corey Seager, LAD (DK $4,000, FD $3,200)

Falls into my “I have a hunch about this guy” section of the 10/6 DFS MLB Picks.

10/6 DFS OF: Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL (DK $5,500, FD $4,200)

Slightly better OPS (.885) on the road than at home (.880). Acuna did hit 23 of his 41 homers outside of Atlanta.

10/6 DFS OF: Nick Markakis, ATL (DK $3,600, FD $2,800)

Has five hits in nine career at-bats versus Wainright (1.525 OPS).

10/6 DFS OF: Joc Pederson, LAD (DK $4,400, FD $3,300)

Potential to explode: Pederson has four games of at least 22.90 FD points since September 25.

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We’ve got a 13-game main slate for 9/24 DFS and while a playoff picture is finally emerging and the season is winding down, there are still some high-upside hitters and stacks to get you prepped to win some green!

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9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Red Sox at Edinson Vólquez/Ariel Jurado

The Red Sox shouldn’t have problems getting to either Vólquez, who’s having a last hurrah in the big leagues before retiring, or Jurado, who has a 5.73 ERA this season and has trouble getting Ks. You may want to skip Betts, who’s been getting rest since coming back from a foot injury, but grab shares of J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and some of the more inexpensive bats (Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley) that should help you make salary. I think the 2-5 plus Christian Vazquez (the projected 7 hitter) might be my favorite stack among the Red Sox bats.

Houston Astros at Justin Dunn/Tommy Milone

The Astros are always worth looking to considering their 121 team wRC+ and .349 wOBA, but they face a couple mashable pitchers and you don’t have to worry about splits since they rake just about everybody. Get some shares of the red-hot George Springer (three HRs on Sunday) as well as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuri Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez. they have the highest implied total among the teams with set lines so far.

TorontoBlue Jays at Dylan Bundy

These teams have been bashing each other’s brains in, and while I prefer the Blue Jays side of this offensive tilt, the entire game stack is in play. It’s been a GPP winner recently, so I have no qualms about rolling out the usual suspects again: Cavan Biggio, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez, and value bats like Brandon Drury and Teoscar Hernandez – especially if Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. (illness) sits for a second consecutive day.

9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider 

Chicago Cubs at Mitch Keller – The Cubs are nearly out of the playoff picture thanks to the Cardinals, but for 9/24 DFS you shouldn’t consider them officially dead yet – and they’re a bunch who can still pile on the runs. The Pirates home park isn’t the best venue for stacks, so ownership should be relatively low.

Atlanta Braves at Danny Duffy – Plenty of bats to like for this potent Braves lineup facing the lefty in Kansas City, you’ll just have to leave out a couple since they’re all so good. I may be fading the Yankees in Tampa, but I’m not worried about the Braves against a hittable pitcher in the heartland.

Cleveland Indians vs. Hector Santiago – The Indians aren’t as consistent as the Braves offensively, but they have a bunch of lefty mashers with a special affinity for Santiago. The implied run total is over 5.5, which means you should have shares of the 1-5 bats along with some exposure to Franmil Reyes and Jordan Luplow. I might take a wait-and-see approach with Jose Ramirez, who’s set to be activated from the IL.

Oakland Athletics at Dillon Peters – The A’s aren’t as good against LHPs (.305 team wOBA), but it’s a viable contrarian stack to consider for 9/24 DFS. The implied total is also over 5.5 runs and seems a bit high — so tread lightly with this bunch.

 

9/24 DFS Hitting Catcher  

Christian Vazquez, BOS at TEX

DK ($4,600)   FD($3,200)

Vazquez got a day off yesterday against the Rays, but he should beback in the lineup Tuesday in Texas. He’s got 3 homers in his last seven gamesand his overall numbers in 2019 have been impressive: .273/.316/.472 with 22 HRs.Digging a little deeper, we find a .232 road ISO, with 14 of his dingers comingaway from Fenway Park.

9/24 DFS Hitting First Baseman 

Carlos Santana, CLE at DET

DK (4,900)   FD ($4,000)   

Santana is having a career year, and I’m plugging him into most ofmy GPP builds against Hector Santiago. Hisseason slash sits at .288/.403/.529 with a 139 wRC+ and he’s destroying LHPsthis season (1.015 OPS, 162 wRC+ and .421 wOBA). There are many ways to go at1B on this slate, but Santana is my bet for a monster game.

9/24 DFS Hitting Second Baseman 

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,900)   FD ($3,700) 

Did you expect me to play some other than Biggio? He hit anotherbomb last night and has ben raking every time I use him in GPPs – from lastTuesday’s cycle and Thursday’s home run to helping me spike some decent cashesin last night’s Rally contests on FanDuel. He’s way too cheap on that site andhis price tag on DK should keep him from being chalk – especially with so manyhigh-priced arms.

