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Max Scherzer

10/1 MLB DFS Wild Card Slate, Showdown, and Prop Picks

5 years ago

written by

It always amazes me how quickly the MLB season flies by. It seems like one day you are studying for upcoming seasonal drafts and the next you are sitting here writing a Wild Card round article. This 10/1 MLB DFS piece will guide you through everything you need to know to succeed for the Tues-Wed slates. With Incendiary’s “Cost of Living” playing in the background, and a hopeful Dodgers future, let’s get this show on the road.

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Pitching

The most important fact to consider when selecting postseason pitching is, they are all top starters. Especially in one game situations. All four pitchers on this slate are viable options, even if the starter for Oakland has not been officially named yet. But, if it is Sean Manaea like we all think, for his salary on DK he is just as much in the mix. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate I would have no problem locking him in while I wait to see what develops.

Max Scherzervs. Milwaukee Brewers (Tuesday)

$11,000 FD / $9,400 DK / $12,600 DK-SD / $18,900 DK-SD-CP

This game could be a lot higher scoring than most believe. The Brewers are striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs this season while coming in 15^th in MLB in wOBA. We do have several factors in play here for this game, the first being that Scherzer’s ERA has more than doubled in the second half. There was serious talk of possibly not having him start this game, but Dave Martinez decided Mad Max’s 1.50 ERA versus the Brew Crew with 10 strikeouts over six innings was enough to give him the nod.

The next big factor to look at is the Brewers themselves. The get a negative ballpark shift playing on the road in Washington despite Scherzer’s higher home ERA. Plus, let’s not forget the monster known as Christian Yelich is on hiatus due to injury. All numbers point to a low scoring game to be decided by the bullpens. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate every starter is viable, especially the Scherz.

BrandonWoodruff vs. Washington Nationals (Tuesday)

$6,200 FD / $6,400 DK / $10,000 DK-SD / $15,500 DK-SD-CP

Much like Scherzer on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate Woodruff benefits from the same positive park shift. However, the Nationals are seventh in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. This season Woody dominated the Nats in his only start, facing them back in May, striking out nine batters over six innings while only allowing one earned run. Keep in mind he is working his way back from injury and more than likely will only pitch a few innings.

Charlie Mortonvs. Oakland Athletics (Wednesday)

$9,500 FD / $8,600 DK

As much as I would love to see Oakland advance here the numbers are really telling me differently. Against the Athletics over two starts, Morton has a 0.68 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings. Much like tonight’s game this one is also going to come down to the bullpens. With the A’s batting .207 over the last seven days Morton is going to feast on them tomorrow night.

2019 Starting Pitching Stats

Name	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Max Scherzer	Nationals	172.1	12.69	1.72	0.94	40.80%	11.60%	2.92	2.88
Charlie Morton	Rays	194.2	11.1	2.64	0.69	48.20%	10.40%	3.05	3.28
Brandon Woodruff	Brewers	121.2	10.58	2.22	0.89	44.60%	12.00%	3.62	3.36
Sean Manaea	Athletics	29.2	9.1	2.12	0.91	41.20%	10.70%	1.21	3.98

Hitting

So, here is the trick to selecting offense on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate, attack the bullpens. With top tier starters taking the mound often it’s that dicey bullpen who ends up surrendering runs. This means we need to look at their numbers. My favorite stat for this is second half bullpen ERA. By this point in the season most guys are wearing out, especially on teams that have found themselves in high leverage situations leading up to this point. Like most Wild Card teams. I expect a lot of pitching changes tonight, much more so than tomorrow night, so I would focus my offense on the Brewers-Nationals game.

Second Half Bullpen Stats

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Nationals	234.2	8.94	3.72	1.61	37.30%	15.30%	4.83	4.88
Brewers	284	11.12	3.96	1.43	43.40%	18.00%	3.99	3.96
Athletics	226.2	10.2	3.14	1.23	41.00%	14.00%	3.77	4.08
Rays	328.1	10.75	2.74	1.29	41.90%	15.00%	3.56	3.8

Stack #1: Brewers versus RHPs

As mentioned, this is the game to stack on this two-game 10/1 MLB DFS slate. After locking in Manaea and Morton for tomorrow night you are left with a remaining player salary on DK of nearly $4,300. With the Nationals having one of the worst bullpens in MLB in the 2^nd half, I prefer Milwaukee tonight.

Don’t let he BVP scare you versus Scherzer tonight. If he finds himself giving up a few runs, or in trouble, he will be pulled early.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Keston Hiura	265	6.80%	30.20%	0.23	6	0.418	159
Eric Thames	397	10.60%	30.50%	0.35	3	0.362	122
Yasmani Grandal	438	16.40%	21.90%	0.75	3	0.35	114
Mike Moustakas	403	9.90%	17.60%	0.56	3	0.342	109
Ryan Braun	332	5.40%	23.50%	0.23	8	0.338	106
Trent Grisham	147	11.60%	23.10%	0.5	1	0.319	94
Lorenzo Cain	445	7.60%	17.10%	0.45	9	0.296	79
Ben Gamel	277	10.10%	29.60%	0.34	1	0.284	71
Travis Shaw	219	16.40%	32.90%	0.5	0	0.278	67
Cory Spangenberg	84	7.10%	32.10%	0.22	2	0.27	62
Orlando Arcia	411	7.80%	20.70%	0.38	7	0.261	56
Hernan Perez	127	5.50%	33.90%	0.16	2	0.24	42
Manny Pina	98	9.20%	25.50%	0.36	0	0.233	38
Tyler Austin	69	10.10%	44.90%	0.23	1	0.232	41
Tyler Saladino	52	7.70%	32.70%	0.24	2	0.188	8

