As a diehard Mets fan, bleeding Orange and Blue, there is nothing I look forward to more than seeing the Amazin’s back on the field and with an abbreviated season heading our way (fingers crossed), it means we get the return of my other love – fantasy baseball! So here is a New York Mets Fantasy Season Outlook!
For fantasy baseball players, when they think of the Mets, they are going to immediately turn to Jacob deGrom and Pete Alonso and rightfully so as consensus top 20 players even in an abbreviated season. There is nothing to say about deGrom or Alonso that hasn’t been said and drafting them inside the top 20, you will likely get a strong return on their value but there is one player right now that I think is not being hyped up nearly enough and could return elite fantasy baseball value in 2020 – Michael Conforto.Right now, Conforto is being drafted outside the top 25 OF’s and barely within the top 100 overall which seems like a mistake for a 27-year-old player hitting his prime after a season in which he knocked 33 HR’s and 92 RBI’s.The circumstances surrounding Conforto heading into this season could not be better, as the Mets will get one of the biggest boosts in baseball with the addition of a DH, swapping out a pitcher for the likes of Yoenis Cespedes. The Mets lineup heading into 2020 is strong across every spot and that day in and day out grind on pitchers without the “benefit” of facing an opposing teams SP in the batter’s box, I believe will make for inflated offensive numbers in the heat of the summer.
Last year, the most common Mets line-up included Todd Frazier and the pitcher’s spot in the line-up and now in 2020 you swap those out for a duo of Cespedes and JD Davis and well, you can start to see how there is simply no break for opposing arms facing this lineup.
If you look at Conforto’s splits, it won’t shock you to see that his K rate drops and his slugging % and ISO metrics jump materially when he is up in the count, specifically early in the count as we saw him generate well over a third of his HR/RBI output when he got up in the count 1-0. This is where the lengthened line-up and the addition of guys like Yo and JD behind him will pay massive dividends as he gets to take advantage of hitter’s counts with more threats around him and more high leverage, run-producing situations.
I also think the fact that Conforto will play 40 of the 60 games against the NL East gives him a familiarity with the parks and pitchers he will face for the large majority of the season, helping bring some continuity to 2020 in which any sort of normalcy will be a big boost to players in this new world.
One interesting note, the last two seasons Conforto has been a huge second-half player with a massive jump in 2018 as his ISO jumped well over .100 points to .266 and we saw a similar improvement in the second half of 2019. You could argue that resurgence comes with the weather warming up which in theory would translate to this year with all games coming in the heat of the summer or you can take the approach that he takes a while to get going – which in a shortened season could be an issue as every game on the schedule has a higher degree of importance.
There is one constant though in the numbers for Conforto – a consistent upward trend and sometimes as Mets fans, we may forget he is still just 27 years old. Heading into this season with McNeil/Nimmo ahead of him and Alonso/Yo/Cano/JD/Ramos right behind him – there is going to be some serious per game run production hitting in the middle of a lineup that showed it was a top 10 offense across every metric in the second half of last year, ranking top 10 in runs, RBI, team ISO and team wOBA. With the addition of a DH, and one as talented as Yoenis Cespedes, I want as many underrated pieces of this Mets offense as I can get!
And hey – LFGM!
Thanks for enjoying this New York Mets Fantasy Season Outlook! Make sure to follow us on twitter at @WinDailySports and me at @2LockSports! There is more FREE content over at WinDailySports.com and you can chat with our Fantasy Pros one on one in our Expert Discord Chat!
The options in tonight’s 7:05 EST 9/25 DFS main slate are limited, and most of the arms we’re focusing on are in the upper pricing tier. But there’s a couple lower priced options in the mix of today’s pitching picks to help you get some of those potent bats in your lineups. Let’s go!
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
I don’t normally like to pick too much on the Marlins, but after last night’s big Mets rally and subsequent victory, I think Miami will have a tough time getting up for this game against the NL’s most electric starter. The dominant deGrom has thrown seven scoreless innings in each of his last two starts and most recently allowed just four hits with no walks and nine Ks in an 8-1 win over the Reds. He’s carrying a 3.44 ERA in 21 career starts against the Marlins but those numbers should improve overall after tonight.
