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Rory Mcllroy

The 151st Open Championship Picks

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Claret jug sits at Hoylake Royal Liverpool Golf Club, host for our 151st The Open Championship Picks

Golf snobs will be delighted for the return to Royal Liverpool Golf Club, colloquially known as Hoylake, for the 151st Open Championship. Although last week’s Genesis Scottish Open offers up similar-ish conditions, The Renaissance Club can really only be described at links golf lite. For many, performance on links track remains the true test of golf. It has perennially been an examination of all aspects of a golfers game. Further, one that has managed to largely avoid the increasing advantage of the long drivers that now dominate the leaderboards across the globe. This course is iconic and provides a rugged yet beautiful test for our Open Championship picks.

We were oh so close to yet another winner at the Scottish Open. Rory McIlroy won in near impossible circumstances and continues to impress, as he arrives at a course he won at in 2014. We had just two selections last week with a unit stake over 1. They were Scottie Scheffler, who finished 3rd in typical fashion, and Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton particularly had a 2 shot lead into the last 9 holes, before throwing that away over 6 holes to wind up 6th. That was also in rather typical fashion for what has been a frustrating year for the Brit. We also had young Scot Ewen Ferguson continuing to impress. He was put up at a massive 250/1 and finished up in 12th, just two shots outside the place money but sufficient to cash both Top 20 and Top 40 bets he had recommended.

Royal Liverpool Golf Club Hoylake – Course Analysis

Royal Liverpool Golf Club presents as a stern test for the Open picks. The first, and perhaps more notable feature, are the 6 internal out of bounds areas for the golfers to avoid. For the uninitiated, finding OB off the tee is not just a penalty shot but also loss of distance. It is one of the harshest penalties a golfer can face in regular circumstances. The scary thing with Hoylake is that these areas are often mere yards from the fairway. It does not take much here for things to go very, very wrong. Not something we want for our Open Championship picks!

Further adding to this are strategically placed fairway bunkers. Often occurring right in the key landing distances, these bunkers are deep with extreme faces. They should be viewed as you would a water hazard. The same bunkers are littered around the greens, with many areas shaved and slope to feed your golf ball right to the bottom of the pit.

And yet, we are not done with the hazards here. Thick gorse bushes are found around the course and, again, just mere yards off the relatively narrow fairways. Gorse presents extremely thick bushes with sturdy branches. If finding your ball in them is near impossible, hitting a shot from them certainly is.

Ideal Player Profile for The Open Championship picks

What this means is you can’t simply rip driver here whenever you like. You will need to be extremely strategic and display exquisite course management to be successful. If you can be both long and consistently straight off the tee, then that is obviously best. It is hard to see a winner outside the really great drivers of the golf ball.

Otherwise, driving accuracy would be the preference for our Open Championship picks. Preference is given to long drivers comfortable using iron off the tee when strategically appropriate. Many holes require the player to draw the golf ball so this should also be noted. As always, approach will be a factor. Lesser weighting is given to around the green and putting than those two factors.

Short game is obviously imperative in links golf, so these aren’t discounted entirely. This is given many around the green shots are subject to a little luck where the ball lands in the bunker, lessening some of the around the green skill. With putting, the slower than normal greens provide a moderately easier test.

Course Comps for Royal Liverpool

Hoylake provides a very different test off the tee than last year’s host at the Old Course at St Andrews. That course features huge 100 yard wide fairways and nothing to penal in terms of hazards when driving. A much better comparison can be found at the 2019 Open Championship host Portrush. Visually they are much a like, but they also both have a draw preference to their layout.

A somewhat obscure comparison can be made between the Qatar Masters host, Doha Golf Club. That tournament has thrown out a number of Open Championship winners or likely contenders. That includes Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson, and Paul Lawrie. The course is a Kyle Phillips design, the same designer of Kingsbarns. That course features in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation, another solid form guide to The Open Championship picks.

For the PGA Tour players, the difficulty comes that they really don’t have any links courses in the USA. Some parallels can be extracted through correlation. First, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National have provided similar names to the prior Open Championship leaderboards hosted here in 2006 and 2014. They ask similar questions in different ways. The Players requires driving accuracy off the tee with heavy penalty if too wayward. Augusta National requires a strong driver, with excellent approach and around the green play.

Finally, The Honda Classic host PGA National is a great look. Padraig Harrington is a two time champion both at The Open Championship and there. McIlroy, Els, Scott, and Rickie Fowler also dot both the leaderboards there and are either Open Championship winners or runner ups. Any PGA Tour players who have played somewhat well in Scottish Open is a nice bonus for The Open Championship picks.

Weather

Foremost when considering the weather, you should note the unique format at The Open Championship. It is tradition that all players start on the 1st tee. As such, tee times cover a huge range from the early first sunlight hours of 6:35am through to those finishing in twilight at 4:16pm.

This presents a unique question for weather. Typically, coastal areas experience increased wind levels from midday through to late afternoon. This though does tend to fade as it enters evening. The main cause for this is the colder air over the seas moves towards the warmer air over land as it heats up, rises, and creates a low pressure area for the winds to advance.

This rings true across both Thursday and Friday. Of the first two days, Friday looks to be the windier of the two. Rain also looks to be a factor and consistent across the tournament.

Preference is given to those with a very early tee time Friday, which should present the best conditions of that day. Simply though, the key is to not find a golfer stuck in the middle ground for our Open Championship picks. I want golfers who get to take advantage of at least one decent true morning start. Those very late in the day may experience a small benefit too. The risk is ending up stuck with a late morning tee time, when winds are already picking up, and then ending up in the afternoon the next day. This should be avoided wherever possible.

151st The Open Championship Picks

Headline Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds) with 25% Bet Boost

Shane Lowry
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Max Homa
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Adam Scott
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Ryan Fox
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788095069-adc9-920?id=63fbd158-d2f7-427a-8852-862667446fda”]

Long-Shot Bombs

Note that, as per the Scottish Open, I like to include some long-shot bombs. This comes due to the potential volatility inherent in links golf, presenting opportunities further down the board at inflated prices. This is combined along with the specialist nature that players can develop specific to links courses. You’ll see that the win stake on these is heavily reduced, with the main focus on obtaining exposure in Top 20 and Top 40 markets.

Matthew Jordan
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +175

Kurt Kitayama
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Alex Noren – Your 151st Open Championship Best Long-Shot Bomb
0.25pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
3.5pt Top 40 +230 (TAB)

Ewen Ferguson
0.25pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (Bet365)

Victor Perez
0.25pt E/W +35000 (Unibet with 7 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (TAB)

Matt Wallace
0.25pt E/W +40000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +900 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +320 (TAB)

Matthew Southgate
0.25pt E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (William Hill)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +300 (Bet365)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788884589-adc9-136?id=c7dca0c6-4471-4b0b-abe5-1615eb7f10a4″]

Player Profiles for The Open Championship Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite

Cases can be made for all of Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Cam Smith, and Koepka. The fact is that, if anything, they are likely priced very correctly in the market and often below fair odds. This is a volatile tournament and fading the favourites is something we almost just have to do. There is little in the way of value there.

Although somewhat disappointed to miss the opening 30/1 which we liked, I’m still happy to side with Cantlay at the top of the board. The 22/1 on offer can be inflated by 25% with Bet365, which I recommend doing if you have access to that bookmaker.

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Cantlay sucks in majors. I get it. The question comes, do we simply think Cantlay will never win a major? I’m not convinced that will be the case when his career is all said and done. What should also be noted is he is now on a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 14th or better in majors. A good start is imperative to his chances of success, something he can hopefully obtain with a morning tee time Thursday.

Cantlay is one of the strongest drivers in the game. Over the past 6 months, he is the 12th in this field for driving accuracy despite being long off the tee. That jumps to 7th if looking at the last 3 months. Further, he is leader for par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour, a stat he also led in 2022. He has already shown an aptitude for links golf with finishes of 8th and 12th in the Open previously. I expect him to be in the mix come Sunday. Here’s hoping he can then shut the door and silence the critics.

Shane Lowry

Lowry is once again quietly putting together an impressive season. He is one of a small smattering of golfers who have finished in the Top 20 in every major for 2023. That includes 16th and 3rd at The Masters, which should be somewhat correlated to here.

Beyond the obvious correlations from being The Open winner at Portrush, one of the better past courses for guidance here, he has a great record at other comp courses. This includes finishes of 2nd and 5th at the Honda Classic for the past two years and 3 finishes of 16th or better at The Players.

Last week’s Scottish Open was eye catching given a large spike in his short game performance. Typically the weakest element of his game, he wound up 12th despite not possessing his best approach week. A return to normality with his ball striking numbers will see him go close here if he putts even half as well as he did in Scotland.

Max Homa

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Homa sucks in majors. I get it. Much like Cantlay though, I suspect we will see Homa as a major champion at some point in his career and The Open Championship seems to fit well.

Homa has impressed recently at The Players, with finishes of 6th an 13th at his last two appearances. That course rewards both long and straight drivers of the ball, which Homa possesses in spades. Homa’s victories have often come in tough conditions, particularly when it is raining. His wins at the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship come to mind. Both were wet tournaments, but also on courses favouring accuracy off the tee. All of his 8 victories bar one have come at scores from -8 to -16. With likely winning score here likely to be in the -12 to -15 range, that fits right in his pocket.

As the 8th best golfer in the world, we are getting an inflated price at 50/1 here. An avid fan of golf history, he is well aware of the special place The Open holds in the world of golf. He would make for a worthy champion.

Adam Scott

We were on Adam Scott last week, who missed the cut right on the number. That may not end up a bad thing, given the volatile winds over the weekend and very early starts that ensued. If not in contention, he was likely best to pack up and head down to Hoylake a little in advance.

