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10/12 NHL DFS: The Daily Hot Shot

MLBMovingAvg 5 years ago

written by MLBMovingAvg

Hey guys, for the second time in a row we have an 11-game slate to follow up a three-game slate the day before. That being said there is a lot to cover on tonight’s slate. The action begins at 7 pm ET with the final puck drop at 10 pm. Let’s get started on the 10/12 NHL DFS slate!

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TORONTO vs. DETROIT – Toronto has a lot of fire-power but they have also been bleeding defensively in almost every game, relying on their high-powered offense to score their way out of problems. Detroit has had a hot start to the season but is starting to look a little shaky. On paper, this game looks like an interesting matchup but I don’t have confidence in either team regarding DFS play Targets: Matthews-Rielly (Stack), Mantha, DeKeyser, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (Punt)

NEW JERSEY vs. BOSTON – New Jersey has been bad this season and it’s coming as a bit of a surprise given all the improvements they made over the offseason. They have yet to record a win in their 2019-20 campaign and it looks like they’ll have to wait a little longer to achieve that feat as they are going up against a strong Bruins lineup in TD Gardens. Boston also has a strong defensive core alongside their deadly (but expensive) top line. Targets: Boston Bruins 1, Coyle

ST LOUIS vs MONTREAL – St Louis has gotten off to a hot start this season and has benefitted from solid goaltending courtesy of Jordan Binnington. They will faceoff against a Montreal side that is among the leagues worst in goals allowed per game. So far this season the Blues have yet to lose on the road and Montreal has yet to win at home. Targets: St. Louis Blues 2, Pietrangelo

FLORIDA vs NEW YORK ISLANDERS – Both the Isles and the Panthers played last night and both lost on the road. Tonight they will meet up at Nassau Colesium and although the initial instinct is to favor the Panthers, neither team has been playing particularly well and, like Montreal, Florida is among the leagues worst in Goals allowed to start the season. Interesting enough, backup Sam Montembault will get his first start of the season tonight. He posted good numbers last season and it will be interesting to see how he performs. Targets: Beauvillier-Toews, Hoffman, Dadonov, Montembault (Punt)

COLOMBUS v CAROLINA – Again both these teams played last night and tonight will be a battle of the backups. In the tendy “tale of the tape” the two goalies are absolutely mismatched. Carolina will be turning to James Reimer who is a perfect 2-0 to start the season and will be entering the night sporting a .940 SV%, on the other side Columbus’ starter Elvis Merzlikins lost his only start of the season and coughed up seven goals in the process, I will be targeting Carolina against the rookie netminder tonight. Targets: Carolina Hurricanes 2, Haula, Teravainen, Reimer

WINNIPEG vs CHICAGO – This game could get out of hand. Neither goalie has been particularly impressive to start the season with both teams allowing an average of 3.6 goals per game. However, both teams are also scoring in abundance to keep themselves in games. With that being said this matchup is tonight’s ideal game stack. Targets: Winnipeg Jets 1-Chicago Blackhawks 2, Pionk, Maatta

WASHINGTON vs DALLAS – Although upon first look it seems as though this would be Dallas’ game, in actually the stats paint a much greyer picture. Neither team is scoring goals in abundance and Washington has had a positive record on the road while Dallas has struggled at home yet to secure a win. That could change tonight, however, I believe there are better plays to target in tonight’s large slate. Targets: Dallas Stars 2

PITTSBURGH v MINNESOTA – Although Pittsburgh has been mired by the injury bug to start the season that no match for the horrible case of awfulness that has struck the Wild to start the season. The Wild have lost their opening three games in regulation and have are among the leagues worst in goals allowed, allowing Pittsburgh to maintain viability despite the injury struggles. Targets: Crosby-Simon, Zuccarello

ARIZONA vs. COLORADO – Arizona was able to take advantage of a struggling Malcolm Subban in their last match but will be in a much tougher spot tonight against the Aves who are 3-0-0 this season, the Avalanche may call upon their backup Pavel Francouz to tend the twine tonight. Although this imparts a certain added risk to Colorado, Francouz did post solid numbers in his two NHL appearances last season along with solid stats in the minors last season with a .918 SV% and a 2.68 GAA. Targets: Kadri, Makar, Colorado Avalanche 1, Oesterle, Soderberg

PHILADELPHIA vs VANCOUVER – No matter what continent they’re on, the Flyers have been lights out in the NHL Regular season. After an opening salvo in Prague, the Flyers followed up with a 4-0 shutout for their home opener, the young Hart’s first of his career. Although the Canucks tore into the Kings they were the Kings, it is unlikely they will have a similar result against a more formidable opponent in the Flyers. Targets: Philadelphia Flyers 2, Provorov, Hart, Hughes, Miller

CALGARY vs VEGAS – Both teams are very dangerous offensively but also have solidified defensive cores and are among the leagues best in goals-against average. This game could work as a game stack but it will be a tight squeeze. Along with the Flyers and Canucks game, this will be the final game of the night. Targets: Calgary Flames 2-Vegas Golden Knights 2 OR Calgary Flames 2-Vegas Golden Knights 1

10/12 NHL DFS TOP EXPOSURE PLAYS:
– Colorado Avalanche >> Colorado Avalanche 1, Kadri, Makar
– Philadelphia Flyers >> Philadelphia Flyers 2, Provorov, Hart
– Carolina Hurricanes >> Carolina Hurricanes 2, Haula, Teravainen, Reimer

10/12 NHL DFS MID EXPOSURE PLAYS:
– Pittsburgh Penguins >> Crosby-Simon
– Boston Bruins>> Boston Bruins 1, Coyle
– St. Louis Blues >> St. Louis Blues 2, Pietrangelo

10/12 NHL DFS RECOMMENDED GAME STACKS:
– Winnipeg vs Chicago>> Winnipeg Jets 1-Chicago Blackhawks 2
– Calgary vs Vegas >> Calgary Flames 2-Vegas Golden Knights 2 OR Calgary Flames 2-Vegas Golden Knights 1

10/12 NHL DFS RECOMMENDED PUNT PLAYS:
– Charlie Coyle BOS
– Anthony Beauvillier NYI
– Roope Hintz DAL

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week Six: Touches and Targets Outlooks

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Six 10-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: Julio Jones (ATL) ($8500 FD|$8000 DK)

77% Snap Share. 44 Targets, 26 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Four TDs.

