Welcome to Monday edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a nice-sized 11-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. We’re not quite through the first rotation of most team’s staff. That means pitching will be kind of blah tonight as we are essentially at the back end of most rotations. The good is that it means plenty of offense. The bad, is that it means pitching will be really tough to nail down.
Let’s dig and make some money!
The Houston Astros will turn the ball over to top prospect Hunter Brown tonight. In a small cup of tea last year, Brown was really good. In his 20 innings of work, Brown struck out 27.5% of the batters he faced and did a nice job of limiting hard contact as hitters had a sub-30 % hard-hit rate vs. him. While we can’t expect him to continue with the .89 ERA that he had last year, he did pitch to an xFIP under 3 last season. Brown also had a phenomenal chase rate of nearly 32% last season. Of all the pitchers throwing today, no one outside of Matthew Boyd and his 13 innings of work last year had more hitters chasing.
This is just not a good Tigers lineup and one that Brown should easily navigate through. Through the first 3 games of the season, this Tigers lineup has scored just 3 runs. Not 4, not 5, not 6, just 3 runs. They are awful and I feel bad that Miguel Cabrera’s last season in baseball will be part of this atrocious lineup. Houston and Brown are huge favorites tonight. While nothing is guaranteed, feel confident throwing out Brown tonight.
Yes, pitching is so bad that the next pitcher I’m recommending is Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen isn’t actually that bad of a pitcher, he’s actually pretty good. He just doesn’t strike many out. He had a K rate in 2022 of just over 21%. That’s not ideal for MLB DFS as K’s are king. That said, pitching is bad tonight and the pitchers that actually did have high K rates last year are not in good matchups.
While Rasmussen won’t get many K’s tonight, he should be able to do a great of limiting damage. This Nationals lineup has been bad to start the year. Through their first 3 games, they’ve scored just 7 runs for an average of just 2 per game. Tampa is one of the bigger favorites on the board. The K’s won’t be there for him tonight, but Rasmussen should be able to go long enough in this one to get the W and pay off his $8.1k DK salary tonight.
This is a high-risk/potentially high-reward pick. Nestor Cortes had by far the best season of his career in 2022. He set career highs in wins, innings pitched, ERA, and xFIP. Basically any meaningful stat, Cortes improved last year. He does a great job of throwing hitters off with his quirky mechanics.
This is a really good Phillies lineup, but not quite the lineup they expected to have to start the year. Harper is out recovering from TJ surgery and Hoskins is out for the year after tearing his ACL at the end of Spring Training. Cortes should be able to neutralize Schwarber tonight as he’s absolutely dominant vs. lefties. This is low-key a really good spot for Cortes and he should be able to give the Phillies hitters a ton of fits tonight. He’s risky, but could potentially be the highest-scoring pitcher on the night.
The Tampa Bay Rays get to take on journeyman starter Trevor Williams. Williams isn’t an awful pitcher, but he’s also not a good pitcher. He’s an average one at best and one that should struggle with this Tampa lineup tonight. Williams is a flyball pitcher and if he’s off his game just a smidge tonight, there should be some homers tonight in DC as the weather should be perfect for early April baseball.
Core: My Tampa core will be built around Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena. Franco is off to a red-hot start to the 2023 campaign. Through his first 11 AB, Franco has 7 hits. Of those 7, 4 have been for extra-base hits. This is the type of environment tonight where he should continue with this early success in the year. I also really like Aroz here. Through his first 3 games, Aroz has already scored 4 runs, while driving in 3. He’s as big of a part of this offense as anyone. These 2 guys should dominate tonight
Secondary/Value: Other guys I really like in this lineup tonight will be both Brandon and Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz, and Jose Siri. All of these guys have been productive to start the year. Both Josh Lowe and Jose Siri make for excellent value plays as they are both under $3k on DK tonight.
The Dodgers get one of the best matchups on the board tonight. In nearly 100 innings in 2022, Feltner really struggled. Feltner’s final ERA in 2022 was pushing 6 at 5.83. While ERA isn’t an end-all, it does show that a pitcher struggled. He also gave up a massive hard-hit rate at nearly 36%. That’s one of the worst marks of anyone on the hill tonight and that says a lot considering what we’re working with. Feltner was pretty much split-neutral in 2022 so I’m not going to be overly concerned with worrying about what side of the plate to attack him with.
