Over the last ten years, golf one and done contests have continued to surge in popularity. It is easy to see why. One and done leagues are easy to understand, you are rarely ever out of the competition, and it provides a fun way to follow your golf season. Increasingly, these contests have seen the ability to play for real money and bigger prizes. This year, golf one and done competitions have a few factors to take into account when making your decisions. With the majority of competitions starting at next week’s Sony Open, it seemed the optimal time to compile your ultimate guide to the 2024 One and Done golf season!
Most readers have likely already played in a one and done before, but it is probably worthy a few lines to recap how these contests work. In a one and done competition, players will usually pick one golfer for each tournament during the season. Once a golfer has been selected, they are then unavailable to be selected again during the year. Hence, the name “one and done”. Players are rewarded with prize money earned by the golfer in the tournament. The player with the most accumulated money across the season is the winner.
Unlike other fantasy golf contests, you are rarely completely out of a one and done competition. One big win, even late in the season, can give you enough prize money to catapult you back into contention. It provides a fun way to stay engaged with golf throughout the season.
The first action you should take is learning the rules of your contest. You should obviously know at which tournament your contest begins. But, just as importantly, you need to be aware what is the last tournament when your competition ends. You would be astounded how many times I hear of OAD players left still holding an elite player because they thought they would use them in the Tour Championship, but their season ended at the BMW Championship. Formulate a plan with how you will approach the year, and you will already be ahead of many of your competitors.
Finally, for smaller One and Done golf leagues you can play safer as you will need less money accumulated to take out a top prize. The larger the league, the more risks and money you will need to earn over the season to win.
Once you know the general rules for your one and done, I highly recommend mapping out your season. Specifically, not all tournaments are built equally in terms of the prize pool available. Additionally, you don’t want to be left trying to fit 5 elite golfers into 4 tournaments at the end of the year. I’m not suggesting you should know exactly where you will play each golfer at the beginning of the season. But plot a rough plan of how you will approach the season.
Key to this are the signature events, majors, and playoffs. A typical season will consist of 31 tournaments (Sony Open until the BMW Championship, with Zurich Classic excluded). But not all events are built equal. The 7 signature events, The Players, the 4 majors, The Players, and the 2 playoff events account for 65% of the total money available from the One and Done golf season. Individual prizes are roughly double what they are in the other events. Pick the winner in a couple of these events and you are already on your way to a successful One and Done golf season!
Obviously, we are going to want to use our best golfers during these events. It wouldn’t make sense to burn a Rory McIlroy at the Valero Texas Open when your potential return is so much greater elsewhere. The signature events do have one positive: they are all no cut events, so you are guaranteed a payday.
Then there is the question of LIV Golf players. Unless a miraculous deal is finalised and they’re granted immediate access to the remainder of the PGA Tour season, they will only be available for selection in the 4 majors. Very few have guaranteed qualification, although they can still qualify for the US Open and The Open Championship.
Next, I have formed three lists of players. Firstly, elite stud players you will absolutely want to use in signature events, playoffs, or majors. These 6 golfers are the only golfers who average over +2 SG: Total over the field for the last 12 months.
Elite Studs
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
You can likely add Max Homa to that list, who was just under +2 SG: Total for the past year but was +2.23 SG: Total over the past 6 months.
The only other golfer to earn over +2 SG: Total for the last 12 months is, of course, Jon Rahm. He makes the next list of LIV Elite Studs. In my opinion, you want to use at least two of these in the majors (Jon Rahm plus Brooks Koepka) and probably three (Cam Smith).
LIV Elite Studs
Jon Rahm
Brooks Koepka
Cam Smith
Dustin Johnson
Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann?
Those first 5 golfers have guaranteed entry to all four majors, but I may also look to another option in Joaquin Niemann. However, he only currently has access to The Open Championship following his win in the Australian Open. He could still qualify for the US Open through normal qualification process.
Overall, this forms a strong base to begin planning your One and Done golf season.
Finally, there are the sub-elite golfers. These are solid picks who I more than likely want to play at some point during the One and Done golf season. I will possibly use some in the signature events, particularly at courses where they have good history or if they hit hot form during the season. Otherwise, they are solid plays in tournaments outside the signature events where they will often go off towards the top of betting markets.
Sub-Elite (ranked in order of preference)
You can find a full list of the 50 golfers with guaranteed signature event starts in 2024 here.
Certainly, this list is a lot more fluid. As you move further down that board, more questions will come into play such as injury concerns or regaining form. However, that will reveal itself as the season goes on. We can remain dynamic with these plays and slot them in later during the season, including any other golfers who inevitably emerge as the One and Done golf year unfolds.
Another factor in your decision making should be the course on offer each week. Of course, different golfers have various aspects of a game which are a strength for them. You would prefer not to use a bomber at a tight fiddly course where accuracy is at a premium, such as Sedgefield Country Club. Likewise, you wouldn’t to use a shorter hitter at a course like Quail Hollow, where long drivers of the golf ball have had a distinct advantage.
Additionally, when planning your One and Done golf season you want to consider course history. There are always a few new golf courses every season. Other courses have remained on the PGA Tour for quite some time. This has seen the rise of many course experts. Players like Sam Burns at the Valspar Championship or Webb Simpson at Sedgefield come to mind. Clearly, some golfers are going to find a course where they just feel comfortable or the tournament holds special meaning.
However, this does come with a word of caution. In an age where information and golf data is now readily available, many other One and Done golf managers are going to have the same idea. You want to play your position in the league and, usually, avoid any massive spikes in golfer ownership you see develop.
That segues nicely into a conversation on ownership. I have to give credit to my friend Rick Gehman for the inspiration to this segment. He put together this excellent video on One and Done golf player deployment and the data was astounding.
I found it amazing that Rory McIlroy had already been used by 50% of users by mid-March. Scottie Scheffler had been used by nearly 60% of player by The Masters! It raises a really good way to make yourself different. By keeping a few of your elite studs towards later in the season, you are creating leverage on your competitors.
Obviously, you could get unlucky and a high owned player ends up spiking a win for the masses. But you are nearly always better to avoid the chalk. The same applies in the regular PGA Tour stops. There will certainly be circumstances where a player like Russell Henley ends up the betting favourite, with a huge ownership percentage in a lower tier event where the fields are weaker. Again, you should probably avoid the chalk in such circumstances.
In larger leagues, you might want to consider some riskier plays at the beginning of the year. If both Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth look healthy, you could consider playing them at say the Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage for example. Playing some of the bigger names early who have either been injured or struggling for form comes with risks. But the majority of players will feel the same, wanting to save them until they feel a bit more certain of their status. Should a riskier but low-owned choice spike a win for you, you’ve set up your season nicely with your studs still in hand where others have already burned them.
Finally, you want to play your situation as the season develops. If you are front-running, you can play a bit safer. Take a risk adverse approach and let the pack chase you. Again, you don’t want to be playing the obvious mega-chalk. But you don’t need to roll the dice looking for some obscure option.
Conversely, if you find yourself significantly off the lead, you will need to take some risks. You’ll want to still save your studs until others have burned them. But you may wish to look for some alternative plays later in the season in the higher money signature events, deviating from your original plan. You would be hoping to get lucky, picking a winner that few others are on. Again, this is particularly true for larger contests with many other entries.
And, of course, we are talking about golf. Anything can happen! Players will get injured. Some will be badly out of form. New, unexpected talent will emerge and suddenly become popular must plays. Remaining dynamic and prepared to change your original plan is essential to adapting to the situation you face at the time.
This doesn’t supersede the golden rules though. Use all your studs; you don’t want to be left holding both Hovland and Scheffler in the last week of your contest. Make your picks every week; having a non-starter is criminal and obviously hinders your chances. And never give up; there are some huge purses to play for at the end of the season and anything can happen!
What follows next is a complete breakdown of every tournament this season.
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As we enter into an overview of the year ahead, I’ll reiterate that this should not be seen as the sole way to approach your One and Done golf season. Your individual strategy will depend on many different factors. I am also writing this on January 6th. So, if you plan on bookmarking this page and referring back to it throughout the year, take this into account as invariably the PGA Tour will develop and change.
