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Boston Red Sox

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For July 21

5 years ago

written by

This Sunday July 21st slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

MLB DFS Stacks: Red Sox Roll; and the Indian’s find a Spark.

Sunday Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs Asher Wojciechowski (R)

The Red Sox are an obvious play here. They have the highest implied team total on the slate (7.5) and just exploded last night for 17 runs. While I don’t expect them to duplicate last nights performance, I will be happy with half. They are rolling, and there is no reason to jump off the train now. The usual suspects are in play.

Devers .262 ISO, .426 WOBA (4,500 FD, 5,500 DK); Xander .246 ISO, .414 WOBA (4,200 FD, 5,600 DK); Betts .231 ISO, .406 WOBA (4,400 FD, 5,400 DK); Vazquez .205 ISO, 348 WOBA (2,700 FD, 4,500 DK); JD .176 ISO, .343 WOBA (3,800 FD, 4,500 DK). Deeper analysis for all my favorite players can be found in my position rankings below.

Cleveland Indians vs Glenn Sparkman (R)

The last outing Glenn Sparkman pitched a gem, which should lower the Indians ownership. The three games combined before that he got bombarded for a combined 17 earned runs by WAS, TOR and CLE. The Indians got shut out at home last night and for a team with World Series aspirations I think they put up plenty of runs to ensure the W in a nice bounce back spot.

Lindor .243 ISO, .380 WOBA ($4,000 FD, $5,100 DK); Santana .286 ISO, .410 WOBA ($4,300 FD, $4,800 DK); Perez .225 ISO, .325 WOBA ($2,600 FD; $4,100 DK); Naquin .199 ISO, .356 WOBA ($3,300 FD, $4,400 DK); Mercado .164 ISO, .256 WOBA ($3,600 FD, $5,300 DK)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Anthony DeSciafani (R)

I am purposefully trying to find lower owned stacks and this fits the bill. Paul DeJong is thriving lately, Paul Goldschmidt is priced way to low on FD, Tyler O’Neil carries a whopping .405 WOBA hitting clean-up and Tommy Edman is batting lead scoring double digits in four games in a row. They also are in a positive hitting environment vs an arm they are very familiar with in DeSclafani. I like it.

Paul DeJong ($3,600 FD, $4,200 DK); Paul Goldschmidt ($3,300 FD, $4,100 DK); Tyler O’Neil ($2,800 FD, $4,400 DK); Tommy Edman ($2,900 FD, $4,300 DK) See below for further analysis on each player.

Position Rankings and Values

Catcher: Mitch Garver ($3,500 FD, $5,400 DK) This is being written before the lineup drops buts let’s cross our fingers and hope we wake tomorrow with Garver leading off again. He boasts a .300 IS0 and .381 WOBA vs righties. He is also hot with three homers in his last four games. If the Twins have faith in him to lead off and start breaking down Daniel Mengden, I do too. It worked last night right?

Catcher Value: Ryan Lavarnaway ($2,000 FD, $3,800 DK) Here is a tip.. go look at his last (and only) MLB box score and you tell me if you think he is worth playing at min price on FanDuel. Spoiler alert: He had two homeruns, one double, six RBI’s and one walk. Obviously he is not going to put up 63.6 FD points again in only his second game, but he is going to get you something for that price. This is pretty close to a lock for me.

First Base: Carlos Santana ($4,300 FD, $4,800 DK). Carlos boast a team leading 17 home runs this season vs righties while also having the highest team ISO (.286) and WOBA (.410) of all the Indians. If you have room to pay up here, he is a guy with huge upside and lower ownership. Don’t stack Indian’s without him.

First Base Value: Paul Goldschmidt ($3,300 FD, $4,100 DK) The price for Goldy has officially gotten too low. He has been showing flashes of his previous 2018 form recently and who better to hand him a breakout game than his old friend Anthony DeSciafani. Goldy is getting on base over 50% of his ABs vs DeSciafani and at his current price tag I love the upside. DeSciafani has struggled with the long ball in his last two starts giving up a combined four home runs. I would like to see Goldy add to that total. I also like the fact the he is hitting in front of another value option I like in the outfield, Tyler O’Neill.

Second Base: Niko Goodrum ($3,000 FD, $4,100 DK). He gets Jacob Waguespack and his 5.93 ERA at home. I like what I am seeing out of Goodrum lately. He appears to be focused and is clearly the lead bat to fear on Detroit. IF the Tigers are putting up runs, you can be sure he is a part of it.

Second Base Value: Brock Holt ($2,300 FD, $4,100 DK). He gets on base, which is all you need at near min price (on Fanduel) when the rest of the Red Sox lineup should be churning in runs. Double digit Fanduel points is very doable.

Short Stop Stud: Francisco Lindor ($4,000, $5,100 DK). He is batting lead off on one of my favorite stacks of the day. Hitting .248 ISO, .380 WOBA vs righties. The Indians go as Lindor goes, and today that goes well. Don’t let Glenn Sparkman’s last start fool you, the Indians put it on him starting with the first at bat.