He’s a huge favorite on the road in Seattle and this will be his final start in the regular season – one that’s been somewhat tumultuous. But in nine starts since being traded from the D-backs back to the AL on July 31, Greinke is 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA. 9/25 DFS features a couple of proven veteran arms with upside — and Lester has now topped 200 innings pitched for the ninth time – a feat that only Justin Verlander, who’s done that 12 times, has accomplished more among active pitchers. The Mariners don’t scare me much, so Greinke makes sense in cash and GPP.
Bieber might not be the most dominant arm on tonight’s slate, buthe’s a couple hundred bucks cheaper than Jacob deGrom and should command muchlower ownership for GPPs. He had a clunker a couple starts ago, which shouldkeep him from donning the chalk, and he’s still sporting a 28.1 K% over hislast two seasons. The White Sox have a 25.6 K% this season and Bieber should besinging them the blues in the Southside tonight.
It’s been a frustrating season for Lester, who’s 35 years old and winding down an impressive career. He’s okay for 9/25 DFS cash if you’re fine with a little bit of risk, but I think he’s more of a GPP play tonight. The Cubs southpaw has gone 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA in four starts against the Pirates this season and is 2-1 with a 5.48 ERA in four outings in September. He’s not an exciting guy to plug into your lineups, but he’s pitched well versus the Pirates and seems to be one of the best options in this slate.
I guess the aforementioned Lester could be considered apunt on FD, where he’s less than $7K, but there just aren’t too many arms inthat price range who I’ll be rolling out this evening. Samardzija will make thefinal start of his 2019 season at home versus the Rockies, who are much less frighteningon the road. Last night’s game lasted 5 hours, 31 minutes, with the Giants making12 pitching changes – so they’ll be looking for some length out of Big Jeff tonight.The 34-year-old veteran is 6-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 20 career appearances againstthe Rockies and makes for a fine cheap SP2 on DK and a contrarian GPP play onFD.
Speaking of contrarian options for 9/25 DFS, we’ll close out the recommendations with Jacob No. 2. Waguespack, a reverse splits pitcher with an occasionally aggressive approach that’s feast or famine for opposing hitters, pitched well in his last start against the Yankees in New York, peppering hitters with inside fastballs and cutters, limiting hard contact and striking out six batters over five innings. This version of the Orioles lineup (the one with Chris Davis) strikes out at a pretty high clip, and I’m less frightened of them the day following a big offensive explosion. Mix him into a few GPPs as your SP2 on DK and stay away from him on FD.
Morton should rack up plenty of Ks against the Yankees. He’s posted at least eight Ks in seven of his last 11 and three of his last four games. If there’s one thing the Yankees do other than hit home runs, it’s strike out, and they really don’t make a lot of contact in Tampa.
Tanaka has at least 5 Ks in six of his last seven games and matches up well with the Tampa lineup. There’s plenty of upside here if you want to take the risk and bank on the over for both pitchers.
I love Lamet’s 12.57 K/9 this season and 14.2 SwStr% this season,a number that’s been 15.2 over the last 30 days, good for 10th bestin baseball (min 20 IP) during that stretch. He’s posted K totals of 14,7,4,10,5, 6, 7 and 12 since the start of August. He’s also gone at least 5.0 IP in allthose games. I’m taking the over and counting on at least six Ks from Dinelson.
Stripling’s pitched just 2.0 innings in three of his last four appearances(the other was 3.0 IP), and has whiffed just 3,2,2,2 in those outings. He’s basicallyan opener now and the odds of him of racking up more than five Ks have to bepretty low. I’m taking under 5.5 Ks from the Dodgers’ opener.
These pitching articles have been fun to write all season long and we’re finally getting down to the final two weeks. That’s really disappointing news but we really want to continue our stellar form and give you guys some solid plays for this last week of MLB DFS. One thing that I hate about this time of the year is that we have managers doing funky things, like limiting pitch counts and scratching starters. That means anything can change at any given time and we’ll do our best to provide pitchers who are actually pitching for a purpose. With that in mind, let’s get into our 9/20 DFS pitching picks.