He arrives at a course where he finished 8th and 5th in the prior to renditions hosted at Royal Liverpool. Further building to his links (pun unintended) are his two wins at the Qatar Masters and a win at the Honda Classic. Alongside those impeccable credentials are a multitude of top 20s at The Players and a green jacket. Scott could well be the veteran who pops up here for a major win towards the end of a stellar career.

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value

Conners quietly went about building a decent links warm-up last week with a 19th placed finished at the Scottish Open. We also saw a large increase in driving accuracy but, most notably for Conners, a good week putting.

Conners is long and straight off the tee, rankings 11th in SG:OTT over the last 3, 6, and 12 months and 8th if looking over 2 years. 15th and 28th at the past two Opens suggest he isn’t completely foreign to links golf. He also boasts a great record at Augusta National with a run of 6th, 8th, and 10th at The Masters between 2020-2022. 12th at the PGA Championship is also not the worst guide, with a course that played very well but featured incredibly penal rough if straying a couple yards off the fairway. Should he find a half decent putter, he is a shout to surprise a few here.

Ryan Fox

Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox could well be a sneaky look to sneak another claret jug for New Zealand here. Fox has had a sterling few years as his game continues to grow. He continued that with a 12th place finish last week at the Scottish Open, where he has a previous 4th in 2017.

Not adverse to windy conditions, Foxy has already displayed some of his best on links courses. We saw that in his most notable victory, winning the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links in sometimes torrid conditions. He also surprised for a 16th at the 2019 Open at Portrush. That came well before the levels we see him playing at now and broke a run of 7 consecutive missed cuts. He also follows those performances at other courses where he is equally happy using a 2 iron off the tree. The Soudal Open comes to mind, where he finished 2nd on a very narrow test hindered when his 2 iron shaft actually cracked on the final day.

He also owns the course record at his home course, Te Arai Links, which he broke in February this year. He shot a 60 there: https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/news/articles/detail/ryan-fox-breaks-course-record-at-te-arai-links-on-trip-back-home/

If you want to look at similarities, simply go and look at some of the photos of that beautiful piece of land.

I asked in my recent interview with Ryan Fox about what it is about links golf suits his game so well. He pointed to the fact he prefers tests where he feels he doesn’t have to make birdie every hole. That more strategic, methodical approach gives me faith he will put the driver away when needed. When he gets to the par 5s and par 4s, he can let the big dog eat and attack some of those longer holes. Go well Foxy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzUk1Qjj6so&t=339s

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 151st The Open Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

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1 year ago 0 comments

Golf Betting 101: How To Pick More Winning Golfers

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

golf analysis, winning golf bets, how to win at golf betting — Get that winning feeling with WinDaily Sports

An insight into my golf analysis process and key indicators to identify success.

Golf betting can be tricky. The majority of fields have 140+ golfers to chose from, every week there is a different course to study, and it is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements.

However, this also presents opportunity. With a large number of variables and potential players to select, bookmakers often have a tough time correctly setting golf markets. Likewise, daily fantasy golf providers often produce misprices.

In this article, I will provide a brief overview of my process. I provide some of the tools and key indicators I use to select my golf betting tips. Find out below why I am banned by multiple bookmakers.

2022 Golf Bets Tips Record

16 outright winners
DP World Tour +24% ROI
PGA Tour +26% ROI

The Essentials: Get the WinDaily Sports Edge

To make it easy, we have a fantastic team at WinDaily Sports who are here to do all that heavy lifting for you. With myself (@deepdivegolf), Sia (@sianejad), Joel (@draftmasterflex), and Spence (@teeoffsports) you have some of the best experts in the game to guide and coach you in your golf betting.

WinDaily Sports YouTube Channel & PGA Draftcast

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Make sure you SUBSCRIBE and have the NOTIFICATION BELL turned on for our YouTube channel! We run our popular PGA Draftcast show for every tournament at 9pm EST Tuesdays prior to the tournament.

This is the only show where the audience draft a team live to go against the experts! It is essential viewing to hear our thoughts and favourite plays, as well as the iconic first-round leader picks and Spencer’s famous super in-depth course breakdowns.

WinDaily Sports Discord Channel

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Get coaching directly from our experts, chat directly with our team members, and ask any questions you may have. We can help provide guidance and our expert golf betting tips can help you identify the best selections every week. We also are happy to teach you the skills required to make you a consistent, winning player. Particularly, you will find up to date weather forecasting in the last 24 hours prior to a tournament which can be key to your success (or failure) in any given week.

WinDaily Golf Analysis Website Articles

https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-golf/

Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

My articles provide in-depth golf analysis and golf betting picks for the tournament. I particularly see gaps in the market that provide an edge in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).

We also have fantastic weekly DFS ownership projections from Steven Spolardi (@spolardi) which are simply the best in class. These articles are on the WinDaily website and are essential for gaining ownership leverage, especially in large GPP tournaments. Example here: https://windailysports.com/the-pga-championship-ownership-projections/

Key Golf Betting Terms

This article works in conjunction with our “Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.

Before we get started on some of the processes I use, there are some key terms we need to know.

How are odds displayed for golf betting?

There are three main ways to display betting odds: decimal odds, fractional odds, and American odds.

In decimal odds, the amount is the total amount returned for every $1 bet. A $1 bet at odds of $10.00 will return $10.00. This is your original $1 stake plus $9 of profit.

In fractional odds, it is a ratio such as 14/1 (fourteen-to-one). They represent the profit won if the bet cashes. A $1 bet at those odds would return $15, being $14 of profit and the original $1 staked.

American odds vary whether a +/- sign is in front of the odds. Odds with a positive sign in front indicate the profit won on a $100 bet. +700 indicates that a bet of $100 will return $800, being the original $100 staked and $700 of profit.

If there is a negative sign in front of the number, this indicates the amount you would need to bet to win $100 of profit. Odds of -200 mean you would bet $200 to win $300 ($100 of profit plus the original stake). You will not often find these odds in golf pre-tournament other than in match-ups between two golfers.

Being based in New Zealand, I tend to use decimal odds when I provide my golf betting tips. I also denote my bets in units or points (pts). This means you can invest the amount that you feel comfortable spending.

What are the main types of golf bets I can make?

There are a few main markets that make up the majority of golf bets.

Outright Winner: Does what is says on the tin. You are betting the golfer to win the tournament.

Top Finish: Betting on a golfer to finish within specified number of places from the top of the leaderboard. Most bookmakers will release Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 markets for each tournament. Many will even offer Top 30 or Top 40 markets, which can be a good option for betting outsiders.

Be aware that most bookmakers will apply dead-heat rules to such bets. This means if you place a Top 10 bet and your golfer ties for 10th exactly with 4 other golfers, your odds will be divided by 4.

Match-Up Bets: These bets typically pit two golfers against each other. They can be placed across the entirety of the tournament or occasionally for a single 18 hole round.

Prop Bets: Of course, there are also a large variety of prop (short for proposition) bets to investigate. For example, will there be a hole-in-one at the tournament? It is best to avoid these, especially when you first start in golf betting. They can be fun, but also are more unlikely to be predictable nor profitable.

What are Each-Way Golf Bets?

Many bookmakers, especially outside of the USA, will offer each-way (E/W) bets for golf. This bet actually consists of two bets: the golfer to win the tournament and the golfer to place. The place terms are always displayed. The most common place terms currently are 5 places at 1/4 odds and 8 places at 1/5 odds. Note that dead-heat rules will also apply if your player ties for the exact number of places on offer.

These provide great value and present you with better place odds compared to a typical top finish market. Think of it as a reward from the bookmaker for also making a win bet alongside your place bet.

For example, you pick Rory McIlroy to win a tournament. You take him at $20.00 E/W with place terms of 5 places at 1/4 odds. If McIlroy wins the tournament, you would collect both the win bet and the place bet. However, say McIlroy finishes in 3rd place. You would then win the place portion of your bet. In this instance, $20.00 divided by 4 would return place odds of $5.00. However, pre-tournament his Top 5 finish odds may only have been $3.50. You gave yourself the opportunity to cash an outright win ticket, but also were rewarded with better place odds as a result.

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage. It indicates what the bookmakers believe to be the chance of a result occurring. You can calculate implied probability using the following formula:

(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability

There are also various websites that will perform this calculation for you.

For example, the odds for Jon Rahm are $20.00 (19/1 or +1900) to win a particular golf tournament. The bookmakers are saying they believe Rahm has a 5% chance to win the tournament.

What is Expected Value?

Every time you place a bet, your selection has an “expected value” or “EV”. In short, this indicates what you can expect the bet to win (or lose) if made over a long time frame at the same odds. A positive EV bet is a winning play. We expect it to return a positive amount over the long-run if made time and again. Conversely, a negative EV bet is one we expect to lose over time.

Tip 1: Look to bet value and think long-term

The biggest golf betting mistake I see is trying to pick the winner every week. This may seem slightly counter-intuitive at first. I mean, we want to pick winning golfers, right? The fact is, you can make a bad bet and win money. You can also make a good bet and lose money. Let me explain.

Pre-tournament, you decide that given your analysis Justin Thomas will play well this week. You place a outright win bet on him to win at odds of $40.00. This bet has an implied probability of 2.5% or one-in-forty times.

Negative EV

Say that the correct chance for Justin Thomas to win was 2% or one-in-fifty times. Whether Thomas wins or loses the tournament is actually irrelevant. This is a negative EV bet. The more times that you place the bet, then the more times you will lose than win over time. Even if Thomas does win the tournament, you still made a negative EV bet.

Positive EV

Let’s look at the opposite. Say that you know Thomas has been working with a new swing coach, he recently shot a low round at a similar style of course, plays well in the wind and you can see in the forecast strong winds are forecast. He is the wrong price with bookmakers and his fair odds are actually $33.00 or an implied probability of 3%.

Again, irrespective of the result, this is a bet that we want to make. It has a positive EV and, over the long-term, will win you money. Even if Thomas doesn’t win the tournament, you made a positive EV bet.

