Adam Strangis Sunday brings us what is very likely the last two-game slate of the NBA season and instead of Ghost, it’s Adam Strangis filling in. The NBA world is still talking about the magnificent Game 7 between the Bucks and Nets last night but we get another Game 7 tonight in Philly. Before that game takes place, we get the Clippers against the Suns at the start of the West Finals so let’s ride into NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 06/20!
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
NBA Core Member #1: Cameron Payne
Payne will almost surely be chalk today since he’s only $4,000 on DK and we know that Chris Paul is out for Game 1. DK doesn’t even make us think about this one because, in the course of the regular season, Payne was a 1.03 FPPM player when Paul was off the court with a 19.6% usage rate and a 29.5% assist rate. When CP3 was nursing the shoulder injury in the Lakers series, Payne really stepped up and had four games above 25 DK and two over 35. We’ll surely see big minutes from Payne and at this price, that alone makes him highly valuable. The fact he’s shown he can thrive in the postseason is just a bonus.
NBA Core Member #2: Devin Booker
Sadly, this playoffs has become known for the injuries/ailments of All-Star players just as much as some of the great games we’ve witnessed. With Paul out, I’ll turn to the full backcourt here of Phoenix and play an underpriced Booker. He’s already had some signature moments this year and making an impression in the WCF has a clearer path with no Paul. When CP3 was off the floor this season, Booker had a 34.8% usage rate and the offense is going to flow through this backcourt. No offense to anyone else on the offense, but that’s the way it is. If you have any worries about Paul George’s defense or something like that, Donovan Mitchell’s 39 points on a bum leg should soothe that fear.
You can round out the Phoenix exposure with either Deandre Ayton or Jae Crowder as well. I really like Ayton as he can punish the Clippers for playing small. This is a young man that just held his own against the Lakers frontline and Nikola Jokic. I think folks that watched Rudy Gobert struggle mightily against the small ball Clippers could be surprised to see Ayton flourish in the same spot. Ayton is not a must-play, but a strong one in my eyes. The loss of CP3 doesn’t kill his offense because Ayton has 1.29 points per possession on putbacks in the playoffs. The Suns aren’t running a lot of plays for him.
NBA Core Member #3: Terrence Mann or Seth Curry
Alright, so this isn’t a cop-out but this is where the fork in the road pops up for the first time. I believe that Mann will likely be insanely popular even at $4,900 after he just dropped 39 real points and was the hero of Game 6 for LA. I don’t think the price hike is wildly out of place but I also don’t think Mann will come all that close to replicating that feat. It was the most points he’s scored at the high school, collegiate, or pro level. In Game 5, he played all of 26 minutes and put up 23 DK. The Clippers need players to step up without Kawhi Leonard, but Mann has every path to 5x return here.
Instead, consider going with what I have to assume will be a less popular option in Curry. The prime argument against the Other Curry is he simply can’t keep shooting like this, going 13-21 from deep alone the past two games. At the same time, Curry has netted at least 17 points five times in this series and is playing 35 minutes or more. The Sixers desperately need his shooting with Danny Green out and other players…well, having issues. We’ll be kind. The only teams that made it into the second round that gave up a higher made field goal percentage from deep were the Nuggets, Clippers, and Jazz. Atlanta has been vulnerable to the three-point shot. I’ll say this, I want to get a read on ownership and take the player we think will be less popular. You may not have the luxury to play both, as you’ll see.
NBA Core Member #4: The Stud
Once again, this is not a cop-out because my pick is Paul George. My feeling is you have to take one of PG13, Trae Young, or Joel Embiid and not try to finagle two of them if already playing Booker. George or Young presents a bit of a roster dilemma on DK because if you’re playing the other three, those two have to go into the utility or guard spot. Embiid would offer some flexibility if you choose that route. All three of these players have similar ceilings and if you opt for a Game 7 player, I wouldn’t fight you.
I’m siding with PG since Kawhi is out for at least the first two games and George has been sublime in the two games without him so far, scoring 71 and 54 DK points. He’s gotten to the line a total of 18 times and played 40+ minutes in each game, scoring 28 and 37 real points. George also crashed the boards with 25 total rebounds and they’ll need him to replicate that against the front line of Phoenix. He’s racked up a 33% usage rate and I have some concerns about how well that knee is holding up for Embiid. As far as Young goes, I have no issues subbing him in over George and he’s rocking a 36% usage rate these past two games. I believe the floor is slightly higher for George, so I’m heading there since Philly and Atlanta are relatively healthy, and more is on George’s shoulders.
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