9/24 DFS Hitting Third Baseman 

Manny Machado, SD vs. LAD (3B/SS on DK)

(DK $3,700)   FD($3,000)

It’s been a disappointing season for Machado, but he’d like to endit with some standout performances against his old team, the Dodgers. I lovethe matchup against LHP Rich Hill since Machado – with some really pronouncedsplits this season – hits .314/.401/.683 against southpaws. The price is rightfor Machado, and using him as a one-off or with OF Hunter Renfroe ($4,000 onDK, $3,100 on FD) – who’s another viable Padres power hitter with a 132 wRC+against LHPs – makes a lot of sense if you’re trying to find some value and buildingmultiple lineups.

9/24 DFS Hitting Shortstop 

Corey Seager, LAD at SD

DK ($4,700)   FD($3,800)

Seger is finally hitting his groove as we near the postseason, andnow is a great time to plug him in at SS in the 9/24 DFS main slate. He’s got a123 wRC+ against RHPs and has a .381 WOBA and .314 ISO sine the start of September.There’s no time like the present, and presently, Corey Seager is raking.

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9/24 DFS Hitting Outfielders 

Cody Bellinger, LOS at SD (1B/OF on DK)

DK ($4,800)   FD($3,200) 

Cody might just ring that bell again on Tuesday night against “BadRonald” Bolanos, who’s given up three homers in 14 innings. Bellinger’s 166wRC+ and ridiculous .314/.414/.641 slash line vs. RHPs means he’ll be in all thelineups I can afford him in, regardless of the venue and the fact he’s on the road(149 wRC+ in away games this season).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at KC

DK ($5,300)   FD ($4,400)

He makes for a fine one-off if you’re not using the Braves stack, and he’s putting up obscene numbers against both LHPs and RHPs. Another interesting stat about Acuna is that he’s slashing a robust .281/.370/.510 with a 125 wRC+ at home and .279/.361/.527 with a 128 wRC+on the road. There’s not a day that I don’t consider him, even against the league’s top pitchers and regardless of the lofty price tag.

Austin Hays, BAL at TOR
DK ($3,800)   FD ($2,700) 

Hays had a monster night in Toronto on Monday and he’s once again in a good spot facing a lefty. The 24-year-old slugger is slashing .302/.362/.535 in the 15 games he’s played in the majors, and he’s still very inexpensive on both sites. If he’s in the Orioles lineup on Tuesday, I’ll be grabbing shares.

9/24 DFS Additional Stack Options:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $3,100 FD)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $4,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,700 DK,$3,900 FD)

2B: Jose Altuve ($4,700 DK, $4,200 FD), DJ LeMahieu ($5,000 DK)($4,200 FD – 3B)

3B: Gio Urshela ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,800DK, $3,200 FD)

SS: Francisco Lindor ($5,400 DK, $4,300 FD), Nico Hoerner ($3,700DK, $3,000 FD)

OF: Anthony Santander ($4,000 DK, $3,400 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,500DK, $3,500 FD), Randal Grichuk ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD), Ramon Laureano GPP($3,100 FD), Austin Riley GPP ($2,200 FD), Adam Duvall GPP ($2,400 FD)

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Today is thirsty Thursday, and I’m going to quench you with some easily digestible lineup selections for the 9/12 DFS main slate, which kicks off at 7:05 and has just seven games. We’ve got DFS stacks, one-offs and some standout options for GPPs, including one squad that’s bound to break through against a veteran hurler with limited stuff. Let’s go win some green!

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9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Atlanta Braves at Drew Smyly

I’m going GPP before cash here and picking on a pitcher with a 2.16% HR/FB rate in Drew Smyly. You can stack Coors all you want in the afternoon slates (what’s with the 2-1 games, fellas?), but I’m looking to a talented Braves lineup that’s loaded with powerful right-handed bats and some left-handed hitters like Freddie Freeman who don’t crumble when a southpaw is on the mound. Atlanta carries a .331 team wOBA against LHPs and Smyly is eminently hittable. The classic 1-5 stack is in play, as are platoon bats Austin Riley (.291/.375/.745 slash) and GPP favorite Adam Duvall (if he cracks the lineup).

LosAngeles Dodgers at Dylan Bundy

Yup, I’m going right back to the Dodgers despite an anemicperformance last night against John Means, who’s a pretty good pitcher in hisown right. Dylan Bundy is a lot easier to attack from both sides of the plate(.398 xwOBA vs. LHBs and .391 vs. RHBs), so I’m not concerned about keepinganybody off. Lefties Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger and Matt Beaty are all duefor offensive breakouts and Gavin Lux ($2,600 on DK, $2,800 on FD) and CoreySeager ($4,500 on DK, $3,600 on FD) are plenty affordable as well.

Houston Astros vs. Homer Bailey

His name is Homer, and these are the power-hitting Astros. I’m not trying to oversimplify things, because there’s plenty of data to support a blitz on Bailey –including a park shift that favors Houston over the veteran right-hander. Bailey has yielded a .429 xOBA to righties since 2018 when pitching his home games in Oakland and Kansas City, and the Astros are at home and have bats from both sides of the plate that I want exposure to here, including George Springer, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. Value options include Aledmys Diaz and Abraham Toro, not to mention inexpensive catcher Robinson Chirinos.