I’ve broken down each course, giving a very brief outlook on the type of course and what style golfer may benefit. Then, I have included some potential players you may want to consider deploying at each event. Again, take this with a grain of salt. It remains unclear how many additional PGA Tour tournaments those who have qualified for the Signature events will end up playing.
Course: Waialae Country Club
Purse: $8.3m
Potential Players: Corey Conners, Justin Rose, Brian Harman
This narrow course is the polar opposite of the Plantation Course at Kapalua, host of The Sentry. Driving accuracy is at a premium here, with tree-lined fairways and very thick rough adding to the challenge. Winds are a defense here as well, with SG: ATG ranking heavily as a predictive factor. It is an advantage to have played the week prior at The Sentry, as is prior form here which ranks 2nd only to Augusta National in strength of correlation.
Course: Pete Dye Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course & La Quinta
Purse: $8.4m
Potential Players: Adam Hadwin, Cam Davis, Andrew Putnam, Tom Hoge
The first tournament of course rotation season. In this case, using three courses before finishing with an additional round at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. This is the tournament which Jon Rahm famously labelled as a “Piece of sh*t f*cking setup. Putting contest week”, before winning the event in 2023. Scoring is low and you’ll need to find a golfer who can reach close to -25 to -30 if they want to secure the win. As such, it tends to be a volatile event.
Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South and North Courses)
Purse: $9.0m
Potential Players: Wyndham Clark, Jason Day, Sungjae Im
Our second in the course rotation trifecta. Fortunately, in this case three rounds are played on the South Course with the North Course only played for one of the first two rounds prior to the cut. The North Course is substantially the easier of the two. This is a bomber heavy course and a strong driver of the golf ball is a great asset.
Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Russell Henley, Tom Kim, Max Homa
Our final course rotation tournament of three and our first signature event in the regular One and Done rota. PGA Tour were keen to have this as a signature event not just because of the iconic Pebble Beach course, but also the pro-am element and the opportunity to look after their sponsors. Again, three of the rounds will be at one course (Pebble Beach) with just the sole round at Spyglass Hill. Pebble Beach can’t be overpowered and sees a disproportionate number of shots from 100-150 yards as a result. Given some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour, alongside SG: APP you’ll need a sharp short-game here.
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Purse: $8.8m
Potential Players: Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley
I am intrigued to see what happens with the WM Phoenix Open this year. Colloquially known as the People’s Open, the event sees itself demoted to a regular season event and sandwiched between two signature events. Whether this results in a reduced quality of field and who takes this as a rest week remains to be seen. The course is a well-rounded test of a golfer’s game and has typically seen the cream rise to the top. It’ll be interesting to see how much of that crop shows up. If Scheffler is the only big name that returns looking for his three-peat he probably wins, although you should keep him in your stash for a bigger payday. Let others blow their ownership and look for greener pastures. With rather large greens at over 7,000 sq ft, don’t discount a solid putter here along with sharp iron play.
Course: Riviera Country Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay
Along with The Sentry host the Plantation course at Kapalua, this is one of the best form guides for Augusta National on Tour. Jon Rahm of course won both tournaments before slipping on the green jacket in 2023. You may want to jump on the future odds for the winner at The Masters as they will inevitable dive after this event. Part of that is down to the undulating nature of this course. You will rarely have a flat approach shot, and it is skill with your irons which will prove decisive.
Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Purse: $8.1m
Potential Players: Akshay Bhatia, Brandon Wu, Alex Smalley
This birdie-fest is the sole tropical course for the One and Done golf season. Paspalum greens are pretty polarizing, their slow pace not suiting all golfers and seeing some paspalum specialists developing. Brandon Wu is a key example, finishing 2nd and 3rd here and also holding a 3rd and 7th at the Puerto Rico Open. Driving distance is a big asset here, with the average yardage for par 4s and par 5s the longest on the PGA Tour averaging 495 yards.
Defending champion Tony Finau is likely to be heavily owned at this event in a very weak field. There will be few top players travelling South of the border. If Kurt Kitayama, Patrick Rodgers, or Beau Hossler end up starting they are worthy of consideration.
Course: PGA National
Purse: $9.0m
Potential Players: Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood
We begin the Florida swing with what was formerly known as the Honda Classic. This is a difficult course with a single figure winner common, especially if the weather plays a factor. It’s perhaps unsurprising this has been a strong predictor of success at The Open. 2023 Open runner-up Sepp Straka has an excellent record here, as does former Open champion Shane Lowry.
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Cam Young
Another signature event, and a tournament where Rory McIlroy is often deployed by One and Done golf managers. If you can avoid the temptation, you should have some leverage opportunities later in the season. This is a ball-strikers golf course, with both distance and accuracy positively correlated to success. Approach over 200 yards is also key, with the longest collection of par 3s of the regular PGA Tour courses.
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Purse: $25.0m
Potential Players: Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim
The single largest paycheck in the One and Done golf year. One of the highest correlations between driving accuracy and success of any tournament on the PGA Tour, it is easy to understand why there are such strong links between here and Wyndham Championship host Sedgefield Country Club. Scheffler is likely heavily owned, being the defending champion in the biggest purse of the season, but there are other great options available.
Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort
Purse: $8.4m
Potential Players: Sam Burns, Aaron Rai, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas
Many One and Done managers will simply revert to Sam Burns here, depending on whether he is playing decent golf at the time. Holding a record of 1-1-6 in his last three starts, it is easy to understand why. You should consider your position in your One and Done golf league when making that decision. The course greets players with some of the narrowest fairways on the PGA Tour, combined with incredibly thick rough and tree-lined fairways. This makes it one of the top 3 most difficult driving courses of the season. There is a disproportionate number of shots from over 200 yards, a reflection of golfers clubbing down to avoid trouble off the tee.
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Purse: $9.1m
Potential Players: Nicolai Hojgaard, Ryan Fox, Patrick Rodgers, Beau Hossler
This tournament has moved from the fall to the regular season, so it will be interesting to see if the course plays any different. We only have three years worth of data to go off here, but Total Driving looks to be a fairly decent predictor of success. Markedly, there are an unusual 5 par 3s on this course and a number of them are short. That makes this 7,432 yard par 70 course play even longer, with 5 par 4s over 490 yards and the 3 par 5s averaging a massive 596 yards each.
Course: TPC San Antonio
Purse: $9.2m
Potential Players: Sahith Theegala, Ludvig Aberg, Chris Kirk, Tyrrell Hatton
The PGA Tour reduce their carbon footprint just a smidge by remaining in Texas for another week, in a rare dose of common sense. The course plays shorter than what it says on the tin, with firm fairways seeing large runout from drives. The rough ranks as the least penal on the PGA Tour. Although the greens are large, they are multi-tiered meaning the actual target area is substantially reduced. Alongside approach, SG: ATG is a strong predictor of success. As the penultimate event to The Masters, it may attract some names who are seeking a warm-up before hitting Augusta National. Determining how focused those players actually are on winning this event over fine-tuning their game is a minefield.
Course: Augusta National
Purse: $18.0m
Potential Players: Cam Smith, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm
We reach the first major of the year and likely the first decision about which LIV Golf player we should deploy. I would hazard a guess that Jon Rahm is heavily deployed here as defending champion. You may be better to save him for the next major, which should also suit. Albeit, I’m not too worried about ownership on the other three obvious LIV golfers. The likes of Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, and Ludvig Aberg will also attract selection. In short, keep an eye on whether Cam Smith’s form improves throughout the year, with last year’s runner-up Brooks Koepka an option, and previous winner Dustin Johnson if you would like to get contrarian.
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton
The tour attempts to keep the attention of casual golf fans by placing a signature event directly after the most watched tournament in golf. The merits of this can be debated, but it is nice to shake off the hangover from the first major quickly. In contrast to last week, this short and narrow test is the near opposite of Augusta National. Therefore, the course produces some of the lowest driving distance numbers on tour. With very small greens a combination of driving accuracy, precise iron play, and short-game for the inevitable missed GIR is key here. Hopefully, a large percentage of One and Done golf managers have already used Jordan Spieth and you can select a player who has finished 1st and 2nd in his last two appearances here.
