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Max Kepler

10/7 MLB DFS Four-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s a busy Monday in the MLB postseason, so let’s jump right into the 10/7 DFS picks for the four-game slate and the featured Showdown contests on DraftKings.

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The games: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (1:05 p.m. EST), Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (3:07 p.m.), Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (6:40 p.m.) and New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (8:40 p.m. EST)

SP Strategy and Picks

There should be enough value in the bats to allow us to use my two favorite pitchers in this slate.

SP1: Luis Severino (DK $8,600, FD $8,400)

It’s been about a year since Severino took the mound in theplayoffs, the last time a disastrous outing against the Red Sox in which he gaveup six runs in three-plus innings in the ALDS, but this is his redemption tour.He’s been electric (12.75 K/9, 2.13 FIP) since returning from injury and shouldbe fresh, last pitching in a three-inning,72-pitch outing against the Rangers on Sept. 28. Sevy is affordable and makesfor a fine SP1 if he can throw about 80-85 pitches.

SP2:Zack Greinke (DK $9,100, FD 10,300)

Greinke was 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts after beingacquired from the D-backs in a July trade, going 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA for the2019 season. He even carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning of his finalregular-season start on Sept. 25 in Seattle and shouldn’t need his best stuffto dispatch this Rays team that’s been struggling at the plate and has animplied run total under 4.

Other options: Dallas Keuchel/Julio Teheran (value), Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer

10/7 DFS Hitters

10/7 DFS C: Brian McCann (DK $3,200, FD$2,600)

He’s cheap and has power upside, with a .343 xWOBA against RHPs over his last two seasons. McCann has plenty of playoff experience and already has a couple hits this series. The Braves are a talented bunch and McCann is a fearless team leader. Pivot: Gary Sanchez

10/7 DFS 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL (DK$4,200, FD $3,900)

We’regetting a legendary playoff performer at a huge discount here, and he’s facingthe team with the worst pitching – so that’s a huge reason I’m leaning towardGoldschmidt. He put up somesolid numbers and metrics (145 wRC+ and .313 ISO) this season and is mypreferred 1B on this slate. Pivot: Freddie Freeman

10/7 DFS 2B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,800,3B on FD $3,900)

I’ve toutedhim before in this column and he’s been awesome thus far in the postaseason,with four hits (three XBH) in nine ABs and a homer and 4 RBI. There are someother folks I want to play at 3B on DK, so plug him in at second base on thatsite and UTIL on FD. Pivot: Max Muncy

10/7 DFS 3B: Anthony Rendon, WAS (DK $4,500,FD $4,300)

Plugging in Alex Bregman here is fine, but Charlie Morton should help to limit the amount of damage the Astros do in this game, so I’m using Rendon against LHP Rich Hill. Rendon has three hits in his last two games and Hill isn’t the dominating force he was in previous seasons. With a .289 ISO against LHPs over his last couple of seasons, Rendon — who was REALLY hot when the season started and could be getting going again — has me stuck on him here. Pivot: Gio Urshela/Josh Donaldson

10/7 DFS SS: Didi Gregorius, NYY (DK $3,900,FD $3,300)

When Didi gets hot, he’s a dangerous hitter, and we get him at a very affordable price. His grand slam in Game Two put the contest out of reach for the Twins and gives Sir Didi the requisite confidence to set aside some of his struggles and produce in this circular Yankees lineup. Pivot: Danby Swanson

10/7 DFS OF: Nick Markakis, ATL (DK $3,500,FD $2,800)

Spending down a little more at the corner infield positions allows you some more expensive OF, but I’ll be looking for some value in my outfield and Markakis is the perfect play at this price. He had a double in Game 1 and sits nicely in the Braves lineup between the dangerous Josh Donaldson and lefty-mashing Matt Joyce. Solid numbers against RHPs (.817 OPS, .387 xWOBA over his last two seasons) clinch it for me. Pivot: Michael Brantley/Max Kepler

10/7 DFS OF: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (DK $3,900,FD $3,700)

Stanton is hitless in the postseason and is still scoring fantasy points – largely because pitchers are afraid of throwing him anything near the strike zone and hes drawing walks, even with the bases loaded! The big fella is still getting in good ABs and is ready to bust out facing an overmatched Jake Odorizzi. Pivot: Aaron Judge/Eddie Rosario

10/7 DFS OF: Brett Gardner, NYY (DK $4,100,FD $3,000)

Lets go right back to the well with Gardy, who’s been hot at the plate over the past few weeks and offers immense upside in the heart of the Yankees lineup. He gets us just under the salary line at his reasonable price point and will be looking to finish off this series with the help of his lively bat. Pivot: Marwin Gonzalez/Josh Reddick

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10/7 DFS Featured Single-Game (1:05 EST on FD)

Hitters only – so stack up the best Astros bats and look for valuewithin the more pesky Rays. There’s just a lot of ways to go here, but I’lllikely be using a top Astros hitter in my MVP slot.

Sample FD lineup:

MVP (2x) – J. Altuve ($8,500) or Yordan Alvarez ($8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($9,500)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)

UTIL – Austin Meadows ($7,000) or Yuri Gurriel ($6,500)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,500) or Tommy Pham ($6,500)

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10/7 DFS Featured Showdown (8:40 p.m. on DK)

I may fade the pitchers in this game entirely given the probableextensive use of both bullpens. I’m fine using Severino in the classic format,but he might be a little overpriced for Showdown.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Balanced w/hitters from both teams)

Captain (1.5x) – D. Gregorius ($10,500)

UTIL – N. Cruz ($10,600) or Aaron Judge ($9,800)

UTIL – E. Rosario ($7,600)

UTIL – M. Kepler ($7,400)

UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)

UTIL – G. Urshela ($6,600)

If you’re hell-bent on using Sevy and stacking the best NYY bats,we can go with him at a UTIL spot and use Aroldis Chapman for one of the UTILspots as well.

