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NFL DFS GPP

NFL DFS Week 14: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Monster Week 13 for the Win Daily family! The Discord Diamond, Trent Sherfield paid off in bunches, though I didn’t expect it to happen the way that it did (we were lucky with that as he only had one reception, but it was a 75-yard house call). Let’s keep it rolling for our Week 14 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

SLATE NOTES: This is a unique slate with only one game possessing a total over 50-points and that will certainly bring a lot of condensed chalk. I won’t write about the top-tier quarterbacks because this slate seems to scream play down towards the value quarterbacks, but if you want to get different, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen will all be around 5% ownership in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow ($7,000 DK / $8,300 FD) – Burrow is the obvious “value” in terms of the top tier quarterbacks who regularly put up solid fantasy outputs. This is one of the higher total games on the slate at 47.5-points and Burrow has been on a tear of late. All of his weapons are back and healthy and the addition of Joe Mixon should really open up this offense as a whole, against the Cleveland Browns 27th ranked defense in total DVOA. Burrow is one of the few who are getting massive respect from the sportsbooks with a passing prop around 280 yards and a passing touchdown prop showing an implied probability of 2+ passing touchdowns.

Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon
Run-Back Options: Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb
Jared Goff ($5,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – Hello Mr. Chalk, Jared Goff. If that sounds absolutely disgusting to you, I don’t blame you. I have dug into this slate in every single way that I can in hopes to find a strong reason to fade Jared Goff… I was unsuccessful. Simply put, on DraftKings, Jared Goff is going to be 70% owned in cash games and likely 30-40% owned in NFL DFS GPP contests. That is absurd, but it makes sense in this matchup.

Having said that, as much as I would like to get different in my main lineup (I’m using Goff in cash regardless), I cannot find a lineup construction that offers the high-floor and high-ceiling combo that I get when I do start my build with Jared Goff. So, in order for me to get different when using Goff, I’m going IN on this Minnesota @ Detroit game-stack. And when I mean “IN”, I mean all the way the f*** in. Based on early ownership projections, the field is going to pair Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown and run it back with Justin Jefferson. That is the chalk trio of the week (in addition to Greg Dulcich who we will discuss later). If those are your first four clicks of your lineup, good luck cashing this week unless you get significantly different elsewhere.

So, my plan of attack is to get even more exposure to this game and I’ll do that by adding DJ Chark to that Amon-Ra/Goff pairing (double-stacking it) and running it back with Justin Jefferson AND Dalvin Cook.

My narrative here: Minnesota has no issues moving the football and I want their two biggest touchdown threats in Cook and Jefferson. In return, I want Goff and the Lions to have to rely on the air attack and using their two biggest red-zone threats in St. Brown and DJ Chark. If this game script goes in favor of Jamaal Williams for NFL DFS lineups, I’m in trouble (hint: maybe that is your way to get different in this game).

Stack Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, D’Andre Swift
Run-Back Options: Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, TJ Hockenson, Adam Thielen
Russell Wilson ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – VOMIT ALERT! I’ve had a lot of success recently by using a pure punt quarterback and pairing them with a cheap pass-catcher. As mentioned above, Greg Dulcich is going to be the highest owned player on this slate, and for good reason. The negative gamescript (assuming Kansas City has their way with Denver) bodes great for Dulcich and possibly Jerry Jeudy (Courtland Sutton is OUT). I look at Dulcich the same way I looked at Pat Freiermuth last week. He’s a valuable, chalk tight-end who is a top-two target in their offense, in a good matchup.

So, like Kenny Pickett last week (he honestly didn’t get there, but my lineups did due to the price of Pickett and Freiermuth allowing me to fill my lineup with studs), I need Wilson to find a way to get 15+ points and be efficient in the red-zone. Similar to Pickett, Russell Wilson has a bit of a rushing floor that not many quarterbacks on this slate have other than Tyler Huntley, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. Huntley is the only one in the same price-tier as Wilson, but I have no interest in Huntley against the Steelers defense (maybe I’m right on that fade, maybe I’m wrong… I’m not telling you not to play Huntley… he offers great leverage if you think the Steelers’ defense chalk can fail).

*I have no interest in Kendall Hinton.

Stack Options: Greg Dulcich, Jerry Jeudy
Run-Back Options: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pachecho, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith (incredible leverage play against the chalk Panthers’ defense)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD) – Derrick Henry was a non-factor last week against a very stout Eagles’ run defense (thanks a lot to Jordan Davis). Henry was flat-out gamescripted out of that contest in a hurry. This week, things get a bit easier for Derrick Henry as he’ll be at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a more neutral, if not positive gamescript. Jacksonville’s run defense is much improved this year, but Derrick Henry has the highest implied probability for a touchdown and rushing yards in both the AETY Model and sportsbooks this week.
Dalvin Cook ($7,300 DK / $8,700 FD) – Spoke more about Dalvin Cook above with Jared Goff. Priority play for me in NFL DFS GPP contests on DraftKings specifically.
Joe Mixon ($6,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – Mixon is back from concussion protocol and is likely to be the highest owned running back on the slate as this is the “nuts” matchup against the Browns’ 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). In cash, you likely need to take the chalk route and ride Mixon, but in NFL DFS GPP contests, I have my reservations. It seems as if some of the public is worried about Samaje Perine carving out himself a sustainable role in this offense… Some in this industry think that is nonsense, others think it has some teeth.

I am one of those that thinks Perine getting respectable snaps is a real possibility. I look at it this way: the Bengals are a much better football team when both Mixon and Perine are healthy. This is a team with Superbowl aspirations and Superbowl talent. I find it hard to believe that the Bengals would ask Joe Mixon to pass block and take all of the third-down work when Samaje Perine has proven he is very capable of doing so himself. Maybe I am wrong, but I’d much rather find the extra $400 on DraftKings this week in GPP contests and pay-up for Dalvin Cook at half the ownership. If Mixon comes out and doesn’t leave the field, I’ll sleep just fine knowing that’s how I didn’t have a great fantasy weekend.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,700 DK / $7,300 FD) – Cheap exposure to the Kansas City offense in a plus matchup where they are projected to have a significant lead throughout this game. I’m going right back to the well on Isiah Pachecho this week and almost took down $100,000 because of him last week (if Travis Kelce doesn’t fumble on that put-away drive, I likely get the 2-3 extra points from Pacheco to take down the tournament… sigh). Pacheco is starting to ramp up his route running (only three less routes than McKinnon last week) and that mid-season narrative that he doesn’t catch passes is slowly going by the waste side. Go get yourself two touchdowns, Mr. Pacheco!

*UPDATE: I’ll keep an eye on Leonard Fournette. If he is OUT, Rachaad White becomes a cash-game freesquare and viable in GPP contests as well.

Honorable Mention: Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, D’Onta Foreman, James Cook (risky as hell but the sportsbooks opened his rushing prop equal to their RB1, Devin Singletary)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

*Some of these plays below are no-brainers that you already know are in a fantastic fantasy environment for both NFL DFS cash games and GPP lineups, so I’ll spare you some time and skip their write-ups.

Justin Jefferson ($9,000 DK / $9,300 FD)
AJ Brown ($8,000 DK / $8,400 FD) & Devonta Smith ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jalen Hurts is my favorite quarterback on this slate but the price is significant if you’re trying to get quality exposure to Minnesota and Detroit. If you can find a creative way to do so (or full-fade that game), AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are in incredible matchups here against the Giants’ 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA). Both of these Eagles’ wideouts tear up Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense and that is what we will see in New York.
Ja’Maar Chase ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD)
DK Metcalf ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD) & Tyler Lockett ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD) – My second favorite low-owned stack (behind the Eagles) is the Seattle Seahawks against a respectable Carolina secondary. Despite the Carolina Panthers having a solid, healthy secondary, you know how I feel about DK Metcalf… you cannot cover him. The Panthers are likely to be 20% or more in ownership in all NFL DFS contests this weekend and simply using the Seahawks’ passing attack against their Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defense is beautiful tournament leverage.
DJ Moore ($5,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – Moore is the only game in town for this Carolina passing attack and will likely receive a significant amount of ownership. In cash games, that is something we’ll want to ride and if you want to take the cheap WR1 in NFL DFS GPP contests, I’m okay with it as he offers a perfect, value run-back to Seattle stacks.
Jerry Jeudy ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – If I’m playing Russell Wilson, I have to be interested in his top pass-catcher in Jerry Jeudy now that Courtland Sutton is out. Kendall Hinton drawing 10% ownership is laughable. I’ll ride with one of the best route runners in the NFL in a likely negative gamescript against a beatable Chiefs’ secondary. Jeudy is an excellent 2% owned pivot off of DJ Moore chalk, but you would have to trust Russell Wilson if you’re playing Jeudy… that is tough to do and this play is not for the faint of heart.
Zay Jones ($4,700 DK / $6,300 FD) – Not a big fan of tooting the own horn, but how dead on were we last week about fading Zay Jones and jamming in all the Christian Kirk that we could? This week, I love going back to Zay Jones as he was a massive letdown for the donkey public last week but enters a prime, get-right matchup against a Titans’ defense that refuses to blitz the quarterback (when Trevor Lawrence struggles most). We’ve written up the Titans’ being an absolute pass funnel defense and at this price, Zay Jones is a perfect player to take advantage of that brutal secondary.
THE DISCORD DIAMOND…

Julio Jones ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – Back by popular demand is the 0% projected ownership Discord Diamond. We absolutely smashed last week with Trent Sherfield (again, we got lucky, not really happy about that, but it worked) and we’ll go back to the well this week with Julio Jones?!

There is not a ton of wide receiver “punt value” that I believe in this week and the only players that fit the mold for the Discord Diamond (in terms of routes ran, price, and ownership) were:

– Elijah Moore (still like him, this should be an excellent matchup on the inside against a struggling Taron Johnson and the Bills’ secondary as a whole)
– Phillip Dorsett (meh)
– Julio Jones

So… yea, looking at the options above, we’re going with Julio Jones. There isn’t a whole lot of great things to say about this Buccaneers’ offense, but they are the AETY Model’s anticipated leader in terms of pass attempts with our without Fournette being active. At these low-price punts, we really need any boost of volume that we can find and the Bucs’ offense checks that box. In addition, Julio Jones will mainly lineup against the 49ers worst cover-corner in Demmodore Lenoir. Jones has a damn-near half-a-foot height advantage and is still is showing his playmaking prowess over the past couple weeks. Shannahan will likely try to scheme away the home-run ability to Mike Evans leaving Julio Jones 1-on-1 with Lenoir… good luck.

