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NFL DFS GPP

Week 5 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Listen, I feel guilty for not recommending TJ Hockenson last week. Of course we all saw 93 points coming in that game, and I should have been all over it! I kid, of course, and congrats to all who had TJ. He truly broke the slate at TE. Now that we are in Week 5, our goal is to find the TJ this week (maybe it IS TJ). Let’s get right to it.

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 4 on DraftKings and FanDuel! Crazy to think that after this week, we are already almost 25% of the way through the NFL season!

Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Maybe I’m just an old curmudgeon, but typing the word “Commanders” for an NFL team makes me feel like I’m playing an unlicensed version of Madden. Nevertheless, Thomas is a sneaky good play this week. Jahan Dotson seems very unlikely to play on Sunday, and Thomas should be one of the main beneficiaries.

After running routes on only about 76% of his snaps Weeks 1-2, Thomas ran a route on over 94% each of the last two weeks. He was targeted six times against Dallas on Sunday, but pulled in just five balls for 19 yards. It’s easy to blame Carson Wentz, who is undoubtedly the man staring back at you when you Google “QBs who are terrible in real life but fantasy relevant”.

Washington faces the Titans this week, and only the Seahawks (thanks to Hockenson) are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing TE.

Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

I’m fairly certain that Ertz has been in this article every week so far this season. I can’t imagine that changing, regardless of matchup, until DeAndre Hopkins returns. Check out where our guy Zach ranks among TE since Week 2.

Snap counts: 1st, 1st, 7th.

Targets: T1st, T2nd, T7th.

The opportunities are there, and the only reason he saw a SLIGHT dip last week was the fact that the Cardinals weren’t playing from behind for once. I’ll be betting that they’ll be playing from behind again this week against the 4-0 Eagles.

If you’re into this sort of thing, we can call this one a revenge game for Ertz. This will be his first time facing his former team. The matchup isn’t great of course, but the volume should be elite once again.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

Last week we discussed two TE who were facing each other, and this week our featured matchup is Goedert vs Ertz. Dallas has 16 targets over his last three games, and draws a juicy matchup against the Cardinals. They rank 30th in the NFL against TE, allowing over 20 fantasy points per game.

This game has a total hovering around 50 points, and Goedert has continued to deliver. He has 11+ DraftKings points in each of his last three games.

TJ Hockenson, Lions ($4,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

FanDuel and DraftKings were quick to make Hockenson the most expensive TE on the main slate, but this is again a slate missing Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. I think he’s a decent fade in tournaments, as his game last week should see his ownership skyrocket.

However, this is actually a pretty good spot for Hock. The Patriots have allowed the most touchdowns in the NFL to opposing TE (5), and the Lions lead the NFL with 35 PPG. To me, playing or not playing Hock in tournaments comes down to the status of Amon-Ra St. Brown and DeAndre Swift. If both are out, you’ll need shares of him. If just Sun God sits, he’s viable as well.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Here’s an idea. Let’s ignore last week’s debacle (one catch for 25 yards on four targets) and take advantage of some recency bias. The perfect time to target a player at low ownership is immediately after they disappoint. The DFS world is less than pleased with Pitts, and for good reason. But hear me out.

Cordarrelle Patterson has been placed on the IR, and Atlanta doesn’t truly have much experience in the backfield. The offense will be relying on their young duo of Pitts and Drake London against the Bucs.

Pitts only played 62% of the snaps last week, but had his highest rate of routes run on the season (92.3%). The Falcons are 8.5-point underdogs in a game with a total around 49. This is the perfect game script for Pitts and company to post some fantasy goodness. Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd-most receptions to opposing TE this season. One time, Kyle. Let’s run it back.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 5, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 4 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Monday Night Football brings us another rematch, this time from the 2021 NFC Championship game. The Rams and 49ers have no shortage of history, and San Fransisco will undoubtedly be looking for revenge in this one. Prior to losing the NFC Championship to the Rams (which they should have won), the 49ers had won six straight in this series. We got our hands full in this one. Let’s find an edge and make some cash!

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

MVP/Captain Plays

Cooper Kupp, Rams ($18,000 DraftKings, $17,500 FanDuel)

Listen, Kupp is VERY expensive on this showdown slate. However, there isn’t a player on either roster who can match his ceiling. In his last two games against San Fransisco, he has posted the following lines:

11/122 (13 targets)

7/118/1 (7 targets)

Last week, we saw Kupp post a pedestrian 4/44/0 line on six targets, but he did score on a 20-yard rush. In Weeks 1-2, Kupp was putting up McDonald’s numbers (I hope you get the Ludacris reference) with 34.8 and 35.8 DraftKings points, respectively. Simply put, Kupp is the safest play and also the highest upside play on MNF. The only player I see as potentially coming close is…

Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($15,600 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

The San Fransisco offense goes as Deebo Samuel goes. He has a great rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo, and has had success in this matchup recently. In two games against the Rams last season, Samuel posted totals of 133 scrimmage yards with two scores, then 140 yards with one score in the NFC Championship game.

His usage out of the backfield and in the passing game is elite, and the 49ers will need every bit of his production in this one. Expect Samuel to be a favorite target for Jimmy G in this one yet again. He has 15, 10, and 13 touches in three games this season, and the potential for more is there. He is the focal point of the offense and that won’t be changing tonight or any time soon. Deebo is a near must-play for this slate.

Tyler Higbee, Rams ($7,800 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

Kupp or Deebo will likely be my main options for this one, but I’ll throw some shots at Higbee in the bonus spot. He scored three touchdowns in his last two games against San Fransisco, and his usage this season is elite. Only Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz are averaging more targets per game than Higbee thus far in 2022.

The 49ers have allowed only five catches to opposing TE over three games this season, but that doesn’t scare me off of Higbee. The Rams are a pass-first offense, and Higbee is the clear #2 behind Kupp. The 49ers will be scheming to take away Kupp (good luck), and I see Higbee being the beneficiary of a few extra looks tonight.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Matt Stafford, Rams ($10,600 DraftKings, $15,500 FanDuel)

The Rams offense throws the ball over 63% of the time thus far in 2022, up almost 4% from last season. Stafford will have a tough matchup here, but the numbers for the 49ers defense are slightly skewed. They have faced Justin Fields in a monsoon, Geno Smith, and the ghost of Russell Wilson thus far. Stafford is far from a must-play here, but if you are making multiple lineups, he needs to be in your pool.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

I’m not a big fan of Jimmy G in general, and the Rams have been tough on him over the years. If you remove one game in 2020 where Jimmy had 268 yards and three scores…things get pretty ugly. He has a 6/7 TD/INT against the Rams in five other matchups. What does this have to do with Aiyuk? Well, I’m fading Jimmy. He just doesn’t have the upside I’m looking for in this matchup. Aiyuk has seen eight targets in back to back weeks, and is priced perfectly in the middle tier. I’ll take a shot here on a decent floor and some sneaky upside. The Rams have actually allowed the MOST fantasy points to opposing WR so far this season. I don’t expect that to be the case all season, but Jalen Ramsey looks as bad as Twitter mobs pretend Eli Apple is…

Robbie Gould and Matt Gay

If this game stays close (and Vegas is betting that it will), the kickers could play a major role. It looks like nearly perfect weather, and both kickers are cheap and reliable. I lean more toward Gould than Gay, as I see the Rams as more likely to finish drives than the 49ers.

Values

A few others to consider are Jauan Jennings ($2,000 DraftKings), who has seen 11 targets this season. I’m not huge on this offense here outside of the top guys, but he is worth a look as a punt play.