Short Stop Value: Paul DeJong ($3,800 FD, $4,200 DK). This is about as cheap as it gets for me today at SS. DeJong has two homers is last three games and is hitting .341 vs righties this season with the third most homers on his team. When he gets focused, I play him.

Third Base: Rafael Devers ($4,500 FD, $5,500 DK): Devers tends to get hot and stay hot. He has a .262 ISO and .426 WOBA with 15 HR’s vs lefties this season. He is literally the Red Sox best bat right now which no one would have predicted. Today he gets another pitcher he can take advantage of in the unproven Asher Wojciechowski. While Woj isn’t terrible (his K stuff is there) he still has a 5.74 ERA and has given up at least one homer in every one of his few starts this season. Boston has the highest team total on the main slate and he is in the right place in he lineup to clear the bases and hopefully put on in the stands.

Third Base Value: Tommy Edman ($2,900 FD, $4,300 DK) Tommy Edman is batting lead off and has scored double digits in his last four games. He carries a .220 ISO and .311 WOBA on the season and those number could very well increase with his new place in the batting order. I like him to keep up the production this afternoon.

Outfield Stud: Mookie Betts ($4,400 FD, DK) Batting leadoff and highest team total on the board. Betts is capable of breaking any slate while also having a very safe floor, especially today vs. Asher Wojciechowski. Nothing to not like here.

Outfield MidRange: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3,900 FD, $4,800 $5,400 DK): 10 Homers, .405 ISO and .450 WOBA vs lefties this season. He faces Tyler Anderson, who has a 5.72 ERA in AAA, in a spot start for the Detroit Tigers. Anderson gave up two homers in his last MLB start to the White Sox. I like Gurriel Jr. getting to him here.

Outfield Value: Tyler O’Neil ($2,800 FD, $4,400, $5,400 DK) He is hitting .260 IS0 with a .405 WOBA. Last night his 8 game hit streak got broken but I like him to rebound here today. He has not had two games in a row without a hit since late May. I like the matchup vs DeSciafani (mentioned under Paul Goldschmidt above) and am looking for a couple RBI’s with a chance of a dong.

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Fantasy MLB Stacks: Winning Edge for July 21

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 10-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

Fantasy MLB Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. RHP Glenn Sparkman (KCR): 6.75 Runs

**Low Risk

Cleveland Indians are three games back on Minnesota but are gaining ground quick, winning their last 17 of 24 games. I’ll continue to ride these hot bats and feel good about doing so with a lofty 6.75 implied run total today. Cleveland batters are slashing to a magnificent .374 wOBA, .240 ISO, and 131 WRC+ over the last two weeks. They face Glenn Sparkman who carries a 4.54 ERA, 5.42 FIP, and 5.32 SIERA into today’s game. Sparkman has been atrocious on the road, allowing batters to slash to a .445 wOBA, .658 SLG, and .403 OBP over 26.4 innings while allowing a massive 28 earned runs.

Fantasy MLB Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. RHP Asher Wojciechowski (BAL): 7.50 Runs

**Low Risk

Asher Wojciechowski carries a 5.74 ERA, 5.01 FIP, and 3.86 SIERA over 15.2 innings pitched. During that short span, Asher is allowing left handed batters to slash to a .436 wOBA, .700 SLG, and .382 OBP. Red Sox batters are slashing to a .358 wOBA, .220 ISO, and 120 WRC+ over the last two weeks. Even if Wojciechowski finds success against the powerful right handed batters in this Boston lineup today, he will eventually give way to an awful Orioles bullpen.

Fantasy MLB Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. LHP Drew Smyly (PHI): 5.90 Runs

**Moderate Risk

I typically wouldn’t consider the Pirates against a left handed pitcher but Drew Smyly is the exception. Smyly is making is debut for the Phillies after pitching 51 innings for the Rangers. He carries a 8.42 ERA, 8.06 FIP, and 5.61 SIERA. The Pirates let us down last night but Smyly is terrible so I have no problem going back to this spot. The Pirates are slashing to a .361 wOBA, .196 ISO, and 124 WRC+ over the last month. Two week averages suggest the Pirates are due a slump buster and I believe we get that today in this matchup against Smyly.

Honorable Mention

Fantasy MLB Stack: Baltimore Orioles

vs. RHP Andrew Cashner (BOS): 5.00 Runs

**High Risk

Preferred Plays:Trey Mancini ($3400 FD|$4300 DK), Jonathan Villar ($2600 FD|$4100 DK), Anthony Santander ($3500 FD|$4100 DK), and Renato Nunez($3000 FD|$4300 DK).

