nba dfs picks

We get a six-game NBA DFS slate for Friday night and we have some solid spots to attack. Get my full breakdown of my core plays plus my favorite value spots. See which game I am going to be targeting and why. Plus, to top it off, I give my top two bets for tonights NBA action.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Rudy Gobert $7,700 – 40.35 DK Points – 5.24 Value Rating

Rudy Gobert comes in at a huge discount while the Minnesota Timberwolves are without Karl-Anthony Towns. Now, it is against the Cleveland Cavaliers who manage to defend bigs very well. In three games this season without KAT, Gobert is averaging 17.3 points, 16 rebounds, and three blocks per game. He just recorded 18 points and 14 rebounds last night versus Indiana Pacers. At $7,700 and a value rating of 5.24, I do not want to pass up on Rudy Gobert . He can hit a solid ceiling with no Karl-Anthony Towns tonight.

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Lamar Stevens $4,100 – 24.15 DK Points – 5.89 Value Rating

Lamar Stevens has a solid matchup tonight versus the Atlanta Hawks as they continue to struggle versus forwards. The Hawks currently allow forwards to average 25.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. On the offensive side for Lamar Stevens, his minutes have gone up lately as he is averaging 17.4 minutes per game. Alongside the minutes, he is averaging 10.2 points and 3.4 rebounds in his last five. With a solid matchup with a fast-paced environment, Lamar Stevens has a good chance to help give us the value we need.

Kyle Kuzma $7,800 – 44.70 DK points – 5.70 Value Rating

Kyle Kuzma gets a great matchup tonight versus Charlotte but also with the fast-paced play of the Washington Wizards, his value is at a top level. Coming in at just $7,800 versus the Hornets who allow 24.5 points, 11 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game, Kuzma is a great play. The Hornets rank at the bottom when it comes to pace of play as they only average 101.1 possessions per game while the Washington Wizards lead the league with 106.5 possessions. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only play above $10k tonight and being able to pair Kyle Kuzma with Rudy Gobert is a great duo to start your lineups with.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Richaun Holmes $3,700 – 22.18 DK points – 5.99 Value Rating

Richaun Holmes leads the way when it comes to value rating tonight in the NBA Player Projections sheet. He’s projected for 22.18 points and a value rating of 5.99. Alongside Kyle Kuzma, Holmes should see some run time versus a Charlotte Hornets team that can give up points and boards to centers. The Hornets currently allow 24.8 points and 16.1 rebounds overall to the center position. This makes Holmes a solid value play.

Dean Wade $3,800 – 21.73 DK Points – 5.72 Value Rating

Dean Wade should see the starting nod for the Cleveland Cavaliers once again as the injury bug is hitting the team hard. While Wade did have a huge showing versus Boston on Tuesday with 23 points and eight rebounds, he came down to reality versus Atlanta with nine points and four boards. Now, the Cavaliers get to face the Minnesota Timberwolves as they deal without Karl-Anthony Towns. He’ll go above value if he reaches the 21.73 DK points and exceeds it which makes him a good target for salary-relief if you’re paying up for SGA.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Charlotte Hornets (+114) versus Washington Wizards (-135) – Total 225.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

This is one of the lower totals of the slate but there is a lot that we can go after tonight. With the fast-paced Washington Wizards, Kyle Kuzma comes in huge at just $7.8k. Tyus Jones also marks as a good value play, sitting at 5.09 and projects for 31.54 points. While Corey Kisperts doesn’t project as well, he should pay off his price tag. Even Deni Avdija projects for 36.86 DK Points tonight. The Washington Wizards as a two-man or three-man stack could pay off well.

For the Charlotte Hornets, this game is a boost spot due to their slow pace and having to match the Wizards. Miles Bridges holds a 5.20 value rating while sitting at 43.66 DK points in the projections. He does come in higher-priced than Kyle Kuzma, but he is worth a play if entering multiple lineups. Tre Mann continues to pl;ay consistent basketball and sits at 5.38 value rating with a price tag of $5.8k. Another solid two-man stack here with the Charlotte Hornets.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Kyle Kuzma over 22.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)

We have discussed Kyle Kuzma a lot already in this article and we’ll make this short and sweet. He has averaged 26 points versus Charlotte in three games already this season. Kuzma has only missed the 22.5 total once in his last five games and that was versus the Los Angeles Lakers where he had a slow start. Overall, he should continute his consistent scoring play and log another good outing versus Charlotte.

Buddy Hield over 3.5 Assists -125 (DK Sportsbook)

Buddy Hield has been finding some success in the passing lane as of lately and has another good opportunity tonight versus the New Orleans Pelicans. They currently allow shooting guards to average 5.6 assists per. For Hield, he is averaging 4.2 assists per game in his last five. He has only missed the total once those five games.

