Adam Strangis Three StriKes: A Preview for 2020
Baseball is roughly about 48 hours away and we’re incredibly close to getting back on the diamond. This season, I’ll be bringing you an article called Three StriKes about four days a week. When I don’t write an article, I will still have plays in the Discord so be sure to join that as well!
So, what exactly does Three StriKes entail? This article is going to be based on strikeout props for that day throughout the season. For instance, Gerrit Cole is likely to hover around 9.5 strikeouts on Opening Day. While we won’t be betting every single prop, we’ll be using some analytics to guide our decision. As a rule, I’ll be betting 0.5 units on every prop and then the same amount on a parlay. The days we hit all three will pay off handsomely. Let’s take a look at some of the analytics and stats that are going to drive our decisions!
Three StriKes Metric – Strikeout % for the pitcher
This one is fairly obvious but we have to start somewhere. Using Cole as an example again, his K% in 2019 was 39.9%. That was the highest among starting pitchers, and led to just 12 starts of his 33 that had single digit strikeouts. Even with a changing of teams, Cole should be relatively the same pitcher and a 9.5 K prop would be interesting.
Three StriKes Metric – Strikeout % for the team vs pitcher handedness
If we were looking for Opening Day, we should look at the Nationals strikeout rate when facing RHP. In 2019, it was 21% and that was with Anthony Rendon. Even though that was top 10 in the league, that mark wouldn’t scare me against Cole.
Three StriKes Metric – Pitch Type
This is one of the more important factors for me. If a team is very good against a pitcher’s main weapons, that’s a red flag with the mid-tier pitchers. It’s a little different with a player like Cole who is elite. We’re not getting elite pitchers everyday so we have to cherry pick the best possible spots. Cole’s main weapons were his fastball and slider. Compared to the Nationals, they ranked fifth vs the fastball and 16th vs the slider. Again, advantage Cole in my mind.
Three StriKes Metric – Last 14 days of stats
This obviously won’t come into play for a bit, but teams go through streaks both hot and cold. There was a point last season for about a month where the St. Louis Cardinals were one of the worst teams in baseball against RHP. I hammered them in DFS for awhile with good results. Noticing the trends is going to be helpful for Three StriKes, even in a short season. It should also be noted that this will not be a main metric, just an addition.
Three StriKes Metric – Game Logs
This is simply going to mean that we look at how the pitcher is doing through the season. If the prop is higher than a pitcher has achieved all year, it’s easy to back away from that particular mark. If the prop is at a point where the pitcher exceeds it more often than not, we’re likelier to be in business on the over.
There will be other stats that pop up through the season. Basically what we’re looking for is anything to give us an edge and make some money this season!
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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