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Purse: $9.5m
Potential Players: Eric Cole, Justin Rose, Harris English
The tournament where K.H. Lee won back-to-back titles in 2021 and 2022, earning him the nickname “TPC Lee”. Jason Day then completed his own double in 2023, with some 13 years in between drinks. One unique aspect of the course is the zoysia grass fairways. This is relatively rare on the PGA Tour, only appearing at TPC Southwind and East Lake. Driver is not that important on this course. Someone like Eric Cole comes to mind, who is actually a surprisingly poor driver. Instead, we see a big uptick in long approach shots. 1/3rd of all approach shots are over 200 yards, with 2/3rd of approach shots are from over 150 yards.
Course: Quail Hollow Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Rory McIlroy, Min Woo Lee, Ludvig Aberg
Quail Hollow is a big boy golf course. Sitting at over 7,500 yards for a par 71, it is one of the longest tests on the PGA Tour. Driving distance is essential here, as seen by Wyndham Clark when winning for us at 80/1 in the lead-up to his U.S. Open victory. 75% of approach shots will be from over 150 yards. Putting from 5-15 feet is ranked 15th most difficult on the Tour, with putts from 15+ feet ranking 7th on tour. Hopefully, three-time champion Rory McIlroy has already been burned by a large number of managers and you can deploy him at a track he loves.
Course: Valhalla Golf Club
Purse: $17.5m
Potential Players: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson
The majors return to Valhalla 10 years after Rory McIlroy triumphed here in 2014. If you didn’t use him the preceding week at the Wells Fargo Championship, you can deploy him here. In fact, that may preferable with invariably even more players having used him. However, this is again another rare opportunity to deploy one of the LIV Golf players. Being a Nicklaus design, parallels might be drawn to Muirfield, where Jon Rahm is a past champion. He would’ve won back-to-back there had it not been for the unfortunate withdrawal after three rounds with COVID when leading by 6.
Course: Colonial Country Club
Purse: $9.1m
Potential Players: Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Russell Henley
If Jordan Spieth hasn’t been used yet or shown continued struggles with the wrist injury, One and Done golf managers might just auto-click his name here. It is perhaps unsurprising then that the course shares links with Harbour Town, as Spieth has won on both courses. Each is a fiddly, positional course where accuracy off the tee between overhanging branches and a sharp short game is required.
Course: Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Purse: $9.4m
Potential Players: Brian Harman, Brendon Todd, Andrew Putnam, Adam Hadwin
The RBC Canadian Open returns to Hamilton Golf & Country Club, which most recently hosted this event in 2019. Outside leader Rory McIlroy, the leaderboard was dotted with accurate drivers. 7 of the top 10 on the leaderboard finished in the top 20 of driving accuracy for the week. Additionally, 8 of the Top 10 that week were in the top 10 for SG: Putting at the tournament. Find the fairway and make your putts looks to be the most reliable pathway to success.
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay
The Memorial kicks-off a big run off three large purses on the tour. In fact, 37% of the total money on offer will be awarded in the next 11 weeks (even more if your contest includes the Tour Championship). Another reminder why you should never give up on your One and Done golf contest right until the end of the year! Accuracy is more important than distance here, as is excellent approach play, and an aptitude for putting on bentgrass.
Course: Pinehurst No. 2
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, Jon Rahm
The penultimate major of the year. We return to a venue where Kaymer trounced the field in 2014, fellow Kiwi Michael Campbell held off Tiger Woods in 2005, and Payne Stewart won in 1999. This course is a demon, typically delivering an incredibly tight affair and very high scoring. In fact, only three golfers have played this course under-par in three renditions. Sounds like the kind of course where the relentless attitude of Koepka could be beneficial, or the hot putter of Cam Smith could keep him in contention.
Course: TPC River Highlands
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Russell Henley, Tom Kim, Brian Harman
A big three weeks concludes at the Travelers, again strategically placed by the PGA Tour in the hope of keeping the armchair golf fans engaged. Driving accuracy rules king at TPC River Highlands, as highlighted by Brian Harman and Zac Blair just behind Keegan Bradley last time out. We had unluckily selected Zac Blair the prior tournament at 1000/1 before he withdrew with injury, only to return here with that runner-up finish. The course requires a sharp wedge game, with a disproportionate number of shots under 150 yards. Other Pete Dye courses are a good guide here, with TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield Country Club both offering accuracy heavy tests.
Course: Detroit Golf Club
Purse: $9.2m
Potential Players: Adam Scott, Taylor Moore, Ryan Fox, Nicolai Hojgaard
Off the back of those three big tournaments, don’t be surprised to see many of the best golfers give this one a miss. Consequently, you could see a lot of the top of the betting board available for selection. Basically, you are likely best to keep an eye on projected use for this week and do the opposite. More than 50% of all approach shots will occur between 50-150 yards. This is key given shots on longer par 3s and the par 5s will naturally require a longer approach shot. I put Nicolai Hojgaard up at 80/1 here in 2023, although I doubt you will see that number this time around.
Course: TPC Deere Run
Purse: $7.8m
Potential Players: Ryan Fox, Chris Kirk, Russell Henley, Lucas Glover
This tournament can prove quite volatile and could be renamed as the “John Deere wedge putter birdie-fest”. The tournament has required a score better than 20-under in 11 of the last 14 editions. The other three were won at -18 or -19 with high winds in at least one round. A huge number of approach shots will fall between 100-150 yards. Driving accuracy is helpful not because the course is overly narrow, but because you simply must give yourself as many birdie looks within 10 feet as possible. That’s easier to achieve from the short stuff.
Course: The Renaissance Club
Purse: $9.0m
Potential Players: Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Joaquin Niemann?
We make our way to the spiritual home of golf and a foray into links golf. Overall, links golf requires a unique set of skills and those with that experience hold an edge. This event is commingled with the DP World Tour, allowing an opportunity to play some golfers who might not have an opportunity to during other tournaments. I do wonder whether we might see Joaquin Niemann here, who managed to play some DP World Tour events not being a former member and receiving a sponsor exemption. Robert MacIntyre is likely a very popular selection and should probably be avoided, following a remarkable tournament last year where Rory McIlroy snatched victory in near impossible circumstances.
Course: Royal Troon
Purse: $16.5m
Potential Players: Joaquin Niemann, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Tommy Fleetwood
The final chance to snag a major in 2024, The Open Championship returns to Royal Troon. This will be it’s 10th time hosting, with the most recent of those being in 2016. Many will see Tyrrell Hatton and Rory McIlroy finishing in 5th placed here that year. As a result, read that in the context that this was an epic major between Henrik Stenson (-20) and Phil Mickelson (-17). Stenson finished 15 strokes ahead of Hatton and McIlroy, with their closer competitor being J.B. Holmes in 3rd (-6). If Niemann is in reasonable form, you should consider playing him here. His low ball-flight with irons has always looked suited for links golf if the winds blow.
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Purse: $8.3m
Potential Players: Tony Finau, Ryan Fox, Adrian Meronk
With players travelling back from The Open Championship, expect many who played the week prior to be resting. If not, jet-lag can always be a factor. Particularly if they have contended the week prior, I would avoid any such player this week. The course is long enough at 7,431 yards and par 71. Rough is fairly non-existent, but water on 15 of the 18 holes keeps golfers honest. You can perhaps rely on Tony Finau being used by other players by this point, arriving at a course where he has never finished worse than 28th in 5 looks with form of 23-3-28-1-7.
Course: Sedgefield Country Club
Purse: $7.9m
Potential Players: Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Russell Henley
A week’s break as the golfers head to the Olympic Games, played at Le Golf National. Most of the One and Done golf contests will miss that event, as there is no prize purse given putting a price on a gold medal is rather difficult.
The PGA Tour returns at the Wyndham Championship, which is always an exciting event as the last chance saloon to make the playoffs. As mentioned in The Players preview, this course and TPC Sawgrass share one of the strongest correlations you will see between two golf courses all season. Those who have not used Tom Kim likely deploy him here (should he play), so monitor usage and divert to golfers like Sungjae Im or Russell Henley. Webb Simpson likely attracts attention given his absurd course history here, at a course he loves so much he named his daughter after a hotel chain.
Course: TPC Southwind
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton, Collin Morikawa
The first playoff event and hopefully you find yourself having ridden a little luck and good planning to be in contention. TPC Southwind has hosted some form of tournament since 1989. First as the FedEx St Jude Classic, then the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational, before becoming the FedEx St Jude Championship. Make sure you use course history over tournament history to have access to the most data possible.