Sample with Severino at UTIL:

Captain (1.5x) – A. Judge ($14,700)

UTIL – L. Severino ($10,400)

UTIL – D.J. LeMahieu ($9,400)

UTIL – G. Stanton ($7,200)

UTIL – J. Cave ($5,200)

UTIL – A. Chapman ($3,000)

I’d play around with a few different variations at the CPT spot, usingsome inexpensive Yankees bats who are just as likely to come up in big spots asthe more noted sluggers.

5 years ago 0 comment

10/5 MLB DFS Two-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re in the heart of the MLB postseason and looking at some 10/5 DFS picks for the two-game slate and featured Showdown on DraftKings (9:07 EST). Let’s take in some data and find the gems on this awesome Saturday of MLB DFS action!

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10/5 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK & FD)

The games: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (5:07 p.m. EST) & Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (9:07 p.m. EST)

SP Strategy

Starting the right combo of two pitchers could give you a 20-40 point lead over the wrong combo of two starters, and there’s some huge value plays on this slate.

SP1: Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB (DK $10,800, FD $12,200)

For the most dominant pitcher on the slate, you’ll be spending top dollar, though Cole (who struck out over 300 batters in 2019) is much more affordable on DK. With his K/9 upside, he’s got the easiest avenue to 25+ DK points.

SP1 pivot: Blake Snell (DK $7,500, FD $9,400)

It’s hard to trust Snell against this dynamic and powerful Astros lineup. They hit for contact and power and sport a 131 wRC+ against LHPs. He’s super risky even at this price and Astros hitters have had plenty of success against him. He’s also probably not going to go past 2-3 IP, given his short appearances in his previous three starts/opens.

SP2: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY vs. MIN (DK $6,400, FD $8,000)

Tanaka usually pitches well in big games, and he’s been areliable starter in the postseason for the Yankees the past several years (3-2,1.50 ERA/ 3.49 FIP, .162 BAA and 22.3 K%). I like that he’s carrying about a 4-to-1K/BB rate after the All-Star break, even if there’s a chance he gets blown up fora couple HRs early. That would be a disaster for us, but his pivot – devoid of playoffexperience and still a veritable neophyte at the big-league level, is evenriskier.

SP2 pivot: Randy Dobnak (DK $5,800, FD $5,500)

Dobnak’s regular season numbers look a bit like Tanaka’spostseason stats – so he’s worth a look. But the Yankees were having somepretty good at-bats last night and I’m just not too interested in a play thisrisky.

10/5 DFS SP1/2 Combo Breakdown:

Top 3:

Cole/Tanaka leaves $4,100 per hitter on DK (Preferred – mixing in value and stud bats)
Tanaka/Dobnak leaves $4,725 per hitter on DK (For an Astros full power stack and just a couple of the best Yanks/Twins bats)
Snell/Tanaka leaves $4,512 per hitter on DK (super risky but viable if Cole gets less than 20 points and Snell pitches 2-3 clean)

Bottom 3:

Cole/Dobnak leaves $4,175 per hitter on DK (The option if you want to fade Tanaka)
Snell/Dobnak leaves $4,587 per hitter on DK (Crazy talk)
Cole/Snell leaves $3.962 per hitter on DK (No thanks)

10/5 DFS Hitters

10/5 DFS C: Martin Maldonado, HOU (DK $2,900, FD $2,200)

If Maldonado gets the start, he’s probably the cheapest starting bat on the slate and makes perfect sense as a contrarian play the obvious options of Gary Sanchez and Travis d’Arnaud, who’s got four hits in four career AB (with a homer) against Gerrit Cole. Pivots: Sanchez for power upside, d’Arnaud for BvP fanatics.

10/5 DFS 1B: Edwin Encarnacion, NYY (DK $4,600, FD $3,800)

The most expensive 1B is still a bargain at this price, and he’s got multi-homer upside in Yankee Stadium. The Parrot walker has a 121 wRC+ against right-handers this season. Pivot: Yuri Gurriel (1B/3B) at just $4,200 on DK.

10/5 DFS 2B: Jose Altuve, HOU (DK $4,300, FD $4,100)

We’re still on track with our basic builds of Astros/Yankees and the price is depressed on DK. I’m not going to overthink this one, plugging in one of the best hitters of the past decade, postseason included. Pivot: Jonathan Schoop ($3,500 on DK) if he’s starting.

10/5 DFS 3B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,500, FD $3,800)

The Yankees leadoff hitter connected last night and always give you a chance with his high contact rates and ability to punch one the other way. He drew some surprising comparisons to Derek Jeter in an eye-opening deep dive before he even played a game for the Yankees, and I’ve been a believer from day one. Pivot: Alex Bregman ($4,300 on FD), Gurriel on DK.

10/5 DFS SS: Alex Bregman, HOU (DK $4,800)

Bregman launched 41 homers this year in an MVP-type season, including six in his final 13 games. He’s exceptional against LHPs (205 wRC+ and .473 wOBA) and there’s no reason to leave him out of your builds. Pivot: Gleyber Torres ($4,000 on DK), Didi Gregorius ($3,200 on FD).

