The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 2 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see last week’s TNF showdown article.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
We don’t have an obvious chalk play at captain for this week’s showdown, but when the final tallies are in, it’s likely to be one of the two starting QBs. Both Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke have high ceilings and low floors, and while it’s rare that we focus on a RB in the top spot in showdowns, this might be the week to give Antonio Gibson the opportunity to carry us to victory. It’s also a week where leaving a large amount of salary on the table shouldn’t concern us too much.
Giants notes: Even against a solid Broncos defense, Jones tallied 22.38 DK points. His 267-1-0 passing line was inefficient but his fantasy total got a boost from a 27 rushing yards and a rushing TD, also tempered by a lost fumble — something that continually plagues the third-year QB. This week, he’ll be without TE Evan Engram again, and reports of a limited Saquon Barkley could further complicate the Giants’ offensive outlook. While a full-strength Barkley is a player I’d be looking to force into my showdown lineups, I have almost no interest in paying full price for the guy in a reduced role. I’ll have some exposure, but I’m a lot more interested in getting shares of top target Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, who’s done nothing but exceed expectations since he entered the league, even when he’s playing hurt. I’ll also find ways to get some exposure to a seemingly healthy Kenny Golladay, TE Kyle Rudolph, and backup RB Devontae Booker — especially if we get word he’ll assume a much larger workload. There’s a good chance that we get a negative game script where Booker sees a few extra targets in the passing game.
Washington notes: Some of my builds will immediately start off locking in Heinicke/Gibson with WR Terry McLaurin, and I’ll have a few more that add in TE Logan Thomas, a top 10 fantasy tight end who had just three targets last week but should normally be seeing 6-8 on a weekly basis. I don’t view McLaurin as a must-play in this particular matchup, but he does have a high ceiling. If you’re playing cash games, we can probably finalize an ideal build without spending up for the highest-priced WR in the contest. I’ll have the most shares of Gibson, and there’s an easy path to some formidable lineups that start with Gibson/Thomas and then focus on the Giants passing game. In some large-field GPPs where maximizing salary is less of an issue, it’s a good idea to mix in some Gibson/Thomas/Washington DST with a kicker and a couple Giants pass catchers. Dyami Brown saw four targets in his NFL debut but caught just one pass for -2 yards, and there’s always veteran WR Adam Humphries, who I actually liked better with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Still — Humphries and even WR Cam Sims are relatively cheap and could make for a final piece in your builds.
Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar. With Saquon Barkley possibly seeing a reduced workload, there’s plenty of value out there (and a wide enough range of outcomes that don’t prominently feature both QBs having huge days) where you can get a little weird
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. I’ve looked it over and there’s just not a lot there to get excited about.
Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!
We always discuss “getting contrarian” in NFL DFS so it’s about time we posted an article to arm you with some NFL DFS Sleepers. Whether you’re eating or fading this weeks’ chalky plays, here are some players that may help you differentiate in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.
If you read the article and have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter or sign up for Premium Gold to join our Discord channel.
Like usual, it’s another great week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out my Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday.
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The purpose of this weekly article is to identify players in positive situations that the public may be overlooking in NFL DFS. If you’re going to be playing a lot of chalky players like Le’Veon Bell, Alvin Kamara, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas and some other players with ~30% ownership in Week 12, it’s never a bad idea to find a player or two that will help differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field. Look no further than Stick’s Sleepers.
Typing out Trubisky’s name almost made me sick, but here he is. This is a much more optimal play for DraftKings at that price tag – so please don’t fire him up like crazy on FanDuel at $7k.
First off, the Giants’ pass defense ranks 28th in DVOA – yikes. If you take out the Week Four game against the Redskins, the Giants’ have given up 28.89 points per game – which is among the worst in the NFL.
In addition to that, this team is giving up and average of ~23 DraftKings’ points per week to opposing QBs (and ~47 to opposing receiving cores) over the past month! Trubisky’s pass attempts (and execution) haven’t really been there on a consistent basis, but if the Giants’ can score some points in this game, Trubisky should have no issues carving up their secondary and finishing around 20 DraftKings’ points – which would put him at 4x value (on DraftKings) at ~2% ownership.
Trubisky isn’t going to break the slate, but you can easily stack him with Allen Robinson or Taylor Gabriel and barely make a dent in your lineup’s salary cap.