Stack #2: Nationals versus RHPs

Brandon Woodruff as nasty as he is may not go deep into this game. His recent starts suggest maybe three innings. Unless of course they have been babying him and plan on letting him go full bore tonight. Either way, I still prefer the Nats offense tonight over both teams tomorrow night.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Juan Soto	438	18.30%	20.30%	0.9	9	0.414	155
Anthony Rendon	475	11.40%	12.40%	0.92	2	0.411	153
Howie Kendrick	244	7.80%	12.70%	0.61	1	0.385	136
Trea Turner	441	7.50%	20.40%	0.37	27	0.36	120
Adam Eaton	499	10.60%	15.60%	0.68	11	0.342	108
Asdrubal Cabrera	374	10.20%	22.20%	0.46	3	0.332	99
Kurt Suzuki	237	7.20%	11.40%	0.63	0	0.319	93
Victor Robles	458	5.90%	23.60%	0.25	16	0.314	90
Matt Adams	270	7.00%	35.20%	0.2	0	0.314	89
Brian Dozier	346	12.40%	22.30%	0.56	2	0.312	88
Gerardo Parra	232	6.90%	19.80%	0.35	6	0.291	76
Ryan Zimmerman	137	9.50%	19.70%	0.48	0	0.277	65
Yan Gomes	273	8.40%	25.30%	0.33	2	0.275	64
Michael A. Taylor	57	7.00%	36.80%	0.19	5	0.26	54
Wilmer Difo	115	9.60%	18.30%	0.52	0	0.254	50

Stack #3: Rays versus LHPs

The numbers suggest the Wednesday games will be lower scoring. For the simple reason I see more innings coming out of Morton in this one, the Rays take precedent over the A’s. There will be more bullpen exposure here, pure and simple.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Tommy Pham	197	18.80%	17.80%	1.06	8	0.407	161
Yandy Diaz	117	12.00%	21.40%	0.56	1	0.402	158
Travis d’Arnaud	150	8.70%	21.30%	0.41	0	0.362	130
Eric Sogard	120	9.20%	18.30%	0.5	2	0.353	122
Michael Brosseau	73	4.10%	23.30%	0.18	0	0.347	120
Austin Meadows	177	5.10%	29.90%	0.17	2	0.346	120
Guillermo Heredia	124	6.50%	23.40%	0.28	0	0.337	114
Kevin Kiermaier	130	3.80%	21.50%	0.18	5	0.332	110
Avisail Garcia	177	7.90%	22.60%	0.35	0	0.328	107
Jesus Aguilar	145	12.40%	22.10%	0.56	0	0.303	86
Daniel Robertson	96	10.40%	28.10%	0.37	1	0.299	88
Brandon Lowe	68	2.90%	52.90%	0.06	0	0.282	77
Ji-Man Choi	94	11.70%	23.40%	0.5	0	0.28	75
Michael Perez	11	0.00%	45.50%	0	0	0.269	67
Willy Adames	198	6.60%	27.80%	0.24	1	0.245	51
Matt Duffy	66	13.60%	19.70%	0.69	0	0.245	51
Mike Zunino	101	9.90%	33.70%	0.29	0	0.214	30
Joey Wendle	59	6.80%	25.40%	0.27	1	0.168	-1

Stack #4: Athletics versus RHPs

With Charlie Morton having dominated the Athletics this season, and the Rays having one of the best bullpens in MLB, this really lowers the offensive production possibilities. This places Oakland at the bottom of the list for me.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Mark Canha	340	12.90%	23.50%	0.55	2	0.405	160
Sean Murphy	40	10.00%	27.50%	0.36	0	0.394	152
Matt Olson	374	11.20%	25.90%	0.43	0	0.391	150
Seth Brown	69	10.10%	27.50%	0.37	1	0.379	142
Marcus Semien	545	11.60%	14.30%	0.81	10	0.367	134
Ramon Laureano	346	6.40%	26.60%	0.24	9	0.361	129
Matt Chapman	491	10.20%	22.80%	0.45	1	0.355	126
Robbie Grossman	424	12.50%	17.50%	0.72	8	0.307	93
Jurickson Profar	399	8.80%	14.50%	0.6	7	0.286	79
Chad Pinder	191	4.20%	25.70%	0.16	0	0.28	75
Stephen Piscotty	301	8.00%	22.30%	0.36	2	0.272	69
Josh Phegley	239	5.00%	21.80%	0.23	0	0.266	66
Khris Davis	383	7.30%	30.80%	0.24	0	0.252	56

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DraftKings Showdown

Obviously, you are going to want both starting pitchers in all your lineups. The big decision is the Captain spot. I would find a cheap player that steadily produces fantasy points and reserve this spot for him. This allows you the spending power to pretty much have your way with bats. Here is a screenshot of two of my Showdown lineups for tonight as an example.

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This one seems easy for me tonight. Scherzer, despite having some recent woes with earned runs allowed, still strikes out batters at an incredible rate. This one is over all the way.

Brandon Woodruff may not go deep into this one but will certainly achieve this over in a matter of three innings.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Cash with the Flash Best Bets: N.L. Wild Card Prediction!

Phil Naessens 5 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Cash with the Flash Best Bets is back for another day. giving you our best bets of the day. Reilly Opelka won at +145 for a winning day on Monday and we await the results from the Mikhail Kukushkin-Fabio Fognini result to see how much Cash with the Flash Best Bets won for our subscribers on Monday.C...

