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Jacob deGrom

Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel

What a first day of the Wild Card it was.  Phillies had a massive comeback and Mad Max had his worst playoff start of his career.  Today’s a new day and hopefully we see some great action. 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob Degrom vs. San Diego Padres

Although the Padres bats came alive yesterday, I don’t think it happens 2 days in a row.  Mad Max clearly still has a hurt oblique as the spin rates on all of his pitches were down and down significantly.  He had just a few swings and misses last night and was essentially throwing beachballs. 

Today’s going to be different as Jacob Degrom toes the rubber for the Mets.  Although he’s been giving up a few mistakes that have led to some homers against him, he still has a massive 42% K rate over the last month.  The Padres are a team that struggles with fastballs.  Degrom throws a bunch of them.  He should be able to square this Wild Card matchup back up. 

Triston McKenzie vs. Tampa Bay Rays

I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again.  This Rays lineup just isn’t that good.  Outside of Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena, they have no serious weapons.  Shane Bieber absolutely dominated the Rays yesterday and we should see McKenzie do it as well.  McKenzie, in my opinion, is the ace in waiting in this rotation.  He’s been solid over the last month of the season, having a WHIP of .88 and an ERA of just 1.91.  He’s pitching really well right now and that should continue today.    

Other pitchers that could do well today will be  Aaron Nola and Tyler Glasnow.  The only concern with Glasnow is that he has just 2 3-inning starts this season after coming back from TJ surgery.  We can’t expect him to pitch much longer than a handful of innings.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Robbie Ray

I like the Blue Jays to get this series back to even today in a matchup vs. their old teammate in Robbie Ray.  Ray had the finest year of his career while wearing the Blue and White of the Blue Jays.  He has fond memories of pitching in Toronto, but those fond memories will be long in the rear-view mirror after he gets shelled today. 

The Blue Jays were one of the better teams in the league this year vs. lefties and should be able to get to Ray today.  Over the final month of the season, Ray was not overly sharp as he had 3 games giving up at least 4 ER, and his final start of the season he got rocked by the A’s. He should struggle vs. a really good Blue Jays lineup today.

Core:  My core with the Blue Jays this afternoon will be Teoscar Hernandez, Whitt Merrifield, and George Springer.  I’m going to prioritize getting these 3 guys into my lineups.  All 3 smashed lefties over the final month of the season.  Springer had a .360 ISO and a .383 wOBA while Hernandez had a .400 ISO and a .388 wOBA.  Then there was Merrifield.  Over the final month, he had a .444 ISO and a .481 wOBA vs. southpaws.  He’s just $3.1k on DK and is a solid value. 

Secondary Pieces/Value:  Other Blue Jays bats I’ll look to today will be Vladimir GuerreroBo Bichette, and Danny Jensen.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miles Mikolas

The Phillies bats woke up late in Game 1 and we should see that momentum carry over to game 2 for the series sweep today.  I don’t think Mikolas is any more than an average pitcher.  He has limited K upside and pitches to a ton of contact.  Over the last month of the season, he had an 80% contact rate and just a 24.5% K rate.  Most importantly though, hitters had 8 barrels and 4 homers against him over the 26 innings of work. 

Core:  My Phillies stack is going to start with Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto.  Schwarber has absolutely terrorized righties over the last month.  He had a .492 ISO and a .468 wOBA.  A leadoff homer from today isn’t out of the question. 

Realmuto also finished the season strong vs. righties.  Over the final month, he had a .300 ISO and a .380 wOBA.  Mikolas is a pretty splits neutral player so Realmuto won’t be at a disadvantage.   

Secondary/Value:  I also Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Jean Segura.  Look for this Phillies lineup to light up Mikolas today.  

MLB DFS Summary

Other stacks I like today will be the Mariners vs. Kevin Gausman and St. Louis Cardinals vs. Aaron Nola.  If you want to get really crazy and you’re entering multiple lineups, stacking against Degrom can really set you apart today.  He’s given up 6 homers over his last 28 innings of work.  A ton of Ks too, but the homers are extremely troubling. 