No, Saquon Barkley is not a “sleeper” but in Week 12, he’s going to be under 12% owned… I’m in. I clearly am okay with pairing up Trubisky and a Bears’ wide receiver in my NFL DFS GPPs this week and I really like the idea of running it back with Saquon Barkley and/or Golden Tate.
Tate has a matchup against Buster Skrine in the slot and should have no issues tearing him up. Evan Engram is out with injury again and it just so happens that Tate has had his best games of the season in both games Engram.
Week Six: 6 catches – 102 yards – 1 TD
Week 10: 4 catches – 95 yards – 2 TDs
Tate is going to be the most targeted player in the Giants’ passing game and should continue to thrive in Engram’s absence. You can game-stack Trubisky-Robinson-Barkley-Tate and still have plenty of salary left over for guys like Kamara and Julio Jones.
Kenny Golladay at 3-5% ownership is something I’ll always be interested in. I don’t love the chemistry with Jeff Driskel, but I’m not afraid of it in a GPP format. In terms of “blow-up potential”, Golladay certainly has that (so does Marvin Jones, so this isn’t a lock play by any means) and that is something I look for when adding players into my GPP player pool.
Golladay should see a decent amount of Josh Norman in coverage and that is a matchup I know Golladay can exploit. Can Driskel get him the ball in areas where he can make big plays? I’ll take that risk this week.
Conley hit value for us last week in the inaugural Stick’s Sleepers article and he finds his way back into it this week. Conley may not have 20+ point upside, but I have projected for right around 13 DraftKings’ points. I pick on LeShaun Sims as much as possible in DFS and that is the matchup Conley will have most of the day on Sunday. If he can find his way into the end-zone, Conley should make for a nice salary-saving, contrarian GPP play.
I hate touting myself but last week’s picks were fantastic. Both DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Lockett did their jobs in the cash game section while Kenny Golladay and DK Metcalf went off in the GPP section. That sort of success is all we can ask for and I’m ecstatic to get back to work for this week. With that in mind, let’s get into our Week 9 wide receiver picks.
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If someone’s been good to you, it’s silly to turn your back on them. That’s what we have here with Golladay, as this dude has been making me money all season long. Aside from one dud a few weeks ago, Golladay actually has at least eight targets in each of his other six games played. That’s a monstrous role and it’s clear that Matthew Stafford loves this guy more than I do. He’s done some serious damage with those targets, averaging 18 DK points per game as well. That makes him particularly intriguing against a Raiders secondary who owns a 32nd OPRK against opposing wide receivers, the worst mark in football.
Is this the same article as last week? No, but as you know, I don’t turn my back on players who are good to me. Lockett is just that, as he’s developed into one of the best WRs in football. Averaging 17.2 DK points per game is impressive on its own but his role is simply fantastic. Not only is he averaging 7.5 targets per game since Week 1, he’s also playing on 94 percent of his team’s snaps. That’s awesome for a dude who’s got 23 percent of his team’s targets while posting a 27 percent air yardage rate. The biggest bonus here is this matchup though, with the Buccaneers allowing the second-most passing yards in the NFL while owning a 27th OPRK against wide receivers.
Robinson has always been stuck in crappy situations in terms of his QB play but he’s always kept his head up and produced. That’s been very evident this season, with the Chicago stud averaging 17.1 DK points per game. More importantly, he’s had at least seven targets in all seven of his games while playing 93 percent of the team’s snaps. That’s backed up by the fact that he’s got 26 percent of his teams target share while posting an absurd 41.3 percent of his team’s air yards. Those brilliant statistics are even better when you consider that the Eagles allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
If we like this Lions passing attack, we have to take a shot on Jones. While he does play second-fiddle to Golladay, Jones has shown flashes of brilliance himself. That was crystal clear when he had 43.3 DK points just two weeks ago, one of the best fantasy performances of the season. His role has been increasing recently too, with Jones attaining 37 targets over his last five games. That’s really not far off of Golladay and he too should benefit from this tasty matchup against the putrid Raiders secondary. Don’t forget about Danny Amendola either, who has 16 catches for 200 yards over his last two games.
