This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 10-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.
**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.
DFS Stack Team: Cleveland Indians
vs. RHP Jakob Junis (KCR): 6.20 Runs
Cleveland Indians batters are as hot as can be as of late. They come into tonight’s matchup slashing to a .366 wOBA, .250 ISO, and 126 WRC+ over the last two weeks. They get a lofty 6.20 implied run total and another subpar pitching matchup. Jakob Junis carries a 5.08 ERA, 4.94 FIP, and 4.59 SIERA on the season. Batters are slashing to a .340 wOBA, .475 SLG, and .337 OBP against Junis this year. He has surrendered 64 earned runs across 113 innings pitched. Junis is giving up 1.67 HR/9 and a 41% hard contact on the year. Cleveland batters have put up four or more runs on Junis in the three meetings they have had this season. Junis hasn’t faced a Cleveland team that happens to be hitting the best they have all year long.
Preferred Plays:FranciscoLindor ($4000 FD|$4600 DK) Carlos Santana ($4300 FD|$4600 DK), Jose Ramirez ($4100 FD|$4500 DK), and Jason Kipnis ($3300 FD|$3500 DK). Also Consider: Jakob Bauers ($2600 FD|$3300 DK), and Tyler Naquin ($3000 FD|$4200 DK).
DFS Stack Team: Houston Astros
vs. RHP Ariel Jurado (TEX): 6.10 Runs
As of publication time there still wasn’t Vegas information available for this game. If I had to guess they will slap a 10.5 O/U with Houston being favorites for an implied run total of 5.60 runs. The Astros have been picking up steam, slashing to a .365 wOBA, .185 ISO, and 136 WRC+ over the last two weeks against right handed pitching. Ariel Jurado is on the mound and he carries a 4.63 ERA, 4.55 FIP, and 4.94 SIERA on the season. He is a reverse splits pitcher, allowing right handed batters to slash to a .360 wOBA, .510 SLG, and .356 OBP. Jurado just allowed five runs to this same Astros team six days ago.
Preferred Plays: Alex Bregman ($4600 FD|$5100 DK), George Springer ($4800 FD|$5500 DK), Yuli Gurriel ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), and Yordan Alvarez ($4200 FD|$5200 DK)
DFS Stack Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
vs. RHP Zach Eflin (PHI): 5.80 Runs
Zach Eflin is on the mound tonight in a hot and muggy Pittsburgh. At first pitch we are looking at a temperature around 91 degrees and 52% humidity. This is great hitting weather, so bump the bats. Eflin carries a 4.16 ERA, 4.65 FIP, and 4.71 SIERA. He is just about as bad as you would want him to be against left handed batters. They are slashing to a .357 wOBA, .543 SLG, and .333 OBP. On the road, Eflin has surrendered 16 earned runs and seven home runs to left handed batters across 25.1 innings pitched. He has been in major regression mode as of late, allowing six or more runs in three of his four last starts. Eflin faces a powerful left handed team in the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are slashing to a .365 wOBA, .202 ISO, and 127 WRC+ over the last month. Recent averages make the Pirates a bit less appealing, but with the weather, matchup, and excellent pricing I find it hard not to go for at least a two or three man mini stack.
Preferred Plays:Josh Bell ($4100 FD|$4800 DK), Bryan Reynolds ($3100 FD|$4300 DK), Corey Dickerson ($2600 FD|$3700 DK), Colin Moran ($2600 FD|$3800 DK), and Adam Frazier ($3200 FD|$3700 DK)
DFS Stack Team: Baltimore Orioles
vs. RHP Rick Porcello (BOS): 4.75 Runs
If you live somewhere on the East Coast you’re probably experiencing some of this extreme heat over the weekend. Baltimore is awful and we are looking at 95 degrees and 70% humidity around first pitch, so probably a 100+ real feel. Rick Porcello carries a 5.37 ERA, 4.59 FIP, and 5.02 SIERA. He has a 5.28 xFIP so we expect further regression. Porcello has been fairly poor on the road with batters slashing to a .362 wOBA, .531 SLG, and .340 OBP over 42.1 innings. The Baltimore Orioles are slashing to a .315 wOBA, .170 ISO, and 95 WRC+ over the last month. I do deem the Birds a high risk play, but they are in a good spot and have had success against Porcello already this season. This time the O’s get a better ballpark and the weather gives the bats a nice bump. Not to mention how cheap all these players are on both sites.
Preferred Plays:Trey Mancini ($3300 FD|$4300 DK), Jonathan Villar ($2800 FD|$4300 DK), Chance Sisco ($3100 FD|$4300 DK), and Anthony Santander ($3200 FD|$3800 DK). Also consider: Renato Nunez($3000 FD|$4400 DK) and Chris Davis ($2300 FD|$3000 DK) for value.
Dan Wehr is a real money DFS player with over four years of experience. He has several large field GPP take-downs in NFL, MLB, and NBA. His passion for DFS stems from his love affair with his home town sports teams, the Baltimore Orioles and Baltimore Ravens.