Again, those rare zoysia grass fairways show up here. Overall, the course is a tricky test with a winning score in the low to mid teens common. Water is heavily involved on 11 holes and the rough is pretty gnarly. Driving distance is not really a factor, but accuracy is an asset as is sharp approach play. 78% of all approach shots occur between 100-200 yards here.
Course: Castle Pines Golf Club
Purse: $20.0m
Potential Players: Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Aberg, Sungjae Im
The 2nd playoff event sees a reduction to the last 50 players and a return to Castle Pines, last sighted on the PGA Tour for The International tournament from 1986-2006. Unfortunately, that was before the age of big data and strokes gained was not recorded. Other Nicklaus designs like Muirfield could be a useful guide. On paper, the course looks a long test but bear in mind this is played at altitude in Colorado.
Course: East Lake Golf Club
Purse: TBC
Potential Players: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland
Finally, if your One and Done contest includes the Tour Championship some extra strategy is required. Controversially, the Tour Championship is handicapped including starting strokes based on the number of FedEx Cup points that players have earned throughout the year. I understand the appeal in having the person who lifts the trophy also being the one who wins the FedEx Cup. However, the DP World Tour handle this just fine and golf fans are smart enough to be able to handle concurrent leaderboards.
Basically, with the starting strokes you may be best to hold back an elite stud to deploy here. Obviously, the vast majority of players will have used them by this point and you are giving yourself a huge advantage. Scottie Scheffler makes the most sense as barring injury he should be in the top 4 players and, therefore, have one of the lower starting scores. However, Rory McIlroy does have an excellent record at East Lake. Monitor how the season develops and, having checked whether your contest includes this tournament, keep back an elite player who is highly likely to finish towards the top of the FedEx Cup leaderboard entering this event.
And thus ends another PGA Tour season, and a 6,500 word article. I hope you’ve enjoyed it, that you have a very successful One and Done golf year, and a big thank you again for all your support for DeepDiveGolf.
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Patrick Cantlay (DK $13,400) – It’s going to be hard to pay the obnoxious price for the guy starting off 10 strokes under par, but the performance of Cantlay’s driver and putter in that epic playoff victory shows that he’s really in a good place (with a two shot lead over the heading into the Tour Championship. I have more interest in the other guys but will find a way to fit him into 2/10 GPPs.
Jon Rahm (DK $13,000) – After a hot start at Caves Valley, Rahm seemed to get a bit distracted and annoyed and faded down the stretch, finishing in a share of ninth place after shooting a two-under 70 in the final round of the BMW Championship. He’s only four back of the lead heading into the Tour Championship, but he’s awfully expensive, so he almost has to win to justify the price. I’ll use him in 2/10 GPPs.
Tony Finau (DK $11,800) – Finau already has a one stroke lead on Rahm and sits just three back after a blistering final round 63 that included birdies on five of his final six holes – the lowest round of the day by two shots. His confidence and putting is at an all-time high and those are traditionally the only things that have kept him from the elite tier of PGA Tour golfers.
Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Justin Thomas (GPP)
Dustin Johnson (DK $10,700) – I’ve got to hand it to Steven Polardi (AKA Sicily Kid) with his DJ pick last week, since I was unconvinced he had his driver figured out. Johnson’s 27 birdies were the second most in the field for the week, and East Lake, while difficult, has been one of his favorite venues. DJ also ranked fourth in SG: OTT last week and seventh in SG: Putting, so he’s got a shot at defending his title this week.
Rory McIlroy (DK 9,300) – Rory is just way too cheap given how well he’s been striking it (he ranked second in SG: OTT and fourth in SG: T2G last week). At this price he really only needs to sneak into the Top 5 for the week, and he’s only four strokes off of that slot to start the tournament. He’s a horse for the East Lake course and will be in my core for cash and single-entry GPP.
Xander Schauffele (DK 8,900) – Schauffele’s in a similar position to Rory (starting at -2) and is even $400 cheaper. Sia points out in the Initial Picks article that Xander’s true score in last year’s event was -15, and his solid course history (and track record in no-cut events) means he’s an excellent (but likely popular) value play this week.
Viktor Hovland $8,000) – Hovland immediately stuck out to me as a guy who we routinely look to in cash builds for his consistency, and even if that hasn’t ben there of late (largely due to a poor putter), the change of venue and immediacy of the Tour Championship should help him exorcise some of those demons and finish in the Top 10.
Also consider: Cameron Smith (GPP), Harris English, Sam Burns (GPP)
Brooks Koepka (DK $7,800) – Something has been off about Koepka for a while now, but he made 21 birdies last week despite some poor putting and we know he usually saves his most epic performances for high profile events. He may not have a great shot at winning, but he’s in the same starting position as McIlroy and Schauffele and comes at a severely discounted price.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $6,800) – As well as he hit the ball on approach last week, I could see Scheffler getting his driver straightened out and come out firing with a 65 or 66 and cutting the gap to five strokes of the lead after Day 1. He’s a sneaky play at this price and will be in my single-entry core.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $6,400) – We know that Deki can make birdies in bunches when he’s rolling it good, since his ball striking remains elite on the PGA Tour. The reigning Master champ is coming off a disappointing week at Caves Valley, but he’s bound to popular at this price.
Daniel Berger (DK $5,800) – Berger will garner a ton of ownership and makes a lot of sense as a starting value piece for cash game builds, especially considering he finds a way to sneak into the Top 15 at East Lake almost every year. My GPP ownership will be predicate don where the field lands.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $5,600) – Niemann started off slowly last week but came alive with 15 birdies over his last two rounds to sneak into the Top 30. The price is way too low and he’ll be in my core of GPP value plays, possibly making the final cut for my single-entry builds.
Also consider: Sungjae Im, Jason Kokrak, Erik van Rooyen
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Jon Rahm (DK $11,700) – He’s No. 1 on my mixed model and is the clear top dog and betting favorite, despite the final few holes at the Northern Trust that saw him slide into solo third place. That finish was good enough for his fourth straight top 10 and 12th of 2021. No reason to move away from him this week other than the possibility he’s carrying some frustration into the BMW.
Xander Schauffele (DK $11,100) – I like the idea of Xander getting a no-cut event on the heels of a weird week that saw him crack 70 only once – a second-round 62 that was a very short-lived tie for the course record. He’s the best option over $10K – albeit a pretty expensive one – that isn’t named Rahm.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,600) – No more discounts for JT, but I love him in GPPs, where his T2G game and ability to make birdies could help him rise to the occasion. He made 66 of 68 putts inside 10 feet last week, but never seemed to follow up his opening round 63 with lights-out play. Perhaps he’s ready to do that in the second week of the playoffs, when the stakes are a little higher.
Tony Finau (DK $9,800) – I joked last week (and so did the Breakdown crew) about how “he’s not much of a threat to win,” but could be a great to help you win a GPP. Well, he won the damn thing – and that confidence boost is just what’s been holding him back in final rounds over the past few years. There’s no way I’m fading him after that gutsy performance.
Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Cameron Smith
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,300) – His distance and ability tot make putts seem tailored for this particular venue, and he shows up as second overall in my mixed model. While his inconsistency and preponderance to make bad decisions – and stupid bogeys – reared their ugly heads at Liberty National, he could dominate at Caves Valley, a venue where power and T2G precision are required. And I love the discount.
Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – We mentioned last week that he prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, and that he’s third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021. Perhaps this week he can put it all together and climb up the leaderboards if a few more putts go down early. A great GPP play with Top 3 upside.
Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – A few days after a broken putter self-sabotaged his final round and tanked a lot of the WinDaily readership’s lineups, we should probably go right back to the ell with Hovland, who’s a T2G monster and normally seems pretty even-keeled on the golf course. With no real course history to look at, he doesn’t lose any advantage that more experienced tour veterans players would normally have.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,900) – Scheffler seems almost mispriced considering his upside and the way he checks all the boxes this week at Caves Valley. He’s sixth overall on my model and will be in all my single-entry GPP builds and up to 40 or 50 percent of my lineups. I love his chances to get a win here. Go get some exposure to the tall 25-year-old shining star with the great T2G game.