This is the definition of a GPP play. Anderson is the sort of guy who can win you a tournament or give you a big fat 0. That’s why he’s one of the riskiest plays on the board and why he’s found himself into the GPP section. The simple fact is, Anderson is still the focal point of this passing game despite his lackluster season. That’s evident when you see that he has 20 percent of the team’s targets while being one of the league leaders with a 41 percent team air yardage share. That’s really no surprise when you consider his deep-ball presence and he can easily pop off an 80-yard touchdown on any given play. That outcome is way more likely against the Dolphins defense, with Miami ranked 30th in yardage allowed and last in total defense.
We also like Jamison Crowder on the Jets, who’s averaging a ton of targets with Sam Darnold behind center.
Williams has been quite the disappointment for season-long fantasy owners but he has some serious upside with his current role. Over his last five games, Williams has 42 total targets while playing about 93 percent of the team’s snaps. What’s more is the fact that he’s got 104.1 air yards per game for the year, which is even higher in that recent five-game stretch. That means they’re targeting Williams a lot and targeting him deep. That means a dude who had 10 TDs last season is due for some positive regression and we’ll bet on it happening at this dirt-cheap price tag.
Let’s give you a couple of Williams’ for our punt play section. Preston has found himself as the go-to receiver in Miami and that alone makes him attractive with them losing every week. In fact, Williams has played about 90 percent of the teams snaps over the last four games, which correlates with Ryan Fitzpatrick manning the QB position. That’s actually allowed him to have at least five targets in every game this season while averaging eight targets per game over his last five fixtures. That sort of role is really all you can ask for from such a cheap player and we’re really not worried about this matchup. Williams and the Dolphins face a Jets defense who ranks 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs.
Golladay is averaging 88.5 receiving yards over his last three games and this may be the easiest matchup of the bunch.
Facing one of the worst secondaries is obviously why we like this play but Robinson has at least five catches in five straight games, surpassing this total all but once in that span.
Last week’s article went well but it was nothing special. We got a gem from DeAndre Hopkins but our punt plays did absolutely nothing. That’s going to happen with punt plays though and it’s impossible to get them right every week. With that in mind, let’s get into our Week 8 wide receiver breakdown.
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Whenever someone treats you right, it’s silly to turn your back on them. Hopkins was the star of the article last week and we’re going to go right back to the well here. While the nine receptions for 106 yards and a TD is nice, what I like is his usage. In fact, Hopkins now has at least 12 targets in back-to-back games and is second among all WRs, playing 97 percent of his team’s snaps. Those usage numbers should only go up with Will Fuller out for the next few weeks due to a hammy strain. Facing Oakland is the icing on the cake, with the Raiders allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season.
Using players against the Falcons has become a cheat code. This defense is allowing 31.9 points per game which is the second-worst mark in the NFL. That’s led to them posting a 26th OPRK against wide receivers so far this season which is big news for Russell Wilson and his top receiving option. Lockett is just that, leading the Seahawks in catches, yards, targets, and snaps. That’s why he’s averaging 17 DK points per game and that’s bad news for this horrific defense.
Golladay is coming off his worst game of the season but a matchup against Xavier Rhoades will kill any WR’s value. Prior to that, Golladay was one of the league leaders, averaging nearly 20 DK points per game. It’s no surprise when you consider his usage, with Golladay totaling at least eight targets in each of his first five games. That’s really all you can ask for against a defense like this, with the Giants owning a 24th OPRK against wide receivers this season while surrendering the fifth-most yards in football.
This FanDuel price is truly ridiculous. Brown has been performing at a $7,000 level all season long on FanDuel and they’re simply slow to react to his breakout. The simple fact is, this dude is the focal point of this passing game. That’s evident when you see that he’s leading the Bills with an 86 percent snap share and a 22 percent target share. That usage is backed up by brilliant production, with Brown accruing 473 receiving yards this season, a Top-20 total. The best part about all of this is a matchup with the Eagles secondary, with Philly allowing the most fantasy points and yardage to opposing wide receivers this season.
We already professed our love for the Seahawks in the Lockett write-up and that’s going to make it tough to fade Metcalf too. The physical attributes from Metcalf are truly special, setting records at the combine for strength and speed. That talent is one thing but he’s showing flashes of that on the field as well. In fact, Metcalf is averaging 10.7 DK points per game over his last three fixtures, becoming a much bigger part of this offense. His nine targets in Week 7 actually marked a career-high and that directly correlated with the Will Dissly injury. Look for Metcalf’s targets to continue to rise over the second half of the season, as he could become a red-zone threat too. Not to mention, he’s already playing 77 percent of the team’s snaps and that could rise the more he gets used to this offense.
