NASCAR DFS: Pennzoil 400 Analysis

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The NASCAR Daytona 500 did not go exactly to plan, as avoiding the “Big One” is very difficult. At times, I was up 4x-5x, but I ended up slightly down after those last 2 crashes. I probably should have play 150 plus lineups. Hamlin had the best car and deserved the win.

NASCAR heads to Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube. This is a 1.5 mile oval that is running this race for the 23rd time. Jimmie Johnson has won this race 4 times, which is two more than Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick who are the only other multiple winners. Joey Logano won last year’s edition and is joined by Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch as the other one-time winners in this year’s field. Keselowski and Truex Jr. also have won on this track in the South Point 400 run in September the last two years.

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The practice sessions heading into qualifying were interesting as 2 Ford’s driven by Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer was in the top three of both sessions. Jimmie Johnson led the 2nd practice with a speed of 179.432 which topped the day. Bowman, DiBenedetto, Larson, and Blaney were the others who were in the top 10 of both sessions. Ross Chastain also looked good driving the #6 to a 6th place finish in session #2 replacing Ryan Newman.

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Saturday’s qualifying was canceled due to rain which put Kyle Busch on the pole followed by Truex Jr., Harvick, and Hamlin in the first 2 rows. All the power players on top leaves values play at a minimum. I will lean on those who did well in practice or have had decent success in Las Vegas. Kyle Busch, Hamlin, and Bell will start from the back of the field but will be scored on their starting position. This makes them difficult plays unless you’re looking to be contrarian.

My top DFS plays at each price tier this week are listed below. I was very torn on how strong to play my top picks. I decided to play hard on those I thought could dominate in laps led and position differential.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

1. Kevin Harvick $12,000
2. Brad Keselowski $11,100
3. Martin Truex Jr. $11,600

NASCAR DFS Mid-Tier

1. Clint Bowyer $8,000
2. Aric Almirola $7,800
3. Jimmie Johnson $8,400

NASCAR DFS Value Plays

1. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,600
2. Daniel Suarez $6,000
3. Ross Chastain $6,100

I am working on all of my lineups currently and will be posting these on twitter either later tonight or early Sunday AM on twitter.

I also like 7 plays on DraftKings Sports Book to win the race. My #1 pick would be Clint Bowyer at 25/1, but I think there is value with the other plays too.

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