9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider 

Washington Nationals at Kyle Gibson

Boston Red Sox at Clay Buchholz

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jhoulys Chacin

 

9/12 DFS Hitting Catcher  

Francisco Cervelli, ATL at PHI

DK ($2,700)   FD ($2,300)

This is a pure value play considering the Braves have so much talent throughout their lineup and Cervelli does a pretty good job (.414 xwOBA) vs. LHPs. He’s a cheap fifth batter in Braves stacks on DK and makes for an inexpensive utility or C-1B play on FD — if you can stomach rostering just three other bats from this team.

9/12 DFSHitting First Baseman 

Mitch Moreland, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000)   FD ($2,800)   

You’re getting a great matchup in the middle of a stacked lineup for cheap price with Moreland. Big Mitch has BvP covered in a 4-for-8 small sample against Buchholz, who’s he’s homered against, and there’s plenty to like about going with this sneaky lefty at your 1B spot in a crowded GPP field focused on bigger names. Moreland has double-dinger potential and makes for a fine one-off or part of a Sox mini-stack.

9/12 DFS Hitting Second Baseman 

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($4,100)   FD ($3,300) 

Going right back to the well with Solak, who’s made me look good in this spot, and doesn’t command a very high price. The Rangers are probably only worth considering for a contrarian, large-field GPP stack because they’ve struggled against lefties this season (just a .308 wOBA and 82wRC+), but Solak offers a .379 ISO against LHPs and the venue is ripe for hitting. I’m not scared of Brendan McKay, even though he’s been able to whiff some bats here and there, and Solak is in the heart of the Rangers lineup with plenty of run-producing opportunities.

9/12 DFS Hitting Third Baseman 

Josh Donaldson, ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200)   FD ($3,500) 

Donaldson is historically good against LHPs with a career xwOBA of .XXX and he’s destroyed Smyly in 19 career ABs, including nine hits, three HRs and a 1.629 OPS. Whatever sample size you’re looking at, he’s a great play in a hitter’s park in that potent Atlanta lineup. He and Acuna will be the main focus of my Braves stacks.

9/12 DFS Hitting Shortstop 

Corey Seager, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,500)   FD ($3,600) 

Even after a recent two-homer night, the price on Seager isaffordable and the slick young shortstop has resumed the No. 2 slot in the Dodgersorder. I’ve mentioned my affinity for attacking Bundy in Camden Yards, and thisslate provides an opportunity to get one of the highest upside shortstops (rightthere with Xander Bogaerts) at a cut rate.

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9/12 DFS Hitting Outfielders 

Andrew Benintendi, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000)   FD ($3,200) 

The Red Sox have been slumping at the plate, but Benintendi’s numbers over the past two seasons against RHBs (.405 xwOBA) make me excited to play him against Buchholz. There aren’t too many outfielders at this price point with as much run-producing upside.

Michael Brantley, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($4,300)   FD ($4,000) 

I have no qualms about you stacking the Astros outfield in its entirety and using both Alvarez and Springer, but if there’s one bat I’d lean towards as a one-off, especially if I’m building an expensive stack elsewhere, it’s Brantley. He’s always a little too cheap and offers plenty of upside with excellent numbers at home (.381 wOBA) and against RHPs (.207 ISO).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,500)   FD ($4,100) 

Acuna has a .488 xwOBA and .277 ISO vs. LHPs this season andremains the premier leadoff hitter in the NL. He’s an essential part of myBraves stacks, sometimes gets ignored because of his lofty price tag, and isplayable in both cash games and GPPs for his solid floor and soaring upside.

Additional options:

C: Robinson Chirinos ($3,800 DK), Reese McGuire ($3,300 DK)

1B: Jesus Aguilar ($2,800 FD), Matt Adams ($3,400 DK)

2B: Cavan Biggio ($4,200 DK) Brad Miller ($3,000 DK)

3B: Kyle Seager ($4,300 DK), Eugenio Suarez ($4,700 DK)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,000 DK), Xander Bogaerts (4,900 DK)

OF: Aristides Aquino ($3,700 FD), Philip Ervin ($3,300 DK),Jonathan Davis ($2,600 DK), Danny Santana ($4,700 DK) Jay Bruce (GPP option at 3,800on DK)

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To type the numbers 9/11 still causes waves of emotions 18 years after our nation endured one of the darkest days in its history.

I can still shut my eyes and remember how the day went for me in the Satellite Operations office of Fox Sports Net and how a long day of gut-wrenching emotions and visuals that still haunt me culminated in my sitting on the floor of my living room crying uncontrollably at 11:30 pm as the National Anthem was played in the backdrop of the names that were confirmed dead.

Obviously, choosing a winning DFS lineup is secondary to the importance of this date. At the same time, the heroism displayed on that warm Tuesday morning in New York City, Washington D.C. and over the skies of Pennsylvania is a strong reminder of how, as Americans, we persist.

Play Ball, and let’s chase the long green.