Kyle Juszcyk is always a threat to steal some goal-line work or grab a screen pass and bowl over some defenders. He is only $1,000 on DraftKings.

I won’t talk you out of George Kittle. His matchup is actually a good bit better than it was last season with Von Miller now in Buffalo. However, only Cleveland and Chicago have run the ball LESS than the 49ers, and there is only so much to go around. I would rather prioritize Kupp and Samuel.

One last value play here is Ben Skowronek. He is coming off a solid 4/66 game against Arizona, and could provide some sneaky value here.

While there is no chance I’m fading Cooper Kupp, the 49ers defense has massive upside if we see Matthew Stafford on a bad day. He actually has a 4/5 TD/INT so far in 2022, and the 49ers won’t miss this time like they did in the NFC Championship game. If things break well for the 49ers, the defense could be among the highest scorers on the slate. Don’t be afraid to throw a lineup or two with them in the bonus spot tonight. It could pay off big.

I’m not excited about any one player in the run game here. I’ll take my rushing upside in the form of Mr. Deebo Samuel.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 4 NFL DFS GPP Lineups

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” Hopefully everyone is safe from the Hurricane and ready to decompress with some NFL football! The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a potential splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat (all of which are in the cash game article).

NOTE: Keep an eye on the weather forecasts. The majority of this article is built around Buffalo/Baltimore. There is a chance of higher winds and potential rain due to the Hurricane. I’ll do my best to update the article as we learn more, but be sure to tune into the livestream on Sunday morning for final updates.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

With Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson all on the main slate, I’m going to focus on lineups with significant upside (like any other GPP lineup) as we really need to ensure our lineups can compete with a Baltimore/Buffalo shootout. Personally, those three would be my first three clicks (and likely yours) in any format of DFS this weekend. There’s absolutely no shame in that at all, just ensure you get different elsewhere. Here is where I’ll be looking outside of the trio above:

Justin Herbert ($7,100 DK / $8,000 FD)

With all the weather concerns and totals dropping in the more appealing games, the AETY Model is really pushing the value of for this Chargers passing attack and pace of play. Herbert is apparently healthy and still throwing the ball 40+ times a game. The Houston defense has been solid to start the season (ranking 7th in pass defense DVOA) but they have yet to play a competent air attack like they get this weekend with the Chargers. At 5% ownership, Justin Herbert certainly is worth rostering with the hopes his ceiling can match or surpass the Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts of the world.

Stacking Options: Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, Austin Ekeler
Run-Back Options: Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, Dameon Pierce

Mitch Trubisky ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD)

It’s absolutely gross, but the AETY Model ranks Trubisky as the number one value quarterback on the slate and it’s hard to disagree at this price-tag. The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and are having quite a difficult time generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. It’s not a sexy game by any means, but the line movements are trending in favor of the over and we very well may get a low-key, nasty shootout on a slate where there really isn’t much outside of Buffalo/Baltimore.

The thing I like about using Trubisky is what it opens up for the rest of your roster and this is the nut-leverage spot on the board using a QB against the one of the top projected defenses, in terms of ownership. If you’re using Trubisky, make sure you load up with the exposures you need to keep up with those using Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. There is really no need to double stack with Trubisky in NFL DFS GPP lineups as his ownership is already low enough.

Stacking Options: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth, Chase Claypool
Run-Back Options: Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall

Russell Wilson ($6,700 DK / $7,100 FD)

Yes, I know what you’re thinking… “How the hell can we even think about rostering Russell Wilson or anyone in this Denver passing attack?”. I get it, it’s scary as hell to want to invest in a buy-low opportunity with this offense, but a GPP should never feel comfortable. The Raiders’ defense is terrible and underperforming in all aspects of the game and they come into this matchup rather banged up across the secondary. The total in this game seems to continuously rise despite the majority of the public laying the under.

With weather concerns throughout the east cost and an absolutely ugly slate outside of BUF/BAL in general, I’m going to bite the bullet and trust the AETY Model that this is a prime get-right spot for Wilson and the Broncos in a dome.

Stacking Options: Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy
Run-Back Options: Davante Adams

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Nick Chubb ($7,900 DK / $9,200 FD)

Nick Chubb has been one of the few “top-tier” fantasy running backs that hasn’t been a disappointment to start the 2022 NFL season and he splits time! We loved this matchup against Atlanta (27th in run defense DVOA) last week with Rashaad Penny, now I’m sure you can imagine how much I love Chubb (outside of his price) in that very same matchup. The Cleveland Browns’ sole focus is to run the football and run the clock out behind this top-5 offensive line. If you can find a way to afford a 5% owned, Nick Chubb, you’re in a great spot to be different in your GPP lineups as the field pays down at running back once again this week.

Javonte Williams ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

As long as Javonte Williams is floating around that 10% ownership mark, I’ll simply be pushing all-in on him this week. I wrote more on my appeal for Javonte Williams in the cash game article but let the double mention show you how much I love Williams in Week 4 NFL DFS lineups as a whole. Melvin Gordon is banged up with a neck injury and this is a prime spot on a shorter week for Denver to ride their young superstar.

Devin Singletary ($5,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

Hopefully you tuned into the livestream last week when Jason and I discussed the potential leverage that Devin Singletary possessed on the Sunday main slate. That call absolutely paid off as most of the Buffalo chalk died a slow death in all formats while Devin Singletary smashed the running back slate at a cheap price. The same situation arises this week. Everyone in the world is going to play Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs (for good reason), but if you get on the right side of variance, Devin Singletary is setup for another 3x NFL DFS GPP week at sub-5% ownership.

This game is going to shootout and rostering the lead back with a 65% or higher snap share over the past two weeks is an excellent way to get affordable exposure. Hell, just stack this game up (weather permitting)!

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Najee Harris, Rashaad Penny

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DK / $8,700 FD)

I don’t care what the price or ownership is, Stefon Diggs is the best wide receiver play on this slate and I’ll get as much exposure to him as I can. This Ravens’ secondary is bleeding production to any competent pass catcher, let alone a route-running star like Stefon Diggs. Get exposure to this game!

Davante Adams ($8,300 DK / $7,900 FD)

The price on FanDuel is criminal, but so is the ownership. Davante Adams under 10% owned is always significant GPP leverage, especially when he’s back home in the dome. Adams is the only player I’m interested in on the Raiders side of things in NFL DFS GPP lineups, especially in my Broncos stacks. While 30% of the field plays Josh Jacobs, pivot to the true fantasy stud on this team in Davante Adams.

Mike Williams ($7,000 DK / $7,200 FD)

Not many have the pure upside like Mike Williams possesses on a given week and not many of the size advantage to pair with it. Mike Williams has ~5 inches of an advantage on both Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson on the outside of this Houston defense and that is always something I’ll keep in mind when looking for upside wide receivers in a NFL DFS GPP lineup. If you can’t afford Mike Williams, Josh Palmer is in a great spot as well at a significant discount while Keenan Allen is OUT.

Courtland Sutton ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD)

Excellent price for the WR1 in one of my core stacks going up against a bad pass defense and banged up corners. Sutton has a significant size advantage across the board here (Nate Hobbs also moved outside in coverage) and has been peppered with targets and deep balls from Russell Wilson. If I’m banking on a Wilson comeback, I’m banking on the connection with Sutton to finally hit pay-dirt. Sutton is 4th in the NFL in Air Yards, which doesn’t equate to fantasy points, but it certainly can hint at a potential breakout. The big game is coming and I’ll put my chips on the table that this is the week.

