Showdown

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams:

This will be one of the longer Showdown articles I do this season just due to how much of an enigma both teams can be. Instead of putting all of my plays in a single paragraph I want to break this one down by scenarios so that you can more clearly see your path based on which script you want to go with in a given lineup. The range of outcomes is massive with each team playing great and horrible football from one week to another so your player pool overall will be larger than usual but at the same time it will be very narrow based on the script you choose.

Chalk: Cam Newton $15,900

Pivot: Cooper Kupp $14,400

Contrarian #1: Cam Akers $12,000 (See Scenario 2)

Contrarian #2: Damien Harris $13,200 (See Scenario 2)

Contrarian #3: Either Defense ($6,600 Rams/$6,300 Patriots) (Depending on your script)

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams:

Vegas: 45 Point Total/Rams: -5

Weather: It’s LA, we’re good.

Scenario 1: Vegas Script

We should start our showdown builds on most nights with what Las Vegas is projecting. They are the OG’s of sports betting and they are right more often than not. The expectation is the Rams will win this one close and the total score is low enough for you to expect the offenses to struggle a bit.

In this script and overall I would expect the chalk to fall to Cam Newton for two reasons. First, with the exception of Jakobi Myers there is no one else outside of a dart throw that gets consistent work in the air. That leaves Cam and Damien Harris as the only reasonable options at captain for New England in your main builds. Second, no matter the issues in the air he still maintains pretty consistent value with what he can do on the ground.

On the other side of the ball in this scenario the trick is figuring out who Bill Belichick is going to choose to shut down. With Goff not being a runner, I would keep him as a flex option in a lower total game. My lean is that he’ll try to shut down Robert Woods. The snap count has been decreasing for Cooper Kupp in favor of more two tight end sets and the expanded roles of Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson recently. The upside is still there for Kupp so he would be my choice in this situation.

Scenario 2: Bad Cam Shows Up

Here comes the Cam slander as one of our subscribers likes to say. He has put up some of the worst QB numbers of his career this season and actually played badly enough to get benched in week seven where he put up 2.82 DK points.

The way this happens is a combination of two things. The Rams defense has a few big plays early on, the offense scores a couple of early touchdowns and the Patriots will be unable to hide Cam with the run game. In this situation we are talking about a 5-1 or 4-2 build in favor of the Rams. In most cases you want to target the trailing team but when it goes bad for the Patriots this year nobody produces with the exception of someone like James White.

If you are running a huge number of lineups take a handful of shots on him at captain. In two of our three game scripts White would be the preferred running back do to the passing game work. His ceiling looks to be limited at around 15 points in a PPR format this season but he still looks capable of his 25+ point upside games. In this scenario you can either run with a WR like Kupp if you think the quick scores come from him in or you can go with a back like Cam Akers in the captain spot.

Akers finally had his first game with more than 20 carries and it looks like he may be the guy but this feels like a bit of a trap as I mentioned in discord. He’s never had double digit touches in back to back weeks, he was limited in practice this week logging only one full practice, we’re on a short week, and Malcom Brown and Darrel Henderson only saw a 16% and 23% snap share respectively on Sunday. It wouldn’t surprise me if they kept the snap count low so they would be fresh on Thursday. So although it looks like it is Cams job now, I will be running some lineups with Henderson and Brown at captain in this scenario.

Scenario 3: Bad Goff shows up

I’m not just slandering cam today, Jared Goff has had his share of terrible games over the last two seasons. Just two weeks ago against the 49ers he put up a dud with a 6.02 DK outing. He has a difficult time against exotic looks and we know Bill has a huge playbook to pull from in that regard. The Pats have also really stepped up on the defensive side of the ball even after losing the majority of their defensive stars in the offseason.

In this scenario we have three primary captains we should look at, Cam Newton, Patriots defense, and Damien Harris. It looks like Bill is toning town the RBBC scheme that has driven us crazy and the scenarios on which to use is pretty straightforward. If the wheels fall of for the Rams we could cross off most of the players sans Matt Gay (Questionable) and Cooper Kupp. Goff struggled against the more exotic looks in week 8 against the Dolphins and Cooper Kupp got 20 targets in the process. He will always be his safety blanket. As a flex option only, I would also not be against some Sony Michel in this situation. He got about 10 carries in the blowout against the Chargers. He could have gotten more but instead they decided to roll out Jakob Johnson so I wouldn’t expect much more than that due to his injury history (hope that statement doesn’t come back to bite me).

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Kickers in low scoring games are firmly in play and with the way both offenses struggle at times you could see a number of long field goal attempts. Also with the recent increase in return touchdowns if you choose to go with a defense at captain going with the return man has become a good low owned option and an attempt to double dip on DraftKings. Another thing that you really need to consider when choosing flex’s.

