Welcome into the inaugural edition of Three StriKes!! I’m super pumped to be bringing this article to the WinDaily team this season and looking forward to winning some money. We’re looking at my three favorite strikeout props, hence the Three StriKes for Thursday July 23. If you’re interested in learning a bit more of the process, I do have an intro right here.
With Thursday being a short slate, we’ll talk about the top three pitchers on the slate but I’m not sure I’ll be betting three tonight. If I do, it will likely go down to a quarter unit instead of a normal half unit in some cases and will be noted as such. Also, I will always put at least a quarter unit on a parlay of all three bets. When we get all three right, we may as well make it worth it.
The very first pitcher ever written up for Three StriKes is near and dear to my heart, Gerrit Cole. As a point of reference, almost all of my betting will be done on DraftKings Sportsbook as that’s the most convenient for me personally. So when talking about the lines, they’ll be as accurate as they can at the time of writing for that site. Cole has opened up at 7.5 strikeouts at -155. While the return might not be great, this is an easy over in my eyes.
First off, he threw 87 pitches in his most recent tune up so workload isn’t a concern. Secondly, only seven of his 33 starts last year produced under eight strikeouts. That’s a very comfortable rate and the Nationals whiffed 21% of the time last year against righty pithing. Losing Anthony Rendon won’t help that mark. We have the preeminent strikeout pitcher from 2019 and his line isn’t even the highest in his own game.
Bet – Over 7.5 K’s
This one is a little tougher and whichever way we bet is going to be just a quarter unit for Three StriKes for Thursday. This would be a line I might normally skip on a bigger slate but let’s have some fun.
Scherzer is set at 8.5 K’s and there are arguments for either side. Here’s the good news for Scherzer and one of the main reasons I lean to the over – he was dominant to RHH in 2019 and there’s a projected seven of them for the Yankees. Mad Max whiffed RHH at a 38.6% clip and held them down to a 0.65 HR/9. He also gave up just a .193 average, 1.62 FIP and a 2.22 xFIP.
Additionally, the Yankees did strikeout at a 23.1% clip last year to RHP. That was virtually without Giancarlo Stanton, who whiffed 31.1% of the time in 2018 (he missed almost all of 2019). What Scherzer comes down to is if he can keep the ball in the yard against this powerful Yankees lineup.
New York against RHH raked for power, ranking third in ISO at .218 and OPS at .820. For all of Stanton’s flaws, he also helps in this category. My view is Scherzer gives up a couple runs, but can control this RHH heavy lineup. I just won’t put a ton on it.
Bet – Small wager on Over 8.5 K’s
Just because there’s only two games doesn’t mean we can’t have Three StriKes for Thursday! Kershaw does not currently have a K prop set yet. This will be a normal occurrence because I will be writing the night before, but that’s ok. We’ll discuss some of the stats and we’ll set a line that we feel comfortable with and go from there.
In 2019, Kershaw threw his fastball and slider for a combined 83.1% of his pitches. That’s a fantastic match against the Giants pitch data from 2019, as they ranked 28th vs the fastball and 24th vs the slider. That’s a strong checkmark for Kershaw and his 26.8% K rate from last season. He also has thrown 90 pitches in sim games, so we can feel comfortable with the workload.
There are a couple small drawbacks for Kershaw in this matchup. For one, his HR/9 last year jumped to 1.41. That’s easily the highest of his career so it was technically never easier to tag Kershaw for a bomb. The flip side to that is the Giants only had a .142 ISO, so it remains to be seen if they can take advantage of the long ball.
The other small knock is the Giants were not a big strikeout team against LHP at 23%. That was dead average at 16th among the league, so it wasn’t a glaring weakness. Still, this is not a lineup that should scare you at all. I’m hoping for a 5.5 K prop, but it’s likelier to be 6.5 K’s.
Bet – 5.5 is an easier over, I’m likely to still hit Over 6.5
Parlay – Cole and Kershaw over as Kershaw came in at my preferred 5.5
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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We’ve got a historic Game 7 of the World Series on tap, and our 10/30 DFS picks for MLB are geared to win you green in GPPs and take down cash games!
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The Astros are favored by a half-run and projected implied totalsput them at about 4.25-4.5 runs, with the Nats around 3.75-4 runs. The last fewgames have eclipsed the projected total, so we can expect Game 7 to do thesame. It should be an exciting finish to a fun season of MLB action!