Another down week for Julio Jones in Week Five. I have to imagine he’s going to have a big game sooner rather than later, and he gets the matchup for it in Week Six. Matt Ryan has the third most passing yards through six weeks (1636) and other than the Colts game has thrown 43 times or more. Julio Jones should get plenty of targets this week.

NFL DFS WR: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) ($8400 FD|$7400 DK)

100% Snap Share. 44 Targets, 31 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

Same applies as above, DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t quite gotten things going yet but draws a favorable matchup against a very weak K.C. secondary. Ownership should be identical for Fuller and Hopkins so I will definitely have shares of both, just not paired with Watson.

NFL DFS WR: Amari Cooper (DAL) ($8100 FD|$7000 DK)

91% Snap Share. 43 Targets, 32 Receptions, 16 yards per reception, Five TDs. Fourth best fantasy point per game output for WR’s (22).

Amari Cooper comes in as my top rated receiver for the Week Six slate. He is seeing a nice target share on a week to week basis (26%) and is facing a bottom 10 defense vs. the pass. Not to mention the Jets are missing two more defensive lineman on top of C.J. Mosley this week, so I can see the Cowboys having their way in New York.

NFL DFS WR: Adam Thielen (MIN) ($8100 FD|$7000 DK)

77% Snap Share. 30 Targets, 20 Receptions, 15 yards per reception, Five TDs. 42% red zone target share**

I know the big debate this week is play Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen. My personal take is I favor Thielen just based on his red zone utilization. He is seeing a ton of looks down towards the goal line and that’s what we want if we’re going to pay off his salary. The Eagles are in the bottom six against the pass and we saw Kirk Cousins turn things around against a lowly Giants defense last week. I’m not necessarily crazy about Cousins this week, but a good matchup for the receivers nonetheless.

Honorable Mention: Michael Thomas ($8200 FD|$8400 DK), Michael Thomas ($8200 FD|$7800 DK).

Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: Will Fuller V (HOU) ($6600 FD|$6000 DK)

100% Snap Share. 39 Targets, 28 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Three TDs.

Will Fuller reeled in 14 of his 16 targets for 217 yards and three TD’s in Week Five. I like both Deandre Hopkins and Fuller against a pourous K.C. secondary and expect a high scoring shootout. I will have equal shares of both in my lineups.

NFL DFS WR: Tyreek Hill (K.C.) ($7400 FD|$6900 DK)

Tyreek Hill is back from a clavicle injury and you shouldn’t hesitate to plug him in. Having him back in the Chiefs offense will really open things up and he naturally will draw a majority of the targets.

NFL DFS TE: Mark Andrews (BAL) ($6300 FD|$4800 DK)

48% Snap Share. 39 targets, 28 receptions, 11 yards per reception, Three TDs.

Not quite the fantasy output I expected from Andrews in Week Five, but they did face a Pittsburgh defense that has made vast improvements on defense and after all, it was an AFC North matchup. It looks like Marquise Brown is highly likely to play after coming down awkwardly on his ankle during his lone touchdown reception last week. This will instantly give Mark Andrews a boost and he almost always has the advantage over opposing safeties. This week is no different.

NFL DFS TE: Zach Ertz (PHI) ($6500 FD|$5200 DK)

93% Snap Share. 45 Targets, 29 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, One TDs.

Zach Ertz has seen seven or more targets in every game this season and is a big chain mover in the middle of the field. He is one of the better players in terms of YAC and offers high upside again here this week with Alshon Jeffrey being mainly used in the red zone. I do think this game could be a sneaky shootout so keep consider Ertz as a tournament play in Week Six.

NFL DFS TE: George Kittle (SF) (Ques.) ($6500 FD|$5200 DK)

88% Snap Share. 29 Targets, 23 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, One TD.

Another tight end to consider if you’re trying to pivot off of Hooper at a similar price is George Kittle. Other than Week two against the Bengals, Kittle has seen eight or more targets. Vegas currently has this game pegged at a 50 point game total. We could see a shootout here with the Rams giving up 271 yards or more in their last three games and Aqib Talib is out so that should open things up even more. If you like a SF stack this weak I would pair Jimmy Garoppolo and Kittle.

NFL DFS WR: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) ($5600 FD|$6100 DK)

99% Snap Share. 44 targets, 29 receptions, 12 yards per recption, Two TDs.

Christian Kirk is listed as a game-time decision this Sunday so I’m back on Larry Fitzgerald. He comes in at a great price again considering how much Atlanta is giving up through the air their last three games (317). If David Johnson is anything short of 100% this will only increase the target share for Fitz in Week Six.

NFL DFS WR: Robert Woods (LAR) ($7100 FD|$5600 DK)

93% Snap Share. 47 Targets, 31 Receptions, 11 yards per reception.

The Rams are at home with one of the higher implied totals on the slate. They have a pass heavy offense, averaging 46 pass plays per game (second most). Cooper Kupp is where most will naturally levitate to if they’re getting exposure to this game, but Woods is a top five receiver in terms of targets and YAC (173). He may not have found his way into the end zone yet, but he has big play upside in an NFC West tilt where the Rams need to find a way to win if they have a chance to keep up with San Francisco and Seattle for the division.

NFL DFS WR: Tyler Lockett (SEA) ($6300 FD|$6400 DK)

96% Snap Share. 36 Targets, 30 Receptions, 12 yards per reception, Three TDs.

I’m looking at this play mostly due to low ownership. His target share has gone down the last two weeks and he will draw a Cleveland Browns defense who have been fairly stingy against the pass, sacking the QB 16 times (7th best) and allowing just over 200 yards per game through the air. Despite the tough matchup, I think Carson can really open things up in the pass and Russell Wilson has a way of getting things done, even under pressure.

NFL DFS WR: Calvin Ridley (ATL) ($5500 FD|$5700 DK)

78% Snap Share. 32 Targets, 21 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Three TDs.

I’m not crazy about Calvin Ridley’s 14% target share, but he plays in an offense that is passing the ball almost 50 times per game. The Falcons and Cardinals are also top ten in terms of offensive pace, and their defenses both are subject give up a lot of points through the air. I am prioritizing Julio Jones, but I do like exposure to Ridley just based on sheer volume in a high passing offense.