Core: My Core with the Dodgers tonight will be the 2 guys that hit at the top of the lineup and are 2 of the best hitters in the game, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Neither guy has really blown us out of the water yet, but their day is coming and that will be today in what is a cake matchup for them. Freeman is my favorite of the two though if you can only afford one of them. He gets the platoon advantage tonight and has immense upside tonight.
Secondary/Value: Other bats I like here will be Will Smith, David Peralta, and JD Martinez. Will Smith is a lot more than I normally like to spend on catchers, but he’s one of the best-hitting catchers in the game and has started out the season strong with 5 RBI and 5 hits in his first 11 AB. He also has multiple extra-base hits. Again, he’s pricey, but you could do a whole lot worse with $5k.
The Boston Red Sox offense has started out extremely strong this season. Through 3 games against the Orioles’ meager pitching staff, they were able to put up 23 runs. They’ll now get to face another below-average staff in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Expect more runs from them and expect them often. Tonight they’ll face off against Johan Oviedo. While Oviedo wasn’t awful last season, he has shown in his 2 previous stints in the bigs with the Cards that he struggles to get big leaguers out. I’m going to fully attack him tonight.
Core: My core with the Red Sox is going to be very clear. Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner, and Rafael Devers. All 4 guys are off to hot starts, with Duvall, Devers, and Turner all hitting over .400 to start the year. Outside of Devers, this stack is extremely affordable tonight. Both Turner and Duvall are under $4k tonight. They don’t get the platoon advantage, but they are near locks in my lineup.
Secondary/Value: The other 2 bats I like here will be Enrique Hernandez and Masataka Yoshida. Neither guy is a necessity, but if you can fit them in go for it as there should be some runs scored by the Red Sox tonight.
We have our first Monday slate of the year and it’s going to be a doozy. There are limited pitching options but there will be plenty of options for offense. Expect a high-scoring slate tonight.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Today we have a split slate of games, with both being small 4-game slates of MLB DFS. This article will highlight the early slate. For info about the late slate, make sure to drop into discord where we’ll be talking about plays for it later today.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
I should lead by saying that pitching is absolutely atrocious on this early slate. Every pitcher has the ability to put up single digits today. Ranger Suarez does however appear to be one of the safer options on the mound. The Cubs aren’t a very good team. But this is the time of year when “kids” are in the lineup playing for their spot on next year’s roster. This same Cubs team put up a 4 spot on Aaron Nola last night and gave him the big fat L.
That said, this is also a Cubs team that is not very good against lefties. The projected lineup tonight has just a .090 ISO vs. lefties over the last month and a K rate over 28%. Suarez doesn’t have much K upside, but he does have what is probably the highest floor of any pitcher this afternoon. Normally we chase ceilings, but on a day with options like we have today, I’m going to go with the safety net.
This pick makes me throw up a little bit in my mouth. That said, Heasley has actually been pitching really well of late. He’s been doing a great job of limiting any hard contact as his hard-hit rate is just 26% over the last month. That’s one of the best marks of any pitcher on the hill this afternoon. He’s also been in double-digit DK points in 5 of his last 7 outings.
It also helps that he draws a great matchup against a bad Tigers team. The projected lineup today has just a .149 ISO and a .291 wOBA against righties over the last month. This is far from a safe pick, but he’s been pitching well and gets a great matchup. Being only $7.1k on DK today makes me a little more comfortable using him as an SP2 today.
The one pitcher on this afternoon’s slate with any type of strikeout upside is Lucas Giolito. Over the last month, he has had a 27% K rate. The next pitcher on the list is Javier Assad at just 22%. While the year hasn’t been great for Gio, his xFIP of 3.66 tells us that a lot of it has just been bad luck for Gio.
He has a career-high BABIP of .352. His next closest season is .273. He is however coming into this off of a 9-strikeout performance against the Tigers, so his confidence is probably pretty high. Those 9 k’s were the most he’s had in a game since May. I will more than likely go with a combo of Suarez and Heasley, but if you want to feel frisky today Gio is your guy.