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.  4 games at 1pm and a 7 game main slate. 

Both slates today see some risky pitching options.  With risky pitching options comes offenses in some really nice spots.  My goal on both slates will be to provide with some aces and some bats to help you get into the green and score a takedown.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate

The early slate today is a very risky slate.  3 of the 4 games have weather concerns, with 2 being serious enough where this could end up being a 2 game. 

Pitching wise you should lock inJose Berrios ($10.5k) and move on.  He gets a good match-up against a White Sox team that has been struggling over the past couple of weeks.  Yes, they put up a big number but it was against 2 pitchers that probably shouldn’t be in the majors in Ober and Shoemaker. 

Carlos Rodon ($11k) is the best pitcher on the slate talent wise but he’s taking on a projected Twins lineup that has only a 21% K rate on the year to lefties and a .313 wOBA.  I don’t really like the match-up for him. 

Hitting wise we need to be a little different than our opponents as it’s such a small slate.  I’m going to do that by looking at the Seattle Mariners against Hyun Jin Ryu.  Outside of his 1 start against the Orioles, Ryu has been pretty bad over the past month.  His swinging strike rate is sitting at 8% and he’s giving up about 20% more hard contact than soft contact.  The bats I’d focus on there are Haniger ($3k) and France ($2.7k). 

The next spot I’d look at are the Boston Red Sox against Kris Bubic.  Bubic has really been struggling.  In his last 18 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers.  He’s not missing bats and he’s giving up a ton of hard contact.  His xFIP over the past 30 days is sitting right around 5.  He’s actually been worse this season against lefties so we don’t need to avoid guys like Devers or Verdugo.  The 3 guys I’m most focused Bogaerts ($4k), Martinez ($4.3k), and Renfroe ($3.5k).  All three of these guys have ISO’s greater than .240 over the past 3 seasons when facing lefties.  They smash lefties and Bubic is a smashable lefty. 

I have very low confidence the Yankees/Angles game plays today.  If it does, both teams would make great stacks as Canning and Montgomery have been pretty bad of late. 

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($11.5K) vs. Atlanta Braves – Degrom is hands down the best pitcher on the slate.  He has a staggering 42% K rate over the past 30 days with a 21% swinging strike rate.  I don’t need to sell you on his talent.  My only concern with Degrom is that he hasn’t been going deep into the games recently.  Due to injuries he’s had several outings cut short. 

The good news is that his arm hasn’t been taxed that much.  He hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in a game since April.  With the Mets blowing through their bullpen in games recently do they give him a longer leash than they have?  I hope so. 

Corbin Burnes ($10.6K) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – As Adam pointed out in the Starting Rotation today, the spin rate monsters have caught up to Burnes.  He’s seen a pretty significant drop in spin rate with his cutter.  With that being his main pitch we’ll need to use him with caution.  That said, he still has an elite 35% K rate over the past 30 days. 

While the Pirates aren’t a high strike out team (their projected lineup today has a 19% K rate vs. righties), they’re also not hitting for much power.  Against righties this season they have just a .655 OPS and .121 ISO.  Those are pretty bad numbers.  Burnes is my clear #2 behind Degrom.

Ian Anderson ($8.4k) vs. New York Mets – While the Mets are getting close to fully healthy on the offensive side, they’ve still been struggling to put up runs.  They’ve also been K’ing a bunch.  Over the past week they have a 28% K rate.  Until they show consistently they are a productive offense, I think we can attack them. 

Today we’ll attack them with Anderson who has been solid of late.  Over the past 30 days he’s sporting a 3.24 xFIP with a 27% K rate.  All signs point to him having a solid outing tonight.  He’s not in the same ballpark as Degrom and Burnes, but he’s a whole lot cheaper and provides some upside tonight. 