Corey Conners (DK $8,600) – The Canadian ball-striking sensation checks in at 15thoverall in my rankings, his putting woes and weak Driving Distance rankings the only things holding him back from the top 10. I’ll be a little more careful with him this week, maybe limiting my GPP ownership and using him in some crafty cash builds.
Sam Burns (DK $8,300) – Last week we didn’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists, and while he didn’t do enough to help take down the large-field GPPs, he was T11 after three rounds at Liberty National and I love him again for that type of tournament this week. The T2G numbers aren’t excellent, but he’s got a bit of the Cameron Smith ability to bang it out there and clean things up by capitalizing on Par 5s and making a few more birdies than everybody else. He and Smith are actually right next to each other at Nos. 28 and 29 in my mixed model.
Paul Casey (DK $8,200) – Casey seems like the cash game play to Burns’ GPP analog, but I like him everywhere this week in a no-cut event at this discount price. The nicest guy on tour has the chops to live in the elite tier with the big boys in just about any tournament, and his proximity on approaches 200+ yards is one stat I really like.
Sungjae Im (DK $8,000) – I’m including Im here based on the detailed Breakdown that Sia, Joel and Spencer gave us this week – one of the things that got me interested in Finau last week. Im showed up 25th I my mixed model and while he has some momentum after a scrappy top 20, I was kind of on the fence until they touted him. The price is excellent and the upside is there on this golf course, where his T2G skills are at a premium.
Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – Still a great price on Lowry! We talked about his top 5 upside last week and he was right there until a less-than-stellar back nine. The Irishman ranked sixth in SG: T2G for the week at Liberty National and should be priced well over $8K. Take advantage of that disrespect by rostering him in 25-30% (or more) of your lineups.
Keegan Bradley (DK $7,700) – He cracked the PGA Tour’s BMW Top 20 Power Rankings this week, which always provides a nice little glimpse of what could be some the chalkier PGA DFS plays for the week, but Sia really likes him and I’m intrigued by his excellent ball-striking and ability to hit good drives that aren’t that far back from the big boys.
Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Daniel Berger, Abraham Ancer, Webb Simpson Joaquin Niemann, Jason Kokrak (GPP)
Cameron Tringale (DK $7,500) – Spencer likes Tringale this week and while I have harder time getting him right, it’s a fine time to go back to the well considering the veteran’s solid play over the past 36 rounds. I don’t love him most weeks, but he’s been consistent over the past four events (T14-T-26-T16 and T21 last week at Liberty National) and he can go really low some days.
Cameron Champ (DK $7,300) – Champ’s game has been rounding into better form and he’s exorcised some of the putting and short-game demons that plague his power-forward game. He’s gotten it done since a T11 at the John Deere Classic and his win at the 3M Open, which he capped with a bogey-free final round 66. Steer clear in cash games, but get some exposure in GPPs.
Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,100) – Vegas is my favorite play in the low-$7K range because of his distance, OTT numbers and T2G metrics. In fact, he’s No. 13 in my model and the only $7K player in my top 15. I’ll be using him in my single-entry builds and a lot of GPPs. Sure, he might get chalky if we’re all sticking to our models and playing the optimals, but this is a truly great spot for him, especially with no cut and guaranteed four cracks at this gettable golf course.
Maverick McNealy (DK $7,000) – We said last week that he really likes long golf courses and he ended up as both Sia’s Secret Weapon (SW) and my Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB), two low-ownership special Discord-exclusive perks that we divulge on Wednesday night for our premium subscribers. The T2G numbers are there and I think he’ll benefit from the smooth, fast Bentgrass greens this week as well.
Cameron Davis (DK $6,900) – Davis is only No. 32 in my mixed model, but I like the fact that he can plop one into the water, hit a rock and ricochet off a few things in the grandstands before landing 10 feet from the hole for an eventual eagle. Seriously – I like him in a no-cut event where he’ll have some leeway to spray it a bit and get back to the business of making birdies, where he’s eight in the field in BoB Gained.
Stewart Cink (DK $6,600) – Cink might end up being my BBB if his ownership is low enough, because no-cut events make it almost impossible to find non-chalky value under $7K and less than 5% ownership. So maybe no BBB this week, but I’ll have shares of Cink for his length off the tee and “veteran tour grinder” makeup. But he’ll be well under 10% for my overall exposure.
More value golfers to consider: Harold Varner, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Branden Grace, Marc Leishman (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP)
Keith Mitchell (DK $6,500) – We can load up on long hitters like Mitchell a bit more this week, but I suspect he’ll be popular after his epically clutch finish at Liberty National to make the top 70. Plenty to like about his game heading into a venue that requires length OTT.
Ryan Palmer (DK $6,400) – Palmer is long enough, and he could fly under-the-radar this week, so I’ll be getting 10-15% exposure in my large-field GPPs. Perfect last piece for medium stars-and-scrubs builds. Maybe this is the week he surprises and sneaks into the top 15.
Patton Kizzire (DK $6,200) – Kizzire is a little riskier but benefits from the no-cut format and the perks of DK scoring, where birdies and eagles (and streaks) are king. I worry about his ability to find fairways and greens, but there’s upside in his power-and-putting game.
Hudson Swafford (DK $6,000) – The super-risky Swafford only makes sense as a last piece on extreme stars-and-scrubs, but the DK scoring rules and guaranteed four rounds are his friend this week. We know he’s a dynamic player who can get really hot, go low and win tournaments when they are ripe for scoring.
Additional GPP punts: Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Wise, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge
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Jon Rahm (DK $11,500) – The No. 1 player in the world hasn’t played much lately since he was forced to withdraw from the Olympics after another positive COVID test. But his win at the U.S. Open and T3 at Royal St. George’s are proof positive he’s the frontrunner in the playoffs, and his complete T2G game and masterful short game combine to check all the boxes here. With pricing up, I like him best for GPP, but if you can find a cash lineup with him that you like, I wouldn’t blow it up.
Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000) – According to the PGA Tour stats, DJ was 23.53 total strokes better than the field average last year at TPC Boston when he ran away with the Northern Trust at -30. It was the third time he had gained 20 or more strokes en route to victory, and the change of venue shouldn’t hurt his game. He’s eighth in this field at Proximity from approaches 200+ yards over his last 36 rounds, he putts better on Bentgrass, and he makes for a great GPP play this week.
Jordan Spieth (DK $10,800) – Only a handful of players have been better at the 450-500 yard Par 4s over the past 36 rounds (solid GPP options Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy are a couple of them), and none of them can putt like Spieth can. Normally I wouldn’t look Spieth’s way for a cash game build in a field this good, but Sia really sung his praises in the excellent WinDaily Breakdown video, and Jordan has had such a great 2021 that I think I’m using him in cash and single entry as well as GPP.
Justin Thomas (DK $9,800) – JT hasn’t put it all together in a while (his last win was at the Players and he had lackluster finishes in the most recent majors) but he’s shown an affinity for playoff golf in the past and he’s tops in the field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards in length. He was T12 here in 2019 and this is a good spot to jump back on the JT wagon in GPPs.
Also consider: Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Bryson DeChambeau (Cash), Viktor Hovland
Abraham Ancer (DK $9,400) – The freshly minted PGA Tour winner (WGC-FedEx St. Jude) was runner-up of this event at Liberty National in 2019, and he’s got to be brimming with confidence after the huge breakthrough in Memphis at TPC Southwind. Ancer is fourth overall in my mixed model and I’ll have exposure in my GPPs despite the inflated price this week.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,300) – Scheffler could be described as a decent putter, and that’s probably the weakest part of his game these days. He’s posted top 15 finishes in six of his last eight events and he thrives on long golf courses like this. There’s a bunch of golfers to like in this price range, but Scottie could be the sneakiest once again.
Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – While I have an aversion to Cantlay in PGS DFS and he had a really rough stretch earlier this year, there’s no denying that he’s played much better golf since the PGA Championship, when he finished T23 and won in his next start at the Memorial. He prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, is third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021 and he finished T12 here in 2019.
Harris English (DK $8,800) – English has been stellar over the past three months, winning the Travelers at TPC River Highlands, finishing solo third at the U.S. Open, and posting top 15s in five of his last seven tournaments. He’s coming off a solo fourth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and I can’t find a reason to dislike him at Liberty National, even if he ends up at a really popular play.