Back-to-back days that we get an eight-game NBA DFS slate and I’m here to cover all of your needs. While the DFS plays on Tuesday weren’t the best, the bets went one for two. It’s time to bounce back and get back on track. We’ll see who the best plays are and which game to target while breaking down the top two bets to play.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander $10,700 – 56.08 DK Points – 5.24 Value Rating

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comes into tonight’s slate as the third-highest projected player. The Oklahoma City Thunder get to face the Portland Trailblazers in what could be a one-sided matchup. The Thunder play at a fast pace, averaging 104 possessions per game while Portland sits at 102.4. The concern may be that this turns into a blowout game but that hasn’t stopped Gilgeous-Alexander from having success in fewer minutes of play. In three games this season, SGA has averaged 30.7 points, six assists, and 4.7 rebounds while averaging 26.2 minutes versus Portland. He held a 59.6% field-goal percentage versus them while averaging two steals per game.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Luka Samanic $3,500 – 22.21 DK Points – 6.35 Value Rating

Luka Samanic will be a name to watch up until lock as he is currently projected to be in the starting lineup for the Utah Jazz. Samanic does hold the highest value rating on the projections, sitting at 6.35. If he does start, he’ll help open up a lot of salary room. He did log 23 minutes versus Washington on Monday and he recorded five points, two rebounds, and two assists while adding on two blocks and one steal on the defensive end. Give Luka Samanic nearly 25 minutes once again and he’ll be able to give us the value we need.

De’Aaron Fox- $8,600 – 46.94 DK points – 5.46 Value Rating

De’Aaron Fox staying in the core three will strictly ride on the value that opens up throughout the day. If we get more value and salary savings from guys in the Luka Samanic range, Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander combo will be my favorite to run. The Sacramento Kings versus Los Angeles Lakers game is the game with the highest total on the slate and for good reason. De’Aaron Fox will see a matchup that benefits him as the Lakers allow opposing point guards to average 25.8 points, 8.5 assists, and 6.2 rebounds per game. In the two meetings this season already. Fox averaged 32.5 points with 6.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game while averaging 2.5 steals. He’ll be able to fill up the stat sheet tonight once again.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Corey Kispert $4,500 – 24.78 DK points – 5.51 Value Rating

Corey Kispert is coming in with two bad performances back-to-back but has been playing well as of late. In his last five games, Kispert has averaged 14.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. He has seen Orlando three times already this season but still was able to put up points versus them. In those three games, he averaged 14.3 points, two rebounds, and two assists while averaging nearly 21 minutes.

Cameron Payne $4,100 – 19.45 DK Points – 4.74 Value Rating

Cameron Payne should be in line for another start today as Tyrese Maxey is dealing with a mild concussion. With his start last night, Payne recorded 15 points, three rebounds, and one assist while getting one steal. Now, the Philadelphia 76ers will face off versus the Memphis Grizzlies. They currently allow guards to average 21.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game. Overall, the 76ers will provide some value plays alongside their opponents, the Memphis Grizzlies.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Sacramento Kings (+114) versus Los Angeles Lakers (-135) – Total 238.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

The game to target is going to be a good one with the Sacramento Kings facing off against the Los Angeles Lakers once again. With the highest point total on the slate, the Kings and Lakers play at a fast-paced. The Kings currently average 103.7 possessions per game while the Lakers average 104.7. A slight boost for Kings players. While Domantas Sabonis is the highest-priced player in this matchup at $10,600, the rest of the Kings players add some good value. Keegan Murray sits at $5.8k and Harrison Barnes sits at $4.1k.

For the Los Angeles Lakers, Anthony Davis is priced over $10k with a $10.3k price tag, and his performances versus Sacramento this season haven’t been the best. Now, LeBron James sits under $10k with a $9.8k price tag and is averaging a triple-double versus Sacramento this season. He is averaging 27.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 10 assists through two games. He makes for a great pivot from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. D’Angelo Russell would be the other Lakers starter to consider at $7k but he pushes that line. James makes for the best pay-up spot, alongside De’Aaron Fox when targeting this matchup.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Jalen Suggs over 9.5 Points -115 (bet365)

Jalen Suggs comes into tonight’s matchup with a projection of 13.61 points and an edge of 43.21% to hit the over. He gets a boost in pace as the Washington Wizards lead the league in possessions per game with 106.6. Suggs should have more opportunities created for him to score. In three meetings this season versus Washington, he has averaged 16 points per game.