Both the Patriots and Rams have a secondary where they can shut the primary receiver down. I could be completely off base and they chose to shut down Goff other than Woods but it is no secret that Jakobi Meyers is the only receiver who poses any threat so if Ramsey gives anyone the shadow treatment it will be him so I will likely be underweight on him.

Rams: Jared Goff, Matt Gay, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everette, Josh Reynolds, Malcom Brown, Darrel Henderson, Van Jefferson

Patriots: Jacoki Meyers, James White, Gunner Owlzewski (Returner, DK Only), Damiere Byrd, Sony Michel, Donte Moncreif (only large field GPP’s as a last option)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore:

I’ve been trying to get a little more unique in some of my pivots over the last several showdowns and to this point we have found ourselves in good position at the end of the game. We all know who big chalk in this game. Lamar Jackson’s ownership in the captain spot is likely to get close to 30%. It is for very good reason though. The Cowboys are an absolute mess defensively and this might get out of hand quickly.

Chalk: Lamar Jackson $17,400

Pivot: JK Dobbins $12,900

Contrarian #1: Marquise Brown $10,800

Contrarian #2: Baltimore Defense $8,700

Contrarian #3: CeeDee Lamb $9,900

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore:

***For those who like narratives: Dez Bryant “revenge game”. He says it is water under the bridge but I do not really believe him.

Vegas: 45 Point Total/Ravens: -8

Weather: Upper 30’s, 8-10 MPH Wind

Vegas is telling us to to expect a pretty solid beatdown with the Ravens projected as 8 point favorites with a 45 point total. I don’t plan on giving Dallas that much credit. The Ravens blitz on almost 43% of their plays this season, Andy Dalton is terrible under pressure, and now Zack Martin is on the IR. I think the Ravens are going to have a field day. With that being said, you know we always say run 10 lines in showdown. You should have one or two under the expectation that Dallas has a solid day. We just saw the Pittsburgh lose to Washington. Anything can happen in showdown.

No need to explain Lamar Jackson at captain against this defense. JK Dobbins should be pretty self explanatory as well. Three of the last four weeks he has gotten no less that 14 touches which, for this overloaded backfield, is about as good are you’ll get without an injury or two. He is also the most well rounded back for Baltimore so in the freak occurrence that the Raven get behind he still gets used in the passing game.

If there is any game that Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown could completely click and dominate this would be the one. While everyone like to bag on the Cowboy’s offense (deserved, good job McCarthy), the defense is even worse. They’ve given up 31 or more points in seven of their 11 games this year and have yet to hold a single opponent to under 20 points, and even that was week 1. As a reminder, they play the Giants, Eagles, and Washington twice a year…

Remember what I said about the Ravens blitz rate and The Red Water Pistol? This is the first and likely only time this season I will recommend a defense at the captains spot outside of just a random MME dart throw. I would be surprised if they didn’t get multiple sacks, multiple picks, and a pick 6.

Now that I said all of that we can expect the Cowboys to prove me wrong on every front so for my final pivot I’ll give you my favorite Cowboy. It’s not Zeke, he’s been garbage with Mike McCarthy as the head coach and that will not change. We need confirmation of 10 defensive players and their respective ailments. If either Jimmy Smith, Tramon Williams, or
Davontae Harris miss in the secondary they will not have the numbers to cover all three of the Cowboys receivers. Not to mention Safeties Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott are questionable with injuries as well.

If the Cowboys can protect Dalton I think CeeDee Lamb going across the middle of the field will be dangerous proposition. The Ravens are deep in terms of physical talent in the secondary but where they will have a problem is communicating in confusing situations like heavy motion, bunch routes, and crossing routes. Do I think It’ll happen? No. But when playing in showdown you have to cover all of your bases

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both kickers are in play and you have a ton of options for both teams to choose from. Most of my builds will have the same four guys and I really only plan to pick different flex options in those two spot to differentiate.

Cowboys: Amari Cooper, Dalton Shultz, Andy Dalton, Michael Gallup, Greg Zuerlein, Ezekiel Elliott, Cedrick Wilson

Ravens: Mark Ingram, Justin Tucker, Devin Duvernay, Willy Snead (if he plays), Myles Boykin, Luke Willson, Gus Edwards, Dez Bryant

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh:

This one feels a bit strange to me. Washington is 5-7 on the season and for the most part the offense has been largely inept but they sit at 2-2 since the return of Alex Smith and in the two games where he lost he put up 325 and 390 yard respectively. By no stretch do I think they will win and it was the easiest 4 game stretch that you could even have for a team. I just see signs of life from Washington and the Steelers tend to play down or up to their level of competition. You should largely be able to get who you want today with the highest price being Ben Roethlisberger at 15,900.

