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Showdown

Week 3 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Panthers at Texans

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 3 NFL DFS Chalk: Christian McCaffrey (FD $17,500, DK $20,100)

Pivot: Sam Darnold (FD $15,000, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: D.J. Moore (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #2: Brandin Cooks (FD $13,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Panthers DST (DK $9,300)

Given how he’s used and the yardage props (136.5 rushing + receiving yards) that are posted for tonight, Christian McCaffrey has to be the chalk play, but Sam Darnold should probably be the closest pivot since he has his full complement of receiving weapons’ and the Panthers are 8-point favorites. It’s not going to be easy to get both Darnold and McCaffrey in lineups this week because of their inflated salaries, but it’s possible.

Panthers notes: The Panthers offense is mainly Darnold, McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, but Robby Anderson offers some upside at a discount. Stacking up the main options from these teams is near impossibility with any one of the Panthers corps at captain. With pricing so tight, we’re forced to look at kicker Zane Gonzalez, TE Dan Arnold and rookie WR Terrace Marshall, Jr. as the best fringe options. TE Ian Thomas is a punt play I might grab some shares of, and we could see more touches for rookie Chuba Hubbard if the game gets out of hand early. Brandon Zylstra scored a big TD last week and could be relevant tonight, but I’m more interested in the Panthers DST for the extra $1,600. They could be worth using at captain as well if that gets us both McCaffrey, Darnold and the main offensive weapon for the Texans.

Texans notes: Davis Mills is not even close to being ready for prime time, so I have little interest in jamming him into builds this week. The Texans projected team total is just 17.25 points, so the main focus of our lineups should be Brandin Cooks, bargain option Chris Conley (who saw his snap share rise up to 90 in Week 2 with the injuries to Danny Amendola and Nico Collins — both out tonight). I’m also comfortable facing Mark Ingram, since we’ll likely see more of both Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson on the short week and assuming a game script that forces Mills to pepper his RBs with dump-offs. Sure, the Texans could just feed Ingram and the other backs all day and find enough success to keep it close, but I just don’t see this happening too far into the second half. Other worthwhile options include TE Jordan Akins and former Bears WR Anthony Miller, who could be in the mix if he suits up tonight. The only sub-$1K guys I see who could contributing are Andre Roberts (who may not see as many snaps if Miller is active) and Rex Burkhead, but he’s probably only an option if one or more of the main Houston RBs sits this one out.

Week 3 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar. I’ve built one lineup so far that leaves $1K on the table, and I’m fine leaving up to about $2K out there if the narrative makes sense. It could get weird tonight, even with the tight pricing.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. Houston WRs Miller and Conley are about as cheap as I’ll go, even if both are viable in this particular showdown.

Now that we’ve established some Week 3 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Christian McCaffrey
Sam Darnold
D.J. Moore
Brandin Cooks
Robby Anderson
Davis Mills
Mark Ingram
Panthers DST
Phillip Lindsay
Dan Arnold
David Johnson
Terrace Marshall, Jr.
Chris Conley
Jordan Akins
Brandon Zylstra
Zane Gonzalez
Joey Slye
Anthony Miller
Ian Thomas
Chuba Hubbard
Texans DST
Andre Roberts
Rex Burkhead

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

3 years ago 0 comment

Week 2 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Lions at Packers

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 2 NFL DFS Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (FD $16,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot: Davante Adams (FD $15,000, DK $17,700)

Contrarian #1: Aaron Jones (FD $12,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: Jared Goff (FD $14,500, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: T.J. Hockenson (FD $11,000, DK $14,400)

I have to believe that despite Davante Adams being the most expensive player on the slate and a poor week 1 performance from three-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, the Packers QB will be the chalk for showdown captain. The Lions secondary is now without Jeff Okudah (again) and there’s a lot of new faces on a team that in Week 1 only had to contend with Jimmy Garoppolo. Rodgers is poised for a bounceback game at home on prime time — his favorite time to shine. There’s probably enough value in the Lions secondary receiving options to warrant using Rodgers at captain and just finding ways to fit Adams and some bargain pieces.

