Looking at the entire TNF schedule, this may very well be the most exciting mid-week slate we will have all season! Keenan Allen has already been ruled OUT for this one, and his absence should open up some more value on the Chargers side. Currently we have a 54.5 point total with the Chiefs favored by four points. This one is shaping up to be a shootout, and I can’t wait to get started for NFL Week 2 TNF Showdown DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel.
DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.
Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.
I’ll throw out my best plays, a few fades I recommend (Penny fade was MONEY on Monday night!), and some dark horse options. Let’s cash in and build some bankroll for Week 2 main slate!
We did very well with Javonte Williams on MNF! DK was my other main option, but the Seahawks controlled the game and his usage took a hit as a result. Let’s keep things rolling on TNF!
Listen, these two are the top projected scorers on the showdown slate, and for good reason. Both are incredibly efficient, and neither has a particularly good run game. Mahomes destroyed the Cardinals to the tune of 30/39 for 360 yards and FIVE touchdowns in Week 1. Herbert was no slouch himself against a tough Raiders defense, posting a 26/34 line with 279 yards and 3 TD.
A key difference between the two in Week 1 and a general thing to consider is that Mahomes is very creative in the ways he gets the ball to his weapons. He uses shovel passes, jet sweeps, and everything in-between. In fact, in Week 1, his five touchdowns went for 9, 3, 4, 1, and 2 yards. The upside for Patty is tremendous.
That said, both are in play in this one with a monster total. I am much more likely to lock Mahomes into the bonus spot due to his creativity in the Red Zone. Both KC and LAC were below average in passing play percentage in Week 1 (59.09% and 52.31%, respectively). That won’t scare me away from either, as both teams were well in control (especially KC) for much of the game. KC went very run-heavy in the 4th quarter, as they had already built a 37-7 lead at the start of the 4th.
Listen, Travis Kelce is a fine option up top on TNF. The main issue is that he is very closely priced to both Mahomes and Herbert. I don’t see a ton of value in using him as your bonus option on TNF. I will absolutely have shares, but I don’t think this is the spot to utilize him as your top option.
Insert Ekeler, the do-it-all back for the Chargers. He was a disappointment of sorts in Week 1, posting a 14/36 line on the ground and 4/36 through the air (four targets). Let’s pretend that game didn’t happen. We have to have a short term memory to take an edge in DFS, and this is the perfect storm.
Despite sitting out one game in 2021, Ekeler STILL tied Najee Harris for the league lead among RB with 94 targets. I’m expecting the KC offense to continue to roll in this game, and with Keenan Allen OUT, Ekeler becomes the focal point of the offense.
In 2021, Ekeler saw 16 targets inside the RedZone, and totaled 135 yards and 8 TD. Only Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs compiled more yardage inside the 20. Allen was the 13th-most targeted player in the RedZone, which opens up even more opportunity for Ekeler (and more that we will touch on soon). Fire him up as the best passing-catching back in the NFL in a smash spot. I’ll likely have Ekeler in every lineup in one form or another.
Also Consider Mike Williams ($13,500 DK, $12,500 FD) and Mecole Hardman ($8,400 DK, $7,500 FD)…more on them in a few.
I don’t see a scenario where Williams isn’t in 100% of your lineups on DraftKings, and an argument can be made at FanDuel as well. Regardless of Allen being out, Williams is an enormous RedZone target, and saw 19.4% target share inside the 20 in ’21. Better yet? He was tied with Allen with 12 targets inside the 10. Who had more? Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Hunter Renfroe, and Diggs. Pretty elite company.
Williams is certainly an option up top if you’re a believer in his upside, and I certainly am. Herbert loves this guy, and at 6’4″, 218 pounds it is easy to understand why. He may be the craziest fade on this slate.
Hardman will be yet another tough fade (I am lasered in on a few of these guys). He was tied with a few players in Week 1 with three RedZone targets, and only JaMarr Chase (6) had more. With Tyreek Hill out of town, I’m a believer that Hardman will quickly establish himself as the #1 option outside of Kelce in this offense.
On paper, 3/16/1 is a forgettable stat line for Week 1 for Hardman, and I understand why. He was still 3rd on the team with 6 targets in a game that KC had well in hand very early. I’m expecting many to flock to JuJu Smith-Schuster, and he seems like a fine play. I’m looking for an edge and leverage from the field, and I’m leaning toward a JuJu fade and going after Mecole HARD, man.