Patrick Reed (DK $8,600) – Reed won here in 2019, and in true Captain America form went 3-1-1 when the Presidents Cup was played at this venue in 2017. He missed the cut at the Open Championship and has had some trouble keeping the ball in the fairway lately, but he’s a brilliant playoff competitor and a great GPP pivot from the more popular players in this price range.
Adam Scott (DK $8,400) – Scott missed an easy birdie putt and lost in that epic six-man playoff a week ago after firing a five-under 65 in the final round of the Wyndham Championship, but his ascent up the FedEx cup standings was impressive enough for lots of golf writers to pick him to win this week. He has course history behind him, with a fifth-place finish in 2019 and a win in 2013.
Tony Finau (DK $8,200) – I’ve been burned many times by Finau but I’m adding him to my player pool based on Joel Schreck and Spencer Aguiar’s recommendation in the Breakdown. A closer look at his numbers shows he’s good at avoiding three-putts and his SG ARG numbers have improved. He’s not much of a threat to win, but he could be that value guy who finishes top 10 and helps you secure a GPP win.
Sam Burns (DK $8,000) – I haven’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists this week, but he’s showing up in my mixed model and he’s coming off a blistering 64 in the final round at TPC Southwind that got him int a playoff with Ancer. He’s awesome off the tee, can get really hot with the putter, and the fact that nobody’s talking about him make me love him for large-field GPPs.
Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7.800) – Hatton will be a lot chalkier than Burns, but the price is way too low for what he gives you on courses this length. He’s sprinkled in some bad performances with a few top 20s, and he’s No. 17 on my mixed model, in large part due to how well he handles the 200+ approaches and A-4 Bentgrass. He’s a solid option in all formats.
Jason Kokrak (DK $7,700) – I had lots of Kokrak last week when he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship, but there wasn’t anything on the line then and I’m going back to the well this week with some exposure in GPPs. I don’t want to be one week off and have no shares, but I’m not going overboard.
Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash), Webb Simpson, Paul Casey (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, Ian Poulter, Russell Henley
Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – What a great price on Lowry! The 2019 Open champ is 20th overall in my mixed model and checks most if not all of the boxes in our focus stat categories this week. The form is good, he’s solid on all types of golf courses, and he’s got top 5 upside.
Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – I’ve been overconfident with Tringale a few times in PGA DFS, but I really like mixing in a few shares of him this week in GPPs based on where he finishes in my mixed model (ninth overall) and his solid numbers on longer approaches.
Seamus Power (DK $7,000) – Power will likely garner some ownership at this price, so if you’re getting skittish you can pivot elsewhere in GPPs – you can follow Sia’s lead and work in a guy like Charley Hoffman. But Power has been playing much better golf lately and works as a low-cost option.
Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – He really likes long golf coursesand was one of the first names I noticed under $7K with good SG: T2G numbers in his last 14 rounds. His SG: APP numbers leave a bit to be desired, but he’s really good off the tee and he can make some long putts.
Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,900) – Schwartzel fares well in my model (No. 33 overall) and seems to step up his game in stiffer competition. He also overperforms on long courses and should fare well at Liberty National, as the overall layout seems to favor his game.
C.T. Pan (DK $6,600) – I’ve seen some folks throw out Aaron Wise as another golfer with this price to consider, but if I’m leaning contrarian here, I’d do it with a Bronze medalist who’s coming off four rounds in the 60s. Pan is a sneaky contrarian play on longer courses and I like his chances to make the cut and spike a Top 25.
More value golfers to consider: Kevin Streelman, Bubba Watson (GPP), Jason Day (GPP), Max Homa, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Talor Gooch, Brendan Todd, Chris Kirk, Pat Perez, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Aaron Wise (GPP)
Matt Wallace (DK $6,500) – He checks a few important boxes this week (450-500 yard Par 4s and overall performance on long courses) and he’s solid around the greens and in wind. Wallace almost cracks the Top 20 in my mixed model this week so I’ll be mixing him into two or three GPPS in my 20 max builds.
Luke List (DK $6,400) – I’m always drawn to List when he’s cheap, but he’s strictly GPP only because he can implode on the greens. He’s scary to roster, so keep your ownership reasonably low (under 10%).
Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – Sia’s boy Hammerin’ Hank has a decent overall game and is a good ball striker. He offers plenty of value and should be a staple of stars-and-scrubs builds.
Additional GPP punts: K.H. Lee, Dylan Frittelli, Chez Reavie, Matt Kuchar, Doug Ghim, Harry Higgs
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Collin Morikawa (DK $11,000) – I’ll chalk up last week’s podium no-show to a bad putting week and the leveled playing field of a gettable Olympic course. This week, he’s on faster putting surfaces that seem to help better ball strikers and guys who flourish at majors, and he’ll rely on his game’s all-around brilliance over four days to contend for a WGC title. In this week’s must-see breakdown, Joel talks a little bit about how to pick your top-tier PGA DFS guys and how this is a week where the cream will rise to the top – favoring players like Morikawa.
Brooks Koepka (DK $10,600) – Koepka is one of a few golfers who play well at TPC Southwind and could walk away with the trophy this week, so we’ll have to mix in some shares of him in GPPs. I’m never too keen on using him in cash games, but this could be the week that I deploy him there and in a small- and large-field single-entry GPP contests banking on a top 5 finish – something he’s done a lot here. He’s already notched a win (2019), a T2 (2020) and a T2 in 2016 before TPC Southwind was a WGC event – and his form is solid with T4-T5-T6 in his last three tournaments.
Dustin Johnson (DK $10,200) – With lots of ownership going to Koepka, DJ makes for a cheaper pivot in GPPs and certainly has the right skill set to get it done at TPC Southwind. My usual worries about putting are alleviated in the switch to the faster Bermuda greens, since it’s a little easier for him to compete with the better, more aggressive putters when he doesn’t have to worry about slamming in ten-footers.
Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – Like DJ, he’s a course horse and a fan of these putting surfaces, which – let’s be honest – has been the most glaring issue with JT’s game over the past few tournaments. Both he and JT are guys who like to get the line right and give it a good roll, and that’s rewarded here – as opposed to the bumps and bounces of Bentgrass and “pop-it-in” Poa. He’s another bargain PGA DFS GPP pivot given his upside, though there’s moderate risk if he doesn’t see many putts go in in the first two days.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,600) – Louis is on quite the heater, notching four second-place finishes in his last eight starts worldwide, including a solo second at the U.S. Open and T2 at the PGA Championship. He also finished T3 at the Open Championship and he likes this course – with T20-T6 in his two trips to Memphis. He’s a solid putter on any surface and this may be the best he’s hit the ball in his celebrated career.
Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Viktor Hovland (cash)
Daniel Berger (DK $9,200) – Berger has taken advantage of this venue in his four appearances at TPC Southwind, winning the FedEx St. Jude Classic twice and sharing runner-up honors in the WGC last year. He’s among the better PGA DFS values in the field when we consider form, course history and his superiority in target golf. Berger is a solid play in all formats and has winning upside despite the insanely strong field.
Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $8,800) – I’ll be rooting hard for Matty Fitz to get his first PGA Tour victory this week, and this golf course is a good place for that to happen. The English standout seems to thrive at this venue and on courses with similarly small Bermuda greens. With four guaranteed days for him to get hot and make some birdies, he should climb the leaderboard and be in contention come Sunday.
Webb Simpson (DK $8,500) – We have to like this price point for Simpson, who has struggled in 2021 but should benefit from a no-cut event on a Bermuda greens and a recent T19 at the Open Championship. He finished second here in 2019 and T12 in 2020, so it’s as good a place as any for him to get back in the swing of things.
Abraham Ancer (DK $8,300) – Ancer could be downright dangerous this week, as he finished T14 at the Olympics and has logged six top 10s among 15 official top 25s this season. He also plays well at WGC events, notching top 20s in his last six appearances in dating back to the 2019 WGC Match Play. I love getting him for all four rounds and seeing just how hot he can get with his pin-seeking approaches.
Corey Conners (DK $8,100) – Conners isn’t the best putter in the world and there’s always the risk of three-jacks on greens this fast – but he undoubtedly has the T2G chops to avoid the ubiquitous water trouble that threatens both tee balls and approach shot at TPC Southwind. I’d consider him a decent cog in balanced PGA DFS GPP builds but a longshot to win.