Davis is honestly one of the most frustrating players in fantasy but any top WR for a team is worth a shot at this price. That’s just what Davis is, leading the Titans in snap share, targets and total catches. That’s led to Davis averaging 13 DK points per game over his last four fixtures, which is way too good for a player in this price range. Inserting Ryan Tannehill behind center has apparently revived this passing game too, as his 312 passing yards in Week 7 is easily the best mark of the season. That’s terrifying for a terrible secondary like this, with Tampa owning a 28th OPRK against WRs this season.
Hopkins is an easy bet to succeed but Stills is the sneaky guy in this offense. With Will Fuller (hamstring) out, Stills could be in line for his biggest workload. If you take out a game where he got injured, Stills actually has eight catches for 194 combined yards over his last two games. More importantly, he played 94 percent of the teams snaps last week and it’s clear they want him in that number-two spot while keeping Keke Coutee in the slot. If you get a WR playing this many snaps against a defense like this at this sort of price, you don’t fade him!
Tate just continues to be disrespected by these DFS sites and it’s hard to understand why. Over his last five games, Tate has never played fewer than 89 percent of the team’s snaps. That’s led to him collecting at least six targets in all five of those fixtures, amassing 40 total targets in that span. That’s a monstrous role from a player priced this cheaply and this matchup is better than it looks on the surface. While Tyler Boyd will be suctioned up by Jalen Ramsey, Tate should feast on this otherwise subpar secondary. That’s especially big considering Cincy should be throwing a lot, entering this matchup as a 13-point underdog.
DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 Receptions
Anytime someone has 12 targets in back-to-back games, they’re a great bet for at least seven catches. It happens to be a guy with the best hands in the league and he could see even more targets with Will Fuller now sidelined. The matchups isn’t too shabby either.
A flashback at some of the best performances from the Monday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 10/15 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.
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This just seems like we are printing money at Win Daily as Capper Steve hit on both of his Sports Betting Picks. If you followed his action, you would be up 4.65 units. However, in order to see his recent selections, you need to become a Gold member. Our Gold members have 24/7 access to our Slack channel where you can talk to all our DFS experts and pick their brains about your lineups. Capper Steve can always be found in our multitude of Slack Chats.
Here is a snippet from the NFL Projection Model that is available to all Premium Gold members. This is from all the top receivers based on salary for Week 6. Kenny Golladay had a great game last night with five catches for 121 yards against the Green Bay Packers on the road. He was a huge factor to why Detroit was competitive all game long and should be considered one of the top wide receivers in the NFL.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Last night was the most yards in a single game for Golladay this season. He is quietly putting together a very good start to the season productivity wise. He has 364 yards this season and has been good for the past few weeks. Give him a solid look as you build next week’s lineup and beyond.
Brett Connolly was a huge factor into why the Florida Panthers rallied back from down three goals to beat the New Jersey Devils last night. Connolly scored a pair of goals in his 16 minutes on the ice. He has increased his goal count each of the past two seasons and looks to be continuing that trend with his first goals of the season now under his belt. Expect him to have a good season as he looks to get the Panthers into the playoffs after just missing it last year.
Stephen Strasburg had a heck of a performance in Game 3 of the NLCS last night against the St. Louis Cardinals. He went seven innings while allowing a run on seven hits and had 12 strikeouts without recording a walk. It is obvious how dominant this Washington pitching staff as the team sits one win away from the World Series.
This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Three 13-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.
90% Snap Share. 25 Targets (36% share), 16 receptions, 13.8 yards per reception, One TD.
Keenan Allen has eight receptions in each of his starts. Austin Ekeler and Allen make up the majority of the Chargers target share and should continue to be heavily relied on by Philip Rivers. The Texans defense is clearly not the same this season without a consistent and effective pass rush.
75% Snap Share. 21 Targets, 11 Receptions, 12 yards per reception, Three TDs.
I would keep an eye on ownership on the Falcons side as Sunday approaches. If it remains low I think this is a good spot for the Falcons to put out a sneaky offensive performance. Julio Jones has already notched three touchdowns in two games. The Atlanta offensive line is improved and it looks like the Colts will be missing key pieces to their pass rush on Sunday. Julio is matchup proof and if Devonta Freeman can snap out of his 2.2 YPC average it could really open things up and become a big day for Julio.