Outside of the limited man coverage we’ll see from the 49ers, Julio Jones gets a nice boost to his baseline target share against the 49ers’ Cover-3 zone. It’s very likely Julio Jones is a dud, but if you NEED a 0% owned cheapie, Julio Jones would be my guy.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, Gabe Davis, Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Elijah Moore

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,600 DK / $8,000 FD)
Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – Significant target shares with Tyler Huntley last year. I’m not really into this game at all, but this is a great price for Mark Andrews on a slate where everyone is paying down.
TJ Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – Excellent pivot to get exposure to this projected shootout at low ownership. When the Lions’ show their Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense, Hockenson will be a priority target for Kirk Cousins.
Greg Dulcich ($3,400 DK / $5,400 FD) – On DraftKings, just take the freesquare of Greg Dulcich in a matchup where he should heavily utilized against the Chiefs’ league leading Cover-2 rate.

*P.S. – it’s hilarious to see Chig Okonkwo at 10% ownership projection… you’re a week late folks, but not if you’re a Win Daily member!

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Joe Mixon
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jared Goff
DJ Moore
Greg Dulcich

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 13

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

It felt like only yesterday that we kicked off the NFL season and already it’s Week 13. And what a week we are in store for in DFS, with five of the twelve games having totals of 47 to 52.5. As you will read in this article, there will be so many ways to victory that you may be forced to create more lineups than you normally would. Also, make sure you check out my take on the Cleveland/Houston matchup, don’t be so quick to run and use Deshaun Watson in his first game back in 700 days. Not to throw any shade on him, but by all means, go with your gut if you are feeling that move. This week just has a smorgasbord of pivots and angles to attack in DFS, so remember to refer back to our Discord and Projection Models when building your lineups. Let’s gooo!

Sunday Main Slate 12/4/22

Titans @ Eagles (-4.5) (O/U 44.5)

Titans

Tennessee will continue to ride the coattails of Derrick Henry and not make it a secret. But will he come up short again like last week? The Eagles have made some improvements in free agency (Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph) but continue to get gashed by opposing running backs (Aaron Jones and A J Dillon combined for over 35 DK PTS). Henry is always a reliable DFS running back but for this week let’s keep him out of our cash games and roll him in GPPs.

Eagles

With a record of 10-1, the Eagles appear destined for glory this season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a lock week in and week out, but in this matchup, we may see receiver A J Brown in a get-right revenge game against his former team. Facing a skank secondary that is 28th in DVOA to receivers, Brown is destined for the end zone against a Titans’ organization that refused to pay him and get traded away for a first-round pick in 2022.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown

GPP: D. Henry

Jets @ Vikings (-3) (O/U 45)

Jets

We may have seen the last of Zach Wilson this year after Mike White’s performance. I mentioned him in my breakdown last week that he would crush his salary (27.8 DK FPTS) and yet again he lines up in another great spot against Minnesota (28th in DVOA to QBs) in a dome. White is not the only Jet you may want to take this weekend. The running backs here are loaded with value (James Robinson, Ty Johnson, and Zonovan Knight) but are way too risky to decide on, so use any in a GPP. A much safer play would be pairing White with a share or two of his receivers. Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and a revenge game for tight end Tyler Conklin returning back to Minnesota make a sneaky stack pivoting off the late games on the slate.

Vikings

Believe it or not, the Jets have been pretty tough on defense as of late. They’ve only allowed three touchdown passes in their last 10 games, so Cousins may not be a QB in play this week. Justin Jefferson is matchup-proof, so feel free to keep him in cash games If you can afford him. The rest of the Vikes are priced way too high for me to take a shot on against this Jets’ defense, even Dalvin Cook may not pay off his hefty pricetag on a New York front that has not given up a rushing TD since Week 7.

Cash: J. Jefferson

GPP: M. White, G. Wilson, E. Moore, T. Conklin

Commanders @ Giants (+2.5) (O/U 40)

Commanders

If you’re looking for a cheap play at running back, look no further. The rookie Brian Robinson may be in line for an increased workload at a discount If Antonio Gibson sits this one out. The New York Giants have allowed 150 yards with five total touchdowns to opposing running backs in their last two games. Robinson is a lock for cash if this situation plays out for Sunday.

Giants

The window is beginning to close for the Giants to make the playoffs, so it’s now or never. But with news breaking about Saquan Barkley possibly getting a lighter workload, New York will need to rely more on the passing game in order to win at home. The Commanders have cleaned it up a bit on defense, only allowing two passing touchdowns in their last three games. Regardless, the Giants’ will need to pass to win, and their skeleton crew of receivers is way too cheap. Darius Slayton and Richie James are set to have a big day as long as they can get healthy.

Cash: B. Robinson (Gibson out)

GPP: D. Slayton, R. James (if they can roll out)

Broncos @ Ravens (-8.5) (O/U 39.5)

Broncos

Free Courtland Sutton! He’s put up double-digit fantasy points at receiver in his last three games and the only game in town for DFS in Denver. The Ravens are a force at stopping the run, so Lat Murray will be a no go for me this week, not that he has been a stud averaging three yards per carry. Denver has been the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year as Russell Wilson and the coaching staff have set the franchise back a decade. It’s Sutton for GPP, no one is safe for cash in Bronco Country.

Ravens

Well, Lamar has not panned out from what we expected for this season either. If it wasn’t for his rushing upside, he’d be right up there cooking with Russ. But Gus Edwards seems to be back to 100% and against the tough Denver defense I’d rather pay down for Gus to fall in the endzone than Jackson’s low pass volume and high price tag. Denver has also been a cheat code for opposing defenses, pay up if you can for the Ravens’ DST in this low total contest.

Cash: Ravens DST

GPP: C. Sutton, L. Jackson, G. Edwards

Browns @ Texans (+7) (O/U 47.5)

Browns

Here it is, the game we’ve all been waiting for. Will Watson go off on his former team or will he show signs of rust, time will tell. The one player who is money in the bank is Nick Chubb, playing behind one of the best O-lines in football. Add that nugget up with one of the worst run defenses in the league and you have the formula to pay up here at running back. The only thing that bothers me is if Watson will hog the spotlight in this game and look to throw or run one into the endzone himself at the goal line. One thing for sure is Texan quarterback Kyle Allen was a turnover machine last week with two picks and two fumbles leading to scores for Miami. If you have confidence in the Browns D, pay up for them.

Texans

Some big late news broke on Friday that Texan receiver Brandin Cooks will not play on Sunday, elevating Nico Collins to the number one passer option for Houston and a no-brainer on DraftKings ($4,200). However, don’t forget about the rookie Dameon Pierce. He’s underwhelmed for the last two games, but he has the sixth-highest snap-share among running backs facing the Browns’ 30th-ranked run defense. I’m fine with using both in cash games.

Cash: N. Collins, N. Chubb, D. Pierce, Browns DST

GPP: D. Watson

Jaguars @ Lions (-1) (O/U 51)

Jaguars

T Law is coming off a career-best performance last week posting 321 passing yards with three touchdowns against Baltimore. It may be a double-down week to take Lawrence for a second week straight as he’ll be indoors to face the Lions. In what may look to be a track meet in Detroit, Christian Kirk may benefit more in the receiving department if he lines up in the slot opposite Joe Harris, who’s spilled out 15 receptions for 196 yards in his last two games.

Lions

At home, the Lions are at their best and will look the case against a soft Jaguar defense that has allowed 54 points in their last two games. We’ll see more of the usual from Goff to Amon Ra, with a sprinkle of Jamaal Williams at the goal line. Fellow receivers other than ASRB are priced way down to $4K and lower, so a nice GPP stack might be found in this game using D J Chark and Kalif Raymond

Cash: T. Lawrence, C. Kirk, A. St. Brown

GPP: J. Goff, J. Williams, K. Raymond, D. Chark

Packers @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 44.5)

Packers

Green Bay is on the outside looking into the playoffs for the season, so even in a great matchup for Aaron Rodgers, I would tread lightly. He’s pretty banged up with a thumb and now a rib injury, any shot taken during the game may force him to the sideline. So for me, it’s an Aaron Jones kind of day, especially at his DraftKings salary ($6,900). Even if Rodgers does get pulled, wideouts Christian Watson and Allen Lazard should still feast on the Bears’ bush league of defense if Jordan Love were to take over. Other than Jones, keep everybody else in tournaments.

Bears

Chicago has given their superstar athlete at quarterback the green light for Sunday, but how effective will he be? Justin Fields injured his non-throwing shoulder in Week 11, but it’s not his passing that he is known for. one bad hit after a scramble may also take him out of the game. His ceiling is through a roof but keep him in your tournament this weekend, who may see very low ownership on this slate.

Cash: A. Jones

GPP: A. Rodgers, J. Fields, A. Lazard, C. Watson

Steelers @ Falcons (-1) (O/U 42.5)

Steelers

The first quarterback taken in last year’s draft may have his best game this season on the road in Atlanta. Kenny Pickett can easily smash his salary four times its value playing indoors, using a little of his legs, and letting loose on the Falcon secondary that has been exploited all season. Pairing Pickett with Pickens and Friermuth makes a ton of sense here, but Diontae Johnson may be riskier because of his inability to build any chemistry with the rookie QB. The questionable tags have been all over the Steeler running backs, best to keep an eye on reports for tonight through tomorrow morning for a Najee Harris/Jalen Warren possible lone backfield.

Falcons

I just can’t put anybody in Atlanta in my lineups this week because of this Pittsburgh defense led by TJ Watt. Now that Kyle Pitts landed on IR, opposing defenses will continue to gravitate toward the rookie Drake London. I mean if I were to throw a dart here, it would be at Zaccheaus. Olamide ate off London’s plate last week while catching five of eight passes for 91 yards.

Cash: K. Pickett, G. Pickens, N. Harris/J. Warren (if one sits out)

GPP: P. Friermuth, O. Zaccheaus

Dolphins @ Niners (-4) (O/U 46.5)

Dolphins

Well, we all should know Miami’s blueprint by now in Week 13, if you’re just tuning in now it’s a three-headed monster with Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle. Besides Tyreek Hill, many Dolphins for this week may not be usable in DFS facing a tough San Fran defense on the road. So will it be a Jeff Wilson/Raheem Mostert revenge game? I wouldn’t bet on that either against the Niners’ front line. Ever hear of a guy by the name of Trent Sherfield? He’s basically on the field all the time alongside Tyreek and Waddle with over a 60% snap rate and could be worth a punt based on his price tag on DraftKings ($3,300). Thanks to Stix and the model for this gem, he may not be as sexy as the last Christian Watson call, but definitely makes sense against a Niner defense that will focus mainly on Waddle and Hill.

Niners

The Dolphins have also been decent at stopping the run (10th in DVOA) which could force Garoppolo to throw it more than he likes to. Miami’s cornerbacks and safeties have allowed over 60 receptions with five touchdowns over their last three games. Deebo may not be able to go Sunday so pay attention to injury reports, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will be a lock if he is ruled out.