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/24 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

5 years ago

written by

The last time I saw this many Top Guns in one night I was at the Movie Theater watching Tom Cruise. So, with Gorilla Biscuits “Start Today” playing in the background on this 9/24 MLB DFS slate, I bring you today’s pitching picks.

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On theDefense

NoahSyndergaard vs. Miami Marlins

$8,200 FD / $9,000 DK

The Marlins have been red hot as of late, how hot? They arethird in wOBA over the last seven days. This scares me about as much as mydaughter Sam throwing a temper tantrum. They are still the Marlins, the same Marlinsteam that is striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs while being inthe bottom of the league in offense. Thor also has had his way all season with thefish with 12 strikeouts over 14 innings. Sometimes the best play is not alwaysthe best player and that is the case here on this 9/24 MLB DFS slate. Lock himin because Thor is going to bring the hammer tonight.

Max Scherzervs. Philadelphia Phillies

$10,600 FD / $11,000

This one was a struggle for me tonight. Gerrit Cole is the obvious cash cow but for the price I just feel that you can get close enough numbers from other starters, without paying the highest salary on the board.

Next was Mike Clevinger, easy matchup, seems great right? The White Sox are the number one team offensively over the last seven days, why take a chance this continues tonight? This leaves Max Scherzer on this 9/24 MLB DFS slate.

The Phillies are striking out 23.2 percent of the timeversus RHPs with a subpar .315 wOBA. Over the last seven days they have a wRC+of 65, which has little chance of climbing tonight in this matchup. Scherzerthis season facing the Phils has a 0.75 ERA over 12 innings while striking out19. Mad Max should go totally beyond the Terrordome tonight in this cakematchup.

MadisonBumgarner vs. Colorado Rockies

$8,600 FD / $8,200 DK

Looking for a high upside one-two punch on DK for this 9/24 MLB DFS slate? Well you just found the battle of the splits. The Rockies are 29^th in MLB on the road in offense while striking out 23.4 percent of the time versus LHPs. Meanwhile, Bumgarner’s home ERA is 2.80 versus his 5.29 ERA on the road. With splits both lining up here it feels like this one is a gift from stars at his price.

JeffHoffman vs. San Francisco Giants

$6,500 FD / $4,800 DK

I am sad to say there is no magic split here, Hoffman is generally just as bad outside of Colorado as he is in. But, for the price on DK it makes a strong argument for large field GPP play. The Giants are striking out 23.6 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low .303 wOBA. Over the last seven days they have generated a wRC+ of 63, which is embarrassing. Don’t expect miracles here on this 9/24 MLB DFS slate but it is reasonable to expect 12-to-18 fantasy points on DK.

Today’s Pitching Stats

Name	Team	W	L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Max Scherzer	Nationals	10	7	166.1	12.61	1.73	0.87	40.60%	10.70%	2.81	2.92
Noah Syndergaard	Mets	10	8	185.2	9.02	2.33	1.07	47.60%	12.80%	4.22	3.93
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	9	9	200.2	8.7	1.84	1.21	35.80%	11.60%	3.86	4.34
Jeff Hoffman	Rockies	2	6	61.2	8.9	4.09	2.63	35.50%	23.40%	6.71	5.29

On the Attack

MitchKeller vs. Chicago Cubs

It feels like a Cubs kind of night. The last time Keller faced Chicago he allowed six earned runs over 4 1/3 innings. The Cubbies are on the ropes here, its basically win every game, or go home. Stack away!

Chicago Cubs vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+
Anthony Rizzo	457	12.30%	14.20%	0.86	4	0.418	0.551	0.969	0.406	152
Kris Bryant	505	10.10%	23.20%	0.44	3	0.37	0.495	0.866	0.366	126
Willson Contreras	309	9.10%	24.60%	0.37	1	0.346	0.513	0.859	0.358	120
Kyle Schwarber	470	11.90%	25.10%	0.47	2	0.338	0.538	0.876	0.358	120
David Bote	255	13.30%	24.70%	0.54	3	0.38	0.449	0.829	0.352	116
Jason Heyward	462	12.80%	17.30%	0.74	8	0.366	0.472	0.838	0.352	116
Nicholas Castellanos	536	5.80%	23.50%	0.25	2	0.323	0.493	0.816	0.34	109
Victor Caratini	214	10.30%	21.00%	0.49	1	0.346	0.457	0.803	0.339	108
Ian Happ	101	9.90%	22.80%	0.43	2	0.307	0.467	0.774	0.323	97
Robel Garcia	52	5.80%	40.40%	0.14	0	0.269	0.5	0.769	0.311	90
Jonathan Lucroy	216	9.70%	14.40%	0.68	0	0.333	0.378	0.711	0.31	93
Nico Hoerner	51	5.90%	13.70%	0.43	0	0.314	0.438	0.751	0.31	89
Ben Zobrist	134	10.40%	12.70%	0.82	0	0.351	0.342	0.693	0.306	86
Albert Almora Jr.	241	4.10%	16.20%	0.26	2	0.284	0.442	0.726	0.299	82
Addison Russell	167	6.60%	21.60%	0.31	2	0.301	0.404	0.705	0.298	81

Anthony Kay vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles bats are very unpredictable but go off often.Kay has surrendered nine earned runs in his last 14 innings pitched. In a smallpark like Toronto I am going all in on O’s tonight.