10/5 DFS OF: Brett Gardner, NYY ($DK $4,200, FD $2,900)

Opposing teams have been pitching the sluggers carefully this season, and guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton may only see a couple mashable pitches over multiple ABs. This has allowed Gardner to bulk up his power numbers (28 HRs and .253 ISO) this season and produce at unexpected levels. He’s inexpensive and will be chalky, but he’s a must-have in your lineup builds. Pivot: Jake Marisnick (DK $3,000, FD $2,300) – I’ll have some lineups with both Gardner and Marisnick so I can fit all these other big bats.

10/5 DFS OF: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (DK $4,000, FD $3,800)

Getting Stanton at this price seems like highway robbery, and while he’s probably going to exit early for a pinch runner or defensive replacement, he can get a lot done in 2-3 ABs. Watching his ABs last night, he looks good and is going to make most of my GPP lineups. Pivot: Michael Brantley (DK $3,800, FD $3,500).

10/5 DFS OF: Max Kepler, MIN (DK $4,500, FD $3,400)

I need some Twins in here and I’m most interested in Kepler, who’s plate approach and batted ball data seems tailor-made for Yankee Stadium. He’s a pull hitter and Tanaka could easily serve up a dinger if he leaves one in Kepler’s wheelhouse. Pivot: Eddie Rosario (DK $4,500, FD $3,600).

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10/5 DFS FeaturedShowdown (9:07 p.m. on DK)

It’s going to be tough to use Cole as CPT and use allprobable starting players, but you can do it.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup with Cole at CPT ($400 remaining :

Captain (1.5x) – G. Cole ($18,000)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($8,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,800)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($5,800)

UTIL – J. Marisnick ($5,600)

UTIL – J. Wendle ($4,000)

I‘m more inclined to use Cole at UTIL and fit in a studAstros bat at CPT (with d’Arnaud as my lone TB bat in the Altuve build):

Sample with Cole at UTIL:

Captain (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($14,700) or J. Altuve ($13,500)

UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)

UTIL – J. Marisnick ($5,600)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($5,800)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($5,000)

UTIL – M. Straw ($6,800) or M. Brantley ($7,800)

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10/5 DFS FeaturedSingle-Game (9:07 EST on FD)

Hitters only, with Springer or Brantley determining if it’sMaldonado or Gurriel in the last spot.

Sample FD lineup:

MVP (2x) – A. Bregman ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – J. Altuve ($8,000)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,500)/M.Brantley ($7,500)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)/Y. Gurriel ($6,500)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks and Picks: It’s Easy to Be Brave

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today we’ll be examining a fine 12-game Tuesday 9/3 DFS MLB slate (one without a super-obvious Coors Field game), looking to embrace the variance, find some compelling stacks to focus on in our lineup builds, and list some viable hitters in GPPs – as well as some additional plays that might be worth a punt or contrarian pivot.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

AtlantaBraves vs. Wilmer Font/T.J. Zeuch

The Braves have the highest implied total (6 runs) on the 12-game 7:05 slate, with the Dodgers close behind. Both Font and Zeuch (the proposed primary reliever who’ll be making his MLB debut) are RHPs — so it’s safe to stack the 1-5 hitters as there are no weak links in the bunch. Don’t overthink this one – the Braves have punished RHPs, are a better offense at home this season, and have plenty of value bats if you’re building a non-traditional stack.

LosAngeles Dodgers vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez

The Dodgers have six hitters in their projected lineup with ISOmarks north of .200 against RHP, including some of the best xwOBA marks on the slate(Will Smith at .487 and Cody Bellinger at .446). Feel free to attack Chi Chi’sterrible splits against lefties regardless of the barely beneficial shift awayfrom Coors. Joc Pederson (who you will have to double check on because he leftMonday’s game after a leaping catch at the wall), Corey Seager, Bellinger, A.J.Pollock and Matt Beaty should be the core of this group.

ClevelandIndians vs. Dylan Cease

It’s been a few days, but the Indians bats came alive last night and knocked around Ross Detwiler, and the matchup against Dylan Cease shouldn’t offer too much resistance. Cease is vulnerable to both RHBs and lefties, so it doesn’t really matter which side of the plate your stacked players hit from – just make sure you’re building around a core of Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado and Carlos Santana. You have myriad options for additional power bats in the heart of the lineup and a bit further down (Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Jakob Bauers), so it might be worth it to build some variety if you’re multi-entering in GPPs.

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Minnesota Twins at Rick Porcello

Boston Red Sox vs. Randy Dobnak

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Matthew Strahm

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Dereck Rodriguez

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Sandy Alcantara

9/3 DFS Hitting Catcher

JasonCastro, MIN at BOS

DK ($3,700) FD($2,400)

We’re looking for some value at catcher given some of the prices of these bigger bats in the stacks we need to fit, and Castro is exactly the type of hitter we’re looking for – a sneaky option with ample power and plenty of bats surrounding him. If the Twins roll out Castro against Porcello, I’d be comfortable with the BvP data (5-for-13 with a HR) and overall against RHP (.476 xwOBA).

9/3 DFS Hitting First Baseman

JoshBell, PIT vs. MIA

DK ($5,100) FD($4,400)

You’re going to get Josh Bell at a very low ownership, and while the $5,100 price seems oppressive, the Pirates still sport a decent implied total and Bell (.426 xwOBA vs. RHP) might fly under the radar in this slate. The Pirates aren’t the safest stack, but Bell stands out as an excellent one-off, especially if you’re steering clear of Freddie Freeman and looking for a more contrarian play.

