NASCAR DFS: DraftKings analysis for Talladega

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There are just 6 races left in the NASCAR season, and 12 drivers left in the race for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Championship. The 1000Bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Sunday will go a long way in determining the top 8 that will move on to stage 3 of the playoffs.

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This 2.66 mile track is in my opinion the hardest one to handicap as “The Big One” is always looming. I like to lean on those drivers who will be as close to the front as possible in case a pileup happens. This race is also a bit different than the earlier one in the season due to the playoffs. Those comfortably in the top of the standings will be more cautious, and those below the cut line of 8 will be more aggressive trying to get a win that gives them an automatic spot in the next round.

Chase Elliott in the No. 9 won for Hendrick Motorsports in the GEICO 500 at Talladega earlier this season. Kyle Larson was in a spectacular multi-car crash on the last lap. This was the first time since 1987 they ran here without a restrictor plate. The final results were littered with low price DFS longshots including Preece, Hemric, and Gaughan. I expect some of the same this Sunday. Having the right mix of lap leading dominators and value plays will be key in winning DFS GPPs.

My pre-qualifying DFS rankings were as follows, but I think there are 10-12 drivers who could come away with the win including some below $8K.

High Priced

1. Kyle Busch $10,900
2. Brad Keselowski $9,600
3. Chase Elliott $10,100

Mid-Tier

1. Matt DiBenedetto $7,900
2. Jimmie Johnson $8,200
3. Alex Bowman $8,400

Value Plays

1. Ty Dillon $6,800
2. Bubba Wallace $6,200
3. Daniel Hemric $6,400

While I like to get an early feel for my lineups, qualifying position is crucial in DFS, especially at Talladega. The High/Low stacking process is most popular, but I think finding those in the 10-20 range that can win are golden.

Qualifying was a Hendrick Motorsports domination show as they took the top 4 qualifying spots. Only Almirola was able to join that foursome under 50 seconds. Two of my favorites this week Kyle Busch (26th) and DiBenedetto (31st) disappointed in qualifying, but I will still be on them in DFS. Denny Hamlin will have a lot to work to do from the back of the pack as he cut short his qualifying run due to an engine issue.

After readjusting some of my percentages, I came up with 42 lineups for DraftKings that I think can compete well for GPP wins. I am a bit heavier on the Hendrick drivers than I like, but you cannot ignore how well they did. I think Chase Elliott has to be considered the huge favorite to lead DFS in points. Others I have given a strong look to beyond Kyle Busch, DiBenedetto, and Hamlin, that did not qualify well, include both Dillons at 20th and 21st, Harvick in 15th, and Suarez in 19th.

I have included my driver percentages below, but for an “OPTIMAL” lineup I would have to include Elliott, Hamlin, Bowman, and DiBenedetto. I am using them in a single entry event. Good Luck Sunday!

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