Pitching

RHP Blake Snell (TAM): 2.90 Runs
LHP James Paxton (NYY): 4.10 Runs
Jack Flaherty (STL): 4.75 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Team DFS Stack Report: Winning Edge for July 20

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 10-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

DFS Stack Team: Cleveland Indians

vs. RHP Jakob Junis (KCR): 6.20 Runs

**Low Risk

Cleveland Indians batters are as hot as can be as of late. They come into tonight’s matchup slashing to a .366 wOBA, .250 ISO, and 126 WRC+ over the last two weeks. They get a lofty 6.20 implied run total and another subpar pitching matchup. Jakob Junis carries a 5.08 ERA, 4.94 FIP, and 4.59 SIERA on the season. Batters are slashing to a .340 wOBA, .475 SLG, and .337 OBP against Junis this year. He has surrendered 64 earned runs across 113 innings pitched. Junis is giving up 1.67 HR/9 and a 41% hard contact on the year. Cleveland batters have put up four or more runs on Junis in the three meetings they have had this season. Junis hasn’t faced a Cleveland team that happens to be hitting the best they have all year long.

DFS Stack Team: Houston Astros

vs. RHP Ariel Jurado (TEX): 6.10 Runs

As of publication time there still wasn’t Vegas information available for this game. If I had to guess they will slap a 10.5 O/U with Houston being favorites for an implied run total of 5.60 runs. The Astros have been picking up steam, slashing to a .365 wOBA, .185 ISO, and 136 WRC+ over the last two weeks against right handed pitching. Ariel Jurado is on the mound and he carries a 4.63 ERA, 4.55 FIP, and 4.94 SIERA on the season. He is a reverse splits pitcher, allowing right handed batters to slash to a .360 wOBA, .510 SLG, and .356 OBP. Jurado just allowed five runs to this same Astros team six days ago.

Preferred Plays: Alex Bregman ($4600 FD|$5100 DK), George Springer ($4800 FD|$5500 DK), Yuli Gurriel ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), and Yordan Alvarez ($4200 FD|$5200 DK)

DFS Stack Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP Zach Eflin (PHI): 5.80 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Zach Eflin is on the mound tonight in a hot and muggy Pittsburgh. At first pitch we are looking at a temperature around 91 degrees and 52% humidity. This is great hitting weather, so bump the bats. Eflin carries a 4.16 ERA, 4.65 FIP, and 4.71 SIERA. He is just about as bad as you would want him to be against left handed batters. They are slashing to a .357 wOBA, .543 SLG, and .333 OBP. On the road, Eflin has surrendered 16 earned runs and seven home runs to left handed batters across 25.1 innings pitched. He has been in major regression mode as of late, allowing six or more runs in three of his four last starts. Eflin faces a powerful left handed team in the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are slashing to a .365 wOBA, .202 ISO, and 127 WRC+ over the last month. Recent averages make the Pirates a bit less appealing, but with the weather, matchup, and excellent pricing I find it hard not to go for at least a two or three man mini stack.

DFS Stack Team: Baltimore Orioles

vs. RHP Rick Porcello (BOS): 4.75 Runs

**High Risk

If you live somewhere on the East Coast you’re probably experiencing some of this extreme heat over the weekend. Baltimore is awful and we are looking at 95 degrees and 70% humidity around first pitch, so probably a 100+ real feel. Rick Porcello carries a 5.37 ERA, 4.59 FIP, and 5.02 SIERA. He has a 5.28 xFIP so we expect further regression. Porcello has been fairly poor on the road with batters slashing to a .362 wOBA, .531 SLG, and .340 OBP over 42.1 innings. The Baltimore Orioles are slashing to a .315 wOBA, .170 ISO, and 95 WRC+ over the last month. I do deem the Birds a high risk play, but they are in a good spot and have had success against Porcello already this season. This time the O’s get a better ballpark and the weather gives the bats a nice bump. Not to mention how cheap all these players are on both sites.

Honorable Mention

Cincinnati Reds DFS Stack

vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (STL): 4.85 Runs

**Low Risk

Preferred Stack: Yasiel Puig ($3400 FD|$4400 DK), Eugenio Suarez ($3700 FD|$4200 DK), Jesse Winker ($2900 FD|$3600 DK), and Josh Vanmeter ($2000 FD|$2500 DK).

Boston Red Sox DFS Stack

vs. RHP Tom Eshelman (BAL): 6.75 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Pitching

RHP Zack Greinke (ARI): 4.10 Runs
LHP Clayon Kershaw (LAD): 2.70 Runs
RHP Mike Soroka (ATL): 4.40 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For July 20

5 years ago

written by

This Saturday July 20th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

MLB DFS Stacks: Houston, Jurado has a problem.

Saturday Stacks

Houston Astros vs Ariel Jurado (R)

This one is easy. The last time Jurado faced the Astros he gave up five runs in four innings, at home, and the Stros didn’t even homer once. Welp, Houston is going deep today plus getting the runs. This feels like a spot where Texas will want to stretch Jurado until he breaks which is what I am banking on. Are they chalk? Probably. Why? Because they are most certainly getting to Jurado. Don’t overthink it. Lock in the MLB DFS points and let’s get our advantage elsewhere. Ride with Houston and shake your head at the 80% of people who faded them. Alvarez (.342 ISO, .463 WOBA), Springer (.313, .424), Bregman (.259, .402), Gurriel (.211, .349), Brantley (.208, .370).

I don’t hate Chirinos, but I like everyone above better. I would use him to round out a stack if I needed too.