9/3 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

KoltenWong, STL vs. SF

DK($4,300) FD ($3,100)

Wong is red-hot at the plate, with a seven-game hitting streak and a triple in three straight games (the record is five, by Chief Wilson in 1912). A streaky hitter who’s having an excellent second half (.381/.462/.545 in 42 games since the break), Wong’s got an affordable price tag and could be banging out some more extra base hits from that 2-slot against the Giants.

9/3 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

RafaelDevers, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,400) FD($4,100)

Devers and the Red Sox are a formidable stack against just about anyopposing pitcher, but this is an especially tasty matchup with rookie Randy Dobnakon the mound for the Twins. Since Anthony Rendon and Alex Bregman aren’t in idealspots Tuesday, I’m rolling with Devers and his obscene metrics vs. RHP (.429xwOBA, .247 ISO). He’s never far from a run-producing spot and he’s got all theprotection he needs surrounded by the Boston sluggers.

9/3 DFS Hitting Shortstop

AdalbertoMondesi, KC vs. DET

DK ($5,200) FD($3,100)

Mondesiobviously missed being a part of the Royals lineup, because he went 4-for-5with two runs scored and three SB in the Royals’ 6-4 comeback win against theOrioles on Sunday. He’s facing a LHP in Daniel Norris on Tuesday and he’sclearly recovered from his shoulder injury – and while the price on DK issteep, he’s very affordable on FD.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Outfielders

MattJoyce, ATL vs. TOR

DK ($3,900) FD($2,400)

Joyceis a classic value GPP play because of his power potential and assault on RHP(.392 xwOBA). It’s also helpful that both the projected starter and primaryreliever are right handers – which could give him an extra AB or two before he mustface a lefty out of the bullpen or get pulled for a pinch hitter or defensivereplacement. In a search for some bargains to offset the rest of the Bravesstack, Joyce could be a key cog.

MaxKepler, MIN at BOS

DK ($5,300) FD($3,500)

MaxKepler is batting leadoff for one of the top stacks of the day, so he’s definitelya fly ball hitter to build around despite his steep price tag on DraftKings. He’scoming off a 2-for-5 day in a win over Detroit and is slashing .258/.339/.537with 36 home runs and 90 RBI over 127 games in 2019. He’s an excellent roadhitter (.266/.357/.548) and he’s a real bargain on FanDuel at just $3,500.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. SEA

DK ($4,300) FD($3,100)

It’s always a weather-dependent recommendation to use or fade batsin Wrigley, so make sure there’s not a stiff breeze blowing in before youcommit to Schwarber here. The enigmatic Schwarber does his best work at homevs. RHP (125 wRC+ in 2019, .250/.355/.545 slash), and while he’s not the besthitter in high leverage spots (65 wRC+), that’s a figure that’s bound toimprove. King Felix is not the pitcher he once was, and it’s a fine spot forlefty mashers against him.

Additional 9/3 DFS hitting options (by position):

C: Carson Kelly, Chris Herrmann (value)

1B: Anthony Rizzo, Matt Olson

2B: Brock Holt (value), Eduardo Escobar

3B: Matt Carpenter, Abraham Toro

SS: Corey Seager, Nick Ahmed

OF: Matt Beaty, Dexter Fowler, Nick Castellanos, Adam Jones. Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For September 1

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

This Sunday September 1st slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Catcher: UPDATE: NOT STARTING Mitch Garver ($3,300 FD) has five hits and three home runs in his last two games. He is slashing .429/ 1.143 ISO over the last seven days. He takes on the Detroit Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull and his deceptive 4.18 ERA. As the season has progressed, Turnbull has gotten less reliable. In August he touts a 6.55 ERA. He has given up at least one (usually more) runs in every game he has pitched in since June 11th. In his last eight innings he has given up nine runs. Garver is in a fantastic MLB DFS spot to keep his elite run alive.

Catcher Value: Jason Castro, Robinson Chirinos

First Base: Yuli Gurriel ($3,700 FD) Here is a reasonably priced Astro for MLB DFS. Gurriel is hitting .247 ISO/.386 wOBA with 22 homers vs righties. He is En Fuego right now and on a nine game hit streak. He should be batting sixth behind five fantastic Astro bats. Gurriel should easily be able to reach double digit FanDuel points today with upside for over 20 if he can send one over the wall. Spoiler alert; he can.

First Base Pivot: UPDATE NOT STARTING: Mike Ford, Matt Olsen

Second Base: Whit Merrifield ($3,400 FD) is my favorite second baseman to exceed MLB DFS value today. He is underpriced and gets and fantastic matchup vs one of my favorite pitchers to target in Aaron Brooks (and the Baltimore Bullpen). Brooks has a 5.79 ERA and gets blown up almost every game he pitches in. Throw out his last start in Washington where he shutout the Nats. I watched that whole game and I blame the Nationals lack of enthusiasm more than Brooks suddenly “figuring it out”. Before last game, Brooks has only scoring over 31 fantasy points ONE TIME since April Fools Day (not joking). Royals are my favorite stack on the day and Whit is going to help lead the charge.

Second Base Pivot: Jose Altuve

Third Base: DJ LaMahieu ($4,200 FD) is on a hot streak with multiple hits in four of his last six games. He hits .286 ISO/.477 wOBA on the season vs lefties and gets to face Sean Manaea this afternoon in Yankee Stadium. Manaea is coming off the 60 day IL after shoulder surgery and I wouldn’t expect him to last six innings here. He has looked sharp in is rehab starts in Triple-A but facing this bomb hitting Yankees squad will be a much different task. LaMahieu should be batting lead off and has not put up a goose egg in his last eight starts. He feels safe with big MLB DFS upside today.