NFL DFS WR: Michael Gallup (DAL) ($6100 FD|$5600 DK)

95% Snap Share. 29 targets, 20 receptions, 17 yards per reception, One TD.

Michael Gallup has had a very solid floor in DFS NFL through his first three starts. He has seen seven or more targets and 14 targets in his last game against GB. I don’t expect Cowboys to be playing from behind, so he likely won’t draw quite as many targets in Week Six, but I do love the safe floor he provides at a very nice price on both sites.

NFL DFS WR: Terry McLaurin (WAS) ($6600 FD|$6000 DK)

Case Keenum is back under center for the Week Six tank bowl. Miami, as we all know, has been absolutely horrendous on all facets of defense. They are giving up the second most yards through the air (296) and the most on the ground (175). Redskins aren’t far behind in terms of offensive efficiency, but I do think the Dolphins are outmatched, even by Washington. Terry McLaurin has seen seven or more targets in every outing this season and now has Keenum back under center.

Honorable Mention: DJ Chark Jr. (JAX) ($6500 FD|$5500 FD)

Low Tier/Punts

NFL DFS WR: Dede Westbrook (JAX) ($5400 FD|$5100 DK)

100% Snap Share. 37 Targets, 23 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, One TD.

NFL DFS WR: Marquise Goodwin (LAR) ($5200 FD|$4500 DK)

63% Snap Share. 12 Targets, 9 Receptions, 18 yards per reception, One TD.

NFL DFS TE: Hayden Hurst (BAL) ($4400 FD|$3200 DK)

73% Snap Share. 16 Targets, 12 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, One TD.

NFL DFS WR: Mohamed Sanu (ATL) ($6000 FD|$4500 DK)

82% Snap Share. 36 Targets, 29 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, One TD.

NFL DFS WR: Jamison Crowder (NYJ) ($5400 FD|$4000 DK)

96% Snap Share. 31 Targets, 22 Receptions, 8 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Willie Snead (BAL) ($5000 FD|$5500 DK)

75% Snap Share. 16 Targets, 12 Receptions, 17 yards per reception, Two TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Robby Anderson (NYJ) ($4600 FD|$3300 DK)

45% Snap Share. 21 Targets, 11 Receptions, 12 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Preston Williams (MIA) ($5600 FD|$4100 DK)

81% Snap Share. 30 Targets, 15 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, One TD.

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Featured Image via Keith Allison

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Picks (Week 6)

5 years ago

written by

Our Founder, the “The Half a Million Dollar Man”, Jason Mezrahi, and DFS PRO’s Dan Wehr and David Jones welcome you in for NFL DFS Week 6. These three major tournament winners break down each position and game from their DFS perspectives. They discuss a solid GPP approach and go through their favorite plays and game stacks.

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Week 6 NFL DFS Podcast: Game Previews and Picks for Week 6

Jason, Dan, and Dave look through the full field of Week Six plays on FanDuel and DraftKings. They lay out their favorite stacks and they both like paying up at RB and have several options for you. Our DFS Pros discuss player ownership and which stacks will be over-owned and under-owned. Listen below and get ready to win big.

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WEEK SIX NFL DFS GAMEDAY GUIDE: ALL YOU NEED TO PREPARE

–Join our Sunday Freeroll!

-Week Six NFL DFS DraftKings Cheatsheet

-Week Six NFL DFS FanDuel Cheatsheet

-Week Six NFL DFS FanDuel Projection Model

-Week Six NFL DFS DraftKings Projection Model

Our NEW DFS Pro Round Table

-Our NEW DFS Pro J.P, Breaks Down Week 6

-The King’s NEW Coachspeak Translator

-Week Six VIDEO Preview with Jason Mezrahi, The King and Matt Striker

-Week Six Main Slate VIDEO Preview

-The Full Week Six Main Slate Preview

-The King’s Week Six Picks

-DFS Pro David Jones’ Week Six GPP Picks

-Prime Cash Game Plays

-Week Six Touches and Targets Outlooks

-Our favorite Week Six Stacks

-Week Six Seasonal Starts and Sits

-Week Six RB Guide

-Week Six WR Guide

-Week Six QB Guide

-Week Six TE/DST Guide

Thank you for listening to the Week One NFL DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL Week 6 DFS: Main Slate Preview

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Are you ready for Week 6 DFS? I cannot believe it has gone by this quickly. It is nice to have a solid sample size of games to work with for data. We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys via DraftKings prices.

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Early Games

Bengals at Ravens

This game looks like a get right spot for quarterback Lamar Jackson ($6,900). The Bengals are one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The worst fantasy performance for a quarterback playing them has scored 16 fantasy points. Factor in Jackson’s rushing ability and he is a great player to roster into your cash lineups. The Bengals gave up 93 rushing yards last week to Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray. Also, do not overlook Mark Ingram II ($6,600) as the Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Any running back that has seen at least ten carries versus them has scored at least 14 fantasy points. No team has a higher implied team total than the Ravens via RotoCurve at 29.75 points.

https://twitter.com/HaydenWinks/status/1182026645022085122

Via Ian Hartitz the Ravens are allowing 6.7 yards per play which is the second-highest of any defense so far in 2019. There is potential for the Bengals to score in this game and create a friendly atmosphere for fantasy points. Joe Mixon ($5,500) is the cheapest three-down back you will find on the slate. If you exclude Week 1 versus the Dolphins the Ravens defense has allowed the most rushing touchdowns and most red zone touches to opposing running backs. Mixon has ten of the 12 red zone touches this season on the Bengals.

Texans at Chiefs

If Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill do not play in this game you will want to play Byron Pringle ($3,500). He will act as the free square at the wide receiver position this week. Also if you are looking to fade a high-priced chalky wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) consider pivoting to Travis Kelce ($7,000). Kelce has at least eight targets in every single game this season with at least 70 receiving yards. However, he only has one touchdown reception. This should change in Week 6 with positive touchdown regression coming from Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) and the Chiefs offense.

As for the Texans, I am not so sure we see the offensive explosion from last week. Playing in Kansas City is a much different spot than home against the Atlanta Falcons. Carlos Hyde ($4,400) is going to be overlooked with everybody flocking to the passing game. However, Hyde has to be considered because the Chiefs are allowing 5.3 yards per carry which rank second-highest in the NFL. When the Chiefs are at home, teams’ opponents are averaging 38.5 rushing attempts per game.