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
deGrom is arguably the best arm in the league right now and he’s always worth considering as your cash game pitcher. His 2.61 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season is incredible but it’s actually lower than his 1.70 ERA and 0.91 WHIP from last year. Those absurd statistics equate to a 2.12 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 32 percent K rate in that two-year span. His form right now is on par with that 2018 season, with deGrom pitching to a 1.76 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 rate over his last 13 starts.
That’s bad news for a Reds offense that ranks 22nd in runs scored, 21st in OPS, 22nd in OBP and 27th in xwOBA. This team has only gotten worse over the last two months too, trading away players like Yasiel Puig and Scooter Gennett while dealing with injuries from guys like Joey Votto, Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker and Derek Dietrich.
Kershaw has been in this article a lot this season and he’s truly the definition of a cash game pitcher. The reason for that is because of his consistency, with CK pitching at least six innings in 24 of his 26 starts this season. That’s reliability at its finest and it’s led to a 3.05 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
His recent form only adds to his intrigue, with Kershaw providing 11.5 K/9 across his last 12 starts. Facing the Rockies is simply the icing on the cake, with Colorado ranked 23rd in K rate, 28th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and 30th in OBP on the road this season. That’s why Kershaw and the Dodgers enter this matchup as a –320 favorite.
While Folty’s terrible start to the season obliterated his season averages, he’s been a much better pitcher over the last month or so. Over his last eight starts, Foltynewicz is accruing a 2.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 rate. That’s the guy that we saw in 2018, with Folty amassing a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
Those amazing statistics make him very attractive against an offense like this, with the Giants sitting 28th in runs scored, 27th in OBP and 28th in both OPS and wOBA. These are two teams headed in opposite directions and that’s evident by the fact that Foltynewicz enters this matchup as a –250 favorite.
Using pitchers against Miami is always a good idea. The reason for that is because this club ranks either 29th or last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, SLG and xwOBA. That’s a recipe for disaster, especially in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. We certainly want a veteran like Sanchez opposing them too, with the right-hander tallying a 3.38 ERA and 1.19 WHIP since the start of last season. He’s absolutely rolling right now, throwing at least seven innings in both his last two starts while allowing just two combined runs and nine total baserunners. That’s why Vegas has Sanchez and the Nationals as a –200 favorite in this fixture.
This is totally risky but there’s reason to like Cease. Let’s start with his matchup, as he faces a Detroit team that ranks at the bottom in nearly every offensive statistic. In fact, the Motor City Kitties rank last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, K rate and xwOBA. That puts any pitcher in play against them, particularly a talented, young arm like Cease.
While he’s currently got an ugly 6.18 ERA, this dude was nails at the minors. In fact, he had a 3.02 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 rate for his minor league career. A 4.63 xFIP at the Majors also indicates that he has some positive regression headed his way and a matchup with the Tigers might be just what the doctor ordered. In his two starts against Detroit this season, Cease has actually scored at least 30 FanDuel points in each outing.
It’s risky to trust a guy who’s struggling so badly but we can overlook some tough matchups. Despite allowing 16 runs over his last three starts, Fiers is actually in a great spot to succeed. He’s actually pitched to a 2.44 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his previous 21 starts and its way easier to trust a 21-game sample size over a small three-gamer.
What really makes him enticing here is this matchup though, with the Rangers sitting 29th in K rate, 21st in OBP and 19th in wOBA. That’s scary in a spacious ballpark like Oakland Coliseum, with Fiers pitching to a 3.15 ERA and 1.11 WHIP there this season. Not to mention, Fiers enters this game as a -180 favorite.
Steven Brault Under 4.5 Strikeouts
I’m not so sure that Brault will even last four innings in this game. The Brewers are projected for about six runs in Miller Park, which is horrible news for Brault and his 4.98 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with Milwaukee playing for their lives.
Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!
Zach Greinke Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Greinke didn’t find his way into this article because I wanted to save him for this prop. We are talking about a pitcher with a 2.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP facing an Angels offense who ranks dead-last in runs scored for the month of September. That’s really no surprise when you consider that they’re without Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Justin Bour and Tommy LaStella
Welcome to a special Thursday edition appearance by me, Jerry Colvin. As a player who does this day in and day out, filling in is easy enough. After all, I already must do the research anyway.