Tommy Fleetwood (DK $8,000) – His ball-striking may still be along way from the days when he earned the “Fairway Jesus” sobriquet, but his T16 finish among some excellent competitors at the Olympics and fondness for the switch to Bermuda could mean good things for him in Memphis this week. I’m nowhere near “all-in” status with Tommy, but a low score on one of the first couple days could help propel him to a top 10 finish this week, so I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.
Will Zalatoris (DK $7,900) – Zalatoris is a relatively high-risk GPP wildcard this week, since there’s really no telling if his back is okay after the withdrawal at the Open Championship, and he hasn’t played this course before. Regardless, he’s a talented ball striker and he’s got four days (if his body holds up) to navigate the hazards and hard-to-hit greens at TPC Southwind. I’d steer clear in cash games and single-entry, but ownership should be low and I’m fine using him in 5-10% of GPPs.
Sungjae Im (DK $7,700) – I love Sungjae on Bermuda greens and I’m not deterred by the hectic schedule that had him competing for a medal in Tokyo just last week. He could be a super sneaky GPP play and possibly a solid staple for single-entry if you’re buying into his upside at this affordable price.
Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry, Cameron Smith (GPP), Harris English
Brian Harman (DK $7,500) – Harman had been getting it done prior to his WD (undisclosed) at the 3M Open after tying for 19th at the Open Championship, earning top 20 finishes in four of his last five starts dating back to the Charles Schwab Challenge. Other than a missed cut at the PGA, his game has flourished in major championships and the tougher-field events in 2021.
Sergio Garcia (DK $7,300) – I like having Sergio on Bermuda for four days, since he’s got the ball-striking prowess to excel at TPC Southwind and avoid some of the water than could swallow up less experienced players. Since a T20 at Colonial, he’s notched four straight top 20s and finished T25 at the 3M Open, so he’s worth a look in all formats at this bargain price.
Billy Horschel (DK $7,100) –It’s been a spell since I’ve considered Horschel, probably because he has only played four tournaments since the start of June, and he wasn’t a PGA DFS factor in any of them (67th at the Memorial, a disappointing MC at U.S. Open, T54 at Scottish Open and T53 at Royal St. George’s). TPC Southwind, on the other hand, favors his game and has historically ben a get-right spot for the native Floridian, who favors Bermuda over the surfaces we’ve seen recently on tour. He’s a fine risk-reward GPP play this week.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – Value like this is sometimes difficult to find in no-cut events, but Poulter offers plenty of upside considering all the factors of pricing and performance in the focus stat categories. If he can stay out of trouble and avoid the big numbers, he’ll be a solid value over four days in Memphis, where he finished in eighth place in 2019 but faltered (T69) in 2020. Whether you need to include a guy like Poulter depends a lot on your roster construction, but I have a feeling I might end up using him a bit.
Kevin Kisner (DK $6,800) – TPC Southwind, on a cursory glance, really seems like another good spot for Kisner to post a Top 20 or better finish. The venue features small Bermuda greens and plenty of doglegs, making it comparable to venues where he’s done some of his best work on the PGA Tour (including Copperhead and Harbour Town). He’s finished T25 and T27 the past two years, and any improvement on that should work for the builds that include “Lil’ Kis” and his positive putting pedigree this year.
Phil Mickelson (DK $6,600) – Getting Phil at $6,600 is just too good to pass up given his record at TPC Southwind and familiarity with the venue. Sure, he may flake out and start three-putting or miss a bunch of fairways and be playing catch-up after a couple days, but he’s good enough to post a low number early and let his talents carry him the rest of the way. I’ll have exposure in GPPs, though I’m not forcing him into my builds as he’s more of a “last piece” flier.
Robert MacIntyre (DK $6,600) – Like Phil, this lefty has the overall game to flourish at this venue, even if he lacks the course history/experience to be a no-brainer value play. Bobby Mac is a risk since he finished T59 in the 2020 WGC-FedEx (his first and only try), but a string of solid finishes in 2021 may have given him added confidence heading back to Memphis this year.
More value golfers to consider: Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Adam Scott, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose (GPP), Matthew Wolff (GPP), Cameron Champ (GPP)
Ryan Palmer (DK $6,500) – Let’s start by referring to what Sia said in his Initial Picks article, where he touted Palmer as “the type of player that you simply wouldn’t take in a normal cut event” because of his form and the inherent risk you assume with the possibility of the dreaded “two days and done.” If he can post good scores in one or two rounds, that might be enough to return value in stars-and-scrubs builds.
Stewart Cink (DK $6,500) – It’s nice to see other WinDaily writers on the same punts as me, although that could mean elevated ownership, and some of our leverage could “Cink” if we invest a bit too much in good ol’ Stewie Kablooie this week. This is where I’ll stop having anything more than 15% ownership in my tournament entries and keep the remaining suggestions to one or two entries out of 20 in the big field GPPs.
Additional GPP punts: Kevin Na, Lucas Glover, Garrick Higgo, Matt Jones, Jim Herman
This week’s PGA DFS picks article should help you find some winning combinations and focus your player pool for the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s.
Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Despite the lack of a top 10 finish at the Open Championship (his best finish was a T11 at Royal Troon in 2016), Rahm enters the week as the betting favorite and highest priced PGA DFS golfer in the field. There’s no real weakness to his game; he currently leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring – and ranks second in SG: T2G. His ball-striking has been on point this season, he loves links courses and he’s in play for all formats this week.
Rory McIlroy (DK $10,900) – I refuse to give up on Rory and think he’s a good GPP play this week in the wake of the missed cut at the Scottish Open – which he jumped into a little late because his wife and child are still stateside. He may end up being the lowest-owned golfer in the $10K+ range and that’s what we’re looking for since his upside is still in the trophy-hoisting territory. “Rors” is both familiar with this giant-killer venue (T25 here in 2011) and the elements that could stymie a large portion of the PGA DFS field.
Brooks Koepka ($10,700) – Because of his impressive history in majors (four wins in the past five years) and the Open Championship (three top 10s since 2015), Koepka isn’t cheap, but he’s a fine GPP play. The polarizing figure was a 13-year-old spectator in 2003 when Ben Curtis won at Royal St. George’s, and while he said Tuesday morning (in an interview that had the NYT writing about it) that while this isn’t his favorite British Open venue in the venerable rotation, there’s no reason to leave him off your builds with his uncanny ability to compete in the world’s biggest tournaments.
Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – The former Open champion (2017 at Royal Birkdale) is impressive on links courses and has the requisite elements to his game is solid form heading into this week’s test. We have plenty of options in the $7,000-7,500 range this week if we’re rostering Rahm-Spieth to start, and if we’re fading Rahm there’s a great route to balanced builds that start with Spieth as the highest spend ($8K+ remining per golfer). I’ll be hoping to land around 25-40% ownership in GPPs.
Also consider: Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas (GPP)
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,300) – There’s not much more to say about the former Open champion than what Sia said in his U.S. Open Initial picks piece and what I covered in the picks column leading into Torrey Pines, when he finished solo second after being edged out by Rahm. He’s not playing in the Olympics, so this tournament has to be an important one for him as he continues playing solid golf in the late summer/early autumn of his fantastic career. He’s a guy I love in basically all the majors for PGA DFS, but I know he’ll be popular this week.
Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – Hovland – the No. 14 golfer in the world – became the first Norwegian winner in the history of the European tour when he prevailed at the BMW International Open in Germany a couple weeks ago, and his steady play and positive attitude should help him navigate the inexorable bounces and bumps of Royal St. George’s. The only drawback is his last of experience, as this will be his Open Championship debut, and it’s one of those things that’s got Sia concerned, as he explains in the breakdown.
Patrick Reed ($8,800) – While I’m a little skeptical that Reed can endure the elements and win the Open Championship, he’s certainly in play at this low price because of his ability to finish in the top 15. The form isn’t great, and his accuracy could be a problem here, but the ironically nicknamed “Captain America” loves to play the villain and he’s a shrewd large-field GPP play with an elite short game.
Paul Casey (DK $8,600) – Casey disappointed with a T54 at this venue in 2011 (a third-round 78 the main culprit), and his Open Championship finishes have left a bit to be desired through the years. But he’s a much more consistent golfer these days and has six top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments, so I like his chances for a top 10 this week, especially at this relatively fair price.