Game 7 willfeature Zack Greinke (DK$15,600/$10,400) on normal rest versus MaxScherzer (DK $16,800/$11,200), who was scratched from his Game 5 starts withdebilitating back and neck spasms, got a cortisone shot and will be on the bumpto start Game 7. High drama, folks.
Greinke haspitched adequately in the last two series against potent offenses, whichcertainly elevates those performances on a degree of difficulty level but doesn’tnecessarily inspire confidence for fantasy usefulness at his current price. TheNats hitters looked pretty locked in during the later innings last night, and I’mnot interested in forcing either of these pitchers into my lineups today –though we could see 4-5 innings with enough Ks to warrant consideration atlower exposure.
Scherzer saidhe felt “good” throwing yesterday and actually loosened up in the bullpen for aspell toward the end of Game 6 – looking every bit the part and successfully sellingthe idea that the C-shot worked. I’ll be buying a few shares in Nats-heavybuilds.
In a winner-take-all Game 7 with nothing but glory and defeat the remainingdestinies for tomorrow, we could see quick hooks for either pitcher if the stuffisn’t there after the first several batters. These bullpens aren’t as deep assome of their previous playoff counterparts, but they have a bevy of arms that couldbe forced into duty if something goes awry. There’s some equity in fading thestarters altogether and stacking bats and the right bullpen arm – which for meshould be a closer since they could be expected to throw two innings inhigh-stakes moments.
Final thoughts about pitching:
Let’s get to the hitters.
Jose Altuve is my favorite hitter on Houston and will be in about 90 percent of my builds. Beyond that it’s Yuri Gurriel, George Springer and Michael Brantley, in that order. I wouldn’t fault you for starting Bregman (who with the price drop they are just DARING you to plug in), Yordan Alvarez or one of the cheap outfielders or catchers (likely Robinson Chirinos but Martin Maldonado has dingers in him too).
For the Nats, I’m counting on the Astros quieting Soto – who shouldhave the highest ownership among the Washington bats, and focusing on ticked-offtable-setter Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera and his wealth of experience facingGreinke (18-for-40 career with six walks and just three strikeouts), and anothervalue bat or two. Again – I wouldn’t say boo about the decision to build aroundAnthony Rendon after his late-inning blast and cold-as-ice trot around the basepaths,and Adam Eaton is very hot at the plate this series.
Turner gotblanked in Game 5, we went back to the well, and he went 2-for-5 with a doubleand got robbed of a third hit on one of the worst calls in World Series history,and that includes the called third strike on Victor Robles in Game 5 that was fiveor six inches off the plate. Turner will be out for blood in Game 7 and he cando plenty of damage without blowing the game open, so this play is still congruentwith my “Houston wins” narrative.
Eaton homered last night to tie up Game 6 at 2-2,and he’s had a solid series (.333/.440/.619 with two HR and four RBI) despite goinghitless in games 4 and 5. I love his spot in the order and he makes for a completelyreasonable play at a fair price.
Cabrera has loadsof experience and has been awfully quiet – too quiet – this series and duringhis long postseason career. In 28 October games, he’s hit just two homers andtwo doubles across 104 ABs. His price has dropped yet again, and his last hitwas in Game 3. He’s long overdue for a key hit in a big spot, and since I’mleaning Houston, I’ll need to find some value with my Nats’ exposure.
Altuve is my favorite play in cash games and I’ll be using him inseveral GPP entries. The postseason resume, the ability to hit just about anypitch thrown to him and his utility and aggressiveness on the basepaths makehim the top play for the Astros, though Gurriel (power) and Springer (all-aroundleadoff hitter extraordinaire) are close behind.
I’d include Gurriel as my spotlight value, but I wanted to move him up to make sure you see how much I like him in this game. He mashes right-handed pitching, but opposing managers do not bother to try and exploit the reverse splits by throwing lefties in to face him (because he’s still a 112 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019 with a .242 ISO). I love him here, in this park, facing whomever is on the hill for the Nats at any point in the game. Is it to much that I ask him to hit two dingers tonight?
Springer has 27 DK points in two of the World Series games,and averages over 8 DK PPG in the other four – which includes and 0-for-5 blankin Game 2. He’s essential in Houston builds and isn’t too expensive to fit in hitter-onlyShowdown lineups.