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9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Mitch Garver, MIN vs. WAS

DK ($5,700), FD ($3,200)

Garver capped his breakout season with his 30th home run of the season in Tuesday’s win over the Nationals. He now has four dingers in his last three games to go along with seven RBI. He’ll enter the day with a 30.5% HR/FB rate and even against Stephen Strasburg, I’d take Garver and his 46.2% hard contact rate. With a 47.7% fly ball rate and a start to September that has seen Garver’s OPS climb above 1.700, he’s a good 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks play behind the plate (although he’ll likely serve as the DH).

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Matt Olson, OAK at HOU

DK ($4,500), FD ($3,600)

Like Garver, Olson reached the 30-HR barrier on Tuesday, serving as the ring leader of the A’s 21-7 payback to the Astros. Olson swatted a pair of homers, drove in four runs and scored three times to pace what was a 25-hit assault. He’s been locked in of late, having recorded hits in nine of his last 11 games that includes five homers. As hard as Garver has hit the ball, Olson has been more pronounced with his swing, delivering hard contact at a 51.2% rate. You have to like the fact Olson is getting line drives at a solid rate (24.7%) while also driving the ball consistently (43.2% fly ball rate). Chances are good he’ll be facing a taxed Astros pitching staff, making him an even stronger option.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Ketel Marte, ARI at NYM

DK ($5,300), FD ($4,100)

One game after having a run of at least 21.20 FanDuel points in four of his previous five games, Marte got back on track with a pair of hits on Tuesday. Even with an 0-for-4 on Monday, Marte is hitting .481 (13-for-27) in his last eight games with three homers and 10 RBI. Although he hasn’t hit the Mets well this season, two of his seven hits resulted in slow trots around the bases. Good things indeed do happen when your Isolated Power improves by 90 points (.177 last season, .267 this year). Marte has nearly doubled his HR/FB%, standing currently at 20.4% after a 10.9% output in 2018. His .340 BABIP is yet another reason why he’s a solid 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks member.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Gleyber Torres, NYY at DET

DK ($9,400), FD ($4,000)

With D.J. LeMahieu getting Tuesday off, Torres filled the leadoff role. He proceeded to show why he costs a grip at DraftKings by leading off with his 36th homer of the season, helping to give him his fourth of double-digit scoring at FanDuel in his last five games. Torres has a “modest” .815 OPS against lefties (the Tigers will start southpaw Matthew Boyd tonight) yet his road OPS hovers near .950. He has an OPS over 1.200 over the past week and should be able to maintain his 42% fly ball rate.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Hunter Dozier, KC at CWS

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,900)

Dozier has multi-hit games in five of his last seven outings and has hit the White Sox well this season. In 48 at-bats against the Pale Hose, Dozier has a .354 batting average with three homers and nine RBI. The ability to draw walks has been a factor in Dozier’s 2019, as he sports a 10.3% walk rate along with elevating his BABIP from .296 last season to .342 this year. His 44.1% fly ball rate plays well in hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Park, even against a red-hot hurler like Reynaldo Lopez, who gets the nod for Chicago tonight.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Austin Meadows, TB at TEX

DK ($5,200), FD ($3,900)

With four homers in his last six games, Meadows is putting the Rays on his young back and carrying them closer to the AL Wild Card with each swing. Tuesday marked the sixth time in the last nine games Meadows have produced at least 20 FanDuel points and is on a September tear that has him hitting .536 with eight of his 15 hits going for extra bases. The line drives Meadows hit in the minors are now becoming homers, evidenced by his 18.7% HR/FB rate. If the Rays peg him in the #2 spot, Meadows is a very strong 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks play, as his OPS is at 1.400 when hitting second.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,000)

A three-hit effort on Tuesday continued Acuna’s success against Phillies pitching this season, as he is now at .357 with three homers, 10 RBI and 18 runs scored against them. Acuna smokes the ball at a 44.8% hard contact rate, but he’s becoming a complete hitter. He’s reduced his pull rate and is more of an all-fields hitter who is at 24.8% in HR/FB rate despite hitting fly balls 37.7% of the time. Philadelphia pitcher Zach Eflin has been an easy mark for Braves hitters this season, allowing 12 earned runs in 5.2 innings, so count on Acuna to help the Atlanta bats as extended batting practice against Eflin.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Wil Myers, SD vs. CHC

DK ($4,100), FD ($2,800)

Myers is looking to finish the season strong, stretching his hitting streak to 10 games on Tuesday night. Myers has added 21 points to his batting average since August 30 and is a bargain play at FanDuel. Keep that in mind as he has also been a solid hitter against lefties, producing an .898 OPS despite a .233 batting average. The recent run has helped boost his walk rate to 10.2% along with one of the few times this season Myers’ 48.3% hard contact rate is being put to good use.

9/11 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/11 Hitting Stack of the Day: Oakland A’s: The Astros will go with righty Jose Urquidy, so stack the Oakland lefty bats starting with Olson. Seth Brown ($3400 FanDuel) should be in the lineup as well. Jurickson Profar ($3900 DraftKings) is a solid stack option, but also keep righty bats Khris Davis (a cheap $2700 at FD) and Marcus Semien ($4600 DK) as options.