Rashod Bateman ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD)

Getting the point yet, lol? Getting affordable exposure or even a game stack of Buffalo/Baltimore game is the focus of my week. Bateman is never going to be a guy that gets it done with volume, but the Bills will play a good bit of man and I’m betting on Rashod Bateman absolutely cooking Dane Jackson for a deep ball or two throughout this shootout.

George Pickens ($3,800 DK / $5,100 FD)

Had to add some value to the article so we’ll go with the recent squeaky wheel in hopes he gets the grease. Pickens has made his frustrations with not getting the football well known… I believe the quote was “99% of the time, I’m open”. Like Bateman, Pickens will not get there by volume, but the big play ability is certainly well within reach. At this low of a price-tag, I’ll take the risk.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, DJ Chark, Elijah Moore, Allen Lazard

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

Please review the Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown for my thoughts on the tight-end position. In addition, here is another player I’ll be looking at:

Robert Tonyan ($3,500 DK / $4,900 FD)

It appears the majority of the NFL DFS GPP community is going to pay down at tight-end and push the ownership towards the likes of Evan Engram and Pat Freiermuth (I do like Pat a bit), I’ll take the savings of the progressing Robert Tonyan. New England grades 25th in pass defense DVOA against opposing tight-ends and we continue to see the snap share and target share for Tonyan to raise as he gets back to full strength. Call me crazy, but I’d rather play someone on the receiving end of Aaron Rodgers if I’m punting the tight-end position, but ONLY if you need to punt at tight-end.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Another profitable week of NFL DFS is in the books. The entire field had a piece of that Bills/Dolphins game which turned out to be a big day for each team’s running backs (Our guy Stix mentioned Devin Singletary for GPP on our Discord on Saturday). Not many high scores, but we should’ve still doubled up in our cash games thanks to our projection models. Thanks to the site my own personal lineups would’ve all tanked if it weren’t for Mack Hollins‘ insane game (8 REC/158 YDS/1 TD). Remember we’re all in here to help, our team is here 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds anytime guys, now let’s break down Week 4!

Sunday Main Slate 10/2/22

Jaguars @ Eagles (-6.5) (O/U 46.5)

Jaguars

Have the Jags become a legit team in the NFL again? Head coach Doug Pederson looks like he may have turned this franchise around after the 38-10 shellacking his team put on the Chargers. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been efficient, throwing 6 touchdowns to only 1 interception. He’s useable in a GPP, but his main man Christian Kirk may see shadow coverage from Darius Slay. Pairing Lawrence with Zay Jones may be the way to go in this game, fresh off his 10 REC/85 YRD/1 TD performance.

Eagles

Philly is again in the driver’s seat this weekend. Jalen Hurts embarrassed his former mentor Carson Wentz last week, and now he gets a piece of his old coach Doug Pederson, who benched him in the final game of the 2020 season for Nate Sudfeld. Hard to pass up on a few Eagles for DFS again in Week 4…Should be another aerial attack on Jacksonville. Hurts, Brown, Smith, and Goedert are all reliable plays this Sunday.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown, D. Smith, D. Goedert

GPP: T. Lawrence, Z. Jones

Bills @ Ravens (+3) (O/U 51.5)

Bills

Now we’re talking. Bang bang shoot’em up in Baltimore. After suffering that painful loss to Miami last week, we can foresee Josh Allen coming out guns blazing in this one. Whatever happened to this shutdown Raven secondary? They’ve been toasted since last season even with Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters back in the mix allowing over 1,100 air yards in 3 games. So Diggs is a lock to pair, but still, be cautious with Gabe Davis with his ankle injury. Dawson Knox has been quiet and his salary has whittled away, this might be the right time to sneak him into your DFS lineup.

Ravens

Raven contests have been money in the bank for DFS so far this season. Lamar vs. Allen, the Champ vs. the Number One Contender. We’ll see who’s playing defense for Buffalo by Sunday morning, but it shouldn’t matter to Jackson by the way he’s been playing. He leads the league in touchdown passes (10) with another 2 on foot. Top tight end Mark Andrews has also been unstoppably catching the football (22 REC/245 YDS/3 TD) and will continue to dominate whatever the defense throws at him.

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: D. Knox

Update: Watch the weather this weekend, could get soggy in Baltimore

Commanders @ Cowboys (-3) (O/U 41.5)

Commanders

Carson Wentz couldn’t stay off his back last week as the Eagles demonstrated why they have the number one ranked defense. He’ll be having a little case of deja vu on Sunday when they visit the Cowboys who can also get to the quarterback quickly. Dallas has a total of 13 sacks and has only allowed 2 passing touchdowns on the year. I’m taking a hard pass on the Commanders this week.

Cowboys

I’m tempted to put Cooper Rush in a GPP lineup, he’s been very safe as a game manager and with the low salary he could give us a little value. Lamb finally showed up last week (8 REC/87 YDS/1 TD) and we can only imagine what he can do to the Fuller/St. Juste coverage of Washington. The safe play is the Dallas DST though, the Cowboys may not have to rely too much on their offense if they end up shutting down the Commanders.

Cash: Dallas DST

GPP: C. Rush, C. Lamb

Seahawks @ Lions (-4) (O/U 48)

Seahawks

Seattle let Geno cook against Atlanta in Week 3, and the meal came out hot and spicy. He has an opportunity to duplicate his (325 PAYDS/2 TD) performance in Detroit, who have been very fantasy-friendly to quarterbacks this year. DK Metcalf looked spectacular too last week, but he may see a ton of Jeff Okudah, the dude who kept Minnesota’s J.J. quiet. If you’re looking to pair Geno, use Lockett this week. He had a nice 11-target (9 REC/76 YRD) game and should see the door mat corner in Detroit of Amani Oruwariye. Running back Rashaad Penny tore up Detroit at the end of last season for (170 YDS/2 TD) and he is a mere ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel), keep him in mind for a tournament play too.

Lions

Detroit will be without 2 of its biggest weapons in D’Andre Swift and Amon Ra–St. Brown this Sunday due to injury. Goff will still be there to lead the team and he’ll look to lean on his safety valve, tight end T J Hockenson. Running back Jamaal Williams will pick up the slack for Swift, but Craig Reynolds may also see some snaps.

Cash: J. Goff, T. Hockenson, Jam. Williams

GPP: G. Smith, T. Lockett, R. Penny

Jets @ Steelers (-3.5) (O/U 42)

Jets

If you’re feeling lucky to go with gang green this weekend, Zach Wilson will finally take over for Flacco. He’s a steal at ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,500 Fanduel) and his receiver core is a bargain as well except we can’t be too sure who will get targetted yet. Tight end Tyler Conklin is ranked number 2 in the league but for some reason, his salary is still very inexpensive ($3,600 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel). Zach will need to throw it and Conklin offers little risk and high reward for quick receptions up the middle.

Steelers

Are we all in on Mitch? In a tournament for sure, I can’t bet half my bankroll on the biscuit. The Jets’ secondary are a disaster (22nd in DVOA for receivers/20th for QBs), and might as well give me some George Pickens of the core, cheapest with the most upside. Diontae Johnson would be the safer play in my opinion, but when facing the Jets anyone could be uncontroversial.