Short-priced favourites

You will rarely find that the top few golfers in the market present positive EV opportunities. The bookmakers know the majority of casual armchair golf punters will tend towards the top of the board. They will bet stars, names that they know, and golfers they want to cheer for. Bookmakers need to mitigate this risk and also boost their profits. Especially when odds are very short, you are unlikely to be getting any value.

My role is helping you to identify positive EV spots. I provide golf betting tips where the actual chance of a golfer winning is higher than the implied probability currently on offer. This is the only way to win in golf betting in the long-term.

Tip 2: Structure your golf betting carefully and precisely

People structure their golf bets in many different ways. You often find people betting a certain amount on every bet they make. Others will bet an amount in order to win a specific value. For example, they bet an amount required to win $1,000 at the odds on offer.

The optimal way to structure your bets should be based upon the difference between the implied probability and the actual probability of the event occurring. If the margin is wider between the two figures, then you should bet more. Your confidence interval will be higher. Essentially, based upon your analysis you are more confident of an edge to true odds existing and you want to push that advantage. If the edge is smaller, then you should bet less.

You will find with my golf betting tips through WinDaily Sports that I provide suggested staking. I will indicate what type of bet to make and how many units or points (pts) I recommend on each option. This makes it easy for you to construct your golf betting card ahead of the tournament.

How do I read the suggested staking provided for golf betting?

Let’s look at the below example of how my suggested staking is used:

Tom Kim
1pt E/W $40.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.50

In the above, my recommended bet is to stake 1 point E/W (1 unit to Win and 1 unit to Place). The place terms are indicated in brackets. The bookmaker has offered 8 places, with 1/5th the win odds if Tom Kim finishes in the Top 8. I also recommend 3 units on a Top 20 bet at $3.50.

Whatever you choose to make the value of your unit is up to you. 1 unit could be $5, $10, or $100. It really depends on what you are comfortable with and the size of your bank roll.

I would recommend always betting less than a maximum of 5% of your total allocated betting bank roll on any given tournament. You will encounter losing streaks and we do not advocate a “get rich quick” scheme. You will run into cash flow issues if you are betting too much of your bank roll on a given week. Instead, aim for a sustained systematic approach which leads to you growing your bankroll.

Most importantly, never bet more than you can lose. WinDaily Sports is a great community and we want you to be having fun. So, if it no longer is, then stop.

Tip 3: Top Finish Bets and Match-Ups are your bread and butter

I get it. Win bets are sexy. There is nothing better than placing your bets to then see one of your golfers come through to lift the trophy. It is even better when they are paying triple-figure odds!

The reality is that the wins you collect on your place and match-up bets are what will keep your wheels greased. Picking winning golfers is not easy. There are 140+ golfers who play in most tournaments and only one will ever win. And, even when you are regularly placing positive EV bets, it will sometimes be many weeks between win bets. Remember, you are looking at the long-term and following your process.

What you should be aiming for is to regularly be cashing place and match-up bets. One, this will mean that you are usually breaking even or making a small profit every week. When you do achieve a win bet, you will then reap the rewards and a larger profit. This keeps your cash flow positive and ensures you don’t lose your entire bankroll chasing Hail Mary win only bets.

Secondly, if you are regularly seeing your golfers place in the top end of the leaderboard that is a positive sign. There is still an element of luck in golf. The bounce of a ball, a few putts that just lip out, or a random gust of wind can be the difference between 1st and 20th. The more often your golfers are ending up in a position to potentially complete a victory, the better.

Tip 4: Meteorology and Agronomy

Meteorology

When looking at golf betting analysis, you need to continuously monitor the weather. It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few golf bettors will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Check the weather when initially analyzing the tournament. Check the weather in the last 24 hours before first tee-times. Basically, check the weather continuously before and throughout the tournament.

As mentioned in my DFS 101 article, you can get an edge depending when golfers tee off. Tee-times typically of two distinct groupings between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time. If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.

Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate.

At WinDaily, we use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can. I’m here to make this easy for you and provide the best information available. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord, particularly in the 24 hours prior to tournament start, to give yourself an edge!

Agronomy

You also want to check the condition of the course. Many courses on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour have been on the circuit for many decades. This brings with it a wealth of data that you can delve into (but you still want to pay attention to any changes ahead of the tournament, such as longer rough or reshaping of certain holes).

However, there are always a few new courses to interpret each season. Three of the four golf majors – the PGA Championship, US Open, and The Open Championship (or British Open) – are often played on courses that have not been played on professionally for several years if ever. I always recommend for new courses to find video flyovers, photos, and watch interviews. You want to try to get a feel for the course and what type of player it may suit.

Grass Types

Grass type also makes a difference. This is particularly true on the greens, where different types of golf can see varying performance by golfers. The most common greens are Bermuda, Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and Paspalum.

Bermuda is found commonly in Florida and typically in warmer climates. It can be somewhat easier to read. Bentgrass is typically found in areas which have cooler summers and in coastal areas. Poa Annua has a reputation for getting bumpy in the afternoon and can be tricky to putt on. Paspalum is a very sturdy grass that is highly resistant to salt. It is generally only found in coastal and tropical courses. Being a hardy grass, it can grab the ball more than other surfaces and prove sticky.

You want to pay particular attention to prevailing wind, wind gusts, any rain forecast, and ground condition. A dry, firm course in windy conditions will play a lot more difficult to a soft course in calm conditions. This can influence both tee-time stacks, but also the type of golfer you want to look for.

Tip 5: Look for Live In-Play Golf Betting Opportunities

There remains great opportunities for live in-play golf betting. As mentioned, there are a huge number of factors that bookmakers need to take into account. Not only are there a huge number of players to account for, but bookmakers also need to know where they each are on the course. They are often too slow to react and adjust their odds. Often bookmakers identify the number of holes a golfer has left in the round and not account for whether those holes are potential birdie holes, for example.

Weather can play a factor for in-play bet opportunities. With tournaments typically running over four rounds, the weather can change quickly from a Thursday to Sunday. For example, we spotted a potential weather edge develop recently at the Italian Open. Saturday afternoon was suddenly forecast for very high winds. This meant golfers further back on the leaderboard and teeing off earlier Saturday morning were going to enjoy easier scoring conditions. We tipped Robert MacIntyre live in-play, who managed to take advantage of the conditions and went on to win the tournament at odds of 125/1.

Tip 6: Identify Key Improvements in Stoke Gained Trends

If you’re new to Strokes Gained and have not read my Golf DFS 101 article, head over for a basic run-down on Strokes Gained here.

Per that article, ball-striking metrics tend to be “stickier”. If a golfer has made recent improvement in their approach play, this is more likely to be retained to subsequent tournaments. This is one of the key trends I always look for in players that appear to be a good course fit. I also like to identify whether the increase in SG: APP has been linked with recent improvement in driving accuracy. These two metrics combined give an indication that the golfer’s swing is in good shape and they are striking the ball well.

If a player has made recent improvement in SG: APP, driving accuracy, and if they have previous positive course form, that is a situation I want to pay close attention to. Do be aware to check how recent those performances were, as you will want to give less weighting to tournaments which were a month or longer ago.

Putting statistics are not that important (usually) for golf betting

SG: PUTT, followed by SG: ATG, is the most volatile metric. So much of short-game comes down to touch, feel, and confidence. Putts can be off by a mere centimeter and miss, or a golfer can get hot and suddenly make every putt they see.

Yes, there are better putters than others. But, as a rule, a recent hot putting performance does not necessarily mean they will putt well the next tournament. I prefer to see a longer stretch of improved putting before I start giving credence to the fact that the golfer has actually made some permanent gains with the flat-stick.

Regression to the mean

One of the biggest mistakes I see bettors making is not comparing recent improvements to a golfer’s longer term baseline. If Viktor Hovland is hitting the ball well on approach, that is almost a given as he is one of the best iron player’s in the game. We expect him to hit the ball well on approach. However, if Hovland starts hitting more fairways with his driver or making improvements in his SG: ATG, then I am beginning to get interested.

Likewise, if a golfer has had a great week putting, we would expect the golfer to experience regression towards their mean. As putting is more volatile, we typically also experience this regression more quickly. Basically, we would expect the golfer’s form to return towards their average baseline.

Summary

There are a huge number of factors that goes into successful golf analysis. The majority can’t, or simply won’t, put in the time required to be able to identify positive EV golf betting opportunities. It always pays to remember that it is the bookmakers job to analyze golf tournaments better than you to set fair pricing. At WinDaily, we are here to help and give you that winning edge!

If you’ve made it this far through the article, are you curious about giving WinDaily a go? Join now with a no obligation 1-month free trial so you can test out the website and services available. If you decide to keep the product, it is the best value on the market at just $5.99 for access to ALL sports.

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2 years ago 0 comments

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122nd US Open: Golf Betting Tips, Long-Shots, and Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

If you haven't already, head over here to get your full golf deep dive including course analysis and weather forecasts:https://windailysports.com/122nd-us-open-course-analysis-and-weather-deep-dive/?ref=31
Suggested Staking
Headliners

Jordan Spieth 1pt E/W $29.00 (bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Jordan ...

3 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks: CJ Cup @ The Summit Club

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the CJ Cup @ the Summit Club and helping you find some winning teams!
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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Strong field of 78 gol...

3 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks: Tour Championship at East Lake

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’ Championship helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Just 30 golfers & no cut
Players starting “scores” are determined by their FedExCup positions (-10 thru even par)
Those starting scores are reflected in the pricing
The course: East Lake Golf Club (Atlanta, GA)
- Par 70: 7,346 yards – Donald Ross design (renovations have made it tougher over the years)
- Bermuda Greens
- Long par 3s and 4s
  - Other Ross courses with correlative success: Sedgefield, Plainfield, Aronimink Golf Club, Oak Hill, Pinehurst #2.
  - Weather expected to have minimal effect this week, course will be receptive during outset
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Ball Striking, Opportunities Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Par 4s Gained (450-500), Par 5s Gained, Good Drives Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $11,000 and up):

Patrick Cantlay (DK $13,400) – It’s going to be hard to pay the obnoxious price for the guy starting off 10 strokes under par, but the performance of Cantlay’s driver and putter in that epic playoff victory shows that he’s really in a good place (with a two shot lead over the heading into the Tour Championship. I have more interest in the other guys but will find a way to fit him into 2/10 GPPs.