Chalk: Benny Snell $11,400

Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger $15,900

Contrarian #1: Terry McLaurin $13,200

Contrarian #2: Diontae Johnson $14,100

Contrarian #3: JD Mckissic $7,800

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh:

Vegas: 43.5 Point total Steelers: –6.5

Weather: Mid-Upper 30’s, 10 MPH Wind

Vegas is telling us to expect a good deal of defense and with Washington’s play style, Pittsburgh’s defense, and questionable offensive players I’m not going to argue with them. With the expectation that Pittsburgh will control this game Benny Snell is my lean for the big chalk on the day but I think it will be close. For Snell, Ben Roethlisberger, all of the Steelers receivers, and even the Steelers defense to be within a couple of percentage points so going captain will be tricky on that side.

My receiver’s lean for Pittsburgh is Diontae Johnson just due to the target volume over the last few weeks, but if you feel a certain way about Claypool or Juju I won’t talk you out of it. Where I think the captain play will be most interesting is on the Washington side of the ball. Terry McLaurin is an absolute monster and he has been QB proof in his short career. He has seen no less that seven target in any game this season and if the script matches Vegas, I don’t see 10-12 targets being hard to reach.

JD Mckissic is one that I know I have to explain. If you give me the finger and go Antonio Gibson I won’t blame you. Pass catching backs have had a measure of success against the Steelers and Ron Rivera clearly favors JD in passing down situations. It also helps that Alex Smith has the lowest average depth of target in the league. In both games where he was playing from behind he targeted Mckissic 14 and 15 targets with 17.2 and 17.9 DraftKings points in each. If you think Washington will trail you should at least consider JD in one or two of your builds.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both defenses and both kickers are firmly in play with a 43.5 point total and Pittsburgh’s tendency to play down to their level of competition.

Washington: Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson, Cam Sims, Logan Thomas, Defense, Dontell Inman, Dustin Hopkins

Pittsburgh: Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Shuster, Eric Ebron, Defense, Matthew Wright, Ray Ray Mcloud (if using Steelers Defense)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs:

Before we get into captains we all know the usual suspects for the Chiefs so if I don’t get them all in here it’s just due to only using 5 captain picks. If you have a lean for another Chief go for it. It just doesn’t do me or you any good to just list all of them every showdown. I’m trying to get a little different so that you can hopefully take a GPP down. I need some Phillip Lindsay Clarification as well as news of

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes $19,800

Pivot: Drew Lock $13,800

Contrarian #1:Travis Kelce $16,200

Contrarian #2: LeVeon Bell $3,600 (If we see CEH limited or out)

Contrarian #3: Noah Fant $7,500

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs Notes:

Vegas: 51.5 Point total Chiefs: -13

Weather: Mid-Upper 30’s, light breeze

Most of us are expecting the same thing, the Chiefs to get up big and control the game. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are clearly great captain options so I’m not going too deep with KC. What we can do as far as a pivot goes is go with Drew Lock and what will likely be a 50 pass night for $6,000 less at half of the ownership. Lock is by no means a “good” QB right now but the garbage time could possibly be a full half so paring him with Noah Fant, Jerry Juedy, or Tim Patrick is a leverage position that I am going to make use of. I need to get some clarification on Clyde Edwards-Helair‘s status but given his illness (stomach virus) if the Chiefs get up big they may opt to not risk wearing him out which is steering me towards LeVeon Bell in a few captain spots. We all like to give Bell a hard time but he still looks like the same back that he has always been it is just the fact that he has been in bad situations or in the case of the Chiefs buried behind CEH. In the same way I thought CEH was a slate breaker in their last showdown I could very well see the same scenario with Bell tonight. I’m not really going to entertain a scenario where the Broncos get ahead when we are talking about script but if you were inclined to use a Broncos running back I would lean Melvin Gordon. For some reason people still talk about Lindsay being the receiving back because he’s small. He’s not, he never has been. He can not catch the ball and that goes back to his time playing for University of Colorado Boulder.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As per usual, kickers are in play as well as the Chiefs defense, Lock gets wild and the special teams is always a threat If you choose to use the Chiefs defense I’d recommend using Tyreek Hill over Kelce as captain because you will double dip on a return score. I know I have Tyreek down here but as I made clear. The big three are always captain viable I just chose Kelce for little salary savings.

Broncos: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Melvin Gordon, KJ Hamler, Brandon McManus, Royce Freeman( if Lindsay out or expected to be limited)

Chiefs: Tyreek Hill***(see above), Defense, Sammy Watkins, Harrison Butker, Darrell Williams (If CEH out), Demarcus Robinson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!