On this 8/29 MLB DFS pitching slate you are going to have to make some clear and very painful choices on DraftKings, fade Coors Field, or not fade Coors Field. At the current salaries if you want any of them bats, you will be taking a chance on pitching. So, without delay let’s get this going.
Sign up NOWfor WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections,weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
LanceLynn vs. Seattle Mariners
$9,300 FD / $10,000 DK
Despite the seven runs allowed to the White Sox in his last start, at his salary on both sites he is the top option on this 8/29 MLB DFS slate. In three starts this year versus Seattle, Lynn has allowed six earned runs over 20 innings while fanning 30 batters. With the Mariners striking out 24.6 percent of the time versus RHPs, combined with Lynn’s 10.4/K9, you have a real shot at some serious fantasy points.
Hyun-JinRyu vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
$9,000 FD / $10,500 DK
Despite my love for the Dodgers, and the joyful repentance I take for the season, and doubt I had in Ryu to ever pitch at this level again, I simply would rather pay for him tonight over Jacob deGrom. I would, however, on this 8/29 MLB DFS slate point out that at deGrom’s price-point on both sites he does make for a very tempting GPP play. Regardless, tonight is still going to come down to being able to afford some decent hitting. The Diamondbacks absolutely destroy LHPs to the tune of a .367 wOBA, and wRC+ of 123. At home they both drop significantly down to .316 and 88.
My worries here are strikeout upside. Arizona is currently only striking out 18.4 percent of the time versus LHP, and Ryu over his last three starts has 14 strikeouts over 20 innings while only allowing one earned run. With numbers like these, despite the decreased strikeout totals, I see no reason not to say thank you, Ryu. This makes the 8/29 MLB DFS even better if he goes through.
Tired of losing money on your DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner while turning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!
ChrisPaddack vs. San Francisco Giants
$7,000 FD / $9,000 DK
It’s time to man up and make some hard decisions on this 8/29 MLB DFS slate. Over his last four starts spanning 17 innings versus the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Phillies, Paddack has allowed 19 earned runs. Now this does indeed scare the boxer briefs off me. The fact remains all three of them teams mentioned above are far better than the Giants. San Francisco is striking out 22.6 percent of the time versus RHPs, and have a home .wOBA of .281 to compliment the wRC+ of 75.
Both are 30th, opening the door for Paddack to have a strong bounce-back start facing a team he has shown success against in two previous starts this season.
Alex Woodvs. Miami Marlins
$7,500 FD / $7,900 DK
Alex Wood, yes that is where we have landed. Alex Wood. Remember that name tonight because salary wise if you were to go any lower, the blow-up risk associated here is the difference between the first musket, and a modern-day shotgun. He has absolutely been beaten up over his last four starts facing the Pirates, Cardinals, Nationals, and Cubs.
Now the difference between them and the Marlins is day and night. The Marlins are striking out 22.5 percent of the time versus LHP with an increase to 26.1 over the last seven days. To throw the proverbial cherry on top the only two teams with worse home numbers are the Tigers, and Giants (ring a bell?). On this 8/29 MLB DFS slate with limited cheap options, I would eat a good dinner and tell myself this is his best chance for Wood to come out solid.
Sign up and get started with WinDailySports! We have your sport and the experts to help make you money. Why lose another buck when you can win TODAY!
FOLLOW WinDaily DFS ON TWITTER
@WinDailyDFS. PLEASECHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES,STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTENTO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE
A flashback at some of the best performances from the 8/24 MLB DFS slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season.
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
As our Premium Gold Data Driven Pitcher Projection Model predicted, Jacob deGrom dominated last night against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field. He was projected to be the best available pitcher on the 8/24 slate and proved so with seven innings of one run ball on four hits while adding 13 strikeouts, including a stretch where he recorded eight consecutive punchouts. deGrom also hit a home run at the plate, further emphasizing the type of game he had.
Outlook for the rest of the season: He is still a dominant top pitcher after last season’s output. Another great season as he is top-five in ERA and strikeouts in the Majors. With the New York Mets surging into a potential playoff position, expect deGrom to pitch like the ace he is paid to be.