Packers notes: Rostering Rodgers/Adams somewhere in your six slots is the priority here, and Randall Cobb ($3K captain/$2K flex) offers perhaps the best value among the other skills positions for the Packers. Marques Valdez-Scantling saw eight targets in Week 1, but I’m still more interested in Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan as the most important offensive weapons not named “Davante.” Tonyan hasn’t traditionally done as much work between the 20s and has done most of his eating in the red zone, but a new game plan for confusing a relatively weak nickel/LB corps means he could see a few extra check-down targets this week. I’d also expect the touches and targets for Jones to at least double what he saw in Week 1 (five carries, two targets), but the new Lions base defensive scheme could be vulnerable to a big day from Jones, since there’s just three down linemen, two outside linebackers and two off-ball, “inside” LBs — more of a 5-2 front with the two edge players standing up instead of having hands in the dirt. For that reason, we could see A.J. Dillon used more this week, but he only played 16 snaps in Week 1.

Lions notes: If we ignore the running games altogether, there’s a clear path to getting Jared Goff with T.J. Hockenson and a value WR along with Rodgers/Adams if we take a shot on Cobb at captain, but that’s more of a longshot build. With the injuries to Lions WRs Tyrell Williams (out, concussion) and Khalif Raymond (thigh, questionable) the smart move might be to eliminate the always risky Goff from our builds and focus on Hockenson along with cheap WRs Quintez Cephus (six targets in Week 1) and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (3-50-0 on four targets in his debut). D’Andre Swift is perhaps the most dynamic player in the Lions offense and was a target monster in Week 1` (8-65-1 on 11 targets to go along with 39 rushing yards), but he’s questionable despite being expected to suit up in the contest. Former Packer RB Jamaal Williams had solid Week 1 as well, finishing with 8-56-0 receiving on nine targets and racking up 54 rushing yards on just nine carries. If the Packers jump out to a big lead like the 49ers did in Week 1, we could see similar totals in the MNF game script.

Week 2 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which are both weak and don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 49-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Play too much Jared Goff. He’s not that good, and we know this.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Aaron Rodgers
Davante Adams
T.J. Hockenson
Aaron Jones
D’Andre Swift
Jared Goff
Robert Tonyan
Jamaal Williams
Randall Cobb
Quintez Cephus
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Marques Valdez-Scantling
A.J. Dillon
Packers DST
Allen Lazard
Mason Crosby
Trinity Benson
Austin Seibert
Lions DST
Marcedes Lewis
Daniel Fells
Kylin Hill

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.

Vegas Script: Total: 53 Chiefs -4

It goes without saying that this is going to be an explosive contest with several of the most prolific fantasy producers in the NFL. While we do have tons of points to be scored the player pool is relatively small so the tough part is going to be finding the cheap value play that will allow you to fit all of the studs that we want in our lineups.

Captains:

No need to get cute in your captain spot this week unless you want to donate. There are four or five guys you should play and no more.

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, $12,600

Do I really need to explain this one? If Derek Carr went off for 400+ yards what do you think Mahomes could do? He will be the chalk and for good reason. The Ravens are going to have an impossible task of running man against two 4.2 speed receivers and the best tight end in the league.

Pivot: Lamar Jackson, Ravens, $11,800:

The weakness of the Chiefs has always been the run game and that is the one thing that the Ravens and Lamar do exceedingly well. The run totals will be there regardless but in this game he will have to produce in the air if they are to have any chance at winning this game. Just keep in mind Lamar has only exceeded 300 yards passing two times in his entire career so temper you expectations as to what those passing numbers will be.