Brantley is still too cheap and I have a soft spot for his dadMickey, who is from a neighboring town. But my analysis here is far from justanecdotal; Brantley was hitless in game 5 and 6 and is without a HR this series,two things that have helped to keep his price down despite his eight-hit tallyin the first four games against Washington. It’s hard to say if this capablecontact hitter will break through with a home run tonight, but his .191 ISO in2019 was the highest of his career, and he was a slightly better hitter at home(140 wRC+ in Minute Maid vs. 127 on the road).
CPT – J. Altuve ($13,800)
UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)
UTIL – T, Turner ($8,800)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,000)
UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)
UTIL – R.Osuna ($4,000)
CPT – Y. Gurriel ($10,500)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,200)
UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,400)
UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($4,000)
CPT – A. Cabrera ($9,900)
UTIL – T. Turner ($8,800)
UTIL – A. Rendon ($9,600)
UTIL – J. Altuve ($9,200)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,400)
UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)
You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!
MVP (2x) – Altuve ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – Turner ($7,500)
UTIL – Cabrera ($5,500)
UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)
MVP (2x) – Gurriel ($6,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)
UTIL – Springer ($9,500)
UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)
UTIL – Eaton ($6,500)
MVP (2x) – Turner ($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)
UTIL – Robles ($5,500)
Goal: 0.50, Prize: 2x — Yuri Gurriel, George Springer, Jose Altuve
I think the Nats pitchers will avoid Alex Bregman, but one of these Houston hitters will end up hitting a bomb in Game 7. Minute Maid Park treats right-handed hitters especially well and these guys could easily punch a couple out of the yard.
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The projected implied totals again have the Astros – who justevened this series up at two games apiece – as slight favorites, with the Nats at3.0 to 3.5 and Houston coming in between 3.5 runs and 4.0. The total is around7, so we should probably utilize some SP here.
Iprovided us with a bunch of pre-gamenotes on this matchup ahead of Game 1, and we’re right back where westarted. Checkthat piece out for more info on GerritCole (DK $16,800/$11,200) who is firmly in play because of his reducedprice, his sustained ability to throw a gem and pile up the Ks.
While Max Scherzer (DK $15,900/$10,600) was the better pitcher in Game 1, or at least finished with better numbers (5 IP, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 20.5 DK FP), I’m committed to Cole here, as I think the Astros are going to take all three of these games in Washington and head back to Houston to close it out in six (just like my Yankees did in 1996!). UPDATE: Max Scherzer SCRATCHED due to back spasms. Joe Ross (DK $9,000/$6,000) getting the start and worth a look as a low-cost GPP mix in.
With therecency of Scherzer’s last start and the Astros hitters a good bunch at making adjustments(especially Alex Bregman, who finally broke through last night much to ourdelight), I think there’s an opportunity to mix in some lineups with Cole atUTIL and an Astros 1-4 hitter in the top spot.
About two outof 10 of my GPP lineups will have Scherer, and five or six out of 10 willroster Cole.
Let’s talkabout hitters we like.
The three Astros I like best tonight are George Springer, Alex Bregmanand Michael Brantley – with some shares of Jose Altuve and Yuri Gurriel. For Washington,it’s going to be Juan Soto, Adam Eaton and Trea Turner, with shares of Ryan Zimmermanand Victor Robles.
The Game 1 heromakes for the smartest allocation of funds for Nats bats, and he’s the mosteffective left-handed bat on the team and a bona fide star in the making. Workhim into at least half of your Nats-focused builds.
Turner’s power-speed combo is a pathway to fantasy points against atough opponent, and you can count on a stolen base if he gets aboard early. He’sstill waiting to break out in this series and I could see a 2-for-5 game withan XBH and a steal.
Eaton went hitless last night, his first postseason game without ahit since October 9 facing the Dodgers, when he still finished with a run. Hehad two hits in Game 1.
We’re rolling with Robles and Zimmerman, who are both $7K or under as a UTIL, and either could be a pathway top both Cole and Scherzer if you’re counting on a pitchers’ duel. These two and Turner probably make the most sense as low-price captain options if you like the Nats and don’t want to spend up for Soto.
Springer had a monster Game 1 and looks ready to continuepestering Nats’ pitching at the top of the Houston lineup. It’s been one gameoff, one game on for him this WS, and today he should be on.
He’s no longer cheaper than Adam Eaton, but he’s cheaper. And he’sstill less expensive than Turner, Springer and Altuve and in a much better spotto drive in runs and connect on a long ball. The ineffectiveness againstScherer ion Game 1 gives me some pause, but not enough to not use him in mycore Houston builds.