Jon Rahm (DK $13,000) – After a hot start at Caves Valley, Rahm seemed to get a bit distracted and annoyed and faded down the stretch, finishing in a share of ninth place after shooting a two-under 70 in the final round of the BMW Championship. He’s only four back of the lead heading into the Tour Championship, but he’s awfully expensive, so he almost has to win to justify the price. I’ll use him in 2/10 GPPs.

Tony Finau (DK $11,800) – Finau already has a one stroke lead on Rahm and sits just three back after a blistering final round 63 that included birdies on five of his final six holes – the lowest round of the day by two shots. His confidence and putting is at an all-time high and those are traditionally the only things that have kept him from the elite tier of PGA Tour golfers.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Justin Thomas (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $8,000 to $10,900):

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,700) – I’ve got to hand it to Steven Polardi (AKA Sicily Kid) with his DJ pick last week, since I was unconvinced he had his driver figured out. Johnson’s 27 birdies were the second most in the field for the week, and East Lake, while difficult, has been one of his favorite venues. DJ also ranked fourth in SG: OTT last week and seventh in SG: Putting, so he’s got a shot at defending his title this week.

Rory McIlroy (DK 9,300) – Rory is just way too cheap given how well he’s been striking it (he ranked second in SG: OTT and fourth in SG: T2G last week). At this price he really only needs to sneak into the Top 5 for the week, and he’s only four strokes off of that slot to start the tournament. He’s a horse for the East Lake course and will be in my core for cash and single-entry GPP.

Xander Schauffele (DK 8,900) – Schauffele’s in a similar position to Rory (starting at -2) and is even $400 cheaper. Sia points out in the Initial Picks article that Xander’s true score in last year’s event was -15, and his solid course history (and track record in no-cut events) means he’s an excellent (but likely popular) value play this week.

Viktor Hovland $8,000) – Hovland immediately stuck out to me as a guy who we routinely look to in cash builds for his consistency, and even if that hasn’t ben there of late (largely due to a poor putter), the change of venue and immediacy of the Tour Championship should help him exorcise some of those demons and finish in the Top 10.

Also consider: Cameron Smith (GPP), Harris English, Sam Burns (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $5,000 to $7,900):

Brooks Koepka (DK $7,800) – Something has been off about Koepka for a while now, but he made 21 birdies last week despite some poor putting and we know he usually saves his most epic performances for high profile events. He may not have a great shot at winning, but he’s in the same starting position as McIlroy and Schauffele and comes at a severely discounted price.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $6,800) – As well as he hit the ball on approach last week, I could see Scheffler getting his driver straightened out and come out firing with a 65 or 66 and cutting the gap to five strokes of the lead after Day 1. He’s a sneaky play at this price and will be in my single-entry core.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $6,400) – We know that Deki can make birdies in bunches when he’s rolling it good, since his ball striking remains elite on the PGA Tour. The reigning Master champ is coming off a disappointing week at Caves Valley, but he’s bound to popular at this price.

Daniel Berger (DK $5,800) – Berger will garner a ton of ownership and makes a lot of sense as a starting value piece for cash game builds, especially considering he finds a way to sneak into the Top 15 at East Lake almost every year. My GPP ownership will be predicate don where the field lands.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $5,600) – Niemann started off slowly last week but came alive with 15 birdies over his last two rounds to sneak into the Top 30. The price is way too low and he’ll be in my core of GPP value plays, possibly making the final cut for my single-entry builds.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, Jason Kokrak, Erik van Rooyen

3 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks: BMW Championship

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s Week 2 of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and our PGA DFS picks should help us find some winning teams at the BMW Championship!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of top 70 (69 in the field) golfers in FedEx Cup points
No Cut
Stacked playoff field with even more on the line
The course: Caves Valley Golf Club (newer venue with not much history)
- Par 72: 7,542 yards – designed by Tom Fazio
- Fast A-4 Bentgrass greens and deep bunkers
- Long course where driving distance is more important than usual
- Bulk of par 3s are 220+ yards – one that requires carrying a pond the entire hole
- Lots of long approaches at 175+ yards
- The course has some wide-open spaces but adds a few interesting water hazards – holes 11 and 12 have large ponds flanking the right side of the hole
- We need birdie makers and guys who rack up DK points because it’s a no cut event
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better%, SG: Putting (Bentgrass) Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Bogey Avoidance, Sand Saves

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,700) – He’s No. 1 on my mixed model and is the clear top dog and betting favorite, despite the final few holes at the Northern Trust that saw him slide into solo third place. That finish was good enough for his fourth straight top 10 and 12th of 2021. No reason to move away from him this week other than the possibility he’s carrying some frustration into the BMW.

Xander Schauffele (DK $11,100) – I like the idea of Xander getting a no-cut event on the heels of a weird week that saw him crack 70 only once – a second-round 62 that was a very short-lived tie for the course record. He’s the best option over $10K – albeit a pretty expensive one – that isn’t named Rahm.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,600) – No more discounts for JT, but I love him in GPPs, where his T2G game and ability to make birdies could help him rise to the occasion. He made 66 of 68 putts inside 10 feet last week, but never seemed to follow up his opening round 63 with lights-out play. Perhaps he’s ready to do that in the second week of the playoffs, when the stakes are a little higher.

Tony Finau (DK $9,800) – I joked last week (and so did the Breakdown crew) about how “he’s not much of a threat to win,” but could be a great to help you win a GPP. Well, he won the damn thing – and that confidence boost is just what’s been holding him back in final rounds over the past few years. There’s no way I’m fading him after that gutsy performance.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Cameron Smith

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,300) – His distance and ability tot make putts seem tailored for this particular venue, and he shows up as second overall in my mixed model. While his inconsistency and preponderance to make bad decisions – and stupid bogeys – reared their ugly heads at Liberty National, he could dominate at Caves Valley, a venue where power and T2G precision are required. And I love the discount.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – We mentioned last week that he prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, and that he’s third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021. Perhaps this week he can put it all together and climb up the leaderboards if a few more putts go down early. A great GPP play with Top 3 upside.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – A few days after a broken putter self-sabotaged his final round and tanked a lot of the WinDaily readership’s lineups, we should probably go right back to the ell with Hovland, who’s a T2G monster and normally seems pretty even-keeled on the golf course. With no real course history to look at, he doesn’t lose any advantage that more experienced tour veterans players would normally have.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,900) – Scheffler seems almost mispriced considering his upside and the way he checks all the boxes this week at Caves Valley. He’s sixth overall on my model and will be in all my single-entry GPP builds and up to 40 or 50 percent of my lineups. I love his chances to get a win here. Go get some exposure to the tall 25-year-old shining star with the great T2G game.

Corey Conners (DK $8,600) – The Canadian ball-striking sensation checks in at 15thoverall in my rankings, his putting woes and weak Driving Distance rankings the only things holding him back from the top 10. I’ll be a little more careful with him this week, maybe limiting my GPP ownership and using him in some crafty cash builds.

Sam Burns (DK $8,300) – Last week we didn’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists, and while he didn’t do enough to help take down the large-field GPPs, he was T11 after three rounds at Liberty National and I love him again for that type of tournament this week. The T2G numbers aren’t excellent, but he’s got a bit of the Cameron Smith ability to bang it out there and clean things up by capitalizing on Par 5s and making a few more birdies than everybody else. He and Smith are actually right next to each other at Nos. 28 and 29 in my mixed model.

Paul Casey (DK $8,200) – Casey seems like the cash game play to Burns’ GPP analog, but I like him everywhere this week in a no-cut event at this discount price. The nicest guy on tour has the chops to live in the elite tier with the big boys in just about any tournament, and his proximity on approaches 200+ yards is one stat I really like.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,000) – I’m including Im here based on the detailed Breakdown that Sia, Joel and Spencer gave us this week – one of the things that got me interested in Finau last week. Im showed up 25th I my mixed model and while he has some momentum after a scrappy top 20, I was kind of on the fence until they touted him. The price is excellent and the upside is there on this golf course, where his T2G skills are at a premium.

Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – Still a great price on Lowry! We talked about his top 5 upside last week and he was right there until a less-than-stellar back nine. The Irishman ranked sixth in SG: T2G for the week at Liberty National and should be priced well over $8K. Take advantage of that disrespect by rostering him in 25-30% (or more) of your lineups.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,700) – He cracked the PGA Tour’s BMW Top 20 Power Rankings this week, which always provides a nice little glimpse of what could be some the chalkier PGA DFS plays for the week, but Sia really likes him and I’m intrigued by his excellent ball-striking and ability to hit good drives that aren’t that far back from the big boys.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Daniel Berger, Abraham Ancer, Webb Simpson Joaquin Niemann, Jason Kokrak (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,500) – Spencer likes Tringale this week and while I have harder time getting him right, it’s a fine time to go back to the well considering the veteran’s solid play over the past 36 rounds. I don’t love him most weeks, but he’s been consistent over the past four events (T14-T-26-T16 and T21 last week at Liberty National) and he can go really low some days.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,300) – Champ’s game has been rounding into better form and he’s exorcised some of the putting and short-game demons that plague his power-forward game. He’s gotten it done since a T11 at the John Deere Classic and his win at the 3M Open, which he capped with a bogey-free final round 66. Steer clear in cash games, but get some exposure in GPPs.

