Tag:

Brad Keselowski

NASCAR DFS: Auto Club 400 Analysis

Chris Bouchard 4 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

The NASCAR Pennzoil 400 last week again did not break the bank even though I threw a ton of lineups at it. Many DFS cashes, but not the one perfect lineup needed to make serious cash. This week, we head to Fontana, California for the 24th Auto Club 400. Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson have won here three times each. No one else in this year’s field has won multiple times, but Kurt Busch, Keselowski, Truex Jr., Harvick, and Larson have each taken the checkered flag at this event. Roush Fenway leads at Fontana with 6 wins and the manufacturer Ford has 10 victories, but neither have dominated the event.

Alex Bowman dominated Friday as he led both practice sessions showing very good speed. Kurt Busch also did very well with the 4th best speed in each session. Kyle Larson, Matt DiBenedetto, Ryan Blaney, and Brad Keselowski also were able to gain the top 10 speed in each session. Rookies Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick also showed some promising speed as well as. I think both of these new drivers will win this season.

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Qualifying Saturday was lead by Clint Bowyer who took the pole with a speed of 179,614 mph. Multiple time winner Jimmie Johnson will join Bowyer in the front row followed by Alex Bowman, who dominated practice, and Kurt Busch who will be in row #2. Other notables in qualifying include Keselowski in 15th, Kyle Busch in 17th, Hamlin in 28th, and Martin Truex Jr. who will start in the rear of the field in 38th after having troubles with pre-qualifying inspections.

Martin Truex Jr. is going to be hard to pass up with all of those points available for position differential. I am still riding Kyle Busch for the win, but Alex Bowman’s performance so far this week is hard to ignore. While I will fade him to win with his low odds, I will play him a bit in DFS as a potential dominator.

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My top DFS plays at each price tier this week are listed below. My mix of players with huge position differential possibilities and those who could dominate the race will hopefully get me the coverage needed. I will be working my DFS lineups late into the night Saturday and will post on twitter and discord my driver usage early Sunday. I will be playing far fewer lineups this week, but have not yet landed on a specific number.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kyle Busch $11,300
Martin Truex Jr. $10,400
Kevin Harvick $11,600

NASCAR DFS Mid-Tier

Alex Bowman $8,800
Aric Almirola $8,300
Kurt Busch $8,600

NASCAR DFS Value Plays

Christopher Bell $7,000
Matt DiBenedetto $7,600
Bubba Wallace $6,100

I also like 5 plays on DraftKings Sports Book to win the race. I am a bit more chalky this week with 3 of my pick being in the top 5 in odds. Kyle Busch to my pick to win this week.

***DraftKings Picks to Win the Auto Club 400 in Las Vegas***

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4 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR DFS: Pennzoil 400 Analysis

Chris Bouchard 4 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

The NASCAR Daytona 500 did not go exactly to plan, as avoiding the “Big One” is very difficult. At times, I was up 4x-5x, but I ended up slightly down after those last 2 crashes. I probably should have play 150 plus lineups. Hamlin had the best car and deserved the win.

NASCAR heads to Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube. This is a 1.5 mile oval that is running this race for the 23rd time. Jimmie Johnson has won this race 4 times, which is two more than Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick who are the only other multiple winners. Joey Logano won last year’s edition and is joined by Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch as the other one-time winners in this year’s field. Keselowski and Truex Jr. also have won on this track in the South Point 400 run in September the last two years.

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The practice sessions heading into qualifying were interesting as 2 Ford’s driven by Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer was in the top three of both sessions. Jimmie Johnson led the 2nd practice with a speed of 179.432 which topped the day. Bowman, DiBenedetto, Larson, and Blaney were the others who were in the top 10 of both sessions. Ross Chastain also looked good driving the #6 to a 6th place finish in session #2 replacing Ryan Newman.

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Saturday’s qualifying was canceled due to rain which put Kyle Busch on the pole followed by Truex Jr., Harvick, and Hamlin in the first 2 rows. All the power players on top leaves values play at a minimum. I will lean on those who did well in practice or have had decent success in Las Vegas. Kyle Busch, Hamlin, and Bell will start from the back of the field but will be scored on their starting position. This makes them difficult plays unless you’re looking to be contrarian.