Altuve is always a good play, and he’s be part of my Houstonbuilds where I use a closer. He’s still just the fourth most expensive hitterand has the most impressive postseason resume.
Brantley had three more hits last night and his price only came upto $8K for the utility spot. He’s not as cheap as he was, but he’s got a goodtrack record against Scherzer and if he can stay ahead in counts could may theNats pay.
CPT – A. Bregman ($13,200)
UTIL – G. Cole ($11,200
UTIL – J. Soto ($9,400)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)
UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)
UTIL – R. Osuna (3,000)
CPT – V. Robles ($10,500)
UTIL – G. Cole ($11,200)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($10,600)
UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,200)
UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,400)
CPT – R. Zimmerman ($9,600)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($10,600)
UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)
UTIL – T. Turner ($9,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,800)
You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!
MVP (2x) – Bregman ($7,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,000)
UTIL – G. Springer ($9,500)
UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,500)
UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,500)
MVP (2x) – Soto ($9,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($7,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)
UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)
UTIL – Robles ($5,500)
Sample FD lineup (Nats-heavy)
MVP (2x) – Soto ($9,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Turner ($7,500)
UTIL – H. Kendrick ($4,500)
UTIL – Robles ($5,500)
UTIL – Brantley ($7,000)
I have Cole at 7-8 Ks and Scherzer at 6-7, so that put both under for 3x! We did good last night with the Bregman HR, so lets keep it up!!
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The World Series gets underway tonight in Houston, and we’ve got your 10/22 DFS picks for MLB at Win Daily Sports. Lets win some green!
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The game: World Series Game 1 – Washington Nationals at HoustonAstros, 8:08 p.m. EST
Rostering Houston starter Gerrit Cole in the Captain slot is a major priority. Cole started his career in the NL with the Pirates, and these Nats hitters are collectively slashing .227/.265/.340 against him in 97 total AB.
Batters from either side of the plate were below a .250wOBA & xwOBA against Cole this season. His home wOBA, in a hitters’ parkwas just .229. He issued just 19 walks at home compared to 174 Ks for acompletely ridiculous 9.16 K/BB ratio.
Cole has a 0.40 ERA with 32 Ks in 22.2 IP this postseason.He struck out 326 batters over 212.1 IP and cruised to a 20-5 record with a0.89 WHIP and 2.48 xFIP. His lefty-righty splits (2.43 xFIP vs. LHBs and 2.52xFIP vs. RHBs) don’t show any pronounced differences.
Scherzer is fine to pair with Cole in cash games, though wemight try to mix things up a bit in GPPs – as fading Scherzer and picking the rightHouston bats could work.
It’s going to be toughto find the right bats for the 10/22 DFS Showdown, but I have all the confidencein the world we can do it. The pricingis reasonable for a couple Houston bats I’m high on, and there’s a relativelycheap Nats’ hitter that provides the kind of upside we’re looking for in the difficultmatchup against Cole.
The Nats’ third baseman is the best hitter on the team, posting a1.013 OPS in the 2019 regular season. He had at least one hit in every game of thepostseason except Game 1 of the NLDS and provides the most general upside ofany hitter in the Nats lineup. I won’t be 100%, but I’ll have plenty ofexposure in the balanced lineups I build.
If Turner can get onbase, which he’s shown a knack for doing (career-high .353 OBP in 2019), he canget something going. Solving Cole won’t be easy, but the Yankees managed to getnine baserunners (4 hits, 5 BB) versus Cole in Game 3. Turner has power, speedand the patience to get aboard (he’s also drawn three walks in this postseason)against anyone.
The junk-grabbing shuffle he’s doing against certain pitchers is pretty hilarious, and it even has its own Twitter page, but it’s testament to the confidence this young hitter flaunts at the dish. He’s hit a couple big homers this postseason and finished the 2019 regular season with a .394 wOBA – a number that jumps to .414 versus RHPs. Soto won’t be intimidated by Cole and stands as good a shot as any to take him deep, so I’ll be including him on my short list of Nats hitters that have what can be considered a “favorable” matchup – favorable being a relative term against a stud like Cole.
Adams will should see ABs for the Nationals – he’s 4-for-17 career off Cole with a HR and 5 Ks. He and Michael Taylor (1-for-6, HR, 2 Ks) are the only Nats hitters to have taken Cole deep. If he starts, Adams is my free square. He’s had a rough September/October, and has just three plate appearances in the 2019 postseason, but he’s had more ABs against Cole than anyone else except Asdrubal Cabrera. He’s also got a history of some October clout on his resume.
