The Tour Championship: Initial Picks

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Welcome to the FedEx Cup Playoff finale. The Tour Championship will guarantee some big paydays for this entire field, with the winner taking home 15 million dollars. The DK field is comprised of only 29 players but Patrick Reed should be added which would round out the 30 person field. We will talk about course dynamics and roster construction on Tuesday’s PGA Livestream so make sure to join us there at 8:00 EST. Please keep in mind starting strokes apply here (which we will also talk about on the PGA show). My focus this week is to be a little more contrarian than normal in GPP as there will be some mega-chalk with this week. Let’s get to the Tour Championship picks.

Jon Rahm (13000) – Rahm begins this tournament four shots behind pre-tournament leader Patrick Cantlay, but that doesn’t concern me at all. Rahm is playing better golf than anyone and I expect him to prove he’s the best golfer on the planet this week. He starts at -6.

Tony Finau (11000) – He’s in excellent form (other than a pedestrian showing last week), but he’ll only be a play for me if his ownership is relatively low (relative to the rest of the 10k and above range). He starts at -8.

Dustin Johnson (10700) – I think DJ will end up being relatively contrarian since most people will choose to pay up for a star in better form or pay down for a guy like Rory or Xander (both of whom I also like). DJ isn’t in the best form but has some great East Lake and Tour Championship history. Won’t take much for him to get his groove back. He starts at -3.

Rory McIlroy (9300) – Great price plus great form plus great history. Rory is likely to be very popular at this price so feel free to fade him due to ownership, but he’s a great value and I’ll find a way to play him. He starts at -2.

Xander Schauffele (8900) – Another guy likely to be popular and for good reason. He absolutely destroys East Lake and illustrated that last year shooting a true 15 under par (that’s NOT accounting for starting strokes). He starts at -2.

Viktor Hovland (8000) – I’m trying to stay patient with Hovland as he was a disappointment last week. With that said, he did gain over 5.5 strokes BS and it was the short game that really failed him. At this price I’m willing to see if he can turn it around and climb the Tour Championship leaderboard. He starts at -3.

Scottie Scheffler (6800) – He was curiously bad OTT last week but great on APP. He’s way behind from a starting strokes standpoint but certainly has the complete game to climb the leaderboard. He starts at -1.

Hideki Matsuyama (6400) – A monster with the ball striking and simply needs to catch a good putter. It’s a tall order for Hideki to climb the Tour Championship leaderboard, but at this price I’m willing to invest (unless his ownership is prohibitive). He starts at -1.

Joaquin Niemann (5600) – With Berger and EVR likely garnering a ton of ownership, I’ll use Niemann as my GPP pivot. Niemann was great BS last week and was bad with the short game. I’m willing to take a chance on him to avoid some chalk (I do like Berger’s price so I will find a way to play him here and there despite his anticipated mega-chalk status). Niemann starts at -1.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12. No SW with the short field and no cut.

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