87% Snap Share. 14 Targets, 10 Receptions, 15 yards per reception, Two TDs.
Michael Gallup is out and we’ve all seen what happens on Amari Cooper island. I’m fading the Devin Smith hype and fully expect Dak Prescott to target his clear cut number one receiver against possibly the worst defense in the history of the game. Expect the Cowboys to pour it on fast and hard at home in Dallas,
78% Snap Share. 17 Targets, 10 Receptions, 19 yards per reception, One TD.
Travis Kelce is matchup proof and if the weather is as bad as they are predicting on Sunday in the Chiefs home opener, we should see a ton of looks go Kelce’s way. Defending the tight end has always been an issue for the Ravens and now they face the number one tight end in the league.
88% Snap Share, 13 Targets, 7 Receptions, 29 carries for 227 yards, 9.3 yards per touch, One TD.
I’m not buying the Tampa defense. I will have a nice chunk of exposure to Saquon Barkley. He is going to be a safety blanket for Daniel Jones. I also think Daniel Jones is not getting enough credit and this is a very good Giants offensive line.
100% Snap Share, 17 Targets, 12 Receptions for 93 yards, 35 carries for 165 yards, 6 yards per touch, Two TDs.
If you listened to our weekly podcast you heard me talk about a possible narrative between Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray. Kyle Allen is drawing the start and honestly I think this is the best situation to increase CMC’s ceiling. Cam Newton has just not been good and now with Allen starting it makes me love CMC and his heavy usage even more.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8800 FD|$8900 DK): 61% Snap Share, 36 carries for 164 rushing yards, 4 targets, 3 receptions, Two TDs.
99% Snap Share. 19 Targets, 12 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Two TDs.
The Philadelphia Eagles are depleted on both sides of the football, namely their secondary and receiving core. Kenny Golladay, among other Detroit receivers I will include in the lower tier, all have great matchups. The Eagles are giving up 340 yards per game through the air in the first two games and somehow made Case Keenum look like a rock star.
78% Snap Share. 13 Targets, 12 Receptions, 163 receiving yards, 29 carries, 124 rushing yards, Four TDs.
As I discussed with Keenan Allen above, Ekeler is a crucial part of the offense and I believe Rivers will continue to look his way in the passing game.
95% Snap Share. 15 Targets, 10 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Zero TDs.
The Patriots have decided to release Antonio Brown so we are back to our normal pecking order in New England. Julian Edelman is always a favorite for Tom Brady and he draws a great matchup against lowly Jets corner, Brian Poole.
86% Snap Share. 24 Targets, 15 Receptions, 16 yards per reception, Three TDs.
There are a lot of question marks with the Chiefs receivers and who to target. I think Sammy Watkins is your safest bet, although he will be chalk. I prefer Mecole Hardman in tournaments lining up against Ravens backup corner Anthony Averett.
47% Snap Share. 17 Targets, 16 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Two TDs.
Mark Andrews is a sure catch if a ball is to come his way. He is Lamar Jackson’s go to guy but continues to deal with a nagging foot injury. I don’t believe he is in jeopardy of sitting, but should be monitored leading up to lock. I like Andrew’s to continue his dominant start to the season against a K.C .linebacker core who hasn’t been tested with an elite tight end, or offense for that matter.
40% Snap Share. 18 Targets, 12 Receptions, 19 yards per reception, Two TDs.
I honestly believe there is no one on the Kansas City defense that can cover Marquise Brown. They are going to double team Brown but I don’t think it’s going to last long with Lamar Jackson pumping throws to Mark Andrews. As soon as K.C. brings Honey Badger in to defend the middle and relax double coverage on Brown, he will gash them with a huge catch. If the Ravens defend the pass rush effectively this is what I expect will happen.
100% Snap Share. 24 Targets, 13 Receptions, 17 yards per reception, One TD.
I went to the Ravens game last Sunday cause I had never seen the Cardinals in person and one of my bucket list goals is to see some of these Hall of Fame players before they retire, one of them being Larry Fitzgerald. Kyler Murray was actually really calm in the pocket and I think he handled himself well in Baltimore against a ferocious defense. Fitz is seeing the third most targets in the NFL after two games.