Minnesota Twins vs Brett Anderson (L)

This is a MLB DFS spot that I am attacking. The Twins handle lefties well, especially mediocre ones at home. This one might slide under the radar too. Garver (.415 ISO, .515 WOBA), Cruz (.356, .411), Sano (.333, .385), Cron (.326, .458), Schoop (.246. .382), and Kepler (.200, .376). You’ll notice most of these players are towards the back of the lineup which will just lower ownership, however they are indeed the best lefty hitters on the team. The Twins have not been on fire lately but this feels like it can be the time for them to bust out. Get some.

If Cave is in he is a quality value play. He should pay off that cheap price tag.

Boston Red Sox vs Tom Eshelman (R)

My guess is a team with deep playoff aspirations didn’t like getting blown out by the rebuilding Baltimore Orioles last night and this is a great bounce-back spot. Eshelman is also nothing to fear in a great MLB DFS hitting environment. In his two starts this year he has struck out seven and 0. Which Eshelman shows up Saturday? I think the latter. Devers (.262 ISO, .426 WOBA), Xander (.246, .414.), Betts (.231, .406), Vasquez (.205, 348). JD or Chavis are fine too if you have the space.

Honorable Mention: Arizona Diamondbacks

Another team that mashes lefties, is at home, and is hot: Kelly, Lamb, Vargas, Escobar, Marte, Ahmed.

Full Disclosure: I am going to the Braves game and will have a stack for gigs. They face a pitcher they rostered last year in Sanchez, and literally have the book on him. I trust Snit to roll out an optimal lineup. Could be fireworks. Acuna, Swanson, Freeman, Donaldson. #HomerPick

Position Rankings and Values

Listed in order of preference

C. Vazquez (2,700 FD, 4,500 DK), Kelly (2,700 FD, 3,900 DK), Garver (3,700 FD, 5,300 DK)

1.Freeman (4,000 FD, 4,900 DK), Sano (3,500 FD, 4,400 DK), Cron (3,400 FD, 3,700 DK)

2. Hiura (3,800 FD, 4,900 DK), Ildemaro Vargas (2,000 FD, 3,700 DK), Schoop (2,900 FD, 3,900 DK)

SS. Bregman (4,600 FD, 5,100 DK), Xander (4,500 FD, 5,600 DK), Swanson (3,100 FD, 4,400 DK), Ahmed (3,100 FD, 3,500 DK)

3. Devers (4,600 FD, 5,400 DK), Gurriel (3,800 FD, 4,600 DK), Donaldson (3,500 FD, 4,900 DK), Lamb (3,000 FD, 3,700 DK) Gut pick: Saurez (3,700 FD, 4,200 DK)

OF. Springer (4,800 FD, 5,500 DK), Betts (4,700, 5,300 DK), Alvarez (4,200 FD, 5,200 DK), Brantley (4,000 FD, 4,500 DK), Marte (4,000 FD, 4,800 DK)

OF. Cruz (3,900 FD, 4,500 DK), Kepler (3,600 FD, 4,700 DK)

OF. O’Neil (2,700 FD, 4,100 DK), Locastro (2,400 FD, 3,900 DK) both are way too cheap

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups. It seems to be where the value is today.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Hitting Tips for July 19

Jared Contestabile 5 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

There are a lot of great spots for MLB DFS bats tonight so I will help narrow it down to my favorite stacks and a few value bats.

Top Stack – Milwaukee Brewers. Taylor Clarke takes the mound for the Diamondbacks and that is great MLB DFS news for the Brewers. He has a below average strikeout rate of 16.7% and gives up a whopping 41.3% hard contact to lefties. In addition to that, he gives up a .293 ISO against hitters from both sides of the plate. Yelich, Moustakas, Grandal, and Thames are the ones to target here in MLB DFS.

Another Stack to Consider – Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox face off against John Means tonight in Baltimore. While it’s not the greatest MLB DFS matchup for Boston because Means has shown some ability to pitch well, I really like them because the bullpen for Baltimore is awful. If they can get to Means and to that bullpen early it will mean good things. Means has somewhat reverse splits so I am targeting Bogaerts, Martinez, Chavis, and Vazquez. You can switch in Betts for either Chavis or Vazquez but for me he is on the outside of my stacks until I see him get his power back. He only has a .096 ISO for the year and is priced at $4,400. For that MLB DFS price I want power and home run upside which he has not shown this year. Maybe this is the game he gets back on track, but I will wait and see.