MLB DFS: The Bats

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Will Crowe – I’m going to continue playing the Brewers until FD raises their prices and everyone else decides to join the party.  They are one of the hottest offenses in the game right now and tonight they get a match-up against a pitcher in Crowe who has been giving up a ton of hard contact. 

In his last 18 innings pitched he’s given up 6 homers to go along with just an 8% swinging strike rate.  Crowe’s been getting hit pretty hard by both sides of the plate so we can focus on the entire lineup.  

The guys I’m focusing on tonight with Brewers will be Urias ($3k)Adames ($3.1k)Narvaez ($2.6k), and Peterson ($2.4k).  Hiura ($3.2k) is also an interchangeable part in this stack.  All have been extremely productive during this run the Brewers have been on.  As a team they have 18 barrels over the past week in just 176 AB’s. 

San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly – Yes, Kelly has been lights out the last 2 games.  Prior to that though he had been brutal.  With a match-up against the Giants today we should see Kelly come back down to earth.  The Giants have been very strong against righties this year with a near .200 ISO and an OPS sitting at .758.  Giants should throw out 5 lefties tonight. 

In looking at Kelly’s pitch mix he’ll mostly throw a 91 MPH fastball and mix in his change-up.  This is a combo that Giants lefties hit very well.  My focus will be on Yastrzemski ($2.9k)Dickerson ($2.2k), and Crawford ($2.8k).  They are all cheap and have ISO’s greater than .200 to Kelly’s pitch mix. 

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Antonio Senzatela – There’s weather risk in this game, but it’s Coors and I do want a piece of it tonight.  Over the last month Senzatela has been giving up a ton of hard contact.  It’s sitting close to 43%.  This is something I’ll want to exploit tonight. 

He’s been somewhat of a reverse splits pitcher as the majority of the hard contact is coming from righties as they have a 48% hard hit rate against him this year.  Cardinals have a predominantly right handed lineup so this lines up very well for them, and very poorly for Senzatela. 

He throws his 94 MPH fastball more than 50% of the time. Carlson ($3.3k) and O’Neill ($3.8k) both have ISO’s greater than .300 against this pitch type.  Plugging in Goldschmidt ($4.1k) and Arenado ($4.2k) may prove to be tough because of salary, but if I had to pick between the two, I’d side withArenado.  

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Between the day slate and the night slate we’re going to need to be prepared to closely monitor weather.  There’s rain everywhere today and there are a handful of games that are both at risk of a delay and postponement.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s monster 14-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 4:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The weather concerns in this slate are sparse and minor, and we shouldn’t be concerned about any delays that could impact the pitchers we’re targeting today.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

There’s definitely part of me who wants to roster Trevor Bauer, and the Dodgers RHP is certainly worth a look on DK at a discount, but on FD, Burnes makes the most sense as top dog, as he possesses the most strikeout upside on the slate. While some simulations actually have Bauer projected for a higher total tonight (even WinDaily’s model gives Bauer the slight value edge — likely due to the TEX team K rate of 26.8% vs. RHP), the new crackdown on foreign substances has had a detrimental effect on the K numbers of a few pitchers, “Tricky Trevor” included. Burnes, as Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 6/12 Starting Rotation article, is coming off a monster start where he racked up 13K and 70 FD points. He’s a top five MLB pitcher and FanDuel’s scoring allows him and his 18.5% swinging-strike rate (a metric that ranks behind only Jacob deGrom this season) the chance at 60+ each and every night he takes the mound. We’ll have to get a little creative with our hitting stacks to build something we can be confident with, but Burnes is a great option for cash games and I’ll be using him in some GPPs as well.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