9/11 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Atlanta Braves: As previously mentioned, the Braves have hammered Eflin. Acuna is a lock, but Dansby Swanson ($2800 FD) is a value play. Brian McCann ($3500 DK)gets a favorable lefty/righty matchup as well. You have to like Josh Donaldson ($5100 DK) and Ozzie Albies ($3300 FD) among the buffet table of options.

9/11 Hitting Stack to Consider: Tampa Bay Rays: Texas starter Ariel Jurado has a 6.93 ERA in his last 10 appearances while hitters have teed off on him at a .320 clip and 1.60 WHIP. Meadows is front and center in a stack, with Avisail Garcia ($4300 DK) is a good 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks sleeper.

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It’s tasty Tuesday, and I’m feeling hungry for more action in some GPPs in 9/10 DFS. Let’s fill our plates with some prime MLB DFS hitting picks and satiating stacks for the massive 14-game 7:05 main slate, focusing on what promises to be a run-happy Coors game, a team from the West Coast arriving in a hitter’s paradise, and another sneaky stack or two in good matchups and park upgrades.

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9/10 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

St. Louis Cardinals at Chi Chi Rodriguez

The Redbirds have the highest implied total on the slate at 7+ runs and should have no problems hitting the weak offerings of Chi Chi Rodriguez into the cavernous, expansive gaps in the Coors power alleys. A full stack is in order here, with ample shares of the Cards’ 1-5 hitters – Dexter Fowler (DK $4,500, FD $3,600), Kolten Wong (DK $4,800, FD $3,500), Paul Goldchmidt (DK $5,100, FD $4,300), Marcel Ozuna (DK $5,300, FD $4,100),  and Paul DeJong (DK $4,800, FD $3,900), and a few combinations that include Yadier Molina (DK $4,300, FD $3,400), Tommy Edman (DK $5,400, FD $3,300) and value option Harrison Bader (DK $3,900, FD $3,000).

Los Angeles Dodgers at Ty Blach

When the Dodgers have faced Blach in the past, it’s been in San Diego or LA, but now they get the scuffling lefthander in Baltimore, where the balls jump out of the park in droves. Blach’s currently sporting a 10.95 ERA and 2.15 WHIP over 24.2 IP in the majors this season, and his minor league numbers are just as pathetic. There are several possible mixtures of the usual 1-5 hitters but A.J. Pollock (DK $4,700, FD $3,800), who has a .401 xwOBA versus LHPs since 2018, David Freese (who’s $5,400 on DK but just $2,700 on FD) and Kiké Hernandez (DK $4,000, FD $2,600) look like good targets to build from and add Cody Bellinger and/or Justin Turner (DTD).

Colorado Rockies at Michael Wacha

The Rockies have been in a hellish 3-17 nosedive in their past 20 games, but a return to Coors is just what they need to liven up that lumber and score some runs. They may not notch a win against the Cards, but the bats of Nolan Arenado (DK $5,300, FD $4,600), Trevor Story (DK $5,400, FD $4,500) and Charlie Blackmon (DK $5,500, FD $4,500) make for an appealing mini-stack if you can afford them. Wacha has an xwOBA approaching the .400 mark over the past two seasons, and the Rockies have the second highest implied total of the slate at over 6 runs.

9/10 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider 

Houston Astros at Tanner Roark

Minnesota Twins vs. Anibal Sanchez

 

9/10 DFS Hitting Catcher  

J.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($4,900)   FD ($3,800)

I love Realmuto at home against LHPs, and I professed as much in my firstpiece for WinDailySports.com. We’re going back to the well with the Phillies catcher facingMax Fried, who’s not as good against RHBs (.373 xwOBA since 2018). Realmuto’sbeen raking since the start of September and makes for a solid backstop andone-off to differentiate your lineups.

9/10 DFS Hitting First Baseman 

Paul Goldschmidt, STL at COL

DK ($5,100)   FD ($4,300)   

I mentioned him in my Cards stack above, but I’m including himhere to reiterate that I’ll be having close to 100 percent exposure to Goldy inthis matchup. The veteran first baseman has a .327/.415/.608 career slash with15 homers in 289 Coors field plate appearances, so he’s tops on my list andisn’t nearly as expensive as he should be.

9/10 DFS Hitting Second Baseman 

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($3,900)   FD ($3,300) 

Solak has made an immediate impression in DFS with a.328/.449/.500 slash in his first 19 games in the bigs, with a .320 ISO vs.LHPs. He’s going to be low-owned facing the capable Ryan Yarbrough, comes at adiscount, and bats fourth in a hitter’s park. There’s plenty to like if you’relooking for value component with some positional flexibility (2B/3B on DK) thatoffers ample upside.