Top Value Bats – Jordan Luplow is still only $2,600 on FanDuel. I think their algorithm is broken. He is my top points per dollar spend in MLB DFS tonight. He has a massive .368 ISO against lefties and he gets a dream matchup in Mike Montgomery. From that same game I like Roberto Perez at $2,800. He has been crushing lefties with a .296 ISO and is doing so quietly since he bats lower in the order. Another value I like is Jessie Winker. He will bat leadoff again in a great hitter’s park. He is priced at only $2,800 and has a .239 ISO. In four at-bats against Wainwright he is one for four with that hit being a home run. Not a large sample size for MLB DFS by any means but shows he has the ability to take him deep.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Stack Report for MLB Main Slate: Winning Edge for July 19

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s 14-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

New York Yankees Stack

vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (COL): 6.90 Runs

I glared at the computer for awhile this morning trying to figure out how to get away from this Yankees chalk tonight and I can’t do it. Kyle Freeland is just downright terrible. He carries a 7.39 ERA, 6.13 FIP, and 5.18 SIERA on the season. He has allowed 43 earned runs across 53 innings to right-handed batters. Freeland is allowing a massive 2.27 HR/9 innings and 43% hard contact. Freeland is not at Coors, but he is in very hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have been slumping off just a bit coming off the break, but this team is jam packed with talent and it would be foolish to fade them. The Yankees are slashing to a .365 wOBA, .225 ISO, and 128 WRC+ over the last month. I’m typically an advocate against using the Yankees on most nights, but I feel confident using these right handed power bats this evening.

Cleveland Indians Stack

vs. LHP Mike Montgomery (KCR): 6.15 Runs

Mike Montgomery was a top prospect not long ago but has not had a good 2019 campaign. I doubt he’s stretched out all the way so he should be limited today. We have a small sample size to go off of here, but Montgomery carries a 5.67 ERA, 6.21 FIP, and 5.25 SIERA over 27 innings pitched this season. His splits indicate he struggles more with lefties. They are slashing to a .556 wOBA, .868 SLG, and .512 OBP. Montgomery is not much better against righties (thus far). They are slashing to a .336 wOBA, .464 SLG, and .338 OBP. Obviously these numbers are inflated due to limited action this season but most tend to go for the handedness matchup, so don’t be afraid to differentiate with some Cleveland lefties. Cleveland bats are red hot right now. They are slashing to a .369 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 128 WRC+ over the last couple of weeks.

Toronto Blue Jays Stack

vs. RHP Jordan Zimmermann (DET): 5.90 Runs

Jordan Zimmermann heads into tonight’s matchup carrying a 7.01 ERA, 4.64 FIP, and 5.35 SIERA. That ERA is a little elevated compared to his FIP and SIERA. That is because of his .344 BABIP and a lowly 58% LOB. Some of it can be attributed to bad luck but he also has a poor defense behind him, so that will drive his ERA up whereas FIP measures things only the pitcher can control. Bats are slashing to a .350 wOBA, .508 SLG, and .348 OBP on the season against him. Zimmermann has allowed 41 earned runs across 52.2 innings pitched. He has only allowed seven home runs in that span. Blue Jays batters are slashing to a .351 wOBA, .234 ISO, and 120 WRC+ over the last month. They have seen a dip in their batting averages recently, but this is a good spot for Toronto to do some damage.

Honorable Mention

Boston Red Sox Stack

vs. LHP John Means (BAL): 6.00 Runs

Preferred Stack: Christian Vazquez ($2800 FD|$4700 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4500 FD|$5700 DK), Rafael Devers ($4400 FD|$5400 DK), and J.D. Martinez ($4000 FD|$4700 DK).

Pitching

RHP Jacob deGrom (NYM): 3.13 Runs
LHP Hyun-jin Ryu (LAD): 2.45 Runs
RHP Marcus Stroman (TOR): 4.20 Runs
LHP Brendan McCay (TAM): 3.29 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Stacks: Contrarian to Coors

Wes Anderson 5 years ago

written by Wes Anderson

With a game in Coors Field today, you know you can start your MLB DFS Stacks for July 17^th with Rockies and Giants. But if you are looking to get contrarian with your DFS stacks, below we have four teams to target:

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Minnesota Twins

The Mets’ Jason Vargas has been flirting with trouble all year with his 40.9% flyball rate and 41.1% hard contact rate. And the regression monster veered its ugly head in his last start. In that start, Vargas allowed six earned runs while recording a single strikeout. Look for Vargas’ descent back to normalcy continue to in this one. Not only does Vargas struggle on the road with a 5.56 xFIP but the Twins’ lineup is stacked with guys that crush lefties. As an offensive unit, they have a .214 ISO and a .362 wOBA against southpaws this season. Nine Twins with at least 53 at-bats have ISOs over .190 against lefties.

Of course, start your Minnesota MLB DFS Stacks with Nelson Cruz (FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $5,100). But you can also mix and match in the likes of: Mitch Garver (FanDuel: $3,400 DraftKings: $5,400), Miguel Sano (FanDuel: $3,400 DraftKings: $4,900), C.J. Cron (FanDuel: $3,300 DraftKings: $3,700), Ehire Adrianza (FanDuel: $2,300 DraftKings: $3,500), Jake Cave (FanDuel: $2,400 DraftKings: $3,300), Jonathan Schoop (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings: $4,200) and Max Kepler (FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $4,900). All of these Twins’ batters have accumulated at least a .200 ISO versus left-handed pitching.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Soxdraw Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez in this one. Sanchez has a 6.22 ERA this season,while also owning a 5.61 SIERA and a 5.39 xFIP. With the Red Sox sporting a.349 wOBA and a 114 wRC+ versus righties this season, this seems like anappropriate spot to stack some of the Boston Bombers in DFS.