The list above is the prices on DraftKings for shortstops, provided by our Data Driven Hitter Projection Models. Gregorius went 2-for-5 with a pair of homers and five RBI against Hyun-Jin Ryu the Los Angeles Dodgers. Over 20 percent of his hits in the last 30 games have left the ballpark.
Outlook for the rest of the season: “MJG”, as his jersey reads for Players Weekend, has been getting back to speed and looking like the Yankees shortstop prior to his Tommy John surgery. It’s not out of the blue to expect him to get to 20 home runs dispite missing the first two months of the season.
Our founder and CEO Jason Mezrahi was all over Meadows in this matchup on the Premium Gold Cheat Sheet. Meadows faced off against the Baltimore Orioles and went 1-for-4 with a home run and four RBI.
Outlook for the rest of the season: This was the second consecutive game where Austin Meadows hit a home run. However, beware of a potential falloff as he has never played this many games in a season since 2015. A fatigue factor could play as the stretch run begins. Keep that in the back of your mind as Meadows continues to play in the final month of the regular season.
The Twins scored six runs including a pair of homers by Jake Cave and Miguel Sano.
Outlook for the rest of the season: The current A.L. Central leader, the Twins will produce a lineup many opposing pitchers have difficulties navigating. As they continue to battle with the Indians over the division crown, expect the lineup to continue producing.
A nice looking slate for this Saturday in the middle of August. Plenty of pitching choices to consider for 8/17 MLB DFS play.
Jacob deGrom, Mets at Rotals ($11,500 FD, $11,600 DK): The most expensive arm by far on each site and for good reason. The defending Cy Young Award winner in the N.L. has pitched very well for the last two months or so. Although the optics of deGrom’s last start were not great, fantasy-wise things were not terrible as an error resulted in three unearned runs. In fact, deGrom hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since June; he’s 3-0 with a 1.20 ERA over that stretch. If there were ever a game that the Mets really needed, this would be the one. A cash game staple, he will make bats tough to afford from teams in great spots like the Red Sox and the game at Coors.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Orioles at Red Sox ($8,400 FD, $9,000 DK): Much like the Mets, the Red Sox need almost every game from here on to make the playoffs. Despite having a better record than the Mets, the Sox are further back in A.L. wild card chase than the Mets are in the N.L. However, there are fewer teams to leapfrog. ERod, despite being inefficient with his pitches, has certainly earned Alex Cora’s trust. 113, 113, 108, 113, 99, 105 are the number of pitches he has thrown over his last six starts. If he can get a couple of easy 1-2-3 innings today against the hapless Orioles, an eight inning start is possible. He is the first pitcher I am locking into my DK contests due to a combination of being in a good spot, price and a great chance at a win.
Win Daily offers several membership options including a free membership and Premium Gold. Both are available for different prices and lengths. Our most popular option is our Gold Monthly recurring subscription. You can also purchase a weekly or yearly subscription.
If you already have a free registered membership, we suggest upgrading to our Premium Gold monthly membership plan for regular access to all of our products like our slack chatroom.
Jordan Lyles, Brewers at Nationals ($7,400 FD, $7,700 DK): I am starting to think that the Brewers are the Astros of the N.L. when it comes to reclamation projects with pitchers. Last night in Washington D.C., we saw Adrian Houser toss another good game for the Brew Crew. And since Jordan Lyles came from the lowly Pirates to Milwaukee, we have seen steady improvement. There is no reason in my mind that he can not repeat what Houser did last night. Very possibly, he is my second pitcher to pair with ERod on DK.
Trent Thornton, Mariners at Blue Jays ($6,400 FD, $6,400 DK): Two of his last three starts have resulted 15 DK fantasy points. In his last start at home against the mighty Yankees he was especially impressive. He gave up only one run on three hits over six innings while striking out six. Thornton’s biggest challenge in 2019, though, has been consistency between starts. This makes him a GPP only option today.
I am going back to Fenway Park and I want the Boston bats today against the Woj bomb. This starting pitcher for the Orioles came out of nowhere and shut down the Red Sox a few Sundays ago in Camden Yards. Since then, he has not been able to repeat his success that he had that day. Now that the Red Sox have a book on him, look for them to tee off in a game they desperately need.
I like three homers from this trio today. Go for broke!