Cash: B. Aiyuk, G. Kittle (if Deebo is ruled out even better), T. Hill

GPP: T. Sherfield, J Garoppolo

Seahawks @ Rams (+7) (O/U 41)

Seahawks

Seattle may get the same scenario game as Kansas City when they played LA…a wet noodle of an offense. Geno Smith and the Seahawks may not have any type of motivation to light up the scoreboard this weekend. We should see a lot of Kenneth Walker chewing up the clock and that Seattle defense causing some turnovers and three-and-outs.

Rams

The defending champs have waived the white flag to the NFL, pulling every big-name player and placing them on IR, most recently QB Matt Stafford. The Rams appear to want to get an idea of who else they have on their roster by giving them some playing time. Rookie running back Kyren Williams could be busy for the end of the regular season, and Seattle’s 153 rushing yards allowed per game has breakout written all over this game. Kyren is a sleeper and a smooth play as your RB2 in your GPP.

Cash: Seattle DST, K. Walker

GPP: K. Williams

Chiefs @ Bengals (+1.5) (O/U 52.5)

Chiefs

Let’s get ready to rumble, the Main Event will be at 4:25 EST in Ohio, when Kansas City looks to even the score from last year’s loss to the Bengals. Mahomes and Kelce all day, in 11 games they’ve connected on 73 receptions with 12 touchdowns, and Mahomes has thrown for 29…eh not bad. A smart but chalky stack this weekend, we need to get a little different here. Pacheco had a solid game against LA last week, finding the endzone for a cool 15 DK points, and rushing for 70 yards. Currently, he leads the backfield in snap percentage (51%), which may lead to another trip to the endzone in Cinci.

Bengals

The Chiefs are 24th in DVOA to quarterbacks, so they will let you throw on them. Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and maybe Ja’Marr Chase ( if he can suit up) would be in a pass-funnel offense at home, locking them in our lineups with the highest game total of the slate. Even running backs Joe Mixon (if he clears protocols) and Samaje Perine can feast off this zone defense which allows plenty of the dink-and-dunk.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, J. Burrow, T. Higgins, J. Mixon/S. Perine

GPP: I. Pacheco, J. Chase (if he plays)

Chargers @ Raiders (-1) (O/U 50.5)

Chargers

Justin Herbert crushed Arizona last week, and he’ll do it again to Vegas. The Raiders are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defending receivers and sending pressure to the quarterback. No Mike Williams again maybe? No problem, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and the almighty running back Austin Ekeler are enough firepower to take out a small army. All playable in DFS this weekend, I especially like Herbert for cash.

Raiders

As bad as Vegas’ defense is, we love them for fantasy, forcing the offense to play from behind. Derek Carr may have to throw it another 36 times this week in order to stay in the game. Davante Adams as their main pass catcher all season (71 REC/10 TD), will also be busy. But if running back Josh Jacobs has his way again in this game (229 RSH/74 REC/2 TDs), Herbert may not have as much time on the field. LA’s defense against the run is a dismal 29th in DVOA, so if Jacobs can convince the doctors he can play, he’s a lock once again.

Cash: J. Herbert, J. Jacobs (if he plays), D. Adams, A. Ekeler, K. Allen

GPP: D. Carr

Cash Core

J. Herbert,AJ Brown, Nico Collins, Josh Jacobs, T. Kelce

GPP Core

K. Pickett, N. Chubb, P. Friermuth, C. Kirk, T. Sherfield

Stacks

J. Herbert/K. Allen/J. Palmer/A. Ekeler, J. Burrow/J. Chase (if he plays)/T. Higgins, P. Mahomes/T. Kelce/I. Pacheco, T. Lawrence/C. Kirk/ Z. Jones, D. Carr/D. Adams/J. Jacobs(if he plays)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 13. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 13: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

brgrewe@gmail.com 2 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back to the Week 13 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

This slate is absolutely loaded with studs and multiple games with game totals over 50 points (game-stacks are certainly encouraged by me). I’ll probably keep out some star players just for the sake of showing you who I’m more focused on investing in, but this article is not meant to identify obvious studs you know are fantastic plays. I may mention them, but guys like Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey are always in play and you don’t need me to tell you they’re likely to have a nice fantasy output.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks:

Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The clear top-option in terms of both expected fantasy output and salary on both NFL DFS outlets. This game is going to be a fantastic watch and running out a sub-10% Mahomes is always something I would advise. He’s in play for both cash and GPP lineups.

Stack Options: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore (punt viable)
Run-Back Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins
Justin Herbert ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD) – Herbert is probably my favorite QB on this slate, and by a decent margin. I always love rolling with Justin Herbert as this Chargers’ offense almost refuses to run the football. The Chargers and the Chiefs are the only offenses on this slate that average over 40 pass attempts per game. Pair that with the Las Vegas Raiders grading dead-last in pass defense DVOA… yea. Cash game and GPP viable at sub-5% ownership? Sign me up.

*Keep an eye on their offensive line, it’s quite possible they’re down two linemen… not great if so.

Stack Options: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Gerald Everett
Run-Back Options: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Foster Moreau
Trevor Lawrence ($5,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – On DraftKings, Trevor Lawrence is going to be over 15% owned which makes him a perfect cash game quarterback against the Lions’ defense in a 51-point game total. I usually LOVE to play Trevor Lawrence in GPP lineups, but only when he’s 1-2% owned. The Lions blitz a lot and have continuously improved their pressure-rate to opposing quarterbacks and that is where Lawrence still struggles. This Detroit defense is not nearly as bad as the general public thinks it is, and Trevor Lawrence does not warrant 15% or higher ownership at any price. I’ll be fading in GPP but giving him a serious look for my cash game quarterback.

Stack Options: Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones (punt viable), Evan Engram (punt viable)
Run-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark
Kenny Pickett ($5,200 DK / $6,700 FD) – My second favorite QB on this slate (in terms of overall value and ownership) is Mr. Pickett, but mainly on DraftKings. At $5,200, I absolutely love what my lineups look like when I start with Kenny Pickett as a value “punt” quarterback. Having said that, I truly don’t look at Kenny Pickett as a punt quarterback. Pickett is quietly averaging over 30 rushing yards per game (against rather quality defenses) over the past four games and that alone is enough for me to sign off for his NFL DFS cash game floor.

On the GPP side of things, he’s certainly risky as hell on this slate that is loaded with high-upside, high-total game quarterbacks, but if Pickett and the Steelers can be a bit more efficient in the red-zone and we get a passing touchdown or two, Pickett may be in line for a ceiling game here in the dome against the Falcons and their 29th ranked pass defense (DVOA).

Stack Options: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson
Run-Back Options: Drake London (I wouldn’t make it a priority to have a run-back if I’m playing Pickett. Pickett is solely a salary relief play to give us more quality exposure to those higher total games)

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Running Backs:

Nick Chubb ($8,000 DK / $9,600 FD) – The best offensive line in the NFL against the worst run defense in the NFL. At his projected ownership of 5% on both sites, Chubb is better off as a GPP play with the expectation that this is absolutely a slate-breaking opportunity if you trust the DeShaun Watson debut.
Josh Jacobs ($7,900 DK / $9,500 FD) – Jacobs pretty much ruined my GPP upside last weekend with his late game heroics (I did not play him) despite battling a calf injury all week. He’s still apparently battling that calf injury, but if he’s ruled good to go, this is the best matchup Jacobs has had in quite some time. It’ll be hard to fade the hottest hand at the running back position. He’s a quality option in all formats.
Joe Mixon ($7,100 DK / $8,500 FD) – Assuming he clears the concussion protocol, Joe Mixon is likely a core-play for me in all formats of NFL DFS in Week 13. This Chiefs @ Bengals game has the highest game total on the slate and I want to ensure I get exposure to key contributors in that game. The Chiefs’ run defense is not nearly as bad as it has been in years past, but they absolutely bleed production to pass-catching running backs which is where Mixon has excelled this season. He’s one of the few “two and a half down” running backs left in the NFL. If he’s ruled out, Samaje Perine is a lock-button.
Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – Finally a sub-$7K price-tag in the best matchup he’s had in some time. AJ Dillon is slightly banged up with a quad injury and this is the nut-matchup against the Bears for Aaron Jones’ expected dual-threat utilization. He’s likely best left as a GPP play at sub-10% ownership.
Dameon Pierce ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – He’s been a complete bummer lately, but in NFL DFS cash games, he’s a chalky value in a great matchup against a bottom-three run defense. I don’t expect a whole lot, but if you need the savings, just take the ownership free-square in your cash games and you can consider him as a risky value in GPP lineups, but the matchup upside is there.
Isiah Pacheco ($5,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – I’m prioritizing getting key pieces to these higher total games with Kansas City @ Cincinnati being at the top of that list. Pachecho is nowhere near cash viable, but in tournaments, the multiple touchdown upside is what I’ll be shooting for when rostering Pachecho. With all of the ownership in that high $5K range going to Dameon Pierce, Pachecho makes for an excellent tournament pivot in a fantastic fantasy environment. If he can get a reception or two, that’s just icing on the cake.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Gus Edwards, Kyren Williams, Zonovan Knight (going to likely be a committee)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers:

Davante Adams ($8,700 DK / $8,600 FD) – Ridiculously cheap on FanDuel this week but an elite play on all formats against the Chargers secondary who simply cannot contain Davante Adams. At his price, there are certainly concerns of heavy double-coverage limiting his upside (as Adams went for 10 receptions and over 140 yards in their previous matchup), but I’ll roll out Davante Adams with confidence as he’s received 10 more targets over the past four games than any other pass catcher in the NFL.

AJ Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD) – I’m not a revenge game narrative guy so I’ll spare you reading the same statement about Brown’s time with the Titans that you’ll read literally everywhere. That means absolutely nothing to me. What matters to me is that this is a pass-funnel defense that runs a ton of Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense… that is where AJ Brown absolutely smashes. This is one of the best matchups on paper for any wide receiver in the NFL this week. I could not care less about NFL DFS writers talking about revenge, lol.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100 DK / $8,000 FD) – St. Brown will likely be the highest owned wide receiver on this slate and I have no issues with that against Jacksonville here. Roll him out in all formats with confidence.

Keenan Allen ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD) – Great price for a WR1 and a key exposure piece to what should be an absolute slugfest in Las Vegas. The Raiders’ have arguably the worst secondary in football. Josh Palmer is also a fine play at a cheaper price-tag.

Christian Kirk ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – Everyone will be chasing the value in Zay Jones and I’ll be going directly to Christian Kirk in this matchup against the Lions’ slot cornerback, Will Harris. The Lions blitz a ton and that should force Lawrence into getting the ball out of his hands early to his shorter ADOT pass-catchers, like Kirk, or this game will turn in favor of Detroit quickly.

Garrett Wilson ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Vikings’ secondary is in shambles and they are a pass-funnel defense. Wilson is going to be a top-three wide receiver in terms of ownership and like we stated last week, that is likely something we likely cannot fade in NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Nico Collins ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – Your cash game “free-square” value wide receiver now that Brandin Cooks is out. I don’t love it, but I get it.