Sanchez has been awful against batters from both sides of the plate, so stack the Red Sox however you please. He has allowed a .347 wOBA to lefties and a .380 to righties. But our Boston MLB DFS Stacks will need to start with Mookie Betts (FanDuel: $4,300 DraftKings: $5,400). Betts has an ISO north of .225 versus right-handed pitching. Other Boston bats worth considering are: Rafael Devers (FanDuel: $4,200 DraftKings: $5,700), Xander Bogaerts (FanDuel: $4,400 DraftKings: $5,600) and Christian Vazquez (FanDuel: $2,900 DraftKings: $4,900). These three Boston bats have ISOs above .210 versus righties in 2019.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Phillies’ Nick Pivetta has been getting hit hard this season. The righty is allowing a 42.2% hard contact rate. The hard contact has led to him allowing 2.16 HR/9. So this is a perfect spot for us to pick on him while we build MLB DFS Stacks. Especially considering the Dodgers crush righties. Los Angeles owns a .213 ISO and a .347 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this season.

With Pivetta allowing a 43.7% hard contact rate to lefties this season, we will want to target the likes of Cody Bellinger (FanDuel: $4,800 DraftKings: $5,800), Joc Pederson (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings: $4,600), Max Muncy (FanDuel: $3,900 DraftKings: $5,100) and Alex Verdugo (FanDuel: $3,100 DraftKings: $4,300). All of these Dodgers bats have ISOs over .200 against right-handed pitching this season.

Washington Nationals

The Orioles’ Aaron Brooks has a 4.97 xFIP in 2019. He also is allowing flyballs at a rate of 40.5% which has led to 2.04 HR/9. The Nationals have plenty of batters that should take advantage of this matchup with MLB DFS Stacks against a right-hander.

Use AnthonyRendon (FanDuel: $4,300 DraftKings: $5,500), Matt Adams (FanDuel: $2,700DraftKings: $4,400), Juan Soto (FanDuel: $4,000 DraftKings: $5,500), HowieKendrick (FanDuel: $2,600 DraftKings: $4,900), Kurt Suzuki (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings:$4,700) and Trea Turner (FanDuel: $3,900 DraftKings: $5,300). These battershave ISOs greater than .200 against right-handed pitching this season.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Stack Report for MLB Main Slate: Winning Edge for July 17

Ethan Thiel 5 years ago

written by Ethan Thiel

This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason.

Los Angeles Dodgers Stack

vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (PHI): 5.80 Runs

**Another game with rain out potential. At the moment it looks like the storms should hold off until after the game but i advise you to monitor the weather here as it looks shakey up and down the east coast tonight.

Nick Pivetta is on the mound this evening for the Phillies. He carries an average 5.81 ERA, 5.75 FIP, and 4.89 SIERA on the year. Pivetta has fairly identical splits, with batters slashing to a .360 wOBA, .530 SLG, and .340 OBP across 66.2 innings. He has given up 27 earned runs across 33 innings to right handed batters. He has also allowed 16 earned runs in 33 innings to left handed batters. The core of this Los Angeles Dodgers team is their left handed power and they have been tearing up right handed pitching. They are slashing to a .355 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 121 WRC+ over the last month to righties.

Boston Red Sox Stack

***Weather is a legitimate concern here, possible PPD. Pitching and bats risky. If you want to play a Boston stack, I would reserve it for GPP’s and monitor the weather.

vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 6.90 Runs

The Red Sox get a lofty 6.90 implied run total in this matchup against Aaron Sanchez (surprising, I know) and this is one we cannot ignore. I know we have some weather concerns here, so tune in with our weather man Mark for updates as we get closer to lock. Aaron Sanchez carries an average 6.22 ERA, 5.50 FIP, and 5.62 SIERA. Sanchez is allowing batters to slash to a .362 wOBA, .456 SLG, and .388 OBP across 97 innings. He has allowed 67 earned runs in that span. Aaron Sanchez is a ground ball pitcher, averaging a 48% ground ball rate. Although he doesn’t give up many home runs, he has a .330 BABIP and LOB of 66%. The Red Sox are slashing to a .374 wOBA, .252 ISO, and 131 WRC+ over the last two weeks to right handed pitching. These are the best hitting numbers on the slate by a long shot.

Preferred Stack: Rafael Devers ($4200 FD|$5700 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4400 FD|$5600 DK), Andrew Benintendi ($3400 FD|$4500 DK), and Mookie Betts ($4300 FD|$5400 DK).