For the second straight week, Muskrat Joe takes our top value spot. He was serviceable in that role last week with a 10 K outing, but he did get knocked around a little bit to the tune of 9 hits and 3 ER — and the pedestrian 5.0 IP kept him from receiving the crucial quality start bonus we need from our SP. Adam and I both like him for today’s slate, and the fact that he’s kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP under 3.00 in this career year make me happy to recommend him against the Mets. who strike out at a team rate of 23.7%. Musgrove is carrying a career-high 34.2% K rate and limiting his free passes, and the Mets don’t have their usually lefty firepower without a few of their better offensive players. Joe’s unlucky 6/5 start still yielded 36 FD points, and this time he’s the same price and should eclipse the 40 mark.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

I was actually a little giddy when I saw that Adam was on Taillon as a GPP value play today, because he’s one of the first options I considered when I thought “contrarian play” for this slate. Taillon is effective against right-handed bats and the Phillies (who have a bunch of them) strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB (26.4% — tied with MIA and MIL). I wouldn’t blame anyone for going a little safer with value options like TB LHP Rich Hill ($7,700 vs. BAL), but the Orioles relatively low K rate (20.2%) vs. LHP makes me think he lacks the same upside, value and leverage for GPPs. If we want to stack some of the best bats, we’ll need what Taillon offers in salary relief to get there.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

AS of 11:11 a.m. EST, there’s no line yet on this game, but you’d have to imagine that the high-powered Braves offense is projected for 5+ runs against a 27-year-old rookie making just his second major-league start. Thompson’s minor-league metrics don’t jump off the page and the Braves have just too much firepower to worry about using them. Go with Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and a still-discounted Austin Riley ($2,700) in a four-man stacks, swapping out Albies for value options (and righty mashers) William Contreras ($2,200) and Abraham Almonte ($2,100) if you need the salary savings to get four Braves in your build.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

The Brewers have a bunch of risky but potent hitters in their lineup to go along with the consistently excellent bat of Christian Yelich ($3,800), including Avisail Garcia ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), Luis Urias ($2,700) and Willy Adames ($2,200). Left-handed OF Jace Peterson is also an option at just $2,200. I’m particularly interested in four-man combos that prominently feature Narvaez, Yelich and Vogelbach as a three-man core, with Urias, Garcia, Peterson and Adames alternately making up the fourth Brewer bat. Giddyup!

Update: Luis Urias is sitting this one out.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

The A’s are never all that popular as a team stack on big slates, and today they could be in for an offensive explosion against Jackson Kowar, who carries a 54.00 ERA after one career start — a rocky debut outing against the Angels on Monday. The usual suspects are in play here, from “Mashing” Matt Olson ($3,500) to leadoff hitter Mark Canha ($3,700) and a slew of low-priced options including Tony Kemp (just $2,000!), Jed Lowrie ($2,900) and Sean Murphy ($2,400). I’m also quite enamored with Seth Brown ($2,400) as a risk-reward value option, and I’ll be mixing and matching a few different four-man combinations of these six A’s hitters in my large-field GPP entries.

Update: Both Lowrie and Canha are not starting on Saturday.

Other stacking options: NYY RH bats vs. PHI RHP Vince Velazquez, CIN LH bats vs. COL RHP German Marquez

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather concerns, but there’s a game in Coors with an 11.5 point total and two pitchers, one — LHP Kyle Freeland — with 7 BB in 8.0 IP so far this season and the other, visiting lefty SP Cole Irvin — with a .358 career road wOBA. It goes without saying to get exposure to this game, but we’ll give you some other options to consider.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Jacob deGrom ($11,500)

It’s hard to click any other name at SP on FD, even though Kevin Gausman’s last four starts (averaging 52.5 FD points and 9 K per game) have the edge on deGrom’s last four (43.25 FD points and 8 K per game). The Mets ace costs just $300 more than Gausman and boasts a very silly 1.53 xFIP, compared to a still-impressive 3.07 for the Giants RHP. I’ll have shares of both, but deGrom is still deGOAT.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

He’s much harder to trust than the big dogs, but Muskrat Joe (2.08 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, 11.72 K/9 in 11 starts this season) is a dynamic pitcher who can break a slate. The salary savings allow you to get whatever Coors game stack you want, albeit with a much higher risk. There are definitely signs that regression is coming, as Musgrove’s .212 BABIP is a solid 80 percentage points lower than his career metric (.294), but I’m willing to ride out another start about this pesky DFS darling.