Otheroptions: Howie Kendrick (DK $11,400/$7,600), Adam Eaton (DK $8,100/$5,400),Victor Robles (DK $7,800/$5,200), Kurt Suzuki (DK $7,500/$5,000), MichaelTaylor (DK $6,600/$4,400)
Bregman’s bat was pretty quiet during the Yankees series, but I expect it to come alive in the World Series for two reasons: First, the Nationals pitchers – Scherzer especially – will challenge the AL MVP candidate a lot more than New York did. Secondly, Bregman only hit one homer in the postseason (against the Rays), but he’s carrying a .435 OBP through 11 games this October and sporting a wRC+ of 139 during that span. That tells me there’s nothing wrong with his plate approach or his bat.
The value we’re gettingon Correa is worth noting, as is the fact that he popped a couple homers in theALCS. The last couple days have offered him a chance to rest his ailing back,and as I mentioned before, the Nats pitchers are going to challenge Houstonhitters in ways that the Yankees didn’t have to – based on their elite bullpen.We forget about him because Houston is so loaded with talent, but Correa has a114 wRC+ in 181 postseason plate appearances, and he’s a 25-year-old in the primeof his career.
The Game 6 hero is riding a wave into the World Series and should draw considerable ownership based on his game-winning efforts against the Bronx Bombers. He’s capable of filling up the state sheet with runs, hits and SBs, not to mention the occasional two-run walk-off homer. Pricing is more than fair and I’ll have some shares, but my ownership on Bregman and Correa might be a little higher.
TheDK pricing algorithm seems to giving way too much credence to Brantley’spostseason numbers, which are admittedly weak from a career standpoint(.224/.293/.269 slash in 75 plate appearances). He’s carrying a respectable .340OBP this October despite struggling against a slew of excellent Yankees pitchers,but he’s done quite well in a pretty large BvP sample against Scherzer,slashing .341/.367/.636 in 44 career ABs with eight doubles and a HR. The restof the Astros have faced Mad Max 11 times or fewer, but Brantley feels like thefree square on Houston, especially bating out of the 3-hole. He’s my favoritevalue bat in the Showdown.
Other10/22 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $9,000/$6,000), George Springer (DK $13,500/$9,000),Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000), Yordan Alvarez ($10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick(DK $6,600/$4,400)
Here we can just load upon Astros hitter and pick or (or two, in some cases) Nats hitters to meetrequirements and/or get a little bit squirrely.
Total Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x
Bregman, Brantley and Soto
I like these three for their matchups, though Brantley is a bit of a wild card. You can take the easy money with a 2x win if one of these guys goes deep, or count on two dingers to get 4x. Good luck!
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The 10/12 DFS MLB Two-Game Slate is about the Nationals seeking to move one step closer to really loving Life After Bryce (WAS @ STL, 4:08 ET, FS1) while Act 1 of Clash of the Titans goes down in H-Town (NYY @ HOU, 8:08 ET, FOX).
Showdown and Hitting picks follow, and I’m pretty sure we won’t forget the four starting hurlers in question.
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MVP/Captain (2X)
Trea Turner, SS, WAS (DK $14700, FD $9500)
Runs will be at a premium today, so I’ll go with the one player capable of creating runs on his own. Four of Turner’s eight postseason hits are for extra bases, and I feel today’s the day he becomes aggressive on the basepaths.
All-Star (1.5X)
Adam Eaton, OF, WAS (DK $7600, FD $7000)
Eaton has a great track record against Cards starter Adam Wainright, having recorded a .545 batting average (6-for-11) with a homer and a 1.455 OPS. Yes, he’s scuffling thus far in the postseason (.167 batting average, .560 OPS), but the thought of hitting Wainright is the wake-up call his bat needs.
Utility
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS (DK $7000, FD $6500)
Like Eaton, Zimmerman has a strong record against Wainright. In 34 career at-bats, Zimmerman has hit .353 with a pair of homers and a 1.048 OPS. He’s facing Wainright at a time where Zimmerman has five hits in his last three games while showing there’s still some pop left in his bat with a homer and a double among his hits.