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce, Chiefs, $10,400:

If I do not use either Lamar or Mahomes I have a ton of confidence that Kelce will have a monster of a game and will be my #1 play outside of them. The Raiders last week took that man defense and shredded if for over 400 yards and they did it using Darren Waller to the tune of 10 catches, on 19 targets, for 105 yards, and a TD. The thing is, Waller was open way more than even what his stats show, Carr was just unable to get it to him. Mahomes and Andy Reid are not going to miss in that way. If for some reason the Raven do try to move into a zone coverage Kelce is still the big target to go to as they clear the zones out with Hardman and Hill, leaving Kelce free down the seem and in crossing routes. He is the cheat code for me today.

Contrarian #2: Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, $10,600

The Ravens run tons of man concepts, cover one, and heavy pressure. All of these things can be exploited by the speed of the cheetah and the elusiveness of Mahomes. I am going to lean on Kelce but do not let that deter you from using Hill in a few captain spots. He is still in a smash spot and he gives you a little added boost with the potential for a return touchdown.

Contrarian#3: Sammy Watkins, Ravens, $7,800:

I do not think you should go any further down than the four players about but if you are desperate to find someone else as a captain you can get Sammy Watkins at 2% in a revenge narrative. We saw Sammy get 8 targets for 96 yards in week one and I think the Ravens will absolutely have to throw the ball to keep up. But if you do this please understand who we are talking about here. Watkins has made a habit of having a big week one only to do nothing for the rest of the season. It has happened multiple years in a row. I think most of the fantasy community is on to that as well so we are talking very high risk, very high reward.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19 Flex Plays:

Mark Andrews
Ty’Son Williams
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Latavius Murray
Marquis Brown (Questionable, Ankle)
Mecole Hardman
Harrison Butker
Demarcus Robinson
Byron Pringle
Devin Duvernay (Questionable, Groin/If Brown is out Duvernay becomes very interesting play)
Chiefs Defense (Only using if paired with Hill)

Kickers and defenses:

I really do not think you need to go here today. The only justification I can make for it is if you need a cheap Harrison Butker as a final piece or if you are taking a high risk approach and pairing Hill with the D/ST to double dip on a long shot return touchdown. I am not messing with Tucker this week because if KC comes out hot kicking field goals is not going to do them any good and John Harbaugh knows it.

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 2 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Giants at Washington

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see last week’s TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 2 NFL DFS Chalk: Daniel Jones (FD $15,000, DK $15,600)

Pivot: Antonio Gibson (FD $12,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #1: Taylor Heinicke (FD $14,500, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Terry McLaurin (FD $12,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #3: Sterling Shepard (FD $11,500, DK $12,000)

We don’t have an obvious chalk play at captain for this week’s showdown, but when the final tallies are in, it’s likely to be one of the two starting QBs. Both Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke have high ceilings and low floors, and while it’s rare that we focus on a RB in the top spot in showdowns, this might be the week to give Antonio Gibson the opportunity to carry us to victory. It’s also a week where leaving a large amount of salary on the table shouldn’t concern us too much.

Giants notes: Even against a solid Broncos defense, Jones tallied 22.38 DK points. His 267-1-0 passing line was inefficient but his fantasy total got a boost from a 27 rushing yards and a rushing TD, also tempered by a lost fumble — something that continually plagues the third-year QB. This week, he’ll be without TE Evan Engram again, and reports of a limited Saquon Barkley could further complicate the Giants’ offensive outlook. While a full-strength Barkley is a player I’d be looking to force into my showdown lineups, I have almost no interest in paying full price for the guy in a reduced role. I’ll have some exposure, but I’m a lot more interested in getting shares of top target Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, who’s done nothing but exceed expectations since he entered the league, even when he’s playing hurt. I’ll also find ways to get some exposure to a seemingly healthy Kenny Golladay, TE Kyle Rudolph, and backup RB Devontae Booker — especially if we get word he’ll assume a much larger workload. There’s a good chance that we get a negative game script where Booker sees a few extra targets in the passing game.