Contrarian GPP Play: Kevin Gausman ($11,200)

Gausman’s numbers are amazing this season, and as discussed earlier in the deGrom writeup, he’s on a helluva run with his K numbers. The Cubs strike out at a 25.2% team rate, a lot more than the Padres (21.1%), so I’m inclined to be overweight on Gausman in GPPs for the additional leverage, as deGrom should still earn more ownership. Again — pricing is pretty soft for some of the high-projected-total games, so the big spend SPs will make up about 90 percent of the ownership.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies vs. OAK LHP Cole Irvin

The A’s are a fine choice for top spot too, with Mark Canha ($4,200), Matt Chapman ($3,800), Matt Olson ($4,400)and Jed Lowrie ($3,600) being the obvious four-man stack at or near the top of the order. But they are pretty expensive, and they might be tough to fit in some cases with deGrom or Gausman up top. Canha is an impressive hitter who sees the ball well and makes for an amazing leadoff hitter in Coors, so I’ll haver some Colorado stacks that add on him as the primary one-off for OAK, and then find a three-man stack from another game for leverage. For the Rockies, I prefer C.J. Cron ($3,700), Charlie Blackmon ($3,900), Garrett Hampson ($3,300) and Joshua Fuentes ($3,400) against Irvin (who’s given up 24 hits over his last three starts), though there may be some other necessary value plays depending on who starts.

Value Stack: New York Yankees vs. BOS LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Rodriguez has been very “gettable” in his last three starts, and while the Yankees strike out a lot, Yankee Stadium is getting hot and humid and the wind is blowing out to right center today, aiding some of those power righty bats in the Bronx. There’s loads of value and upside in rostering a three or four-man Yankees stack tonight, with D.J. LeMahieu ($3,000), Aaron Judge ($3,600) and Gleyber Torres ($2,900) as my three favorite “spends” and Gio Urshela ($2,500), Gary Sanchez ($2,400) and Clint Frazier ($2,300) clocking in with serious bargain prices.

Contrarian Stack: Los Angeles Angels vs. SEA LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi has been okay in 2021, but he hasn’t been missing as many bats in his last few starts, opening himself up for a possible letdown against the home team Angels and their parade of right-handed power bats, including Justin Upton ($3,000), Anthony Rendon ($3,200) and Taylor Ward. ($2,600) And there’s obviously Shohei Ohtani ($4,000), whose metrics against LHP are a bit down in ’21. But $2K punts Phil Gosselin ($2,000) and Juan Lagares ($2,000) are in play (if they play) tonight, as Gosselin boasts great numbers vs. LHP (.460 wOBA in 26 AB this season)

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS: Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate on Fanduel.  Due to the rainouts in Chicago and Colorado yesterday, those games were left off of today’s Fanduel main slate. 

We have ourselves a Jacob Degrom today!  Outside of Degrom there are some other solid options that can be utilized today.  There are also some intriguing hitting spots.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($12.5k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – There’s really not much I can say about Degrom that hasn’t already been said.  He’s the top pitcher in the league.  Anytime he’s on the mound he should be included in your lineup, or at the very least, be considered for your lineup.  On the season he’s k’ing more than 15 per 9, has a ridiculous 1.39 xfip, a 23% swinging strike %, and 59 k’s through 35 innings of work.  He’s a generational pitcher.  Cardinals have a near 25% k rate vs. righties this year.  He should be in your lineup.  

If you are making the decision to fade Degrom today, here are some other options I like.

Nick Pivetta ($8.3k) vs. Detriot  Tigers – On Sunday we attacked the Tigers with Corey Kluber.  He returned the favor with 10 k’s and 8 innings of shutout ball.  Do I think we get a similar outing today from Pivetta?  Eh, I doubt it.  But I do like his chances of having a strong outing.  The Tigers are k’ing at a 29% clip vs. righties to go along with a low OPS and wOBA. 