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,100) – Vegas is my favorite play in the low-$7K range because of his distance, OTT numbers and T2G metrics. In fact, he’s No. 13 in my model and the only $7K player in my top 15. I’ll be using him in my single-entry builds and a lot of GPPs. Sure, he might get chalky if we’re all sticking to our models and playing the optimals, but this is a truly great spot for him, especially with no cut and guaranteed four cracks at this gettable golf course.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,000) – We said last week that he really likes long golf courses and he ended up as both Sia’s Secret Weapon (SW) and my Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB), two low-ownership special Discord-exclusive perks that we divulge on Wednesday night for our premium subscribers. The T2G numbers are there and I think he’ll benefit from the smooth, fast Bentgrass greens this week as well.

Cameron Davis (DK $6,900) – Davis is only No. 32 in my mixed model, but I like the fact that he can plop one into the water, hit a rock and ricochet off a few things in the grandstands before landing 10 feet from the hole for an eventual eagle. Seriously – I like him in a no-cut event where he’ll have some leeway to spray it a bit and get back to the business of making birdies, where he’s eight in the field in BoB Gained.

Stewart Cink (DK $6,600) – Cink might end up being my BBB if his ownership is low enough, because no-cut events make it almost impossible to find non-chalky value under $7K and less than 5% ownership. So maybe no BBB this week, but I’ll have shares of Cink for his length off the tee and “veteran tour grinder” makeup. But he’ll be well under 10% for my overall exposure.

More value golfers to consider: Harold Varner, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Branden Grace, Marc Leishman (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Keith Mitchell (DK $6,500) – We can load up on long hitters like Mitchell a bit more this week, but I suspect he’ll be popular after his epically clutch finish at Liberty National to make the top 70. Plenty to like about his game heading into a venue that requires length OTT.

Ryan Palmer (DK $6,400) – Palmer is long enough, and he could fly under-the-radar this week, so I’ll be getting 10-15% exposure in my large-field GPPs. Perfect last piece for medium stars-and-scrubs builds. Maybe this is the week he surprises and sneaks into the top 15.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,200) – Kizzire is a little riskier but benefits from the no-cut format and the perks of DK scoring, where birdies and eagles (and streaks) are king. I worry about his ability to find fairways and greens, but there’s upside in his power-and-putting game.

Hudson Swafford (DK $6,000) – The super-risky Swafford only makes sense as a last piece on extreme stars-and-scrubs, but the DK scoring rules and guaranteed four rounds are his friend this week. We know he’s a dynamic player who can get really hot, go low and win tournaments when they are ripe for scoring.

Additional GPP punts: Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Wise, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge

3 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks: Northern Trust at Liberty National

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of top 125 golfers in FedEx Cup points
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
Stacked playoff field with lots on the line
The course: Liberty National (Rotating venue with Boston)
- Par 71: 7,410 yards – designed by Robert E. Cupp and Tom Kite
- Links-style except for greens – and right on the Hudson River in NJ/NY area
- Smaller but fast A-4 Bentgrass greens that really benefit guys who prefer that surface
- T2G efficiency required here
- Form seems to be important based on previous winners
- Over 31% of approach shots come from 200+ yards, but TOUR average is only around 23%
Defending champ: Dustin Johnson (-30 at TPC Boston)
2019 Champ (@ Liberty National): Patrick Reed (-16) over Abraham Ancer (-15)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass) Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,500) – The No. 1 player in the world hasn’t played much lately since he was forced to withdraw from the Olympics after another positive COVID test. But his win at the U.S. Open and T3 at Royal St. George’s are proof positive he’s the frontrunner in the playoffs, and his complete T2G game and masterful short game combine to check all the boxes here. With pricing up, I like him best for GPP, but if you can find a cash lineup with him that you like, I wouldn’t blow it up.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000) – According to the PGA Tour stats, DJ was 23.53 total strokes better than the field average last year at TPC Boston when he ran away with the Northern Trust at -30. It was the third time he had gained 20 or more strokes en route to victory, and the change of venue shouldn’t hurt his game. He’s eighth in this field at Proximity from approaches 200+ yards over his last 36 rounds, he putts better on Bentgrass, and he makes for a great GPP play this week.

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,800) – Only a handful of players have been better at the 450-500 yard Par 4s over the past 36 rounds (solid GPP options Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy are a couple of them), and none of them can putt like Spieth can. Normally I wouldn’t look Spieth’s way for a cash game build in a field this good, but Sia really sung his praises in the excellent WinDaily Breakdown video, and Jordan has had such a great 2021 that I think I’m using him in cash and single entry as well as GPP.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,800) – JT hasn’t put it all together in a while (his last win was at the Players and he had lackluster finishes in the most recent majors) but he’s shown an affinity for playoff golf in the past and he’s tops in the field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards in length. He was T12 here in 2019 and this is a good spot to jump back on the JT wagon in GPPs.

Also consider: Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Bryson DeChambeau (Cash), Viktor Hovland

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,400) – The freshly minted PGA Tour winner (WGC-FedEx St. Jude) was runner-up of this event at Liberty National in 2019, and he’s got to be brimming with confidence after the huge breakthrough in Memphis at TPC Southwind. Ancer is fourth overall in my mixed model and I’ll have exposure in my GPPs despite the inflated price this week.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,300) – Scheffler could be described as a decent putter, and that’s probably the weakest part of his game these days. He’s posted top 15 finishes in six of his last eight events and he thrives on long golf courses like this. There’s a bunch of golfers to like in this price range, but Scottie could be the sneakiest once again.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – While I have an aversion to Cantlay in PGS DFS and he had a really rough stretch earlier this year, there’s no denying that he’s played much better golf since the PGA Championship, when he finished T23 and won in his next start at the Memorial. He prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, is third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021 and he finished T12 here in 2019.

Harris English (DK $8,800) – English has been stellar over the past three months, winning the Travelers at TPC River Highlands, finishing solo third at the U.S. Open, and posting top 15s in five of his last seven tournaments. He’s coming off a solo fourth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and I can’t find a reason to dislike him at Liberty National, even if he ends up at a really popular play.

Patrick Reed (DK $8,600) – Reed won here in 2019, and in true Captain America form went 3-1-1 when the Presidents Cup was played at this venue in 2017. He missed the cut at the Open Championship and has had some trouble keeping the ball in the fairway lately, but he’s a brilliant playoff competitor and a great GPP pivot from the more popular players in this price range.

Adam Scott (DK $8,400) – Scott missed an easy birdie putt and lost in that epic six-man playoff a week ago after firing a five-under 65 in the final round of the Wyndham Championship, but his ascent up the FedEx cup standings was impressive enough for lots of golf writers to pick him to win this week. He has course history behind him, with a fifth-place finish in 2019 and a win in 2013.

Tony Finau (DK $8,200) – I’ve been burned many times by Finau but I’m adding him to my player pool based on Joel Schreck and Spencer Aguiar’s recommendation in the Breakdown. A closer look at his numbers shows he’s good at avoiding three-putts and his SG ARG numbers have improved. He’s not much of a threat to win, but he could be that value guy who finishes top 10 and helps you secure a GPP win.

Sam Burns (DK $8,000) – I haven’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists this week, but he’s showing up in my mixed model and he’s coming off a blistering 64 in the final round at TPC Southwind that got him int a playoff with Ancer. He’s awesome off the tee, can get really hot with the putter, and the fact that nobody’s talking about him make me love him for large-field GPPs.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7.800) – Hatton will be a lot chalkier than Burns, but the price is way too low for what he gives you on courses this length. He’s sprinkled in some bad performances with a few top 20s, and he’s No. 17 on my mixed model, in large part due to how well he handles the 200+ approaches and A-4 Bentgrass. He’s a solid option in all formats.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,700) – I had lots of Kokrak last week when he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship, but there wasn’t anything on the line then and I’m going back to the well this week with some exposure in GPPs. I don’t want to be one week off and have no shares, but I’m not going overboard.

Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash), Webb Simpson, Paul Casey (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, Ian Poulter, Russell Henley

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – What a great price on Lowry! The 2019 Open champ is 20th overall in my mixed model and checks most if not all of the boxes in our focus stat categories this week. The form is good, he’s solid on all types of golf courses, and he’s got top 5 upside.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – I’ve been overconfident with Tringale a few times in PGA DFS, but I really like mixing in a few shares of him this week in GPPs based on where he finishes in my mixed model (ninth overall) and his solid numbers on longer approaches.

Seamus Power (DK $7,000) – Power will likely garner some ownership at this price, so if you’re getting skittish you can pivot elsewhere in GPPs – you can follow Sia’s lead and work in a guy like Charley Hoffman. But Power has been playing much better golf lately and works as a low-cost option.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – He really likes long golf coursesand was one of the first names I noticed under $7K with good SG: T2G numbers in his last 14 rounds. His SG: APP numbers leave a bit to be desired, but he’s really good off the tee and he can make some long putts.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,900) – Schwartzel fares well in my model (No. 33 overall) and seems to step up his game in stiffer competition. He also overperforms on long courses and should fare well at Liberty National, as the overall layout seems to favor his game.

C.T. Pan (DK $6,600) – I’ve seen some folks throw out Aaron Wise as another golfer with this price to consider, but if I’m leaning contrarian here, I’d do it with a Bronze medalist who’s coming off four rounds in the 60s. Pan is a sneaky contrarian play on longer courses and I like his chances to make the cut and spike a Top 25.

More value golfers to consider: Kevin Streelman, Bubba Watson (GPP), Jason Day (GPP), Max Homa, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Talor Gooch, Brendan Todd, Chris Kirk, Pat Perez, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Aaron Wise (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Matt Wallace (DK $6,500) – He checks a few important boxes this week (450-500 yard Par 4s and overall performance on long courses) and he’s solid around the greens and in wind. Wallace almost cracks the Top 20 in my mixed model this week so I’ll be mixing him into two or three GPPS in my 20 max builds.