Washington notes: Some of my builds will immediately start off locking in Heinicke/Gibson with WR Terry McLaurin, and I’ll have a few more that add in TE Logan Thomas, a top 10 fantasy tight end who had just three targets last week but should normally be seeing 6-8 on a weekly basis. I don’t view McLaurin as a must-play in this particular matchup, but he does have a high ceiling. If you’re playing cash games, we can probably finalize an ideal build without spending up for the highest-priced WR in the contest. I’ll have the most shares of Gibson, and there’s an easy path to some formidable lineups that start with Gibson/Thomas and then focus on the Giants passing game. In some large-field GPPs where maximizing salary is less of an issue, it’s a good idea to mix in some Gibson/Thomas/Washington DST with a kicker and a couple Giants pass catchers. Dyami Brown saw four targets in his NFL debut but caught just one pass for -2 yards, and there’s always veteran WR Adam Humphries, who I actually liked better with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Still — Humphries and even WR Cam Sims are relatively cheap and could make for a final piece in your builds.

Week 2 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar. With Saquon Barkley possibly seeing a reduced workload, there’s plenty of value out there (and a wide enough range of outcomes that don’t prominently feature both QBs having huge days) where you can get a little weird

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. I’ve looked it over and there’s just not a lot there to get excited about.

Daniel Jones
Antonio Gibson
Taylor Heinicke
Logan Thomas
Sterling Shepard
Terry McLaurin
Darius Slayton
Kenny Golladay
Saquon Barkley (questionable, could be limited)
Washington DST
Devontae Booker
Dustin Hopkins
Adam Humphries
Kyle Rudolph
Graham Gano
Giants DST
J.D. McKissic
Dyami Brown
Cam Sims
Kadarius Toney

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 1 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Ravens at Raiders

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Lamar Jackson (FD $17,000, DK $18,600)

Pivot: Darren Waller (FD $13,000, DK $16,200)

Contrarian #1: Mark Andrews (FD $13,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #2: Derek Carr (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #3: Ty’Son Williams (FD $12,000, DK $10,200)

Lamar Jackson is far and away the most expensive (and highest-upside) player in this contest, but I think we’re going to need him in the MVP spot or one of the FLEX spots to cash. The Raiders defense is dealing with lots of turnover and communication/teamwork aspects of their unit could see some struggles in Week 1, especially against a playmaker like Jackson. He should be running a little more than usual with the makeshift backfield they’re employing, and all the new faces just getting into the Baltimore system.

Ravens notes: The most important players to roster will be Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, RB Ty’Son Williams (who could see an enormous Week 1 workload) and WR Marquise Brown, but we could see some of the newly acquired veterans (Latavius Murray and Sammy Watkins stand out the most) or fringe offensive players like Devin Duvernay — or even rookie Tylan Wallace — play a role. I’m also very intersted in the Ravens DST and K Justin Tucker, since this one could be lower-scoring than if both these offenses ere at full strength.

Raiders notes: Josh Jacobs is questionable to play tonight, and the best possible offensive combo for the Raiders is likely Derek Carr/Darren Waller, with Waller being the best one-off if we overstack Ravens. We’re not getting enough of a discount on Kenyan Drake to focus too much on him, but he’s a GPP play given his ability to haul in reception and rack up the points that way — especially if Jacobs is unavailable. It’s interesting to see the less heralded WR Bryan Edwards with a salary higher than WR Henry Ruggs III, who is another possible playmaker. We also have to consider Hunter Renfrow and Willie Snead IV, but these WRS are all pretty risky plays.

Week 1 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use too many Raiders. I could see 3 BAL/3 LV working, but most of my builds will be 4 BAL/2 LV.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Ignore kickers and defenses. Both Tucker and the Ravens DST are in play, and Daniel Carlson could factor as well tonight.

Lamar Jackson
Mark Andrews
Darren Waller
Ty’Son Williams
Derek Carr
Marquise Brown
Ravens DST
Henry Ruggs III
Bryan Edwards
Josh Jacobs (questionable, so only if he plays)
Kenyan Drake
Sammy Watkins
Justin Tucker
Latavius Murray
Hunter Renfrow
Tylan Wallace
Devin Duvernay
Peyton Barber
Willie Snead
Daniel Carlson
Raiders DST
James Proche

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bears at Rams 9.12

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green greens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. In terms of actual football I am not terribly interested. The Rams should come out on top pretty comfortably. But in terms of fantasy we have several targets to take advantage of. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bears at Rams 9.12

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.