9/10 DFS Hitting Third Baseman 

Rafael Devers, BOS at TOR

DK ($5,200)   FD ($3,800) 

Devers absolutely crushes Toronto pitching, and since we don’t know how long T.J. Zeuch will toe the slab on Tuesday, he’s a fine option no matter who’s on the hill. In 15 games against the Jays (59 AB) he’s slashing .441/.484/.915 with 8 homers and just 7 Ks. He’s expensive, but he should command less ownership than Nolan Arenado at the hot corner and offers a high-upside pivot from the Coors game

9/10 DFS Hitting Shortstop 

Paul DeJong, STL at COL

DK ($4,800)   FD ($3,900) 

Like the other Paul on this team, I’m having a hard timeclicking on any other name at his respective position. Trevor Story is obviouslyan option, but DeJong’s a little more affordable and has just as much upside ina larger implied total. He’s only played a couple games in Coors, but he has ahomer, sports a .411 road xwOBA over his past couple seasons, and shouldn’thave trouble with Chi Chi or the Rockies bullpen.

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9/10 DFS Hitting Outfielders 

A.J. Pollock, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,700)   FD ($3,800) 

We’rea few games removed from Pollock’s 3-HR day, but if there’s a spot to jump onboard, it’s now. He’s hitless in his last two games but gets a massive parkupgrade and shouldn’t be as highly owned as the Cards OF and some of the biggername bats. Dodgers OF Chris Taylor (DK $4,400, FD $2,800) could be the pivot ifyou’re looking to fit some different Dodgers bats and need some savings.

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200)   FD ($4,000) 

Acuna led off last night’s game with a homer and now has 38 round trippers on the season. He’s fared well against the Phillies this season with a .333/.452/.529 slash – and he’s got a massive .487 xwOBA and .279 ISO vs. LHPs. Jason Vargas has pitched well this season, but he’s benefited from a  low BABIP (.266) and has given up 15 HRs to RHBs.

Dexter Fowler, STL at COL

DK ($4,500)   FD ($3,600) 

Grabbing the leadoff hitter in any stack is always a smart move, andwhile Fowler doesn’t offer the same raw power as the other Cards bats, he’scertainly got the bat skills to rope some doubles and triples in Coors Field, wherehe began his Major League career. The numbers in that venue are staggering(.300/.397/.492 with 67 doubles, 35 triples and 29 HR in 342 games, 290 of whichhe started).

Additional options:

C: Yadier Molina, Austin Hedges (DK $2,600)

1B: Eric Thames (FD $2,700), Ryan O’Hearn (DK $3,400, FD $2,400)

2B: Kiké Hernandez (FD), Kolten Wong

3B: UPDATED (Gyorko NOT STARTING today) Yoan Moncada, Travis Shaw (value)

SS: Manny Machado (DK $4,000, FD $3,500), Jean Segura (DK$4,000, FD $3,000)

OF: Nick Castellanos (DK $4,500), Phillip Ervin (DK $3,200), Trent Grisham (DK $3,100), Yordan Alvarez (FD $4,200), Cody Bellinger, Austin Meadows

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Today we’ll be examining a fine 12-game Tuesday 9/3 DFS MLB slate (one without a super-obvious Coors Field game), looking to embrace the variance, find some compelling stacks to focus on in our lineup builds, and list some viable hitters in GPPs – as well as some additional plays that might be worth a punt or contrarian pivot.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

AtlantaBraves vs. Wilmer Font/T.J. Zeuch

The Braves have the highest implied total (6 runs) on the 12-game 7:05 slate, with the Dodgers close behind. Both Font and Zeuch (the proposed primary reliever who’ll be making his MLB debut) are RHPs — so it’s safe to stack the 1-5 hitters as there are no weak links in the bunch. Don’t overthink this one – the Braves have punished RHPs, are a better offense at home this season, and have plenty of value bats if you’re building a non-traditional stack.

LosAngeles Dodgers vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez

The Dodgers have six hitters in their projected lineup with ISOmarks north of .200 against RHP, including some of the best xwOBA marks on the slate(Will Smith at .487 and Cody Bellinger at .446). Feel free to attack Chi Chi’sterrible splits against lefties regardless of the barely beneficial shift awayfrom Coors. Joc Pederson (who you will have to double check on because he leftMonday’s game after a leaping catch at the wall), Corey Seager, Bellinger, A.J.Pollock and Matt Beaty should be the core of this group.

ClevelandIndians vs. Dylan Cease

It’s been a few days, but the Indians bats came alive last night and knocked around Ross Detwiler, and the matchup against Dylan Cease shouldn’t offer too much resistance. Cease is vulnerable to both RHBs and lefties, so it doesn’t really matter which side of the plate your stacked players hit from – just make sure you’re building around a core of Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado and Carlos Santana. You have myriad options for additional power bats in the heart of the lineup and a bit further down (Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Jakob Bauers), so it might be worth it to build some variety if you’re multi-entering in GPPs.