87% Snap Share. 13 Targets, 7 Receptions, 21 yards per reception, One TD.
Looks to me like there is a new WR star in Seattle, but you know, he had a slow three cone shuttle time so he can’t be an elite NFL receiver (sarcasm).
89% Snap Share. 10 Targets, 9 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, Zero TDs.
I like Marvin Jones Jr. as a pivot off of Golladay in tournaments. He always has a couple big games a year and this could be one of them against a depleted Eagles secondary.
90% Snap Share. 16 Targets, 10 Receptions, 12 yards per reception, One TD.
Nelson Agholor will be highly owned and should be considered for cash games. He is way too cheap on DK and if Alshon Jeffrey plays on Sunday that should draw Darius Slay coverage. I’m not crazy about the play but he should see even more targets with all the injuries to their receivers.
95% Snap Share. 20 Targets, 10 Receptions, 15 yards per reception, Zero TDs.
86% Snap Share. 18 Targets, 10 Receptions, 15 yards per reception, Zero TDs.
Kyle Allen looks comfortable throwing the ball anywhere so I don’t believe this is a situation where he will be limited to short/intermediate passes although Olsen and McCaffrey do provide a nice security blanket against a heavy pass rush.
76% Snap Share. 12 Targets, 7 Receptions, 20 yards per reception, One TD.
The Eagles got smoked by old man Vernon Davis so I really like the Hockenson play, particularly on DK because he is so cheap. This is my darkhorse sleeper of the week, he is barely attracting any ownership at all and had a monster game week one.
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Week 3 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
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Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.
Dak Prescott ($8,400 FD; $6,500 DK)
Dak is my top QB this week. Here is a little trick I used a lot last year. When the Cowboys are playing a bad defense just lock in Dak, Cooper and Zeke and boom, you have their entire offense (especially since Michael Gallup is out). The Cowboys are playing the Dolphins at home and whoooof, Miami is bad. Like, the worst team of a generation bad. The Cowboys are going to destroy them just like the Ravens and the Patriots already have. The Boys are currently 21 point favorites which just doesn’t happen in the NFL. There is NO WAY that Dak fails this week. Lock him in and tweet me when you cash with your lineups.
Stud Quarterback: Lamar Jackson ($8,500 FD; $7,000 DK)
Lamar Jackson’s price went down $200 this week on FanDuel for some reason. He is getting his third bad defense in the row in the Kansas City Chiefs. In the first two weeks Jackson has thrown seven touchdowns and ran for 126 yards (120 of them in game two). The Chiefs did not give up much to the Raiders last week, but besides the Dolphins, they probably have the worst offense in the NFL. In Week One the Chiefs got scorched by Gardner Minshew for 275 and two touchdowns in three quarters. Jackson now has a slew of wide receivers to targets and Ingram to help balance the offense on the ground. Jackson has over 30 fantasy points in both games this year, and there is no reason he can’t reach that again this week. Whether the Ravens are in the lead, or playing from behind, Jackson will get his through the air and/or on the ground.
Mid Quarterback: Josh Allen ($7,500 FD; $5,900 DK)
Is everyone finally on my fantasy darling Buffalo Bills QB this year? He gets it done through the air and on the ground and that is what you have to have in a NFL DFS Quarterback. This week is the Bills home opener and this kid is going to show off. Allen’s game logs are almost identical from Week One and Week Two. He has thrown for 250 yards and one touchdown in each game. He has also ran for about 30 yards and a rushing touchdown in each game. The Bills play the Bengals, and their defense is nothing to fear. He is my third favorite NFL DFS QB this week.
Mid Quarterback Pivot: Tom Brady
Notes: I am not on Mahomes as much as Dak and Lamar this week. I will get a few shares, but way more of Dak and Lamar
Quarterback Punts: None: You don’t need to punt this week.
Stud RB: Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800 FD; $8,900 DK)
Zeke is going vs. the Miami Dolphins. They gave up 59 points to the Ravens in week one and 43 to the Patriots in Week Two. They have given up two rushing touchdowns in both games. Zeke will get in the end zone and is the clear spend up player in NFL DFS at the RB position this week.