My top DFS plays at each price tier this week are listed below. I was very torn on how strong to play my top picks. I decided to play hard on those I thought could dominate in laps led and position differential.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kevin Harvick $12,000
Brad Keselowski $11,100
Martin Truex Jr. $11,600

NASCAR DFS Mid-Tier

Clint Bowyer $8,000
Aric Almirola $7,800
Jimmie Johnson $8,400

NASCAR DFS Value Plays

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,600
Daniel Suarez $6,000
Ross Chastain $6,100

I am working on all of my lineups currently and will be posting these on twitter either later tonight or early Sunday AM on twitter.

I also like 7 plays on DraftKings Sports Book to win the race. My #1 pick would be Clint Bowyer at 25/1, but I think there is value with the other plays too.

***DraftKings Picks to Win the Pennzoil 400 in Las Vegas***

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4 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

NASCAR DFS: Final DraftKings Daytona 500 Analysis

Chris Bouchard 4 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

The NASCAR field is finally set for the 62nd Daytona 500 this Sunday. The 2 Bluegreen Vacations duel races on Thursday help set the starting lineup. The first Duel race was won by Joey Logano who led 19 laps. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. continued his good showing at Daytona with 27 led laps and an 8th place finish. Only Daniel Suarez was not running at the end after his crash. The 2nd Duel race was won by William Byron. Kevin Harvick led the most laps at 34 and finished 4th followed by 12 laps led by Alex Bowman who was the pole-sitter but finished 15th. As with the first duel, only one driver J.J Yeley was off the grid at the finish after the accident.

***Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1 At DAYTONA***

***Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 At DAYTONA***

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Based on the finishes in the Duel races, we are going to have some chalk in DFS Sunday. Stenhouse Jr. leads everyone on the pole followed by Bowman and Duel Winners Logano and Byron.

Friday’s practice was lead by William Byron followed by Ryan Preece and Chase Elliott as Chevrolet dominated taking the top 7 spots for top speed. On Saturday, Joey Logano leads the afternoon practice session as Ford dominated.

Kyle Busch is going to be the top chalk starting in the 28th position. Hamlin 21st, Blaney 27th, and Elliott 25th will also be very highly owned. Only Bowman 2nd and Logano 3rd intrigue me at the top. I see Logano winning this race and leading the most laps. Kyle Busch and Hamlin would be my next 2 choices for top DFS point-getters.

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I have adjusted my top NASCAR plays at each pricing tier based on the starting grid, duel races, practicing, and most importantly the eye test.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Kyle Busch $9,800
Joey Logano $10,500
Denny Hamlin $10,400

Mid-Tier

Erik Jones $7,900
Matt DiBenedetto $7,800
Jimmie Johnson $8,200

Value Plays

Christopher Bell $6,700
Brendan Gaughan $7,200
Tyler Reddick $6,400

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4 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Martinsville

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Just 4 events left after a crazy finish in Kansas that saw Joey Logano edge out Brad Keselowski for the last of the 8 playoff spots. Now we head to Martinsville in NASCAR DFS to start the final-four playoff push for Miami. Kyle Busch leads the playoff standings with 46 points followed closely by Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.

***Current Playoff Standings. The top 4 after Martinsville, Texas, and Phoenix race for the title in Miami on November 17th***

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The Martinsville Speedway is a 0.52 mile track that opened in 1947. The STP 500 is ran in the Spring and this race, the First Data 500, is always in the Fall. Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports have dominated this event in the past as Johnson has 6 wins, with the last in 2016, and Hendrick Motorsports has 16 wins since 1987. Chevrolet dominated with 6 straight wins from 2011 to 2016, but Toyota and Ford have won the last two with Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. Denny Hamlin is the only other multiple winner of this event, winning back to back in 2009-2010. Johnson and Hamlin also have won the Spring STP 500 3 times each with Brad Keselowski winning it twice.

Here were my pre-qualifying NASCAR DFS rankings. This is a race where the cream usually rises to the top, and I like to choose drivers that qualify well. Sometimes you are forced to go outside the top 10 for value, but otherwise the top is best. You will also see the best drivers are slightly more expensive this week.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Denny Hamlin $11,000
Joey Logano $10,100
Kyle Busch $11,800

Mid-Tier

Alex Bowman $8,300
William Byron $8,000
Jimmie Johnson $8,100

Value Plays

Ty Dillon $6,200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,000
Paul Menard $7,100

Qualifying was not too surprising. Denny Hamlin took the pole and will be my main play for the race. Chase Elliott qualified 2nd, but due to a blown engine in practice, he will be starting at the rear of the field. The other playoff drivers were all over the grid with Truex Jr. 3rd, Blaney 6th, Joey Logano 10th, Kyle Busch 13th, Larson 14th, and Kevin Harvick a disappointing 22nd.