Trent Sherfield ($3,300 DK / $5,100 FD) – HERE IT IS… the Discord Diamond. I’m 99.9% sure I’ve never written his name in my life, but here we are.

Disclaimer: he has 0% of the upside that Christian Watson had when I made that call of the year a few weeks back, but Trent Sherfield offers us a cheap piece of another higher total game in San Francisco (for one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL).

As mentioned in the Kenny Pickett write-up, I need some key value in my main lineup and that lineup indeed calls for a player in the low $3,000 range (DraftKings). When really looking at prospective value players and their matchups, I focused on the following “value punts”…

– DJ Chark
– Chase Claypool
– Olamide Zaccheaus (bring-back with my Pickett and Steeler pass-catcher stack, but we don’t want to invest in Atlanta’s passing offense)
– Skyy Moore (he was very close to taking Sherfield’s spot in this write-up… I do like him, but don’t love the snap counts and randomness of the Chiefs’ offense. It seems like when he does run routes, he gets targeted at a significant clip. Having said that, Juju is finally back at 100% health. I don’t trust Skyy Moore).
– Trent Sherfield

Trent Sherfield is the only one on that list who runs well over 25 routes per game. In addition, Sherfield’s expected target share takes a significant jump over his baseline when facing Cover-4 and Cover-3 zone coverage. Guess what coverages the 49ers run the most? Yea, Cover-4 and Cover-3 zone. It’s disgusting, but if the rest of your lineup is loaded with upper-tier studs, I am quite confident that this is a plus-matchup for Trent Sherfield against the 49ers defense that grades 31st in pass defense DVOA to their opposition’s tertiary pass-catchers. If he can find a way to sneak into the end-zone (doubtful), we may have a massive week on our hands with a legit 0% owned, Trent Sherfield. Pray for us!

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Maar Chase, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD)
Pat Freiermuth ($4,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings and likely my play for NFL DFS cash games if I cannot afford the obvious Travis Kelce. Atlanta will play a ton of Cover-3 zone coverage and that’s where Freiermuth should have a field day.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Foster Moreau, Chig Okonkwo (GPP punt only)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams:

Cleveland Browns
New York Giants
New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos
Houston Texans

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Josh Jacobs
Nico Collins
Pat Freiermuth
Samaje Perine

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 12: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all! It was awesome to see all the winning screenshots come in on Thursday… now if only the Hunter Henry second touchdown got to stand! Let’s move on to the Week 12 NFL DFS slate where it will be a rather condensed player pool for me (and so will the writeup unfortunately as I’m about to go on a 5-hour roadtrip to get back home in time for the Sunday livestream).

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Incredibly affordable on FanDuel and in an excellent spot against the 26th ranked defense in terms of DVOA. With offensive tackle, Ronnie Stanley out for this game, it’s probably best to leave Lamar Jackson to NFL DFS GPP lineups but you could do worse in cash if you want to pay up.
Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $7,900 FD) – My overall favorite quarterback play on the slate by a wide-margin. We pick on the Arizona defense damn near every week and we won’t stop here now that Keenan Allen is back and the only quality corner for Arizona, Byron Murphy, is OUT. Expect a ton of back-and-forth passing attacks for both offenses as Kyler Murray returns for the Cardinals. Justin Herbert is a core-play for me in cash game and GPP formats.
Geno Smith ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD) – On DraftKings, Geno Smith will likely garner the highest ownership on the slate. I’m fine with him as a cheaper option in cash games, but with all the value at the running-back position, you probably won’t need the salary relief at quarterback. If the weather report looks better in Seattle tomorrow morning, I’d have more interest here.

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr

NFL DFS Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($8,500 DK / $8,800 FD) – Decent price for a top-tier dual-threat option in a fantastic game environment.
Derrick Henry ($8,300 DK / $9,500 FD) – Derrick Henry under 10% owned, at home. There is absolutely nothing about this Cincinnati defense that should scare you away from Derrick Henry. If you can afford him, he’s a high-upside, slate-breaking option.
Kenneth Walker III ($6,900 DK / $8,400 FD) – I prefer the price on DraftKings here for Walker, but Las Vegas Raiders defense is dead last in overall defense DVOA. They are an absolute mess and this should lead to plenty of red-zone opportunities for Kenneth Walker.
James Conner ($6,600 DK / $7,000 FD) – A cheaper and less productive version of Austin Ekeler, but the dual-threat and red-zone ability for James Conner is hard to ignore in a game that I want to get as much exposure to as I can. The Chargers’ run defense grades 30th in DVOA.

The Value Running Backs

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,900 DK / $7,700 FD) – A little pricey on FanDuel but an absolute lock on DraftKings against this Houston run defense. We love double-digit, home-favorite running backs.
Antonio Gibson ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dirt cheap and likely sub-10% owned on all NFL DFS formats. Gibson is the best option in this Washington backfield and the pass-catching floor makes me very interested in Gibson against this Falcons’ 28th ranked defense (DVOA).
Rachaad White ($5,100 DK / $6,400 FD) – Similar to Jeff Wilson Jr., I’ll likely be locking in Rachaad White in all formats now that Leonard Fournette is ruled out and they have a matchup against the 32nd ranked run defense in the NFL (DVOA).

*Note: I’m out on a 30% owned Samaje Perine. Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans will both be active and have a role the public doesn’t seem to respect. I understand if you want to chase the points from last week, but I don’t play running backs against the Titans (especially when I don’t believe they have a 60% or higher snap-share coming).

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,600 DK / $9,000 FD) – My clear top-option at the wide receiver position this week. Simple as that.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 DK / $8,400 FD) – D-Hop continues to get a monster target share and Arizona will be without Rondale Moore and likely Greg Dortch. With or without Marquise Brown, Hopkins is going to have a very active day in the Arizona passing game like he always does against the Chargers wasteland of a secondary.
Tee Higgins ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings against a pass funnel defense in the Tennessee Titans and no Ja’Maar Chase.
DK Metcalf ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – The AETY Model absolutely loves this spot for DK Metcalf going up against the Raiders. This defense is a disaster and the AETY Model’s coverage scheme grades seem to believe this is a potential blow-up spot for DK Metcalf. Keep an eye on the forecast, but if it’s relatively clean we’re rolling out Metcalf with the utmost confidence.
Keenan Allen ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD) & Josh Palmer ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – The easy two stack options for Justin Herbert. Both of their prices are extremely too low for the floors and upside they possess in this matchup.
Treylon Burks ($4,200 DK / $5,900 FD) – A cheap WR1 in a nice matchup is something we’re always interested in for our NFL DFS lineups. The Bengals will run a lot of Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense and that is a matchup advantage for Treylon Burks.

Honorable Mention: Chris Olave, Christian Kirk, Tyler Boyd, Terry McLaurin, Drake London, Mack Hollins

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – Now that Andrews is back to 100% health, it’s all systems go this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars who grade dead last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends. Jacksonville will run a ton of Cover-2 zone defense with some Cover-1 and Cover-3 mixed in… all of which Mark Andrews exceeds his baseline numbers against (which are sexy to begin with). No need to get cute at the tight-end position when there is so much value at the running back position.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Foster Moreau, Hayden Hurst (love this spot for him without Ja’Maar Chase), Trey McBride (absolute punt, but viable in a LAC/AZ game stack)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Denver Broncos
New York Jets
Carolina Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs
Cleveland Browns

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Justin Herbert
Jeff Wilson Jr.
Rachaad White
DeAndre Hopkins
Mark Andrews

2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 12

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Well, I hope everybody enjoyed their holiday, welcome back to the grind! Thanksgiving has come and gone with a mini three-game slate that entertained us all over dinner amongst family and friends. Now that we’ve digested all that grub, it’s time to break down this Week 12 of NFL action. There are so many paths to cash this slate and I’m happy to bring them to you. As always, stay up to speed on our community Discord and use our projection model to fall back on players that you are unsure of. Now without further delay let’s get right into this 11-game Main Slate, Week 12 breakdown, it’s on!

Sunday Main Slate 11/27/22

Texans @ Dolphins (-13.5) (O/U 46.5)

Texans

Houston will be one of a few teams this week featuring a new quarterback in Week 12, starting Kyle Allen over Davis Mills. Allen is nothing spectacular, in 21 career starts in Carolina and Washington he’s thrown for 24 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, running in a few scores himself on the ground. The price is right for a GPP but by all means keep him out of cash games, even with his Miami 22nd DVOA to QB matchup. The only safe piece in Houston is Dameon Pierce, but I also like the Nico Collins price tag ($4,100 on DraftKings). The Texan double-digit spread sends the message that they will be playing from behind for most of the game, forcing Nico into lineups this weekend.

Dolphins

The big three in Miami of Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle is a shoo-in this week to ball out against the 1-8-1 Texans, but will they be sitting out in the second half because of them being up by three touchdowns? Tua is probably the safest of the three since we know he will be in command of the scoring. There will be some chalk in this game though since news broke recently of running back Raheem Mostert being listed as doubtful to play. Fellow back Jeff Wilson Jr. will inherit the lion’s share of carries against the worst-ranked run defense in the league.

Cash: T. Tagovailoa, J. Wilson Jr.

GPP: K. Allen, N. Collins

Ravens @ Jaguars (+4) (O/U 43.5)

Ravens

It looks like Gus Edwards will finally return to the field after logging two full practices this week, giving Baltimore much-needed depth at running back. He’s a sneaky, under-the-radar play at RB who may see all the goal-line work in Jacksonville. Lamar Jackson and tight end Mark Andrews returning off a bye week are also in play, but much safer for cash games.

Jaguars

The revamped Raven defense with the addition of Roquan Smith held Carolina to only three points in Week 10, so I’m weary of starting too many players in Jacksonville. But the AETY Model does like tight end Evan Engram, so consider him as a decent-size punt (3.3X value) for only $3,200 on DraftKings.

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: G. Edwards, E. Engram, Ravens DST

Bears @ Jets (-4.5) (O/U 39.5)

Bears

The Bears enter the tri-state area with a questionable tag for quarterback Justin Fields, who suffered a shoulder injury last week. If he sits out, It will be Trevor Siemian season facing a tough Jets defense that already has 32 sacks on the year… I’ll pass on both this week. Another heavy dose of David Montgomery may be in store for Chicago’s game plan, but I would only recommend him in tournaments this week because of the matchup.

Jets

Zach Wilson is in timeout for Week 12 after an embarrassing loss to New England, handing Mike White the keys to the Jets’ offense. In four games, and three starts last season, White threw for 953 yards, five touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Four of those picks were against a top-ranked Buffalo defense in 2021, which led him back to the bench and I don’t put that against him. White will sling it and against this Bears’ beatable secondary he could easily pay off his very low salary ($4,900 on DraftKings). Keep him in tournaments, but the Jets’ D looks great against Siemian (if he starts) on the road.