Baltimore Orioles vs. LHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+
Hanser Alberto	224	2.70%	11.20%	0.24	2	0.415	0.537	0.952	0.402	151
Trey Mancini	215	10.20%	20.90%	0.49	0	0.367	0.545	0.913	0.377	135
Renato Nunez	217	6.50%	19.40%	0.33	0	0.327	0.51	0.837	0.345	113
Pedro Severino	155	6.50%	21.30%	0.3	0	0.323	0.49	0.812	0.339	109
Anthony Santander	145	4.80%	25.50%	0.19	1	0.31	0.5	0.81	0.336	107
D.J. Stewart	42	4.80%	14.30%	0.33	1	0.357	0.375	0.732	0.319	95
Jonathan Villar	243	6.60%	26.70%	0.25	9	0.311	0.435	0.746	0.314	93
Richie Martin Jr.	160	5.60%	21.90%	0.26	6	0.291	0.338	0.629	0.273	65
Rio Ruiz	73	5.50%	24.70%	0.22	0	0.292	0.343	0.635	0.273	65
Dwight Smith Jr.	109	8.30%	29.40%	0.28	3	0.275	0.347	0.622	0.268	62
Mark Trumbo	17	5.90%	17.60%	0.33	0	0.235	0.375	0.61	0.255	53
Mason Williams	10	10.00%	30.00%	0.33	1	0.3	0.222	0.522	0.243	45
Chance Sisco	24	12.50%	37.50%	0.33	0	0.292	0.105	0.397	0.219	28
Steve Wilkerson	127	5.50%	35.40%	0.16	0	0.236	0.228	0.464	0.212	23
Chris Davis	68	8.80%	44.10%	0.2	0	0.221	0.23	0.45	0.205	19

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick – Play These Picks Now and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Although Randal Grichuk has struggled this season versus Bundy going 1-for-9, he has picked it up as of late with three home runs over his last seven days. He is dialing in and I see no reason why that does not continue tonight. Over here for sure.

Trey Mancini is 2-for-2 this season off of Kay, and I know that is not much to go on. Right handed hitters are also batting .283 this season versus Kay, seems easy enough for Trey. Have I said over yet?

Madbum is facing a Rockies team tonight that strikes out a ton versus LHPs, and he has easily reached this number in both home starts this season facing the Rocks. Over, over, and over.

The Giants are a difficult team at times to rack up strikeouts against. Hoffman has a hard enough time against easy prey, I am going under here all the way.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/13 DFS Pitching Picks: Cole Seeks K.C. Masterpiece

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Two elite arms on Friday’s schedule are Cash Game worthy. There’s at least four pitchers who sit on the cusp of CG status. However, the 9/13 DFS Pitching Picks is most intrigued by the punt option.

I think I made myself sick with that thought.

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9/13 DFS Pitching Picks – Cash Game Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, HOU at KC

DK ($12,200), FD ($12,000)

Sunday’s 76-point performance was the 13th straight start that Cole has scored at least 40 points at FanDuel. He’s averaged at least 52 FD points in his last five starts. Cole also enters tonight with at least 10 strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts and is just 19 Ks away from the 300 mark. Oddly enough, the Royals are one the few teams he’s slipped against this season, allowing four earned runs over 6.1 innings in his only previous appearance them. He did happen to fan nine before departing.

Cole is striking a sick, sick, sick 39.4% of the batters he’s faced along with 6.53 K/BB rate. He’s dropped his xFIP to 2.51 with SIERA of 2.67. Only eight pitchers have a better DRA- (Deserved Run Average Minus) than Cole’s 2.64. Kansas City’s projected lineup will have at least four players with better than 100 strikeouts this season with only three with above-average Deserved Runs Created+ Even with Jorge Soler’s 43 homers and Hunter Dozier’s breakout campaign, the Royals are lagging near the bottom of the American League in most offensive categories while also playing in a park that is strongly tilted toward pitchers.

In short, Cole’s easily the best Cash Game arm on the night. The Ks will be there in spades.

Max Scherzer, WAS vs. ATL

DK ($10,900), FD ($10,200)

Scherzer still put up 52 points for his FanDuel users despite pitching just six innings. He reportedly “felt good” during a bullpen session on Tuesday, which is good news as he faces a Braves team that he limited to two hits and one earned run when he pitched in Atlanta last Sunday.

Only four pitchers — including teammate Stephen Strasburg — has a better PWARP than Scherzer’s 5.72. He leads all qualified starters with a 2.28 FIP and has lowed his BB/9 to a career-low 1.75. He has allowed a homer in four straight starts, but continues to fan batters at a 35% rate. What makes him almost a stone lock for Cash Game consideration every time out is also his ability to induce grounders (41.6%) better than he allows fly balls (38%), an underrated trait in this offensive frenzy of a season. The Braves offer an imposing lineup, yet Scherzer has held opponents to a .218 batting average while posting a 114:20 K:BB rate at home.

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9/13 DFS Pitching Picks – GPP Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at NYM

DK ($11,900), FD ($11,700)

Kershaw has been a Cash Game letdown of late, finishing with a combined 18.05 FanDuel points in his last two starts. With the NL West already clinched, there’s also the likelihood that the Dodgers could ease Kershaw’s workload. Those two reasons are why I can’t put Kershaw into a Cash Game format. He’s also lost his last three starts, approaching the 100-pitch count in his last two despite not reaching the sixth inning.