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider 

Minnesota Twins at Rick Porcello

Boston Red Sox vs. Randy Dobnak

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Matthew Strahm

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Dereck Rodriguez

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Sandy Alcantara

9/3 DFS Hitting Catcher  

JasonCastro, MIN at BOS

DK ($3,700)   FD($2,400)

We’re looking for some value at catcher given some of the prices of these bigger bats in the stacks we need to fit, and Castro is exactly the type of hitter we’re looking for – a sneaky option with ample power and plenty of bats surrounding him. If the Twins roll out Castro against Porcello, I’d be comfortable with the BvP data (5-for-13 with a HR) and overall against RHP (.476 xwOBA).

9/3 DFS Hitting First Baseman 

JoshBell, PIT vs. MIA

DK ($5,100)   FD($4,400) 

You’re going to get Josh Bell at a very low ownership, and while the $5,100 price seems oppressive, the Pirates still sport a decent implied total and Bell (.426 xwOBA vs. RHP) might fly under the radar in this slate. The Pirates aren’t the safest stack, but Bell stands out as an excellent one-off, especially if you’re steering clear of Freddie Freeman and looking for a more contrarian play.

9/3 DFS Hitting Second Baseman 

KoltenWong, STL vs. SF

DK($4,300)   FD ($3,100) 

Wong is red-hot at the plate, with a seven-game hitting streak and a triple in three straight games (the record is five, by Chief Wilson in 1912). A streaky hitter who’s having an excellent second half (.381/.462/.545 in 42 games since the break), Wong’s got an affordable price tag and could be banging out some more extra base hits from that 2-slot against the Giants.

9/3 DFS Hitting Third Baseman 

RafaelDevers, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,400)   FD($4,100) 

Devers and the Red Sox are a formidable stack against just about anyopposing pitcher, but this is an especially tasty matchup with rookie Randy Dobnakon the mound for the Twins. Since Anthony Rendon and Alex Bregman aren’t in idealspots Tuesday, I’m rolling with Devers and his obscene metrics vs. RHP (.429xwOBA, .247 ISO). He’s never far from a run-producing spot and he’s got all theprotection he needs surrounded by the Boston sluggers.

9/3 DFS Hitting Shortstop 

AdalbertoMondesi, KC vs. DET

DK ($5,200)   FD($3,100) 

Mondesiobviously missed being a part of the Royals lineup, because he went 4-for-5with two runs scored and three SB in the Royals’ 6-4 comeback win against theOrioles on Sunday. He’s facing a LHP in Daniel Norris on Tuesday and he’sclearly recovered from his shoulder injury – and while the price on DK issteep, he’s very affordable on FD.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Outfielders 

MattJoyce, ATL vs. TOR

DK ($3,900)   FD($2,400) 

Joyceis a classic value GPP play because of his power potential and assault on RHP(.392 xwOBA). It’s also helpful that both the projected starter and primaryreliever are right handers – which could give him an extra AB or two before he mustface a lefty out of the bullpen or get pulled for a pinch hitter or defensivereplacement. In a search for some bargains to offset the rest of the Bravesstack, Joyce could be a key cog.

MaxKepler, MIN at BOS

DK ($5,300)   FD($3,500) 

MaxKepler is batting leadoff for one of the top stacks of the day, so he’s definitelya fly ball hitter to build around despite his steep price tag on DraftKings. He’scoming off a 2-for-5 day in a win over Detroit and is slashing .258/.339/.537with 36 home runs and 90 RBI over 127 games in 2019. He’s an excellent roadhitter (.266/.357/.548) and he’s a real bargain on FanDuel at just $3,500.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. SEA

DK ($4,300)   FD($3,100) 

It’s always a weather-dependent recommendation to use or fade batsin Wrigley, so make sure there’s not a stiff breeze blowing in before youcommit to Schwarber here. The enigmatic Schwarber does his best work at homevs. RHP (125 wRC+ in 2019, .250/.355/.545 slash), and while he’s not the besthitter in high leverage spots (65 wRC+), that’s a figure that’s bound toimprove. King Felix is not the pitcher he once was, and it’s a fine spot forlefty mashers against him.

Additional 9/3 DFS hitting options (by position):

C: Carson Kelly, Chris Herrmann (value)

1B: Anthony Rizzo, Matt Olson

2B: Brock Holt (value), Eduardo Escobar

3B: Matt Carpenter, Abraham Toro

SS: Corey Seager, Nick Ahmed

OF: Matt Beaty, Dexter Fowler, Nick Castellanos, Adam Jones. Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado

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This Sunday August 11th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Catcher: Christian Vazquez ($2,700 FD) has gone deep seven times in 111 at bats this season. He is .257 ISO/.370 wOBA. Although he is not my favorite Red Sox bat (JD Martinez) he is going to have his opportunity to help clear the bases vs Patrick Sandoval in his second big league game this season. Sandoval has a 6.42 ERA and a 11.6% walk rate in AAA this year. Vazquez helps round out MLB DFS Red Sox stacks.