Vegas Script: Total: 46.5/ -110 both ways Rams: -8.5 -110 both ways

Vegas sees this as a comfortable victory for the Rams at home with a pretty low total by today’s NFL standard. Both teams are stout defensively. But the Rams are much more talented on offense and Sean McVay is the coach and play caller that Matt Nagy thinks he is in his head. It is very much an expectation vs. reality meme when you put these two guys together.

When building showdown lineup you use game scripts to build your lineups as opposed to simply playing the best plays. Playing wide receivers when you expect a team to be down big early and pairing a defense with a running back that you expect to be up big are things that you need to think about. The key is picking the correct script with the correct player combination if you want any chance to be successful.

Captains:

Chalk: Matthew Stafford, Rams, $11,600:

Clear chalk today is probably no surprise to anyone. Stafford has been hyped up in the DFS community all offseason and the Rams running game did take a bit of a step back with Cam Akers out for the season. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are one of the better tandems in the NFL and regardless of how stingy the Bears can be at times there will still have to be some points scored from somewhere.

Pivot: Allen Robinson, Bears, $10,200:

I cannot sit there here writing a showdown article with the Bears and not include Allen Robinson as a captain play no matter who it is. He is the best offensive weapon by far and he regularly beats lockdown corners including Jalen Ramsey. Last season Robinson caught 4 passes for 70 yards with Ramsey as the shadow. I do not have a ton of faith in the Bears, but I never have and Robinson has always performed in spite of that.

Contrarian #1: Rams Defense $6,400:

10 points against, 2 picks, and four sacks for 15 DK points. That was the stat line in week seven against the Bears last season. I know the Bears now have Andy Dalton at QB but is that really any different? The Rams run a modified Seattle Cover three scheme which is potent when to have top level talent up front to force QB’s to throw early and out of rhythm and the Rams have arguably the best defensive front in the NFL

Contrarian #2: Sony Michel, Rams, $4,800:

This is where I will get a little different. With Stafford being the chalk it makes sense that players like Kupp and Woods are going to have the higher numbers but I am going to take some shots with new Rams running back Sony Michel. The starting nose tackle for the Bears Eddie Goldman is out, leaving a huge opening in their 3-4 defense. I do have some concern that this may be a split backfield situation with Darrel Henderson, but of the two I think Sony is the better option of the two.

Contrarian#3: Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp:

Using either Woods or Kupp is my final contrarian option and it really is a matter of personal preference. We did not really get anything in the preseason to tell us whether Stafford had a lean of one over the other and you can not use last season as a gauge because Goff could only get through two reads so they were the only choices most weeks. However, if you take a look at our projection model Woods is projected for 15.61 and Kupp is only 11.44 DK points. You know what we say here and if you don’t let me be the first to say: When in doubt, TRUST THE MODEL.

Kickers and defenses:

I do think that in this showdown a case can be made mixing in kickers and defenses. Especially defenses if your script involves the running game on either side. I prefer the Rams over the Bears given Chicago’s ineptitude offensively under Nagy and Andy Dalton’s leadership. I do plan on running a lineup with the Rams as my captain, just in case.

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bears at Rams 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 1 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Cowboys at Bucs

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season begins with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

A Refresher on Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel calls them “Single-Game Contests,” but the gist is that we need to break down a single game and be aware of the narratives, opportunities and game theory techniques to help drive our success.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will give you leverage.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (FD $16,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Dak Prescott (FD $15,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #1: Mike Evans (FD $13,000, DK $13,800)

Contrarian #2: CeeDee Lamb (FD $10,000, DK $12,300)

Contrarian #3: Ronald Jones (FD $9,500, DK $7,500)

I’m leaning toward using the chalky Tom Brady as my MVP on FanDuel based on the lack of salary multiplier and his propensity to both spread it around and not really stop running up the score. I may find a different route on DraftKings.