We’re at a weird time of the year. Many teams have been eliminated and only a handful of teams have anything to play for. The Phillies are one of the few that have a reason to play hard right now. Their loss to the Cubs last night trimmed their Wild Card lead over the Brewers to just a half-game. They are in a must-win mode right now. Luckily for them, they get a soft matchup vs. Javier Assad today.
The key for the Phillies today will be to remain patient at the plate. Assad has a ton of issues with walks of late, as evidenced by his 5.4 BB/9 over the last month. In his last 3 starts, he’s given up a combined 10 walks while striking out 11. Not exactly a great ratio. With Assad, we’ll want to attack him with lefties. Lefties have a .469 slugging % and a .363 wOBA. Both are significantly higher than what righties have done against him.
Core/Value: My Phillies core this afternoon will consist of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh. My favorite here is by far Bryce Harper. Assad throws his cutter to lefties around 36% of the time. That’s his most heavily used pitch against them. This is a pitch that Harper has crushed. Over the last several seasons, Harper has a .511 ISO and a .506 wOBA vs. righty cutters. It’s been a few days since Harper last homered and that very well could change today with how well he lines up with Assad.
While Marsh doesn’t have the power numbers against cutters that Harper has, he’s no slouch against them as he has a .440 wOBA vs. righty cutters. He’s just $2.1k today and is a great value.
Secondary Pieces: Other bats I’ll look to include here this afternoon will be Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm.
I typically reserve using the White Sox against lefties but they get a really nice matchup today. Varland has really been getting smacked around since getting called up to the big leagues. In just 16 innings of work Varland has given up 4 homers and 5 barrels. His hard-hit rate against is 41% and his flyball rate is over 45%. With both of those numbers being over 40%, it’s really a recipe for complete disaster.
So far in his big league career, it’s been the righties that have given him the most heartbreak. Righties have a .618 slugging % vs. him and a .418 wOBA. Both numbers are extremely high and he’s going to face a righty dominant lineup today. I’m not going to ignore the lefties there though because they still have a .467 slugging % vs. him.
Core: My core with the White Sox today starts and ends with Eloy Jimenez. Anytime there’s a reverse splits pitcher going against Jimenez I pounce on the opportunity to use him. He’s been phenomenal vs. righties this season, hitting over .300 and slugging over .500. He’s gone hitless in his last 2 games, but that changes today.
Secondary/Value: After locking in Jimenez, I’m going to load up on bats like Elvis Andrus, Jose Abreu, and Gavin Sheets. This has Gavin Sheets home run day written all over it. Sheets has a .262 ISO against righties over the past month and a .303 wOBA. I normally pick my spots with Sheets and this is one of the spots I really like him in. It also helps that Sheets is just $2.5k on DK this afternoon. He is one of my favorite value pieces of the day.
I will more than likely be sticking with the Phillies and White Sox, but the Red Sox are also in a good spot today. My concern with the Red Sox though is that Baumann is an extreme groundball pitcher. If you go here, you’ll want to go full stack or no stack. Home run chasing in this matchup will be extremely difficult against a pitcher that has a nearly 56% groundball rate, and one that climbs to over 80% against lefties.
That said, Baumann also gives up a ton of hard contact. His hard-hit rate over the last month is over 44%, by far the most of any pitcher on this afternoon’s slate. Lefties, while hitting a ton of grounders against him, have a hard-hit rate of over 57% against him.
Core: My Red Sox core today will start with Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts. Verdugo is really hot at the plate right now. He had another 2 hits in last night’s game, one of which left the park. He has hits in 8 straight games and very well could make it 9 today. Against righties over the last month, he has a .361 wOBA and a .208 ISO. Up next will be Devers.
Devers is also swinging a hot stick right now, with 6 hits in 12 AB in this series. He only has 2 AB vs. Baumann but is 2 for 2. He’s been of the Red Sox’s best hitters all year and should have a solid day at the plate today.
Value: I also really like Rob Refsndyer and Connor Wong here for value. Both guys are priced under $3k today and have been extremely productive of late. They should help you fit any bats you want today.
MLB DFS Summary
Other MLB DFS stacks I like today will be the Twins vs. Giolito if you don’t use him and the Royals vs. Eduardo Rodriguez. Also, if you aren’t using Heasley, stack against him with some Tigers.
Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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