Catcher Value: Wilson Ramos ($2,500 FD) struggled basically all season but turned it on recently. In his last seven games he is hitting .316/.632 .SLG with two home runs. Opposing pitcher Aninbal Sanchez has been fine (3.67 ERA) but he can get hit. He has given up a at least a run in every game since May 29th. I don’t love the play honestly, but at $2,500, on a hot Mets team, it may be worth a MLB DFS shot.

Honorable Mention: Matt Weiters, Nick Dini

First Base Stud: Freddie Freeman ($4,400 FD) is hitting third behind two of my favorite bats today in Albies and Acuna. He has 11 hits in his last six games and gets the Marlins bullpen today. Hector Noesi pitches for the Marlins and he is gonna go down fast (more analysis under Braves bats listed below). Freeman is hitting .342/.684 .SLG in August. A small bonus is I tend to like bats that have also hit in a home run derby in the park they are playing in before, which Freeman has done in Miami.

First Base Value: Sam Travis ($2,900 FD) is hitting .241 ISO/.346 wOBA with four home runs in 54 ABs vs lefties this year. He should be batting fifth and gets the platoon advantage with the Red Sox. Opposing pitcher Patrick Sandoval (6.42 ERA in AAA) is in for a long (or short) day at Fenway. (see JD Martinez below)

Second Base: Ozzie Albies ($3,800 FD) has been thriving out of the two hole recently. He takes on Hector Noesi and the Marlins in what I expect to be a high scoring Braves day. Noesi has a 9 ERA this season (small sample size) with a 5.35 ERA on his career. Braves are one of my top stacks today. Albies is hitting .467/.844 SLG/1.333 OPS in August.

Second Base Top Value: Aledmys Diaz

Second Base Value: Starlin Castro ($2,200 FD) is just too cheap. He scored 75.1 FanDuel points in his last THREE games (I bet you didn’t know that). I do like Mike Foltynewicz pitching for the Braves today, and think they get the win, but I may be forced to take the value with Castro. At $2,200, you don’t need much for MLB DFS value.

Honorable mentions: Jose Altuve, Jeff McNeil, Rougned Odor

Third Base Base: Gio Urshela ($4,300 FD) of the Yankees has six home runs in five days. Over the last 15 days he is batting .467/1.067 SLG. Trent Thornton (5.33 ERA) is on the mound today and my guess is he didn’t sleep so well last night knowing who is he to face today. Yankees lost their last two in Toronto and only put up six runs total. My bet is they put enough on the board today to ensure a win and keep their playoff momentum building. If it ain’t broke…

Third Base Value:  Nothing under 3k I like at all.

Honorable Mention: Josh Donaldson (to round out Braves stack), Alex Bregman

Short Stop: Carlos Correa ($3,900 FD) has six double digit MLB DFS fantasy outings in his last seven games hitting .368/.737 SLG with two homers. Asher Wojciechowski (R) is on the mound for the Orioles and does have some strike out ability however he has also given up nine runs in his last nine innings. The Astros just put up 23 runs last night so the odds are not in Asher’s favor today.

Short Stop Value: Didi Gregorious ($3,200 FD) is too cheap. Before yesterdays goose egg he was on a six game hit streak. I expect the Yankees to put up a lot of runs today on Trent Thornton and DiDi is batting third (check lineup when it drops). Gregorious hits better on the road .308 vs .200 and is in a good bounce back spot this afternoon.

Honorable Value: Johan Camargo, Charlie Culberson $2,200

Outfield Stud: Ronald Acuna Jr ($4,400 FD) has 14 homers agains the Marlins in 33 career games. As a Braves fan, I know he hates the Marlins (thank you Jose Urena) and wants to take them deep every AB. He is also HOT right now scoring double digit FanDuel points in nine of his last 11 ABs. During that span he also has seven home runs. He faces Hector Noesi and the Marlins bullpen. The last, and only start, for Noesi this year he gave up five runs in five innings. Acuna lock button.

Outfield Stud 2: JD Martinez ($4,500 FD) mashes lefties and gets Patrick Sandoval today. He had a respectable outing vs the Reds his last start only surrendering two runs in five innings with eight K’s, but that isn’t going to happen again today. Sandoval has a 6.42 ERA and a 11.6% walk rate in AAA this year. Martinez hits lefties better than anyone on the Sox and carries a .400/.576 .SLG/1.333 OPS on the SEASON.

Honorable Mention: Michael Conforto, Mike Tauchman, Yordan Alvarez, Max Kepler

Outfield Mid: Aristido Aquino ($3,600) has to be mentioned after hitting three homers just last night. In his brief MLB career he is hitting lefties .833 ISO/.824 wOBA. Of course these number are bit inflated because of sample size but there is not doubt the Aquino has been impressive. Southpaw John Lester (.439 ERA) is on the mound, and although not terrible, giving up multiple home runs games is in his wheelhouse. Look, Aquino isn’t going to hit three home runs again, but he will be trying for one. I do have concerns about the Cubs not pithing to him in the zone like they did late in last nights game (after he hit three bombs). Either way Aquino is getting on base. He feels safe.

Honorable Mention: Chris Owings, Cameron Maybin, Brian Goodwin

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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