Pivetta’s pitch makeup consists of mostly fastballs and curveballs. Combined, it’s about 75% of the time.  Focusing on his curveball, it’s a pitch that the Tigers struggle with.  Outside of Jonathan Schoop and Akil Baddoo there isn’t a batter that has an ISO great than .115 against this pitch.  Really like the matchup here for Pivetta. 

Huascar Ynoa ($8k) vs. Washington Nationals – Ynoa is someone who has gone a little under the radar this season.  Outside of one outing vs. the Cubs, he’s been really good.  He has a 2.64 xfip for the year through 27 IP, which is one of the lower marks for any pitcher going today. 

Ynoa mostly relies on his fastball and slider.  The slider is a pitch that the Nationals struggle with.  All of them whiff at a rate greater than 27%.  This is a high upside spot for Ynoa tonight.  No reason to believe he can’t have a ceiling game tonight.  He faced this team at the start of the season and threw 5 innings and k’ing 5 while only allowing 3 base runners.  Like the spot here.

J.A. Happ ($7.9k) vs. Texas Rangers is another intriguing spot.  Rangers are very attackable vs. lefties.  With some of the pitchers out there tonight, I just don’t think the need is to go here.  Especially with Ynoa at a very similar price point.  

MLB DFS: The Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Joe Ross – Outside of one outing vs. the Cardinals, Ross has been pretty decent this year.  He has 2 QS and 1 where he got pulled just before he could get it.  I still like my chances here, and here’s why.  Ross is a predominantly sinker ball pitching.  Throwing it 37% of the time to lefties and 40% to righties.  Braves batters all have a lot of experience against this pitch.  Ronald Acuna ($4.2k) – .274 ISO, Freddie Freeman ($4k) – .333 ISO, Marcell Ozuna ($3.2k) – .180 ISO, Ozzie Albies ($3.3k)– .237 ISO, Dansby Swanson ($2.5k) – .207 ISO.  All 5 of these guys have had great success.  Due to pricing, if going with this stack I’m going to go w/ 2-5. 

Oakland Athletics vs. Anthony Kay – Kay is making his second start today.  His first start, it did not go well.  He only lasted three and a third innings after giving up 4 earned runs.  The Athletics have done really well this season vs. lefties.  Their K rate vs. lefties is middle of the pack at 24%, but they have a .766 OPS to go along with a .332 wOBA. 

The A’s will throw out a bunch of righties today.  Guys like Mark Canha ($3.3k)Ramon Laureano ($3.5k), and Matt Chapman ($3k) should all feast tonight.  Look for another short outing out of Kay tonight.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Eric Lauer – The box score shows that Lauer pitched well in his first outing vs. the Dodgers.  The advanced metrics tell a different story.  His xFIP for the game was 4.88 and he had a BABIP of .267.  46.7% of the contact he gave up was hard and he had a low swinging strike rate of 8.2%.  These are all red flags that mean he didn’t pitch nearly as well as his final line showed. 

Lauer in his career has actually been a reverse splitsy pitcher who’s done better against righties than lefties.  That said, the Phillies have a bunch of guys they’ll throw out tonight that smash lefties.  I’m assuming Harper sits tonight so 1-4 should look like Andrew McCutchen ($3.3k)Rhys Hoskins ($3.9k)Alec Bohm ($2.6k), and JT Realmuto ($3.4k).  This is going to be a really tough start for Lauer and I hope the regression from his first start comes tonight.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This is shaping up to be a nice slate.  Because of the Rockies game being taken off of the slate, we don’t have to worry about Coors.  Degrom should carry heavy ownership, while bats may be more spread out.  There are some weather hot spots in Philly, Washington, and St Louis so you’ll want to keep an eye on those games. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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