Utility
Tommy Edman, 3B, STL (DK $9000, FD $7000)
You’re going to be hard-pressed to find anyone in the Cards lineup with success against Max Scherzer, but Edman — albeit a brief sample — is an exception, having gone 2-for-3 with a homer off the Nats ace. He was hitless in Game 1 yet had four hits in the previous two games. Edman is more dominant at home, where he’s posted a .959 OPS with four homers and 26 runs scored at Busch Stadium.
Utility
Yadier Molina, C, STL (DK $4400, FD $5000)
I’ve had a decent rate of success with catchers in the postseason, so consider Molina a roll of the dice. Molina is hitting just .130 thus far in the playoffs but there’s a feeling he can pay off here this afternoon. Sometimes, you have to play a hunch, and at this low a salary, I’ll take my chances.
MVP/Captain (2X)
George Springer, OF, HOU (DK $15,000, FD $8000)
One of a handful of Astros who have hit well against Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka, Springer has two homers and a 1.126 OPS in 14 at-bats against him. He also had three hits in Games 4 and 5 in the ALDS, a good sign that his postseason woes have moved past. Springer has a .931 OPS at home and a .998 OPS versus righties. Run with him tonight.
All-Star
D.J. LeMahieu, 3B, NYY (DK $9600, FD $7500)
LeMahieu knows a thing or two about Astros starter Zack Greinke, having faced him 58 times as a member of the Rockies while Greinke was bouncing around the National League. He’s hit Greinke with a .293 average with a homer among his six extra base hits against him. LeMahieu has tagged Astros pitching with a .429/.480/.905 with a pair of dingers and six runs scored.
Utility
Gleyber Torres, 2B, NYY (DK $8200, FD $6500)
Youth be damned, Torres hit a sizzling .417 in the ALDS with four of his five hits going for extra bases. He hasn’t fared well against the Astros this season (.708 OPS) but does have a pair of homers against them. He’d be my early choice for ALCS MVP. Clip and save that last sentence.
Utility
Yuli Gurriel 1B, HOU (DK $7800, FD $5500)
One of the most impressive LDS facts was Gurriel not striking out in 19 at-bats. He’s lethal at Minute Maid Park, where he’s gone .311/.351/.615 with 19 homers. While he owns just one hit in eight at-bats against Tanaka, Gurriel has the look of a silent assassin waiting to strike big time for us DFSers.
Utility
Carlos Correa, SS, HOU (DK $8000, FD $7000)
C-Squared has struggled in the postseason, but the sight of facing Tanaka should make his bat happy. Correa has two homers and an 1.108 OPS in 15 at-bats against Tanaka. He thrives at home (1.034 OPS) and is the one overdue bat in the Astros’ lineup that could change the complexion of this series if he gets hot.
The easy lay-up among today’s pitchers, I really don’t have to explain why, but here goes: 12.69 K/9, 1.72 BB/9 and an 0.94 HR/9. We’re done here.
There’s reason to be hesitant about Greinke after he was lit up for three homers by the Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS. His season total of 0.91 HR/9 suggests it was a blip on the radar, along with his 36.2% hard contact rate.
A solid September has carried into October for Wainwright, who has an ERA of 3.06 at home since the start of the 2015 season. There’s risk with a hurler who has allowed opponents to record a .286 batting average against him since the All-Star break, but Wainwright’s postseason experience will help attract users.
Tanaka has a 2.25 ERA against the Astros this season, yet it was the only time he saw them. I’m not sure I’d want to risk him, even with the friendly salary.
Plug him into the eighth spot, A.J. Hinch. After all, Chirinos does have an .887 OPS with nine homers when placed there.
Going strictly on the track record he has against Adam Wainwright. He’ll be a value play that allows you spend big elsewhere.
Crushed it with a 1.281 OPS in the ALDS. Increased hard contact rate makes Altuve a dangerous presence. If you’re looking at an Astros stack, make sure Altuve is in it.
Damned if his 17.2% walk rate and 12% strikeout rate isn’t the most impressive things of the 2019 season. That 44.7% hard contact rate is lethal.
Career-best .289 Isolated Power falls under the radar due to his injuries. Correa also had a career-high 36.9% fly ball rate and a scary good 25.6 HR/FB rate.
Somewhat quiet in the ALDS, Judge had four hits in 10 at-bats in Minute Maid Park. He’s another overdue bat that will pay off.
He’s homered twice in the postseason despite a tepid .259 batting average.
Friday night aside, Ozuna has mashed it in the postseason, going .360/.407/.727.
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