Cash: D. Johnson

GPP: Z. Wilson, T. Conklin, M. Trubisky, G. Pickens, N. Harris

Bears @ Giants (-3) (O/U 39.5)

Bears

Rain is in the forecast for this weekend, I can’t even imagine Fields getting double-digit pass attempts in this game. The Bears have nothing to lose yet they hold this kid back from airing it out. So It’ll be another big rushing day for Khalil Herbert against a Giants run defense that can’t stop anyone with the ball (25th in DVOA). Very safe for cash, and that’s about it…Chicago has been a snooze fest for three weeks.

Giants

New York is running thin at receiver after losing Sterling Shepard for the year to an ACL, Richie James is the last man standing at Met Life. Chicago will be ready for Saquon, Golladay is on the block, and Toney and Robinson are ruled out, so it will be James running routes all day. If New York wins, it will be with their defense, which has kept the scores down in all three games this year. Fields will pass at some point, and the Giants will look to exploit him.

Cash: K. Herbert, NY DST

GPP: R. James

Chargers @ Texans (+5.5) (O/U 44)

Chargers

Coming off a devastating loss at home to Jacksonville, Justin Herbert will be out for blood. Even though it appears Keenan Allen could miss his second straight game, Austin Ekeler has been quiet and could break out in Houston, where we just saw Chicago’s Khalil Herbert go bananas. Herbert does a pretty good job of spreading the ball, so be careful with Charger receivers here. Salaries are up across the board, and if they get a big lead, the passing game could taper off.

Texans

On the other side of that coin, Houston will be playing catch-up all game. No Joey Bosa, a banged-up Derwin James, and possibly no J C Jackson, and boom… Brandin Cooks is back on SportsCenter. A WR1 is priced down to a WR2 this weekend, come and get some.

Cash: B. Cooks

GPP: A. Ekeler

Browns @ Falcons (+1.5) (O/U 49)

Browns

Cleveland has a nice match-up on paper but I just can’t buy too much into Brissett. Amari Cooper on the other hand has proven to be the 1, but how much will they need to throw it here against Atlanta? Nick Chubb has been on an absolute rampage in this run-first offense so why bother exposing a weakness in passing? Chubb’s approaching $8k in salary this week on DraftKings, but could have low ownership because of the Jamaal Williams hype. Sneaky in GPP.

Falcons

The Browns defensive line might be without two key pieces as Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett are both questionable. This would buy more time for Mariota to find rookie Drake London in the open field, who has taken over as Atlanta’s number one option. Mariota could even peel off some chunks of rushing yardage himself in this situation, but either way, London should be good to go because of game flow.

Cash: D. London

GPP: N. Chubb, M. Mariota

Titans @ Colts (-3) (O/U 42.5)

Titans

The Titans finally got in the win column thanks to a strong performance by Derrick Henry. But the Colts rank third in the league in run defense, so they may need Tannehill to step up his game. The rookie Treylon Burks and veteran Robert Woods have been the only guys trusted in the passing game, but Shaq Leonard may finally be suiting up this Sunday, so I’m just staying away entirely on the Titans.

Colts

Tennessee may have the worst secondary in football and could spell another monster game from Michael Pittman Jr. They also rank 29th in rushing yards allowed, which could wake the sleeping giant of Jonathon Taylor. Both are still up there in salary, and it is a divisional game which would lead to both teams being cautious with the ball and playing solid defense, so we can go there, the Colts D. is in a sweet spot.

Cash: Colts DST

GPP: M. Pittman Jr.

Cardinals @ Panthers (-1.5) (O/U 43)

Cardinals

The Cards got bit by the injury bug this week, as almost the entire offense popped up with a questionable tag, even Marquise Brown. Hopefully, it’s not too serious for him, since he saw 17 targets last week, catching 14 for 140 yards, and can be in line for the same volume in Carolina. Tight end Zach Ertz is pretty much the only healthy weapon for Kyler this week and can also see a huge uptick in usage.

Panthers

Arizona has been a cheat code for drafting at the wide receiver position so far this season. Let’s just keep filling up our buckets from that well and grab Carolina’s WR1 DJ Moore. He’s been quarterback-proof throughout his career, so buy in this week while Moore is dirt cheap ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) with a ton of upside.

Cash: M. Brown, Z. Ertz, DJ Moore

GPP:

Patriots @ Packers (-9.5) (O/U 40.5)

Patriots

Veteran backup Brian Hoyer will get the start for the banged-up Mac Jones. We can’t trust any receiver let alone Hoyer this weekend, especially against their tough defense. If anybody to take a shot on again is Rhamondre, he got you over 20 Fantasy points last week. Slowly he is easing his way into the James White role in New England, as a PPR machine.

Packers

A low-scoring, backup QB on the other side, just reeks of a very slow-paced game. Rodgers and the offense may take it easy this weekend and show very little urgency to New England, so let’s think about what pieces we want…Tonyan? He’s a very trusted weapon of Rodgers and has been flying under the radar for a while, a great punt at tight end for a GPP.

Cash: Packers DST

GPP: R. Stevenson, R. Tonyan

Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5) (O/U 45.5)

Broncos

Denver is still struggling to figure out their new identity, and it may take a while if you’ve been watching the play calling. Until Russell Wilson can get comfortable, he’ll lean on his running back Javonte Williams, as he should. So far he’s cooled off since his (11 REC/65 YRD) game in the opener, but that could change this week as Melvin Gordon is beginning to be eased out of his role.

Raiders

“A return of the Mack”? We better run it back with this dude. The second week in a row without Hunter Renfrow so Mack Hollins will see a larger role in the offense again. He’s looking to build off his (8 REC/158 YDS/ 1 TD) even though it’s a tougher matchup, Adams and Waller will demand priority defensive coverage over him. A significant bump up in salary too but is still reasonably priced considering his ceiling.

Cash: Jav. Williams

GPP: M. Hollins

Cash Core 4

J. Allen, S. Diggs, Jam Williams, M. Andrews

GPP Core 4

M. Trubisky, N. Chubb, M. Hollins, R. Tonyan

Stacks

J. Allen/Diggs; L. Jackson/M. Andrews; J. Goff/TJ Hockenson; M. Trubisky, D. Johnson

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 4 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 3 was solid, albeit unspectacular for our Tight End plays. Gerald Everett was a casualty of an embarrassing offensive day by the Chargers, but volume continued to be king! Let’s find some value and upside for Week 4 and make some cash!

Kye Pitts, Atlanta Falcons ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to officially invite you to Kyle Pitts SZN. He FINALLY saw some volume, with eight targets, and finished with a solid 5/87 line. The Browns have been around league average against opposing Tight Ends in 2022, and have yet to allow one to score. Kyle Pitts has yet to find the end zone this season. This looks like the week where both of those things change.

The Falcons are still a run-first offense, which limits Pitts’ upside a bit. They have run on just over 53% of their offensive plays so far this season. That said, volume is king, and a player with Pitts’ explosiveness and athleticism is going to produce when seeing more than a handful of looks.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

This may seem like point-chasing, but it sure didn’t look like it last Thursday against Pittsburgh. Njoku looked explosive, strong, athletic, and he absolutely bodied the Steelers’ D. After seeing just six total targets over the first two weeks, Njoku hauled in nine of his 10 targets for 89 yards and a score.

It seems crazy to say, but Jacoby Brissett has looked to be in complete control of the Browns offense. The Falcons have been the 31st-ranked team in the NFL against opposing TE, surrendering more than 20 fantasy PPG. This looks like a match made in heaven. Njoku is dirt-cheap on DraftKings too.

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)

There are three tight ends in the NFL with at least seven targets in every game this season. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and…Tyler Conklin. Yes, I know that Zach Wilson is returning this week, but that doesn’t change my stance here.