Listen, I’ll preface this by saying that I am absolutely NOT a CEH fan overall. He isn’t a particularly good runner, his volume is low, and the KC offense has too many options. However, on a showdown slate, you have to consider him. As mentioned earlier, Mahomes gets very creative (just watch the Week 1 game if you didn’t see), and CEH has upside by simply being available on the field.
I think that Everett is a fantastic cheap play on this slate, and will be going after him to fill in my lineup. He had a great debut with the Chargers in Week 1, posting a 3/54/1 line on four targets. I’m expecting him to be heavily involved in this one, as I do expect the Chargers to be playing from behind. He could easily smash his value and become one of the best plays on the slate.
Palmer should be a popular play due to the absence of Keenan Allen (tired of hearing about him yet?). I understand the potential, but I will likely be underweight and focusing more on Williams and Ekeler myself. he is more of a FD target for me, as we can find some much-lower priced options on DK.
I see Carter as the ideal pivot off of Palmer in GPPs, and unless I’m reading this one wrong, I’m expecting lower ownership (especially on FD). Ekeler is the only back I’m interested in for the Chargers, so all the pass-catching options are in play in a pass-first offense.
Both kickers are in play as always, and are a fine way to fill out your roster. I expect more TDs than FGs, but you can do much worse. Looks like Matt Ammendola will be filling in for Harrison Butker, but stay tuned for updates.
I’m a little disappointed that Pacheco scored late in Week 1, as I was looking forward to a min salary for him here. That said, I believe that Pacheco is more talented than CEH and will eventually find more work in this offense. He is still the 3rd-string option behind Jerick McKinnon ($2,600 DK, $6,500 FD), which should suppress his ownership.
This is strictly a DK play, as Horvath won’t see many touches at all, regardless of game flow. That said, he did find the end zone in Week 1, and is always a threat to steal a TD. He is basically free on DK, and a fine punt if you’re looking to shove a bunch of studs into your lineup.
That’s all I’ve got for the TNF showdown slate! To recap quickly, I’ll be prioritizing Mahomes/Herbert/Ekeler up top. Mecole Hardman is likely a lock for me, Williams is a priority and I’m likely to fade JuJu and Marques Valdes-Scantling. Most likely, everyone outside of Ekeler is a fade for me in the running game aside from a few CEH sprinkles. Have to take a stand somewhere! Excited for this shootout!
Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards on Thursday!
It’s the first Monday Night Football Showdown slate of the year, and I’m pumped to get back into it! We have a matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson will face his former team for the first time ever. I have some thoughts, stats, and ideas for you to construct the best Showdown lineup and CASH in big! Let’s get to it.
DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.
For me, showdown slates are all about taking a stand. Fade the guys who you don’t see paying off their salaries, and go big, if not 100% on your favorites. We have to find an edge, and I’ll show you all where my head is at for MNF.
Listen, this one seems pretty simple to me as the top play. While many will go after Russell Wilson and his “revenge” game, I’m taking a stand with a full fade.
Williams profiles as an ideal play for this slate at 1.5X for a few reasons. Game flow should dictate a Broncos win, and potentially an easy one at that. They are favored by 7 right now, and their workhorse is ready to roll.
Last season, no NFL team allowed more fantasy PPG to opposing RB than Seattle, and I don’t see that changing much in 2022. Javonte and Melvin Gordon (more on him in a few) each saw 21 carries inside the 10 yard line last season. They each saw 9 carries inside the 5.
Here’s the thing. Williams is 7 years younger than Gordon, and is clearly the superior back to me. He will be the focal point of the offense, even with Wilson in town. I see this as more of a 70/30 split this season.
The risk here is decent, as Gordon could certainly steal some goal line work, and coach Nathaniel Hackett said the team would “ride the hot hand” this season. While I believe this to be true, Williams is the far superior player and in a smash spot tonight.
Nobody is arguing that Geno Smith isn’t a significant downgrade from Russell Wilson. That said, you wouldn’t know that by looking at DK’s numbers with Smith under center. Here are his stats in 4 games with Geno in 2021:
5/98/2
6/58/0
2/96/1
6/43/2
I’m a believer that the Broncos will win this one, and likely win it handily. This is a perfect storm for Metcalf. He is big, fast, and may be the best overall athlete in the NFL at the WR position. He is an absolute freak of nature. Tyler Lockett had one big game with Smith under center in ’21, but DK is younger, stronger, and much more of a home-run threat.