Tampa Bay notes: Getting some combination of Brady, Evans and Jones is probably the safest way to approach this offense. If you’re going to play the Bucs DST, and that’s not a terrible strategy for a few GPPs then it’s probably important you use one or more Bucs RBs. Jones is technically the lead back, but Leonard Fournette is still an explosive player with sneaky value if Jones isn’t getting it done. Chris Godwin was nursing a hamstring injury, and he’s actually been left off the final injury report after being limited Tuesday, but I’m most interested in the matchup nightmare that Evans presents for the Cowboys. Aside from Brady, he has the biggest upside. If Godwin sits, we can consider Antonio Brown, who’s listed as questionable but has been trending up in recent weeks as someone finally gelling with the Bucs system and Brady.

Dallas notes: With the absence of OL Zack Martin due to COVID and the Buccaneers solid rush defense, I’m a little less interested in Ezekiel Elliott. I’ll prioritize Prescott/Lamb and either Michael Gallup (with Bucs safety Jordan Whitehead on the shelf for Week 1), but Amari Cooper remains in play for GPPs. Blake Jarwin offers some value at $5,200 on DK, but he’s more of a GPP play as well given how well the Bucs LBS defend that territory and the red zone, where he gets most of his looks.

Week 1 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Get cute with the sub $1K players in this one. Both offenses should be approaching full strength and unless we get breaking news close to lock, there’s not much in that range we can use.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use both kickers and defenses. There are some showdowns where using that strategy can help find the magic mix, but this Thursday night isn’t that night.

Tom Brady
Dak Prescott
Mike Evans
CeeDee Lamb
Ronald Jones
Chris Godwin
Michael Gallup
Ezekiel Elliott
Amari Cooper
Bucs DST
Antonio Brown
Leonard Fournette
Rob Gronkowski
Blake Jarwin
Giovani Bernard
Tony Pollard
O.J. Howard
Ryan Succop
Greg Zuerlein
Cowboys DST
Cameron Brate

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

This is it folks, the final Showdown slate of the NFL season and although we have two of the season’s laughing stocks going head to head if Washington wins they win the division. What that means for us is that we don’t have to worry about the teams packing it in during the second half. There are however, a ton of injuries to key guys which will more than likely make this an ugly one. But enough talk let’s dig into Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia.

Let’s get to the game!

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia:

Chalk: Jalen Hurts $17,100

Pivot: Antonio Gibson $13,500

Contrarian #1: Logan Thomas $11,700

Contrarian #2: Jordan Howard/Boston Scott, $1,500/$2,100

Contrarian #3 Terry McLaurin $15,000

****Bonus Play**** Zack Ertz $6,900: He has not had a good year by any stretch but he is the ONLY tight end available for the Eagles. My only pause putting him up top is that it isn’t Wentz behind center but if he’s the guy, I’m gonna take a chance.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia:

Vegas: 43 Point Total/Washington: -6.5

Weather: Upper 30’s with rain and wind around 10MPH

It has been a rainy, sloppy mess in the city of brotherly love and Vegas isn’t expecting much in term of scoring with a 43 point total. The number that is a little strange to me is that Washington is projected as a 6.5 point favorite. If you have ever heard me and Michael Rasile talk during our Thursday Night Showdown stream you’ve likely heard us talk about how bigger spreads don’t really make a ton of sense in low total games. Don’t get me wrong I do think this will be very low scoring with guys like Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Desean Jackson out for the Eagles and Alex Smith, Terry McLaurin, and to a lesser extent Antonio Gibson being limited due to injuries. My overarching approach in this game is going to be to limit my exposure in any one lineup to your “big play” pass catchers (not that we have a ton) due to the injuries, especially on the Washington side. Instead, I’m going to focus on the possession style, move the chain plays and defenses for my core.