Santi Aldama over 6.5 Rebounds +106 (FD Sportsbook)

With the Philadelphia 76erx being depleted due to injuries, Santi Aldama has a very strong case to hit the over. While his projection for rebounds is close to the 6.5 total, he has improved on the boards. He’s averaging 6.2 rebounds in his last five games and had back-to-back games with eight rebounds. He has also logged 32 or more minutes in three of those last five games.

We get a massive eight-game NBA DFS slate for Tuesday night and a lot to comb through. I’ll be breaking down my core plays and favorite value plays. See which game to target and what my favorite bets are for the night. Let us dive in and get to the action.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Caris LeVert $5,500 – 31.56 DK Points – 5.74 Value Rating

The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming into Tuesday’s game banged up. Caris LeVert should benefit greatly from that and holds a 5.74 value rating, tying him for the second-highest value play. LeVert recorded 14 points, 15 assists, and seven rebounds versus Chicago on Wednesday. This season, without Donovan Mitchell, Caris Levert holds a usage rate of 27.9% while averaging 15.8 points, 4.5 assists, and 2.5 rebounds in games without him.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Tobias Harris $7,200 – 35.50 DK Points – 4.93 Value Rating

The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Tyrese Maxey tonight, boosting up Tobias Harris. While the Brooklyn Nets do challenge power forwards, Harris will have more opportunities tonight to exceed his $7,200 price tag. Harris has averaged 34 minutes in his past five games while recording 19 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game. He has had two good scoring performances in his last two games, recording 31 points with 12 rebounds versus Charlotte and then 28 points and five rebounds versus Dallas.

Victor Wembanyama $10,700 – 54.63 DK points – 5.11 Value Rating

Victor Wembanyama gets a huge price jump tonight but for very good reason. He faces a Houston Rocket team that he has already put up monstrous double-doubles again. While he is a walking double-double, he and Luka Doncic make the case to always pay up for them. San Antonio does play at the fourth-highest pace with 105 possessions per game and should force Houston to play quicker. With that, mixed with Wembanyama’s two-game sample versus Houston, the $10,700 price tag is still reasonable to play.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Paul Reed $5,100 – 29.99 DK points – 5.88 Value Rating

Mo Bamba has been getting the starting nod at center for the Philadelphia 76ers but Paul Reed has been making the most of his opportunity. Reed has recorded 29 DK points in back-to-back games now and still gets a price drop. He projects as the top value play with a rating of 5.88 and a projection of 29.99 DK points tonight. Also, he has flirted with the double-double bonus in those two games. While Brooklyn is good at stopping centers from scoring, they are still allowing 14.6 rebounds per game.

Sam Merrill $4,100 – 22.20 DK Points – 5.41 Value Rating

Sam Merrill is coming in at a great price point of $4,100 while the Cleveland Cavaliers are battling some injury news. Donovan Mitchell does remain out for three more games but even Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro have been hit with the questionable tag. Merrill could have a huge opportunity tonight. He has recorded 12 and 21 points in his past two games while playing 25 minutes or more in both. Give him a short-handed team and we may see the value exceed expectations.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Indiana Pacers (+160) versus Dallas Maverick (-192) – Total 246 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

This is going to be a fast-paced game between two very good teams. We have one huge questionable tag and that is Luka Doncic. He hurt his ankle in Dallas’s previous game and if he is out, Kyrie Irving gets a major boost. We won’t get that news until closer to lock. While Dallas won’t have the greatest value in it, Josh Green stands out at $4,200. While his games haven’t been outstanding, he has been playing consistent basketball and would get a huge boost. However, Doncic will most likely play and bet the top option once again.

On the opposite side, the Indiana Pacers play fast basketball and play it well. Now, Tyrese Haliburton has not been playing to where he should be but is only $9,000 tonight. Pascal Siakam is at $7,700 and has played consistent basketball and we know what exactly we’ll get with him. He has also found success versus Dallas, averaging 21.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in two games. T.J. McConnell is at $5,000 today due to the high total overall but is also coming off of a strong showing where he recorded 41.5 fantasy points. We get better value on the Indiana side and the game calls for high scoring.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Ausar Thompson over 6.5 Rebounds +115 (bet365)

Ausar Thompson has a solid chance tonight to rack up some rebounds and with a total of 6.5 as his line, our tool has him projected at basically nine rebounds and a 49.83% edge. He has recorded six, seven, and eight rebounds in his past three games. For Miami, they are allowing 7.4 rebounds to opposing forwards per game.

Herbert Jones over 12.5 Points + Assists -120 (Bet365)

Herbert Jones has been scoring better as of late and has hit the 12.5 total just off points alone in four of his last five games. While he didn’t have the best outing in the first meeting versus Toronto, they do tend to allow forwards to score. They currently allow them to average 24.8 points and 4.3 assists per game. In the player prop tool, Jones projects for 16.37 points and assists, sitting at a 31% edge.