If you’re looking for a low-owned option up top, consider Melvin Gordon ($11,100 DK, $10,000 FD). If Hackett is being genuine about riding the hot hand (I mostly believe it), then Gordon could have big upside in a great matchup at low ownership. Geno Smith is another option here, but I’ll likely save him for FLEX, I don’t see him having massive upside at his price tag.
These are the guys I’m considering at the FLEX spots to fill out your roster tonight. All of the above can be considered here as well, and will likely be locking DK and either Williams or Gordon into each of my lineups.
With Wilson running the offense in Denver, the expectation is that this offense will take off. I’m a little more hesitant about the passing game than most, but chances are that one of these two will take off this season. Neither was particularly impressive last season, but nothing about the Denver passing attack was.
If I’m choosing between the two, I prefer Sutton because he is a larger target that I’m hoping will see more Red Zone looks from Wilson. Jeudy missed significant time in 2021, so his numbers were mediocre at best. I will be lighter than the field on both of these two, I’d prefer to prioritize my salary by targeting Williams and Metcalf.
Russell Wilson is well known for his affinity toward his TEs, and although Noah Fant is a higher-priced option in this one, I am all aboard the A.O. train. He is 6’5″, 258 and can run with the best of them. I think he establishes himself as Wilson’s favorite target in the RedZone this season, and that starts tonight. If this game stays close, his upside is even more significant.
If you are of the same thinking as me here, you’re expecting Seattle to play from behind. Geno was efficient in his four games last season, totaling 701 passing yards and a 5/1 TD/INT. Pairing him with Metcalf gives you solid upside in GPPs.
DraftKings makes it far easier to slot in cheap options with upside, and I absolutely love it. Keep an eye on the injury status for Kenneth Walker, as his potential absence could open up some value. If he is out, DeeJay Dallas ($400 DK, $8,000 FD) is a lock for me on DK, and he may make it into my lineup anyway since he is basically free. If Walker plays, he is an option right away, even if he is on a snap count.
I prefer Jason Myers ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) to Brandon McManus ($4,200 DK, $9,500 FD) due to his price savings. Also because Pete Carroll is no stranger to playing it safe and taking points, especially in an underdog role.
Both defenses are in the play tonight. I much prefer the Broncos, and think they are a strong FLEX play and have a significantly higher ceiling.
Marquise Goodwin and Dee Eskridge are deep, deep options that you can take a shot on and hope they break a big one or find the end zone. Just don’t expect any volume unless there is a key injury in this one.
I’m taking my chances with a Rashaad Penny fade. He is hardly a factor at all in the passing game, and draws a very tough matchup. I’m more than comfortable having zero shares tonight, but I’m taking a stand.
Good luck to everyone, I’ll be on Twitter @BigItaly42 watching along tonight. Let’s meet at the top of the leaderboard!
To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. All that summer prep and season long drafts are done, it’s go time.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2022 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will USUALLY not be an article where I write a lot about Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.
Patrick Mahomes under 10% in ownership projections is always something I’ll be interested in, let’s just say that to start. A lot of the DFS and fantasy community as a whole seem to be a bit down on Patrick Mahomes just because there’s no more Tyreek Hill. In my opinion, this is the most quality depth of pass catchers Mahomes has ever had and the AETY Model is expecting another monster year out of Mahomes.
In the model and any sportsbook you look at, Mahomes has the highest passing yard prop on the slate, by a decent margin going up against a brutal, Arizona secondary and an arguably worse pass rush now that Chandler Jones went to Las Vegas. I expect the Chiefs’ offense as a whole to come out with a bang (like they usually always do to start the season) and Mahomes to be the clear-cut QB1 on this slate. Bundle all of that, a slate-leading total (54 points), and a 6-8% ownership projection and we’re cooking with gas.
Stacking Options: Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, James Conner, Trey McBride (if Zach Ertz is out, obviously, Ertz if he goes)
It wouldn’t be my style to not include a dumpster-dive 1% owned, cheap quarterback, so here we go. I’m going to have a good bit of exposure to Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars passing attack this weekend for the following reasons:
Yes, it’s more than likely Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars lay an egg on Sunday, but at 1% ownership, I’ll heavily consider starting my NFL DFS GPP lineups with Lawrence (especially in the early-only slate) and getting exposure to a safer, higher-upside quarterback in my cash game lineup.