Tony Finau (DK $8,400) – I’ve said “never again” after being burned by Terrible Tony many times, but the talent level is off the charts and the price is a reasonable one despite two straight MCs at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Finau has not missed a cut at the Open Championship in four tries, and three of those attempts have yielded Top 20 finishes (solo third in 2019, T9 in 2018, T18 in 2016). He probably circled this on the schedule the minute he trudged off the 18th green at Torrey Pines, and I will be surprised (and angry) if he sabotages my GPP lineups again this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $7,900) – As you may have noticed if you’re a regular reader of PGA DFS Picks, Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite golfers to roster in single-entry and all types of GPPs, and I’ll continue that approach this week at Royal St. George’s – a venue where he should thrive – despite the disappointment of coming off a playoff loss to Min Woo Lee at the Scottish Open. His best finish in the Open Championship was the most recent iteration in 2019 (T20), and I believe he’s ready to break through with a top 10 (or better) this time around – when distance is not as important (it’s even shorter than it was in 2011) and he can plot his way around the golf course. In fact, Fitzpatrick came here last year (after having been told that he wasn’t going to enjoy it because of the blind shots and uneven lies) shot 67 and loved the course.
Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – The defending champion is under $8K this week, and that alone puts him in play in all formats, even if he’s exceedingly popular. Lowry performs well in weather and wind, and he was the only player who didn’t collapse in the gale-force gusts that plagued the final round at Royal Portrush Golf Club in 2019. There’s plenty of PGA DFS upside in this price range, and both Fitzpatrick and Lowry make for fine core plays in all kinds of builds.
Sergio Garcia (DK $7,600) – His last Top 5 at a British Open came in 2016, but he finished T9 here in 2011. He’s far from a safe play and I wouldn’t touch him in cash games despite the low price, but he’s a great GPP option given his upside and the dynamic quality of game and ball-striking prowess. He’s had a hard time closing things out this season, with some good rounds giving way to PGA DFS tumbles over the weekend, but he’s in play at this venue in large-field GPPs.
Also consider: Collin Morikawa (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer
Francesco Molinari (DK $7,300) – The talented Italian won the Open Championship in 2018 and finished T11 in 2019 – impressive finishes that show he can handle links style courses with the best of them. He missed the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011, but a decade of additional experience in major championships should help him this week.
Harris English (DK $7,300) – English has piled up the top 10 finishes this season (seven), and he’s one of just five golfers to notch two wins on tour this season. In the focus stats/metrics, he checks some crucial boxes for Royal St. George’s, ranking eighth in SG:T2G and seventh in Bogey Avoidance over his past three tournaments. He’s also missed the weekend just once in five Open appearances and has made cuts in 13 consecutive majors – something that makes him a solid play for single-entry and cash games as well as large-field GPPs.
Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – Fowler is teeing it up in his 11th Open Championship, with only one MC at this event (and three finishes of T6 or better – including a T2 from 2014 and a T5 at Royal St. George’s in 2011. That level of experience is a big help, and he’s finally rounding into form after a rough stretch in late 2020/early 2021. The fan favorite has now secured a weekend pass in three of his last four starts (T8, T11, MC and T32) and the impressive T8 was at the year’s second major – the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.
Robert MacIntyre (DK $7,300) – MacIntyre is right there with the rest of the high-upside players at this price point, even if PGA Tour golf fans aren’t that familiar with his record. Bobby Mac impressed at the Royal Portrush in 2019 at his Open Championship (and major tournament) debut, concluding in difficult conditions with a final round 68 and eventual T6 finish. He’s now ranked No. 53 in the world, making the cut at five straight majors – a T12 at the Masters this April his best major finish since the 2019 Open. MacIntyre shot under par in all four rounds last week and posted a T18 at the Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open – a links with at least a passing resemblance to Royal St. George’s. Excluding a COVID-related withdrawal at the Irish Open recently, The Scotsman has made a remarkable 25 of his last 26 cuts worldwide and may even be viable in cash games this week.
Branden Grace (DK $7,200) – Grace is usually hit-or-miss in major championships, but he arrives sporting some good form due to some sparkling iron play over his last dozen or so rounds. He has a history of going low at the Open, dating back to his 62 in Round three Saturday at Royal Birkdale in 2017 – when he finished T6 with Koepka, Marc Leishman, Alex Noren and Matthew Southgate at -4. The 33-year-old South African also finished inside the top 20 at the Open Championship in 2015, and arrives at this week’s edition on the heels of two consecutive top seven finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T7 at the 2021 U.S. Open.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,200) – Since missing the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011 (which surely sticks in his craw), Poulter has a spotty history at the Open Championship with five MCs and three top 15s – a testament to his dynamic play and viability as a GPP play. His 2021 record is actually a lot more steady: Since the PGA Championship, he’s 6-for-6 with two top five finishes including T4 at the Scottish open this past week.
Alex Noren (DK $7,200) – Noren has a distinguished record at the Open Championship, finishing T11 with Rahm, JT, Molinari and Tom Lewis in 2019 and earning top 10s in 2017 and 2012. He’s also finished among the top 15 (including a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic) in two of the past three starts, sporting excellent T2G numbers in that stretch. I wouldn’t pencil him into all my single-entry lineups, but I’m willing to take as stab in the lower-fee SE and in all types of large-field GPPs.
Matt Kuchar (DK $7,000) – Kuchar is my choice for sneaky veteran bargain play – especially on a course that’s not all about mashing and/or the traditional “target” golf that’s played on a lot of the modern stateside venues. He’s fared well at the open Championship in the past and finished solo second at Royal Birkdale in 2017. In fact, he’s made nine out of his last 10 cuts in this tournament (and eight straight), the only outlier being the 2011 edition at – you guessed it – Royal St. George’s. The revenge narrative is strong this week and Kuchar should be low-owned with Top 10 upside.
Lucas Herbert (DK $6,800) – The woefully mispriced Herbert won at the Irish Open two weeks ago and notched a T4 in Scotland last week, so he’s in fine form heading into the Open. The plucky Australian also finished inside the top 20 at a couple of relatively prestigious PGA Tour events – the Memorial and the Travelers. He’s now won a couple times in his past 23 starts worldwide and should offer plenty of value as you construct your builds this week.
Lucas Glover (DK $6,600) – Hey – it’s another cheap Lucas! Glover is coming off a huge win at the John Deere Classic, snapping a winning drought that lasted over 10 years, and he should be excited about playing a course where he posted his best-ever finish at the Open Championship – a T12 in 2011. Winning two weeks in a row and collecting just his second major championship is a tall order – no doubt – but he’s a risk-reward play that won’t cost you very much to roster.
More value golfers to consider: Phil Mickelson (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger (GPP), Thomas Detry, Matt Wallace, Russell Henley (GPP), Min Woo Lee, Corey Conners (GPP), Danny Willett, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Stewart Cink, Richard Bland, Adam Long (GPP)
Justin Harding (DK $6,500) – More of a single day (first-round?) showdown longshot, Justin Harding heads into the 2021 The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s Golf Club with insanely long (+35000) odds to win, but he’s in play due to the fact that he made the cut and finished 41st in his last appearance at this event in 2019, and he’s super cheap. I’m targeting him for 1/20 GPP entries.
Chris Kirk (DK $6,400) – Kirk made three of his last five cuts, but he’s 17-for-23 this season – decent for a golfer under $6,500. While he missed the cut during his last British Open appearance in 2016, he’s a much better golfer now and should be up to the challenge personally and professionally. Like Harding, I’ll find a place for him in 1/20 large-field GPP entries.
Johannes Veerman (DK $6,100) – Veerman posted a T3 at the Irish Open two weeks ago and is coming off a T8 at the Scottish Open, so the form is solid. He’s seemingly a fans of links-style courses and while he’s a virtual unknown who could boom or bust this week, the price is dirt cheap and he’s one of the better low-cost options in the $6K range – which we’ll need to peruse if we’re going full-on stars and scrubs. He might be my favorite play under $6,600, so I’m willing to click him into 5-10% of my large-field GPPs (and one or two of my 20-max entries).
Additional GPP punts: Sebastian Munoz, Carlos Ortiz, Marcus Armitage, Jason Scrivener, Sam Burns, Chan Kim
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