Saints at Jaguars

Are you part of Minshew Mania? Well, this week in DraftKings you may want to be. Gardner Minshew ($5,000) is one of the best valued lower-priced quarterbacks on the slate. He is averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. This week he is playing the Saints at home. New Orleans on the season has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Minshew has scored at least 14 fantasy points in each game this season and has scored 21 or more points in both of his home starts. He is also averaging right around 25 rushing yards per game. You will want to consider stacking Mishew with one or both D.J. Chark ($5,500) and Dede Westbrook ($5,100).

People are going to see the Saints matchup and project Chark to be a bust in Week 6. Marshon Lattimore is coming off a game where he just completely blanked Mike Evans. However, Evans and Chark are two completely different wide receivers. Evans is a size specimen whereas Chark is a guy that possesses 4.34 speed. Chark is too cheap to pass on. The Saints still allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Specifically, it has been against slot receivers this season. Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp all went over 100 yards when they played the Saints. Westbrook is coming off his best game of the year, as he had seven receptions on 11 targets for 82 receiving yards.

For New Orleans, it is worth paying up to get Alvin Kamara this week. We just saw Christian McCaffery absolutely tear up the Jaguars. Considering that Jalen Ramsey is also likely to play in the game, that could force more targets to the way of Kamara. Jacksonville gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to the running back position. The Jaguars have also allowed the second-most red-zone targets to the running back position. No team has allowed higher yards per attempt on the ground (5.5) than the Jaguars.

Eagles at Vikings

We saw the bounce-back effort from Vikings’ passing attack in Week 5 and that should continue in Week 6. Philadelphia gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Stefon Diggs ($5,900) comes in at cheap price and can definitely expose the Eagles’ secondary. Dalvin Cook ($8,400) is going to be avoided by the majority of players because the Eagles allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. However, Cook is heavily involved in the passing game and according to Sports Info Solutions, the Vikings are one of the best teams in terms of screen usage to their running backs from an efficiency standpoint. The Eagles are one of the worst teams at defending screens. Play Dalvin Cook in Week 6.

https://twitter.com/MichaelKistNFL/status/1181734657555083264

https://twitter.com/fduffy3/status/1182329040558055425

Seahawks at Browns

It’s time for Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,800) to bounce back. Beckham is still seeing a large target share on the Browns’ offense and is priced so low this week. The Seahawks pass-rush is not nearly as good as the 49ers so Baker Mayfield should have more time to throw the ball. The Seahawks have also given up some massive games to wide receivers this year. Cooper Kupp and John Ross both went over 100 receiving yards and scored touchdowns.

Redskins at Dolphins

The best plays for value in this game are Adrian Peterson ($4,500) and Preston Williams ($4,100). Williams via @TJHernandez on Twitter leads the league in red-zone target share. Josh Rosen has shown chemistry with Williams throughout his starts with 19 targets in his last two games. The matchup is also amazing on paper as the Redskins have given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

For Peterson, the narrative seems to be completely coach-driven. Interim head coach Bill Callahan has explicitly stated that he wants to run the ball more. Against the Dolphins it could not be a better spot to establish the run. Miami has given up the most fantasy points to running backs this season. In 2018 with the Redskins when Peterson saw at least 19 carries he averaged 100 rushing yards per game. For defenses, the Washington Redskins DST ($3,200) is also a great option. The Dolphins via PFF grades rank last in pass-blocking on the season. Washington sacked Tom Brady five times in Week 5.

Falcons at Cardinals

Time to fire up your Austin Hooper shares ($5,000). Hooper draws the best matchup of the week versus the Arizona Cardinals who have been the worst team versus the tight end position. Hooper leads the league in routes run at tight end and the spot is just too good to pass him up at his price. I say it’s worth eating the high ownership with Hooper for cash games and going contrarian in tournaments.

49ers at Rams

Without Brandin Cooks, the Rams will be forced to play more 12-personnel on offense. That would be huge for a guy like Gerald Everett ($3,600) who is tenth in the league in tight end targets and second on the Rams in red-zone targets. He is by far the best punt play at tight end on the main slate.

Cowboys at Jets

Le’Veon Bell ($6,400) for the Jets has a real chance to be productive in this game for Dallas. Number one reason, of course, is the return of his quarterback Sam Darnold. The other reason is that the Cowboys have not been great versus pass-catching running backs. They have allowed the fourth-most receptions, third-most targets, fifth-most yards, and third-most red-zone targets to the running back position. With Bell seeing 94% of the snaps in the backfield he is one of the best cash-game options on the main slate. He is averaging right under 26 touches per game, and with only one touchdown scored he is bound for some positive regression. Also, Jets DST ($1,500) also needs to be considered for cash because of how cheap that price is.

https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1182318061942181888

For the Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) continues to come in at an extremely high-price. However, I believe that he can be a great GPP play because of how he disappointed as the chalk running back at home last week. In Week 5, Elliott was missing two key offensive linemen in La’el Collins and Tyron Smith. They should both be good to go in Week 6, which would help elevate Elliott’s production against a middle of the pack New York run defense.

Titans at Broncos

This game features my favorite sneaky receiver to play in DraftKings on the Week 6 main slate. That receiver is A.J. Brown ($4,200). Last week he actually had a touchdown from Marcus Mariota negated by a penalty. He played in 64.5% of the snaps in Week 5 which was the highest of the season. It was the first time all season that he out-snapped both Adam Humphries and Tajae Sharpe. He has low price, to go along with a matchup that suits him to have a blow-up game in Week 6. With the Broncos up next cornerback Chris Harris will most likely be shadowing Corey Davis allowing Brown to see more looks. Just last week Keenan Allen drew coverage from Harris and Chargers’ wide receiver two Mike Williams saw a season-high 13 targets. Brown ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per route run (2.38) of any players that have at least 19 targets.

For the Broncos, the best matchup on paper they have is at tight end. The Titans are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Noah Fant ($2,900) ranks in the top-ten in the NFL in routes run at tight end through the first five weeks. Fant is definitely the third option in the Broncos’ passing attack. Courtland Sutton ($5,000) also continues to be a value at wide receiver. He ranks tenth in the NFL in receiving yards (401).