Blip or not, Kershaw has been hittable in his last two starts, allowing eight earned runs and three homers. The strikeouts are still there (12 over nine innings), yet his FB/GB rate has been 24:15, quite unusual for a hurler who has a 48.3% GB rate and allows fly balls at a 33.1% clip. The Mets did tag him for 10 hits and three earned runs over six innings on May 27. That memory also offers another reason why Kershaw is sitting at GPP status. The cost is too damn high to expect him to suddenly have his A-stuff when he’s been hovering around D+ of late.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. LAD

DK ($10,400), FD ($9,400)

Like his equally high-profile mound opponent, Syndergaard has been erratic of late. His ERA is above 4.00 for the first time since July 30 after allowing four earned runs over five innings against the Phillies last Sunday. It feels like Syndergaard has a brilliant outing only to have a letdown the following start. He pitched seven shutout innings against the Giants in his previous start before the Phils. However, he had come off of allowing nine earned runs in three innings against the White Sox.

Syndergaard is keeping the ball down (32.9% fly ball rate), a huge trait when facing Dodgers lumber. That’s allowed him to maintain an 11.8% HR/FB rate, a number further enhanced by the fact Syndergaard has allowed a 30% hard contact rate to opposing batters. There’s also the issue of who’s behind the plate. Syndergaard wants either Tomas Nido or Rene Rivera to catch him, but the Mets may go with Wilson Ramos’ offense rather than either of the two defensive-minded backstops. If Syndergaard gets his wish, he might border on Cash Game, but is best suited here.

Luis Castillo, CIN at ARI

DK ($10,500), FD ($10,400)

Consider this striking while the iron is hot. Castillo gets a reeling Diamondbacks offense that managed just four runs in losing all four critical games at the Mets. Prior to Thursday, Arizona was a hitting a combined .199/.290/.321 over the previous six games, averaging over 10 batters’ strikeouts per game.

Castillo has four straight starts of at least 20 points at DraftKings and should be a solid play tonight. He has struck out 29 batters in his last 19.2 innings and offers an odd stat: Castillo has a very low 26.7% fly ball rate but has an 18% HR/FB rate. Don’t let that bother you when considering Castillo tonight. He could be one of higher scoring pitchers on the evening.

Charlie Morton, TB at LAA

DK ($9,800), FD ($9,990)

Morton has bounced back nicely since being smoked by the Astros on August 27. Since then, he’s produced consecutive starts of 43 points for his FanDuel users. His 30.4% strikeout rate is going to be challenged by an Angels lineup that has the third-fewest batters strikeouts in the majors.

9/13 DFS Pitching Picks – Punt Pick

Sandy Alcantara, MIA at SF

DK ($8,000), FD ($6,800)

Alcantara has quietly ripped off four straight starts of at least 30 FanDuel points, striking out at least seven in each. He’s got an 0.92 WHIP in his last seven starts while holding batters to a .209 average since the All-Star Break. His 4.09 BB/9 rate remains an issue, but the increased strikeout rate makes him a sneaky good play against a so-so San Francisco offense in a heavily-favored pitcher’s park.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/3 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

5 years ago

written by

This 9/3 MLB DFS slate is going to be one full of excitement for sure. We have a bunch of incredible starting pitchers taking the mound tonight, and the prices that go along with it. The good news is with the Rockies are in Los Angeles getting pummeled by my Dodgers, so we have no Coors Field Game. So I bring you today’s pitching picks.

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On the Defense

Mike Clevingervs. Chicago White Sox

$12,000 FD / $12,200 DK

This 9/3 MLB DFS slate is going to make you face some tough decisions as to who you are going to pay up for. I see no way that Clevinger is not that guy tonight. He is facing a White Sox team striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs while posting a wRC+ of 70 over the last seven days. Over his last 18 2/3 innings spanning three starts he has 28 strikeouts while only allowing one earned run. This one is easy.

Max Scherzervs. New York Mets

$10,500 FD / $11,700 DK

If you wanted to save a few bucks in cash games and GPPs, while still having that high strikeout upside, then I would use Mad Max. On DK I would rather pay up for Clevinger. Regardless, Scherzer faces a highly unpredictable Mets team falling in the middle of the pack offensively versus RHPs. The good news on this 9/3 MLB DFS slate is that over three starts versus New York this season Mad Max has 28 strikeouts over 20 innings with a 2.70 ERA.

Jack Flahertyvs. San Francisco Giants

$10,000 FD / $10,500 DK

With so many bigger names going on this 9/3 MLB DFS slate I suspect Flaherty will make a great GPP play at his price-point on both sites. The truth here is he gets a fantastic matchup tonight facing a Giants team striking out 23 percent of the time versus RHPs. Also, over the last seven days the Giants have a pathetic wRC+ of 70. With Flaherty having 16 strikeouts over his last 12 innings I see a ton of strikeout upside here at low ownership.

MikeMontgomery vs. Detroit Tigers

$7,300 FD / $4,300 DK

Ok, so someone seriously fell asleep at the wheel at DraftKings for this 9/3 MLB DFS slate. That $4,300 salary is not a typo. With Montgomery facing a Tigers team striking out 27.2 percent of the time (1^st in MLB) with a .292 wOBA (30^th in MLB) versus LHPs, I would be baffled if anyone did not use him tonight. Besides Monty’s bad outing versus Baltimore in his start before last, he has posted four solid starts allowing only three earned runs over 24 1/3 innings with 28 strikeouts. Hello, McFly? Free Square.

On the Attack

This 9/3 MLB DFS slate offers a bevy of scrub pitchers and rookies to attack tonight. In principle I would rather attack a proven loser than a question mark. So these are my top three matchups tonight which includes one really sneaky stack that may be overlooked.

Chi Chi Gonzalez vs. Los AngelesDodgers

Wow, the Dodgers totally lit it up last night, and I see the same thing happening again on this 9/3 MLB DFS slate. Chi Chi Gonzalez has allowed 19 earned runs over his last four starts, and three were on the road dispelling the Coors Field question. With the Dodgers posting a whopping .356 wOBA and wRC+ of 115 versus RHPs, this will be a highly owned stack tonight in cash games and GPP play. Pretty much all of them.