Stacking Options: Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram
Run-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Jahan Dotson
Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Mitch Trubisky, Davis Mills
This is likely the best matchup on the slate for a running back: in the dome, against a Falcons’ unit that likely has the worst defensive line in football. On DraftKings specifically, we get the pass catching upside (the AETY Model projects Kamara for over 4 receptions, 35 yards receiving, and the team’s third highest equity in the red-zone passing game) which is always a nice benefit. As long as this game stay’s close (currently a 5-point spread), Kamara should be in for a NFL DFS GPP field day under offensive guru Pete Carmichael’s offense paired with an ownership projection under 10%.
P.S. we likely do not have to worry about Sean Payton’s ridiculous obsession with getting Taysom Hill touches in the red-zone anymore. This is Kamara’s job.
With Rondale Moore out, the AETY Model seems to now love the floor and ceiling for James Conner’s role in the passing game. This was already my favorite game to stack and now we’ll add another piece to the back-and-forth with a 3-down back who’s going to be a focal point of the Cardinals’ offense.
It’s not the best of matchups; he isn’t the safest of players in terms of health; he’s not “under the radar”… I’m still going to take the bait on the seriously low price-tag of a 3-down, pass-catching back in an improved offense. I simply look at it this way, play Saquon Barkley when he’s healthy and play Saquon Barkley when he’s cheap. There is not a whole lot of data to support going all-in on Barkley, but I trust Brian Daboll to find a way to get his best player the football early and often.
If you read the Mahomes’ section of the NFL DFS GPP Week 1 article (and more below), you’ll know I’m all in Kansas City Chiefs. The Arizona Cardinals defense is brutal on paper and I highly doubt they will exceed my already low expectations. This game is going to be a shoot-out and I do trust Andy Reid to lean on Edwards-Helaire for around 60-65% of the snaps. I NEED to have exposure to the AETY Model’s highest expected scoring offense in every way that I can. If it isn’t Mahomes throwing for a touchdown, it will be a CEH rushing touchdown (maybe a passing TD to Edwards-Helaire if we’re really lucky).
The price-tag is just way too low for a guy with significant touchdown equity on the best offense in football… and he’s going to be around 5% owned.
Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, AJ Dillon, Eli Mitchell
If Adams were still on the Packers, he’d be projected for 20% or higher ownership in this matchup, but he’s sitting at 10-12% now. The Chargers are likely to play a ton of zone coverage and Davante Adams kills zone coverage. The red-zone equity may go down a little bit due to Rodgers’ not peppering him with 2 targets minimum on every red-zone opportunity, but the volume will be there for Adams. He’s projected to lead this slate in receiving (surprise to no one), according to the AETY Model.
We don’t need to get to into detail here, Deebo Samuel is one of the best fantasy football players. He’s going to be under 10% owned in an absolute cakewalk matchup. Trey Lance will be forced to get Deebo Samuel involved in the passing game and we already know the rushing upside. He signed his contract and he’s ready to roll and roll!
Getting exposure to the Chargers @ Raiders game is probably priority number two for me this weekend (second to KC/AZ), and I’ll likely be starting said exposure with Keenan Allen or Austin Ekeler. I always love Keenan Allen inside against the Raiders’ zone defense where he’ll face off against a young, unproven, Nate Hobbs. Keenan Allen still has PLENTY of game left in him and we’ll see it on Sunday.
Sub $7,000 on DraftKings for Tyreek Hill is incredibly attractive. Mike McDaniel simply abuses his number one offensive threat on a weekly basis and this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Not to mention Tua’s love to key on one receiver almost exclusively (last year we were fine paying $7,000 for Jaylen Waddle)… this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Better yet, this New England Patriots’ secondary is absolute trash and they’re likely going to play a ton of man coverage. Good luck, Patriots!
Similar to the Lazard situation, but not quite to that extent… Christian Kirk is the clear WR1 on the Jaguars, and yet he’s priced like a mid-tier WR2 (I understand the situation isn’t sexy, but the price is). This matchup is absolutely one to get excited about as Washington nickel-corner, Brandon St. Juste, is arguably the worst cornerback in the NFL. On the other side of things, I don’t see Jacksonville putting up much of a fight on defense, which can lead to a low-key, disgusting shootout for NFL DFS GPP lineups.