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

DFS: Win Daily NFL DraftKings Cheat Sheet

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

Thank you for checking out the Win Daily DFS DraftKings cheat sheet. Here you will find the top plays from two of our top DFS experts: Dan Wehr and Nick Bretwisch. Each week the duo lists their favorite plays at each position. They also will be providing some value and punt options for each position...

5 years ago 0 comments

Premium

DFS: Win Daily NFL FanDuel Cheat Sheet

Jason Mezrahi 5 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Thank you for checking out the Win Daily DFS FanDuel cheat sheet. Here you will find the top plays from of our top DFS experts. Each week our Pros will list their favorite plays at each position. They also will be providing some value and punt options for each position to help you optimize your FanD...

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

NFL DFS Week 5 Reactions and Outlooks: Win Daily Dozen

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

NFL Week 5 is all but in the books. Let’s look at the biggest takeaways from all of Sunday’s action. We will analyze 12 major takeaways from the games played. Above all, we will also look ahead to Week 6 and see what edges we can get for the upcoming main slate. The prices discussed are for DraftKings.

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Will Fuller

All analysts at Win Daily were touting Will Fuller all week so I really hope you listened. Not only did he have a big game, but Fuller’s Week 5 performance was one for the ages. Via ESPN.com this was the highest Fantasy point total by any player since Jamaal Charles scored 59.5 points in Week 15 of 2013. Fuller is the first wide receiver to score that many points since Terrell Owens scored 54.8 in Week 16 in 2000. At his price of $4,500, he was so easy to fit into any lineup. Fuller caught 14 of 16 targets for 217 receiving yards and three touchdowns during Sunday’s 53-32 win against the Falcons. He scored over 50 fantasy points. The Deshaun Watson to Will Fuller stack scored over 100 fantasy points.

Fuller was owned in 20 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 31 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. A lot of people saw this big game coming for Fuller. With the Texans facing the Chiefs next week Fuller is bound to be extremely popular, even with his salary increased to $6,000.

Michael Thomas

Thomas secured 11 of 13 targets for 182 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. Thomas has not missed a step since Teddy Bridgewater took over, but his price was low at $6,600. In Week 6 his price has gone up to $7,800. He is going to have very high ownership because of this next week. But as sharp DFS players know, you should always fade the high-priced chalky wide receivers. We saw it this week with both Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. Both were over $7,700 and 20 percent ownership, and it did not pay off. Thomas was owned in 20 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 25 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest.

Amari Cooper

Will Fuller led Week 5 in receiving yards for a few hours before Amari Cooper went over 225 receiving yards in the later portion on Sunday. You need to identify top-end wide receiver talents at the cheaper price tags. Cooper had ownership of just 3.4 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. Someone to keep in mind that fits the high wide receiver talent pool under $7,000 for Week 6 is Odell Beckham Jr. at $6,800.

Aaron Jones

It’s a shame that not more people played Aaron Jones in Week 5. He was set up for a smash spot because of the injury to Jamaal Williams. There should have been no question of how many touches he would receive. Jones was owned in just 11.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 17.6 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. The main takeaway here from Jones’ four-touchdown performance is that injuries matter A LOT.

Injuries might be a more important factor than matchups. If you followed that type of thinking you would have played Jones over a guy with a great matchup in the same game in Ezekiel Elliott. He did not nearly have as much production in Week 6. One could make the argument that was because the Cowboys were banged up at the offensive line position.

Eagles D/ST

The rule for DFS has usually been to pay down at defense. However, lately this season we have seen defenses put up over 30 fantasy points. In most cases, it has been for expensive defenses that are in obvious great matchups. The Eagles D/ST had ownership of just 6.5 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest, and 3.2 percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. These ownership percentages were extremely low compared to the Panthers D/ST.

That unit was by far the highest owned on the main slate. They had ownership of 32.1 percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. They were also in 13.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. As we look to Week 6 with the Cowboys playing the Jets this might be a spot worth paying up for in both cash and GPP formats if Sam Darnold misses the game.

Adam Thielen

You know the old saying “Squeaky wheel gets the grease?” Well, nothing could have been more apparent on Sunday. Adam Thielen was the wheel getting all the grease in Minnesota. Thielen caught seven of eight targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Thielen had ownership of five percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. He had ownership of 13.1 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. In Week 6, Thielen gets an equally great matchup against the Eagles. His salary remains the same at $6,700.

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey is a pretty good football player. He scored 50.7 fantasy points in Week 5. He now has scored 30 or more points in four of his five games so far this season. In the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest his ownership was just at 56.1 percent. What that translates to is that almost 44 percent of lineups did not feature him in cash. As a public service announcement to all, when McCaffrey is on the main slate you must lock him into your cash lineups. He is a must-play. However, we will be without him in Week 6, because the Panthers are playing an early game on Sunday.

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Austin Hooper

We love targeting tight ends that play the Arizona Cardinals. Well, at least we like good tight ends that play them. The most popular play at tight end in Tyler Eifert was only able to score 3.4 fantasy points against the Cardinals in Week 5. He was in 26.8 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. In Week 6, the Cardinals will host the Atlanta Falcons. That is the prime spot for Austin Hooper. He is coming off another productive performance in Week 5 where he had six receptions on nine targets for 56 yards. The nine targets were a team-high. With 42 targets through the first five weeks, Hooper is entering elite status at tight end. He will surely be heavily owned in Week 6, but all signs point to a productive outing.

Auden Tate

DFS players should always be fading the high-priced chalkier wide receivers. But we should always be buying the low-priced chalkier wide receivers. That receiver was Auden Tate in Week 5. He was priced at $3,500. Tate was owned in 35.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was owned in a whopping 77 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Though things looked bleak in the first half for Tate with Andy Dalton completing just four passes, he turned things around in the second half. Tate finished the day with one touchdown reception and three receptions on a total of six targets. He is going to be $4,500 in Week 6, but will most likely see coverage from Marlon Humphrey from Baltimore, so he is somebody I will be fading.

Leonard Fournette

Heading into Week 5, Fournette was averaging right around 24 touches per game but had yet to score a touchdown. He finally broke his touchdown drought by scoring from one yard out. Fournette was owned in 14.3 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was owned in 21 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Fournette had 27 touches in Week 5 and because of the guaranteed volume, he needs to be considered in Week 6 with his salary at just $6,700. The matchup is difficult though, with the Jaguars playing the Saints. New Orleans gives up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. Fournette profiles as a GPP play in Week 6.