The Jets will look to get their young QB comfortable and in a rhythm early. Moving your full attention from cougars to football can’t be easy, but Wilson is up to the task. Conklin has been a consistent part of this offense in the early going, and has 10+ DK points in every game. He is a solid cash game target this weekend.

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

I’m going back to the well with Ertz this week. Despite a pedestrian 6/45 line against the Rams, Ertz still saw 10+ targets for the second straight week. On paper, Carolina looks like a tough matchup for opposing TE this season. Take that information with a grain of salt. They have faced the likes of Juwan Johnson and Tanner Hudson the last two games.

As I always say, volume is king, and Ertz continues to pull an elite target share. As long as DeAndre Hopkins is still out, Ertz needs to be on your radar. His upside is as high as any TE not named Andrews or Kelce.

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)

Without cheating, tell me which NFL team has allowed the most touchdowns to opposing TE? Yep. The New England Patriots. Most teams can get a pass after allowing a pair of scores to Mark Andrews, but Mike Gesicki and Pat Freiermuth found the end zone against the Pats in consecutive weeks.

With Davante Adams out of town, the Packers offense has struggled. There were some signs of life against Tampa Bay, as Romeo Doubs and Tonyan (6/37 on seven targets) saw consistent work. Adams ain’t walking back through that door, and we have seen Rodgers show confidence in his TE before. I’m a believer moving forward. My money is on New England serving up another score to keep their streak alive.

Needless to say, Mark Andrews is the top play, and if you can afford him, you will certainly want some exposure. Kansas City doesn’t play on the main slate, so you won’t have to worry about Travis Kelce.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 3, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 4 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Kye Pitts, Atlanta Falcons ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 3, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 3 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

One of the oldest rivalries in the NFL is the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. More than six decades of blood, sweat and tears have gone into this one. That said, this is a different Cowboys with Cooper Rush under center. The good news is that the spread is sitting at -1 for the Giants, but the bad news is the total is just 39 points. Let’s find ourselves an angle to make some cash on Monday Night.

MVP/Captain Plays

Saquon Barkley, Giants

Barkley threw back the clock to 2019 in Week 1, racking up 194 total yards and a touchdown on 24 touches. Week 2 wasn’t quite as kind to him, as he totaled 88 yards, but yet again had 24 touches. Barkley has elite usage and volume in this offense, and he is the most expensive player on this slate for good reason.

The Cowboys have allowed 100 rushing YPG in the young 2022 season. Barkley is the focal point of this offense, and needs to be one of your first targets on this slate. The Giants are one of just six teams averaging a rushing rate north of 50% through two games in 2022. Pick up your shares of Barkley for MNF.

Noah Brown, Cowboys

Call me crazy here, but Brown is worth a shot at your bonus spot on Monday Night. CeeDee Lamb will undoubtedly draw ownership, and rightfully so (don’t forget to get yourself some exposure to Mr. Lamb also). I’m taking some shots with Brown up top. He has played at least 85% of the offensive snaps in each game this season. Michael Gallup is still questionable to return for this one, but I don’t expect a huge drop off in snaps for Brown right away.

He has posted a 10/159/1 line on 14 targets through two weeks. He is a low-owned option for you to throw into your bonus spot to differentiate your lineups.

Daniel Jones, Giants

Listen, I know most of you aren’t believers in Jones as a franchise QB, but that doesn’t matter here. Jones has yet to break even the TWO-hundred yard mark passing in 2022. This one is likely to be low-scoring, but Jones adds the extra dimension of rushing floor and upside. He has rushed 16 times for 46 yards in 2022, but he is always a threat to vulture a goal-line score or break a long run. Another option with potentially low-ownership in the bonus spot, Jones could pay off big if things break his way.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Tony Pollard, Cowboys

I may be the only person who lives near THE Ohio State University who thinks this, but Tony Pollard is better than Ezekiel Elliott. Through two games in 2022, we are seeing it at times, but this may just be the night that he breaks out. Pollard is averaging just 48% of the offensive snaps, but he was efficient against the Bengals after a disastrous game vs Tampa Bay in the opener. Pollard carries nine times for 43 yards and a score, while hauling in four of seven targets for another 55 yards. Dallas has only had ONE rushing attempt inside the five yard line in 2022…and that ball went to Pollard. He scored. Zeke is a fade for me. I wouldn’t mind a shot or two on Tony in the bonus spot. FREE TONY POLLARD!

Sterling Shepard, Giants

As mentioned above, the Giants have almost a true 50/50 run/pass split, so I won’t be going too heavy on the passing game. However, Shepard is the target I’m after when Jones is throwing down the field. Shepard had 10 targets last week and played on 88% of the offensive snaps. If any non-Barkley option puts up a big receiving number for the G-Men, Shepard is your guy.

Brett Maher and Graham Gano

Low total game with two offenses that struggle to score points or finish drives. This game is a great spot to target kickers. These two are a combined 7/7 to start the season. Take advantage of some sputtering offenses in this one and lock in some points in the kicking game. I’ll be throwing both in a few lineups, but will have exposure to at least one in most lineups.

A few others to consider are David Sills, who played 92% of the offensive snaps for the Giants last week. He seems to have surpassed Kenny Golladay on the depth chart, and Kadarius Toney is hardly seeing the field either.

Daulton Schultz is still questionable for this one, and if he misses or is limited, Jake Ferguson needs to be on your radar. He played more than half of the offensive snaps in Week 2, and is just $200 on DraftKings. Don’t expect a break out performance by any means, but he is a free square that could crush value.

Tanner Hudson and Daniel Bellinger each saw opportunity against Carolina, and although Bellinger found the end zone, he saw only the lone target while Hudson saw three. Hudson is $2,800 cheaper on DraftKings, and would be my TE punt of choice between the two.

I’m prioritizing the Cowboys defense over the Giants here, and Micah Parsons is the main reason why. He is a game-wrecker, and is easily the MVP of this team in 2022. He is among the early leaders for DPOY, and for good reason. The Cowboys defense carries a lot more upside here.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 3

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

What a way to follow up on the 2022 – 23 season…Week 2 was full of action! Loaded with upsets and monster performances, if you stacked that Miami/Baltimore game you are sitting on a lot of green! Again our models came through in the clutch for cash games, so stay right here we have Week 3 around the corner and you don’t want to miss out. Our team of experts is here to help 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds, who to start, or fade. Thanks again everybody, it’s been such an awesome season so far, and now back to the grind!

Sunday Main Slate 9/25/22

Chiefs @ Colts (+5.5) (O/U 50.5)

Chiefs

Kansas City is one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league and will need to utilize it in Indianapolis since Shaq Leonard and Deforest Buckner have held opponents to a mere 2.7 yards per carry. So Mahomes and Kelce will need to move the chains in the air, totally safe for cash. Consider also Mecole Hardman ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) for a sneaky value in this match-up, who’s seen just over 56% of snaps with 10 targets.

Update: Shaq Leonard (Colts) is out, CEH is good to go!

Colts

Matt Ryan and company are still looking for their first win of the season, but it could be an uphill battle with KC. They’ll need their bell cow Jonathon Taylor to get off to a good start in order to play keep away from Pat Mahomes. His price is way too steep for a potential Chiefs blow out so no thanks. We’ll see if Indy can get Michael Pittman healthy enough for Sunday, they’ll need all hands on deck. Andy Reid will have extra coverage on him if he does play. The Colts are just way too thin at weapons to compete with these AFC West Juggernauts, but if you really need a Colt this week, Ryan will have great value ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel).

