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The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

Welcome to the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The Northern Trust features the Top 124 in the standings (125 minus Louis) and it is therefore a field that is packed with talent. This course will require all features of the golf game to be firing which means to be successful you’ll need to be good with the short and long game. We will talk plenty about course dymanics and metrics on tonight’s PGA Livestream with Joel and Spencer and myself so tune in at 8:00 EST for that. And now let’s get to the picks for The Northern Trust.

Jon Rahm (11500) – Just like anyone else, Rahm can sometimes have a bad putting tournament but he is absolutely elite in every other department.  Only thing that can stop this guy in 2021 is Covid.  Tough to play him at this price, but if that keeps his ownership down, I’m all aboard.

Jordan Spieth (10800) – The only knock on Spieth is that his long iron game hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders, but outside off that he checks all the boxes.  Last 36 rounds he’s Number 1 in this field in the following categories that I’ve put into my model:  BOB Gained, SG Par 5 and Draftking points.  He’s also inside the Top 15 in the following categories:  APP, PUTT, ARG, T2G, P4 450-500 and Bogey Avoidance.  He’s got the all around game you’re looking for.

Abraham Ancer (9400) – The only issue with Ancer in this tournament is that you’re obviously buying the stock at its height as he’s coming off a win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  With that said, he’s been in good form for a while and has all-around game that we are looking for with the Ball Striking and the short game.

Scottie Scheffler (9300) – This guy hasn’t lost strokes ball striking since the Reagan Administration.  He’s also 2nd in this field in BOB gained over the Last 36 rounds. Plenty of upside here at The Northern Trust.

Webb Simpson (8900) – Webb was a pick of ours last week because he had great course history and because it looked like he had finally turned a corner.  He may not be the best course fit this week, but the corner appears to have been turned which makes this the right price.

Paul Casey (8700) – Seems like a very fair price for a golfer who is in great form and also has the all-around game to compete at this course.  He’s great with the long irons and is actually a much better scorer than most people think as the last 36 rounds establish:  15th in BOB gained, 2nd in SG Par 5, 8th in DK Points and 2nd T2G.  If he gets super popular then he may be relegated to cash only, but for now he can be used in both formats.

Jason Kokrak (7700) – Another golfer that has the upside to smash his soft price and who can pile up the DFS points in a hurry.  His main issue is the SG ARG, but even with that he is still inside the Top 20 in my model (with the upside to finish much higher than that).

Shane Lowry (7500) – Lowry has some flaws OTT and with the PUTT but he really makes up for it on APP.  If he can get things going OTT then I think he can be inside the Top 10 at the close of this tournament.  A GPP play with some upside here.

Brendan Grace (7200) – Much like Lowry, he can be a little erratic OTT, but he makes up for it with great APP play and he can sometimes get red-hot with the putter.  He has finished inside the Top 10 in 3 of his last 5 tournaments so the upside is there to finish high at The Northern Trust.

Charley Hoffman (7000) – He hasn’t played much golf at all lately and I think the time off will help him get back on track.  Hoffman is a consummate ball striker, and quite frankly, does everything well.  If he were coming in with some recent play and good form under his belt, he’d be priced 1000 dollars higher.  I’m happy to take this leap.

Charl Schwartzl (6900) – The DFS community is sophisticated enough to not jump off of a guy due to an MC, but we’ll need to wait and see what happens with Charl after his very poor showing last week.  He’s been in good form overall and I think he’s a value at this price in spite of burning plenty of lineups last week.  A GPP consideration only.

Hank Lebioda (6300) – the metrics are starting to slip a bit for this DFS Darling, but he still rates out as 50th in my model.  He’s pretty weak OTT but he rates out above average on everything else I looked at. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 42-12. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all Northern Trust lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

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