Luke List (DK $6,400) – I’m always drawn to List when he’s cheap, but he’s strictly GPP only because he can implode on the greens. He’s scary to roster, so keep your ownership reasonably low (under 10%).

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – Sia’s boy Hammerin’ Hank has a decent overall game and is a good ball striker. He offers plenty of value and should be a staple of stars-and-scrubs builds.

Additional GPP punts: K.H. Lee, Dylan Frittelli, Chez Reavie, Matt Kuchar, Doug Ghim, Harry Higgs

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got another no-cut event to cover in our PGA DFS contests for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, and our picks will help you green up those screens!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Strong field of 66 golfers, including 48 of the OWGR top 50
Back to Thursday morning lock
No cut event
The course: TPC Southwind (Memphis, TN)
- 7,200+ yards, Par 70
- Zoysia fairways and small Bermuda greens – both a little harder to hit than most courses
- Tree-lined course features lots of water in play – in the form of lakes, streams and ponds in a bucolic farm-like setting (there’s even a couple of silos!)
- Tough Par 3s and difficult finishing hole (Par 4, 461 yards alongside a water hazard)
- Mostly long Par 4s (450+) with some doglegs, and just two Par 5s – including one “must” birdie hole at No. 16
- All-around game is rewarded, as winners tend to be good throughout the bag
- Defending champion: Justin Thomas (-13); 2019 champ: Brooks Koepka (-16); 2018: Dustin Johnson (-19)
- Comps (similar layout/design): TPC River Highlands (Travelers), Harbour Town GC (RBC Heritage)
Course history shows some players tend to fare better here than others
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking; Birdie or Better %; SG: Off the Tee; SG: Around the Green; SG: Putting (Bermuda); Par 4s Gained (450-500), Opportunities Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Collin Morikawa (DK $11,000) – I’ll chalk up last week’s podium no-show to a bad putting week and the leveled playing field of a gettable Olympic course. This week, he’s on faster putting surfaces that seem to help better ball strikers and guys who flourish at majors, and he’ll rely on his game’s all-around brilliance over four days to contend for a WGC title. In this week’s must-see breakdown, Joel talks a little bit about how to pick your top-tier PGA DFS guys and how this is a week where the cream will rise to the top – favoring players like Morikawa.

Brooks Koepka (DK $10,600) – Koepka is one of a few golfers who play well at TPC Southwind and could walk away with the trophy this week, so we’ll have to mix in some shares of him in GPPs. I’m never too keen on using him in cash games, but this could be the week that I deploy him there and in a small- and large-field single-entry GPP contests banking on a top 5 finish – something he’s done a lot here. He’s already notched a win (2019), a T2 (2020) and a T2 in 2016 before TPC Southwind was a WGC event – and his form is solid with T4-T5-T6 in his last three tournaments.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,200) – With lots of ownership going to Koepka, DJ makes for a cheaper pivot in GPPs and certainly has the right skill set to get it done at TPC Southwind. My usual worries about putting are alleviated in the switch to the faster Bermuda greens, since it’s a little easier for him to compete with the better, more aggressive putters when he doesn’t have to worry about slamming in ten-footers.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – Like DJ, he’s a course horse and a fan of these putting surfaces, which – let’s be honest – has been the most glaring issue with JT’s game over the past few tournaments. Both he and JT are guys who like to get the line right and give it a good roll, and that’s rewarded here – as opposed to the bumps and bounces of Bentgrass and “pop-it-in” Poa. He’s another bargain PGA DFS GPP pivot given his upside, though there’s moderate risk if he doesn’t see many putts go in in the first two days.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,600) – Louis is on quite the heater, notching four second-place finishes in his last eight starts worldwide, including a solo second at the U.S. Open and T2 at the PGA Championship. He also finished T3 at the Open Championship and he likes this course – with T20-T6 in his two trips to Memphis. He’s a solid putter on any surface and this may be the best he’s hit the ball in his celebrated career.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Viktor Hovland (cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Daniel Berger (DK $9,200) – Berger has taken advantage of this venue in his four appearances at TPC Southwind, winning the FedEx St. Jude Classic twice and sharing runner-up honors in the WGC last year. He’s among the better PGA DFS values in the field when we consider form, course history and his superiority in target golf. Berger is a solid play in all formats and has winning upside despite the insanely strong field.

Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $8,800) – I’ll be rooting hard for Matty Fitz to get his first PGA Tour victory this week, and this golf course is a good place for that to happen. The English standout seems to thrive at this venue and on courses with similarly small Bermuda greens. With four guaranteed days for him to get hot and make some birdies, he should climb the leaderboard and be in contention come Sunday.

Webb Simpson (DK $8,500) – We have to like this price point for Simpson, who has struggled in 2021 but should benefit from a no-cut event on a Bermuda greens and a recent T19 at the Open Championship. He finished second here in 2019 and T12 in 2020, so it’s as good a place as any for him to get back in the swing of things.

Abraham Ancer (DK $8,300) – Ancer could be downright dangerous this week, as he finished T14 at the Olympics and has logged six top 10s among 15 official top 25s this season. He also plays well at WGC events, notching top 20s in his last six appearances in dating back to the 2019 WGC Match Play. I love getting him for all four rounds and seeing just how hot he can get with his pin-seeking approaches.

Corey Conners (DK $8,100) – Conners isn’t the best putter in the world and there’s always the risk of three-jacks on greens this fast – but he undoubtedly has the T2G chops to avoid the ubiquitous water trouble that threatens both tee balls and approach shot at TPC Southwind. I’d consider him a decent cog in balanced PGA DFS GPP builds but a longshot to win.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $8,000) – His ball-striking may still be along way from the days when he earned the “Fairway Jesus” sobriquet, but his T16 finish among some excellent competitors at the Olympics and fondness for the switch to Bermuda could mean good things for him in Memphis this week. I’m nowhere near “all-in” status with Tommy, but a low score on one of the first couple days could help propel him to a top 10 finish this week, so I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.

Will Zalatoris (DK $7,900) – Zalatoris is a relatively high-risk GPP wildcard this week, since there’s really no telling if his back is okay after the withdrawal at the Open Championship, and he hasn’t played this course before. Regardless, he’s a talented ball striker and he’s got four days (if his body holds up) to navigate the hazards and hard-to-hit greens at TPC Southwind. I’d steer clear in cash games and single-entry, but ownership should be low and I’m fine using him in 5-10% of GPPs.

Sungjae Im (DK $7,700) – I love Sungjae on Bermuda greens and I’m not deterred by the hectic schedule that had him competing for a medal in Tokyo just last week. He could be a super sneaky GPP play and possibly a solid staple for single-entry if you’re buying into his upside at this affordable price.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry, Cameron Smith (GPP), Harris English

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Brian Harman (DK $7,500) – Harman had been getting it done prior to his WD (undisclosed) at the 3M Open after tying for 19th at the Open Championship, earning top 20 finishes in four of his last five starts dating back to the Charles Schwab Challenge. Other than a missed cut at the PGA, his game has flourished in major championships and the tougher-field events in 2021.

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,300) – I like having Sergio on Bermuda for four days, since he’s got the ball-striking prowess to excel at TPC Southwind and avoid some of the water than could swallow up less experienced players. Since a T20 at Colonial, he’s notched four straight top 20s and finished T25 at the 3M Open, so he’s worth a look in all formats at this bargain price.

Billy Horschel (DK $7,100) –It’s been a spell since I’ve considered Horschel, probably because he has only played four tournaments since the start of June, and he wasn’t a PGA DFS factor in any of them (67th at the Memorial, a disappointing MC at U.S. Open, T54 at Scottish Open and T53 at Royal St. George’s). TPC Southwind, on the other hand, favors his game and has historically ben a get-right spot for the native Floridian, who favors Bermuda over the surfaces we’ve seen recently on tour. He’s a fine risk-reward GPP play this week.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – Value like this is sometimes difficult to find in no-cut events, but Poulter offers plenty of upside considering all the factors of pricing and performance in the focus stat categories. If he can stay out of trouble and avoid the big numbers, he’ll be a solid value over four days in Memphis, where he finished in eighth place in 2019 but faltered (T69) in 2020. Whether you need to include a guy like Poulter depends a lot on your roster construction, but I have a feeling I might end up using him a bit.

Kevin Kisner (DK $6,800) – TPC Southwind, on a cursory glance, really seems like another good spot for Kisner to post a Top 20 or better finish. The venue features small Bermuda greens and plenty of doglegs, making it comparable to venues where he’s done some of his best work on the PGA Tour (including Copperhead and Harbour Town). He’s finished T25 and T27 the past two years, and any improvement on that should work for the builds that include “Lil’ Kis” and his positive putting pedigree this year.

Phil Mickelson (DK $6,600) – Getting Phil at $6,600 is just too good to pass up given his record at TPC Southwind and familiarity with the venue. Sure, he may flake out and start three-putting or miss a bunch of fairways and be playing catch-up after a couple days, but he’s good enough to post a low number early and let his talents carry him the rest of the way. I’ll have exposure in GPPs, though I’m not forcing him into my builds as he’s more of a “last piece” flier.

Robert MacIntyre (DK $6,600) – Like Phil, this lefty has the overall game to flourish at this venue, even if he lacks the course history/experience to be a no-brainer value play. Bobby Mac is a risk since he finished T59 in the 2020 WGC-FedEx (his first and only try), but a string of solid finishes in 2021 may have given him added confidence heading back to Memphis this year.

More value golfers to consider: Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Adam Scott, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose (GPP), Matthew Wolff (GPP), Cameron Champ (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Ryan Palmer (DK $6,500) – Let’s start by referring to what Sia said in his Initial Picks article, where he touted Palmer as “the type of player that you simply wouldn’t take in a normal cut event” because of his form and the inherent risk you assume with the possibility of the dreaded “two days and done.” If he can post good scores in one or two rounds, that might be enough to return value in stars-and-scrubs builds.