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, CEH

GPP: M. Ryan, M. Hardman

Bills @ Dolphins (+6) (O/U 52.5)

Bills

Buffalo steamrolled thru the defending champs and last year’s AFC number-one seed scoring 72 points in 2 games. They’ll want to keep that momentum moving to take control of the division in Miami, which has plenty of shoot-out potential. Allen and Diggs are a bulletproof stack and a no-brainer for cash but they will eat up your cap space. Gabe Davis still has a lingering ankle injury, but if he is good to go for Sunday, try to plug him in for the up-side value. Otherwise, pivot to Dawson Knox.

Dolphins

6 Touchdowns for Tua in the comeback win in Baltimore, with Waddle and Tyreek both having 40-plus fantasy points last week. The number one-ranked defense is in town but without pro bowl safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Dane Jackson….oh boy are we in for a treat from Miami again! Salaries are up, but well worth it in this clash of these AFC East Titans. We’re good across the board for these three, start up your fins!

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, D. Knox (if G. Davis is out) G. Davis (if healthy)

Cash/GPP: T. Tagovailoa, J. Waddle, T. Hill

Eagles @ Commanders (+6.5) (O/U 47)

Eagles

They look to be the team to beat in the NFC, putting up 38 in Detroit and manhandling Minnesota at home. Hurts has shown to be fantasy reliable so far, and punishing the weak opposing defenses. A J Brown was quiet, but not needed last game. we saw Devonta Smith show up Monday night with 15 fantasy points. Running Back Miles Sanders has also been surprisingly trustworthy this season averaging 90 yards a game rushing. Dallas Goedert has been quiet but is due a game, owning 90 % of the snaps. Let it ride in Philly!

Commanders

Will Wentz get his revenge on the Eagles and pull off the upset at home? Don’t be so quick to jump on the hype train, he’s been way too inconsistent for me. He’s looked like a deer in headlights in the first half of each game so far but somehow pulls off a decent fantasy game in the end. Not against this defense, not after what happened to Cousins on Monday. Check out Curtis Samuel or Logan Thomas for Washington this week. Samuel is heavily used in the scheme and leading the team in targets (20) while Thomas owns the lion’s share of snaps (73%) for Commander tight ends.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown, M. Sanders, D. Goedert, C. Samuel

GPP: D. Smith, L. Thomas

Bengals @ Jets (+5) (O/U 45)

Bengals

The reigning AFC champs hit Broadway this week, but have looked like they’ve hit rock bottom at 0-2. Burrow’s reconstructed O-line has allowed him to be sacked tremendously but it may be the fact that he’s been holding the ball way too long. But his match-up is too good to be true and the Jets have no one in their secondary. Chase will feast, but Higgins comes at a discount and is a little more attractive. I didn’t forget about Mixon who should eat plenty here, (Jets run D @ 23rd overall) and grab a couple of Bengals for cash.

Jets

Flacco pulled a rabbit out of a hat on the road in Cleveland, can he run it back? Not worth the risk against Cincinnatti hungry for their first win. The rookie Garrett Wilson exploded for two touchdowns including the walk-off in the end zone and popped up on our radar. I still do like Michael Carter who still is leading the backfield and Elijah Moore’s price hit $5,000 on DraftKings who in my eyes is still the alpha. These Jets are viable in a GPP, but feel free to fade them if you want to play it safe.

Cash: J. Burrow, T. Higgins, J.Mixon

GPP: M. Carter, E. Moore, G. Wilson

Ravens @ Patriots (+2.5) (O/U 43.5)

Ravens

Don’t anticipate another back-and-forth game like Miami had in Week 2, Baltimore is averaging 31 points per game whereas the Pats are only putting up 12. Lamar is looking more and more this year like his old 2019 MVP form, giving Baltimore more of a reason to sign him long-term. He is totally safe this week on the road, as the Pats will not have anyone to contain him. Keep a close eye too on Devin Duvernay’s concussion status, if he is unable to play Demarcus Robinson would give you a nice cap space saver to slide in ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel).

Update: Duvernay cleared to play, fade Robinson.

Patriots

They may be able to slow down the Ravens and grind it out, but Mac Jones I’m afraid will not be able to put up as many points against them. And since the receiving core is so crowded, we truly never know where the ball is headed either. Rhamondre Stevenson still owns 40 % of that backfield and is listed as their change-of-pace running back, I would consider him a GPP flyer for potential check-downs by Jones.

Cash: L. Jackson, D. Robinson (if Duvernay is out)

GPP: R. Stevenson

Lions @ Vikings (-6) (O/U 53)

Lions

Even though their defense has been a hot mess, Detroit still can light up the scoreboard averaging 35 points per game. Of all the talent I think we need to go back to the well of Amon Ra who’s demanded the ball from Jared Goff dating back to last season. That’s 8 straight games of double-digit targets catching 68 balls with 8 touchdowns. He’s dominated the game plan for Detroit causing other players’ production to drop… so I’m interested in T J Hockenson at ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) for value in this pass-friendly game.

Vikings

Cousins looked awful Monday night, but Detroit will bring him back to the fantasy promise lands. He’ll look to feed Jefferson at will, who the Lions have been unable to slow down. In two games in 2021, J J has caught 18 balls for 306 yards and a touchdown. Very safe for cash, and how about a punt at tight end…Irv Smith. Minnesota wants to get him the ball, just ($3,100 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel), caught 5 of 8 targets with a touchdown in Phila. He also led in snaps amongst tight ends for Minnesota which is good to see.

Cash: K. Cousins, J. Jefferson, A. St. Brown, I. Smith

GPP: T. Hockenson, J. Goff

Raiders @ Titans (+2) (O/U 45.5)

Raiders

Vegas is probably the best 0-2 team in football. After suffering 2 heart-wrenching losses to open the season, they will look to beat up on the also win-less Titans. It appears Hunter Renfrow may miss this one because of concussion protocols, so Tennessee will see a heavy dose of Carr to Adams. Tennessee has also been struggling on offense with defenses exposing Tannehill as an imposter at quarterback, keeping them off the scoreboard and game-scripting out Derek Henry.

Titans

If the Titans want to make a stand this week, they’ll need to get back to the basics…run the damn ball. Henry needs to be used to his full potential, and if he can break off a few big chunks of yardage, that should open up the play-action passing routes. But the O-line is atrocious without Taylor Lewan, so Henry is a tournament option only, but I have a funny feeling that they’re going to increase his workload this Sunday.

Cash: D. Carr, D. Adams, Raiders DST

GPP: D. Henry

Saints @ Panthers (-3) (O/U 40.5)

Saints

Oh man, what pieces do we really want from the Saints in this match-up? Carolina’s defense is not as good as Tampa’s, but they can still cause Jameis, sore back and all, to turn the ball over. New Orleans has also shown us something on defense, and Baker has been out of rhythm himself. Good landing spot for defense, New Orleans holds its weight in a DST

Panthers

Baker looks like he still needs the training wheels on for this offense and lacks chemistry with his weapons, especially McCaffrey. Maybe they’ll get something going together in week 3 but just too risky for our cash games. Let’s wait another week for the offense to bloom, but I have no problem with that Panther D facing a broken Jameis.