The clear favorite that I think we will see everyone gravitate towards is Jalen Hurts, he provides a floor/ceiling with his ability to run that nobody else can give you in this contest. Of 10 lineups he will likely occupy four of my captain spots. The only other guys that interest me in any way for captains on the Eagles side are Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. I’m not sure which of these guys will get the bulk of the work so it would be a good idea to make a lineup and just but each in that spot so that you don’t miss out. The value provided by both will allow you to go anywhere you want for the rest of your lineup.

The Washington side of the ball is equally as frustrating and in many ways worse due to the uncertainty. Terry McLaurin is my final contrarian play but I really struggled back and forth with whether or not I would put him in there. He is only two weeks removed from a high ankle sprain that takes 4-6 weeks to heal. The field conditions being what they are means that on slip and he is gone. Additionally, if Washington gets ahead early I don’t see them putting him on the field. He is only playing because of the must win situation. I’ll have him in one lineup at captain, that’s it. The remainder of my lines for captain will likely revolve around Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson. Logan has had 12 and 16 targets respectively in each of the last two weeks and with Alex Smith’s calf injury, Terry’s limitations, and the current weather conditions being what they are I see that continuing tonight. Antonio Gibson to this point is my favorite Washington player. He does carry a Q tag but this doesn’t seem like the same situation as Alex Smith and Terry McLaurin. Gibson has always sounded like this would be play where Alex and Terry are only in due to the scenario.

I do have one more low owned captain thought even though it isn’t listed above. I think this would be a good week to run a lineup or two with one or both defenses at captain. Both teams are dealing with significant injury issues in key offensive spots, the field will likely be a mess, and divisional contests tend to be lower scoring. My favorite of the two is actually Washington’s defense. They have been impressive all season and as dynamic as Hurts is in the early going he has had issues with ball security. He’s only lost one but he has actually fumbled the ball five times in the last two weeks and he threw two picks against Dallas last week. Players who fumble that much don’t tend to stay lucky over the long run.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As I noted above both defenses are viable and given the low score being projected both kickers are firmly in play for a cheap way to get points. Temper your expectations when it comes to your flex plays. Points will likely be difficult to come by.

Washington: Defense, JD McKissic, Cam Sims, Dustin Hopkins, Dontrell Inman, Peyton Barber

Philadelphia: Defense, Zach Ertz, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, Jake Elliott

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

We are almost at the end of the line folks. Only 8 days days until we find out who our playoff teams are and it’s time for us at Win Daily to finish strong. The fantasy gods have blessed us with some terrific showdown slates and this one is no different. King Henry versus A-Aron, could you ask for anything more in a showdown slate? Let’s not waste any more time. I want to get us in a position to win big this week.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

Let’s get to the game!

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Chalk: Derrick Henry $18,600

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,400

Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $16,500

Contrarian #2: Aaron Jones $14,100

Contrarian #3 Corey Davis $11,700

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Vegas: 54.5 Point Total/Packers: -3

Weather: Upper 20’s with snow and wind around 15MPH

I’m going to start this off by saying that we have seven guys who can legitimately be in the captain spot and I wouldn’t think twice about it. So I will be leaving guys out. I don’t really think we’re going to have a “chalk” play. I think we’ll see the first four on my list above at roughly the same 15-20% range with the rest being significantly lower. This will be a case where if you’re throwing a single bullet out there you would be better off saving it for another contest. You need at least 10 lineup variations at minimum to even get you enough combinations to compete. I’m personally looking at making at least 20 lineups.

Vegas is projecting this to be an extremely high scoring and close contest and I’m expecting Derrick Henry to have his highest touch count on the season in this one given how stout the secondary for the Packers are. The question of the day will be who gets Jaire Alexander and who gets Kevin King. My lean is that Jaire will shadow Brown, leaving Corey Davis as my primary target. But, Green Bay runs almost 70% zone defense and both Brown and Davis can be considered one’s at this point. Alexander did largely shadow Calvin Ridley way back in week four and didn’t record a catch so if you’re looking for a comp there you go. My take on this will be to limit lineups with both receivers. I think one or the other will be shut down when it is all said and done.