Stud Pivot: Saquon Barkley
Mid RB: Austin Ekeler ($7,600 FD; $7,200 DK)
Ok, he proved it to me. He is a threat on the ground and in the passing game. Are we all getting a good feel for how I play NFL DFS? I like players that can do multiple things. Houston has only given up one rushing touchdown this year, but they have given up three through the air, and Ekeler can catch. This makes him an even better on DraftKings because of the one point PPR structure. Ekeler has over 100 all-purpose yards in both games and four touchdowns. He should be a big part of the Chargers offense again this week.
Mid Pivot: Marlon Mack
Value Running Back: I will update closer to lock, waiting on some news.
Stud WR: Amari Cooper ($7,700 FD, $7,500 DK)
Just play Amari Cooper. Michael Gallup is hurt and they are playing the Dolphins as mentioned above. Cooper has gotten a touchdown in each game this year and he continues the streak this week. No doubt about it. I will be locking in the Cowboys core in my main NFL DFS lineup.
Stud Pivots: Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen
Mid WR: Kenny Golladay ($7,000 FD; $6,600 DK)
He got 10 targets in Week One and nine targets in Week Two. He is Matt Stafford’s number one receiver and he is priced very reasonably at 7K. The Lions play the Eagles this week, who are getting roasted by receivers so far this year. It will be in Philadelphia, and I expect a bounce-back from the Eagles, who just got embarrassed by Julio Jones last week during a nationally televised game on Sunday night. If the Eagles are winning, that is very good for Golladay because Stafford will have to air it out more.
Mid WR Pivots: Adam Thielen, Sammy Watkins
Value WR: Marquise Brown ($6,100 FD; $5,900 DK)
Hollywood Brown is the NFL DFS breakout receiver this season. I wasn’t convinced after he exploded in Week One, but after seeing him get targeted 13 times in Week Two I am hopping on board while he is still cheap. Lamar Jackson is my second favorite QB this week and Hollywood is his favorite receiver. He is fast, like his cousin Antonio, and is ready to become a star. He had 28.7 FanDuel points vs the Dolphins and 12.6 FanDuel points vs the Cardinals in week two (without a touchdown).
WR Value Pivots: Tyler Boyd, DK Metcalf, Will Fuller
Stud TE: Mark Andrews ($6,800 FD, $4,600 DK)
He has over 100 yards and a touchdown in each game. He is coming on STRONG this season and gets the poor Kansas City defense. This should be a high scoring game and the Ravens are not going to quit targeting their surprising stud in this one. You can expect close to 10 targets and that’s enough opportunity for any tight end.
Stud TE Pivot: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz
Value TE: Greg Olsen ($6,100, $3,700 DK)
The Cardinals are getting torched by tight ends. In Week One they gave up 131 yards and a touchdown to the Lions’ T.J. Hockenson in his first NFL game. In Week Two they gave up 121 and a touchdown to Mark Andrews. Are we noticing a pattern here? I am fine with Cam Newton possibly not starting (update closer to Sunday) because his backup will likely check it down more to Olsen (and McCaffrey). Olsen got 110 yards last week vs. the Bucs and he was a little beat up. I am going to stick with what’s working at tight end, and I expect low ownership.
TE Pivot: O.J. Howard (last shot)
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Another great week of NFL DFS Cash Games in Week Two! Over 80% of the player field in last week’s Checkdown hit value, including the breakout prediction of Deebo Samuel. Let’s get right back to it for the Week Three Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.
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My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites.
If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.
QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: Devonta Freeman
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Kenny Golladay
TE: Greg Olsen
FLEX: Frank Gore
DST: New England Patriots
This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Two 13-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.
61% Reception rate. 13 Targets, 8 receptions, 13.9 yards per reception (Week One).
DeAndre Hopkins is such a key part of this offense and his 100% snap share makes him a top wide receiver play week in and out. Sammy Watkins had a huge game with nine receptions, 198 yards, and three touchdowns. I’m not not a believer in this Jacksonville defense and I do not think Week One was an outlier. I’ll take Hopkins as a top play in Week Two.
75% Reception rate. 8 Targets, 6 Receptions, 9.8 yards per reception (Week One).
Let’s keep this one simple. The Bengals just tossed over 400 passing yards and two TDs against the Seattle defense in their house. Big Ben is better at home through history, but we have seen those splits come closer together the last two years. The Steelers lost two massive pieces on their offense and the 33-3 beat-down in Foxborough doesn’t bode much confidence. Nonetheless I think we have to consider a Big Ben/Smith-Schuster correlation for tournaments if you’re running multiple lines. Smith-Schuster just as one-off is fine too.