After further review and hearing more skepticism about Diontae Johnson’s health, I’m going to officially name my 1% owned NFL DFS GPP Wide Receiver of the Week, Chase Claypool. The gamescript should be incredibly positive for Claypool with or without Diontae Johnson and we need to take advantage of the tunnel-vision Mitch Trubisky has for his big bodied receivers (and a love for slot receivers). Trubisky will want to move the ball deep down field (he always has) and trust the ability of the monster, Claypool to go up and get it.
Assuming they move Claypool all across the formation, we’ll get a lot of Claypool with a 7-inch advantage on nicker corner, Mike Hilton. As long as the Bengals come out firing and move Pittsburgh into a more pass-heavy approach, Claypool is a steal at these price-tags.
HOMER ALERT! Lol, if any of you have followed me before, you know I’ve had a man crush on Mecole Hardman. Yes, he’s let me down 99 times out of 100, but I truly believe he is the only wide receiver on this roster who can handle the vacant route tree of Tyreek Hill. No, he’s not Tyreek Hill, but he doesn’t need to be at this price. The Cardinals’ secondary is absolute trash and Hardman will be schemed to take advantage of every one of them as he’s moved all around the field. Hardman will be the WR1 for Kansas City in Week 1.
Honorable Mention: Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Nico Collins, Joshua Palmer, Marquise Brown
I’m going to be quite heavy on Travis Kelce, but I do not think he is a “must-have” in terms of salary. Here are the others I’ll be focusing on rostering.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. All that summer prep and season long drafts are done, it’s go time.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2022 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will USUALLY not be an article where I write a lot about Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.
Patrick Mahomes under 10% in ownership projections is always something I’ll be interested in, let’s just say that to start. A lot of the DFS and fantasy community as a whole seem to be a bit down on Patrick Mahomes just because there’s no more Tyreek Hill. In my opinion, this is the most quality depth of pass catchers Mahomes has ever had and the AETY Model is expecting another monster year out of Mahomes.
In the model and any sportsbook you look at, Mahomes has the highest passing yard prop on the slate, by a decent margin going up against a brutal, Arizona secondary and an arguably worse pass rush now that Chandler Jones went to Las Vegas. I expect the Chiefs’ offense as a whole to come out with a bang (like they usually always do to start the season) and Mahomes to be the clear-cut QB1 on this slate. Bundle all of that, a slate-leading total (54 points), and a 6-8% ownership projection and we’re cooking with gas.
Stacking Options: Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, James Conner, Trey McBride (if Zach Ertz is out, obviously, Ertz if he goes)
It wouldn’t be my style to not include a dumpster-dive 1% owned, cheap quarterback, so here we go. I’m going to have a good bit of exposure to Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars passing attack this weekend for the following reasons:
Yes, it’s more than likely Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars lay an egg on Sunday, but at 1% ownership, I’ll heavily consider starting my NFL DFS GPP lineups with Lawrence (especially in the early-only slate) and getting exposure to a safer, higher-upside quarterback in my cash game lineup.
Stacking Options: Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram
Run-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Jahan Dotson
Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Mitch Trubisky, Davis Mills
This is likely the best matchup on the slate for a running back: in the dome, against a Falcons’ unit that likely has the worst defensive line in football. On DraftKings specifically, we get the pass catching upside (the AETY Model projects Kamara for over 4 receptions, 35 yards receiving, and the team’s third highest equity in the red-zone passing game) which is always a nice benefit. As long as this game stay’s close (currently a 5-point spread), Kamara should be in for a NFL DFS GPP field day under offensive guru Pete Carmichael’s offense paired with an ownership projection under 10%.
P.S. we likely do not have to worry about Sean Payton’s ridiculous obsession with getting Taysom Hill touches in the red-zone anymore. This is Kamara’s job.
With Rondale Moore out, the AETY Model seems to now love the floor and ceiling for James Conner’s role in the passing game. This was already my favorite game to stack and now we’ll add another piece to the back-and-forth with a 3-down back who’s going to be a focal point of the Cardinals’ offense.
It’s not the best of matchups; he isn’t the safest of players in terms of health; he’s not “under the radar”… I’m still going to take the bait on the seriously low price-tag of a 3-down, pass-catching back in an improved offense. I simply look at it this way, play Saquon Barkley when he’s healthy and play Saquon Barkley when he’s cheap. There is not a whole lot of data to support going all-in on Barkley, but I trust Brian Daboll to find a way to get his best player the football early and often.