Arizona Diamondbacks

vs. RHP Jesse Chavez (TEX): 5.45 Runs

We have Jesse Chavez taking on the Diamondbacks in Coors South this evening. Chavez carries a 3.84 ERA, 4.51 FIP, and 4.24 SIERA into tonight’s matchup. He is a reverse splits pitcher, allowing righties to slash .353 wOBA, .519 SLG, and .329 OBP. He has fallen off recently after having a somewhat successful start to the year. I expect him to stay in this rough patch and we will see his ERA line up with close to his FIP as the season comes to a close. Arizona batters are slashing to a .300 wOBA, .161 ISO, and 82 WRC+ in recent weeks. These are by no means the averages I look for when picking my stacks, but I feel with the ballpark upgrade to the bats and Chavez’s recent struggles we could end up with a nice lower owned Diamondbacks stack.

Honorable Mention

Cleveland Indians

vs. RHP Spencer Turnbull (DET): 5.78 Runs

Preferred Plays: Francisco Lindor ($4000 FD|$5000 DK), Carlos Santana ($4200 FD|$5300 DK), Jason Kipnis ($2900 FD|$3600 DK), Jose Ramirez ($3600 FD|$4400 DK). Jakob Bauers for value ($2900 FD|$3600 DK). Mike Freeman ($2100 FD|$3700 DK and Tyler Naquin ($2800 FD|$4000 DK) are also good value plays.

Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Aaron Brooks (40-50 pitches) & RHP Gabriel Ynoa (BAL)

**Another trouble spot with weather otherwise I’d have them as the top stack. I think the game starts on time, but a good chance we do not get a full 9 innings.

Pitching

Chris Paddack (R) (SDP): 3.15 Runs
Mike Clevinger (R) (CLE): 3.27 Runs
Danny Duffy (L) (KCR): 5.01 Runs

Please check out our Daily MLB cheatsheet for more cash oriented plays.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Stack Report for MLB Main Slate: Winning Edge for July 15

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s 10-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer we get to the postseason.

Cleveland Indians Stack

vs. LHP Daniel Norris (DET): 6.30 Runs

Daniel Norris takes the mound in Cleveland this evening. He carries a 4.96 ERA, 4.62 FIP, and 4.71 ERA into tonight’s matchup. We get a nice little recipe here with his reverse splits. Left handed batters are slashing to a .367 wOBA, .540 SLG, and .343 OBP across 16 innings pitched. He has allowed 13 runs in that short span. His 40% hard contact rate and 40% pull rate combined with his shakiness to lefties can make for some easy liners to right field. Norris racked up eight strikeouts but gave up six earned runs in his last meeting with Cleveland. Cleveland batters are hitting below their season averages this month, slashing to a .309 wOBA, .154 ISO, and 88 WRC+. These numbers aren’t typically what we look for but they’re in the worst part of their slump and this is a good opportunity to bust out of it.

Preferred Stack: Roberto Perez ($2700 FD|$4100 DK), Jordan Luplow ($2500 FD|$3900 DK), Carlos Santana ($3800 FD|$5000 DK), and Francisco Lindor ($4000 FD|$4900 DK).

Colorado Rockies Stack

vs. RHP Derek Rodriguez (SFG):

Dereck Rodriguez was called up from AAA as the 26th man ahead of today’s doubleheader. He carries a 5.27 ERA, 5.57 FIP, and 5.46 SIERA across 57 innings pitched into tonight’s game. He has struggled both to righties and lefties, allowing a .338 wOBA, .462 SLG, and 46% hard contact rate. The Rockies batting averages are creeping up again on this home stand and should continue to rise this evening. They are slashing to a .349 wOBA, .193 ISO, and .457 SLG against right handed pitching recently and the studs in this lineup are coming off a rest day.

Every stack report in the industry is going to have the Giants and Rockies. Ownership almost always levitates to Coors, especially when you have Dereck Rodriguez (SFG) and Chi Chi Gonzalez (COL) pitching. Going to be a lot of ownership on both sides here ,so I am not writing up the Giants in detail for that purpose, but I’ve included my preferred stack if you decide to go with the masses tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers Stack

vs. RHP Zach Eflin (PHI): 5.40 Runs

I imagine ownership here will be higher as well. It’s not very often we get the Dodgers so early in the evening. Zach Eflin carries a 3.78 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and 4.70 SIERA into tonight’s matchup. Left handed batters are slashing to a .357 wOBA, .544 SLG, and .333 OBP. He has allowed 22 earned runs and 11 home runs across 43 innings pitched to lefties as well. The only concern I really have with Dodgers batters here is a possible hangover from last night’s game. The Dodgers are slashing .to a 335 wOBA, .209 ISO, and 109 WRC+ vs. right handed pitching over the last month.

Preferred Stack:Max Muncy ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), Alex Verdugo ($3100 FD|$4100 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4800 FD|$5100 DK), and Joc Pederson ($2600 FD|$4200 DK).

Boston Red Sox Stack

vs. RHP Trent Thornton (TOR): 6.25 Runs

The Red Sox get another cupcake matchup against Thornton. They have faced him twice this season, his first outing in Boston when he allowed only two earned runs and a recent second outing in Toronto in which he allowed seven earned runs. This Red Sox team is hitting very well recently. They are slashing .372 wOBA, .254 ISO, and 129 WRC+. I have the same concern with the Red Sox as with the Dodgers. They played late last night but they do get the benefit at being at home. Trent Thornton has a 4.85 ERA, 4.41 FIP, and 4.75 ERA on the year. He has identical splits, allowing batters to slash to a .332 wOBA, .321 BABIP, and .444 SLG.