Cash: Jets DST (Siemian plays)

GPP: M. White, D. Montgomery

Falcons @ Commanders (-4) (O/U 42)

Falcons

30% of the Atlanta target share went up for grabs when tight end Kyle Pitts landed on IR this week, putting Drake London in absolute control of the Falcon receiving core. The rookie first-round pick is in a smash spot as not only the featured receiver in Atlanta but a matchup with Kendall Fuller/Ben St.-Juste, who has been toasted all season. Quarterback Marcus Mariota, who may also be a sleeper at his position, will be looking for jersey number 5 (London) all afternoon.

Commanders

The same scenario for the Commanders can be said for Atlanta, as they face a bottom three DVOA pass defense in the league. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has only had eyes for wideout Terry McLaurin in his return as a starter, targeting him 43 times in just five games. T-MC continues to be underpriced on DraftKings ($5,800) and should be considered a lock at receiver, but keep his QB Heinicke in tournaments.

*** Curtis Samuel and Johan Dotson can also get some love too in this contest

Cash: D. London, T. McLaurin

GPP: M. Mariota, T. Heinicke, C. Samuel, J. Dotson

Bengals @ Titans (+1.5) (O/U 42.5)

Bengals

Cincinnati will be without stud running back Joe Mixon due to concussion protocols, so is it Samaje Perine season again? Not so fast. He did score three touchdowns last week, but he’ll be splitting carries with Chris Evans against the number two rushing defense…buyer beware. It will be a Joe Burrow game for sure, facing a secondary ranked 30th in the NFL. If he gets his boy Ja’Marr Chase back, the field will be spread out, even more, making another Bengals’ stack enticing again this week. Higgins, Boyd, and tight end Hurst are all viable plays here too.

Titans

The Titans and Derrick Henry will be out for revenge after getting the boot from the Bengals in the 2021 AFC Wild Card game. Tennessee will as usual utilize their franchise battering ram at running back to keep Burrow off the field and chew time off the clock. If in fact, Tannehill does decide to air it out, rookie Treylon Burks has seen 14 targets in his last two games, cashing in for 10 of them. For only $4,200 on DraftKings, he makes a nice discount on a run-back play in a GPP stack of this game.

Cash: J. Burrow, D. Henry, T. Higgins (if Chase sits out)

GPP: J. Chase, T. Boyd, H. Hurst, T. Burks

Broncos @ Panthers (+2) (O/U 36)

Broncos

The Broncos finally waived running back Melvin Gordon leaving Latavius Murray as the only game in town at the position. He’s not sexy but will get a ton of volume and all the goal line work, but making him touchdown reliant averaging only three yards per carry this year. With all the chalk at running back this weekend, Murray may float under the radar against a Panther 26th DVOA to opposing running backs. Watch the weather in Carolina too, it could get uglier not just because Sam Darnold is starting at quarterback, but they may see some rain. Take that Bronco defense if you can.

Panthers

The Panthers are one piece away from being a solid team in the league, and without a quarterback, you can see how bad it has been. Sam Darnold will be getting the call to start, and Carolina is drawing at straws, desperately seeking an answer to this losing season. Possible rain, Surtain, and Darnold are telling us to stay clear this weekend with any Panthers.

Cash: Bronco DST

GPP: L. Murray

Bucs @ Browns (+3.5) (O/U 43)

Bucs

Another stadium that may be affected by wind and rain in Cleveland could put a damper on a Bucs offense that may be looking to throw a lot this weekend. Starting running back Leonard Fournette is listed as doubtful, giving a major opportunity to rookie Rachaad White to lead the backfield against the second-worst rushing defense. But when you’re playing with Brady, he’ll get you the ball rain, sleet, or shine. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are always safe when healthy for DFS.

Browns

Jacoby Brissett hammered the Bills’ defense for 29 fantasy points last week, maybe we should ride the hot hand against the Bucs? Sure why not? He’s at home, his receivers are healthy, and he has one of the best running backs in football Nick Chubb. Cleveland’s defense has been a train wreck recently, Brissett will again be playing from behind and forcing his arm to air it out in what could be his last game this year. (Watson returns in Week 13). Keep Cleveland in your tournaments.

Cash: R. White, C. Godwin, M. Evans

GPP: J. Brissett, D. Njoku, N. Chubb, A. Cooper, D. Peoples-Jones

Raiders @ Seahawks (-3.5) (O/U 47.5)

Raiders

Vegas having one of the worst secondaries in the league forces Derek Carr and Davonte Adams to play catch all afternoon. Now with running back Josh Jacobs popping up on the injury report with a calf, Davonte may have even more of a role carved out for him in the offense. Seattle’s been no stranger to giving up big plays either, ranking 21st in DVOA to quarterbacks. Carr fed Adams 13 targets, catching 7 for 141 yards and two touchdowns in Denver, expect more of the same in Seattle. Adams for cash games, and Carr for GPPs.

Seahawks

The Raiders’ young and inexperienced secondary has been the league’s punching bag all season. What an opponent to have come off a bye week for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. At a measly $6,000 on DraftKings, Smith can hit value by halftime with receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. And let’s not forget about the rookie phenom Kenneth Walker III, who may be finishing off plenty of drives into the endzone this weekend. The volume and game flow will favor Walker and the Seahawks if they end up with a sizeable lead in the second half.

Cash: G. Smith, D. Adams, D. Metcalf, K. Walker, T. Lockett

GPP: D. Carr

Chargers @ Cardinals (+4.5) (O/U 47.5)

Chargers

This matchup for Justin Herbert has a breakout written all over it against Arizona. One game removed from a lingering hamstring, Herbert’s number one Keenan Allen will be running circles around Marco Wilson and the Cardinal secondary, which will be without their top corner Byron Murphy Jr. Fellow Chargers’ wideout Mike Williams is set to miss another game, enter Josh Palmer. The second-year receiver could also see a big afternoon, like last week’s 8-106-2 stat line. There’s always Austin Ekeler in play, we can’t overlook LA’s top running back when he’s healthy, he’s a lock in all cash games.

Cardinals

Arizona is beat up on defense as we just spoke on, but they are getting back quarterback Kyler Murray. This is great news for DeAndre Hopkins, who gets peppered on a weekly basis by Murray. But consider James Connor this week at running back away from the chalk. He owns the backfield against one of the worst run defenses (30th in DVOA) in the league, if the game does get into a shoot-out, Connor may be a sneaky player at running back. Then there’s also Trey McBride taking over for Zach Ertz at tight end. The rookie saw a near 80% snap share in his debut as a starter, so he’s well worth a thought as a punt this weekend at tight end.

Cash: J. Herbert, K. Allen, D. Hopkins, A. Ekeler

GPP: J. Connor, J. Palmer, K. Murray, T. McBride

Saints @ Niners (-9.5) (O/U 43)

Saints

New Orleans is in limbo as far as their injury report on the defensive side of the ball, as this could determine a lot of what kind of action may be on the field come Sunday afternoon. On offense, it’s always Chris Olave at receiver, who is a magnet for the football in a Saints’ uniform. At running back, Alvin Kamara is a hard fade against the second-best run defense of San Fransisco. It’s Olave or bust in New Orleans, who’s still fairly priced on DraftKings ($6,600). Although tight end Juwan Johnson is quietly making some noise as a red zone threat, with three touchdowns in his last three games, take a shot on him in a tournament.

Niners

Along with the news we are still waiting for in New Orleans, receiver Deebo Samuel also appeared on the injury report yesterday. So teammates Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will get a huge uptick in looks from Jimmy Garoppolo if he can’t suit up. Running back Christian McCaffrey is an auto start if you can pay up, as well as the top-five defense of the Niners. You’ll need a piece of San Fran in your lineup if Marshon Lattimore and Cam Jordan are in street clothes this Sunday.

Cash: C. McCaffrey, B. Aiyuk/G. Kittle (if Deebo sits out) C. Olave

GPP: J. Garoppolo, Niner DST, J. Johnson

Rams @ Chiefs (-14.5) (O/U 44)

Rams

When you thought it could not get any worse for the defending champs, out goes Matt Stafford with another concussion. Coach Sean McVay will roll the dice with third-stringer Bryce Perkins at quarterback, who may give the Rams a boost with the use of his legs under center. Young and inexperienced QBs tend to favor their safety valve at running back and tight end, so Bryce may lean on Kyren Williams and Tyler Higbee could be busy this weekend. Tournaments only guys, keep it safe.

Chiefs

Blood will be in the water at Arrowhead Stadium, as the Chiefs’ defense will put pressure on a rookie quarterback with one of the worst O-lines in the league. By now there’s no need to mention Mahomes and Kelce as they are always safe for cash, but given the game flow, they may be sitting out in the second half. My move would be to aim low for savings in the KC high-powered offense as a huge favorite. Isiah Pacheco and Skyy Moore could see some extra playing time if Kansas City is up big.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, Chiefs DST

GPP: B. Perkins, T. Higbee, K. Williams, I. Pacheco, S. Moore

Cash Core

J. Herbert, K. Allen, DK Metcalf, R. White, T. Kelce

GPP Core

G. Smith, J. Palmer, J. Connor, S. Moore, E. Engram

Stacks

J. Herbert/K. Allen/J. Palmer/A. Ekeler, J. Burrow/J. Chase (if he plays)/T. Higgins, G. Smith/ DK Metcalf/ T. Lockett/K. Walker III

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 12. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 12: StixPicks Thanksgiving Day Edition

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Happy Thanksgiving to all! On behalf of Win Daily, I just want to thank you all for the support, week-in and week-out. Let’s get right to it and enjoy a three game, Thanksgiving NFL DFS slate! As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for the NFL DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Thanksgiving Day Main Slate (strictly tournament plays for this article). Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,000 DK / $9,500 FD) – Clearly the top quarterback on the slate by a wide-margin. The Bills have a 32-point implied team total… the next closest team is the Cowboys with a 27-point implied team total. The Lions defense is a mess and will be without Jeff Okudah, so we know the passing upside is there (the elbow injury still concerns me, Josh Allen hasn’t looked right) and the Lions’ tendency to play a lot of man-coverage should give Allen a significant rushing floor no one else has on this slate. He is the only pay-up option, but likely worth it. Only downside(s) here is the elbow injury and the projected blowout gamescript as the Bills are a 10-point favorite.
Dak Prescott ($6,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – Dak Prescott grades out as the AETY Model’s number one value at the quarterback position and for good reason. The New York Giants’ defense is arguably in worse shape than the Lions, as they’re riddled with injuries and will be without their top-two cover-cornerbacks in Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreau. The value on both DraftKings and FanDuel in NFL DFS lineups is significant as I really like my overall builds with Prescott over those lineups with Josh Allen. Like Allen, there is a real threat this game gets completely out of hand (like we saw last week) and Prescott and this passing attack are eased out of the game.