DJ Chark

There may not be a bigger WR surprise than D.J. Chark. After Week 5, he now has five touchdown receptions in just as many games. Chark was owned in just 3.6 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. Now people are going to see the Saints matchup and project Chark to be a bust in Week 6. Marshon Lattimore is coming off a game where he just completely blanked Mike Evans. However, Evans and Chark are two completely different wide receivers. Evans is a size specimen whereas Chark is a guy that possesses 4.34 speed. At just $5,500 entering Week 6 Chark is too cheap. The Saints still allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.

Dede Westbrook, who is priced at $5,100, is also worth considering. The Saints have struggled against slot receivers this season. Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp all went over 100 yards when they played the Saints. Westbrook is coming off his best game of the year, as he had seven receptions on 11 targets for 82 receiving yards.

Dalvin Cook

No matter what team Cook faces he always seems to deliver for his fantasy owners. Cook was owned in 13.2 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in just 12.1 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Cook has now scored at least 19 fantasy points in every single game this season. He should be considered a lock-in your lineup in Week 6 when the Vikings play the Eagles. Though the Eagles have not allowed more than 50 rushing yards to an opposing rusher this season they have allowed 13 receptions to the position over the past two weeks. Cook has seen 14 targets in his last two games and is averaging 22.6 touches per game. His salary remains at $8,400 in Week 6.

Image Via Jeffrey Beall

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 5 NFL DFS Podcast and Full Gameday Guide

Edwin Porras 5 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Our Founder, the “The Half a Million Dollar Man”, Jason Mezrahi and DFS PRO Dan Wehr welcome you in for NFL DFS Week 5. These two major tournament winners break down each position and game for Week 5 from their DFS perspectives. They discuss a solid GPP approach and go through their favorite plays and game stacks.

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Week 5 NFL DFS Podcast: Game Previews and Picks for Week 5

Jason and Dan look through the full field of Week Five plays on FanDuel and DraftKings. They lay out their favorite stacks and they both like paying up at RB and have several options for you. Our DFS Pros discuss player ownership and which stacks will be over-owned and under-owned. Listen below and get ready to win big.

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WEEK FIVE NFL DFS GAMEDAY GUIDE: ALL YOU NEED TO PREPARE

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-Week Five NFL DFS DraftKings Cheatsheet

-Week Five NFL DFS FanDuel Cheatsheet

-Week Five NFL DFS FanDuel Projection Model

-GPP Picks of Destiny from DFS Pro David Jones

-The King’s Week Five Value Selections

-The Complete Main Slate Preview

-Week Five NFL DFS DraftKings Projection Model

-Week Five Video Preview with The King, Jason Mezrahi and Matt Striker

-Week Five Targets and Touches Outlooks

-Week Five Main Slate Video Preview

-Week Five Injury Breakdown

-Nifty Plays for Week Five

-The Best Cash Game Plays

-Our Favorite Week Five Stacks

-Seasonal Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em

-Week Five QB Guide

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week Five: Touches and Targets Outlooks

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Five 12-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: Julio Jones (ATL) ($8200 FD|$7700 DK)

77% Snap Share. 37 Targets, 23 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Four TDs.

Julio Jones comes in as a top play once again in Week Five. Bit of a disappointing performance in Week Four as Matt Ryan threw the ball 53 times for nearly 400 yards and Jones only drew seven of those targets. Julio Jones and the Falcons will look to rebound against a beatable Houston Texans secondary and a defense that ranks 13th overall DVOA.

NFL DFS WR: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) ($8500 FD|$7800 DK)

100% Snap Share. 36 Targets, 24 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins correlation will likely be the heaviest chalk in Week Five. I’m not as crazy as everyone else is about this matchup. Yes, the Falcons rank 25th in terms of getting pressure on the QB but Houston ranks 31st in allowing pressure against the QB (11.9% ADJ. Sack Rate). Atlanta faced a Tennessee team in Week Four that struggles the most in the league in protecting the QB and managed to not register even one sack. If the offensive line can give Watson the protection he absolutely needs to be successful than I can see Houston having a great day, but it is risky.

NFL DFS RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) ($8900 FD|$8700 DK)

100% Snap Share, 31 Targets, 25 Receptions for 218 yards, 86 carries for 411 yards, 6 yards per touch, Four TDs.

I predicted 30 touches last week for Christian McCaffrey and he ended up with 37 touches for 179 all-purpose yards and a TD. The entire offense revolves around him and he will continue to receiver monster work loads week in and out. CMC is once again viable in all formats in Week Five.

NFL DFS RB: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) ($8800 FD|$8300 DK)

71% Snap Share, 14 Targets, 11 Receptions, 63 yards. 73 carries for 324 yards, 4.4 yards per touch, Three TDs.

After starting out looking like the a perennial defense, the Packers have come back down to reality and rank 26th against the run in Week Five. They surrender over 140 yards per game on the ground but they do have a very good secondary. This is clearly Zeke’s day and I will have plenty of shares.

Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: Adam Thielen (MIN) ($6900 FD|$6700 DK)

93% Snap Share. 22 Targets, 13 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Three TDs.

Adam Thielen expressed his frutration with the poor passing performance by the Vikings offense. All the right pieces are there, unfortunately it falls on one guy and that is Kirk Cousins. Thielen is in a great spot, as is Stefon Diggs. I’d like to think we can expect a breakout performance in the passing game against the Giants who allow nearly 300 yards through the air per game, but Cousins is just not getting it done.

NFL DFS WR: Alshon Jeffrey (PHI) ($6700 FD|$5900 DK)

83% Snap Share. 15 Targets, 8 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

Very nice matchup for Alshon Jeffrey against a Jets defense that gives up nearly 300 yards through the air per game. His numbers aren’t there just due to injury early in the season but he is a good play at a fair price, particularly on DK.

NFL DFS TE: Mark Andrews (BAL) ($6100 FD|$4800 DK)

48% Snap Share. 32 targets, 23 receptions, 266 receiving yards. Three TDs.

You didn’t fall asleep on my boy, did you? Mark Andrews has been dealing with a foot injury all season but heads into Week Five without an injury designation (finally) and practiced in full on Friday. The Steelers do struggle defending slot receivers and Andrews is lining up in the slot at a 40% clip. Outside of Andrews being Lamar Jackson’s favorite target, his size advantage, and the fact that he’s quickly becoming a top tier NFL tight end, I see no reason not to play him.

