A fresh new week for us to kick off and we have a six-game NBA DFS slate on DraftKings. I’ll be breaking down my core plays for the slate alongside some value plays that shoot help boost your lineup. On top of that, I’ll give my game to target overall plus two of my favorite bets for the day.
NBA DFS – Core Plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar $10,700 – 55.3 DK Points – 5.17 Value Rating
Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar has been on a massive tear and has recorded 30 or more points in eight straight games. Now, he faces the Los Angeles Lakers who are allowing opposing guards to average 23.8 points per game. They also allow 7.1 rebounds and six assists per game. This will also be a fast-paced game as both teams average 104 possessions per game. Gilgeous-Alexander has already found success versus the Lakers this year as he has faced them three times. In those three games, he has averaged 30.3 points, 6.7 assists, and four rebounds.
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Kyle Kuzma $7,400 – 43.32 DK Points – 5.85 Value Rating
Kyle Kuzma has a huge value rating tonight while sitting at just $7,400. Kuzma is holding a usage rating of 31% this season while averaging 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and four assists per game. He has been flirting with multiple double-doubles in his last five games as he has recorded two already. He should be able to record another one tonight as he gets to face the Utah Jazz. They currently allow opposing power forwards to average 27.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game.
Andre Drummond $5,200 – 32.72 DK points – 6.29 Value Rating
The Sacramento Kings may not be the worst out of all of the teams when it comes to guarding centers. However, Andre Drummond has been dominating as of late and that’s why he’s the top-value player on the slate. In his last three games, Drummond has recorded a total of 47 rebounds. He recorded 20 points with 11 rebounds versus Detroit which he followed that game up with 17 points and 26 rebounds versus Cleveland. To round it out, he recorded 9 points and 10 rebounds versus Milwaukee. The Kings will have to find a way to slow him down on the boards but that double-double bonus upside at $5,200 is one to not pass up on.
NBA DFS – Top Value Targets
Jabari Walker $4,700 – 26.39 DK points – 5.61 Value Rating
Jabari Walker pops up as a good pay-down big man tonight. His last two games have been impressive. He recorded 19 points and 10 rebounds Friday night versus Memphis and then recorded 18 points and 12 rebounds versus them again on Saturday. Minnesota has proven to be a challenge at times but not for Walker. In three games this season, he has averaged 9.7 points, eight rebounds, and 1.3 assists.
Spencer Dinwiddie $4,000 – 20.59 DK Points – 5.35 Value Rating
There aren’t too many low-cost plays as of now for tonight’s slate but that could change. Spencer Dinwiddie has a straight-forward matchup history versus Oklahoma City this season which makes me feel okay playing him at $4,000. I typically avoid him. In two games this season, Dinwiddie has averaged 18 points, 4.5 assists, and three rebounds per game versus Oklahoma City while averaging nearly 35 minutes. He may not top 30 minutes tonight, but he has found success versus the Thunder which makes me willing to play him.
NBA DFS – Game To Target
Oklahoma City Thunder (-112) versus Los Angeles Lakers (-108) – Total 238.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
We’re going to split the game to target into two games. The pay-up spots in tonight’s matchup that features the Thunder and Lakers are ones to not pass up. The core piece is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but we still have Anthony Davis ($10.1k) and LeBron James ($9.7k) which are also great plays. There is the obvious questionable tags for both, Davis and LeBron, which also would boost either one. If LeBron James does sit, Davis shoots up as a good spot if you pivot from SGA or vice versus for James. Chet Holmgren may be one player to avoid overall but Josh Giddey ($5.3k) is a great pairing partner.
The second game to look at for some value is going to be the Washington Wizards versus the Utah Jazz. This game holds the highest total of the night with 241 points. Kyle Kuzma is a great play but Utah news has already started to roll in. That could provide some good low-cost plays to be rolled into the lineup. John Collins ($6.5k) has a great matchup and holds a 6.13 value rating with a projection of 39.87 DK Points. Overall, the cheaper plays could be found in this matchup.
NBA DFS – Best Bets
Alex Caruso over 10.5 Points + Assists -115 (bet365)
Alex Caruso comes in as the third-highest edge play in the NBA Player Prop Model, sitting at 42%. He has hit the over in four of his last five games. While it has been just one game this season meeting the Sacramento Kings, Caruso did record seven points and six assists.
Deni Avdija over 3.5 Assists -105 (DK Sportsbook)
Deni Avdija comes in averaging 3.4 assists per game while notching back-to-back games with five assists. Avdija gets a Utah Jazz team that is allowing forwards to average 4.8 assists per game this season. With that being said, he did record five assists in their first meeting this season and should be able to replicate it as this is the highest-total game on tonight’s plate.
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