I don’t think Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, or Davante Adams need much explanation. The Titans are an absolute disaster defensively through the air and on the ground. We also don’t have to worry about the insanity that is Matt LaFleur’s ridiculous split backfield with Jamaal Williams out. Adams is still getting his 10 plus targets a game. A small but crucial note in showdowns where every fraction of a point matters is that Aaron Rodgers is now running the ball between 4-6 over the last 3 games compared to the 1-2 per earlier in the year.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

With the snow and wind we are expecting at Lambeau Field I am going to be very underweight with both kickers. I would rather take a shot on a $200 salary dart to fit another top guy in than pay 4k to get 4-6 points and have to downgrade elsewhere. I know Aaron Jones will be the guy but I don’t think he’ll get 100% of the snaps so AJ Dillon is worth a hard look as a flex at $1,400.

Titans: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, Darrynton Evans, Cameron Batson

Packers: Robert Tonyan, AJ Dillon, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Allen Lazard, Equanamious St. Brown, Marcedes Lewis

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

Let’s get to the game!

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants:

Chalk: Nick Chubb $16,800

Pivot: Jarvis Landry $14,700

Contrarian #1: Kareem Hunt $10,500

Contrarian #2: Daruis Slayton $9,300

Contrarian #3 Wayne Gallman $13,200

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants:

Vegas: 44.5 Point Total/Browns: -6.5

Weather: Mid/Upper 30’s, light wind

With Colt McCoy expected to take the helm once again Vegas is projecting this to be a messy, low scoring struggle with the Browns getting ahead early. Once thing that is strange with this one is the – 6.5 for the Browns. I know the Giants defense is underrated but there isn’t a defense in the league that can hold up to two pro bowl caliber running backs for 4 quarters when they don’t have an offense that can give them at least a little bit of a breather. That number feels like it should be at least -7.5 and at some point the Giants front seven will get worn out leaving Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt plenty of room to run free so it should be no surprise this I think Chubb will be big chalk and Hunt his my first contrarian captain play. This thought process also dictates my pivot of Jarvis Landry. He’s been playing great football since OBJ went down. He catches everything under the sun and he’s even good to throw a touchdown every so often. The front seven is legit but New Yorks clear defensive weakness is the secondary. There just isn’t anyone back there who can stop Landry. I know we gave the Browns a hard time when it comes to the passing game but in several of those duds they were dealing with some of the worst wind I can recall seeing so I’m praying that a little of that still lingers in the back of peoples minds. While I don’t think the Giants will get much done offensively I do like Darius Slayton against the soft Cleveland secondary. Denzel Ward is a bit of a concern but the Browns play about 70 percent zone defense so the deep post, bunch formations, and double moves a perfect for Slayton to break one or two open downfield. You guys should know by now that I love Slayton against a Cover-2 Zone concept. With Evan Engram dealing with a calf issue Slayton is the clear preferred target for Colt. Wayne Gallman is the only other Giant I would consider at Captain due to McCoy’s tendency to check down and Gallman has proven himself to be a versatile back who can be used in any game script. Did I mention he has had double digit DK point outings in seven straight?

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

If you are playing onslaught scripts both defenses are in play. The Giants can get to the QB causing Baker issues potentially an I just talked at length about how bad the Giants offense is. Low wind so both kickers are in play also. I’m going to list him below but be cautious with Evan Engram. He typically does poorly with soft tissue injuries and I don’t see him finishing this game. Austin Hooper is also I’m concerned with while he’s dealing with a neck issue. Keep an eye on Marvin Hall’s status everyone. If he plays for the Browns tonight that is your potential min price slate breaker!

Giants: Defense, Sterling Shepperd, Golden Tate, Evan Engram (Q, calf), Alfred Morris (eww), Dion Lewis (eww), Graham Gano

Browns: Defense, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Austin Hooper (Q, neck), Cody Parkey, Harrison Bryant, Marvin Hall (verify active)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

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