77% Reception rate. 13 Targets, 10 Receptions, 12.3 yards per reception (Week One).
Michael Thomas should draw a good bit of ownership on Sunday, although he does draw Marcus Peters in coverage. This game comes in with the highest score total so this is definitely a spot you’ll want to highly consider. There isn’t a whole lot of weight to back the Drew Brees dome/no dome theory. Any QB is going to be better when not dealing with the elements, but Brees has identical completion percentages, (66% no dome, 69% dome) and not a big flux in points scored on the road versus at home.
80% Reception rate. 10 Targets, 8 Receptions, 15.4 yards per reception (Week One).
Keenan Allen is probably my bottom play in terms of top receivers. He doesn’t get that great of a matchup but the Chargers really have no other weapons outside of Allen and Ekeler. Mike Williams is banged up and Hunter Henry is out again. The Chargers have limited options so we should see Rivers try to get the ball to who he is comfortable with and that is Keenan Allen.
85% Snap Share, 6 Targets, 4 Receptions, 9.3 yards per touch (Week One).
Game-script affected the way Saquon Barkley was utilized in the Giants offense. He only had 11 carries and four receptions and still managed 139 all-purpose yards. That is the definition of efficiency and Buffalo isn’t quite as good as Dallas against the run. Sterling Shephard is now in concussion protocol and the Giants lack offensive luster outside of Shephard, Engram, and Barkley. He should see a nice increase in usage and wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 20+ touches in Week Two.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8500 FD|$8700 DK): 14 touches, 63 all-purpose yards, 1 TD (Week One).
100% Reception rate. 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 14 yards per reception (Week One).
Kirk Cousins only threw the ball 10 times in Week One, completing eight of them for 98 yards and a TD. Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota defense pretty much handled the rest. This is a big division game against Green Bay and I think we see a lot more passing given run defense is one of the Packers’ strengths. Adam Thielen should see at least 10 looks on Sunday.
70% Reception rate. 10 Targets, 7 Receptions, 6.6 yards per reception (Week One).
Cooper Kupp gets one of the best pound for pound matchups on the slate against P.J. Williams. The Rams didn’t look great offensively last Sunday but Jared Goff home/road splits are a thing. At home, Goff is completing 68% of his passes compared to 60% on the road. He also averaged 342 passing yards per per game at home (he threw over 400 in some) versus 243 on the road. Kupp was one of the highest targeted receivers in the red zone and averaged nine targets per game last season. I like him particularly on DK for the PPR.
62% Reception rate. 95 Targets, 59 Receptions, nine yards per target (Week One).
It will be interesting to see what kind of game plan Bill Belichick rolls out in Miami. His team is talented in all three phrases and he has numerous weapons and depth to compliment those weapons. I’m not a huge fan but I’d be neglectful to not include Julian Edelman. My theory is based on game script. I think this game correlates better with RB paired with DST as opposed to QB with WR. I just think they play smart, sound football and grind it out. Edelman should be considered, he just won’t be in my main lineup.
Honorable Mentions: Robert Woods ($7300 FD|$6400 DK), Kenny Golladay ($6600 FD|$6600 DK), Tyler Boyd ($6300 FD|$6600 DK),
70% Reception rate. 10 Targets, 7 Receptions, 17.6 yards per reception (Week One).
John Brown presents great speed against a terrible New York Giants defense. Prior to his departure of Arizona he had dealt with injuries off and on and then was traded to Baltimore and saw minimal work when rookie QB Lamar Jackson came in and ran his way through the rest of the season. Brown is a good receiver and matches up well against Janoris Jenkins. Although I still love a Zay Jones play to pivot off of him, I give John Brown the edge.
85% Reception rate. 7 Targets, 6 Receptions, 17 yards per reception (Week One).
The Raiders present overall great value across the board. K.C. has a weak secondary and rookie Gardner Minshew made that pretty evident after going 22-25 and two TD’s last week. Carr has limited weapons and Tyrell should continue to benefit.
80% Reception rate. 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 17 yards per reception (Week One).
85% Reception rate. 7 Targets, 6 Receptions, 16 yards per reception (Week One).
24 touches for 113 all-purpose yards and 2 TD’s (Week One).
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Adam Thielen Featured Image via Keith Allison
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