I decided to play only 3 lineups this weekend. Hamlin is in all three of them, then I mixed in the rest of my favorite plays. I was planning on playing deeper, but I decided to go with less lineups in more contests. My best week ever in NASCAR DFS was using one lineup that pushed over 600 points, so lets hope this strategy works again. My driver usage is below. Good Luck!

***DraftKings DFS Picks for Martinsville***

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I am going with the under for both drivers in this play. Elliott is at the back of the pack to start and I do not see Busch contending. Neither will lead enough laps to get the needed Fantasy Points.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Kansas

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Just 5 events left after an amazing race at Talladega last weekend. 10 drivers are still in the chase for the last 6 spots in the playoffs with Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney already guaranteed spots into the next round. The Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Sunday should be very interesting as some below the cut line are in must-win situations. Those above the cut line need to stay aggressive, but must avoid a DNF.

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The Kansas Speedway is a 1.5 mile track that opened in 2001 and has become a main cog in the playoff chase. Chevrolet has won 10 of the 18 events and 3 drivers in the field (Johnson, Harvick, and Logano) have won twice. Chase Elliott won last year’s event. The Digital Ally 400 event is also held at the Kansas track in May. Harvick and Johnson have each also won this event. Brad Keselowski is the only 2-time winner including this year’s event, which had a nice mix of chalk and value plays in the top 10.

***2019 DIGITAL ALLY 400 RESULTS AT KANSAS***

Below were my pre-qualifying DFS rankings. There was a huge focus on the drivers in the playoffs, but narrowing in on the value plays with Top-10 potential is crucial.

High Priced

Joey Logano $9,800
Brad Keselowski $9,600
Kevin Harvick $11,000

Mid-Tier

Clint Bowyer $8,800
Jimmie Johnson $8,000
William Byron $8,200

Value Plays

Chris Buescher $6,700
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,000
Ryan Newman $7,300

Qualifying gave two playoff chase drivers some issues as Kevin Harvick was not able to qualify after after failing inspection and will start at the rear of the field. Martin Truex Jr. failed inspection twice and qualified 11th. Both have lost their crew chiefs for rest of the weekend. Harvick instantly becomes the chalk of the event in DFS. It will be hard to fade him. Rookie Daniel Hemric took the pole at just over 178 MPH. David Ragan was a surprise #2 qualifier followed by Blaney, Keselowski, and Larson in the top 5.

Kyle Busch continues to qualify poorly, finishing 18th as did other playoff chase competitors Denny Hamlin (23rd) and Joey Logano (29th). There will be a ton of jostling for position as these drivers try to move their way to the top.
I have included my final driver percentages for Kansas below over 41 lineups. My “OPTIMAL” lineup will include Harvick, Elliott, and Keselowski with 3 value plays. I am using this lineup in a single entry event. Good Luck Sunday!

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5 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings analysis for Talladega

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

There are just 6 races left in the NASCAR season, and 12 drivers left in the race for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Championship. The 1000Bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Sunday will go a long way in determining the top 8 that will move on to stage 3 of the playoffs.

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This 2.66 mile track is in my opinion the hardest one to handicap as “The Big One” is always looming. I like to lean on those drivers who will be as close to the front as possible in case a pileup happens. This race is also a bit different than the earlier one in the season due to the playoffs. Those comfortably in the top of the standings will be more cautious, and those below the cut line of 8 will be more aggressive trying to get a win that gives them an automatic spot in the next round.

***The Playoff Rankings – The top 8 after the race next week in Kansas move on.***

Chase Elliott in the No. 9 won for Hendrick Motorsports in the GEICO 500 at Talladega earlier this season. Kyle Larson was in a spectacular multi-car crash on the last lap. This was the first time since 1987 they ran here without a restrictor plate. The final results were littered with low price DFS longshots including Preece, Hemric, and Gaughan. I expect some of the same this Sunday. Having the right mix of lap leading dominators and value plays will be key in winning DFS GPPs.