Notable Bats

Will Smith is currently sporting a .472 wOBA versus RHPs with a wRC+ 198.

Matt Beaty is batting .318 over the last seven days with a HR and five RBI. His price is reasonable on both sites and offers you exposure at a discount.

Gavin Lux is the minimum salary on FD and a low $3,500 on DK. With the Dodgers rookies as of late offering huge upside, and Lux going 3-for-5 with a double last night, I am all in here.

Dereck Rodriguez vs. St. LouisCardinals

Rodriguez has allowed 11 earned runs over his last two starts lasting a total of nine innings. Facing a Cardinals team that can be highly explosive is not beneficial to a quality start for a scrub pitcher. With a lot of stacking options tonight on this 9/3 MLB DFS slate I see the ownership here being lower than normal.

Notable Bats

Marcell Ozuna is batting .087 over his last seven days while not launching a ball into orbit in nine games. With a .363 wOBA and wRC+ of 125 versus RHPs this is a trend that will end sooner than later.

Kolten Wong is batting .600 with a home run and seven RBI over the last seven days while posting a .344 wOBA versus RHPs on the season.

Dexter Fowler currently has a .336 wOBA versus RHPs and is seven-for-eight in his last two games.

Mitch Keller vs. Miami Marlins

Now this is a real reach here. The Marlins are deplorable versus both RHPs, and LHPs. But every now and again, they come out and put up some runs. Now this is purely a super risky boom-or-bust GPP play tonight that if it pays off will net you cheap bats with super low ownership. With the Fish facing a flop of a starting pitcher like Keller. who has allowed 15 earned runs over his last three starts facing much better opponents, this is quite viable. Regardless, on this 9/3 MLB DFS slate with a lot of options, I am getting sneaky.

Notable Bats

Garrett Cooper is the best of a crappy lineup versus RHPs posting a .340 wOBA and wRC+ of 113. He generally finds himself batting cleanup, which offers huge upside.

Miguel Rojas returned to action the day before yesterday going 0-for-4. On the season he still has a .317 wOBA versus RHPs while only striking out 13.9 percent of the time. Which is stellar for any Marlin.

Jon Berti has a .317 wOBA versus RHPs this season and offers a bit of upside at what should be low ownership. Especially for the high price on DK of $4,600.

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

I am going with both the overs here tonight.

Kelly should easily manage that strikeout total with the Marlins striking out 25 percent of the time versus RHPs.

Machado is hard to keep down most nights and tonight should be no different. I cannot see Kelly lasting the whole game which opens the door for late inning offense.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/28 DFS Pitching Picks: Cole Lotta Whiffing Going On

5 years ago

written by

If the 8/27 DFS Pitching Picks was Popeye’s Chicken Sandwich, then the 8/28 DFS Pitching Picks feels like the last overpriced microwave “chicken sandwich” at the local gas station.

Outside of another gem of a pitching matchup in Houston and Thor wielding his mighty hammer at Citi Field, the rest of the day’s slate is, well, bad.

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8/28 DFS Pitching Picks Cash Game Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB

DK ($12,000), FD ($12,200)

Cole will draw a high percentage of users, especially in FanDuel where he’s recorded at least 40 FD points in nine straight starts dating to June 30. He’s coming off his third start of at least 60 FD points in this run, a 67-pointer against the Tigers last Thursday. Cole currently leads the Majors in ERA+ with 163, due in part to his ability to humiliate hitters at offensive-friendly Minute Maid Park (.178 OBA). Since the All-Star Break, Cole has been downright frightening, running a 6-0 mark with 68 strikeouts over 47 innings, raising his strikeout rate to 37.3%. Ranked sixth in FIP at 2.98, Cole gets to a face a Rays team that was hitting just .202/.233/.323 before Tuesday’s beatdown where they managed just one run on seven hits. Play. Him.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. CHC

DK ($10,300), FD ($10,000)

Friendly piece of advice: leave Cubs hitters alone if you’re banking on homers from your DFS lineup. Syndergaard has allowed just one homer in his last 54.1 innings, which explains the 28.7% hard contact rate he’s allowed. His fastball has expanded its bite, kicking up to 97.7 mph, as Syndergaard has increased his usage of premium gas to 58.6% of the time. Not quite in a run like Cole’s, Syndergaard has still produced a run of eight straight starts of at least 30 points at FanDuel that includes four starts of at least 46 FP. If you’re looking to save money but want an elite arm for cash game purposes, Syndergaard’s the play. Opponents are batting just .207 against him since the ASB while also allowing three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight outings.

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8/28 DFS Pitching Picks GPP Pitchers

Ryan Yarborough, TB at HOU

DK ($9,300), FD ($9,000)

Man, it’s tough to suggest Yarborough after watching the Astros wear out Charlie Morton and the Rays bullpen for 15 runs on 18 hits Tuesday night. However, Yarborough is going to make more than one DFS’er think twice about a potential Astros stack. You’d think Yarborough’s home/road splits would tilt strongly toward dominance at the Trop, but you’d be wrong. Outside of Tampa Bay, he sports a 2.21 ERA and .174 OBA with just four homers allowed. Yarborough has elevated his strikeout rate to 22% and a K-BB% of 19%. Another reason to be hesitant on Astros bats tonight: Yarborough’s 29.4% hard contact rate allowed. Oh, here’s one more: an overall HR/FB% of just 8.8%. Forget Tuesday night and take your chances that Yarborough will meet a far better fate than Morton.