If you read the Mahomes’ section of the NFL DFS GPP Week 1 article (and more below), you’ll know I’m all in Kansas City Chiefs. The Arizona Cardinals defense is brutal on paper and I highly doubt they will exceed my already low expectations. This game is going to be a shoot-out and I do trust Andy Reid to lean on Edwards-Helaire for around 60-65% of the snaps. I NEED to have exposure to the AETY Model’s highest expected scoring offense in every way that I can. If it isn’t Mahomes throwing for a touchdown, it will be a CEH rushing touchdown (maybe a passing TD to Edwards-Helaire if we’re really lucky).
The price-tag is just way too low for a guy with significant touchdown equity on the best offense in football… and he’s going to be around 5% owned.
Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, AJ Dillon, Eli Mitchell
If Adams were still on the Packers, he’d be projected for 20% or higher ownership in this matchup, but he’s sitting at 10-12% now. The Chargers are likely to play a ton of zone coverage and Davante Adams kills zone coverage. The red-zone equity may go down a little bit due to Rodgers’ not peppering him with 2 targets minimum on every red-zone opportunity, but the volume will be there for Adams. He’s projected to lead this slate in receiving (surprise to no one), according to the AETY Model.
We don’t need to get to into detail here, Deebo Samuel is one of the best fantasy football players. He’s going to be under 10% owned in an absolute cakewalk matchup. Trey Lance will be forced to get Deebo Samuel involved in the passing game and we already know the rushing upside. He signed his contract and he’s ready to roll and roll!
Getting exposure to the Chargers @ Raiders game is probably priority number two for me this weekend (second to KC/AZ), and I’ll likely be starting said exposure with Keenan Allen or Austin Ekeler. I always love Keenan Allen inside against the Raiders’ zone defense where he’ll face off against a young, unproven, Nate Hobbs. Keenan Allen still has PLENTY of game left in him and we’ll see it on Sunday.
Sub $7,000 on DraftKings for Tyreek Hill is incredibly attractive. Mike McDaniel simply abuses his number one offensive threat on a weekly basis and this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Not to mention Tua’s love to key on one receiver almost exclusively (last year we were fine paying $7,000 for Jaylen Waddle)… this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Better yet, this New England Patriots’ secondary is absolute trash and they’re likely going to play a ton of man coverage. Good luck, Patriots!
Similar to the Lazard situation, but not quite to that extent… Christian Kirk is the clear WR1 on the Jaguars, and yet he’s priced like a mid-tier WR2 (I understand the situation isn’t sexy, but the price is). This matchup is absolutely one to get excited about as Washington nickel-corner, Brandon St. Juste, is arguably the worst cornerback in the NFL. On the other side of things, I don’t see Jacksonville putting up much of a fight on defense, which can lead to a low-key, disgusting shootout for NFL DFS GPP lineups.
After further review and hearing more skepticism about Diontae Johnson’s health, I’m going to officially name my 1% owned NFL DFS GPP Wide Receiver of the Week, Chase Claypool. The gamescript should be incredibly positive for Claypool with or without Diontae Johnson and we need to take advantage of the tunnel-vision Mitch Trubisky has for his big bodied receivers (and a love for slot receivers). Trubisky will want to move the ball deep down field (he always has) and trust the ability of the monster, Claypool to go up and get it.
Assuming they move Claypool all across the formation, we’ll get a lot of Claypool with a 7-inch advantage on nicker corner, Mike Hilton. As long as the Bengals come out firing and move Pittsburgh into a more pass-heavy approach, Claypool is a steal at these price-tags.
HOMER ALERT! Lol, if any of you have followed me before, you know I’ve had a man crush on Mecole Hardman. Yes, he’s let me down 99 times out of 100, but I truly believe he is the only wide receiver on this roster who can handle the vacant route tree of Tyreek Hill. No, he’s not Tyreek Hill, but he doesn’t need to be at this price. The Cardinals’ secondary is absolute trash and Hardman will be schemed to take advantage of every one of them as he’s moved all around the field. Hardman will be the WR1 for Kansas City in Week 1.
Honorable Mention: Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Nico Collins, Joshua Palmer, Marquise Brown
I’m going to be quite heavy on Travis Kelce, but I do not think he is a “must-have” in terms of salary. Here are the others I’ll be focusing on rostering.
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