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Week 2 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Lions at Packers

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 2 NFL DFS Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (FD $16,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot: Davante Adams (FD $15,000, DK $17,700)

Contrarian #1: Aaron Jones (FD $12,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: Jared Goff (FD $14,500, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: T.J. Hockenson (FD $11,000, DK $14,400)

I have to believe that despite Davante Adams being the most expensive player on the slate and a poor week 1 performance from three-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, the Packers QB will be the chalk for showdown captain. The Lions secondary is now without Jeff Okudah (again) and there’s a lot of new faces on a team that in Week 1 only had to contend with Jimmy Garoppolo. Rodgers is poised for a bounceback game at home on prime time — his favorite time to shine. There’s probably enough value in the Lions secondary receiving options to warrant using Rodgers at captain and just finding ways to fit Adams and some bargain pieces.

Packers notes: Rostering Rodgers/Adams somewhere in your six slots is the priority here, and Randall Cobb ($3K captain/$2K flex) offers perhaps the best value among the other skills positions for the Packers. Marques Valdez-Scantling saw eight targets in Week 1, but I’m still more interested in Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan as the most important offensive weapons not named “Davante.” Tonyan hasn’t traditionally done as much work between the 20s and has done most of his eating in the red zone, but a new game plan for confusing a relatively weak nickel/LB corps means he could see a few extra check-down targets this week. I’d also expect the touches and targets for Jones to at least double what he saw in Week 1 (five carries, two targets), but the new Lions base defensive scheme could be vulnerable to a big day from Jones, since there’s just three down linemen, two outside linebackers and two off-ball, “inside” LBs — more of a 5-2 front with the two edge players standing up instead of having hands in the dirt. For that reason, we could see A.J. Dillon used more this week, but he only played 16 snaps in Week 1.

Lions notes: If we ignore the running games altogether, there’s a clear path to getting Jared Goff with T.J. Hockenson and a value WR along with Rodgers/Adams if we take a shot on Cobb at captain, but that’s more of a longshot build. With the injuries to Lions WRs Tyrell Williams (out, concussion) and Khalif Raymond (thigh, questionable) the smart move might be to eliminate the always risky Goff from our builds and focus on Hockenson along with cheap WRs Quintez Cephus (six targets in Week 1) and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (3-50-0 on four targets in his debut). D’Andre Swift is perhaps the most dynamic player in the Lions offense and was a target monster in Week 1` (8-65-1 on 11 targets to go along with 39 rushing yards), but he’s questionable despite being expected to suit up in the contest. Former Packer RB Jamaal Williams had solid Week 1 as well, finishing with 8-56-0 receiving on nine targets and racking up 54 rushing yards on just nine carries. If the Packers jump out to a big lead like the 49ers did in Week 1, we could see similar totals in the MNF game script.

Week 2 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which are both weak and don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 49-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Play too much Jared Goff. He’s not that good, and we know this.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Davante Adams
  3. T.J. Hockenson
  4. Aaron Jones
  5. D’Andre Swift
  6. Jared Goff
  7. Robert Tonyan
  8. Jamaal Williams
  9. Randall Cobb
  10. Quintez Cephus
  11. Amon-Ra St. Brown
  12. Marques Valdez-Scantling
  13. A.J. Dillon
  14. Packers DST
  15. Allen Lazard
  16. Mason Crosby
  17. Trinity Benson
  18. Austin Seibert
  19. Lions DST
  20. Marcedes Lewis
  21. Daniel Fells
  22. Kylin Hill

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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