Max Scherzer, WAS vs. BAL

DK ($11,400), FD ($12,000)

Oh, the risk tolerance here. Scherzer himself said he’s not “out of the woods,” and it showed in the four innings and 71 pitches he tossed against the Pirates in his first start back from the DL. Name value and opponent are the only reasons why he’s suggested here, and while Scherzer’s proclaiming he’s not all the way back, there’s still the prospect of him delivering 35-40 points without getting to the seventh inning considering the Orioles are 20th in batter’s strikeouts and 26th in lBA (.252). B-More is also 22nd in adjusted batters runs (-65.3), making them a potentially nice blend of lousy that goes well with a hurler that has struck out 34.8% of the batters he’s faced. Overlooked in the midst of Scherzer’s clashes with injuries is a sharp reduction in fly balls, as it has gone from from seven straight seasons of at least 41.6% to 37.8%.

I strongly suggest NOT going with Scherzer in cash games. The risk far outweighs the rewards. While hesitant to add him here, facing the Orioles at home makes him more a GPP option.

8/28 DFS Pitching Punt Pick

Kenta Madea, LA at SD

DK ($8,000), FD ($8,700)

Maeda has 49 and 43 FD point outing in two of his last three starts, with a 32 FD pointer sandwiched in between. His K game has shown up in his past two starts, having struck out 18 batters despite pitching a combined 10 innings. Don’t expect him to eclipse more than 85-90 pitches, but expect the whiffs to keep coming as Maeda continues to use his change up as an excellent third complement to his heater and slider. Madea has gone from using his changeup 15.2% of the time in 2018 to 24.2% this year at the expense of reducing the frequency of his fastball (44.4% in 2018, 37.7% this season).

He gets something of a dream matchup in the Padres, who have gone .182/.254/.278 with 2.1 runs per game over the past week. San Diego batters are whiffing nearly nine times per game in that span, making Maeda a sneaky good punt play for the 8/28 DFS Pitching Picks.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/22 MLB DFS Pitching and MKF Picks

Wes Anderson 5 years ago

written by Wes Anderson

The 8/22 MLB DFS slate is packed with some big-time pitchers. Win Daily Sports tries to narrow down your options by highlighting the top DFS pitching choices for Thursday.

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Gerrit Cole vs. Detroit Tigers

DraftKings – $12,000 FanDuel – $12,200

The Astros’ hurler is the top pitcher on the slate. Cole has a slate high 36.8% K% as well as a 2.94 SIERA on the season. And now he faces the lowly Detroit Tigers’ offense. Detroit has produced just a .150 ISO with a 26.4% K% in 2019. Cole should thrive on this 8/22 MLB DFS slate.

Max Scherzer vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

DraftKings – $11,400 FanDuel – $12,000

The Nationals’ pitcher comes off the injured list in time to catch a great matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. His 2.84 xFIP makes him a great play against anyone but against the Pirates, he is a slam dunk. The Pittsburgh offense has a .241/.309/.398 slash line over the last 30 days. Combine that with his 35.3% K% and you have to get some Scherzer exposure on the 8/22 MLB DFS slate.

Mike Soroka vs. Miami Marlins

DraftKings – $10,000 FanDuel – $9,300

In the second half of the MLB season, Mike Soroka has posted a 2.38 ERA. His remarkable performance since the All-Star break should continue on this 8/22 MLB DFS slate. The Marlins have been equally bad in the second half. The offense has posted a measly .145 ISO and an 80 wRC+ in the second half.

Kenta Maeda vs. Toronto Blue Jays

DraftKings – $8,100 FanDuel – $7,800

The Dodgers’ right-hander is a nice value play on the 8/22 MLB DFS slate. Maeda will face an American League team that loses the DH at home, where he has been lights out. He is allowing a .176/.233/.318 slash line at home this season with a 27.2% K%.

Monkey Knife Fight Pitching Props

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For today’s Monkey Knife Fight pick, we are going to do an over/under play from the Toronto/Los Angeles contest. On this 8/22 MLB DFS slate, let’s go over 5.5 strikeouts for Maeda and under 4.5 for Waguespack.

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

7/6 MLB DFS Podcast With Jason Mezrahi, Mark Paquette, and John Laghezza

Jason Mezrahi 5 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

DFS PROS Jason Mezrahi, Mark Paquette, and John Laghezzs get into the full MLB schedule as they speak on the 7/6 MLB DFS Podcast. They break down all the slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. We welcome John onto his first podcast with Win Daily and he drops knowledge that dives deep into the stats behind the numbers.

7/6 MLB DFS Podcast All in on Max Early Slate.

On the early only slate there will be heavy ownership on Max Scherzer and for good reason. Listen to our 7/6 MLB DFS Podcast and load up on Max and let us find the cheap value plays and stacks to pair some bats with Scherzer.

Can we play Maeda as a value Starting Pitcher on FanDuel?

There are a couple quality high end pitching candidates on the main slate with Noah Syndergaard, Gerrit Cole, and Robbie Ray on the mound but we also provide some value options like Kenta Maeda. Take a listen to the 7/6 MLB DFS Podcast and get a game-by-game MLB DFS breakdown for all your Saturday games.

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Thank you for listening to the 7/6 MLB DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily DFS on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily DFS has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. We have channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Pitching/Monkey Knife Fight Picks For 7/6- Push it to the Max

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

The last Saturday of the unofficial first half of the baseball season features the clear-cut ace pitcher in all of baseball, Max Scherzer. It is also a day which finally features all 30 MLB teams playing, though not all are being used on the main DFS slate.