***Final Results of the 2019 GEICO 500 at Talladega***

My pre-qualifying DFS rankings were as follows, but I think there are 10-12 drivers who could come away with the win including some below $8K.

High Priced

Kyle Busch $10,900
Brad Keselowski $9,600
Chase Elliott $10,100

Mid-Tier

Matt DiBenedetto $7,900
Jimmie Johnson $8,200
Alex Bowman $8,400

Value Plays

Ty Dillon $6,800
Bubba Wallace $6,200
Daniel Hemric $6,400

While I like to get an early feel for my lineups, qualifying position is crucial in DFS, especially at Talladega. The High/Low stacking process is most popular, but I think finding those in the 10-20 range that can win are golden.

Qualifying was a Hendrick Motorsports domination show as they took the top 4 qualifying spots. Only Almirola was able to join that foursome under 50 seconds. Two of my favorites this week Kyle Busch (26th) and DiBenedetto (31st) disappointed in qualifying, but I will still be on them in DFS. Denny Hamlin will have a lot to work to do from the back of the pack as he cut short his qualifying run due to an engine issue.

After readjusting some of my percentages, I came up with 42 lineups for DraftKings that I think can compete well for GPP wins. I am a bit heavier on the Hendrick drivers than I like, but you cannot ignore how well they did. I think Chase Elliott has to be considered the huge favorite to lead DFS in points. Others I have given a strong look to beyond Kyle Busch, DiBenedetto, and Hamlin, that did not qualify well, include both Dillons at 20th and 21st, Harvick in 15th, and Suarez in 19th.

I have included my driver percentages below, but for an “OPTIMAL” lineup I would have to include Elliott, Hamlin, Bowman, and DiBenedetto. I am using them in a single entry event. Good Luck Sunday!

***DFS Driver Usage for Talladega 10/13/19***

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5 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR

DFS NASCAR Picks: Michigan

Jason Mezrahi 5 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Prime DFS NASCAR Picks for the Consumers Energy 400 on Sunday from the Win Daily Staff.

Brad Keselowski – Finished second in the Michigan race last year and starts from the pole. Should lead some laps with some long green flag runs.

Martin Truex Jr. – He starts 15th and this will be a good track for Place Differential Points.

Kevin Harvick – Was third in final practice, starts second and should lead some laps for DFS NASCAR players.

Kyle Busch is an obvious cash game play starting 22nd and will be widely owned in GPPs

Erik Jones – was fastest in Final Practice and starts 16th, good PD potential.

Austin Dillon starts 37th because of a pre-race penalty and will be a popular choice after looking strong in pre-race events. Teammate Daniel Hemric starts 38th for the same reason and will be another popular DFS NASCAR play.

Others to consider in DFS NASCAR include Paul Menard, Kurt Busch, Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS at Kentucky: Picks and Preview

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

NASCAR heads to Kentucky after a crazy weekend at Daytona which ended early because of rain. Justin Haley, a NASCAR Xfinity Series regular, got the win after the race was called with over 30 laps left. Six of the Top 10 finishers at Daytona are worse than 15th in points standings and five of those six are outside the Top 20. It was an unpredictable race coming in and only became harder to believe when weather ended it early. The Quaker State 400 at Kentucky should be much easier to project in NASCAR DFS.

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Strategy

The NASCAR DFS strategy for Kentucky is much more straightforward than we have seen in the past few weeks. There are 267 laps at this 1.5 mile track. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch have led 438 laps combined over the past two races here with absurd Driver Ratings, which shows dominant cars can run away with the race at Kentucky. The winner of this race has qualified in the Top 10 is seven of eight events and started on the front row five times. Qualifying up front will normally translate to running up front on race day at Kentucky. Salaries are based on DraftKings.

High Salary ($9,000+)

Kyle Busch ($11,500)

Kyle Busch is the highest priced driver on the slate at Kentucky. In his eight career starts his worst finish is 12th and he has seven Top 10s. Busch also has two wins and six Top 5s here. He has never had a Driver Rating below 108 at this track. Busch has ran the second most fastest laps over the past three years and has led 112 laps since 2016. He is a great choice this week if you can afford him.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Once again he is my favorite NASCAR DFS driver to put up the most points. Truex Jr. has been a major force here over the past few years. He won in 2017 and 2018, both in dominating fashion. In 2017, he led 152 laps and had a Driver Rating of 149. The race in 2018 was no different as he led 172 laps with a Driver Rating of 148.9. He has won every stage over the past two years as well. I expect more of the same from him this weekend. He is again my top pick before qualifying.