Cash: Panthers DST

GPP: Saints DST

Texans @ Bears (-3) (O/U 40)

Texans

Lovie Smith is back in town, but nothing to get excited about really. Smith is an old-school former Bears coach who believes in playing defense and running the ball…(yawn). This game script will put Dameon Pierce in the driver’s seat and may be in line for a big game. Aaron Jones of the Packers torched the Bears for 132 yards on foot last week, at Pierce’s current DFS salary ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) those numbers are like an all-you-can-eat buffet. Chicago linebacker Roquan Smith has already been ruled out which makes Pierce even more appetizing.

Bears

Chicago has one of the top three offensive lines in the league and will be force-feeding David Montgomery up the gut of Houston’s front line. The volume is cranked up for Montgomery, who saw 80% of the snaps and averaged 8 yards per carry for 122. Chicago is still reluctant to let quarterback Justin Fields air it out (28 Pass Attempts in 2 games) and should continue to keep it on the ground.

Cash: D. Pierce, D Montgomery

Jaguars @ Chargers (-7) (O/U 47)

Jaguars

No J C Jackson (ankle) for LA… so it’s on for Trevor Lawerence! Kirk could have another monster game as he has been Lawrence’s shiny new toy in Jacksonville. The duo has connected on 12 catches for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns so far this season. I prefer these two in a tourney though, better safe than sorry. But hold the phone, Herbert is a little banged up with a rib and Chase Daniels has been taking first-team reps, we may want to use their defense if Herbert can’t go.

Chargers

Not only did Herbert pop up on the injury report, but Keenan Allen is also still there with his hammy. I hate to write this but we may need to keep Chargers out of our DFS. Even if they do give it a shot to play, they may not finish the game. Plenty of other ways to go this slate let’s fade LAC this time.

Cash: None

GPP: T. Lawrence, C. Kirk

Packers @ Bucs (-1.5) (41.5)

Packers

Aaron Rodgers has plummeted down the QB rankings mainly because his receiver core is on empty. I’m not feeling anyone for cash here if anything this will be a big Aaron Jones/A J Dillon day, but as we know you can’t run on the Bucs. We’ll take a pass in DFS on the offense, but the defense would be interesting since Brady is in the same boat.

Bucs

Brady could be totally de-weaponized in week 3. Evans was suspended, Godwin was injured, and everyone else’s status is still up in the air. But it looks like Fournette could be the last man standing in The Goat’s circle of trust. If he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a ton of work. Rodgers as well is having issues with the Packers being thin at receiver, Tampa’s D would be a smart move if this game does turn out to be very low scoring.

Cash: L. Fournette

GPP: GB DST, TB DST

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5) (O/U 48.5)

Rams

LA has owned the Cards since 2017 with a record of 10-1 and could make it 11-1 this Sunday if Stafford has a repeat performance. Serving up 272 yards with 3 touchdowns again would crush his salary but we may want to think twice about pairing with Kupp. He’s been held to only 6 catches per game in 2021 by Budda Baker and Byron Murphy, the only duo who has been able to contain him. I do like Higbee in this match-up, He is owning 94 % of the snaps in LA and is second in targets (20) behind Kupp.

Cardinals

Some good news for Kyler Murray as the Rams will be without corners, David Long and Cobie Durant. Even Jordan Fuller might not make it in after pulling a hamstring Thursday and would allow Murray to better take apart that secondary. The Cards have their own issues with James Connor being a game-time decision, so we should just look at the tight end Ertz, who has been rejuvenated in the desert. While catching 10 of 15 targets in 2 games with a touchdown, he’s generously priced at ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel)

Cash M. Stafford, C. Kupp, K. Murray

GPP: Z. Ertz, T. Higbee

Falcons @ Seahawks (+1) (O/U 42)

Falcons

Atlanta for being 0-2 has played pretty decently given their roster. They were up big in week 1 before the Saints rallied back and last week they made a comeback of their own against the defending champs. They actually have a shot here in Seattle, Mariota is not the most talented quarterback, but he takes what the defense gives him. Kyle Pitts has been on lock by defenses, opening the door for the rookie London to have a breakout ( 8 catches/86 yards/1TD). London will continue to lead the team unless defenses give him more respect and let Pitts finally eat. I’m OK with these three in a tournament only, Seattle missing Jamal Adams gives Mariota a little extra breathing room with the football.

Seahawks

Geno Smith has not done much so far, but not because of him more so the coaching staff. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been two Porsches covered up in a garage, collecting dust. We’ll see if Pete Carroll gives a little more leash to Geno and let him throw a little more especially against the 31st rank secondary in the league. It would also be nice to get a game from Rashaad Penny as Atlanta allow close to 5 yards per carry to opposing backs. Of course, all for GPP purposes everyone, we can’t use Seattle in cash.

Cash: None

GPP: M. Mariota, D. London, K. Pitts, G. Smith, DK Metcalf, T. Lockett, R. Penny

Cash Core 4

J. Hurts, J. Jefferson, T. Kelce, L. Fournette

GPP Core 4

M. Mariota, D. Pierce, I. Smith, C. Kirk

Stacks

J. Allen/S. Diggs/G. Davis; T. Tua/J. Waddle/T, Hill; D. Carr/D. Adams; J. Hurts/A. Brown; K. Cousins/J. Jefferson; P. Mahomes/T. Kelce; M. Stafford/C. Kupp; J. Goff/A. St. Brown; L. Fournette/ Tampa DST

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 3 NFL DFS GPP Lineups

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

A big miss on my end to not discuss the Baltimore/Miami game last week. Congrats to those who played it! Now let’s get right back at it for Week 3. To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

There’s no denying the popular plays of Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are fantastic. If you’re into them, I will not talk you off of them, but I’ll likely be keeping my exposure to them in mass multi entry contests and cash games. In single entry or 3-max GPPs, here’s where I’m looking to go:

Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD)

A sub-5% owned Mahomes in a dome, against a banged up Colts’ defense that runs Cover-3 coverage at a league high rate is all systems go for me and the AETY Model. On a slate with Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, we need upside if we’re going to go elsewhere and Patrick Mahomes offers just that and little-to-no ownership.

Stacking Options: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman
Run-Back Options: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.

Matthew Stafford ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Getting exposure to the highest expected tempo on the slate is more times than not going to work out in your favor and pairing that with a matchup against one of the worst defenses in football certainly should help. The AETY Model projects Stafford and the Rams for the second highest passing yards on this slate (second to Mahomes) and there’s no ownership going to Stafford (sub 5%).

I prefer to limit my Stafford exposure to a 3-max type of contest, but I have no problems with you taking that route in single entry. The 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA) is going to get torched and as long as you think Kyler Murray and the Cardinals can keep this one close and up-tempo, Stafford should be in for a field day.

Stacking Options: Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Tyler Higbee
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Greg Dortch

Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,500 FD)

Simply put, the Bengals are damn-near in “must-win” territory and what better time for Burrow and the Bengals to absolutely light up the worst secondary in the NFL? The Jets dead-last in pass defense DVOA and have had an insanely hard time generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This is a statement game for Burrow and the Bengals. I love the buy-low spot being offered by these sites for my NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Stacking Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins
Run-Back Options: Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Tyler Conklin, Michael Carter

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Marcus Mariota (great value)

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

This is a week where NO-ONE is going to pay up at running back (David Montgomery, Dameon Pierce, and Leonard Fournette leading the pack in ownership by a mile…and for good reason). I’m not sure that I will either due to the lack of production from high-end backs so far this season and my appetite to load up these top tier wide receivers. If you want to guarantee yourself a nice way to get different, it’s paying up at RB.