A fresh new week for us to kick off and we have a six-game NBA DFS slate on DraftKings. I’ll be breaking down my core plays for the slate alongside some value plays that shoot help boost your lineup. On top of that, I’ll give my game to target overall plus two of my favorite bets for the day.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar $10,700 – 55.3 DK Points – 5.17 Value Rating

Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar has been on a massive tear and has recorded 30 or more points in eight straight games. Now, he faces the Los Angeles Lakers who are allowing opposing guards to average 23.8 points per game. They also allow 7.1 rebounds and six assists per game. This will also be a fast-paced game as both teams average 104 possessions per game. Gilgeous-Alexander has already found success versus the Lakers this year as he has faced them three times. In those three games, he has averaged 30.3 points, 6.7 assists, and four rebounds.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Kyle Kuzma $7,400 – 43.32 DK Points – 5.85 Value Rating

Kyle Kuzma has a huge value rating tonight while sitting at just $7,400. Kuzma is holding a usage rating of 31% this season while averaging 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and four assists per game. He has been flirting with multiple double-doubles in his last five games as he has recorded two already. He should be able to record another one tonight as he gets to face the Utah Jazz. They currently allow opposing power forwards to average 27.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game.

Andre Drummond $5,200 – 32.72 DK points – 6.29 Value Rating

The Sacramento Kings may not be the worst out of all of the teams when it comes to guarding centers. However, Andre Drummond has been dominating as of late and that’s why he’s the top-value player on the slate. In his last three games, Drummond has recorded a total of 47 rebounds. He recorded 20 points with 11 rebounds versus Detroit which he followed that game up with 17 points and 26 rebounds versus Cleveland. To round it out, he recorded 9 points and 10 rebounds versus Milwaukee. The Kings will have to find a way to slow him down on the boards but that double-double bonus upside at $5,200 is one to not pass up on.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Jabari Walker $4,700 – 26.39 DK points – 5.61 Value Rating

Jabari Walker pops up as a good pay-down big man tonight. His last two games have been impressive. He recorded 19 points and 10 rebounds Friday night versus Memphis and then recorded 18 points and 12 rebounds versus them again on Saturday. Minnesota has proven to be a challenge at times but not for Walker. In three games this season, he has averaged 9.7 points, eight rebounds, and 1.3 assists.

Spencer Dinwiddie $4,000 – 20.59 DK Points – 5.35 Value Rating

There aren’t too many low-cost plays as of now for tonight’s slate but that could change. Spencer Dinwiddie has a straight-forward matchup history versus Oklahoma City this season which makes me feel okay playing him at $4,000. I typically avoid him. In two games this season, Dinwiddie has averaged 18 points, 4.5 assists, and three rebounds per game versus Oklahoma City while averaging nearly 35 minutes. He may not top 30 minutes tonight, but he has found success versus the Thunder which makes me willing to play him.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Oklahoma City Thunder (-112) versus Los Angeles Lakers (-108) – Total 238.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

We’re going to split the game to target into two games. The pay-up spots in tonight’s matchup that features the Thunder and Lakers are ones to not pass up. The core piece is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but we still have Anthony Davis ($10.1k) and LeBron James ($9.7k) which are also great plays. There is the obvious questionable tags for both, Davis and LeBron, which also would boost either one. If LeBron James does sit, Davis shoots up as a good spot if you pivot from SGA or vice versus for James. Chet Holmgren may be one player to avoid overall but Josh Giddey ($5.3k) is a great pairing partner.

The second game to look at for some value is going to be the Washington Wizards versus the Utah Jazz. This game holds the highest total of the night with 241 points. Kyle Kuzma is a great play but Utah news has already started to roll in. That could provide some good low-cost plays to be rolled into the lineup. John Collins ($6.5k) has a great matchup and holds a 6.13 value rating with a projection of 39.87 DK Points. Overall, the cheaper plays could be found in this matchup.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Alex Caruso over 10.5 Points + Assists -115 (bet365)

Alex Caruso comes in as the third-highest edge play in the NBA Player Prop Model, sitting at 42%. He has hit the over in four of his last five games. While it has been just one game this season meeting the Sacramento Kings, Caruso did record seven points and six assists.

Deni Avdija over 3.5 Assists -105 (DK Sportsbook)

Deni Avdija comes in averaging 3.4 assists per game while notching back-to-back games with five assists. Avdija gets a Utah Jazz team that is allowing forwards to average 4.8 assists per game this season. With that being said, he did record five assists in their first meeting this season and should be able to replicate it as this is the highest-total game on tonight’s plate.

Get access to our NBA DFS Player Prop Model here and find the best edge in the industry! An example from yesterday is below. Click the image for today’s updated model