Stewart Cink (DK $6,500) – It’s nice to see other WinDaily writers on the same punts as me, although that could mean elevated ownership, and some of our leverage could “Cink” if we invest a bit too much in good ol’ Stewie Kablooie this week. This is where I’ll stop having anything more than 15% ownership in my tournament entries and keep the remaining suggestions to one or two entries out of 20 in the big field GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Kevin Na, Lucas Glover, Garrick Higgo, Matt Jones, Jim Herman

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The Tokyo Olympics

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The Olympics are in full swing and so are the PGA DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, so we’re bringing you our picks to help find you some gold!

PGA DFS pricing for the Olympics is pretty tight this week – and we’ve already lost some big names to COVID, but there’s a path to victory if we’re using the right guys. Let’s get to it!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Top-heavy (10 of the world’s top 25) international Olympic field of 60 golfers
Early lock time: Wednesday, July 28 – 6:30 p.m. EST
No course history (except Japanese golfers, but we have some comps
No cut event
The course: Kasumigaseki Country Club (East Course)
- 7,400+ yards, Par 71 – Arnold Palmer/Tom Lehman design/consult
- Bentgrass Greens that should be soft/receptive from rain and humidity
- Course features little water that’s in play but plenty of bunkers (68)
- Wider fairways that a typical PGA event
- Long course with two 625+ yard Par 5s, three Pars 4s over 500 yards
- Comps (similar layout/design): Colonial CC, Firestone GC, Riviera CC, Quail Hollow, Shadow Creek, Congaree
- 2016 Defending Gold Medal champ: Justin Rose (N/A)
Overall form probably the most important “non-metric” we can look at
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking, SG: Off the Tee, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Sand Saves

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Collin Morikawa (DK $11,200) – The betting favorite in the Olympics, there’s no flaws to his game right now and the course conditions should keep him firing at flags and making birdies. He’s played well at just about all the course comps over the past couple of seasons and is the best golfer in the field. Fine for cash, GPP – any format you’re playing.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,900) – Thomas has not recorded a top 10 on the PGA Tour since his win at the Players Championship, but he’s got four rounds to learn the ropes of this venue and rise to the top of the leaderboard. I have a feeling he’ll be somewhere in the top 5 come Saturday evening, and I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,500) – A positive COVID test forced the Masters champion to withdraw from the Rocket Mortgage and kept him from traveling to Royal St. George’s for the Open Championship. Matsuyama has experience at this course and really wants to win gold for the host country. He also checks all the boxes this week as he’s top 25 on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, par-5 scoring and FedEx Cup points.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,300) – McIlroy has gained 63.8 strokes total over his past 36 rounds on Tom Fazio designs, and this course seems top be right up his alley. He’s entering this competition playing for Ireland and will be teeing it up alongside Morikawa and Sungjae Im on Wednesday. He’s a great way to start your more balanced teams if you’re fading Morikawa and JT.

Paul Casey (DK $9,500) – I considered writing up Patrick Reed, but think he’s more of a GPP play given the last-minute replacement of Bryson DeChambeau and his struggles off the tee recently. While the wider fairways should help Captain America, I prefer the savings we get with Casey, who fares well at no-cut events, finished T15 at the Open Championship and plays well on Fazio courses.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed (GPP), Shane Lowry

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,300) – Ancer seems like a relatively safe play in this price range as he’s a long hitter who’s exceptional off the tee and with his approaches. If he can stay out of the many bunkers that pepper this course, he should fare well enough to challenge for a medal.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,900) – The Man of Smoke and Mirrors is a big hitter who excels with his putter – a solid combination on a relatively unknown course where Smith should have the requisite tools to get hot and contend come the weekend. Among the 60 golfers in the field, only Schauffele and Alex Noren have been better with the flat stick over the past 24 rounds.

Corey Conners (DK $8,800) – Conners is fourth in the field for SG: OTT over the past 24 rounds and while there are plenty of golfers with more upside around the greens, I have a hard time seeing him finish outside the top 20 here this week. With a little luck and a hot putter, he could notch a top 10 finish.

Garrick Higgo (DK $8,300) – A super-talented hitter with a flair for the dramatic, Higgo gets another high-profile start in his young career with this appearance in Tokyo, where he’ll be representing South Africa in his quest for gold. A very intriguing GPP play who may make my single-entry lineup.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $8,000) – I really like the Canadians this week, albeit for different reasons. Whereas Conners gets the nod for his ball-striking, the form that Hughes has shown the last month or so is impressive. It’s very hard to argue against giving him a shot at this still-reduced price point.

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,800) – He’s had a bizarre 2020-21 season, but the upside is still there. Way back in January Kim fired a final-round 64 to win The American Express by one stroke over Patrick Cantlay, earning his third PGA Tour victory. This event means a lot, as he skipped the Open Championship to prepare for the Olympics, and a win here would mean he gets to avoid mandatory two-year military service in South Korea – a career obstacle that has hindered many golfers from the Land of the Morning Calm.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,700) – The Colombian is one of my favorite golfers for value and upside in this tough pricing algorithm, finishing T3 at one of our course comps (Colonial CC) earlier this year at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He’s fifth in this field for SG: Total on Fazio designs over the past 36 rounds and fourth in SG: Putting (on Bentgrass) over his past 24 rounds.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Guido Migliozzi, Thomas Pieters, Carlos Ortiz

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,400) – Vegas sports excellent SG:OTT numbers, which should help him tremendously on a golf course that seems to favor length a bit over driving accuracy. The no-cut format should help his chances.

Rikuya Hoshino (DK $7,300) – Hoshino is a Japanese golfer who finished T26 at the U.S. Open in June. Once we get down in this range, the options are limited, and his experience here is enough of an advantage for me to drop him in a few lineups.

Mito Pereira (DK $7,300) –The form has been great, as the Chilean sensation finished T5 (Barbasol) and T6 (3M Open) in consecutive PGA Tour events in July. If we start a GPP lineup with Munoz, Kim, Hoshino and Pereira, we still have $10K per golfer for the remaining two slots.

C.T. Pan (DK $7,100) – CT is playing for Chinese Taipei this week, and he’s got plenty of experience in stiff competition. His road to the 2016 Olympics was a long one, but he finished T30 – good enough for me to give him a look this time around as well.

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,800) – The last golfer I’ll consider in this range is Norlander, who ranks a distant fifth (behind Casey, Schauffele, Morikawa and Hovland) in the field for SG on Par 5s in the past 24 rounds. He’s a fine way to get some value in your lineups without sacrificing too much upside, since we know he can get it going on the scoring holes.

More value golfers for GPPs: Thomas Detry, Matthias Schwab, Ryan Fox, Rory Sabbatini, Anirban Lahiri

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Wu Ashun (DK $6,500) – He’s made the cut in nine of his last 10 EURO events, and while there’s no cut here, Ashun has the birdie-making upside to notch a Top 25 finish. He’s an unfamiliar name who could surprise in Tokyo.

Fabrizio Zanotti (DK $6,400) – Zanotti finished T15 at the 2016 Olympics in Rio, and he’s the only golfer from Paraguay in the field. Huis most recent finishes are a T65 at the Scottish Open and T33 in the Irish Open – solid considering the glut of unknowns in this price range.

Sepp Straka (DK $6,400) – The dynamic Straka should benefit from the layout and format – where one bad round won’t cost you the weekend and a chance at cashing. At just $6,400, I’ll have some shares.

Additional punts: Sami Valimaki, Jorge Campillo, Gunn Charoenkul

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The Open Championship

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

This week’s PGA DFS picks article should help you find some winning combinations and focus your player pool for the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Field of 156 golfers including the best players in the world
36-hole Cut: Top 70 and ties play the weekend
No 2020 tourney; Defending (2019) champion: Shane Lowry (-15)
The course: Royal St. George’s Golf Club (Sandwich, England)
- 7,268 yards, Par 70
- Traditional seaside venue that can be affected by drastic wind changes and weather
- Bentgrass greens
- Tough links style course with deep bunkers and some OB providing a challenge
- Some blind tee shots and plenty of humps and bumps that can send balls off track
- Just two par 5s and four Par 3s – so Par 70 specialists could fare well
- Length not that important, as most par 4s are in the 400-475 range
Wind and rain expected, with 20-25 MPH gusts blowing on Saturday and Sunday
Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, Par 70 (and links) performance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Despite the lack of a top 10 finish at the Open Championship (his best finish was a T11 at Royal Troon in 2016), Rahm enters the week as the betting favorite and highest priced PGA DFS golfer in the field. There’s no real weakness to his game; he currently leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring – and ranks second in SG: T2G. His ball-striking has been on point this season, he loves links courses and he’s in play for all formats this week.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,900) – I refuse to give up on Rory and think he’s a good GPP play this week in the wake of the missed cut at the Scottish Open – which he jumped into a little late because his wife and child are still stateside. He may end up being the lowest-owned golfer in the $10K+ range and that’s what we’re looking for since his upside is still in the trophy-hoisting territory. “Rors” is both familiar with this giant-killer venue (T25 here in 2011) and the elements that could stymie a large portion of the PGA DFS field.

Brooks Koepka ($10,700) – Because of his impressive history in majors (four wins in the past five years) and the Open Championship (three top 10s since 2015), Koepka isn’t cheap, but he’s a fine GPP play. The polarizing figure was a 13-year-old spectator in 2003 when Ben Curtis won at Royal St. George’s, and while he said Tuesday morning (in an interview that had the NYT writing about it) that while this isn’t his favorite British Open venue in the venerable rotation, there’s no reason to leave him off your builds with his uncanny ability to compete in the world’s biggest tournaments.