*Note: I will not be playing any other quarterback on this slate. Maybe Mac Jones or Jared Goff in MME, but I am taking a firm stand on the top-two options on this three game slate. I will NOT be getting cute with pay-downs and would advise you to do the same.

NFL DFS Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400 DK / $7,200 FD) – On DraftKings, Rhamondre Stevenson will be my first click at the running back position. The pass catching floor is second-to-no running back on this slate… that is too valuable to pass up. The Vikings’ defense is likely to be the highest owned and I’ll use the leverage Stevenson provides and completely fade that Minnesota defense spot. I’ll just pair Stevenson with the Patriots’ defense.

For those worried about Damien Harris, Stevenson still had a 78% snap share last week. The Patriots’ running back job is Stevenson’s to lose and we’ll continue to see a lot of routes ran as the Vikings’ run a ton of Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defense (advantage Stevenson).
Devin Singletary ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD) – Playing into the narrative of the Bills blowing out the Lions and leaving Devin Singletary and James Cook with a solid workload. At their prices, they’re fine plays on this three game slate. More importantly, Devin Singletary has seen his red-zone rushing attempt usage absolutely skyrocket to six red-zone rushing attempts per game since Allen hurt his elbow in Week 10 against the Jets (1.16 red-zone rushing attempts per game prior to the injury).

The Other Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: a hefty price, but the most talented running back on the slate.
Dalvin Cook: would prefer him over Barkley, but I can’t really afford Dalvin in my single entry builds and don’t really think he’s worth it with top run-blocker, Christian Darrisaw OUT with a concussion.
Tony Pollard: He’s on fire and affordable. I 100% get it if you want to keep riding him, but Ezekiel Elliott taking goal-line snaps leaves me with a headache and reliant on Pollard big plays to hit value.
Jamaal Williams: Extremely touchdown reliant and can get scripted out of this game in a hurry.
D’Andre Swift: Justin Jackson is out-snapping him recently… WTF? If there’s any game to get Swift heavily utilized in the passing game, it’s this one.
Damien Harris: You’re praying for a touchdown if you roster him.
James Cook: Fine play at the price if you think Buffalo runs away with this one. We should see plenty of usage for the rookie coming on late!

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,000 DK / $9,300 FD) – My clear-cut, top wide receiver on this slate. No Jeff Okudah should lead to a very active first half for Stefon Diggs as no one can contain him on this Detroit secondary. Let’s hope Detroit can keep it close enough to where Diggs is active for four quarters!
CeeDee Lamb ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD) – Excellent comeback spot for CeeDee Lamb at home against Giants’ slot corner Darnay Holmes (the only healthy corner for the Giants… and he’s bad). Same situation as Diggs in regards to blowout potential.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD) – Great price on DraftKings for the most targeted wide receiver on the slate. As mentioned, it’s likely the Bills run away with this game leaving St. Brown in a favorable, pass-heavy gamescript.
Gabe Davis ($5,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings in the same sexy matchup as Stefon Diggs. Although the AETY Model loves the coverage scheme for Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis should have a field day when the Lions line up in Cover-3 zone defense.
Michael Gallup ($4,900 DK / $5,700 FD) – Michael Gallup is probably the highest-upside NFL DFS GPP wide receiver on this slate in terms of price and ownership. With Fabian Moreau and Adoree Jackson OUT, Gallup is going to have plenty of opportunities against the Giants’ Cover-1 man defense. I absolutely love his receiving prop over 38.5 yards receiving yards and will sprinkle a bit on an Anytime Touchdown at +235.

The Other Wide Receivers:

Justin Jefferson – The Patriots have done a fantastic job limiting the damage to opposing top wideouts. That shouldn’t be news to anyone as that’s usually been Belichick’s main objective, but the talent of Justin Jefferson is hard to ignore, especially after a stinker last week in Dallas. I’m taking the stand on Stefon Diggs this week, but 100% understand if you want Jefferson as he’s one of the only top receivers on this slate without blowout gamescript potential.
Jakobi Meyers – A cheap WR1 who should exceed expectations against the Vikings’ Cover-3 zone defense and blitz packages. Nothing sexy here, but on a three game slate, not everything will be.
Adam Thielen – Should be in a great spot against the Patriots’ man-coverage and heavy focus on Justin Jefferson, but Thielen leaves much to be desired since Hockenson joined the team. He’s worth the dice-roll on a few lineups, I suppose.
Kalif Raymond – He’s going to be a chalky option as he’s cheap exposure to a positive gamescript (assuming Buffalo gets ahead early). You guys can have a chalk Kalif Raymond, I’m out! Same thing can be said for Darius Slayton.
Richie James Jr. – Probably the only “punt-play” I somewhat can appreciate. The slot receiver in the Giants’ offense has excelled against Cover-1, Cover-2, and blitz heavy defenses (what the Cowboys will do). As long as he’s healthy, he’s probably my favorite pay-down punt now that Wan’Dale Robinson’s season is over.

**Note: I will likely not be punting at the wide receiver position. I am taking a firm stand on playing top-tier wide receiver options on this three game slate. I will NOT be getting cute with pay-downs as it looks like the field will 100% be rostering a punt-wide receiver or two. You can get a strong advantage (on-paper) by simply not doing that. The cards will unfold how they unfold and maybe a punt-play wideout is the optimal route, but I will not be doing so.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

TJ Hockenson ($5,000 DK / $6,300 FD) – The top option at the tight-end position by a wide margin. With all of the coverage likely to be focused on Jefferson, Hockenson (and Thielen) should be in for a nice output. The Patriots will blitz a good amount and the injury to Darrisaw should make Cousins rely on his lower ADOT pass-catchers.
Dalton Schultz ($3,800 DK / $5,800 FD) – Damn-near lock-button play for me at that price on DraftKings. I look at Schultz as a mid-tier WR2 on most slates… now this is a three-game slate… you do the math. If you equate the Vegas player props at respectable sportsbooks, he grades out as the third overall value on this slate. The AETY Model has him as the number one overall value on this slate.
Dawson Knox ($3,500 DK / $5,500 FD) – Solid cheap option though I prefer Schultz on both sites. The coverage scheme for Detroit seems to push up Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Devin Singletary in the AETY Model, but Knox is a fine option.
Hunter Henry ($3,100 DK / $4,900 FD) – I hate this spot, but my builds seem to call for someone in this price-range and I already made my statement on punt wide receivers. Minnesota’s zone defense does give the AETY Model reason to believe this is a solid spot for the Patriots’ tight-end (it may very well be Jonnu Smith… that’s why I hate the spot). Henry still has a significant advantage in terms of snap-counts and routes ran per game, but Jonnu Smith can certainly be the guy who scores a touchdown. That is what we’re hoping for down here in the dumpster… a touchdown.

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

New England Patriots – Christian Darrisaw being out is going to be a problem for the Vikings. Matthew Judon should have a field day.
Dallas Cowboys – This defense is on another planet right now and the matchup is lovely against the Giants.
Buffalo Bills – Likely very low-owned against Jared Goff…

NFL DFS GPP Core (DraftKings)

Unfortunately, we will not be doing a Thanksgiving livestream as most of us will be spending time with our families and likely have too many beers early and often, lol! Here’s my NFL DFS GPP core for the Thanksgiving slate:

Rhamondre Stevenson
Stefon Diggs
Amon-Ra St. Brown
CeeDee Lamb

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 11

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Week Ten is in the books, and what a slate that was! We struck DFS gold with Watson ($3,700 DraftKings) thanks to our AETY model, and there are plenty more where that came from here in Week 11! I saw plenty of winning lines in our Discord this weekend, let’s keep the NFL chat room that way. On to the 11-game main slate, in this article, we’re going to give you bits and pieces for your DraftKings or FanDuel DFS lineup builds, take this insight and use it to your advantage! Time to break it down…here we go!

Sunday Main Slate 11/20/22

Browns @ Bills (-8) (O/U 41.5)

Browns

Well, no Blizzard Bowl this weekend in Buffalo, as the game has been moved to Detroit in the dome. The Browns will continue to utilize one of the best O-lines in the NFL, and behind it will be Nick Chubb. He’s had a nose for the endzone, currently leading all NFL running backs with 11 touchdowns. Buffalo’s secondary has been stingy all season, look for Cleveland to focus on the ground game and play keep away from Josh Allen in this one.

Bills

Josh Allen and the Bills catch a huge break from Old Man Winter and get a trip to Detroit for an indoor battle with Cleveland. Start up your Buffalo players on this slate, this Browns’ defense has been giving up boatloads of yardage, mainly against the run. The 31st DVOA to opposing running backs is good news for Devin Singletary as well as the Bills’ premier rusher quarterback Josh Allen.

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, N. Chubb

GPP: D. Singletary, G. Davis

Lions @ Giants (-3) (O/U 45)

Lions

We’re not a fan of Jared Goff on the road, and facing a ferocious Giants’ pass rush hopefully, he can get rid of the ball quickly. New York should be run up the gut in order to move the football, who allows 133 yards per game on the season. We could see a bounce back in D’Andre Swift this week if he can get healthy, and Amon-Ra St. Brown being the only viable passing option he is a must-start for Detroit.

Giants

Probably the best matchup in line for the Giants’ top weapon at running back Saquon Barkley. He is single-handedly carrying the offense for the 7-2 G-Men, against the worst-ranked rushing defense, he will feast. New York also likes to get after the quarterback and force turnovers, maybe the road Jared Goff shows up at Met Life Stadium for some Giants DST fantasy points.

Cash: S. Barkley, A. St. Brown

GPP: D. Swift, Giants DST

Eagles @ Colts (+7) (O/U 44)

Eagles

The undefeated streak is over, and Hurts will look to re-establish himself in the win column. It will be a tough task on the road, but he gets the job done in fantasy regardless of the opponent. Hurts has been the best pound-for-pound dual-threat quarterback all season racking up 21 total touchdowns and a 106 QB rating. Always a safe play in DFS. The Eagles will also be without stud tight end Dallas Goedert for some time due to a shoulder injury, but receivers A J Brown and Devonta Smith will pick up the slack. A sneaky tournament punt at tight end would be backup Jack Stoll, who saw 40-57% of snaps from Weeks 4-8 while Goedert was healthy. Stoll will be a high-risk, high reward if he cashes one inside the pay dirt.

Colts

Indy looked great last week going back to their bread and butter on offense. Veteran Matt Ryan and running back Jonathon Taylor will go for two in a row at home. Philadelphia has had a shutdown secondary up until we saw cornerback Avonte Maddox go down Monday night. Paris Campbell will see plenty of rookie Josiah Scott on Sunday, we should see Ryan hook up with his new buddy Paris for another double-digit fantasy day. The price is still way too cheap for Campbell on DraftKings ($4,300).