Preferred Stack: Rafael Devers ($4100 FD|$5500 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), Mookie Betts ($4200 FD|$4800 DK), and Christian Vazquez ($2900 FD|$4700 DK).

Honorable Mention

Houston Astros vs. RHP Griffin Canning (LAA): 4.90 Runs

Preferred Stack: Alex Bregman ($4200 FD|$4400 DK), Yordan Alvarez ($4300 FD|$4800 DK), Michael Brantley ($3900 FD|$4000 DK), and Yuli Gurriel ($3800 FD|$4200 DK).

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Rick Porcello (BOS): 4.25 Runs

Preferred Stack: Freddy Galvis ($3200 FD|$4300 DK), Cavan Biggio ($3700 FD|$4500 DK), Eric Sogard ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3800 FD|$5300 DK).

Pitching

RHP Adam Plutko vs. DET: 4.20 Runs
RHP Lucas Giolito vs. KCR: 4.40 Runs
LHP James Paxton vs. TAM: 4.00 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

7/15 MLB DFS Podcast with The King and Our Weather/MLB Expert

Scott Engel 5 years ago

written by Scott Engel

Scott Engel and Mark Paquette discuss the Main FanDuel MLB DFS Slate on the 7/15 MLB DFS Podcast. They break down the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Saving on Monday Pitching

There are some big names to possibly spend up on, such as Luis Castillo, but Scott and Mark offer a pair of arms that can save you some cash and help you stack from the Colorado/San Francisco game. Kyle Hendricks is under $10,000 on DK, and Joe Musgrove is incredibly cheap when you consider how he has been pitching recently.

7/15 MLB DFS Podcast Stacks

There are a few likable options for tonight, and the Blue Jays are one of them. We also have to give strong consideration to the Braves. Of course, the second game of the Rockies/Giants doubleheader offers us some apparent quality options.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Boston Red Sox

MLB DFS Stacks: Red Sox Roll; and the Indian’s find a Spark.

Sunday Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs Asher Wojciechowski (R)

Cleveland Indians vs Glenn Sparkman (R)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Anthony DeSciafani (R)

Position Rankings and Values

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

Fantasy MLB Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. RHP Glenn Sparkman (KCR): 6.75 Runs

Fantasy MLB Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. RHP Asher Wojciechowski (BAL): 7.50 Runs

Fantasy MLB Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. LHP Drew Smyly (PHI): 5.90 Runs

Honorable Mention

Fantasy MLB Stack: Baltimore Orioles

Pitching

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

DFS Stack Team: Cleveland Indians

vs. RHP Jakob Junis (KCR): 6.20 Runs

DFS Stack Team: Houston Astros

vs. RHP Ariel Jurado (TEX): 6.10 Runs

DFS Stack Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP Zach Eflin (PHI): 5.80 Runs

DFS Stack Team: Baltimore Orioles

vs. RHP Rick Porcello (BOS): 4.75 Runs

Honorable Mention

Cincinnati Reds DFS Stack

Boston Red Sox DFS Stack

Pitching

MLB DFS Stacks: Houston, Jurado has a problem.

Saturday Stacks

Houston Astros vs Ariel Jurado (R)

Minnesota Twins vs Brett Anderson (L)

Boston Red Sox vs Tom Eshelman (R)

Honorable Mention: Arizona Diamondbacks

Position Rankings and Values

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

New York Yankees Stack

vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (COL): 6.90 Runs

Cleveland Indians Stack

vs. LHP Mike Montgomery (KCR): 6.15 Runs

Toronto Blue Jays Stack

vs. RHP Jordan Zimmermann (DET): 5.90 Runs

Honorable Mention

Boston Red Sox Stack

vs. LHP John Means (BAL): 6.00 Runs

Pitching

Minnesota Twins

Boston Red Sox

Los Angeles Dodgers

Washington Nationals

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason.

Los Angeles Dodgers Stack

vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (PHI): 5.80 Runs

Boston Red Sox Stack

vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 6.90 Runs

Arizona Diamondbacks

vs. RHP Jesse Chavez (TEX): 5.45 Runs

Honorable Mention

Cleveland Indians

Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Aaron Brooks (40-50 pitches) & RHP Gabriel Ynoa (BAL)

Pitching

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer we get to the postseason.

Cleveland Indians Stack

vs. LHP Daniel Norris (DET): 6.30 Runs

Colorado Rockies Stack

vs. RHP Derek Rodriguez (SFG):

Los Angeles Dodgers Stack

vs. RHP Zach Eflin (PHI): 5.40 Runs

Boston Red Sox Stack

vs. RHP Trent Thornton (TOR): 6.25 Runs

Honorable Mention

Houston Astros vs. RHP Griffin Canning (LAA): 4.90 Runs

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Rick Porcello (BOS): 4.25 Runs

Saving on Monday Pitching

7/15 MLB DFS Podcast Stacks

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