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – The former Open champion (2017 at Royal Birkdale) is impressive on links courses and has the requisite elements to his game is solid form heading into this week’s test. We have plenty of options in the $7,000-7,500 range this week if we’re rostering Rahm-Spieth to start, and if we’re fading Rahm there’s a great route to balanced builds that start with Spieth as the highest spend ($8K+ remining per golfer). I’ll be hoping to land around 25-40% ownership in GPPs.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,300) – There’s not much more to say about the former Open champion than what Sia said in his U.S. Open Initial picks piece and what I covered in the picks column leading into Torrey Pines, when he finished solo second after being edged out by Rahm. He’s not playing in the Olympics, so this tournament has to be an important one for him as he continues playing solid golf in the late summer/early autumn of his fantastic career. He’s a guy I love in basically all the majors for PGA DFS, but I know he’ll be popular this week.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – Hovland – the No. 14 golfer in the world – became the first Norwegian winner in the history of the European tour when he prevailed at the BMW International Open in Germany a couple weeks ago, and his steady play and positive attitude should help him navigate the inexorable bounces and bumps of Royal St. George’s. The only drawback is his last of experience, as this will be his Open Championship debut, and it’s one of those things that’s got Sia concerned, as he explains in the breakdown.

Patrick Reed ($8,800) – While I’m a little skeptical that Reed can endure the elements and win the Open Championship, he’s certainly in play at this low price because of his ability to finish in the top 15. The form isn’t great, and his accuracy could be a problem here, but the ironically nicknamed “Captain America” loves to play the villain and he’s a shrewd large-field GPP play with an elite short game.

Paul Casey (DK $8,600) – Casey disappointed with a T54 at this venue in 2011 (a third-round 78 the main culprit), and his Open Championship finishes have left a bit to be desired through the years. But he’s a much more consistent golfer these days and has six top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments, so I like his chances for a top 10 this week, especially at this relatively fair price.

Tony Finau (DK $8,400) – I’ve said “never again” after being burned by Terrible Tony many times, but the talent level is off the charts and the price is a reasonable one despite two straight MCs at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Finau has not missed a cut at the Open Championship in four tries, and three of those attempts have yielded Top 20 finishes (solo third in 2019, T9 in 2018, T18 in 2016). He probably circled this on the schedule the minute he trudged off the 18th green at Torrey Pines, and I will be surprised (and angry) if he sabotages my GPP lineups again this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $7,900) – As you may have noticed if you’re a regular reader of PGA DFS Picks, Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite golfers to roster in single-entry and all types of GPPs, and I’ll continue that approach this week at Royal St. George’s – a venue where he should thrive – despite the disappointment of coming off a playoff loss to Min Woo Lee at the Scottish Open. His best finish in the Open Championship was the most recent iteration in 2019 (T20), and I believe he’s ready to break through with a top 10 (or better) this time around – when distance is not as important (it’s even shorter than it was in 2011) and he can plot his way around the golf course. In fact, Fitzpatrick came here last year (after having been told that he wasn’t going to enjoy it because of the blind shots and uneven lies) shot 67 and loved the course.

Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – The defending champion is under $8K this week, and that alone puts him in play in all formats, even if he’s exceedingly popular. Lowry performs well in weather and wind, and he was the only player who didn’t collapse in the gale-force gusts that plagued the final round at Royal Portrush Golf Club in 2019. There’s plenty of PGA DFS upside in this price range, and both Fitzpatrick and Lowry make for fine core plays in all kinds of builds.

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,600) – His last Top 5 at a British Open came in 2016, but he finished T9 here in 2011. He’s far from a safe play and I wouldn’t touch him in cash games despite the low price, but he’s a great GPP option given his upside and the dynamic quality of game and ball-striking prowess. He’s had a hard time closing things out this season, with some good rounds giving way to PGA DFS tumbles over the weekend, but he’s in play at this venue in large-field GPPs.

Also consider: Collin Morikawa (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Francesco Molinari (DK $7,300) – The talented Italian won the Open Championship in 2018 and finished T11 in 2019 – impressive finishes that show he can handle links style courses with the best of them. He missed the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011, but a decade of additional experience in major championships should help him this week.

Harris English (DK $7,300) – English has piled up the top 10 finishes this season (seven), and he’s one of just five golfers to notch two wins on tour this season. In the focus stats/metrics, he checks some crucial boxes for Royal St. George’s, ranking eighth in SG:T2G and seventh in Bogey Avoidance over his past three tournaments. He’s also missed the weekend just once in five Open appearances and has made cuts in 13 consecutive majors – something that makes him a solid play for single-entry and cash games as well as large-field GPPs.

Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – Fowler is teeing it up in his 11th Open Championship, with only one MC at this event (and three finishes of T6 or better – including a T2 from 2014 and a T5 at Royal St. George’s in 2011. That level of experience is a big help, and he’s finally rounding into form after a rough stretch in late 2020/early 2021. The fan favorite has now secured a weekend pass in three of his last four starts (T8, T11, MC and T32) and the impressive T8 was at the year’s second major – the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.

Robert MacIntyre (DK $7,300) – MacIntyre is right there with the rest of the high-upside players at this price point, even if PGA Tour golf fans aren’t that familiar with his record. Bobby Mac impressed at the Royal Portrush in 2019 at his Open Championship (and major tournament) debut, concluding in difficult conditions with a final round 68 and eventual T6 finish. He’s now ranked No. 53 in the world, making the cut at five straight majors – a T12 at the Masters this April his best major finish since the 2019 Open. MacIntyre shot under par in all four rounds last week and posted a T18 at the Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open – a links with at least a passing resemblance to Royal St. George’s. Excluding a COVID-related withdrawal at the Irish Open recently, The Scotsman has made a remarkable 25 of his last 26 cuts worldwide and may even be viable in cash games this week.

Branden Grace (DK $7,200) – Grace is usually hit-or-miss in major championships, but he arrives sporting some good form due to some sparkling iron play over his last dozen or so rounds. He has a history of going low at the Open, dating back to his 62 in Round three Saturday at Royal Birkdale in 2017 – when he finished T6 with Koepka, Marc Leishman, Alex Noren and Matthew Southgate at -4. The 33-year-old South African also finished inside the top 20 at the Open Championship in 2015, and arrives at this week’s edition on the heels of two consecutive top seven finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T7 at the 2021 U.S. Open.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,200) – Since missing the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011 (which surely sticks in his craw), Poulter has a spotty history at the Open Championship with five MCs and three top 15s – a testament to his dynamic play and viability as a GPP play. His 2021 record is actually a lot more steady: Since the PGA Championship, he’s 6-for-6 with two top five finishes including T4 at the Scottish open this past week.

Alex Noren (DK $7,200) – Noren has a distinguished record at the Open Championship, finishing T11 with Rahm, JT, Molinari and Tom Lewis in 2019 and earning top 10s in 2017 and 2012. He’s also finished among the top 15 (including a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic) in two of the past three starts, sporting excellent T2G numbers in that stretch. I wouldn’t pencil him into all my single-entry lineups, but I’m willing to take as stab in the lower-fee SE and in all types of large-field GPPs.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,000) – Kuchar is my choice for sneaky veteran bargain play – especially on a course that’s not all about mashing and/or the traditional “target” golf that’s played on a lot of the modern stateside venues. He’s fared well at the open Championship in the past and finished solo second at Royal Birkdale in 2017. In fact, he’s made nine out of his last 10 cuts in this tournament (and eight straight), the only outlier being the 2011 edition at – you guessed it – Royal St. George’s. The revenge narrative is strong this week and Kuchar should be low-owned with Top 10 upside.

Lucas Herbert (DK $6,800) – The woefully mispriced Herbert won at the Irish Open two weeks ago and notched a T4 in Scotland last week, so he’s in fine form heading into the Open. The plucky Australian also finished inside the top 20 at a couple of relatively prestigious PGA Tour events – the Memorial and the Travelers. He’s now won a couple times in his past 23 starts worldwide and should offer plenty of value as you construct your builds this week.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,600) – Hey – it’s another cheap Lucas! Glover is coming off a huge win at the John Deere Classic, snapping a winning drought that lasted over 10 years, and he should be excited about playing a course where he posted his best-ever finish at the Open Championship – a T12 in 2011. Winning two weeks in a row and collecting just his second major championship is a tall order – no doubt – but he’s a risk-reward play that won’t cost you very much to roster.

More value golfers to consider: Phil Mickelson (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger (GPP), Thomas Detry, Matt Wallace, Russell Henley (GPP), Min Woo Lee, Corey Conners (GPP), Danny Willett, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Stewart Cink, Richard Bland, Adam Long (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Justin Harding (DK $6,500) – More of a single day (first-round?) showdown longshot, Justin Harding heads into the 2021 The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s Golf Club with insanely long (+35000) odds to win, but he’s in play due to the fact that he made the cut and finished 41st in his last appearance at this event in 2019, and he’s super cheap. I’m targeting him for 1/20 GPP entries.

Chris Kirk (DK $6,400) – Kirk made three of his last five cuts, but he’s 17-for-23 this season – decent for a golfer under $6,500. While he missed the cut during his last British Open appearance in 2016, he’s a much better golfer now and should be up to the challenge personally and professionally. Like Harding, I’ll find a place for him in 1/20 large-field GPP entries.

Johannes Veerman (DK $6,100) – Veerman posted a T3 at the Irish Open two weeks ago and is coming off a T8 at the Scottish Open, so the form is solid. He’s seemingly a fans of links-style courses and while he’s a virtual unknown who could boom or bust this week, the price is dirt cheap and he’s one of the better low-cost options in the $6K range – which we’ll need to peruse if we’re going full-on stars and scrubs. He might be my favorite play under $6,600, so I’m willing to click him into 5-10% of my large-field GPPs (and one or two of my 20-max entries).

Additional GPP punts: Sebastian Munoz, Carlos Ortiz, Marcus Armitage, Jason Scrivener, Sam Burns, Chan Kim

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $11,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $8,000 to $10,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $5,000 to $7,900):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

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