Cash: J. Hurts, P. Campbell

GPP: J. Taylor

Jets @ Patriots (-3.5) (O/U 38)

Jets

Can the Jets finally get over the hump and take out Belichick and the Pats? They’ve had two weeks coming off a bye to figure out a game plan. With a 6-3 record, New York will need to work with what’s got them to this point, run the ball and play great defense. Meanwhile quarterback Zach Wilson has made a connection with first-round pick Garret Wilson. In their last two games, the Wilsons have linked up for 14 receptions and 207 yards, making Garret a steal at ($4,900) on DraftKings.

Patriots

The Pats’ quarterback situation may still be a puzzle this week, it all depends on who may have the hot hand, or who screws up. As it can always be a mystery with this offense, what has always been solid has been their defense. Jets’ quarterback Zach Wilson is no stranger to coughing up the football, and on the road, if he decides to play hero ball, Zach may make a few more mistakes.

Cash: Pats DST

GPP: G. Wilson, Jets DST

Panthers @ Ravens (-13) (O/U 41)

Panthers

The Panthers come into Baltimore with Baker Mayfield back under center. This spells potential disaster for fantasy across the board since Baker hasn’t started a game since Week 5. So don’t get cute this weekend by drafting any Carolina players facing this new and improved Baltimore defense. Let’s wait and see what happens, play it, safe guys.

Ravens

Lamar Jackson off a bye with rested legs, yup sign me up against this 26th DVOA Carolina rushing defense. And with a less than 100% Mark Andrews, the Ravens may choose to lean even more on the run, so Gus Edwards (if he plays) and Kenyon Drake are also roster-able this weekend. Don’t forget who is quarterbacking for Carolina too, so we may see Roquan Smith get more comfortable with his new team by rattling the cage of Baker Mayfield. Ravens DST is in play if you can pay up.

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews (if healthy), Ravens DST

GPP: G. Edwards (if healthy), K. Drake

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5) (O/U 49)

Bears

Quarterback Justin Fields has been white hot, scrambling for 365 yards and rushing for three touchdowns in his last two games. He’s a lock again facing Atlanta in another dome game that could lead to another track meet for Fields. He’ll be chalky with tight end Cole Kmet who’s caught five touchdowns in his last three games. so if you want to mix it up in your lines go after the other Chicago pieces. David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool are all playable at a discounted price against the worst-ranked passing DVOA in the NFL.

Falcons

This game totally has shoot-out potential, for when Chicago starts lighting up the scoreboard Atlanta and Marcus Mariota can absolutely keep up the pace with the Bears. Since Chicago unloaded their two best defenders in trade deals, they’ve allowed 115 points in their last three games. Although he is a risky play this week of a possible benching, Mariota has a ton of upside in this matchup. Kyle Pitts and Drake London will also be key benefactors if this game plays out. The falcons in DFS this week will allow you to pick up your high-end running backs (Saquon) and receivers (Jefferson).

Cash: J. Fields, K. Pitts

GPP: D. Montgomery, M. Mariota, D. London

Rams @ Saints (+1.5) (O/U 40)

Rams

Now that Cooper Kupp has been put on IR, this Rams offense could be way too unpredictable. Who knows where Stafford will look to use as his security blanket with Kupp on the bench? The targets are up for grabs in LA, but if I were looking to guess I would go cheap. The 6’4″ receiver Ben Skowronek is a nice value at ($3,900 DraftKings), but spending up for the de facto alpha Allen Robinson ($5,600 DraftKings) would not break the bank for a top-of-the-depth chart wideout. The matchup is also still great in New Orleans as long as corner Marshon Lattimore is still on the sidelines.

Saints

The rookie Chris Olave has taken full ownership of the receiving duties for the Saints well on his way to a 1,000–yard season. No one is in his way of seeing all the volume, as veteran Jarvis Landry is still getting eased back into action, and Michael Thomas has been ruled out for the season. But what really excites me in this game is the Saints’ defense. Stafford has already been a pick machine, but now with the loss of Kupp and his weak offensive line getting downgraded with more injuries, the Saints‘ DST could be a top play this week.

Cash: C. Olave, NO DST

GPP: A. Robinson, B. Skowronek

Commanders @ Texans (+3.5) (O/U 41)

Commanders

Taylor Heinicke may still be on cloud nine after pulling off that road upset against the undefeated Eagles. The Commanders played a textbook game of keep away from Jalen Hurts, running it down their throats with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. They draw a very favorable matchup on a Texan defense that allows over 180 rushing yards per game. Target funnel “Scary” Terry McLaurin also will catch a break in Houston lining up across rookie Derek Stingley, who will be torched on Sunday. Get any of them in your builds for Week 11, way underpriced, especially on DraftKings!

Update: Derek Stingley is out.

Texans

Stud rookie running back Dameon Pierce gets the most usage for the Texans on offense and is automatic at this point. But Washington is also guilty of having its own issues at cornerback with St. Juste and Fuller. Nico Collins ($4,100 DraftKings) could be in line for a huge day (10 targets in Week 10) facing a Commander secondary that ranks 25th against opposing receivers.

Cash: T. McLaurin, B. Robinson, A. Gibson

GPP: N. Collins, D. Pierce

Raiders @ Broncos (-3) (O/U 41)

Raiders

Vegas with a record of 2-7 and losing their fourth straight game are on the brink of a total meltdown. But don’t blame Davonte Adams for their struggles, he’s scored over 30 fantasy points in his last two games. He has fully taken over for the Raiders’ offense along with running back Josh Jacobs, who may have a sneaky smash spot in Denver. The Broncos gave up 144 yards on the ground to Jacobs in their first meeting. Not that any improvements have been made, they were gashed two weeks ago by Erienne for 156 yards. Pick your poison in Vegas.

Broncos

Denver on the other hand is down to one healthy receiver in Courtland Sutton, Let’s Ride…Vegas’ secondary has been a laughingstock of the league and is unable to cover anyone (27th in receiver DVOA) who has been rolled out onto the field this season. Sutton and tight end Greg Dulcich should receive all the passing volume if the injuries to Jeudy, Hamler, and Hinton keep them sidelined.

Cash: C. Sutton, D. Adams

GPP: J. Jacobs, G. Dulcich

Cowboys @ Vikings (+1.5) (O/U 47.5)

Cowboys

America’s Team suffered a tough road loss in Green Bay, allowing them to come back from a 17–point deficit to victory. Put it on the Cowboys’ defense though, Dak has looked back to his normal self after his recent injury, paving the way for receiver Cee Dee Lamb and tight end Dalton Schultz to be fantasy relevant again. The Vikes are 8-1, but don’t let their record fool you as they are ranked 29th against the pass. Plenty of fireworks indoors in Minnesota, we will need to attack here for sure in DFS.

Vikings

Justin Jefferson is a god. That catch in Buffalo went down as one of the best in a long time. If you have the space, put him in. If you want to pay down for some Vikings we have other options though. Tight end TJ Hockenson has seen a ton of volume since the trade, seeing 19 total targets. Dalvin Cook, remember him? He’s in another smash spot against Dallas who’s been slammed in their last two games for over 300 rushing yards.

Cash: J. Jefferson, C. Lamb, D. Cook, T. Hockenson

GPP: D. Prescott

Bengals @ Steelers (+4) (O/U 41)

Bengals

Coming off a bye week Burrow and the gang will want to get some payback from their embarrassing home-opening loss in Week One. But with TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick back on defense, it could be a little risky paying up for the Bengals this week. Keep them out of your cash builds and take shots in tournaments only.

Steelers

If you’re looking for a discount defense this week ($2,300 DraftKings), look no further. The sites still have not yet adjusted to the fact that Pittsburgh’s defense is much healthier with Watt and Fitzpatrick back. Another bargain with the Steelers is rookie receiver, George Pickens. He gets a rookie Bengal corner Cam Taylor-Britt…which should set him up to ball out even more, as he is already Pickett’s number-one target.

Cash: Pittsburgh DST, G. Pickens

GPP: J. Burrow

Cash Core 4

J. Fields, B.Robinson/A. Gibson, C. Lamb, K. Pitts

GPP Core 4

M. Mariota, D. Cook, D. Schultz, D. Mooney

Stacks

J. Allen/S. Diggs, J. Fields/ C. Kmet/D. Mooney/C. Claypool, M. Mariota/D. London/K. Pitts

D. Prescott/C. Lamb/T. Hockenson/D. Schultz/J. Jefferson/D. Cook

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 11. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

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Week 11 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 2 years ago

written by Justin Elick

I really hope that you had some Cole Kmet exposure last week. His ownership will continue to rise with the meteoric ascension of Justin Fields, and that is just fine. Last week was a great one for us in the Tight End article. Dalton Schultz had his way with Green Bay (6-54-1) and Tyler Higbee was the only player on the Rams who wasn’t embarrassing (8-73). Greg Dulcich was a dud, but the entire Broncos roster is a dud now. Let’s keep it rolling for Week 11!

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 11 on FanDuel and DraftKings! Let’s continue to finish strong this season!

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

This week is a frustrating one. George Kittle is in a SMASH spot…not on the main slate. Travis Kelce and Gerald Everett? Not on main slate. Regardless, we move on as usual.

The return of Dak Prescott has vaulted Schultz back into the upper echelon of Tight Ends. Schultz has hauled in 17 of 20 targets (187 yards and a score) over three weeks since “Return of the Dak”. Side note, “Return of the Mack” is the most underrated song of the 90s. Argue with your momma.

Regardless, Schultz has a cement role in a good offense in Dallas, and is in a good spot again. The Vikings are 21st in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing Tight Ends. Schultz will be a busy man in what may just be the best game of the week.

TJ Hockenson, Vikings ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

Sure, Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers was HUGE. I’d argue that the Vikings’ addition of Hockenson was the single best move at the deadline. He has been a target machine since his arrival in Minnesota, catching 16 of 19 targets for 115 yards across a pair of games.

The touchdown upside may be capped by the Vikings having elite options at WR (Jefferson) and RB (Cook), but who cares? Hockenson has picked up the offense immediately, and needs to be one of the first Tight Ends you consider in Week 11. We have seen his upside, and now he has established one of the highest floors at the position.

Dallas ranks 8th in the NFL against Tight Ends, per fantasy points allowed. I’ll use a term my kids use…DILLIGAF. It stands for “Does It Look Like I Give A F”. And I don’t. Hock is one of the best in the game, and the Vikings offense is a perfect home for his skill set.

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)

It pains me to suggest a player against my beloved Cincinnati Bengals in what amounts to a must-win for the team. In DFS, playoff positioning takes second fiddle. The Steelers offense is a trainwreck. They haven’t scored more than 20 points in a regulation game a single time this season.