Unlike Saturday’s slate, the Sunday 8/11 DFS pitching schedule brings good tidings for those who seeking top end pitchers. All three formats are well-stocked with options, including a sleeper or two that has a chance to deliver surprise numbers.
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
Check me out on Twitter @BCWilliams71
deGrom has fattened the wallets of many over his last 15 starts, scoring at least 40 FanDuel points 11 times, with his 49 point effort in his previous start against the Marlins leaving him a point shy of four straight starts with at least 50 points. Obviously, starting deGrom as your SP1 will impact the coin you’ll spend on offense, but when you’re getting 11.45 K/9 with just 2.2 BB/9 while keeping the ball in the yard, you’ll spend it and do so smiling. deGrom sets the pace by hitting first pitch strikes at 66.5% and is still putting up good numbers despite not maintaining the off-the-charts pace he had in 2018.
Most pitchers will take a 4.9 WAR a this point of the season, but that — along with a RAR of 43.3 — is what deGrom carries into this contest. He’s more dominant at home in Citi Field, where deGrom has struck out 84 batters over 68 innings at home with a 3.18 ERA. He’s more unforgiving to the Nationals, holding them to an 0.75 ERA while putting together an 18:4 K/BB rate and a composite .167 allowed against them.
Most will consider deGrom the better play, but you can’t fault anyone plugging Verlander as their SP1. JV has four straight starts of at least 58 FanDuel points and faces a Baltimore lineup bereft of quality in its lineup, a huge reason they are 24th in OPS and 25th in wRAA. He’s pushing for a second straight season of striking out at least 35% of opponents, and he’s still a legit Cy Young award candidate despite a rise in hard contact rate (40.8%) and an elevated HR/9 rate (1.68).
deGrom gets the edge because of his track record against the Nationals, but Verlander has won seven of his last eight starts and is on a four-start stretch of at least 10 strikeouts. I think you’ll get another 10-K from Verlander and another win that would give him a sixth straight win.
Minor hit some major turbulence in mid-July but has won his last two starts, including seven shutout innings against the Indians on Monday. One could say that Minor is having a career year, as his 31.3 RAR has already eclipsed the 29.6 RAR he recorded as a member of the Braves in 2012. He’s been inconsistent when it comes to FanDuel reduction, as his 28.95 FD points were his best output since scoring 34.55 FD against the Tigers on June 26.
The Brewers are hitting a combined .252/.312/.403 this month and are paying dearly for their all or nothing at all mindset, striking out 85 times in eight games. There is good potential for Minor to be able to exploit Milwaukee’s loss of Christian Yelich, who remains sidelined with back woes.
Giolito has at least 43 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts and has shaken off the 9 points he produced at FD against the Cubs on July 6. He’s approaching 11 strikeouts per nine innings (10.86 K/9 to date). Giolito has continued to keep opposing batters from making max impact against him (30.9% hard contact rate) and has avoided the long ball despite a 41.1% fly ball rate.
This shapes to a good matchup for Giolito, as the Athletics have seen their bats go .233/.340/.454 over the past week. Oakland’s longball or bust mentality will work agains them considering Giolito allows opposing bats to hit just .203 against him at home this season while he’s delivered 70 strikeouts over 59.1 innings. What keeps Giolito from being a cash pitcher is the uncertainty that the A’s bats get dialed in early and catch Giolito off-balance.
Junis comes off a 37 FanDuel point outing against the Red Sox and already has starts of 37 and 34 points against the Tigers this season. There is sneaky good strikeout potential in Junis, who averages 8.46 K/9 to go along with a slightly above league average 3.12 BB/9. The Tigers’ lineup won’t be able to fully exploit Junis’ weakness (his 1.56 HR/9 rate), this despite the fact the Royals hurler sports a 42.4% hard contact rate.
There’s a chance the Tigers might get one off him, but I think Junis is capable of setting the pace early with strikeouts before getting the Detroit bats to induce ground balls as a steady clip. This is a good pairing if you’re looking to go with deGrom or Verlander in a cash league or even Giolito in a PPS format.
For my debut in MKF, I’ll go Astros-Orioles and take the shot on Asher Wojciehowski lasting long enough to get the over on strikeouts before Houston’s lineup sends him to an early exit.
"*" indicates required fields