Third Base Pivot: Miguel Sano, Hunter Dozier, Matt Chapman

Shortstop: Alex Bregman ($4,200 FD) I really like the Astros today but the price of all the bats is making it difficult to stack them. He hits .259 ISO/.395 wOBA with 21 home runs. He is batting cleanup and no matter which pitcher Toronto chooses to follow Font (Gaviglio or Godley), Bregman is a solid play at shortstop. He is always contributing. Bregman has not put up a zero in the box score since August 2nd. That alone is impressive. He is safe.

Shortstop Pivots: Adalberto Mondesi, Trea Turner, Marcus Semien

Outfield: Aaron Judge ($4,400 FD) is possibly the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He has a home run in six of his last eight games. He is absolutely locked in. He faces Sean Manaea in his first start since his shoulder surgery. Manaea is not a terrible pitcher but Judge is an elite bat that should be able to take advantage of him, AND the Oakland A’s bullpen. Lock in Judge and figure the rest out.

Outfield: Max Kepler ($3,500 FD) is way to cheap on FanDuel. He should easily be priced over 4K today. He has 26 home runs on the season vs righties and hits .293 ISO/.359 wOBA. He has multiple hits in his last two games in Detroit and at minimum he is getting on base again. The Twins as a team have put up 30 runs combined in their last three games. Today they keep their foot on the gas and Kepler gets his.

Outfield: Jorge Soler ($3,500 FD) is hitting .303 ISO/.373 wOBA vs righties this season and has 33 homers. He goes against my fave pitcher to target in MLB DFS, Aaron Brooks. Easy choice, especially at that price.

Outfield Pivots: Houston Outfield (Springer, Alvarez, Brantley)

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/2 MLB DFS Hitting Picks

Ethan Thiel 5 years ago

written by Ethan Thiel

There are a lot of great spots for bats in 8/2 MLB DFS Hitting so I will help narrow it down to my favorite high end and value bats. I’ve purposely left out Coors Field bats since we already know the drill there. Play them if you can get to them.

Top Bats:

Max Kepler ($4,400 FD). Kepler has a 0.295 ISO against Righties this season and will likely be batting leadoff for a team with implied run total approaching seven. He has faced Sparkman seven times and has hit the ball hard off of him including a home run.

Jorge Polanco ($3,700 FD). Jorge Polanco is next on my 8/2 MLB DFS Hitting list with a 0.242 ISO against right handing pitching this season and gets the same advantage as Kepler with the Kansas City bullpen. Not only is Glenn Sparkman a below average starting Major League pitcher, the bullpen tgives up 39.5% hard contact.

Cavan Biggio ($3,600 FD). Biggio gets a nice 8/2 MLB DFS Hitting matchup today against the O’s tonight. I like all of the “kids” from Toronto because they get my three favorite things in a matchup. They get the ballpark upgrade, guaranteed ninth inning at bats, and a weak bullpen. Biggio has a 0.246 ISO facing left handed pitching and Brooks gives up 42.6% hard contact and a 0.268 ISO to lefties.

Toronto is my favorite stack of the night with Minnesota being a very close second. There are many ways to go with pitching tonight so you can fit multiple high end bats in your 8/2 MLB DFS Hitting lineups tonight

Top Value Bats:

Yasiel Puig ($2,900 FD). Puig will get to face lefty Dillion Peters tonight and will likely bat cleanup. He has a 0.212 ISO against lefties and Peters gives up 42.9% hard contact and gives up a 0.289 ISO to righties. If I am paying up for pitching tonight, I am looking to the other value bats from this lineup as well. Franmil Reyes ($2,800 FD) and Jordan Luplow ($2,500 FD) also hit lefties hard and should do some damage as 8/2 MLB DFS Hitting Picks.

Eloy Jimenez ($2,800 FD). Jimenez has a 0.227 ISO against lefties and gets a matchup with Jason Vargas in a hitter’s park. Vargas throws his changeup 40% of the time and Jimenez has 0.250 ISO against that pitch type. Look for him to take one out of the park tonight.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For July 27

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

This Saturday July 27th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

MLB DFS Bats: Twins are Cruzing

Twins. Look, I am 100% sold on the Twins today for my MLB DFS stacks. If they don’t deliver, so be it. I will break down the players below. They face off against Ivan Nova, who has a 5.94 ERA and is very likely to give up multiple homers (again) today. The Twins are En Fuego right now and I will take as many as I can get.

Position Rankings and Values

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Catcher: Mitch Garver ($3,600 FD; $5,400 DK) boasts a .322 IS0 and .395 wOBA vs right handed pitchers. I am expecting the Twins to put on an absolute show and Garver should be a part of it. Ivan Nova is in for a bludgeoning tonight. In his last six games he has given up eight home runs. That is not what you want if you are the White Sox and about to face the electric Minnesota bats. The Twins may be the hottest team in MLB right now and I can not wait to attack this matchup

Catcher Value: Tyler Flowers ($2,400 FD; $3,500 DK) will face off against Zach Eflin, who has given up 16 runs combined over his last three starts. That’s a lot. Flowers is hitting .237 ISO/ 369 wOBA vs Righties and will be hitting behind a Braves squad who absolutely has owned Zach Eflin.

Note: If McCann is in the lineup I would play him too. (9 homers/.204 ISO/.359 wOBA)

First Base Stud: Freddie Freeman ($4,100 FD; $5,200 DK) brings his All-Star swing to Philly today hitting .273 ISO/.425 wOBA vs right handed pitchers. As mentioned above, Zach Eflin is struggling lately and Freddie Freeman is not the one who is going to help him break out of his slump. The Braves are in a spot today where they can put up plenty of runs to get the W and keep the lineup turning over .