“The Freir” has been one of the few bright spots in this offense. His role is solid, and he makes for a good option here against a Bengals defense that is middle of the pack against Tight Ends.

Pat has 23 targets over the last three weeks. With an offense that seems incapable of big plays down the field, Freiermuth should be busy underneath. The ceiling isn’t there, but he makes for a safe play with a small bit of upside here in a positive game script.

Foster Moreau, Raiders ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Darren Waller is on the IL, and so is the Raiders’ season. Feigned optimism has come out this week from Derek Carr and Davante Adams, but nobody is buying it. This team has underachieved all season as Josh McDaniels shows once again that he is an incapable Head Coach in the NFL.

Regardless, Moreau is now thrust into the starting role with Waller on the shelf, and he has proven capable. He is coming off a solid week (3-43-1), and now gets a Broncos team that is 17th in the NFL against opposing TE. Denver has been solid on the defensive end, but they can be beat with Tight Ends. Both of these teams are in competition for ONE thing: biggest disappointment in the NFL in 2022. Best of luck to both sides.

Cole Kmet, Bears ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

My favorite guy is back once again. I’ve been writing him up all season, and am stoked to see him and Justin Fields find success. No Tight End is close to the 9-115-4 that Kmet has posted the last two weeks. His ownership should be higher than Josh Gordon in this one.

Atlanta is bad defensively against, well, everyone. They rank 23rd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing Tight Ends. Kmet is still cheap, he has shown upside, and the Bears WR have not. His rapport with Fields cannot be taken for granted here. Sure, you’re buying a ton of ownership once again, but that doesn’t scare me off him. Hop back on the Kmet train with me. Bears country, let’s ride!

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 7, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Week 11 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 2 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

This week is a frustrating one. George Kittle is in a SMASH spot…not on the main slate. Travis Kelce and Gerald Everett? Not on main slate. Regardless, we move on as usual.

TJ Hockenson, Vikings ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)

Foster Moreau, Raiders ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Cole Kmet, Bears ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 7, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 11: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

After a smash week Week 10 NFL DFS lineups across the board (thank you, Christian Watson), let’s get back in the groove for Week 11. I hope everyone enjoyed the slate breakdown cheat-sheet I provided in Discord. Hopefully that helps your weekly process! Let’s move on to the Week 11 NFL DFS slate where it will be a rather condensed player pool for me.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD) – Josh Allen is not 100% healthy, in a potential ugly-weather game and Lamar Jackson is a damn-near double-digit favorite outdoors in potential ugly-weather as well, so Jalen Hurts gets the nod up top for me in terms of high priced “stud” quarterbacks. You know what you’re getting with Hurts as he makes for a fine cash and GPP NFL DFS play.

*UPDATE: Josh Allen and the Bills are now being moved to Detroit, in the dome. Fire away at Josh Allen if you’re into that spot.
Justin Fields ($7,600 DK / $8,700 FD) – His price is still probably too low on DraftKings as he legit has 60+ yard rushing touchdown upside at any time (as we saw again last week, lol). The fade certainly hurt my DFS upside last week, but I’ll probably ride the Fields’ train this week as I doubt his heater ends with the Falcons 28th ranked defense (in terms of DVOA). Fields is all systems go in cash and GPP again in Week 11 as he returns to his home state of Georgia.
Marcus Mariota ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – On FanDuel, I’d probably feel better just using the extra $300 to get to Dak Prescott, but on DraftKings, the savings offered with Marcus Mariota is very intriguing for my overall lineup construction. He’s likely got the highest “get benched” likelihood on the slate, but if you can stomach that risk, Mariota makes for an excellent NFL DFS GPP play and arguably a cash play (pending ownership).

The Bears have absolutely no one on defense (31st overall defense DVOA) and are brutal against both the rush and the pass. In addition, this Bears’ defense has averaged over 38 points per game surrendered to their opponents over the past three weeks… If we like Justin Fields again, we should be expecting a nice up-tempo gamescript for Mariota as he needs to keep the Falcons’ offense in line with the Bears’ recent high-powered offense. Lastly, the Falcons have seemed to have somewhat broken out of their snail’s pace, run-only offense we saw in the middle of the season as we’re starting to see more no-huddle offense. Mariota has averaged the highest number of pass attempts over the past three weeks as he has all season. I’m in, but it’s risky.

Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($8,900 DK / $9,700 FD) – No need to reinvent the wheel here, Saquon Barkley, at home, against the Lions.
Dalvin Cook ($8,000 DK / $8,300 FD) – Dalvin is in a smash spot here against the Cowboys’ run defense and a great game environment with a total 47.5 points (currently second highest on the slate). I love the recent usage in both the passing and running game and the AETY Model loves the upside here as it grades Dalvin Cook third in terms of touchdown equity at the running back position. Dalvin may very well come into the slate at sub-10% ownership making him a fantastic GPP play.
David Montgomery ($6,100 DK / $6,200 FD) – Way too cheap on both sites and the free-square type of play in my opinion with no Khalil Herbert taking every other drive for the Bears’ offense. If you’re not using Fields in cash, use Montgomery and there’s also GPP leverage here with Montgomery as Justin Fields is the anticipated QB chalk.
Antonio Gibson ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD) & Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – Both Commanders’ running backs in play this weekend against the #1 fantasy-friendly run defense in the Houston Texans. In cash games, I prefer Brian Robinson due to slightly more red-zone equity (and I am OK if you go double Commander on DK Cash with Terry/B-Rob), but in GPP builds, I like the versatility and pass-catching upside for Antonio Gibson. If for some reason this game shoots-out, Antonio Gibson is gamescript proof.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb, James Robinson (GPP only)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($9,100 DK / $9,100 FD) – Injury designation is no more. Fire up Justin Jefferson if you can afford him!
CeeDee Lamb ($7,500 DK / $8,100 FD) – Absolute core play for me in all formats this week, regardless of ownership. The Vikings’ have an extremely high Cover-3 usage rate and that is a massive advantage for CeeDee Lamb on the inside against Chandon Sullivan. Load up the CeeDee!
Gabe Davis ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) – With my love for CeeDee Lamb and one of Saquon Barkley or Dalvin Cook, I just cannot afford to pay up for Stefon Diggs (if you can, go for it). I really want to try to get a piece of the Bills’ offense as they have the highest implied team total on the slate and are now playing in a dome. I’ll be pushing on Gabe Davis this week due to the savings offered and the target share upgrade we’ll likely see when the Browns blitz and run their Cover-4 zone defense. Gabe is an excellent boom-or-bust 5% owned GPP play this weekend.
Courtland Sutton ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – Assuming Jerry Jeudy is OUT, Courtland Sutton is pretty much the only proven-game in town for the Broncos’ receiving core. With the state of this Denver Broncos’ offense, it’s probably best to keep Sutton in your cash game player pool as the upside just has not been there whatsoever for anyone in the orange uniforms.
Terry McLaurin ($5,900 DK / $7,300 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings. McLaurin is clearly the top-target in Washington by a mile when Taylor Heinicke is under center and this is a very winnable matchup against rookie Derrick Stingley Jr. He’s a solid play in cash game and GPP formats, though I prefer strictly cash game exposure with this game environment.
Darnell Mooney ($5,400 DK / $6,000 FD) – Fantastic price-points against the Falcons’ slot corner, Isaiah Oliver. The Falcons will run a lot of Cover-1, Cover-3 and Cover-2 defense which is all advantage Darnell Mooney. He will likely be a core play for me in NFL DFS GPP lineups as I’m leaning towards game-stacking CHI @ ATL.
Drake London ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) – I’m projecting Atlanta to be in a bit of a back-and-forth, up-tempo gamescript here and that will get me to lean on the Atlanta pass catchers. This is a beautiful buy-low spot for Drake London at extremely affordable salaries, in a dream matchup against Jaylon Jones. I’d prefer him in GPP builds only as we know the extreme volatility at hand investing in the Falcons’ passing game.
Parris Campbell ($4,300 DK / $5,800 FD) – Too cheap for a valued target of Matt Ryan’s who has one of the only matchups against this Philadelphia secondary that doesn’t grade as a negative in the AETY Model. Avonte Maddox is now on the IR and that should open up the middle of the field for Campbell against a pure backup cornerback in Josiah Scott. He’s fine as a value play in both cash and GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Nico Collins (cash viable on DK with the high ownership)

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

TJ Hockenson ($5,300 DK / $6,500 FD) – Hockenson has quietly been utilized like a borderline fantasy WR2 since he’s been traded to Vikings… 19 targets in two games! We’re getting close to Travis Kelce type of usage (obviously he isn’t Travis Kelce, but neither is his price). Hockenson will likely be around 5% in ownership and in this up-tempo Dallas @ Minnesota game, will make for an excellent GPP play. We’ll see a lot of him when Dallas shows their Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defenses.
Kyle Pitts ($4,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – It’s gross, but again, I’m in on this Falcons’ passing attack this week and Kyle Pitts is my top stacking option for Mariota. As mentioned in Discord, Kyle Pitts has been slowly working his way back to lining up in the slot (where he is at his best) and away from in-line snaps. Either Arthur Smith is starting to understand how serious of a weapon Kyle Pitts is or it’s a fluke. I lean on the side that the slot snap-share rising is a strategic move.

Although Pitts won’t exclusively see Kyler Gordon in coverage (the others in coverage for the Bears aren’t much better), this is a matchup we need to pick-on. Gordon has allowed massive production to all those who line up against him as he’s given up the most receiving yards in the NFL to receivers targeted in the slot, by a wide margin. Pitts should absolutely smash the Bears’ Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defenses (as long as this game stays up-tempo). He’s a fine play for GPP’s and arguably viable in cash.
Dalton Schultz ($4,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Not quite as sexy as Hockenson’s recent usage, but 15 targets over his past two games is excellent on a slate when there is no Travis Kelce. The red-zone utilization is also taking a massive leap upward now that Dak Prescott is back. This is a game I love to attack and Schultz is more of a WR2 than he is a mid-tier priced tight-end.
Greg Dulcich ($3,800 DK / $5,500 FD) – I personally have zero interest in Dulcich outside of cash games. On FanDuel, I’d advise going elsewhere, on DraftKings, it looks like he’ll be the highest owned tight-end by a mile so it’s safe to go there if you need savings.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Tyler Higbee, Cole Kmet

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Washington Commanders
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets
Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

CeeDee Lamb
David Montgomery
Saquon Barkley
Greg Dulcich
Terry McLaurin

NFL DFS GPP Core (DraftKings)

I’ll be out of town this weekend for a wedding so I want to share my NFL DFS GPP “core” that I usually give out on the Sunday livestream if anyone is interested. Good luck this week!

Marcus Mariota (risky as hell, so I understand if you don’t want to go there)
Dalvin Cook
CeeDee Lamb
Darnell Mooney
Kyle Pitts

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