Jonathan Taylor ($9,000 DK / $9,400 FD)
Derrick Henry ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD)
Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD)

Miles Sanders ($5,500 DK / $6,800 FD)

Sitting right around 10-12% in current ownership projections is one of the most talented running backs who’s starting to break away with the lead running back role in Philadelphia. Sanders offers us the perfect leverage off of Jalen Hurts chalk (Hurts may very well have a great game), but Miles Sanders projects as the 4th best value on the slate according to the AETY Model and goes up against the worst run defense on the model and 2nd worse in DVOA. Let’s ride.

Rashaad Penny ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

Kenneth Walker being activated and used a bit in both the rushing and passing game downgrades this play quite a bit, but the lead back in Seattle is still Rashaad Penny until further notice. I somewhat like this Atlanta/Seattle game and think it can be a low-key, no ownership type of gross shootout. While everyone is going to play Dameon Pierce, pivoting down to Rashaad Penny (who the AETY Model likes almost just as much as Pierce) may be a 1% owned play that can make a difference in NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: Devin Singletary, Joe Mixon, David Montgomery

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

We don’t need to discuss how great of plays Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill are. Considering ownership, I’d rank them Jefferson, Kupp, Adams, Hill, Diggs. You know they are fine plays and should feel confident loading them in your lineups or game-stacks.

Ja’Maar Chase ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD)

The ownership projection is sub-3% right now for Ja’Maar Chase… I’m in. Chase should have an absolute field day against this Jets’ secondary and offer us a great low-owned pivot off of the chalkier studs listed above.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)

I spoke all summer about Matt Ryan WR1’s and won’t stop now. I absolutely love the Chiefs’ side of this game and would start my run-back in those stacks with Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman moves all around the formation and will have a positive gamescript as soon as the Chiefs march down the field and score twice. We know Frank Reich will try to avoid this game becoming a shootout, but I doubt they can they can keep the Chiefs contained for long.

Gabriel Davis ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

While the world world rushes to load up on Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs stacks (there’s no shame in that, it’s been the nuts all year long thus far), I’ll be prioritizing the cheaper, un-owned wide receiver to ensure I get a strong piece of this Bills’ offense in Gabe Davis. Xavien Howard will likely travel with Stefon Diggs (advantage still to Diggs) but at that ownership, I’ll take the stance that Howard does enough to limit the ceiling of Diggs and let hope for a big game out of Davis against Nik Needham, Keion Crossen, and rookie, Kader Kohou.

Drake London ($5,800 DK / $6,200 FD)

London is a true WR1 who currently sits 4th in the NFL for WR target share. The price is a sham and the matchup is absolutely sexy (Seattle grades 30th in pass defense DVOA). I mentioned my small interested in Rashaad Penny earlier and I’ll definitely prioritize Drake London as a mini game-stack or solely as a one-off in NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Tee Higgins, Marquise Brown, Tyler Lockett, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Treylon Burks, Mecole Hardman

NFL DFS GPP Punt Plays

Mack Hollins
Nico Collins
Greg Dortch
Scotty Miller

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,900 DK / $7,800 FD)

A 5-10% owned Travis Kelce against a banged up Colts’ defense who grades 31st in DVOA against opposing tight-ends…

Darren Waller ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD)

Without Hunter Renfrow, Mack Hollins and Darren Waller got a significant upgrade in the AETY Model. My only concern here is the expected pace of play, but the enhanced workload and price in NFL DFS GPP lineups makes Waller a top-tier tight-end this weekend.

Dallas Goedert ($4,700 DK / $5,500 FD)

The price is way too cheap for the number two passing target in one of the most highest scoring, up-tempo offenses in the NFL. The Eagles are doing a fantastic job putting Goedert in plus matchups against linebackers and and nickel corners. If you’re going to stack with Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert and AJ Brown are the clear options here.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Irv Smith Jr., Tyler Conklin

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 3 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Week 2 saw some big performances from the likes of Mark Andrews (9/104/1) and Darren Waller (6/50/1), and some disappointments (looking at you, Dalton Schultz). The more data we have, the better. Here’s to Week 3 being a lucrative one!

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 3 on DraftKings and FanDuel! Let’s kick off Week 3 with some Tight End picks!

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

After two weeks, the TE leading the NFL in targets is…Tyler Higbee. He has seen 11 and 9 targets, respectively, and parlayed those opportunities into 12/110. While he hasn’t found paydirt yet, this type of volume keeps him in play each week. The Rams have the 6th-highest passing rate in the NFL this season at nearly 66%.

Cooper Kupp will always be the top target here, but Higbee has become Mr. Reliable. Higbee has seen three Red Zone targets over two weeks, including three inside the 10. He may not have the upside you’re looking for to win a GPP, but he is a safe, solid bet for your cash lineup.

The Cardinals have been brutalized by opposing TE thus far in 2022, allowing a ridiculous 19/212/3 line over just two weeks. Smash spot.

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

The Arizona Cardinals offense has been stagnant early in 2022. They have seemingly sleep-walked through the first half of each game before piling on the stats late. In DFS, we don’t care when the points come.

The good news? Ertz is leading all TE with five targets inside the RedZone in 2022. Even better? After being limited with only 39 snaps in Week 1, Ertz led all players at the position with 73 in Week 2.

He seems criminally underpriced for a player who tied with Mark Andrews with most TE targets in Week 2 (11). A matchup against the Rams doesn’t scare me one bit. The Cardinals are 3.5 point underdogs with a total hovering around 50. Ertz looks like an elite play across the board, despite a perceived tough matchup.

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

This isn’t a sexy play, but Conklin needs to be on your radar again this week. The Jets have thrown the ball on a ridiculous 74.66% of their offensive plays in 2022. This is mainly a product of playing from behind, but the point remains.

Conklin is the only TE in the NFL who has seem 70+ snaps each week. Joe Flacco has targeted him 16 times in those two games. The Bengals have allowed nearly 70 YPG to TE in 2022, and are currently listed as 4.5 point favorites. Flacco may just keep slinging it until his arm falls off at this point.

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

Everett may find himself in the doghouse after last week, but that remains to be seen. If you missed it, Everett was targeted on consecutive plays. The Chargers ran hurry-up, Everett called to the sideline to come out of the game and was waved off. Justin Herbert looked his way at the goal-line and Everett was gassed. Pick-6. Game-changer.

I’m choosing to look past that and focus on the good. Everett has hauled in nine of 14 targets for 125 yards and a score over two games this season (6-71 on 10 targets in Week 2). The status of Keenan Allen will likely play a huge factor for Everett’s target share. Be sure to watch out for his status, and Everett’s floor and ceiling will take a hit if he returns in Week 3.

Jacksonville has been tough on opposing TE in 2022, but they haven’t played anyone of note. Give Everett a look this week, especially if Allen can’t go.

Irv Smith Jr, Minnesota Vikings ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel

Smith paid off in a big way on Monday night, but it could have been so much better. He dropped a WIDE OPEN ball that most likely would have been a long touchdown. Despite this gaffe, his 5/36/1 line on eight targets was exactly what we were looking for.

He still only saw 34 snaps, but that was nearly double his total from Week 1 (19). Justin Jefferson was shut down by Darius Slay (but mostly by Kirk Cousins), which opened up more opportunities for Smith. The Lions have had issues on the defensive end this season, allowing 65 points in two games. If Cousins can get it together, this one has shootout potential. Take a look at TJ Hockenson on the opposite side as well.

I don’t need to tell you to play the likes of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, but they are elite plays regardless of matchup.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 3, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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