First Base Value Eric Hosmer ($3,000 FD; $3,900 DK) is the best of the cheap First Basemen. I don’t see myself having to go this cheap at such a crucial position but wanted to recommend a punt. Opposing Pitcher Shaun Anderson struggles more with the long ball vs. Lefties than Righties. Hosmer has 13 homers off righties this season, batting .289/.462 SLG. He is worth a stab if you can to pay up.

Second Base: Jose Altuve ($4,200 FD; $4,700 DK) is finally delivering night in and night out like we have been waiting on all year. In July he is hitting .341/.505 .SLG/.841 OPS with five homers. Daniel Ponce De Leon has made significant changes this year and has not been bad on the mound, but I am siding with the elite Astros to overwhelm him here and Altuve to get his.

Second Base Jonathan Schoop ($2,900 FD; $4,100 DK) will be at the back of the lineup with plenty of opportunities to clear the bases today. In his last 14 games Schoop has only gone hitless twice. He is batting .256 vs Righties with 11 home runs. Schoop is too cheap today and helps me round out my Twins stacks.

Shortstop Stud: Francisco Lindor ($4,200; $5,300 DK) is averaging 18.98 FanDuel Points over his last eight games. He is hitting .344/.533/.897 in June. Today he leads off vs Glenn Sparkman and his 4.67 ERA. Lindor has a small sample size against Sparkman and has gotten a hit off him three times in his six at bats. Lindor has a VERY safe floor and a ton of upside.

Shortstop Mid Range: Jorge Polanco ($3,500 FD; $4,800 DK) is hitting .342/.577 SLG/.971 OPS against righties. He is too cheap on FanDuel and an easy to fit into lineups. All aboard vs Nova.

Third Base Base: Miguel Sano ($3,700, $5,100 DK) hits .264 ISO/ .337 wOBA vs righties. The whole squad should deliver in this spot vs Ivan Nova.

Third Base Value: Renato Nunez ($3,200 FD; $4,100 DK) I repeat, this guy is hitting value every night and no one ever plays him. Nunez has four homers in his last six games and hasn’t put up a fantasy goose egg since July 14th. He has a safe floor with upside which is what we look for in MLB DFS. Nunez is hitting .344/.662 SLG/1.067 OPS in July. $3,200 is joke of a price on FanDuel so keep playing him.

Outfield Stud: Nelson Cruz ($4,400 FD; $5,600 DK) He can not be stopped right now and we love the Twins today. Batting .286 ISO/ .300 wOBA/ .586 SLG with 4 homers in the last two games Cruz is more locked in than maybe he has ever been. Enjoy the benefits while they last.

Honorable Mention: Eddie Rosario is also a good play with Twins stack, I just have Cruz ranked higher in the OF

Outfield MidRange: Max Kepler ($3,700 FD, $5,100 DK) is batting .278 ISO/.375wOBA and hitting cleanup for the Twins. His last six MLB DFS performances go as follows on FD, 25.7, 31.4, 0, 6, 21.7, 41.4. I like the matchup for the Twins so of course I like the guy in the four hole.

Outfield Value: Gregg Allen ($2,500 FD; $3,900 DK) has a .211 ISO and .343 wOBA vs righties this year and is finally getting some more PT. He is on a two game hitless streak, but this is the first time since May that has happened so I like him to bounce back and hit value here today. I do like targeting Sparkman so a cheap Indians OF, It makes sense with my MLB DFS builds. I am hoping for a hit, run and a stolen base from Allen today.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Naquin is another cheap Indian I would consider in the OF.

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Stack Choices for 7/5: Climbing on Soto

Jared Contestabile 5 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Your prime DFS stack choices for the Friday slate.

1.) Boston Red Sox Stack

Gregory Soto is the worst pitcher on this slate and he gets a powerhouse offense in the Boston Red Sox. He has a .390 BAA, eight home runs given up and a 11.51 ERA at home this season. The usual Boston stack suspects are who I want, Betts and Martinez. I don’t mind Devers since Carpenter has been horrible against lefties. I also love Benintendi in this one as I see a nice multi-hit game coming out of him.

2.) Washington Nationals Stack

Brad Keller started off this season very strong and then something clicked and he turned into who he really is, a trash can. On this road this season he holds a 5.08 ERA and a .281 BAA. He also has a sub seven K/9 so a lot of balls are being kept in play. He is equally horrible to both sides, but he does walk lefties more than righties. That gives me more love for Adam Eaton as that ups his potential for stolen bases. Pair him with Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner in this stack.

3.) Minnesota Twins Stack

Surprisingly Adrian Sampson has been really good in Texas and HORRIBLE away from Texas. Away from Texas he holds a 6.47 ERA and a .306 BAA and .604 SLG. Sampson has also been reverse splits this season, so I love Nelson Cruz for a deep ball in this one. I also don’t mind Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and my all time favorite Twins stack tournament play, Max Kepler.

4.) Houston Astros Stack

I’m not sure who the opening pitcher is going to be here, but we do know that Felix Pena is going to follow. Pena has been especially worse against left-handed bats this season (.281 BAA, right home runs given up). I’m especially looking at Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley in this stack. Obviously you can round out this stack with Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS: July 4th Offensive Fireworks Hitting Stacks

Wes Anderson 5 years ago

written by Wes Anderson

Thursday’s MLB action may not include a Coors Game, but there are plenty of offenses to stack in DFS. We have four stacks to target as you assemble your Daily Fantasy Sports entries.

