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NFL DFS Week 5 Reactions and Outlooks: Win Daily Dozen

NFL Week 5 is all but in the books. Let’s look at the biggest takeaways from all of Sunday’s action. We will analyze 12 major takeaways from the games played. Above all, we will also look ahead to Week 6 and see what edges we can get for the upcoming main slate. The prices discussed are for DraftKings.

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Will Fuller

All analysts at Win Daily were touting Will Fuller all week so I really hope you listened. Not only did he have a big game, but Fuller’s Week 5 performance was one for the ages. Via ESPN.com this was the highest Fantasy point total by any player since Jamaal Charles scored 59.5 points in Week 15 of 2013. Fuller is the first wide receiver to score that many points since Terrell Owens scored 54.8 in Week 16 in 2000. At his price of $4,500, he was so easy to fit into any lineup. Fuller caught 14 of 16 targets for 217 receiving yards and three touchdowns during Sunday’s 53-32 win against the Falcons. He scored over 50 fantasy points. The Deshaun Watson to Will Fuller stack scored over 100 fantasy points.

Fuller was owned in 20 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 31 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. A lot of people saw this big game coming for Fuller. With the Texans facing the Chiefs next week Fuller is bound to be extremely popular, even with his salary increased to $6,000.

Michael Thomas

Thomas secured 11 of 13 targets for 182 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. Thomas has not missed a step since Teddy Bridgewater took over, but his price was low at $6,600. In Week 6 his price has gone up to $7,800. He is going to have very high ownership because of this next week. But as sharp DFS players know, you should always fade the high-priced chalky wide receivers. We saw it this week with both Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. Both were over $7,700 and 20 percent ownership, and it did not pay off. Thomas was owned in 20 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 25 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest.

Amari Cooper

Will Fuller led Week 5 in receiving yards for a few hours before Amari Cooper went over 225 receiving yards in the later portion on Sunday. You need to identify top-end wide receiver talents at the cheaper price tags. Cooper had ownership of just 3.4 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. Someone to keep in mind that fits the high wide receiver talent pool under $7,000 for Week 6 is Odell Beckham Jr. at $6,800.

Aaron Jones

It’s a shame that not more people played Aaron Jones in Week 5. He was set up for a smash spot because of the injury to Jamaal Williams. There should have been no question of how many touches he would receive. Jones was owned in just 11.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 17.6 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. The main takeaway here from Jones’ four-touchdown performance is that injuries matter A LOT.

Injuries might be a more important factor than matchups. If you followed that type of thinking you would have played Jones over a guy with a great matchup in the same game in Ezekiel Elliott. He did not nearly have as much production in Week 6. One could make the argument that was because the Cowboys were banged up at the offensive line position.

Eagles D/ST

The rule for DFS has usually been to pay down at defense. However, lately this season we have seen defenses put up over 30 fantasy points. In most cases, it has been for expensive defenses that are in obvious great matchups. The Eagles D/ST had ownership of just 6.5 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest, and 3.2 percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. These ownership percentages were extremely low compared to the Panthers D/ST.

That unit was by far the highest owned on the main slate. They had ownership of 32.1 percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. They were also in 13.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. As we look to Week 6 with the Cowboys playing the Jets this might be a spot worth paying up for in both cash and GPP formats if Sam Darnold misses the game.

Adam Thielen

You know the old saying “Squeaky wheel gets the grease?” Well, nothing could have been more apparent on Sunday. Adam Thielen was the wheel getting all the grease in Minnesota. Thielen caught seven of eight targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Thielen had ownership of five percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. He had ownership of 13.1 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. In Week 6, Thielen gets an equally great matchup against the Eagles. His salary remains the same at $6,700.

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey is a pretty good football player. He scored 50.7 fantasy points in Week 5. He now has scored 30 or more points in four of his five games so far this season. In the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest his ownership was just at 56.1 percent. What that translates to is that almost 44 percent of lineups did not feature him in cash. As a public service announcement to all, when McCaffrey is on the main slate you must lock him into your cash lineups. He is a must-play. However, we will be without him in Week 6, because the Panthers are playing an early game on Sunday.

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Austin Hooper

We love targeting tight ends that play the Arizona Cardinals. Well, at least we like good tight ends that play them. The most popular play at tight end in Tyler Eifert was only able to score 3.4 fantasy points against the Cardinals in Week 5. He was in 26.8 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. In Week 6, the Cardinals will host the Atlanta Falcons. That is the prime spot for Austin Hooper. He is coming off another productive performance in Week 5 where he had six receptions on nine targets for 56 yards. The nine targets were a team-high. With 42 targets through the first five weeks, Hooper is entering elite status at tight end. He will surely be heavily owned in Week 6, but all signs point to a productive outing.

Auden Tate

DFS players should always be fading the high-priced chalkier wide receivers. But we should always be buying the low-priced chalkier wide receivers. That receiver was Auden Tate in Week 5. He was priced at $3,500. Tate was owned in 35.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was owned in a whopping 77 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Though things looked bleak in the first half for Tate with Andy Dalton completing just four passes, he turned things around in the second half. Tate finished the day with one touchdown reception and three receptions on a total of six targets. He is going to be $4,500 in Week 6, but will most likely see coverage from Marlon Humphrey from Baltimore, so he is somebody I will be fading.

Leonard Fournette

Heading into Week 5, Fournette was averaging right around 24 touches per game but had yet to score a touchdown. He finally broke his touchdown drought by scoring from one yard out. Fournette was owned in 14.3 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was owned in 21 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Fournette had 27 touches in Week 5 and because of the guaranteed volume, he needs to be considered in Week 6 with his salary at just $6,700. The matchup is difficult though, with the Jaguars playing the Saints. New Orleans gives up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. Fournette profiles as a GPP play in Week 6.

DJ Chark

There may not be a bigger WR surprise than D.J. Chark. After Week 5, he now has five touchdown receptions in just as many games. Chark was owned in just 3.6 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. Now people are going to see the Saints matchup and project Chark to be a bust in Week 6. Marshon Lattimore is coming off a game where he just completely blanked Mike Evans. However, Evans and Chark are two completely different wide receivers. Evans is a size specimen whereas Chark is a guy that possesses 4.34 speed. At just $5,500 entering Week 6 Chark is too cheap. The Saints still allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.

Dede Westbrook, who is priced at $5,100, is also worth considering. The Saints have struggled against slot receivers this season. Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp all went over 100 yards when they played the Saints. Westbrook is coming off his best game of the year, as he had seven receptions on 11 targets for 82 receiving yards.

Dalvin Cook

No matter what team Cook faces he always seems to deliver for his fantasy owners. Cook was owned in 13.2 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in just 12.1 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Cook has now scored at least 19 fantasy points in every single game this season. He should be considered a lock-in your lineup in Week 6 when the Vikings play the Eagles. Though the Eagles have not allowed more than 50 rushing yards to an opposing rusher this season they have allowed 13 receptions to the position over the past two weeks. Cook has seen 14 targets in his last two games and is averaging 22.6 touches per game. His salary remains at $8,400 in Week 6.

Image Via Jeffrey Beall

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