Upper-Tier Arm

Max Scherzer, Royals at Nationals ($12,400 FD, $12,200 DK): Every fifth day we can point to Max and say: “use him in your cash games and forget it”. I do not think today is any different but if you were ever to play the leverage game, would today be the day to fade him? I say no. You have to go back to Pedro Martinez in his heyday, Verlander in September of 2017, Kershaw in the midst of one of his Cy Young season, or a run like this by Max himself to see a pitcher this hot. He was named N.L. Pitcher of the Month in June after going 6-0 with a 1.00 ERA with 68 K’s.

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Middle-Tier Arms

Andrew Cashner, Orioles at Blue Jays ($7,000 FD, $9,200 DK): There is quite the wide price difference between DK and FD. It is almost like FD is daring you use Cashner over Scherzer and take the savings. On DK, I think he is a great pairing with Max for your SP2. Wait a minute, an Orioles pitcher being praised? An Orioles pitcher!?!? Yes, an Orioles pitcher is in a good spot today for DFS purposes. He’s enjoying a rejuvenation at age 32, going 8-3 with a 4.03 ERA in 16 starts. Cashner was simply terrific in June, with a 1.44 ERA over four starts.

Michael Pineda, Rangers at Twins ($7,500 FD, $8,800 DK): Since returning from injury, Pineda has simply been a different pitcher. He turned in one of his best starts of the season in his last outing against the White Sox, when he struck out eight and walked only one while allowing one run on four hits in six innings. Pineda had 25 strikeouts and four walks in five June appearances since returning from the previously mentioned injury. He is certainly a cash-game option when taking the savings from Max into consideration.

Bargain Basement Arms

Chris Bassitt, Athletics at Mariners ($7,200 FD, $7,500 DK): Both prices seem way too low for a pitcher who has had a really good first half. It is almost like FD is now challenging you to use someone other than Scherzer (if you are playing the all-day slate or one where he and Max are on the same slate). Bassitt was very good in his last start as he limited the Angels to two runs over 5 2/3 innings in a win, walking only one batter. He allowed four runs (three earned) over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to Seattle a couple of starts back on June 14.

Kenta Maeda, Padres at Dodgers ($6.700 FD, $7,700 DK): Again FD, why tempt me away from Max! I love to play the all-day DFS slate so that is why I say that. Obviously, if they are not on the same slate, this price seems absurdly low for a guy with a rather high ceiling. Maeda was cruising in his last start with four scoreless innings at Coors Field, certainly an accomplishment, then couldn’t get out of the fifth. He is 6-3 in his career against San Diego

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Max Scherzer Over 9.5 Strikeouts

No Need to get cute here for me. Scherzer has gotten into double digit strikeout totals in four consecutive starts and five out of six. There is no reason in my mind why he won’t extend those streaks to five in a row and six out of seven.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

7/1 MLB DFS Podcast With The King And the Weatherman

Scott Engel 5 years ago

written by Scott Engel

Scott Engel and Mark Paquette get into the full MLB schedule on the 7/1 MLB DFS Podcast. They break down the Monday slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Making pitching decisions will not be easy as there are only 10 hurlers to pick from on a short slate and most of them are not appealing.

7/1 MLB DFS Podcast Pitching Notes

The big question is whether to spend up for Mike Minor on a five-game main slate. No other pitcher really provides confidence that he will deliver a quality performance. Logan Allen is the top alternative so far, but we have only seen two starts from him with differing results.

MLB DFS Podcast Hitting Notes

The Padres may be the best stack of the night, as many of their bats have been hot lately and they should provide good offense against Jeff Samardzija. The Brewers-Reds matchup should also provide a lot of offense and you can build stacks from both lineups.

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Thank you for listening to the 7/1 MLB DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily DFS on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily DFS has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. We have channels setup for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicate to sports betting and one dedicate to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.

5 years ago 0 comment

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Max Scherzer

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9/13 DFS Pitching Picks – Cash Game Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, HOU at KC

DK ($12,200), FD ($12,000)

Max Scherzer, WAS vs. ATL

DK ($10,900), FD ($10,200)

9/13 DFS Pitching Picks – GPP Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at NYM

DK ($11,900), FD ($11,700)

Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. LAD

DK ($10,400), FD ($9,400)

Luis Castillo, CIN at ARI

DK ($10,500), FD ($10,400)

Charlie Morton, TB at LAA

DK ($9,800), FD ($9,990)

9/13 DFS Pitching Picks – Punt Pick

Sandy Alcantara, MIA at SF

DK ($8,000), FD ($6,800)

8/28 DFS Pitching Picks Cash Game Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB

DK ($12,000), FD ($12,200)

Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. CHC

DK ($10,300), FD ($10,000)

8/28 DFS Pitching Picks GPP Pitchers

Ryan Yarborough, TB at HOU

DK ($9,300), FD ($9,000)

Max Scherzer, WAS vs. BAL

DK ($11,400), FD ($12,000)

8/28 DFS Pitching Punt Pick

Kenta Madea, LA at SD

DK ($8,000), FD ($8,700)

Gerrit Cole vs. Detroit Tigers

Max Scherzer vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Mike Soroka vs. Miami Marlins

Kenta Maeda vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Monkey Knife Fight Pitching Props

7/6 MLB DFS Podcast All in on Max Early Slate.

Can we play Maeda as a value Starting Pitcher on FanDuel?

Upper-Tier Arm

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Middle-Tier Arms

Bargain Basement Arms

7/1 MLB DFS Podcast Pitching Notes

MLB DFS Podcast Hitting Notes

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