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Minnesota Twins

I am pretty sure the Oakland Athletics pushed Tanner Anderson’s start back a day just so he could help put on a fireworks show. Anderson has a 7.13 ERA this season, while allowing a robust 48.3% hard contact rate. The high amount of hard contact has led to home runs, as he is allowing 2.04 HR/9. With the Twins leading all of baseball in home runs hit, this seems like an appropriate spot to stack some Twinkies in DFS.

Anderson has been awful against lefties. He has allowed a .473 wOBA and 4.91 HR/9. So of course, we want to load up on the left-handed Twins. So our Minnesota stacks will need to start with Max Kepler (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,600). Kepler has an ISO north of .330 versus right-handed pitching. Other Twins bats worth considering are: Jason Castro (FanDuel: $2,600 DraftKings: $3,800) and Jorge Polanco (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,500). These two bats have ISOs above .240 versus righties in 2019.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers’ offense is not normally in a position to stack. In fact, it has been good to our bank accounts to use starting pitchers against them. But this is just how bad the White Sox’s Lopez is. Lopez has a .5.12 SIERA and a low 10% swinging strike rate. He is not missing many bats and this is a perfect spot for us to pick on while we build DFS lineups.

Look to use the Tigers’ offense as a cheap stack to help load up on bats from Minnesota or one of these other teams. But target the likes of Brandon Dixon (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings: $4,300) and Gordon Beckham (FanDuel: $2,300 DraftKings: $3,300). All of these Tigers’ bats have ISOs over .200 against right-handed pitching this season.

Atlanta Braves

The Phillies’ Zach Eflin is not a terrible pitcher but he is not elite with his SIERA being 1.3 higher than his ERA. That means some regression is coming and it likely is coming today. Not only does Eflin struggle on the road with a 4.64 xFIP, but the Braves’ lineup is stacked with guys that crush righties. The Atlanta Braves have seven guys with regular at bats that are posting .200-plus ISOs against right-handed pitchers.

Of course, start your Atlanta DFS stack with Freddie Freeman (FanDuel: $4,400 DraftKings: $5,000). But you can also mix and match the likes of: Austin Riley (FanDuel: $3,400 DraftKings: $4,500), Josh Donaldson (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $4,000), Tyler Flowers (FanDuel: $2,500 DraftKings: $3,600), Dansby Swanson (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,500), Brian McCann (FanDuel: $2,600 DraftKings: $3,400) and Ronald Acuna Jr (FanDuel: $4,300 DraftKings: $5,400). All four of these Braves batters have accumulated at least a .200 ISO versus right-handed pitching.

Kansas City Royals

The Royalsand Indians game should have plenty of fireworks from both offenses and may bea great spot to game stack for DFS purposes. But if you have to chose just oneside, the Royals’ offense is the way to lean. The Indians’ Zach Plesac has a5.01 SIERA and a 5.13 xFIP in 2019. He also is allowing flyballs at a rate of42.4% which has led to 1.91 HR/9.

Use HunterDozier (FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $4,700), Jorge Soler (FanDuel: $3,100DraftKings: $4,000) and Adalberto Mondesi (FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $4,800).These three batters have ISOs greater than .200 against right-handed pitching.

But also, Dozier (.250 ISO) and Soler (.409 ISO) have crushed fastballs this season, which Plesac has thrown 55% of the time.

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MYOTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT WinDaily DFS HASTO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO,DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Hitting and Monkey Knife Picks: Independence Day Bats

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

A strange day for this Independence Day with the DFS contests split up at unusual times and games. And not every team is playing on this holiday? How does that happen? Well I guess Independence Day falling on a Thursday gives MLB some leeway as teams travel to get ready for the upcoming weekend series that start tomorrow.

Catcher:

Jason Castro, Twins at Athletics ($2,600 FD, $3,800 DK): One of the keys to the Twins’ fine season is how well their catchers have hit. At times this season, the Twins have seen three really good hitting catchers on their roster in Castro, Mitch Garver and Willians Astudillo. The first two names in this threesome have hit so well that the third player has spent much of the year in the minors even though he has performed well when asked to.

Back to today’s match-up, Garver played last night so Castro is likely to see his name on the scoresheet today. On the season, Castro has 10 HRs in 111 ABS vs righties and has an OPS of .934. In other words, he is an elite hitter against righties. Castro faces rookie Athletics right-hander Tanner Anderson who is really struggling right now.

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DFS First Base

Justin Smoak, Red Sox at Blue Jays ($2,700 FD, $3,900 DK): Both players chosen so far are extremely affordable to let us pay up for arms and big bats in smash spots. Smoak gets spot-starter Hector Velazquez of the Red Sox and gets to take his cuts against him from his strong side of the plate. For the season, Smoak’s OPS is .904 vs righties and only .572 vs lefties. With Velasquez not expected to go too long in the game and with the dearth of lefties in Boston’s bullpens, he will likely swing the bat as a lefty all game.

DFS Second Base

Gleyber Torres, Yankees at Rays ($3,600 FD, $4,900 DK): The Rays have a great pitching staff and their starter today (Chirinos) has been effective all season. So why do I like Torres today? First of all, he is an extremely talented player on the best hitting team in the majors. Secondly, his road splits are incredible, with a .999 OPS as compared to .782 at home.