Brad Keselowski ($10,000)

Keselowski has been boom or bust in NASCAR DFS at Kentucky. He has two unlucky finishes of 33rd and 39th but other than those he has never finished worse than seventh, winning three times. Keselowski comes at a bit of a discount compared to the top guys but has just as good, if not better history here than anyone. If you are looking for a more balanced lineup, Keselowski is a great elite option.

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Larson has somewhat debunked the trend of needing to start up front at Kentucky. Larson has put up back to back impressive races despite poor starting positions. In 2018, Larson started in 18th and finished ninth and in 2017 Larson started in 40th and finished second. His Driver Ratings of 96.2 and 107.6 in those two races were impressive. If you are looking for a Place Differential high upside play, Larson could be that option if he continues to qualify here as he has in the past.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Erik Jones ($8,900)

Erik Jones has finishes of sixth and seventh in two races at Kentucky. Jones is also coming in with some confidence as he had Top 10 finishes in three of his last four races before the fiasco at Daytona. His Driver Rating of 99.3 here also shows his finishes were no flukes. Jones should run near the Top 5 in this one and I could see him competing for the win.

Alex Bowman ($8,500)

Bowman comes in with arguably more confidence than anyone in the Monster Energy Cup Series. Bowman picked up his first career win two weeks ago at Chicagoland, also a 1.5 mile track. He earned 95 NASCAR DFS points in that win. Although I am not predicting a win, he has displayed great speed all year and this is a track where speed is huge. Having a car that can qualify up front is so important and he normally gives a good run to the pole. I expect him to start in the Top 10 and run there all day.

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Blaney just continues to drop in salary and I am not sure why. He did run into some bad luck in the middle of the season but he had three straight Top 10s going into last week and seems to be rounding into form at the right time. Blaney has back to back Top 10s at Kentucky and finished second here last year with a Driver Rating of 121.4. He started seventh and ran fourth and third in the two stages, as he kept getting better all race and ran up front all day. Get on Blaney before his NASCAR DFS price jumps, as he regains his early season form.

Daniel Suarez ($7,600)

Suarez is another guy with only a few races at Kentucky. He has shown decent speeds here in the past with starting positions of 11th and ninth to go with finishes of 15th and 18th. He has been pretty consistent all year as well and this is a low price for him. Suarez has seven Top 10s this year and he should be able to get close to that this week.

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

David Ragan ($5,700)

Ragan has never finished in a worse position than he qualified at Kentucky. He has positive Place Differentials of six, two, nine, and seven over the past four races at this track. Ragan can get you positive PD points. At this price, he will be a good NASCAR DFS value.

Bubba Wallace ($5,500)

Wallace has a much higher Driver Rating at Kentucky than anyone else in this price range. His Driver Rating of 64.8 over the past two years at this track is in line with drivers like William Byron and Ryan Newman, who are priced at $7,500 and $7,900. His two career races here ended with finishes of 27th and 11th.

*Check back after qualifying for the post qualifying report.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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Brad Keselowski

NASCAR DFS: Auto Club 400 Analysis

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NASCAR DFS: Pennzoil 400 Analysis

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NASCAR DFS: Final DraftKings Daytona 500 Analysis

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NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Martinsville

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day – Click here to play now now and get 100 Percent Matching Bonus!

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Kansas

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings analysis for Talladega

DFS NASCAR Picks: Michigan

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NASCAR DFS at Kentucky: Picks and Preview

Strategy

High Salary ($9,000+)

Kyle Busch ($11,500)

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Brad Keselowski ($10,000)

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Erik Jones ($8,900)

Alex Bowman ($8,500)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Daniel Suarez ($7,600)

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

David Ragan ($5,700)

Bubba Wallace ($5,500)

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Brad Keselowski

Join our Gold Membership and receive one on one coaching in our private discord chat, access to cheat sheets, access to projection models, and all of our PRO DFS and Sports Betting articles.

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Strategy

High Salary ($9,000+)

Kyle Busch ($11,500)

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Brad Keselowski ($10,000)

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Erik Jones ($8,900)

Alex Bowman ($8,500)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Daniel Suarez ($7,600)

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

David Ragan ($5,700)

Bubba Wallace ($5,500)

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©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.