NFL DFS WR: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) ($5800 FD|$6000 DK)

99% Snap Share. 36 targets, 23 receptions, 300 yards, Two TDs.

Christian Kirk is out so that’s going to give Fitz a nice boost in looks. The Bengals look decent against the pass, but with David Johnson in such a good spot I just see this Cardinals offense being able to stay on balance and effectively throw the ball just as well as they will run it on Sunday.

NFL DFS WR: Tyler Boyd (CIN) ($6700 FD|$6500 DK)

87% Snap Share. 38 Targets, 27 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

Same situation as the Cardinals, John Ross is out for the next 6-8 weeks so Boyd should draw a nice chunk of those targets against a sub-par defense.

NFL DFS RB: Joe Mixon (CIN) ($7100 FD|$6100 DK)

95% Snap Share. 54 touches, 202 yards, One TD.

The Bengals offensive line has been questionable, but the Cardinals surrender nearly 150 yards per game on the ground. Mixon is still looking for his footing on the season and this is as good of a spot as any to find it.

Low Tier/Punts

NFL DFS WR: Will Fuller (HOU) ($5700 FD|$4500 DK)

100% Snap Share. 23 Targets, 14 Receptions, 13 yards per reception.

NFL DFS WR: KeeSean Johnson (ARI) ($4600 FD|$3500 DK)

63% Snap Share. 19 Targets, 11 Receptions, 10 yards per reception.

Christian Kirk is out, boost in targets for Keesean Johnson.

NFL DFS WR: Auden Tate (CIN) ($5300 FD|$3500 DK)

73% Snap Share. 18 Targets, 11 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

I hate Auden Tate’s price on Fanduel but I’m more than fine with the $3500 tag on DK. Tate should see a boost as well with no John Ross.

NFL DFS WR: John Brown (BUF) ($5500 FD|$5100 DK)

90% Snap Share. 34 Targets, 23 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Two TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Phillip Dorsett (NEP) ($5400 FD|$4900 DK)

71% Snap Share. 23 Targets, 15 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Three TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Calvin Ridley (ATL) ($5400 FD|$4900 DK)

76% Snap Share. 23 Targets, 16 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Two TDs.

NFL DFS TE: Tyler Eifert (CIN) ($4600 FD|$3300 DK)

45% Snap Share. 17 Targets, 11 Receptions, 81 yards, One TD.

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5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL Week 5 DFS: Main Slate Preview

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Are you ready for Week 5 DFS? We are a quarter of a way through the season and we finally have a nice sample size to work with. We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys and fades via DraftKings prices.

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Early Games

Cardinals at Bengals

Quarterback Kyler Murray is set up for success in Week 5 against the Bengals. He is priced at $6,300 on DraftKings, because of the great matchup. The Bengals have allowed at least 16 fantasy points to all quarterbacks they have faced this season, along with multiple touchdowns passes to three quarterbacks in four games. There is also rushing upside for Murray versus the Bengals. They allowed 46 rushing yards to Josh Allen in Week 3 on nine rushing attempts. Murray has rushed for 96 yards in the last two weeks. In GPPs you can stack Murray with David Johnson ($7,500). With no Christian Kirk in this game, Johnson should see even more volume in the passing game. Luckily for him the Bengals are allowing the most receptions to the running back position.

On the Bengals side, wide receiver Auden Tate is going to be the chalk low-priced receiver at just $3,500. He has seen 14 targets over the past two weeks and has led the Bengals in receptions and receiving yards over the same time span. With John Ross placed on injured reserve, Tate should see even more opportunities to produce against a very weak Arizona secondary. Both defenses are also in play. Both of them rank at the bottom of the league in terms of quarterback sacks allowed. I slightly favor the Bengals at $2,500.

Ravens at Steelers

Via Pro Football Focus, 68.2% of Mason Rudolph’s passing yards have come from yards after the catch. That percentage is by far the highest in the NFL. Something like that is usually not sustainable except in this case versus the Ravens. They have allowed the most yards after the catch to receivers. Marlon Humphrey shut down Odell Beckham Jr. last week, but that was with him playing on the outside. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,400) should primarily remain in the slot, giving him some sneaky bounce-back appeal at low ownership. Smith-Schuster ranks fourth in the NFL in yards after the catch (8.1).

DraftKings continues to undervalue Mark Andrews. He is priced at just $4,800 despite the fact that he has seen at least seven targets in every single game this season. His target market share of the Ravens’ offense is at 23.53%, which ranks Top Five at the position.

Falcons at Texans

This is going to be a great game to stack for DFS in Week 5. It combines two high-powered offenses with two bad defenses. Deshaun Watson (at $6,700) deserves consideration in cash games with his rushing floor and Matt Ryan (at $5,900) is a player to get exposure to in GPPs. This game also seems like a great get-right matchup for receivers that have struggled thus far. This includes guys like Julio Jones ($7,700), Calvin Ridley ($4,900), DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800), and Will Fuller ($4,500), who has the most air yards of any receiver who does not have a touchdown reception. The Texans also have the third-highest implied team total on the slate, making their lead running back Carlos Hyde (at $4,300) a good value. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most rushing attempts to the running back position and have allowed the most rushing touchdowns on the road this season.

https://twitter.com/DBro_FFB/status/1179088611876192256

Bills at Titans

The Tennesse Titans DST ($3,000) and Derrick Henry ($6,000) are both great plays on DraftKings in Week 5. The Titans are favorites at home against the Buffalo Bills, who will have either turnover-prone Josh Allen or backup Matt Barkley starting at quarterback. The Titans have not allowed more than 20 points yet this season and have totaled 13 sacks. Henry ranks third in the NFL in team market share of carries and is getting starting left tackle Taylor Lewan back in the starting lineup.

The only players on the Bills to consider are a few of their receivers. John Brown ($5,100), Cole Beasley ($4,600), and Dawson Knox ($3,100) are all in play. Brown is going to be covered by Malcolm Butler, who has allowed the fifth most-yards in coverage this season. Beasley and Knox should see the majority of underneath targets. If the Titans shut down the long ball, that will funnel the passing game to those two players. We saw it last week when Austin Hooper and Mohamed Sanu combined for 23 targets when they faced the Titans.