Thirdly, someone standing up for him vocally might give him an extra spark. Yankee manager Aaron Boone backed his star player and blasted the A.L. for leaving Torres off the All-Star roster here. A particularly strong quote from Boone: “I think it’s a joke he’s not on that team. Gleyber Torres, not an All-Star? You can kick rocks on that one. That’s ridiculous.” Torres is red-hot, with hits in 12 of his last 13 games and multiple hits in three of his past five games.

DFS Shortstop

Jorge Polanco, Twins at Athletics ($3,700 FD, $4,500 DK): For DFS roster construction, having multiple Twins is probably a good idea. As mentioned before about Jason Castro, Tanner Anderson is struggling. So use Polanco, who has hit in six straight games and 15 out of 16. For the season, Polanco has a terrific OPS of .974 against righties.

DFS Third Base

D.J. LeMahieu, Yankees at Rays ($4,300 FD, $5,400 DK): Here is one of my “big bats to pay up for” written about previously. With as much talent as the Bronx Bombers have, this scrappy player is likely their MVP to-date. He just has hit the ball so consistently well all season long. LeMathieu is particularly hot right now, with multiple hit games in seven of his last eight. If the Yankees do damage in St. Petersburg late this afternoon and evening (which I think they will), LeMahieu will likely be a huge part of the fireworks.

DFS Outfield

Let’s go with one more Twins bat in Max Kepler ($3,700 FD, $4,600 DK). This German-born lefty hits righties very well and will likely bat leadoff. His OPS against right-handers is .915.

An old DFS saying of mine, well just for the past season, is to use Joey Gallo ($4,200 FD, $5,700 DK) at home against mediocre or young right-handed pitchers. The scheduled days off for pitchers for both teams is out of whack due to the tragic passing away of Tyler Skaggs. Griffin Canning starts for the Angels in a hot Globe Life Park where the ball will carry very well.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3,700 FD, $5,500 DK): You may say to yourself, that is expensive for him! Well, this guy is red-hot and faces the uncertain pitching situation of the Red Sox. Since June 20th, Gurriel Jr. has hit 7 HRs, which may have something to do with batting third in the order behind Valdimir Guerrero Jr. Lourdes has Expected Slugging and Hard Hit rates that both rank in the 87th percentile or better on the season. To make a long story short, these power numbers are not a fluke, folks.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Max Kepler/Jorge Polanco/Jason Castro Hits on the Day

Feeling safe? Go for double your $ and the trio combine for five or more hits. Risky? Put a 5X next to your money if they combine for seven or more hits. As you can tell in my writing, I like the Twins bats alot today!

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS!

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Winners and Losers

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

We had a 10-game slate for Thursday June 27. Some lesser known players made huge impacts while other marquee names did not have good games. All points and dollar amounts are from DraftKings.

Winners

Ariel Jurado ($6,700)

Jurado pitched excellently against the Detroit Tigers yesterday. He went seven shutout innings and gave up six hits, a walk and four strikeouts. Jurado pitched well against a struggling team and had a good outing, but do not expect him to do the same thing his next time up in the rotation.

Jurado’s Outlook

Ariel Jurado continued the Rangers’ win streak and bounced back after back-to-back rough outings. His next outing is slated for Tuesday night against the Angels. The Angels are beginning to get healthy and have one of the better lineups when every one is there. Fade Jurado in his next outing.

Joe Musgrove ($5,300)

Joe Musgrove had a great game against the Houston Astros yesterday, throwing six shutout innings and gave up nine hits and five strikeouts. Musgrove has been shaky for most of the past seven start. Musgrove should be sidelined for his next outing.

Musgrove’s Outlook

Musgrove now had back-to-back quality starts after yesterday’s outing. Even though the Astros are struggling, they have a feared lineup that could haunt any opposing pitcher. Musgrove’s next scheduled start is Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs in Pittsburgh. The Cubs are an excellent hitting team and make Joe Musgrove a risky play for his next start.

Losers

Max Kepler ($4,900)

It’s difficult to go hitless when you have eight at-bats but Max Kepler did so yesterday against the Tampa Bay Rays. In half of his at-bats, he ended up striking out. He should get going starting tonight with an easier opposing pitching staff to go up against.

Kepler’s Outlook

Kepler is now 4-for-28 with five strikeouts in his last seven games. Kepler is up to 52 strikeouts in 73 games, so the strikeout number in yesterday’s game was definitely an outlier. Kepler and the Twins head to the south side of Chicago to play the White Sox. Chicago has the sixth-highest batting average against with .266 so with Kepler occupying the top of the order, expect him to get a couple of hits.

Walker Buehler ($8,900)

Buehler had his worst start of the season last night against the Colorado Rockies. He went 5.2 innings and gave up seven runs on 13 hits, which were both career highs. He also had a walk and four punchouts. This was the second consecutive start against the Rockies, where he pitched a complete game. This was the worst start of Buehler’s career but the game was also played in Coors Field.

Buehler’s Outlook

It seemed a combination of familiarity and Coors Field affected Buehler last night. The 13 hits allowed was equal to the amount given up in his previous 31 innings. His next scheduled start is Wednesday night at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Buehler should walk right into your lineup for his next start.

Injury Update

Yankees’ General Manager Brian Cashman said today that he does not expect Giancarlo Stanton to return until August. Stanton was placed on the 10-day IL with a PCL strain.

Kevin Kiermaier of the Tampa Bay Rays left yesterday’s game with right lower leg tightness. He is listed as day-to-day and doesn’t expect to miss more than today’s game.

Trevor Story tested out his sprained right thumb in batting practice and fielding drills yesterday. Both he and manager Bud Black have not ruled out a potential rehab stint for the Rockies’ slugger.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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