Bears at Raiders (London)

Outside of the DST at $3,800, the only other Bears to consider are their running backs. Both David Montgomery ($5,200) and Tarik Cohen ($4,800) have interesting appeal in Week 5. In three games with the backup quarterback, Chase Daniel, Cohen has totaled 27 targets. Montgomery could be the greatest beneficiary of a positive game script if the Bears get up early on the Raiders. He has seen an increased workload every single week this season and that trend should continue in Week 5. Keep an eye on the status of running back Mike Davis. He was a healthy scratch last week.

https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1179491356542210050

For the Raiders, the only viable play here is tight end Darren Waller at $5,000. He is commanding 30% of targets in the offense, which is fourth-highest in the NFL of all players and he has still not scored a touchdown. Regression to the mean clearly shows that Waller is going to see the endzone sooner rather than later.

Jaguars at Panthers

The best-valued defense on the slate is definitely the Panthers DST at $2,600. They have scored double-digit fantasy points for three straight weeks and have 17 sacks over that time span. Jaguars’ quarterback Gardner Minshew was sacked five times last week. Also, you will want to keep tabs on the status of Jalen Ramsey. If Ramsey misses the game on Sunday, that would be a huge boost for both Curtis Samuel at $4,500 and D.J. Moore at $5,200. Without Ramsey last week both of the top receivers for the Denver Broncos scored 18 and 24 fantasy points, respectively.

For Jacksonville, the only player to focus on is Leonard Fournette at $6,400. He still has not scored a touchdown yet this season and that trend is going to end soon. The amount of touches Fournette is seeing is just too many for him to have not scored. He is seeing over 90% of the running workload and 20% in the passing game. Fournette has 96 total touches this season, which translates to 24 per game. At this rate, it is just a matter of time until Fournette finds the end zone.

Vikings at Giants

Kirk Cousins (at $5,300) and Adam Thielen (at $6,700) is a stack that needs to be considered in GPPs in Week 5. All the talks throughout the week have been about doing more in the passing game. Specifically, Cousins also apologized for not getting Thielen the ball enough. This could easily be a huge blowup spot for them in this matchup versus the Giants. New York ranks fourth-worst against the wide receiver position and seventh-worst against the quarterback position in fantasy points allowed.

I am fading Wayne Gallman versus this stout Minnesota defense. They have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. His fantasy points were heavily inflated by touchdowns last week. The Vikings have allowed just one rushing touchdown to running backs.

Buccaneers at Saints

Tight end Jared Cook (at $3,400) is a sneaky play in Week 5. Right now quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is not forcing the ball downfield, but against Tampa Bay, the Saints may be forced to be more aggressive. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Buccaneers’ DVOA against short passes ranks seventh-best, whereas against deep passes it falls to 18th. Cook is coming off his highest target total of the season (six) and the Buccaneers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position. Cook owns the second-highest average depth of target on the Saints.

I am not so sure I am buying into the Tampa Bay offense in Week 5. Jameis Winston (at $6,200) is the fifth-highest priced quarterback on the slate but has never played well versus the Saints. He has never thrown for more than two touchdowns in seven career games versus New Orleans. He has only thrown for 300 yards once against them.

Patriots at Redskins

Another week for the Patriots and once again via the FanDuel Sportsbook they are favored by more than 15 points. So what does this mean for the offense in terms of DFS? Well, I think you can trust Tom Brady at $6,500. The Redskins defense is just bad. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position this season. I’m not even sure you need to stack Brady with anyone in cash. For GPPs, I like stacking Brady with Josh Gordon at $6,100 against the Redskins, who are the second-worst team versus wide receivers. Sony Michel ($5,500) is a nice GPP play for those that want to pivot off the Patriots’ passing game. If you decide to build a Patriots stack, the play back is tight end Jeremy Sprinkle at $2,500. Starting tight end Vernon Davis is currently in the concussion protocol and could easily miss the game on Sunday.

Jets at Eagles

Quarterback Carson Wentz (at $6,100) is a lock across cash game lineups. The Jets’ secondary is very bad and Wentz should be able to take full advantage of them. Wentz has scored at least 19.54 fantasy points in every single game this season. A Wentz to Zach Ertz ($6,000) stack is also definitely in play in GPPs. Ertz has at least seven targets in every game this season, but like Darren Waller has not scored a touchdown yet. He should see the end zone on Sunday. There’s also a chance that some New York receivers find the end zone on Sunday.

The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position this season. For that reason, Robby Anderson ($4,500) and Jamison Crowder ($4,300) are both in play as cheap value receivers.

Late Games

Broncos at Chargers

I love playing Austin Ekeler at $6,700 this week. The Broncos defense gave up over 200 rushing yards to Leonard Fournette last week, and until we see the true split with Ekeler and Melvin Gordon I will continue to go back to Ekeler. I understand fading him in cash formats, but in GPPs Ekeler is a lock for me.

Cornerback Casey Heyward projects to shadow cover Courtland Sutton ($4,900) making Emmanuel Sanders ($5,100) the better pivot play despite the slightly higher salary. Tight end Noah Fant (at $2,800), is another interesting punt play option. His snap rate increased to 73% in Week 4. He has seen at least four targets and had 29 receiving yards in every single game this season. The Chargers have allowed the second-most touchdowns to the tight end position.

Packers at Cowboys

Jaire Alexander is emerging as a top cornerback, but he does not shadow cover the opponent’s best wide receiver. 70% of his coverage has been out wide at the left cornerback position. Amari Cooper ($6,800) has played at the right receiver position just 42% of the time. After a disappointing Week 4, people will be off Cooper, especially with more being drawn in towards Ezekiel Elliott (at $8,300) in his matchup versus the league’s third-worst defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. The sharp move is to play them both in GPPs along with quarterback Dak Prescott at $6,000 for the trio Cowboys stack.

I really like Aaron Jones ($5,900) in tournaments if Jamaal Williams does not play in the game. With Davante Adams likely to also be held out of the game due to a turf toe injury, look for the Packers to utilize more of the running game. Jones should see plenty of volume as both a rusher and receiver. Also, possible sleeper WR Jake Kumerow at $3,800 in mind to see an increased snap share if Adams is inactive on Sunday.

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5 years ago 0 comments

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